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The determination of the total carbon storage of peatlands is of high relevance in the context of climate-change mitigation efforts. This determination relies on data about stratigraphy and peat properties, which are conventionally collected by coring. Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) can support these point data by providing subsoil information in two-dimensional cross-sections. In this study, GPR and ERI were conducted at two groundwater-fed fen sites located in the temperate zone in north-east Germany. The fens of this region are embedded in low conductive glacial sand and are characterised by thick layers of gyttja, which can be either mineral or organic. The two study sites are representative of this region with respect to stratigraphy (total thickness, peat and gyttja types) and ecological conditions (pH-value, trophic condition). The aim of this study is to assess the suitability of GPR and ERI to detect stratigraphy and peat properties under these characteristic site conditions. Results show that GPR clearly detects the interfaces between (i) Carex and brown-moss peat, (ii) brown-moss peat and organic gyttja, (iii) organic- and mineral gyttja, and (iv) mineral gyttja and the parent material (glacial sand). These layers differ in bulk density and the related organic matter content. ERI, however, does not delineate these layers; rather it delineates regions of varying properties. At our base-rich site, pore fluid conductivity and cation.exchange capacity are the main factors that determine peat electrical conductivity (reverse of resistivity), whereas organic matter and water content are most influential at the more acidic site. Thus the correlation between peat properties and electrical conductivity are driven by site-specific conditions, which are mainly determined by the solute load in the groundwater at fens. When the total organic deposits exceed a thickness of 5 m, the depth of investigation by GPR is limited due to increasing attenuation. This is not a limiting factor for ERI, where the transition from organic deposits to glacial sand is visible at both sites. Due to these specific sensitivities, a combined application of GPR and ERI meets the demand for up-to-date information on carbon storage of peatlands, which is, moreover, very site-specific because of the inherent variety of ecological conditions and stratigraphy between peatlands in general and between fens and bogs in particular. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
We present an algorithm that performs sequentially one-dimensional inversion of subsurface magnetic permeability and electrical conductivity by using multi-configuration electromagnetic induction sensor data. The presented method is based on the conversion of the in-phase and out-of-phase data into effective magnetic permeability and electrical conductivity of the equivalent homogeneous half-space. In the case of small-offset systems, such as portable electromagnetic induction sensors, for which in-phase and out-of-phase data are moderately coupled, the effective half-space magnetic permeability and electrical conductivity can be inverted sequentially within an iterative scheme. We test and evaluate the proposed inversion strategy using synthetic and field examples. First, we apply it to synthetic data for some highly magnetic environments. Then, the method is tested on real field data acquired in a basaltic environment to image a formation of archaeological interest. These examples demonstrate that a joint interpretation of in-phase and out-of-phase data leads to a better characterisation of the subsurface in magnetic environments such as volcanic areas.
Das Wissen um die lokale Struktur von Seltenen Erden Elementen (SEE) in silikatischen und aluminosilikatischen Schmelzen ist von fundamentalem Interesse für die Geochemie der magmatischen Prozesse, speziell wenn es um ein umfassendes Verständnis der Verteilungsprozesse von SEE in magmatischen Systemen geht. Es ist allgemein akzeptiert, dass die SEE-Verteilungsprozesse von Temperatur, Druck, Sauerstofffugazität (im Fall von polyvalenten Kationen) und der Kristallchemie kontrolliert werden. Allerdings ist wenig über den Einfluss der Schmelzzusammensetzung selbst bekannt. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist, eine Beziehung zwischen der Variation der SEE-Verteilung mit der Schmelzzusammensetzung und der Koordinationschemie dieser SEE in der Schmelze zu schaffen.
Dazu wurden Schmelzzusammensetzungen von Prowatke und Klemme (2005), welche eine deutliche Änderung der Verteilungskoeffizienten zwischen Titanit und Schmelze ausschließlich als Funktion der Schmelzzusammensetzung zeigen, sowie haplogranitische bzw. haplobasaltische Schmelzzusammensetzungen als Vertreter magmatischer Systeme mit La, Gd, Yb und Y dotiert und als Glas synthetisiert. Die Schmelzen variierten systematisch im Aluminiumsättigungsindex (ASI), welcher bei den Prowatke und Klemme (2005) Zusammensetzungen einen Bereich von 0.115 bis 0.768, bei den haplogranitischen Zusammensetzungen einen Bereich von 0.935 bis 1.785 und bei den haplobasaltischen Zusammensetzungen einen Bereich von 0.368 bis 1.010 abdeckt. Zusätzlich wurden die haplogranitischen Zusammensetzungen mit 4 % H2O synthetisiert, um den Einfluss von Wasser auf die lokale Umgebung von SEE zu studieren. Um Informationen über die lokalen Struktur von Gd, Yb und Y zu erhalten wurde die Röntgenabsorptionsspektroskopie angewendet. Dabei liefert die Untersuchung der Feinstruktur mittels der EXAFS-Spektroskopie (engl. Extended X-Ray Absorption Fine Structure) quantitative Informationen über die lokale Umgebung, während RIXS (engl. resonant inelastic X-ray scattering), sowie die daraus extrahierte hoch aufgelöste Nahkantenstruktur, XANES (engl. X-ray absorption near edge structure) qualitative Informationen über mögliche Koordinationsänderungen von La, Gd und Yb in den Gläsern liefert. Um mögliche Unterschiede der lokalen Struktur oberhalb der Glastransformationstemperatur (TG) zur Raumtemperatur zu untersuchen, wurden exemplarisch Hochtemperatur Y-EXAFS Untersuchungen durchgeführt.
Für die Auswertung der EXAFS-Messungen wurde ein neu eingeführter Histogramm-Fit verwendet, der auch nicht-symmetrische bzw. nichtgaußförmige Paarverteilungsfunktionen beschreiben kann, wie sie bei einem hohen Grad der Polymerisierung bzw. bei hohen Temperaturen auftreten können. Die Y-EXAFS-Spektren für die Prowatke und Klemme (2005) Zusammensetzungen zeigen mit Zunahme des ASI, eine Zunahme der Asymmetrie und Breite der Y-O Paarverteilungsfunktion, welche sich in sich in der Änderung der Koordinationszahl von 6 nach 8 und einer Zunahme des Y-O Abstand um 0.13Å manifestiert. Ein ähnlicher Trend lässt sich auch für die Gd- und Yb-EXAFS-Spektren beobachten. Die hoch aufgelösten XANESSpektren für La, Gd und Yb zeigen, dass sich die strukturellen Unterschiede zumindest halb-quantitativ bestimmen lassen. Dies gilt insbesondere für Änderungen im mittleren Abstand zu den Sauerstoffatomen. Im Vergleich zur EXAFS-Spektroskopie liefert XANES jedoch keine Informationen über die Form und Breite von Paarverteilungsfunktionen. Die Hochtemperatur EXAFS-Untersuchungen von Y zeigen Änderungen der lokalen Struktur oberhalb der Glasübergangstemperatur an, welche sich vordergründig auf eine thermisch induzierte Erhöhung des mittleren Y-O Abstandes zurückführen lassen. Allerdings zeigt ein Vergleich der Y-O Abstände für Zusammensetzungen mit einem ASI von 0.115 bzw. 0.755, ermittelt bei Raumtemperatur und TG, dass der im Glas beobachtete strukturelle Unterschied entlang der Zusammensetzungsserie in der Schmelze noch stärker ausfallen kann, als bisher für die Gläser angenommen wurde.
Die direkte Korrelation der Verteilungsdaten von Prowatke und Klemme (2005) mit den strukturellen Änderungen der Schmelzen offenbart für Y eine lineare Korrelation, wohingegen Yb und Gd eine nicht lineare Beziehung zeigen. Aufgrund seines Ionenradius und seiner Ladung wird das 6-fach koordinierte SEE in den niedriger polymerisierten Schmelzen bevorzugt durch nicht-brückenbildende Sauerstoffatome koordiniert, um stabile Konfigurationen zu bilden. In den höher polymerisierten Schmelzen mit ASI-Werten in der Nähe von 1 ist 6-fache Koordination nicht möglich, da fast nur noch brückenbildende Sauerstoffatome zur Verfügung stehen. Die Überbindung von brückenbildenden Sauerstoffatomen um das SEE wird durch Erhöhung der Koordinationszahl und des mittleren SEE-O Abstandes ausgeglichen. Dies bedeutet eine energetisch günstigere Konfiguration in den stärker depolymerisierten Zusammensetzungen, aus welcher die beobachtete Variation des Verteilungskoeffizienten resultiert, welcher sich jedoch für jedes Element stark unterscheidet. Für die haplogranitischen und haplobasaltischen Zusammensetzungen wurde mit Zunahme der Polymerisierung auch eine Zunahme der Koordinationszahl und des durchschnittlichen Bindungsabstands, einhergehend mit der Zunahme der Schiefe und der Asymmetrie der Paarverteilungsfunktion, beobachtet. Dies impliziert, dass das jeweilige SEE mit Zunahme der Polymerisierung auch inkompatibler in diesen Zusammensetzungen wird. Weiterhin zeigt die Zugabe von Wasser, dass die Schmelzen depolymerisieren, was in einer symmetrischeren Paarverteilungsfunktion resultiert, wodurch die Kompatibilität wieder zunimmt.
Zusammenfassend zeigt sich, dass die Veränderungen der Schmelzzusammensetzungen in einer Änderung der Polymerisierung der Schmelzen resultieren, die dann einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die lokale Umgebung der SEE hat. Die strukturellen Änderungen lassen sich direkt mit Verteilungsdaten korrelieren, die Trends unterscheiden sich aber stark zwischen leichten, mittleren und schweren SEE. Allerdings konnte diese Studie zeigen, in welcher Größenordnung die Änderungen liegen müssen, um einen signifikanten Einfluss auf den Verteilungskoeffizenten zu haben. Weiterhin zeigt sich, dass der Einfluss der Schmelzzusammensetzung auf die Verteilung der Spurenelemente mit Zunahme der Polymerisierung steigt und daher nicht vernachlässigt werden darf.
Widespread landscape changes are presently observed in the Arctic and are most likely to
accelerate in the future, in particular in permafrost regions which are sensitive to climate warming. To assess current and future developments, it is crucial to understand past
environmental dynamics in these landscapes. Causes and interactions of environmental variability can hardly be resolved by instrumental records covering modern time scales. However, long-term
environmental variability is recorded in paleoenvironmental archives. Lake sediments are important archives that allow reconstruction of local limnogeological processes as well as past environmental changes driven directly or indirectly by climate dynamics. This study aims at
reconstructing Late Quaternary permafrost and thermokarst dynamics in central-eastern Beringia,
the terrestrial land mass connecting Eurasia and North America during glacial sea-level low stands. In order to investigate development, processes and influence of thermokarst dynamics, several sediment cores from extant lakes and drained lake basins were analyzed to answer the
following research questions:
1. When did permafrost degradation and thermokarst lake development take place and what were enhancing and inhibiting environmental factors?
2. What are the dominant processes during thermokarst lake development and how are
they reflected in proxy records?
3. How did, and still do, thermokarst dynamics contribute to the inventory and properties of organic matter in sediments and the carbon cycle?
Methods applied in this study are based upon a multi-proxy approach combining
sedimentological, geochemical, geochronological, and micropaleontological analyses, as well as
analyses of stable isotopes and hydrochemistry of pore-water and ice. Modern field observations of water quality and basin morphometrics complete the environmental investigations.
The investigated sediment cores reveal permafrost degradation and thermokarst dynamics on different time scales. The analysis of a sediment core from GG basin on the northern Seward
Peninsula (Alaska) shows prevalent terrestrial accumulation of yedoma throughout the Early to
Mid Wisconsin with intermediate wet conditions at around 44.5 to 41.5 ka BP. This first wetland
development was terminated by the accumulation of a 1-meter-thick airfall tephra most likely originating from the South Killeak Maar eruption at 42 ka BP. A depositional hiatus between 22.5 and 0.23 ka BP may indicate thermokarst lake formation in the surrounding of the site which forms a yedoma upland till today. The thermokarst lake forming GG basin initiated 230 ± 30 cal a
BP and drained in Spring 2005 AD. Four years after drainage the lake talik was still unfrozen below 268 cm depth.
A permafrost core from Mama Rhonda basin on the northern Seward Peninsula preserved a
full lacustrine record including several lake phases. The first lake generation developed at 11.8 cal ka BP during the Lateglacial-Early Holocene transition; its old basin (Grandma Rhonda) is still partially preserved at the southern margin of the study basin. Around 9.0 cal ka BP a shallow and more dynamic thermokarst lake developed with actively eroding shorelines and potentially intermediate shallow water or wetland phases (Mama Rhonda). Mama Rhonda lake drainage at 1.1 cal ka BP was followed by gradual accumulation of terrestrial peat and top-down refreezing of the lake talik. A significant lower organic carbon content was measured in Grandma Rhonda deposits (mean TOC of 2.5 wt%) than in Mama Rhonda deposits (mean TOC of 7.9 wt%) highlighting the impact of thermokarst dynamics on biogeochemical cycling in different lake generations by thawing and mobilization of organic carbon into the lake system.
Proximal and distal sediment cores from Peatball Lake on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska revealed young thermokarst dynamics since about 1,400 years along a depositional gradient based on reconstructions from shoreline expansion rates and absolute dating results. After its initiation as a remnant pond of a previous drained lake basin, a rapidly deepening lake with increasing oxygenation of the water column is evident from laminated sediments, and higher Fe/Ti and Fe/S ratios in the sediment. The sediment record archived characterizing shifts in depositional regimes and sediment sources from upland deposits and re-deposited sediments from drained thaw lake basins depending on the gradually changing shoreline configuration. These changes are evident from alternating organic inputs into the lake system which highlights the potential for thermokarst lakes to recycle old carbon from degrading permafrost deposits of its catchment.
The lake sediment record from Herschel Island in the Yukon (Canada) covers the full Holocene period. After its initiation as a thermokarst lake at 11.7 cal ka BP and intense thermokarst activity until 10.0 cal ka BP, the steady sedimentation was interrupted by a depositional hiatus at 1.6 cal ka BP which likely resulted from lake drainage or allochthonous slumping due to collapsing shore lines. The specific setting of the lake on a push moraine composed of marine deposits is reflected in the sedimentary record. Freshening of the maturing lake is indicated by decreasing electrical conductivity in pore-water. Alternation of marine to freshwater ostracods and foraminifera confirms decreasing salinity as well but also reflects episodical re-deposition of allochthonous marine sediments.
Based on permafrost and lacustrine sediment records, this thesis shows examples of the Late Quaternary evolution of typical Arctic permafrost landscapes in central-eastern Beringia and the complex interaction of local disturbance processes, regional environmental dynamics and global climate patterns. This study confirms that thermokarst lakes are important agents of organic matter recycling in complex and continuously changing landscapes.
The humid tropics are the region with the highest rate of land-cover change worldwide. Especially prevalent is the deforestation of old-growth tropical forests to create space for cattle pastures and soybean fields.
The regional water cycle is influenced by vegetation cover in various ways. Especially evapotranspiration considerably contributes to water vapor content in the lower atmosphere. Besides active transpiration by plants, evaporation from wetted plant surfaces further known as interception loss is an important supply of water vapor. Changes in interception loss due to change in land cover and the related consequences on the regional water cycle in the humid tropics of Latin America are the research focus of my thesis. (1) In an experimental setup I assess differences in interception loss between an old-growth tropical forest and a soybean plantation. (2) In a modeling study, I examine interception losses of these two vegetation types compared to a younger secondary forest with the use of the Gash interception model, including an uncertainty analysis for the estimation of the necessary model parameters. (3) Studying the water balance of a 192-km² catchment I disentangle the influences of changes in land cover and climatic factors on interception loss.
The three different research sites in my thesis represent a currently typical spectrum for land-cover changes in Latin America. In the first example I study the consequences of deforestation of transitional forest, which forms the transition from the Brazilian tree savanna (cerrado) to tropical rain forest, for the establishment of soybean fields in the southern Amazon basin. The second study site is a young secondary forest within the “Agua Salud” project area in Panama as an example of reforestation of former pastures. The third study site is the Cirí Grande river catchment which comprises a mixture of young and old forests as well as pastures, which is typical for the southern sub-catchments of the Panama Canal.
The experimental approach consists of the indirect estimation of interception loss by measuring throughfall and stem flow. For the first experimental study I measured throughfall as well as stem flow manually. Measurements of the leaf area index of the two land covers do not show distinct differences; hence it could not serve as an explanation for the differences in the measured interception loss. The considerably higher interception loss at the soybean field is attributed to a possible underestimation of stemflow but also to the stronger ventilation within the well-structured plant rows causing higher evaporation rates. This situation is valid only for two months of the rainy season, when soybean plants are fully developed. In the annual balance evapotranspiration at the soybean site is clearly less than at the forest site, accelerating the development of fast runoff components and consequently discharge. In the medium term, a reduction of water availability in the study area can be expected.
For the modeling study, throughfall in a young secondary forest is sampled automatically. The resulting temporally high-resolution dataset allows the distinction between different precipitation and interception events. The core of this study is the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the Gash interception model parameters and the consequences for its results. Canopy storage capacity plays a key role for the model and parameter uncertainty. With increasing storage capacity uncertainty in parameter delineation also increases. Evaporation rate as the driving component of the interception process incorporates in this context the largest parameter uncertainty. Depending on the selected method for parameter estimation, parameter values may vary tremendously.
In the third study, I analyze the influence of interception loss on the water balance of the Cirí Grande catchment, incorporating the interlinked effects of temperature, precipitation and changes of the land use mosaic using the SWAT (soil water assessment tool) model. Constructing several land-cover scenarios I assess their influence on the catchment’s discharge. The results show that land-cover change exerts only a small influence on annual discharge in the Cirí Grande catchment whereas an increase in temperature markedly influences evapotranspiration. The temperature-induced larger transpiration and interception loss balances the simultaneous increase in annual precipitation, such that the resulting changes in annual discharge are negligible.
The results of the three studies show the considerable effect of land cover on interception. However, the magnitude of this effect can be masked by changes in local conditions, especially by an increase in temperature. Hence, the results cannot be transferred easily between the different study sites. For modeling purposes, this means that measurements of vegetation characteristics as well as interception loss at the respective sites are indispensable.
Understanding the role of natural climate variability under the pressure of human induced changes of climate and landscapes, is crucial to improve future projections and adaption strategies. This doctoral thesis aims to reconstruct Holocene climate and environmental changes in NE Germany based on annually laminated lake sediments. The work contributes to the ICLEA project (Integrated CLimate and Landscape Evolution Analyses). ICLEA intends to compare multiple high-resolution proxy records with independent chronologies from the N central European lowlands, in order to disentangle the impact of climate change and human land use on landscape development during the Lateglacial and Holocene. In this respect, two study sites in NE Germany are investigated in this doctoral project, Lake Tiefer See and palaeolake Wukenfurche. While both sediment records are studied with a combination of high-resolution sediment microfacies and geochemical analyses (e.g. µ-XRF, carbon geochemistry and stable isotopes), detailed proxy understanding mainly focused on the continuous 7.7 m long sediment core from Lake Tiefer See covering the last ~6000 years. Three main objectives are pursued at Lake Tiefer See: (1) to perform a reliable and independent chronology, (2) to establish microfacies and geochemical proxies as indicators for climate and environmental changes, and (3) to trace the effects of climate variability and human activity on sediment deposition.
Addressing the first aim, a reliable chronology of Lake Tiefer See is compiled by using a multiple-dating concept. Varve counting and tephra findings form the chronological framework for the last ~6000 years. The good agreement with independent radiocarbon dates of terrestrial plant remains verifies the robustness of the age model. The resulting reliable and independent chronology of Lake Tiefer See and, additionally, the identification of nine tephras provide a valuable base for detailed comparison and synchronization of the Lake Tiefer See data set with other climate records. The sediment profile of Lake Tiefer See exhibits striking alternations between well-varved and non-varved sediment intervals. The combination of microfacies, geochemical and microfossil (i.e. Cladocera and diatom) analyses indicates that these changes of varve preservation are caused by variations of lake circulation in Lake Tiefer See. An exception is the well-varved sediment deposited since AD 1924, which is mainly influenced by human-induced lake eutrophication. Well-varved intervals before the 20th century are considered to reflect phases of reduced lake circulation and, consequently, stronger anoxic conditions. Instead, non-varved intervals indicate increased lake circulation in Lake Tiefer See, leading to more oxygenated conditions at the lake ground. Furthermore, lake circulation is not only influencing sediment deposition, but also geochemical processes in the lake. As, for example, the proxy meaning of δ13COM varies in time in response to changes of the oxygen regime in the lake hypolinion. During reduced lake circulation and stronger anoxic conditions δ13COM is influenced by microbial carbon cycling. In contrast, organic matter degradation controls δ13COM during phases of intensified lake circulation and more oxygenated conditions. The varve preservation indicates an increasing trend of lake circulation at Lake Tiefer See after ~4000 cal a BP. This trend is superimposed by decadal to centennial scale variability of lake circulation intensity. Comparison to other records in Central Europe suggests that the long-term trend is probably related to gradual changes in Northern Hemisphere orbital forcing, which induced colder and windier conditions in Central Europe and, therefore, reinforced lake circulation. Decadal to centennial scale periods of increased lake circulation coincide with settlement phases at Lake Tiefer See, as inferred from pollen data of the same sediment record. Deforestation reduced the wind shelter of the lake, which probably increased the sensitivity of lake circulation to wind stress. However, results of this thesis also suggest that several of these phases of increased lake circulation are additionally reinforced by climate changes. A first indication is provided by the comparison to the Baltic Sea record, which shows striking correspondence between major non-varved intervals at Lake Tiefer See and bioturbated sediments in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, a preliminary comparison to the ICLEA study site Lake Czechowskie (N central Poland) shows a coincidence of at least three phases of increased lake circulation in both lakes, which concur with periods of known climate changes (2.8 ka event, ’Migration Period’ and ’Little Ice Age’). These results suggest an additional over-regional climate forcing also on short term increased of lake circulation in Lake Tiefer See.
In summary, the results of this thesis suggest that lake circulation at Lake Tiefer See is driven by a combination of long-term and short-term climate changes as well as of anthropogenic deforestation phases. Furthermore, the lake circulation drives geochemical cycles in the lake affecting the meaning of proxy data. Therefore, the work presented here expands the knowledge of climate and environmental variability in NE Germany. Furthermore, the integration of the Lake Tiefer See multi-proxy record in a regional comparison with another ICLEA side, Lake Czechowskie, enabled to better decipher climate changes and human impact on the lake system. These first results suggest a huge potential for further detailed regional comparisons to better understand palaeoclimate dynamics in N central Europe.
Ecosystems' exposure to climate change - Modeling as support for nature conservation management
(2016)
Over the past decades, rapid and constant advances have motivated GNSS technology to approach the ability to monitor transient ground motions with mm to cm accuracy in real-time. As a result, the potential of using real-time GNSS for natural hazards prediction and early warning has been exploited intensively in recent years, e.g., landslides and volcanic eruptions monitoring. Of particular note, compared with traditional seismic instruments, GNSS does not saturate or tilt in terms of co-seismic displacement retrieving, which makes it especially valuable for earthquake and earthquake induced tsunami early warning. In this thesis, we focus on the application of real-time GNSS to fast seismic source inversion and tsunami early warning.
Firstly, we present a new approach to get precise co-seismic displacements using cost effective single-frequency receivers. As is well known, with regard to high precision positioning, the main obstacle for single-frequency GPS receiver is ionospheric delay. Considering that over a few minutes, the change of ionospheric delay is almost linear, we constructed a linear model for each satellite to predict ionospheric delay. The effectiveness of this method has been validated by an out-door experiment and 2011 Tohoku event, which confirms feasibility of using dense GPS networks for geo-hazard early warning at an affordable cost.
Secondly, we extended temporal point positioning from GPS-only to GPS/GLONASS and assessed the potential benefits of multi-GNSS for co-seismic displacement determination. Out-door experiments reveal that when observations are conducted in an adversary environment, adding a couple of GLONASS satellites could provide more reliable results. The case study of 2015 Illapel Mw 8.3 earthquake shows that the biases between co-seismic displacements derived from GPS-only and GPS/GLONASS vary from station to station, and could be up to 2 cm in horizontal direction and almost 3 cm in vertical direction. Furthermore, slips inverted from GPS/GLONASS co-seismic displacements using a layered crust structure on a curved plane are shallower and larger for the Illapel event.
Thirdly, we tested different inversion tools and discussed the uncertainties of using real-time GNSS for tsunami early warning. To be exact, centroid moment tensor inversion, uniform slip inversion using a single Okada fault and distributed slip inversion in layered crust on a curved plane were conducted using co-seismic displacements recorded during 2014 Pisagua earthquake. While the inversion results give similar magnitude and the rupture center, there are significant differences in depth, strike, dip and rake angles, which lead to different tsunami propagation scenarios. Even though, resulting tsunami forecasting along the Chilean coast is close to each other for all three models.
Finally, based on the fact that the positioning performance of BDS is now equivalent to GPS in Asia-Pacific area and Manila subduction zone has been identified as a zone of potential tsunami hazard, we suggested a conceptual BDS/GPS network for tsunami early warning in South China Sea. Numerical simulations with two earthquakes (Mw 8.0 and Mw 7.5) and induced tsunamis demonstrate the viability of this network. In addition, the advantage of BDS/GPS over a single GNSS system by source inversion grows with decreasing earthquake magnitudes.
The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m(max) is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event, the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4): 1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m(max) is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating mmax from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.
In this study, we investigated the scale sizes of equatorial plasma irregularities (EPIs) using measurements from the Swarm satellites during its early mission and final constellation phases. We found that with longitudinal separation between Swarm satellites larger than 0.4°, no significant correlation was found any more. This result suggests that EPI structures include plasma density scale sizes less than 44 km in the zonal direction. During the Swarm earlier mission phase, clearly better EPI correlations are obtained in the northern hemisphere, implying more fragmented irregularities in the southern hemisphere where the ambient magnetic field is low. The previously reported inverted-C shell structure of EPIs is generally confirmed by the Swarm observations in the northern hemisphere, but with various tilt angles. From the Swarm spacecrafts with zonal separations of about 150 km, we conclude that larger zonal scale sizes of irregularities exist during the early evening hours (around 1900 LT).
The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171 km(2) in size and cover different climate zones. 15 regional climate model outputs and 8 different statistical downscaling methods, which are broadly categorized as change factor and bias correction based methods, were used for the comparative analyses. Different hydrological models were implemented in different catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where the flooding is mainly caused by spring/summer snowmelt, the downscaling methods project a decrease in the extreme flows in three of the four catchments considered. A major portion of the variability in the projected changes in the extreme flow indices is attributable to the variability of the climate model ensemble, although the statistical downscaling methods contribute 35-60% of the total variance. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
There is increasing evidence for recent changes in the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation and in the number of days with snow cover in many parts of Norway. The question arises as to whether these changes are also discernable with respect to their impacts on the magnitude and frequency of flooding and on the processes producing high flows. In this study, we tested up to 211 catchments for trends in peak flow discharge series by applying the Mann-Kendall test and Poisson regression for three different time periods (1962-2012, 1972-2012, 1982-2012). Field-significance was tested using a bootstrap approach. Over threshold discharge events were classified into rainfall vs. snowmelt dominated floods, based on a simple water balance approach utilizing a nationwide 1 x 1 km(2) gridded data set with daily observed rainfall and simulated snowmelt data. Results suggest that trends in flood frequency are more pronounced than trends in flood magnitude and are more spatially consistent with observed changes in the hydrometeorological drivers. Increasing flood frequencies in southern and western Norway are mainly due to positive trends in the frequency of rainfall dominated events, while decreasing flood frequencies in northern Norway are mainly the result of negative trends in the frequency of snowmelt dominated floods. Negative trends in flood magnitude are found more often than positive trends, and the regional patterns of significant trends reflect differences in the flood generating processes (FGPs). The results illustrate the benefit of distinguishing FGPs rather than simply applying seasonal analyses. The results further suggest that rainfall has generally gained an increasing importance for the generation of floods in Norway, while the role of snowmelt has been decreasing and the timing of snowmelt dominated floods has become earlier. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The 11 July 1889 Chilik earthquake (M-w 8.0-8.3) forms part of a remarkable sequence of large earthquakes in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in the northern Tien Shan. Despite its importance, the source of the 1889 earthquake remains unknown, though the macroseismic epicenter is sited in the Chilik valley, similar to 100 km southeast of Almaty, Kazakhstan (similar to 2 million population). Several short fault segments that have been inferred to have ruptured in 1889 are too short on their own to account for the estimated magnitude. In this paper we perform detailed surveying and trenching of the similar to 30 km long Saty fault, one of the previously inferred sources, and find that it was formed in a single earthquake within the last 700 years, involving surface slip of up to 10 m. The scarp-forming event, likely to be the 1889 earthquake, was the only surface-rupturing event for at least 5000 years and potentially for much longer. From satellite imagery we extend the mapped length of fresh scarps within the 1889 epicentral zone to a total of similar to 175 km, which we also suggest as candidate ruptures from the 1889 earthquake. The 175 km of rupture involves conjugate oblique left-lateral and right-lateral slip on three separate faults, with step overs of several kilometers between them. All three faults were essentially invisible in the Holocene geomorphology prior to the last slip. The recurrence interval between large earthquakes on any of these faults, and presumably on other faults of the Tien Shan, may be longer than the timescale over which the landscape is reset, providing a challenge for delineating sources of future hazard.
Decreasing groundwater levels in many parts of Germany and decreasing low flows in Central Europe have created a need for adaptation measures to stabilize the water balance and to increase low flows. The objective of our study was to estimate the impact of ditch water level management on stream-aquifer interactions in small lowland catchments of the mid-latitudes. The water balance of a ditch-irrigated area and fluxes between the subsurface and the adjacent stream were modeled for three runoff recession periods using the Hydrus-2D software package. The results showed that the subsurface flow to the stream was closely related to the difference between the water level in the ditch system and the stream. Evapotranspiration during the growing season additionally reduced base flow. It was crucial to stop irrigation during a recession period to decrease water withdrawal from the stream and enhance the base flow by draining the irrigated area. Mean fluxes to the stream were between 0.04 and 0.64 ls(-1) for the first 20 days of the low-flow periods. This only slightly increased the flow in the stream, whose mean was 57 ls(-1) during the period with the lowest flows. Larger areas would be necessary to effectively increase flows in mesoscale catchments.
Subsurface microbial communities undertake many terminal electron-accepting processes, often simultaneously. Using a tritium-based assay, we measured the potential hydrogen oxidation catalyzed by hydrogenase enzymes in several subsurface sedimentary environments (Lake Van, Barents Sea, Equatorial Pacific, and Gulf of Mexico) with different predominant electron-acceptors. Hydrogenases constitute a diverse family of enzymes expressed by microorganisms that utilize molecular hydrogen as a metabolic substrate, product, or intermediate. The assay reveals the potential for utilizing molecular hydrogen and allows qualitative detection of microbial activity irrespective of the predominant electron-accepting process. Because the method only requires samples frozen immediately after recovery, the assay can be used for identifying microbial activity in subsurface ecosystems without the need to preserve live material. We measured potential hydrogen oxidation rates in all samples from multiple depths at several sites that collectively span a wide range of environmental conditions and biogeochemical zones. Potential activity normalized to total cell abundance ranges over five orders of magnitude and varies, dependent upon the predominant terminal electron acceptor. Lowest per-cell potential rates characterize the zone of nitrate reduction and highest per-cell potential rates occur in the methanogenic zone. Possible reasons for this relationship to predominant electron acceptor include (i) increasing importance of fermentation in successively deeper biogeochemical zones and (ii) adaptation of H(2)ases to successively higher concentrations of H-2 in successively deeper zones.
The advantages of remote sensing using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are a high spatial resolution of images, temporal flexibility and narrow-band spectral data from different wavelengths domains. This enables the detection of spatio-temporal dynamics of environmental variables, like plant-related carbon dynamics in agricultural landscapes. In this paper, we quantify spatial patterns of fresh phytomass and related carbon (C) export using imagery captured by a 12-band multispectral camera mounted on the fixed wing UAV Carolo P360. The study was performed in 2014 at the experimental area CarboZALF-D in NE Germany. From radiometrically corrected and calibrated images of lucerne (Medicago sativa), the performance of four commonly used vegetation indices (VIs) was tested using band combinations of six near-infrared bands. The highest correlation between ground-based measurements of fresh phytomass of lucerne and VIs was obtained for the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) using near-infrared band b(899). The resulting map was transformed into dry phytomass and finally upscaled to total C export by harvest. The observed spatial variability at field- and plot-scale could be attributed to small-scale soil heterogeneity in part.
Effects of data and model simplification on the results of a wetland water resource management model
(2016)
This paper presents the development of a wetland water balance model for use in a large river basin with many different wetlands. The basic model was primarily developed for a single wetland with a complex water management system involving large amounts of specialized input data and water management details. The aim was to simplify the model structure and to use only commonly available data as input for the model, with the least possible loss of accuracy. Results from different variants of the model and data adaptation were tested against results from a detailed model. This shows that using commonly available data and unifying and simplifying the input data is tolerable up to a certain level. The simplification of the model has greater effects on the evaluated water balance components than the data adaptation. Because this simplification was necessary for large-scale use, we suggest that, for reasons of comparability, simpler models should always be applied with uniform data bases for large regions, though these should only be moderately simplified. Further, we recommend using these simplified models only for large-scale comparisons and using more specific, detailed models for investigations on smaller scales.
The hydrological budget of a region is determined based on the horizontal and vertical water fluxes acting in both inward and outward directions. These integrated water fluxes vary, altering the total water storage and consequently the gravitational force of the region. The time-dependent gravitational field can be observed through the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravimetric satellite mission, provided that the mass variation is above the sensitivity of GRACE. This study evaluates mass changes in prominent reservoir regions through three independent approaches viz. fluxes, storages, and gravity, by combining remote sensing products, in-situ data and hydrological model outputs using WaterGAP Global Hydrological Model (WGHM) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The results show that the dynamics revealed by the GRACE signal can be better explored by a hybrid method, which combines remote sensing-based reservoir volume estimates with hydrological model outputs, than by exclusive model-based storage estimates. For the given arid/ semi-arid regions, GLDAS based storage estimations perform better than WGHM.
Classification of clouds, cirrus, snow, shadows and clear sky areas is a crucial step in the pre-processing of optical remote sensing images and is a valuable input for their atmospheric correction. The Multi-Spectral Imager on board the Sentinel-2's of the Copernicus program offers optimized bands for this task and delivers unprecedented amounts of data regarding spatial sampling, global coverage, spectral coverage, and repetition rate. Efficient algorithms are needed to process, or possibly reprocess, those big amounts of data. Techniques based on top-of-atmosphere reflectance spectra for single-pixels without exploitation of external data or spatial context offer the largest potential for parallel data processing and highly optimized processing throughput. Such algorithms can be seen as a baseline for possible trade-offs in processing performance when the application of more sophisticated methods is discussed. We present several ready-to-use classification algorithms which are all based on a publicly available database of manually classified Sentinel-2A images. These algorithms are based on commonly used and newly developed machine learning techniques which drastically reduce the amount of time needed to update the algorithms when new images are added to the database. Several ready-to-use decision trees are presented which allow to correctly label about 91% of the spectra within a validation dataset. While decision trees are simple to implement and easy to understand, they offer only limited classification skill. It improves to 98% when the presented algorithm based on the classical Bayesian method is applied. This method has only recently been used for this task and shows excellent performance concerning classification skill and processing performance. A comparison of the presented algorithms with other commonly used techniques such as random forests, stochastic gradient descent, or support vector machines is also given. Especially random forests and support vector machines show similar classification skill as the classical Bayesian method.
Observed recent and expected future increases in frequency and intensity of climatic extremes in central Europe may pose critical challenges for domestic tree species. Continuous dendrometer recordings provide a valuable source of information on tree stem radius variations, offering the possibility to study a tree's response to environmental influences at a high temporal resolution. In this study, we analyze stem radius variations (SRV) of three domestic tree species (beech, oak, and pine) from 2012 to 2014. We use the novel statistical approach of event coincidence analysis (ECA) to investigate the simultaneous occurrence of extreme daily weather conditions and extreme SRVs, where extremes are defined with respect to the common values at a given phase of the annual growth period. Besides defining extreme events based on individual meteorological variables, we additionally introduce conditional and joint ECA as new multivariate extensions of the original methodology and apply them for testing 105 different combinations of variables regarding their impact on SRV extremes. Our results reveal a strong susceptibility of all three species to the extremes of several meteorological variables. Yet, the inter-species differences regarding their response to the meteorological extremes are comparatively low. The obtained results provide a thorough extension of previous correlation-based studies by emphasizing on the timings of climatic extremes only. We suggest that the employed methodological approach should be further promoted in forest research regarding the investigation of tree responses to changing environmental conditions.
Abrupt climate changes and fluctuations over short time scales are superimposed on long-term climate changes. Understanding rapid climate fluctuations at the decadal time scale over the past millennium will enhance our understanding of patterns of climate variability and aid in forecasting climate changes in the future. In this study, climate changes on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past millennium were determined from a 4.82-m-long sediment core from Basomtso Lake. At the centennial time scale, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Little Ice Age (LIA) and Current Warm Period (CWP) are distinct in the Basomtso region. Rapid climate fluctuations inferred from five episodes with higher sediment input and likely warmer conditions, as well as seven episodes with lower sediment input and likely colder conditions, were well preserved in our record. These episodes with higher and lower sediment input are characterized by abrupt climate changes and short time durations. Spectral analysis indicates that the climate variations at the centennial scale on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are influenced by solar activity during the past millennium.
Subsurface water flows play a key role in the distribution of water and solutes and thereby in the water availability for plants. However, the characterization of different flow processes (i.e.matrix and preferential flow), the frequency and factors that cause them, is relatively rare. This characterization enables a better understanding of spatio-temporal variability of water resources and allows for the design of models to be improved. Using a method based on the time derivative of soil moisture variation known as maximum wetting slope, types of soil wetting processes were classified and quantified. For this, capacitance sensors, which registered the volumetric water content at high temporal resolution (30min) for more than two hydrological years, were installed at different depths and placed in soil moisture stations with different vegetation covers, lithology and topographic position. Results indicated that there is a general behaviour or pattern of soil moisture dynamics in the catchment with a dominant occurrence of slower soil wetting processes (>50%), caused by matrix flows, and a low occurrence of those faster processes (<30%), originated by preferential flows. Nevertheless, when the total volume of water is considered, preferential flow becomes the dominant process, so that the ecological role of both flow types becomes prominent in water-limited environments. Statistical multivariate analyses based on data-mining techniques proved that although both flow types depend on variables associated with precipitation and antecedent soil moisture conditions, faster soil wetting processes are mainly related to variables such as rainfall intensity and topography, while slower soil wetting processes are related to flow velocity, soils or vegetation. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Ecosystem services have a significant impact on human wellbeing. While ecosystem services are frequently represented by monetary values, social values and underlying social benefits remain underexplored. The purpose of this study is to assess whether and how social benefits have been explicitly addressed within socio-economic and socio-cultural ecosystem services research, ultimately allowing a better understanding between ecosystem services and human well-being. In this paper, we reviewed 115 international primary valuation studies and tested four hypotheses associated to the identification of social benefits of ecosystem services using logistic regressions. Tested hypotheses were that (1) social benefits are mostly derived in studies that assess cultural ecosystem services as opposed to other ecosystem service types, (2) there is a pattern of social benefits and certain cultural ecosystem services assessed simultaneously, (3) monetary valuation techniques go beyond expressing monetary values and convey social benefits, and (4) directly addressing stakeholdeŕs views the consideration of social benefits in ecosystem service assessments. Our analysis revealed that (1) a variety of social benefits are valued in studies that assess either of the four ecosystem service types, (2) certain social benefits are likely to co-occur in combination with certain cultural ecosystem services, (3) of the studies that employed monetary valuation techniques, simulated market approaches overlapped most frequently with the assessment of social benefits and (4) studies that directly incorporate stakeholder's views were more likely to also assess social benefits.
Water research is introduced from the combined perspectives of natural and social science and cases of citizen and stakeholder coproduction of knowledge. Using the overarching notion of transdisciplinarity, we examine how interdisciplinary and participatory water research has taken place and could be developed further. It becomes apparent that water knowledge is produced widely within society, across certified disciplinary experts and noncertified expert stakeholders and citizens. However, understanding and management interventions may remain partial, or even conflicting, as much research across and between traditional disciplines has failed to integrate disciplinary paradigms due to philosophical, methodological, and communication barriers. We argue for more agonistic relationships that challenge both certified and noncertified knowledge productively. These should include examination of how water research itself embeds and is embedded in social context and performs political work. While case studies of the cultural and political economy of water knowledge exist, we need more empirical evidence on how exactly culture, politics, and economics have shaped this knowledge and how and at what junctures this could have turned out differently. We may thus channel the coproductionist critique productively to bring perspectives, alternative knowledges, and implications into water politics where they were not previously considered; in an attempt to counter potential lock-in to particular water policies and technologies that may be inequitable, unsustainable, or unacceptable. While engaging explicitly with politics, transdisciplinary water research should remain attentive to closing down moments in the research process, such as framings, path-dependencies, vested interests, researchers’ positionalities, power, and scale.
A new view of Ecuador's complex geodynamics has been developed in the course of modeling seismic source zones for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. This study focuses on two aspects of the plates' interaction at a continental scale: (a) age-related differences in rheology between Farallon and Nazca plates—marked by the Grijalva rifted margin and its inland projection—as they subduct underneath central Ecuador, and (b) the rapidly changing convergence obliquity resulting from the convex shape of the South American northwestern continental margin. Both conditions satisfactorily explain several characteristics of the observed seismicity and of the interseismic coupling. Intermediate-depth seismicity reveals a severe flexure in the Farallon slab as it dips and contorts at depth, originating the El Puyo seismic cluster. The two slabs position and geometry below continental Ecuador also correlate with surface expressions observable in the local and regional geology and tectonics. The interseismic coupling is weak and shallow south of the Grijalva rifted margin and increases northward, with a heterogeneous pattern locally associated to the Carnegie ridge subduction. High convergence obliquity is responsible for the North Andean Block northeastward movement along localized fault systems. The Cosanga and Pallatanga fault segments of the North Andean Block-South American boundary concentrate most of the seismic moment release in continental Ecuador. Other inner block faults located along the western border of the inter-Andean Depression also show a high rate of moderate-size earthquake production. Finally, a total of 19 seismic source zones were modeled in accordance with the proposed geodynamic and neotectonic scheme.
Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series
(2016)
Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying the strength, directionality and time lag of statistical interrelationships between event series. Event coincidence analysis allows to formulate and test null hypotheses on the origin of the observed interrelationships including tests based on Poisson processes or, more generally, stochastic point processes with a prescribed inter-event time distribution and other higher-order properties. Applying the framework to country-level observational data yields evidence that flood events have acted as triggers of epidemic outbreaks globally since the 1950s. Facing projected future changes in the statistics of climatic extreme events, statistical techniques such as event coincidence analysis will be relevant for investigating the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on human societies and ecosystems worldwide.
Surveys for more than 9,500 households were conducted in the growing seasons 2002/2003 or 2003/2004 in eleven African countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Niger and Senegal in western Africa; Egypt in northern Africa; Ethiopia and Kenya in eastern Africa; South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe in southern Africa. Households were chosen randomly in districts that are representative for key agro-climatic zones and farming systems. The data set specifies farming systems characteristics that can help inform about the importance of each system for a country’s agricultural production and its ability to cope with short- and long-term climate changes or extreme weather events. Further it informs about the location of smallholders and vulnerable systems and permits benchmarking agricultural systems characteristics.
Grazing by domestic ungulates can have substantial impacts on forests in arid and semi-arid regions, possibly including severe loss of carbon from the soil. Predicting net livestock impacts on soil organic carbon stocks remains challenging, however, due to the dependence on animal loads and on soil and environmental parameters. The objective of this study was to better understand grazing effects on soil organic carbon in seasonal tropical dry forests of north-eastern Brazil (Caatinga) by quantifying carbon stocks of the upper soil profile (0–5 cm depth) and greater soil depths (>5 cm depth down to bedrock) along a gradient of grazing intensity while accounting for other influencing factors such as soil texture, vegetation, landscape topography, and water availability. We analysed soil organic carbon, soil clay content, altitude above sea level, soil depth to bedrock, distance to the nearest permanent water body, species diversity of perennial plants and aboveground biomass on 45 study plots located in the vicinity of the Itaparica Reservoir, Pernambuco, Brazil. Livestock (mainly goats and cattle) are unevenly distributed in the studied ecosystem, thus grazing intensity was accounted for based on the weight of livestock droppings per square metre and classified as no or light, intermediate, or heavy grazing. The mean soil organic carbon in the area was 16.86 ± 1.28 Mg ha−1 C with approximately one-quarter found in the upper 5 cm of the soil profile (4.14 ± 0.43 Mg ha−1 C) and the remainder (12.57 ± 0.97 Mg ha−1 C) in greater soil depths (>5 cm). Heavy grazing led to significantly lower soil organic carbon stocks in the upper 5 cm, whereas no effect on soil organic carbon of the soil overall or in greater soil depths was detectable. The soil’s clay content and the altitude proved to be the most relevant factors influencing overall soil organic carbon stocks and those in greater soil depths (>5 cm). Our findings suggest that grazing causes substantial release of carbon from Brazilian dry forest soils, which should be addressed through improved grazing management via a legally compulsory rotation system. This would ultimately contribute to the conservation of a unique forest system and associated ecosystem services.
Surface movements during the largest subduction zone earthquakes commonly drown coastlines. Yet, on geological timescales, coastlines above subduction zones uplift. Here I use a morphometric analysis combined with a numerical model of landscape evolution to estimate uplift rates along the central Andean rasa-a low-relief coastal surface bounded by a steep cliff formed by wave erosion. I find that the rasa has experienced steady uplift of 0.13 +/- 0.04 mm per year along a stretch of more than 2,000 km in length, during the Quaternary. These long-term uplift rates do not correlate with Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of interseismic movements over the decadal scale, which implies that permanent uplift is not predominantly accumulated during the interseismic period. Instead, the rate of rasa uplift correlates with slip during earthquakes straddling the crust-mantle transition, the Moho. Such deeper earthquakes with magnitude 7 to 8 that occurred between 1995 and 2012 resulted in decimetres of coastal uplift. Slip during these earthquakes is located below the locked portion of the plate interface, and therefore may translate into permanent deformation of the overlying plate, where it causes uplift of the coastline. Thus, lower parts of the plate boundary are stably segmented over hundreds to millions of years. I suggest the coastline marks the surface expression of the transition between the shallow, locked seismogenic domain and the deeper, conditionally stable domain where modest earthquakes build up topography.
The loess and paleosol sequences of the Chinese Loess Plateau are composed of Quaternary dust, the origin of which has been the subject of considerable debate. Some recent U-Pb geochronological studies of eolian zircons have proposed the existence of two major wind pathways: from the north and northwest, through the Badan Jaran, Tengger, and Mu Us Deserts during interglacials, and from the west, through the Qaidam Basin during glacials. Others have emphasized the importance of Yellow River sediment supply in the Chinese Loess Plateau sediment budget. However, tracking dust source regions through U-Pb dating in a statistically robust manner is particularly complex given the similar age peaks in the age probability distributions of potential source regions in Central Asia. This paper presents 2410 new U-Pb ages of detrital zircons from wind-eroded strata, Quaternary eolian deposits, and modern river sands in central China in order to increase the robustness and the spatial resolution of zircon age distributions in dust source regions. We then propose a new mixture modeling technique to statistically address the contribution of these different sources to the Chinese Loess Plateau sedimentary budget. Our contribution estimates indicate that eolian supply to the Chinese Loess Plateau is dominated (60%-70%) by reworking of Yellow River sediment. Moreover, evidence of Qaidam Basin-sourced zircons (15%-20%) in both loess (glacial) and paleosol (interglacial) layers corroborates the existence of an erosive wind pathway through the Qaidam Basin during glacials and implies that a substantial portion of the interglacial dust is recycled from older glacial loess. We propose that sediment reworking of Yellow River sediment and older loess deposits by wind on the Chinese Loess Plateau homogenized the eolian zircon populations toward a glacial provenance due to higher (2-20 times) dust accumulation rates during glacials. These findings suggest that the Chinese Loess Plateau has evolved as a more dynamic landform than previous thought, where wind deflation, fluvial input, lateral transport, and accumulation of sediment are equally important. These internal reworking effects would then significantly bias the paleoclimatic interpretations based on eolian dust properties of the Chinese Loess Plateau.
Large, compressional earthquakes cause surface uplift aswell as widespread mass wasting. Knowledge of their trade-off is fragmentary. Combining a seismologically consistent model of earthquake-triggered landsliding and an analytical solution of coseismic surface displacement, we assess how the mass balance of single earthquakes and earthquake sequences depends on fault size and other geophysical parameters. We find that intermediate size earthquakes (M-w 6-7.3) may cause more erosion than uplift, controlled primarily by seismic source depth and landscape steepness, and less so by fault dip and rake. Such earthquakes can limit topographic growth, but our model indicates that both smaller and larger earthquakes (M-w < 6, M-w > 7.3) systematically cause mountain building. Earthquake sequences with a Gutenberg-Richter distribution have a greater tendency to lead to predominant erosion, than repeating earthquakes of the same magnitude, unless a fault can produce earthquakes with M-w > 8 or more.
Variational methods are employed in situations where exact Bayesian inference becomes intractable due to the difficulty in performing certain integrals. Typically, variational methods postulate a tractable posterior and formulate a lower bound on the desired integral to be approximated, e.g. marginal likelihood. The lower bound is then optimised with respect to its free parameters, the so-called variational parameters. However, this is not always possible as for certain integrals it is very challenging (or tedious) to come up with a suitable lower bound. Here, we propose a simple scheme that overcomes some of the awkward cases where the usual variational treatment becomes difficult. The scheme relies on a rewriting of the lower bound on the model log-likelihood. We demonstrate the proposed scheme on a number of synthetic and real examples, as well as on a real geophysical model for which the standard variational approaches are inapplicable.
Glacial legacies on interglacial vegetation at the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in NE Asia
(2016)
Broad-scale climate control of vegetation is widely assumed. Vegetation-climate lags are generally thought to have lasted no more than a few centuries. Here our palaeoecological study challenges this concept over glacial–interglacial timescales. Through multivariate analyses of pollen assemblages from Lake El’gygytgyn, Russian Far East and other data we show that interglacial vegetation during the Plio-Pleistocene transition mainly reflects conditions of the preceding glacial instead of contemporary interglacial climate. Vegetation–climate disequilibrium may persist for several millennia, related to the combined effects of permafrost persistence, distant glacial refugia and fire. In contrast, no effects from the preceding interglacial on glacial vegetation are detected. We propose that disequilibrium was stronger during the Plio-Pleistocene transition than during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period when, in addition to climate, herbivory was important. By analogy to the past, we suggest today’s widespread larch ecosystem on permafrost is not in climate equilibrium. Vegetation-based reconstructions of interglacial climates used to assess atmospheric CO2–temperature relationships may thus yield misleading simulations of past global climate sensitivity.
The aim of the present study was to investigate nutritional and metabolic parameters during the dry and early postpartum periods of ovulatory and anovulatory cows, as well as their postpartum reproductive performance. Blood samples from 20 multiparous Holstein cows were collected once a week from the far-off dry period to 3 weeks postpartum. Early postpartum (0-3 weeks) ovulation was confirmed using plasma progesterone concentration profiles, and cows were considered ovulatory if they had resumed luteal activity by this point (n = 9), whereas cows that had not were considered anovulatory (n = 11). Data from the ovulatory and anovulatory cows were analyzed separately for the far-off dry period (7-4 weeks prepartum), the close-up dry period (3-1 weeks prepartum), and the early postpartum period (0-3 weeks). Serum gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase activity (far-off, P = 0.065; close-up, P = 0.051; and early postpartum, P = 0.030) and aspartate aminotransferase (close-up, P = 0.050 and early postpartum, P = 0.087) activities were higher in anovulatory than in ovulatory cows. The days open period was longer (P = 0.019) in anovulatory than in ovulatory cows, and the number of artificial inseminations per conception (P = 0.025) was greater. In conclusion, we found that continuously high gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase activities in serum, which may be induced by liver disorders, prevent subsequent ovulation and affect subsequent fertility, even if cows obtain sufficient ovulation-related energy and beta-carotene.
The Dead Sea region has faced substantial environmental challenges in recent decades, including water resource scarcity, similar to 1 m annual decreases in the water level, sinkhole development, ascending-brine freshwater pollution, and seismic disturbance risks. Natural processes are significantly affected by human interference as well as by climate change and tectonic developments over the long term. To get a deep understanding of processes and their interactions, innovative scientific approaches that integrate disciplinary research and education are required. The research project DESERVE (Helmholtz Virtual Institute Dead Sea Research Venue) addresses these challenges in an interdisciplinary approach that includes geophysics, hydrology, and meteorology. The project is implemented by a consortium of scientific institutions in neighboring countries of the Dead Sea (Israel, Jordan, Palestine Territories) and participating German Helmholtz Centres (KIT, GFZ, UFZ). A new monitoring network of meteorological, hydrological, and seismic/geodynamic stations has been established, and extensive field research and numerical simulations have been undertaken. For the first time, innovative measurement and modeling techniques have been applied to the extreme conditions of the Dead Sea and its surroundings. The preliminary results show the potential of these methods. First time ever performed eddy covariance measurements give insight into the governing factors of Dead Sea evaporation. High-resolution bathymetric investigations reveal a strong correlation between submarine springs and neo-tectonic patterns. Based on detailed studies of stratigraphy and borehole information, the extension of the subsurface drainage basin of the Dead Sea is now reliably estimated. Originality has been achieved in monitoring flash floods in an arid basin at its outlet and simultaneously in tributaries, supplemented by spatio-temporal rainfall data. Low-altitude, high resolution photogrammetry, allied to satellite image analysis and to geophysical surveys (e.g. shear-wave reflections) has enabled a more detailed characterization of sinkhole morphology and temporal development and the possible subsurface controls thereon. All the above listed efforts and scientific results take place with the interdisciplinary education of young scientists. They are invited to attend joint thematic workshops and winter schools as well as to participate in field experiments. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Reconstructions of the deposition rate of windblown mineral dust in ocean sediments offer an important means of tracking past climate changes and of assessing the radiative and biogeochemical impacts of dust in past climates. Dust flux estimates in ocean sediments have commonly been based on the operationally defined lithogenic fraction of sediment samples. More recently, dust fluxes have been estimated from measurements of helium and thorium, as rare isotopes of these elements (He-3 and Th-230) allow estimates of sediment flux, and the dominant isotopes (He-4 and Th-232) are uniquely associated with the lithogenic fraction of marine sediments. In order to improve the fidelity of dust flux reconstructions based on He and Th, we present a survey of He and Th concentrations in sediments from dust source areas in East Asia, Australia and South America. Our data show systematic relationships between He and Th concentrations and grain size, with He concentrations decreasing and Th concentrations increasing with decreasing grain size. We find consistent He and Th concentrations in the fine fraction (<5 mu m) of samples from East Asia, Australia and Central South America (Puna-Central West Argentina), with Th concentrations averaging 14 mu g/g and He concentrations averaging 2 mu cc STP/g. We recommend use of these values for estimating dust fluxes in sediments where dust is dominantly fine-grained, and suggest that previous studies may have systematically overestimated Th-based dust fluxes by 30%. Source areas in Patagonia appear to have lower He and Th contents than other regions, as fine fraction concentrations average 0.8 mu cc STP/g and 9 mu g/g for He-4 and Th-232, respectively. The impact of grain size on lithogenic He and Th concentrations should be taken into account in sediments proximal to dust sources where dust grain size may vary considerably. Our data also have important implications for the hosts of He in long-traveled dust and for the He-3/He-4 ratio used for terrigenous He in studies of extraterrestrial He in sediments and ice. We also investigate the use of He/Th ratios as a provenance tracer. Our results suggest differences in fine fraction He/Th ratios between East Asia, Australia, central South America and Patagonia, with ratios showing a positive relationship with the geological age of source rocks. He/Th ratios may thus provide useful provenance information, for example allowing separation of Patagonian sources from Puna-Central West Argentina or Australian dust sources. He/Th ratios in open-ocean marine sediments are similar to ratios in the fine fraction of upwind dust source areas. He/Th ratios in mid-latitude South Atlantic sediments suggest that dust in this region primarily derives from the Puna-Central West Argentina region (23-32 degrees S) rather than Patagonia (>38 degrees S). In the equatorial Pacific, He/Th ratios are much lower than in extratropical Pacific sediments or potential source areas measured as a part of this study (East Asia, South America, Australia) for reasons that are at present unclear, complicating their use as provenance tracers in this region. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Decreasing groundwater levels in many parts of Germany and decreasing low flows in Central Europe have created a need for adaptation measures to stabilize the water balance and to increase low flows. The objective of our study was to estimate the impact of ditch water level management on stream-aquifer interactions in small lowland catchments of the mid-latitudes. The water balance of a ditch-irrigated area and fluxes between the subsurface and the adjacent stream were modeled for three runoff recession periods using the Hydrus-2D software package. The results showed that the subsurface flow to the stream was closely related to the difference between the water level in the ditch system and the stream. Evapotranspiration during the growing season additionally reduced base flow. It was crucial to stop irrigation during a recession period to decrease water withdrawal from the stream and enhance the base flow by draining the irrigated area. Mean fluxes to the stream were between 0.04 and 0.64 ls(-1) for the first 20 days of the low-flow periods. This only slightly increased the flow in the stream, whose mean was 57 ls(-1) during the period with the lowest flows. Larger areas would be necessary to effectively increase flows in mesoscale catchments.
The role of soil erosion in terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration and release remains one of the most important uncertainties in our attempts to determine the potential of soils to mediate climate change. Despite its widely recognized importance for terrestrial C sequestration, to date, no Earth System Model (ESM) implements soil erosion effects on carbon cycling in sufficient detail. So far, available studies have mostly investigated the magnitude of erosional C transport and in-situ measurements of vertical C fluxes on the catchment or regional scale. Recognizing the need to adequately represent C erosion processes and controls in ESMs, we provide a comprehensive cross-disciplinary review on lateral C redistribution in the landscape and discuss the implications for bio-geochemical cycling of carbon. We present current knowledge on the role of erosional C distribution in controlling the stabilization and release of C in soils, taking into consideration the important geomorphic, ecological, hydrologic, pedologic and micro-climatic processes and controls that affect soil organic carbon (SOC) stock, fluxes, and persistence in dynamic landscapes. Further, we provide an overview on latest experimental and modelling approaches that are being used to investigate the role of erosion in the carbon cycle. Finally, to advance our understanding of the role of soil redistribution in biogeochemical cycles of essential elements, we discuss the most promising topics for future research in this field. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Pompeii, buried by the explosive A. D. 79 eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, is one of the most studied ancient cities in the Roman world. However, until very recently, the rural settlement in its hinterland had been largely ignored by systematic archaeological research. The ancient landscape around Pompeii consisted of a dense network of Roman farms (villae rusticae). They are believed to have played a vital role in ancient rural life and economy and thus represented the interactive rural-urban relationship in the Sarno River plain. The systematic investigation of published work combined with new fieldwork has yielded a data set of 140 villae rusticae in the Sarno River plain. Geographic information system based spatial statistics as well as predictive modeling were applied to gain a more detailed understanding of the ancient rural settlement structure in relation to the underlying paleoenvironmental and socioeconomic conditions. A high-resolution pre-A. D. 79 paleolandscape model of the Sarno River plain was utilized. The aim of this paper is to address theoretical considerations, the methodological implementation, and the archaeological discussion of the analysis of the ancient rural settlements and agriculture around Pompeii. (C) 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
The main scope of the InterPACIFIC (Intercomparison of methods for site parameter and velocity profile characterization) project is to assess the reliability of in-hole and surface-wave methods, used for estimating shear wave velocity. Three test-sites with different subsurface conditions were chosen: a soft soil, a stiff soil and a rock outcrop. This paper reports the surface-wave methods results. Specifically 14 teams of expert users analysed the same experimental surface-wave datasets, consisting of both passive and active data. Each team adopted their own strategy to retrieve the dispersion curve and the shear-wave velocity profile at each site. Despite different approaches, the dispersion curves are quite in agreement with each other. Conversely, the shear-wave velocity profiles show a certain variability that increases in correspondence of major stratigraphic interfaces. This larger variability is mainly due to non-uniqueness of the solution and lateral variability. As expected, the observed variability in V-s,V-30 estimatesis small, as solution non-uniqueness plays a limited role. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Hummocky soil landscapes are characterized by 3D spatial patterns of soil types that result from erosion-affected pedogenesis. Due to tillage and water erosion, truncated profiles have been formed at steep and mid slopes and colluvial soils at hollows, while intact profiles remained at plateau positions. Pedogenetic variations in soil horizons lead to spatial differences in the soil water balance at hillslope positions. Here, possible interactions between erosion affected soil properties, the water balances, and the crop growth and feedback effects of erosion on the leaching rates were assumed. The hypothesis was tested by water balance simulations comparing uniform with hillslope position-specific crop and root growths for soils at plateau, flat mid slope, steep slope, and hollow using the Hydrus-1D program. The boundary condition data were monitored at the CarboZALF-D experimental field site, which was cropped with perennial lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) in 2013 and 2014. Crop and root growth at the four hillslope positions was assumed proportional to observed leaf area index (LAI). Fluxes of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (DOC, DIC) were obtained from simulated water fluxes and measured DOC and DIC concentrations. For the colluvic soil at hollow, the crop growth was initially highest and later limited by an increasing water table; here the predominately upward flow led to a net input in DIC and DOC. For the truncated soils at steep slopes, simulations support the hypothesis that reduced crop growth caused an increase in percolation and DIC leaching from the subsoil horizons, which in turn led to accelerated soil development and more soil variations along eroding hillslopes in arable soil landscapes. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
This manuscript proposes a method to assess hydrological drought in semi-arid environments under high impoundment rate and applies it to the semi-arid Jaguaribe River basin in Brazil. It analyzes droughts (1) in the largest reservoir systems; (2) in the Upper Basin, considering 4744 reservoirs, 800 wells and almost 18,000 cisterns; and (3) in reservoirs of different sizes during multiyear droughts. Results show that the water demand is constrained in the basin; hydrological and meteorological droughts are often out of phase; there is a negative correlation between storage level and drought severity; and the small systems cannot cope with long-term droughts.
By reducing current velocity, tidal marsh vegetation can diminish storm surges and storm waves. Conversely, currents often exert high mechanical stresses onto the plants and hence affect vegetation structure and plant characteristics. In our study, we aim at analysing this interaction from both angles. On the one hand, we quantify the reduction of current velocity by Bolboschoenus maritimus, and on the other hand, we identify functional traits of B. maritimus’ ramets along environmental gradients. Our results show that tidal marsh vegetation is able to buffer a large proportion of the flow velocity at currents under normal conditions. Cross-shore current velocity decreased with distance from the marsh edge and was reduced by more than 50% after 15 m of vegetation. We were furthermore able to show that plants growing at the marsh edge had a significantly larger diameter than plants from inside the vegetation. We found a positive correlation between plant thickness and cross-shore current which could provide an adaptive value in habitats with high mechanical stress. With the adapted morphology of plants growing at the highly exposed marsh edge, the entire vegetation belt is able to better resist the mechanical stress of high current velocities. This self-adaptive effect thus increases the ability of B. maritimus to grow and persist in the pioneer zone and may hence better contribute to ecosystem-based coastal protection by reducing current velocity.
The high rate GPS velocity determination technology which is based on the broadcast ephemeris and epoch differenced model can retrieve displacement of ground motion with the precision of a few centimetres to decimetres in real time. Moreover, the precision of the recovered displacement can be improved if the un-modelled errors such as broadcast ephemeris residuals, atmospheric residuals, multipath effects and high frequency noise are tackled more accurately. In this paper, we propose a method to improve the precision of the recovered displacement by appropriately making use of reference station corrections. For the reference stations, the coordinates are highly constrained to extract the error corrections that are to be broadcast via a communication link to the rover. After correcting the rover’s observations, some errors such as ephemeris residuals and atmospheric residuals are effectively eliminated or at least reduced. This improves the accuracy of the observations and thus enhances the reliability of the velocity estimation. The displacement can be recovered by integrating the estimated velocity after de-trending using a linear trend that is caused by the un-corrected residuals. The series of validation results in the experiment have shown that the displacement of the simulated motion can be real time recovered with a precision of 1–2 cm, and is thus applicable for real time monitoring of the ground motion.
EnGeoMAP 2.0-Automated Hyperspectral Mineral Identification for the German EnMAP Space Mission
(2016)
Algorithms for a rapid analysis of hyperspectral data are becoming more and more important with planned next generation spaceborne hyperspectral missions such as the Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program (EnMAP) and the Japanese Hyperspectral Imager Suite (HISUI), together with an ever growing pool of hyperspectral airborne data. The here presented EnGeoMAP 2.0 algorithm is an automated system for material characterization from imaging spectroscopy data, which builds on the theoretical framework of the Tetracorder and MICA (Material Identification and Characterization Algorithm) of the United States Geological Survey and of EnGeoMAP 1.0 from 2013. EnGeoMAP 2.0 includes automated absorption feature extraction, spatio-spectral gradient calculation and mineral anomaly detection. The usage of EnGeoMAP 2.0 is demonstrated at the mineral deposit sites of Rodalquilar (SE-Spain) and Haib River (S-Namibia) using HyMAP and simulated EnMAP data. Results from Hyperion data are presented as supplementary information.