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„It’s the Strategy, Stupid!“
(2011)
Wiederkehr des Immergleichen
(2011)
German foreign policy is in the midst of a far-reaching transformation. Contrary to disciplinary expectations, this process is neither properly captured by descriptions in the liberal tradition („Europeanisation“, „Civilian Power“) nor by Realist expectations that Germany is doomed to „remilitarise“ and/or „renationalise“. However, the key term of foreign policy discourse, „normalisation“, is an unmistakable code, signalling a rediscovery of traditional Realpolitik practices which fit Germany’s current environment. The paper argues that rather than merely playing the role of an obedient disciple of Realpolitik socialisers, Germany ought to rehabilitate the foreign policy tradition of the Bonn Republic in support of an active Idealpolitik transformation of its environment. The article serves as a starting point for a debate on German foreign policy in the upcoming issues of WeltTrends.
Warten auf Godot
(2011)
In the spring 2004 issue of WeltTrends, Gunther Hellmann sparked a debate on Germany's foreign policy. He argued that Germany’s international behaviour is dominated by a "realpolitik" policy, generally referred to as "normalization". For Hellmann, this transformation indicates one of the "deepest crisis of Germany’s foreign policy" ever. The first three parts were published in the summer, fall and winter editions (no. 43, 44 and 45) of WeltTrends, which featured contributions of German International Relations scholars as well as experts from abroad. In this issue, foreign policy makers and a Polish expert join the debate.
"Der 8. Mai hat es in sich. Es ist aber nicht nur die Geschichte. Die Woche vom 8. Mai war in diesem Jahr die 'Woche der Wahrheit' im Bundestag, eine Kristallkugel, die einen düsteren Blick in die Zukunft erlaubt. Das wurde durch zwei Ereignisse klar, die etwas verband, ohne dass sie zusammen geplant waren. [...]"
Vom Sprechen und Schweigen
(2004)
Weltweit verursachen Städte etwa 70 % der Treibhausgasemissionen und sind daher wichtige Akteure im Klimaschutz bzw. eine wichtige Zielgruppe von Klimapolitiken. Gleichzeitig sind Städte besonders stark von möglichen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels betroffen: Insbesondere extreme Wetterereignisse wie Hitzewellen oder Starkregenereignisse mit Überflutungen verursachen in Städten hohe Sachschäden und wirken sich negativ auf die Gesundheit der städtischen Bevölkerung aus. Daher verfolgt das Projekt ExTrass das Ziel, die städtische Resilienz gegenüber extremen Wetterereignissen in enger Zusammenarbeit mit Stadtverwaltungen, Strukturen des Bevölkerungsschutzes und der Zivilgesellschaft zu stärken. Im Fokus stehen dabei (kreisfreie) Groß- und Mittelstädte mit 50.000 bis 500.000 Einwohnern, insbesondere die Fallstudienstädte Potsdam, Remscheid und Würzburg.
Der vorliegende Bericht beinhaltet die Ergebnisse der 14-monatigen Definitionsphase von ExTrass, in der vor allem die Abstimmung eines Arbeitsprogramms im Mittelpunkt stand, das in einem nachfolgenden dreijährigen Forschungsprojekt (F+E-Phase) gemeinsam von Wissenschaft und Praxispartnern umgesetzt werden soll. Begleitend wurde eine Bestandsaufnahme von Klimaanpassungs- und Klimaschutzstrategien/-plänen in 99 deutschen Groß- und Mittelstädten vorgenommen. Zudem wurden für Potsdam und Würzburg Pfadanalysen für die Klimapolitik durchgeführt. Darin wird insbesondere die Bedeutung von Schlüsselakteuren deutlich. Weiterhin wurden im Rahmen von Stakeholder-Workshops Anpassungsherausforderungen und aktuelle Handlungsbedarfe in den Fallstudienstädten identifiziert und Lösungsansätze erarbeitet, die in der F+E-Phase entwickelt und getestet werden sollen. Neben Maßnahmen auf gesamtstädtischer Ebene und auf Stadtteilebene wurden Maßnahmen angestrebt, die die Risikowahrnehmung, Vorsorge und Selbsthilfefähigkeit von Unternehmen und Bevölkerung stärken können. Daher wurde der Stand der Risikokommunikation in Deutschland für das Projekt aufgearbeitet und eine erste Evaluation von Risikokommunikationswerkzeugen durchgeführt. Der Bericht endet mit einer Kurzfassung des Arbeitsprogramms 2018-2021.
Large Central European flood events of the past have demonstrated that flooding can affect several river basins at the same time leading to catastrophic economic and humanitarian losses that can stretch emergency resources beyond planned levels of service. For Germany, the spatial coherence of flooding, the contributing processes and the role of trans-basin floods for a national risk assessment is largely unknown and analysis is limited by a lack of systematic data, information and knowledge on past events. This study investigates the frequency and intensity of trans-basin flood events in Germany. It evaluates the data and information basis on which knowledge about trans-basin floods can be generated in order to improve any future flood risk assessment. In particu-lar, the study assesses whether flood documentations and related reports can provide a valuable data source for understanding trans-basin floods. An adaptive algorithm was developed that systematically captures trans-basin floods using series of mean daily discharge at a large number of sites of even time series length (1952-2002). It identifies the simultaneous occurrence of flood peaks based on the exceedance of an initial threshold of a 10 year flood at one location and consecutively pools all causally related, spatially and temporally lagged peak recordings at the other locations. A weighted cumulative index was developed that accounts for the spatial extent and the individual flood magnitudes within an event and allows quantifying the overall event severity. The parameters of the method were tested in a sensitivity analysis. An intensive study on sources and ways of information dissemination of flood-relevant publications in Germany was conducted. Based on the method of systematic reviews a strategic search approach was developed to identify relevant documentations for each of the 40 strongest trans-basin flood events. A novel framework for assessing the quality of event specific flood reports from a user’s perspective was developed and validated by independent peers. The framework was designed to be generally applicable for any natural hazard type and assesses the quality of a document addressing accessibility as well as representational, contextual, and intrinsic dimensions of quality. The analysis of time-series of mean daily discharge resulted in the identification of 80 trans-basin flood events within the period 1952-2002 in Germany. The set is dominated by events that were recorded in the hydrological winter (64%); 36% occurred during the summer months. The occurrence of floods is characterised by a distinct clustering in time. Dividing the study period into two sub-periods, we find an increase in the percentage of winter events from 58% in the first to 70.5% in the second sub-period. Accordingly, we find a significant increase in the number of extreme trans-basin floods in the second sub-period. A large body of 186 flood relevant documentations was identified. For 87.5% of the 40 strongest trans-basin floods in Germany at least one report has been found and for the most severe floods a substantial amount of documentation could be obtained. 80% of the material can be considered grey literature (i.e. literature not controlled by commercial publishers). The results of the quality assessment show that the majority of flood event specific reports are of a good quality, i.e. they are well enough drafted, largely accurate and objective, and contain a substantial amount of information on the sources, pathways and receptors/consequences of the floods. The inclusion of this information in the process of knowledge building for flood risk assessment is recommended. Both the results as well as the data produced in this study are openly accessible and can be used for further research. The results of this study contribute to an improved spatial risk assessment in Germany. The identified set of trans-basin floods provides the basis for an assessment of the chance that flooding occurs simultaneously at a number of sites. The information obtained from flood event documentation can usefully supplement the analysis of the processes that govern flood risk.
The increasing introduction of non-native plant species may pose a threat to local biodiversity. However, the basis of successful plant invasion is not conclusively understood, especially since these plant species can adapt to the new range within a short period of time despite impoverished genetic diversity of the starting populations. In this context, DNA methylation is considered promising to explain successful adaptation mechanisms in the new habitat. DNA methylation is a heritable variation in gene expression without changing the underlying genetic information. Thus, DNA methylation is considered a so-called epigenetic mechanism, but has been studied in mainly clonally reproducing plant species or genetic model plants. An understanding of this epigenetic mechanism in the context of non-native, predominantly sexually reproducing plant species might help to expand knowledge in biodiversity research on the interaction between plants and their habitats and, based on this, may enable more precise measures in conservation biology.
For my studies, I combined chemical DNA demethylation of field-collected seed material from predominantly sexually reproducing species and rearing offsping under common climatic conditions to examine DNA methylation in an ecological-evolutionary context. The contrast of chemically treated (demethylated) plants, whose variation in DNA methylation was artificially reduced, and untreated control plants of the same species allowed me to study the impact of this mechanism on adaptive trait differentiation and local adaptation. With this experimental background, I conducted three studies examining the effect of DNA methylation in non-native species along a climatic gradient and also between climatically divergent regions.
The first study focused on adaptive trait differentiation in two invasive perennial goldenrod species, Solidago canadensis sensu latu and S. gigantea AITON, along a climate gradient of more than 1000 km in length in Central Europe. I found population differences in flowering timing, plant height, and biomass in the temporally longer-established S. canadensis, but only in the number of regrowing shoots for S. gigantea. While S. canadensis did not show any population structure, I was able to identify three genetic groups along this climatic gradient in S. gigantea. Surprisingly, demethylated plants of both species showed no change in the majority of traits studied. In the subsequent second study, I focused on the longer-established goldenrod species S. canadensis and used molecular analyses to infer spatial epigenetic and genetic population differences in the same specimens from the previous study. I found weak genetic but no epigenetic spatial variation between populations. Additionally, I was able to identify one genetic marker and one epigenetic marker putatively susceptible to selection. However, the results of this study reconfirmed that the epigenetic mechanism of DNA methylation appears to be hardly involved in adaptive processes within the new range in S. canadensis.
Finally, I conducted a third study in which I reciprocally transplanted short-lived plant species between two climatically divergent regions in Germany to investigate local adaptation at the plant family level. For this purpose, I used four plant families (Amaranthaceae, Asteraceae, Plantaginaceae, Solanaceae) and here I additionally compared between non-native and native plant species. Seeds were transplanted to regions with a distance of more than 600 kilometers and had either a temperate-oceanic or a temperate-continental climate. In this study, some species were found to be maladapted to their own local conditions, both in non-native and native plant species alike. In demethylated individuals of the plant species studied, DNA methylation had inconsistent but species-specific effects on survival and biomass production. The results of this study highlight that DNA methylation did not make a substantial contribution to local adaptation in the non-native as well as native species studied.
In summary, my work showed that DNA methylation plays a negligible role in both adaptive trait variation along climatic gradients and local adaptation in non-native plant species that either exhibit a high degree of genetic variation or rely mainly on sexual reproduction with low clonal propagation. I was able to show that the adaptive success of these non-native plant species can hardly be explained by DNA methylation, but could be a possible consequence of multiple introductions, dispersal corridors and meta-population dynamics. Similarly, my results illustrate that the use of plant species that do not predominantly reproduce clonally and are not model plants is essential to characterize the effect size of epigenetic mechanisms in an ecological-evolutionary context.
The involvement of the two German states in Korea during the 1950s in the context of the Cold War
(2020)
This master thesis will analyze the background of the involvement of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) and the German Democratic Republic (GDR) in Korea during the 1950s in the context of the Cold War. In both Korean states, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) as well as the Republic of Korea (ROK), the so-called humanitarian aid that was provided to them in the form of medical and economic assistance to help surmount the hardship of the postwar period is remembered with great appreciation to this day. However, critical views on the German engagement in Korea are still relatively hard to find. In this paper, two exemplary cases will be studied: the GDR’s city reconstruction project in the North Korean cities of Hamheung and Heungnam and the FRG’s medical assistance to the ROK by means of the West German Red Cross Hospital in Busan. By looking at primary sources like governmental documents, this thesis will examine the geopolitical conditions and particular national interests that stood behind the German development and humanitarian aid for the Korean states at that time, thus shedding light on the political goals the two German states pursued, and the benefit they expected to derive from their engagement in Korea. Sources consulted include primary archival materials, secondary sources like monographs, journal articles, contemporary newspaper articles, and interviews with contemporary witnesses.
The involvement of the two German states in Korea during the 1950s in the context of the Cold War
(2020)
This master thesis will analyze the background of the involvement of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) and the German Democratic Republic (GDR) in Korea during the 1950s in the context of the Cold War. In both Korean states, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) as well as the Republic of Korea (ROK), the so-called humanitarian aid that was provided to them in the form of medical and economic assistance to help surmount the hardship of the postwar period is remembered with great appreciation to this day. However, critical views on the German engagement in Korea are still relatively hard to find. In this paper, two exemplary cases will be studied: the GDR’s city reconstruction project in the North Korean cities of Hamheung and Heungnam and the FRG’s medical assistance to the ROK by means of the West German Red Cross Hospital in Busan. By looking at primary sources like governmental documents, this thesis will examine the geopolitical conditions and particular national interests that stood behind the German development and humanitarian aid for the Korean states at that time, thus shedding light on the political goals the two German states pursued, and the benefit they expected to derive from their engagement in Korea. Sources consulted include primary archival materials, secondary sources like monographs, journal articles, contemporary newspaper articles, and interviews with contemporary witnesses.
Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming
(2020)
Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.
Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability.
Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise.
Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.
Deutschland hat sich innerhalb kurzer Zeit zu einem bedeutenden sicherheitspolitischen Akteur im Weltraum entwickelt. Am 1. Dezember 2010 stellte die Bundesregierung die deutsche Raumfahrtstrategie vor. Immer wieder ist die Rede von der strategischen Bedeutung des Weltraums für die deutsche Sicherheitspolitik. Eine fundierte und überprüfbare Begründung für diese Behauptung fehlt indes. Der Politikwissenschaftler Cornelius Vogt analysiert die strategischen Aspekte deutscher Weltraumsicherheitspolitik. Seine Untersuchung des strategischen Umfeldes, der nationalen Interessen, des sicherheitspolitischen Nutzens des Weltraums und der wichtigsten Anwendungsfelder zeigt, dass der Weltraum zum unverzichtbaren Bestandteil der gesamtstaatlichen Sicherheitsvorsorge avanciert ist.
"Nach der Gründung der DDR war es eine Gruppe deutscher Antifaschisten, die an der Spitze der diplomatischen Missionen des neuen Staates auch einen neuen Typ deutscher Repräsentanten verkörperten. Fortan waren es nicht nur ehemalige Mitarbeiter des nationalsozialistischen AA, die nun für Bonn auf internationalem Parkett agierten, sondern angesehene Antifaschisten [...]"
The article points to the following causes of German social policy reform, as it has taken shape by the so-called ‘Hartz’-Acts: the self-inflicted financial crisis of the welfare state, the return of party leaders as agenda setters, and the weakening of employers associations and trade unions in this policy field. Through a large, informal coalition, the political parties have responded to various internal conflict constellations.
Depuis les débuts de l’ère spatiale à la seconde moitié du XXème siècle, la France et l’Allemagne ont contribué à l’émergence d’une industrie spatiale européenne dont ils sont les deux principaux acteurs et les principaux partenaires. L’agence spatiale européenne, en s’appuyant sur cette industrie duale, à la fois civile et militaire, a donné une place importante à l’Europe sur la scène mondiale. La création de pôles de compétitivité au tournant du XXIème siècle a contribué à soutenir l’innovation dans un secteur bousculé par l’arrivée de nouveaux acteurs internationaux. Ces pôles se sont imposés dans le paysage économique du secteur en créant des organisations où cohabitent et collaborent des acteurs privés et publics allant de la recherche à la mise en oeuvre des technologies développées. A la multiplicité des politiques de soutien à l’innovation en France et en Allemagne s’ajoutent désormais les objectifs européens définis par la Commission Européenne. Les pôles de compétitivité ne sont pas identifiés comme des instruments privilégiés de la politique spatiale européenne pas plus que dans les projets de coopération franco-allemands des dernières années. La capacité d’action locale de ces organisations n’est pas adaptée aux enjeux économiques à dimension européenne qui prévalent aujourd’hui et ne leur permet pas de s’intégrer efficacement dans l’industrie spatiale moderne.
Hellmanns Warnung vor einer Resozialisierung der deutschen Außenpolitik in eine traditionelle Großmachtrolle erweckt bei mir viel Sympathie. Seine Alternative finde ich moralisch ehrenhaft, aber realistisch nur innerhalb des Prozesses der europäischen Integration. Ich glaube allerdings nicht, dass das Erbe der Geschichte Deutschlands ein besonderes außenpolitisches Vorgehen erzwingt. Ebenso wenig glaube ich, dass idealistische Positionen, gleich welcher Couleur, bei der Bewahrung von Frieden realistischen überlegen sind. Der Berliner Republik haftet ein gewisser Wilhelminismus in der Außenpolitik an. Man will durch Nachholen gleich werden wie die anderen. Die Warnung vor Rissen im Bündnis und vor der Möglichkeit einer Spirale des Niedergangs der europäischen Integration im Beitrag von Hellmann teile ich. Ich würde noch weiter gehen: Auch die humanitäre Intervention bleibt Intervention. Prinzipien der Menschenrechte sind wichtig, ihre Ausgestaltung, manchmal sogar Teile ihrer Prinzipien aber strittig. Welche Kriterien gibt uns der offensive Realismus bei der Stärkung der Interventionsmöglichkeiten draußen, wenn wir dabei keine machtpolitischen Interessen vertreten sollen? Wenn wir nicht alle Übel der Welt abschaffen wollen, dann muss eine Hierarchie verfolgt werden. Die rot-grüne Koalition hat mit der Ausnahme der Irak-Entscheidung im Wesentlichen das Ziel verfolgt, den eigenen Einfluss innerhalb der westlichen Staatengemeinschaft zu steigern. Hellmanns Empfehlung lautet wohl, dort mitzumachen, wo supranationale Institutionen geschaffen werden sollen. Welches sind die Kriterien zur Messung dieser Ziele?
Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data.
In der vorliegenden Arbeit analysiert Maciej Chinalski den Regional Governance Ansatz und seine praktische Umsetzung in den Europäischen Grenzregionen zwischen Deutschland und Polen (Oder-Partnerschaft) sowie im Vierländereck von Österreich, Ungarn, Tschechien und Slowakei (Centrope-Region). Regional Governance gilt als eine Kooperationsform unterschiedlicher regionaler Akteure, die nach neuen Synergien suchen, um ihre Zusammenarbeit voranzutreiben. Eine Region wird dabei als Raum verstärkter Interaktionen zwischen Staat, Zivilgesellschaft und Wirtschaft verstanden.
Die Coronapandemie hat die zentrale Rolle von Staat und Verwaltung für die Krisenbewältigung deutlich gemacht sowie ins Zentrum wissenschaftlicher und öffentlicher Aufmerksamkeit gerückt. Das intergouvernementale Pandemiemanagement, das Zusammenwirken verschiedener Politik- und Verwaltungsebenen im föderalen Staat und die Einbringung wissenschaftlicher Expertise haben sich in der Pandemie als entscheidende institutionelle Stellschrauben erwiesen. Zugleich sind erhebliche Schwachstellen und Engpässe zu Tage getreten, die teilweise zu institutioneller Überforderung, Reibungsverlusten, Koordinationsschwächen oder gar Institutionenversagen geführt haben. Beklagt wurden zudem Maßnahmenpakete und Entscheidungsoutputs, die hinsichtlich ihrer Evidenz- und Wissensbasis teils umstritten waren und in ihrem Zustandekommen hinreichende Legitimation, Zurechenbarkeit, Nachvollziehbarkeit und Transparenz vermissen ließen.
Der seit März 2020 andauernde Krisenzustand hat einen neuartigen, vom bisherigen Normalzustand stark abweichenden Modus des Regierens und des Verwaltungsmanagements in Deutschland geschaffen. In diesem Bereich herrscht weiterhin ein erheblicher politik- und verwaltungswissenschaftlicher Forschungsbedarf, zu dessen Befriedigung diese Studie beitragen soll.
This article asks how the internet has been contributing to the trans-national networking of the radical right and whether the radical right has the capacity to act as a trans-national movement. Taking into account language difficulties, the ideological background of ultra- nationalism and internal disputes, the analysis shows that the radical right-wing transnational networking has hardly developed. Additionally, its internet users’ potential is too low to contribute to a stronger trans-national alignment. The obstacles remain despite improved technological possibilities. This is proven by empirical examples of virtual trans-national networks.
"McCloy war nicht einfach nur der Repräsentant Washingtons in Westdeutschland, sondern wirkte darüber hinaus als einflussreicher Akteur in der amerikanischen Politik, zumal er über einen direkten Draht zum Außenminister und zur Regierung verfügte. Aus gutbürgerlichen Verhältnissen stammend, hatte McCloy jahrelang als Anwalt in der New Yorker Wall Street gearbeitet..."
Inhalt: Gründe für das Entstehen der Parteienfinanzierung aus dem Staatshaushalt ; Argumente für und gegen die Haushaltsfinanzierung politischer Parteien ; Finanzierung politischer Parteien in Polen nach 1989 ; Die Diskussion über das System der Finanzierung politischer Parteien in Polen ; Zusammenfassung ; Literatur
Switches between political and administrative positions seem to be quite common in today’s politics, or at least not so unusual any longer. Nevertheless, up-to-date empirical studies on this issue are lacking. This paper investigates the presumption, that in recent years top bureaucrats have become more politicised, while at the same time more politicians stem from a bureaucratic background, by looking at the career paths of both. For this purpose, we present new empirical evidence on career patterns of top bureaucrats and executive politicians both at Federal and at Länder level. The data was collected from authorized biographies published at the websites of the Federal and Länder ministries for all Ministers, Parliamentary State Secretaries and Administrative State Secretaries who held office in June 2009.
In this issue, we continue and complete the debate on the future of the transatlantic relationship and of world order after the Iraq war. The debate was initiated by an article by Thomas Risse (Freie Universität Berlin) in WeltTrends 39, which has provoked a remarkable reaction within the German academic community, as documented in WeltTrends 40. This issue features additional comments and the rebuttal by Thomas Risse. Most authors believe that the transatlantic partnership is in a serious crisis, but claim that it remains without an alternative for both sides of the Atlantic.
In the need to reform the German labour market, the so-called ‚Hartz IV’- Act cut down subsidies for unemployed people in order to increase the pressure for searching for a new job. By law, low-paid jobs shall be introduced. However, even if this creates employment, there will be a future problem: pensions for these people will dramatically drop below the poverty line. The author argues that, in order to avoid such ‘poverty-traps’, an alternative social support system should be considered: a ‘tax transfer system’ with lowered income tax, yet complete reduction of legal exceptions on the one hand, and transfer systems combined with work incentives on the other hand.
Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 %) and companies (45 %) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 %) and companies (3 %) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10% in 2002 to 34% in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.
Neues deutsches Gedenken?
(2011)
Bedarf es eines neuen Gedenktages der Vertriebenen in Deutschland? Die deutsche Regierung meint Ja. Auf ihre Initiative hin wurde die Entschließung "60 Jahre Charta der deutschen Heimatvertriebenen – Aussöhnung vollenden" im Februar 2011 angenommen. Dieser Gedenktag soll der 5. August sein, also jener Tag, an dem 1950 die "Charta der deutschen Heimatvertriebenen" in Stuttgart angenommen wurde. Der Entschluss traf im Bundestag auf den Widerstand der Opposition – aber auch auf scharfe Kritik in Polen.
The German Ostpolitik of the Red-Green government between 1998 and 2005 focused particularly on the autocratic Russia. It mostly ignored the other – democratic – states in Central and Eastern Europe. Since this policy failed to improve the stability in the region, a policy change is necessary. Regional stability can only be based on the equal cooperation of democratic states. Germany should therefore intensify her support for the democratic forces in the region and integrate her policy into a common Ostpolitik within the EU.
Nation, migration, narration
(2022)
En France et en Allemagne, l’immigration est devenue dans les dernières décennies une problématique centrale. C’est dans ce contexte qu’est apparu le rap. Celui-ci connaît une popularité énorme chez les populations issues de l’immigration. Pour autant, les rappeurs ne s’en confrontent pas moins à leur identité française ou allemande.
Le but de ce travail est d’expliquer cette apparente contradiction : comment des personnes issues de l’immigration, exprimant un mal-être face à un racisme qu’ils considèrent omniprésent, peuvent-elles se sentir pleinement françaises / allemandes ?
On a divisé le travail entre les chapitres suivants : Contexte de l'étude, méthodologie et théories (I) ; Analyse des différentes formes d’identité nationale au prisme du corpus (II) ; Analyse en trois étapes chronologiques du rapport à la société dans les textes des rappeurs (III-V) ; étude de cas de Kery James en France et Samy Deluxe en Allemagne (VI).
Modelling of environmental change impacts on water resources and hydrological extremes in Germany
(2012)
Water resources, in terms of quantity and quality, are significantly influenced by environmental changes, especially by climate and land use changes. The main objective of the present study is to project climate change impacts on the seasonal dynamics of water fluxes, spatial changes in water balance components as well as the future flood and low flow conditions in Germany. This study is based on the modeling results of the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) driven by various regional climate scenarios on one hand. On the other hand, it is supported by statistical analysis on long-term trends of observed and simulated time series. In addition, this study evaluates the impacts of potential land use changes on water quality in terms of NO3-N load in selected sub-regions of the Elbe basin. In the context of climate change, the actual evapotransipration is likely to increase in most parts of Germany, while total runoff generation may decrease in south and east regions in the scenario period 2051-2060. Water discharge in all six studied large rivers (Ems, Weser, Saale, Danube, Main and Neckar) would be 8 – 30% lower in summer and autumn compared to the reference period (1961 – 1990), and the strongest decline is expected for the Saale, Danube and Neckar. The 50-year low flow is likely to occur more frequently in western, southern and central Germany after 2061 as suggested by more than 80% of the model runs. The current low flow period (from August to September) may be extended until the late autumn at the end of this century. Higher winter flow is expected in all of these rivers, and the increase is most significant for the Ems (about 18%). No general pattern of changes in flood directions can be concluded according to the results driven by different RCMs, emission scenarios and multi-realizations. An optimal agricultural land use and management are essential for the reduction in nutrient loads and improvement of water quality. In the Weiße Elster and Unstrut sub-basins (Elbe), an increase of 10% in the winter rape area can result in 12-19% more NO3-N load in rivers. In contrast, another energy plant, maize, has a moderate effect on the water environment. Mineral fertilizers have a much stronger effect on the NO3-N load than organic fertilizers. Cover crops, which play an important role in the reduction of nitrate losses from fields, should be maintained on cropland. The uncertainty in estimating future high flows and, in particular, extreme floods remain high due to different RCM structures, emission scenarios and multi-realizations. In contrast, the projection of low flows under warmer climate conditions appears to be more pronounced and consistent. The largest source of uncertainty related to NO3-N modelling originates from the input data on the agricultural management.
Die vorliegende Studie analysiert die Ergebnisse einer bundesweiten Unternehmensbefragung zum Finanzierungsverhalten deutscher KMU. Im Fokus stehen die Verfügbarkeit konkreter Finanzierungsinstrumente für KMU und deren Akzeptanz im Mittelstand. Dies soll die derzeitigen Möglichkeiten und Grenzen des heimischen Banken- und Finanzsystems verdeutlichen. Darüber hinaus werden verschiedene Aspekte des Innovationsverhaltens der befragten Unternehmen beleuchtet. Es zeigt sich, dass die Finanzierung aus erwirtschafteten Gewinnen einen überragenden Stellenwert besitzt. Zudem werden neben dem traditionell verankerten Bankdarlehen, vor allem kurzfristige, flexible, aber teure Kontokorrent- und Lieferantenkredite für Investitionszwecke genutzt. Alternative Finanzierungsinstrumente, wie Mezzanine, Beteiligungskapital sowie auch Kapitalmarktfinanzierungen haben bisher nur eine marginale Bedeutung erlangt. Als mögliche Ursachen hierfür sind mangelnde Kenntnisse und persönliche Vorbehalte auf Unternehmensseite, aber auch die grundsätzliche Nichteignung dieser Alternativen festzustellen. So liegt das nachgefragte Finanzierungsvolumen bei KMU häufig unter den Mindestgrenzen derartiger Kapitalgeber. Staatliche Förderinstrumente, welche vor allem von größeren mittelständischen Unternehmen in Anspruch genommen werden, können dabei nur einen Teilbeitrag leisten, um die Finanzierungsrestriktionen zu reduzieren. Im Bereich der Innovationsfinanzierung zeigt sich daher vor allem bei mittelgroßen Projekten ein besonderer Finanzierungsengpass.
Die Kernfrage der vorliegenden Arbeit lautet: Sichert die Schuldenbremse die fiskalische Nachhaltigkeit in Deutschland? Zur Beantwortung dieser Frage wird zunächst untersucht, welche Vor-Wirkungen die Einführung der Schuldenbremse im Zeitraum 2010-16 auf die deutschen Bundesländer zeitigte. Dafür wurden die beobachtete Konsolidierungsleistung und der 2009 bestehende Konsolidierungsanreiz bzw. –druck der Bundesländer mit Hilfe einer eigens zu diesem Zweck entwickelten Scorecard evaluiert. Mittels multipler Regressionsanalyse wurde dann analysiert, wie die Faktoren der Scorecard die Konsolidierungsleistung der Bun- desländer beeinflussen. Dabei wurde festgestellt, dass beinahe 90% der Variation, durch die unabhängigen Variablen Haushaltslage, Schuldenlast, Einnahmenwachstum und Pensionslast erklärt werden und der Schuldenbremse bei der Konsolidierungsepisode 2009-2016 eher eine untergeordnete Rolle zugefallen sein dürfte. Anschließend wurde mithilfe der in 65 Expertinneninterviews gesammelten Daten analysiert, welche Grenzen der neuen Fiskalregel in ihrem Wirken gesetzt sind, bzw. welche Risiken zukünftig die Einhaltung der Schuldenbremse erschweren oder verhindern könnten: Kommunalverschuldung, FEUs, Eventualverpflichtungen in Form von Bürgschaften für Finanzinstitute und Pensionsverpflichtungen. Die häufig geäußerten Kritikpunkte, die Schuldenbremse sei eine Konjunktur- und Investitionsbremse werden ebenfalls überprüft und zurückgewiesen. Schließlich werden potentielle zukünftige Entwicklungen hinsichtlich der Schuldenbremse und der öffentlichen Verwaltung in Deutschland sowie der Konsolidierungsbemühungen der Länder erörtert.
Siebzehn Beiträge aus drei Schwerpunktbereichen der soziologischen und historischen Forschungen des polnischen Soziologen Andrzej Sakson, Direktor des Instytut Zachodni in Posen, sind in diesem zehnten PTB zusammengefasst: zu deutsch-polnischen Beziehungen, zu den Minderheiten in Polen und Deutschland sowie zur Migration in Europas Geschichte und Gegenwart. Der Band bietet zugleich einen spannenden Einblick in das zeitgenössische Denken eines der führenden Soziologen Polens.