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Institute
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Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
The gamma-ray spectrum of the low-frequency-peaked BL Lac (LBL) object AP Librae is studied, following the discovery of very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission up to the TeV range by the H.E.S.S. experiment. Thismakes AP Librae one of the few VHE emitters of the LBL type. The measured spectrum yields a flux of (8.8 +/- 1.5(stat) +/- 1.8(sys)) x 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1) above 130 GeV and a spectral index of Gamma = 2.65 +/- 0.19(stat) +/- 0.20(sys). This study also makes use of Fermi-LAT observations in the high energy (HE, E > 100 MeV) range, providing the longest continuous light curve (5 years) ever published on this source. The source underwent a flaring event between MJD 56 306-56 376 in the HE range, with a flux increase of a factor of 3.5 in the 14 day bin light curve and no significant variation in spectral shape with respect to the low-flux state. While the H.E.S.S. and (low state) Fermi-LAT fluxes are in good agreement where they overlap, a spectral curvature between the steep VHE spectrum and the Fermi-LAT spectrum is observed. The maximum of the gamma-ray emission in the spectral energy distribution is located below the GeV energy range.
Aims. Previous observations with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) have revealed an extended very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray source, HESS J1834-087, coincident with the supernova remnant (SNR) W41. The origin of the gamma-ray emission was investigated in more detail with the H.E.S.S. array and the Large Area Telescope (LAT) onboard the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope.
Methods. The gamma-ray data provided by 61 h of observations with H.E.S.S., and four years with the Fermi LAT were analyzed, covering over five decades in energy from 1.8 GeV up to 30 TeV. The morphology and spectrum of the TeV and GeV sources were studied and multiwavelength data were used to investigate the origin of the gamma-ray emission toward W41.
Results. The TeV source can be modeled with a sum of two components: one point-like and one significantly extended (sigma(TeV) = 0.17 degrees +/- 0.01 degrees), both centered on SNR W41 and exhibiting spectra described by a power law with index Gamma(TeV) similar or equal to 2.6. The GeV source detected with Fermi LAT is extended (sigma(GeV) = 0.15 degrees +/- 0.03 degrees) and morphologically matches the VHE emission. Its spectrum can be described by a power-law model with an index Gamma(GeV) = 2.15 +/- 0.12 and smoothly joins the spectrum of the whole TeV source. A break appears in the gamma-ray spectra around 100 GeV. No pulsations were found in the GeV range.
Conclusions. Two main scenarios are proposed to explain the observed emission: a pulsar wind nebula (PWN) or the interaction of SNR W41 with an associated molecular cloud. X-ray observations suggest the presence of a point-like source (a pulsar candidate) near the center of the remnant and nonthermal X-ray diffuse emission that could arise from the possibly associated PWN. The PWN scenario is supported by the compatible positions of the TeV and GeV sources with the putative pulsar. However, the spectral energy distribution from radio to gamma-rays is reproduced by a one-zone leptonic model only if an excess of low-energy electrons is injected following a Maxwellian distribution by a pulsar with a high spin-down power (> 10(37) erg s(-1)). This additional low-energy component is not needed if we consider that the point-like TeV source is unrelated to the extended GeV and TeV sources. The interacting SNR scenario is supported by the spatial coincidence between the gamma-ray sources, the detection of OH (1720 MHz) maser lines, and the hadronic modeling.
The Large Magellanic Cloud, a satellite galaxy of the Milky Way, has been observed with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) above an energy of 100 billion electron volts for a deep exposure of 210 hours. Three sources of different types were detected: the pulsar wind nebula of the most energetic pulsar known, N 157B; the radio-loud supernova remnant N 132D; and the largest nonthermal x-ray shell, the superbubble 30 Dor C. The unique object SN 1987A is, unexpectedly, not detected, which constrains the theoretical framework of particle acceleration in very young supernova remnants. These detections reveal the most energetic tip of a g-ray source population in an external galaxy and provide via 30 Dor C the unambiguous detection of g-ray emission from a superbubble.
Very high energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV)gamma-ray flaring activity of the high-frequency peaked BL Lac object PG 1553 + 113 has been detected by the H.E.S.S. telescopes. The flux of the source increased by a factor of 3 during the nights of 2012 April 26 and 27 with respect to the archival measurements with a hint of intra-night variability. No counterpart of this event has been detected in the Fermi-Large Area Telescope data. This pattern is consistent with VHE gamma(-)ray flaring being caused by the injection of ultrarelativistic particles, emitting.-rays at the highest energies. The dataset offers a unique opportunity to constrain the redshift of this source at z = 0.49 +/- 0.04 using a novel method based on Bayesian statistics. The indication of intra-night variability is used to introduce a novel method to probe for a possible Lorentz invariance violation (LIV), and to set limits on the energy scale at which Quantum Gravity (QG) effects causing LIV may arise. For the subluminal case, the derived limits are E-QG,E- 1 > 4.10 x 10(17) GeV and E-QG,E- 2 > 2.10 x 10(10) GeV for linear and quadratic LIV effects, respectively.
An annihilation signal of dark matter is searched for from the central region of the Milky Way. Data acquired in dedicated on-off observations of the Galactic center region with H.E.S.S. are analyzed for this purpose. No significant signal is found in a total of similar to 9 h of on-off observations. Upper limits on the velocity averaged cross section, <sigma upsilon >, for the annihilation of dark matter particles with masses in the range of similar to 300 GeV to similar to 10 TeV are derived. In contrast to previous constraints derived from observations of the Galactic center region, the constraints that are derived here apply also under the assumption of a central core of constant dark matter density around the center of the Galaxy. Values of <sigma upsilon > that are larger than 3 x 10(-24) cm(3)/s are excluded for dark matter particles with masses between similar to 1 and similar to 4 TeV at 95% C.L. if the radius of the central dark matter density core does not exceed 500 pc. This is the strongest constraint that is derived on <sigma upsilon > for annihilating TeV mass dark matter without the assumption of a centrally cusped dark matter density distribution in the search region.
Context. Puppis A is an interesting similar to 4 kyr-old supernova remnant (SNR) that shows strong evidence of interaction between the forward shock and a molecular cloud. It has been studied in detail from radio frequencies to high-energy (HE, 0.1-100 GeV) gamma-rays. An analysis of the Fermi-LAT data has shown extended HE gamma-ray emission with a 0.2-100 GeV spectrum exhibiting no significant deviation from a power law, unlike most of the GeV-emitting SNRs known to be interacting with molecular clouds. This makes it a promising target for imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs) to probe the gamma-ray emission above 100 GeV.
Aims. Very-high-energy (VHE, E >= 0.1 TeV) gamma-ray emission from Puppis A has been, for the first time, searched for with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS.).
Methods. Stereoscopic imaging of Cherenkov radiation from extensive air showers is used to reconstruct the direction and energy of the incident gamma-rays in order to produce sky images and source spectra. The profile likelihood method is applied to find constraints on the existence of a potential break or cutoff in the photon spectrum.
Results. The analysis of the HESS. data does not reveal any significant emission towards Puppis A. The derived upper limits on the differential photon flux imply that its broadband gamma-ray spectrum must exhibit a spectral break or cutoff. By combining Fermi-LAT and HESS. measurements, the 99% confidence-level upper limits on such a cutoff are found to be 450 and 280 GeV, assuming a power law with a simple exponential and a sub-exponential cutoff, respectively. It is concluded that none of the standard limitations (age, size, radiative losses) on the particle acceleration mechanism, assumed to be continuing at present, can explain the lack of VHE signal. The scenario in which particle acceleration has ceased some time ago is considered as an alternative explanation. The HE/VHE spectrum of Puppis A could then exhibit a break of non-radiative origin (as observed in several other interacting SNRs, albeit at somewhat higher energies), owing to the interaction with dense and neutral material, in particular towards the NE region.
G349.7+0.2 is a young Galactic supernova remnant (SNR) located at the distance of 11.5 kpc and observed across the entire electromagnetic spectrum from radio to high energy (HE; 0.1 GeV < E < 100 GeV) gamma-rays. Radio and infrared observations indicate that the remnant is interacting with a molecular cloud. In this paper, the detection of very high energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission coincident with this SNR with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS.) is reported. This makes it one of the farthest Galactic SNR ever detected in this domain. An integral flux F(E > 400 GeV) = (6.5 +/- 1.1(stat) +/- 1.3(syst)) x 10-11 ph cm(-2) s(-1) corresponding to similar to 0.7% of that of the Crab Nebula and to a luminosity of similar to 10(34) erg s(-1) above the same energy threshold, and a steep photon index Gamma(VHE) = 2.8 +/- 0.27(stat) +/- 0.20(syst) are measured. The analysis of more than 5 yr of Fermi-LAT data towards this source shows a power-law like spectrum with a best-fit photon index Gamma(HE) = 2.2 +/- 0.04.2(stat-0.31sys)(+0.13), The combined gamma-ray spectrum of 0349.7+0.2 can be described by either a broken power law (I3PL) or a power law with exponential (or sub exponential) cutoff (PLC). In the former case, the photon break energy is found at E-br,E-gamma = 551(-30)(+70) GeV, slightly higher than what is usually observed in the HE/VHE gamma-ray emitting middle-aged SNRs known to be interacting with molecular clouds. In the latter case. the exponential (respectively sub-exponential) cutoff energy is measured at E-cat,E-gamma = 1.4(-0.55)(+1.6) (respectively 0.35(-0.21)(+0.75)) TeV. A pion decay process resulting from the interaction of the accelerated protons and nuclei with the dense surrounding medium is clearly the preferred scenario to explain the gamma-ray emission. The BPL with a spectral steepening of 0.5-1 and the PLC provide equally good fits to the data. The product or the average gas density and the total energy content of accelerated protons and nuclei amounts to nu W-p similar to 5 x 10(51) erg cm(-3)
Re-observations with the HESS telescope array of the very high-energy (VHE) source HESS J1018-589A that is coincident with the Fermi-LAT gamma-ray binary 1FGL J1018.6-5856 have resulted in a source detection significance of more than 9 sigma and the detection of variability (chi(2)/nu of 238.3/155) in the emitted gamma-ray flux. This variability confirms the association of HESS J1018-589A with the high-energy gamma-ray binary detected Fermi-LAT and also confirms the point-like source as a new VHE binary system. The spectrum of HESS J1018-589A is best fit with a power-law function with photon index Gamma = 2.20 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.2(sys). Emission is detected up to similar to 20 TeV. The mean differential flux level is (2.9 +/- 0.4) x 10(-13) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1) at 1 TeV, equivalent to similar to 1% of the flux from the Crab Nebula at the same energy. Variability is clearly detected the night-by-night light curve. When folded on the orbital period of 16.58 days, the rebinned light curve peaks in phase with the observed X-ray high-energy phaseograms. The fit of the HESS phaseogram to a constant flux provides evidence of periodicity at the level of N-sigma > 3 sigma. The of the VHE phaseogram and measured spectrum suggest a low-inclination, low-eccentricity system with a modest impact from VHE gamma-ray due to pair production (tau less than or similar to 1 at 300 GeV).
Extract: Topics in psycholinguistics and the neurocognition of language rarely attract the attention of journalists or the general public. One topic that has done so, however, is the potential benefits of bilingualism for general cognitive functioning and development, and as a precaution against cognitive decline in old age. Sensational claims have been made in the public domain, mostly by journalists and politicians. Recently (September 4, 2014) The Guardian reported that “learning a foreign language can increase the size of your brain”, and Michael Gove, the UK's previous Education Secretary, noted in an interview with The Guardian (September 30, 2011) that “learning languages makes you smarter”. The present issue of BLC addresses these topics by providing a state-of-the-art overview of theoretical and experimental research on the role of bilingualism for cognition in children and adults.
Extract: Topics in psycholinguistics and the neurocognition of language rarely attract the attention of journalists or the general public. One topic that has done so, however, is the potential benefits of bilingualism for general cognitive functioning and development, and as a precaution against cognitive decline in old age. Sensational claims have been made in the public domain, mostly by journalists and politicians. Recently (September 4, 2014) The Guardian reported that “learning a foreign language can increase the size of your brain”, and Michael Gove, the UK's previous Education Secretary, noted in an interview with The Guardian (September 30, 2011) that “learning languages makes you smarter”. The present issue of BLC addresses these topics by providing a state-of-the-art overview of theoretical and experimental research on the role of bilingualism for cognition in children and adults.
Towards the assimilation of tree-ring-width records using ensemble Kalman filtering techniques
(2015)
This paper investigates the applicability of the Vaganov–Shashkin–Lite (VSL) forward model for tree-ring-width chronologies as observation operator within a proxy data assimilation (DA) setting. Based on the principle of limiting factors, VSL combines temperature and moisture time series in a nonlinear fashion to obtain simulated TRW chronologies. When used as observation operator, this modelling approach implies three compounding, challenging features: (1) time averaging, (2) “switching recording” of 2 variables and (3) bounded response windows leading to “thresholded response”. We generate pseudo-TRW observations from a chaotic 2-scale dynamical system, used as a cartoon of the atmosphere-land system, and attempt to assimilate them via ensemble Kalman filtering techniques. Results within our simplified setting reveal that VSL’s nonlinearities may lead to considerable loss of assimilation skill, as compared to the utilization of a time-averaged (TA) linear observation operator. In order to understand this undesired effect, we embed VSL’s formulation into the framework of fuzzy logic (FL) theory, which thereby exposes multiple representations of the principle of limiting factors. DA experiments employing three alternative growth rate functions disclose a strong link between the lack of smoothness of the growth rate function and the loss of optimality in the estimate of the TA state. Accordingly, VSL’s performance as observation operator can be enhanced by resorting to smoother FL representations of the principle of limiting factors. This finding fosters new interpretations of tree-ring-growth limitation processes.
Supernova remnants (SNRs) are among the most important targets for gamma-ray observatories. Being prominent non-thermal sources, they are very likely responsible for the acceleration of the bulk of Galactic cosmic rays (CRS). To firmly establish the SNR paradigm for the origin of cosmic rays, it should be confirmed that protons are indeed accelerated in, and released from, SNRs with the appropriate flux and spectrum. This can be done by detailed theoretical models which account for microphysics of acceleration and various radiation processes of hadrons and leptons. The current generation of Cherenkov telescopes has insufficient sensitivity to constrain theoretical models. A new facility, the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), will have superior capabilities and may finally resolve this long standing issue of high-energy astrophysics. We want to assess the capabilities of CTA to reveal the physics of various types of SNRs in the initial 2000 years of their evolution. During this time, the efficiency to accelerate cosmic rays is highest. We perform time-dependent simulations of the hydrodynamics, the magnetic fields, the cosmic-ray acceleration, and the non-thermal emission for type Ia, Ic and IIP SNRs. We calculate the CTA response to the y-ray emission from these SNRs for various ages and distances, and we perform a realistic analysis of the simulated data. We derive distance limits for the detectability and resolvability of these SNR types at several ages. We test the ability of CTA to reconstruct their morphological and spectral parameters as a function of their distance. Finally, we estimate how well CTA data will constrain the theoretical models. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The mechanisms by which climate and vegetation affect erosion rates over various time scales lie at the heart of understanding landscape response to climate change. Plot-scale field experiments show that increased vegetation cover slows erosion, implying that faster erosion should occur under low to moderate vegetation cover. However, demonstrating this concept over long time scales and across landscapes has proven to be difficult, especially in settings complicated by tectonic forcing and variable slopes. We investigate this problem by measuring cosmogenic Be-10-derived catchment-mean denudation rates across a range of climate zones and hillslope gradients in the Kenya Rift, and by comparing our results with those published from the Rwenzori Mountains of Uganda. We find that denudation rates from sparsely vegetated parts of the Kenya Rift are up to 0.13 mm/yr, while those from humid and more densely vegetated parts of the Kenya Rift flanks and the Rwenzori Mountains reach a maximum of 0.08 mm/yr, despite higher median hillslope gradients. While differences in lithology and recent land-use changes likely affect the denudation rates and vegetation cover values in some of our studied catchments, hillslope gradient and vegetation cover appear to explain most of the variation in denudation rates across the study area. Our results support the idea that changing vegetation cover can contribute to complex erosional responses to climate or land-use change and that vegetation cover can play an important role in determining the steady-state slopes of mountain belts through its stabilizing effects on the land surface.
Aging is a highly controlled biological process characterized by a progressive deterioration of various cellular activities. One of several hallmarks of aging describes a link to transcriptional alteration, suggesting that it may impact the steady-state mRNA levels. We analyzed the mRNA steady-state levels of polyCAG-encoding transgenes and endogenous genes under the control of well-characterized promoters for intestinal (vha-6), muscular (unc-54, unc-15) and pan-neuronal (rgef-1, unc-119) expression in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. We find that there is not a uniform change in transcriptional profile in aging, but rather a tissue-specific difference in the mRNA levels of these genes. While levels of mRNA in the intestine (vha-6) and muscular (unc-54, unc-15) cells decline with age, pan-neuronal tissue shows more stable mRNA expression (rgef-1, unc-119) which even slightly increases with the age of the animals. Our data on the variations in the mRNA abundance from exemplary cases of endogenous and transgenic gene expression contribute to the emerging evidence for tissue-specific variations in the aging process.
We assessed intra-individual variability of response times (RT) and single-trial P3 amplitudes following targets in healthy adults during a Flanker/NO-GO task. RT variability and variability of the neural responses coupled at the faster frequencies examined (0.07-0.17 Hz) at Pz, the target-P3 maxima, despite non-significant associations for overall variability (standard deviation, SD). Frequency-specific patterns of variability in the single-trial P3 may help to understand the neurophysiology of RT variability and its explanatory models of attention allocation deficits beyond intra-individual variability summary indices such as SD.
A concentrated solution of a symmetric triblock copolymer with a thermoresponsive poly(methoxy diethylene glycol acrylate) (PMDEGA) middle block and short hydrophobic, fully deuterated polystyrene end blocks is investigated in D2O where it undergoes a lower critical solution temperature-type phase transition at ca. 36 A degrees C. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) in a wide temperature range (15-50 A degrees C) is used to characterize the size and inner structure of the micelles as well as the correlation between the micelles and the formation of aggregates by the micelles above the cloud point (CP). A model featuring spherical core-shell micelles, which are correlated by a hard-sphere potential or a sticky hard-sphere potential together with a Guinier form factor describing aggregates formed by the micelles above the CP, fits the SANS curves well in the entire temperature range. The thickness of the thermoresponsive micellar PMDEGA shell as well as the hard-sphere radius increase slightly already below the cloud point. Whereas the thickness of the thermoresponsive micellar shell hardly shrinks when heating through the CP and up to 50 A degrees C, the hard-sphere radius decreases within 3.5 K at the CP. The volume fraction decreases already significantly below the CP, which may be at the origin of the previously observed gel-sol transition far below the CP (Miasnikova et al., Langmuir 28: 4479-4490, 2012). Above the CP, small, and at higher temperatures, large aggregates are formed by the micelles.
In the last decade, the number and dimensions of catastrophic flooding events in the Niger River Basin (NRB) have markedly increased. Despite the devastating impact of the floods on the population and the mainly agriculturally based economy of the riverine nations, awareness of the hazards in policy and science is still low. The urgency of this topic and the existing research deficits are the motivation for the present dissertation.
The thesis is an initial detailed assessment of the increasing flood risk in the NRB. The research strategy is based on four questions regarding (1) features of the change in flood risk, (2) reasons for the change in the flood regime, (3) expected changes of the flood regime given climate and land use changes, and (4) recommendations from previous analysis for reducing the flood risk in the NRB.
The question examining the features of change in the flood regime is answered by means of statistical analysis. Trend, correlation, changepoint, and variance analyses show that, in addition to the factors exposure and vulnerability, the hazard itself has also increased significantly in the NRB, in accordance with the decadal climate pattern of West Africa. The northern arid and semi-arid parts of the NRB are those most affected by the changes.
As potential reasons for the increase in flood magnitudes, climate and land use changes are attributed by means of a hypothesis-testing framework. Two different approaches, based on either data analysis or simulation, lead to similar results, showing that the influence of climatic changes is generally larger compared to that of land use changes. Only in the dry areas of the NRB is the influence of land use changes comparable to that of climatic alterations.
Future changes of the flood regime are evaluated using modelling results. First ensembles of statistically and dynamically downscaled climate models based on different emission scenarios are analyzed. The models agree with a distinct increase in temperature. The precipitation signal, however, is not coherent. The climate scenarios are used to drive an eco-hydrological model. The influence of climatic changes on the flood regime is uncertain due to the unclear precipitation signal. Still, in general, higher flood peaks are expected. In a next step, effects of land use changes are integrated into the model. Different scenarios show that regreening might help to reduce flood peaks. In contrast, an expansion of agriculture might enhance the flood peaks in the NRB. Similarly to the analysis of observed changes in the flood regime, the impacts of climate- and land use changes for the future scenarios are also most severe in the dry areas of the NRB.
In order to answer the final research question, the results of the above analysis are integrated into a range of recommendations for science and policy on how to reduce flood risk in the NRB. The main recommendations include a stronger consideration of the enormous natural climate variability in the NRB and a focus on so called “no-regret” adaptation strategies which account for high uncertainty, as well as a stronger consideration of regional differences. Regarding the prevention and mitigation of catastrophic flooding, the most vulnerable and sensitive areas in the basin, the arid and semi-arid Sahelian and Sudano-Sahelian regions, should be prioritized. Eventually, an active, science-based and science-guided flood policy is recommended. The enormous population growth in the NRB in connection with the expected deterioration of environmental and climatic conditions is likely to enhance the region´s vulnerability to flooding. A smart and sustainable flood policy can help mitigate these negative impacts of flooding on the development of riverine societies in West Africa.
Climate or Land Use?
(2015)
This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950-2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability.
Purpose: Ethnic minority groups show elevated suicide attempt rates across Europe. Evidence suggests a similar trend for women of Turkish origin in Germany, yet data on suicidal behaviour in minorities in Germany is scarce. The objective was to examine rates of suicidal behaviour, underlying motives, and to explore the effectiveness of an intervention program.
Methods: From 05/2009-09/2011, data on all suicide attempts among women of Turkish origin who presented at a hospital-based emergency unit in Berlin, Germany, were collected. A multi-modal intervention was conducted in 2010 and the effects of age, generation and the intervention on suicide attempt rates were examined.
Results: At the start, the highest rate was found in women aged 18-24 years with 225.4 (95% CI = 208.8-242.0)/100,000. Adjustment disorder was the most prevalent diagnosis with 49.7% (n = 79), being more common in second-generation women (P = .004). Further analyses suggested an effect of the intervention in the youngest age group (trend change of beta = -1.25; P = .017).
Conclusion: Our findings suggest a particularly high rate of suicide attempts by 18-24-year-old, second-generation women of Turkish origin in Berlin. Furthermore, our results suggest a trend change in suicide attempts in women aged 18-24 years related to a population-based intervention program. (C) 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Samples of 474 forest stands in Germany were analysed for concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in three sampling depths. Enhanced concentrations were mainly found at spots relatively close to densely industrialized and urbanized regions and at some topographically elevated areas. Average enrichment factors between mineral soil and humic layer depend on humus type i.e. decrease from mull via moder to more Based on their compound-patterns, the observed samples could be assigned to three main clusters. For some parts of our study area a uniform assignment of samples to clusters over larger regions could be identified. For instance, samples taken at vicinity to brown-coal strip-mining districts are characterized by high relative abundances of low-molecular-weight PAHs. These results suggest that PAHs are more likely originated from local and regional emitters rather than from long-range transport and that specific source-regions can be identified based on PAH fingerprints. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Central Asia is located at the confluence of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems. It is thus likely to be highly susceptible to changes in the dynamics of those systems; however, little is still known about the regional paleoclimate history. Here we present carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of n-alkanoic acids from a late Holocene sediment core from Lake Karakuli (eastern Pamir, Xinjiang Province, China). Instrumental evidence and isotopeenabled climate model experiments with the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique Zoom model version 4 (LMDZ4) demonstrate that delta D values of precipitation in the region are influenced by both temperature and precipitation amount. We find that these parameters are inversely correlated on an annual scale, i.e., the climate has varied between relatively cool and wet and more warm and dry over the last 50 years. Since the isotopic signals of these changes are in the same direction and therefore additive, isotopes in precipitation are sensitive recorders of climatic changes in the region. Additionally, we infer that plants use year-round precipitation (including snowmelt), and thus leaf wax delta D values must also respond to shifts in the proportion of moisture derived from westerly storms during late winter and early spring. Downcore results give evidence for a gradual shift to cooler and wetter climates between 3.5 and 2.5 cal kyr BP, interrupted by a warm and dry episode between 3.0 and 2.7 kyr BP. Further cool and wet episodes occur between 1.9 and 1.5 and between 0.6 and 0.1 kyr BP, the latter coeval with the Little Ice Age. Warm and dry episodes from 2.5 to 1.9 and 1.5 to 0.6 kyr BP coincide with the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly, respectively. Finally, we find a drying tend in recent decades. Regional comparisons lead us to infer that the strength and position of the westerlies, and wider northern hemispheric climate dynamics, control climatic shifts in arid Central Asia, leading to complex local responses. Our new archive from Lake Karakuli provides a detailed record of the local signatures of these climate transitions in the eastern Pamir.
Central Asia is located at the confluence of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems. It is thus likely to be highly susceptible to changes in the dynamics of those systems; however, little is still known about the regional paleoclimate history. Here we present carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of n-alkanoic acids from a late Holocene sediment core from Lake Karakuli (eastern Pamir, Xinjiang Province, China). Instrumental evidence and isotopeenabled climate model experiments with the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique Zoom model version 4 (LMDZ4) demonstrate that delta D values of precipitation in the region are influenced by both temperature and precipitation amount. We find that these parameters are inversely correlated on an annual scale, i.e., the climate has varied between relatively cool and wet and more warm and dry over the last 50 years. Since the isotopic signals of these changes are in the same direction and therefore additive, isotopes in precipitation are sensitive recorders of climatic changes in the region. Additionally, we infer that plants use year-round precipitation (including snowmelt), and thus leaf wax delta D values must also respond to shifts in the proportion of moisture derived from westerly storms during late winter and early spring. Downcore results give evidence for a gradual shift to cooler and wetter climates between 3.5 and 2.5 cal kyr BP, interrupted by a warm and dry episode between 3.0 and 2.7 kyr BP. Further cool and wet episodes occur between 1.9 and 1.5 and between 0.6 and 0.1 kyr BP, the latter coeval with the Little Ice Age. Warm and dry episodes from 2.5 to 1.9 and 1.5 to 0.6 kyr BP coincide with the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly, respectively. Finally, we find a drying tend in recent decades. Regional comparisons lead us to infer that the strength and position of the westerlies, and wider northern hemispheric climate dynamics, control climatic shifts in arid Central Asia, leading to complex local responses. Our new archive from Lake Karakuli provides a detailed record of the local signatures of these climate transitions in the eastern Pamir.
We study the possibility of obtaining a computational turbulence model by means of non-dissipative regularisation of the compressible atmospheric equations for climate-type applications. We use an -regularisation (Lagrangian averaging) of the atmospheric equations. For the hydrostatic and compressible atmospheric equations discretised using a finite volume method on unstructured grids, deterministic and non-deterministic numerical experiments are conducted to compare the individual solutions and the statistics of the regularised equations to those of the original model. The impact of the regularisation parameter is investigated. Our results confirm the principal compatibility of -regularisation with atmospheric dynamics and encourage further investigations within atmospheric model including complex physical parametrisations.
This paper reopens the discussion on focus marking in Akan (Kwa,
Niger-Congo) by examining the semantics of the so-called focus marker
in the language. It is shown that the so-called focus marker expresses
exhaustivity when it occurs in a sentence with narrow focus. The study
employs four standard tests for exhaustivity proposed in the literature
to examine the semantics of Akan focus constructions (Szabolsci 1981,
1994; É. Kiss 1998; Hartmann and Zimmermann 2007). It is shown that
although a focused entity with the so-called focus marker nà is
interpreted to mean ‘only X and nothing/nobody else,’ this meaning
appears to be pragmatic.
Plant communities are often dispersal-limited and zoochory can be an efficient mechanism for plants to colonize new patches of potentially suitable habitat. We predicted that seed dispersal by ungulates acts as an ecological filter - which differentially affects individuals according to their characteristics and shapes species assemblages - and that the filter varies according to the dispersal mechanism (endozoochory, fur-epizoochory and hoof-epizoochory). We conducted two-step individual participant data meta-analyses of 52 studies on plant dispersal by ungulates in fragmented landscapes, comparing eight plant traits and two habitat indicators between dispersed and non-dispersed plants. We found that ungulates dispersed at least 44% of the available plant species. Moreover, some plant traits and habitat indicators increased the likelihood for plant of being dispersed. Persistent or nitrophilous plant species from open habitats or bearing dry or elongated diaspores were more likely to be dispersed by ungulates, whatever the dispersal mechanism. In addition, endozoochory was more likely for diaspores bearing elongated appendages whereas epizoochory was more likely for diaspores released relatively high in vegetation. Hoof-epizoochory was more likely for light diaspores without hooked appendages. Fur-epizoochory was more likely for diaspores with appendages, particularly elongated or hooked ones. We thus observed a gradient of filtering effect among the three dispersal mechanisms. Endozoochory had an effect of rather weak intensity (impacting six plant characteristics with variations between ungulate-dispersed and non-dispersed plant species mostly below 25%), whereas hoof-epizoochory had a stronger effect (eight characteristics included five ones with above 75% variation), and fur-epizoochory an even stronger one (nine characteristics included six ones with above 75% variation). Our results demonstrate that seed dispersal by ungulates is an ecological filter whose intensity varies according to the dispersal mechanism considered. Ungulates can thus play a key role in plant community dynamics and have implications for plant spatial distribution patterns at multiple scales.
Professional and amateur astronomers around the world contributed to a 4-month long campaign in 2013, mainly in spectroscopy but also in photometry, interferometry and polarimetry, to observe the first 3 Wolf-Rayet stars discovered: WR 134 (WN6b), WR 135 (WC8) and WR 137 (WC7pd+O9). Each of these stars are interesting in their own way, showing a variety of stellar wind structures. The spectroscopic data from this campaign were reduced and analyzed for WR 134 in order to better understand its behavior and long-term periodicity in the context of CIRs in the wind. We will be presenting the results of these spectroscopic data, which include the confirmation of the CIR variability and a time-coherency of ∼ 40 days (half-life of ∼ 20 days).
Context. Blazars are variable sources on various timescales over a broad energy range spanning from radio to very high energy (>100 GeV, hereafter VHE). Mrk 501 is one of the brightest blazars at TeV energies and has been extensively studied since its first VHE detection in 1996. However, most of the gamma-ray studies performed on Mrk 501 during the past years relate to flaring activity, when the source detection and characterization with the available gamma-ray instrumentation was easier to perform.
Aims. Our goal is to characterize the source gamma-ray emission in detail, together with the radio-to-X-ray emission, during the non-flaring (low) activity, which is less often studied than the occasional flaring (high) activity.
Methods. We organized a multiwavelength (MW) campaign on Mrk 501 between March and May 2008. This multi-instrument effort included the most sensitive VHE gamma-ray instruments in the northern hemisphere, namely the imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes MAGIC and VERITAS, as well as Swift, RXTE, the F-GAMMA, GASP-WEBT, and other collaborations and instruments. This provided extensive energy and temporal coverage of Mrk 501 throughout the entire campaign.
Results. Mrk 501 was found to be in a low state of activity during the campaign, with a VHE flux in the range of 10%-20% of the Crab nebula flux. Nevertheless, significant flux variations were detected with various instruments, with a trend of increasing variability with energy and a tentative correlation between the X-ray and VHE fluxes. The broadband spectral energy distribution during the two different emission states of the campaign can be adequately described within the homogeneous one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model, with the (slightly) higher state described by an increase in the electron number density.
Conclusions. The one-zone SSC model can adequately describe the broadband spectral energy distribution of the source during the two months covered by the MW campaign. This agrees with previous studies of the broadband emission of this source during flaring and non-flaring states. We report for the first time a tentative X-ray-to-VHE correlation during such a low VHE activity. Although marginally significant, this positive correlation between X-ray and VHE, which has been reported many times during flaring activity, suggests that the mechanisms that dominate the X-ray/VHE emission during non-flaring-activity are not substantially different from those that are responsible for the emission during flaring activity.
Aims. We perform an extensive characterization of the broadband emission of Mrk 421, as well as its temporal evolution, during the non-flaring (low) state. The high brightness and nearby location (z = 0.031) of Mrk 421 make it an excellent laboratory to study blazar emission. The goal is to learn about the physical processes responsible for the typical emission of Mrk 421, which might also be extended to other blazars that are located farther away and hence are more difficult to study.
Methods. We performed a 4.5-month multi-instrument campaign on Mrk 421 between January 2009 and June 2009, which included VLBA, F-GAMMA, GASP-WEBT, Swift, RXTE, Fermi-LAT, MAGIC, and Whipple, among other instruments and collaborations. This extensive radio to very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray dataset provides excellent temporal and energy coverage, which allows detailed studies of the evolution of the broadband spectral energy distribution.
Results. Mrk421 was found in its typical (non-flaring) activity state, with a VHE flux of about half that of the Crab Nebula, yet the light curves show significant variability at all wavelengths, the highest variability being in the X-rays. We determined the power spectral densities (PSD) at most wavelengths and found that all PSDs can be described by power-laws without a break, and with indices consistent with pink/red-noise behavior. We observed a harder-when-brighter behavior in the X-ray spectra and measured a positive correlation between VHE and X-ray fluxes with zero time lag. Such characteristics have been reported many times during flaring activity, but here they are reported for the first time in the non-flaring state. We also observed an overall anti-correlation between optical /UV and X-rays extending over the duration of the campaign.
Conclusions. The harder-when-brighter behavior in the X-ray spectra and the measured positive X-ray/VHE correlation during the 2009 multiwavelength campaign suggests that the physical processes dominating the emission during non-flaring states have similarities with those occurring during flaring activity. In particular, this observation supports leptonic scenarios as being responsible for the emission of Mrk 421 during non-flaring activity. Such a temporally extended X-ray /VHE correlation is not driven by any single flaring event, and hence is difficult to explain within the standard hadronic scenarios. The highest variability is observed in the X-ray band, which, within the one-zone synchrotron self-Compton scenario, indicates that the electron energy distribution is most variable at the highest energies.
Unprecedented study of the broadband emission of Mrk 421 during flaring activity in March 2010
(2015)
Context. Because of its proximity, Mrk 421 is one of the best sources on which to study the nature of BL Lac objects. Its proximity allows us to characterize its broadband spectral energy distribution (SED).
Aims. The goal is to better understand the mechanisms responsible for the broadband emission and the temporal evolution of Mrk 421. These mechanisms may also apply to more distant blazars that cannot be studied with the same level of detail.
Methods. A flare occurring in March 2010 was observed for 13 consecutive days (from MJD 55 265 to MJD 55 277) with unprecedented wavelength coverage from radio to very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-rays with MAGIC, VERITAS, Whipple, Fermi-LAT, MAXI, RXTE, Swift, GASP-WEBT, and several optical and radio telescopes. We modeled the day-scale SEDs with one-zone and two-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) models, investigated the physical parameters, and evaluated whether the observed broadband SED variability can be associated with variations in the relativistic particle population.
Results. The activity of Mrk 421 initially was high and then slowly decreased during the 13-day period. The flux variability was remarkable at the X-ray and VHE bands, but it was minor or not significant at the other bands. The variability in optical polarization was also minor. These observations revealed an almost linear correlation between the X-ray flux at the 2-10 keV band and the VHE gamma-ray flux above 200 GeV, consistent with the gamma-rays being produced by inverse-Compton scattering in the Klein-Nishina regime in the framework of SSC models. The one-zone SSC model can describe the SED of each day for the 13 consecutive days reasonably well, which once more shows the success of this standard theoretical scenario to describe the SEDs of VHE BL Lacs such as Mrk 421. This flaring activity is also very well described by a two-zone SSC model, where one zone is responsible for the quiescent emission, while the other smaller zone, which is spatially separated from the first, contributes to the daily variable emission occurring at X-rays and VHE gamma-rays. The second blob is assumed to have a smaller volume and a narrow electron energy distribution with 3 x 10(4) < gamma < 6 x 10(5), where. is the Lorentz factor of the electrons. Such a two-zone scenario would naturally lead to the correlated variability at the X-ray and VHE bands without variability at the optical/UV band, as well as to shorter timescales for the variability at the X-ray and VHE bands with respect to the variability at the other bands.
Conclusions. Both the one-zone and the two-zone SSC models can describe the daily SEDs via the variation of only four or five model parameters, under the hypothesis that the variability is associated mostly with the underlying particle population. This shows that the particle acceleration and cooling mechanism that produces the radiating particles might be the main mechanism responsible for the broadband SED variations during the flaring episodes in blazars. The two-zone SSC model provides a better agreement with the observed SED at the narrow peaks of the low-and high-energy bumps during the highest activity, although the reported one-zone SSC model could be further improved by varying the parameters related to the emitting region itself (delta, B and R), in addition to the parameters related to the particle population.
We present the results of 71.6 hr of observations of the Geminga pulsar (PSR J0633+1746) with the VERITAS very-high-energy gamma-ray telescope array. Data taken with VERITAS between 2007 November and 2013 February were phase-folded using a Geminga pulsar timing solution derived from data recorded by the XMM-Newton and Fermi-LAT space telescopes. No significant pulsed emission above 100 GeV is observed, and we report upper limits at the 95% confidence level on the integral flux above 135 GeV (spectral analysis threshold) of 4.0x10(-13) s(-1) cm(-2) and 1.7 x 10(-13) s(-1) cm(-2) for the two principal peaks in the emission profile. These upper limits, placed in context with phase-resolved spectral energy distributions determined from 5 yr of data from the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT), constrain possible hardening of the Geminga pulsar emission spectra above similar to 50 GeV.
We present results from VERITAS observations of the BL Lac object PG 1553+113 spanning the years 2010, 2011, and 2012. The time-averaged spectrum, measured between 160 and 560 GeV, is well described by a power law with a spectral index of 4.33 +/- 0.09. The time-averaged integral flux above 200 GeV measured for this period was (1.69 +/- 0.06) x 10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1), corresponding to 6.9% of the Crab Nebula flux. We also present the combined gamma-ray spectrum from the Fermi Large Area Telescope and VERITAS covering an energy range from 100 MeV to 560 GeV. The data are well fit by a power law with an exponential cutoff at 101.9 +/- 3.2 GeV. The origin of the cutoff could be intrinsic to PG 1553+113 or be due to the gamma-ray opacity of our universe through pair production off the extragalactic background light (EBL). Given lower limits to the redshift of z > 0.395 based on optical/UV observations of PG 1553+113, the cutoff would be dominated by EBL absorption. Conversely, the small statistical uncertainties of the VERITAS energy spectrum have allowed us to provide a robust upper limit on the redshift of PG 1553+113 of z <= 0.62. A strongly elevated mean flux of (2.50 +/- 0.14) x10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1) (10.3% of the Crab Nebula flux) was observed during 2012, with the daily flux reaching as high as (4.44 +/- 0.71) x10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1) (18.3% of the Crab Nebula flux) on MJD 56048. The light curve measured during the 2012 observing season is marginally inconsistent with a steady flux, giving a chi(2) probability for a steady flux of 0.03%.
Global change, especially land-use intensification, affects human well-being by impacting the delivery of multiple ecosystem services (multifunctionality). However, whether biodiversity loss is a major component of global change effects on multifunctionality in real-world ecosystems, as in experimental ones, remains unclear. Therefore, we assessed biodiversity, functional composition and 14 ecosystem services on 150 agricultural grasslands differing in land-use intensity. We also introduce five multifunctionality measures in which ecosystem services were weighted according to realistic land-use objectives. We found that indirect land-use effects, i.e. those mediated by biodiversity loss and by changes to functional composition, were as strong as direct effects on average. Their strength varied with land-use objectives and regional context. Biodiversity loss explained indirect effects in a region of intermediate productivity and was most damaging when land-use objectives favoured supporting and cultural services. In contrast, functional composition shifts, towards fast-growing plant species, strongly increased provisioning services in more inherently unproductive grasslands.
The networks of predator-prey interactions in ecological systems are remarkably complex, but nevertheless surprisingly stable in terms of long term persistence of the system as a whole. In order to understand the mechanism driving the complexity and stability of such food webs, we developed an eco-evolutionary model in which new species emerge as modifications of existing ones and dynamic ecological interactions determine which species are viable. The food-web structure thereby emerges from the dynamical interplay between speciation and trophic interactions. The proposed model is less abstract than earlier evolutionary food web models in the sense that all three evolving traits have a clear biological meaning, namely the average body mass of the individuals, the preferred prey body mass, and the width of their potential prey body mass spectrum. We observed networks with a wide range of sizes and structures and high similarity to natural food webs. The model networks exhibit a continuous species turnover, but massive extinction waves that affect more than 50% of the network are not observed.
Topographic migration of 2D and 3D ground-penetrating radar data considering variable velocities
(2015)
We present a 2D/3D topographic migration scheme for ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data which is able to account for variable velocities by using the root mean square (rms) velocity approximation. We test our migration scheme using a synthetic 2D example and compare our migrated image to the results obtained using common GPR migration approaches. Furthermore, we apply it to 2D and 3D field data. These examples are recorded across common subsurface settings including surface topography and variations in the GPR subsurface velocity field caused by a shallow ground water table. In such field settings, our migration strategy provides well focused images of commonoffset GPR data without the need for a detailed interval velocity model. The synthetic and field examples demonstrate that our topographic migration scheme allows for accurate GPR imaging in the presence of variations in surface topography and subsurface velocity.
Flow phenomena in the unsaturated zone are highly variable in time and space. Thus, it is challenging to measure and monitor such processes under field conditions. Here, we present a new setup and interpretation approach for combining a dye tracer experiment with a 4D ground-penetrating radar (GPR) survey. Therefore, we designed a rainfall experiment during which we measured three surface-based 3D GPR surveys using a pair of 500 MHz antennas. Such a survey setup requires accurate acquisition and processing techniquesto extract time-lapse information supporting the interpretation of selected cross-sections photographed after excavating the site. Our results reveal patterns of traveltime changes in the measured GPR data, which are associated with soil moisture changes. As distinct horizons are present at our site, such changes can be quantified and transferred into changes in total soil moisture content. Our soil moisture estimates are similar to the amount of infiltrated water, which confirms our experimental approach and makes us confident for further developing this strategy, especially, with respect to improving the temporal and spatial resolution. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Mapping urban forest leaf area index with airborne lidar using penetration metrics and allometry
(2015)
In urban areas, leaf area index (LAI) is a key ecosystem structural attribute with implications for energy and water balance, gas exchange, and anthropogenic energy use. In this study, we estimated LAI spatially using airborne lidar in downtown Santa Barbara, California, USA. We implemented two different modeling approaches. First, we directly estimated effective LAI (LAIe) using scan angle- and clump-corrected lidar laser penetration metrics (LPM). Second, we adapted existing allometric equations to estimate crown structural metrics including tree height and crown base height using lidar. The latter approach allowed for LAI estimates at the individual tree-crown scale. The LPM method, at both high and decimated point densities, resulted in good linear agreement with estimates from ground-based hemispherical photography (r(2) = 0.82, y = 0.99x) using a model that assumed a spherical leaf angle distribution. Within individual tree crown segments, the lidar estimates of crown structure closely paralleled field measurements (e.g., r(2) = 0.87 for crown length). LAI estimates based on the lidar crown measurements corresponded well with estimates from field measurements (r(2) = 0.84, y = 0.97x + 0.10). Consistency of the LPM and allometric lidar methods was also strong at 71 validation plots (r(2) = 0.88) and at 450 additional sample locations across the entire study area (r(2) = 0.72). This level of correspondence exceeded that of the canopy hemispherical photography and allometric, ground-based estimates (r(2) = 0.53). The first-order alignment of these two disparate methods may indicate that the error bounds for mapping LAI in cities are small enough to pursue large scale, spatially explicit estimation. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved.
We define weak boundary values of solutions to those nonlinear differential equations which appear as Euler-Lagrange equations of variational problems. As a result we initiate the theory of Lagrangian boundary value problems in spaces of appropriate smoothness. We also analyse if the concept of mapping degree of current importance applies to the study of Lagrangian problems.
A large-scale metabolic quantitative trait loci (mQTL) analysis was performed on the well-characterized Solanum pennellii introgression lines to investigate the genomic regions associated with secondary metabolism in tomato fruit pericarp. In total, 679 mQTLs were detected across the 76 introgression lines. Heritability analyses revealed that mQTLs of secondary metabolism were less affected by environment than mQTLs of primary metabolism. Network analysis allowed us to assess the interconnectivity of primary and secondary metabolism as well as to compare and contrast their respective associations with morphological traits. Additionally, we applied a recently established real-time quantitative PCR platform to gain insight into transcriptional control mechanisms of a subset of the mQTLs, including those for hydroxycinnamates, acyl-sugar, naringenin chalcone, and a range of glycoalkaloids. Intriguingly, many of these compounds displayed a dominant-negative mode of inheritance, which is contrary to the conventional wisdom that secondary metabolite contents decreased on domestication. We additionally performed an exemplary evaluation of two candidate genes for glycolalkaloid mQTLs via the use of virus-induced gene silencing. The combined data of this study were compared with previous results on primary metabolism obtained from the same material and to other studies of natural variance of secondary metabolism.
Climate impacts on transocean dispersal and habitat in gray whales from the Pleistocene to 2100
(2015)
Arctic animals face dramatic habitat alteration due to ongoing climate change. Understanding how such species have responded to past glacial cycles can help us forecast their response to today's changing climate. Gray whales are among those marine species likely to be strongly affected by Arctic climate change, but a thorough analysis of past climate impacts on this species has been complicated by lack of information about an extinct population in the Atlantic. While little is known about the history of Atlantic gray whales or their relationship to the extant Pacific population, the extirpation of the Atlantic population during historical times has been attributed to whaling. We used a combination of ancient and modern DNA, radiocarbon dating and predictive habitat modelling to better understand the distribution of gray whales during the Pleistocene and Holocene. Our results reveal that dispersal between the Pacific and Atlantic was climate dependent and occurred both during the Pleistocene prior to the last glacial period and the early Holocene immediately following the opening of the Bering Strait. Genetic diversity in the Atlantic declined over an extended interval that predates the period of intensive commercial whaling, indicating this decline may have been precipitated by Holocene climate or other ecological causes. These first genetic data for Atlantic gray whales, particularly when combined with predictive habitat models for the year 2100, suggest that two recent sightings of gray whales in the Atlantic may represent the beginning of the expansion of this species' habitat beyond its currently realized range.
Climate impacts on transocean dispersal and habitat in gray whales from the Pleistocene to 2100
(2015)
Arctic animals face dramatic habitat alteration due to ongoing climate change. Understanding how such species have responded to past glacial cycles can help us forecast their response to today's changing climate. Gray whales are among those marine species likely to be strongly affected by Arctic climate change, but a thorough analysis of past climate impacts on this species has been complicated by lack of information about an extinct population in the Atlantic. While little is known about the history of Atlantic gray whales or their relationship to the extant Pacific population, the extirpation of the Atlantic population during historical times has been attributed to whaling. We used a combination of ancient and modern DNA, radiocarbon dating and predictive habitat modelling to better understand the distribution of gray whales during the Pleistocene and Holocene. Our results reveal that dispersal between the Pacific and Atlantic was climate dependent and occurred both during the Pleistocene prior to the last glacial period and the early Holocene immediately following the opening of the Bering Strait. Genetic diversity in the Atlantic declined over an extended interval that predates the period of intensive commercial whaling, indicating this decline may have been precipitated by Holocene climate or other ecological causes. These first genetic data for Atlantic gray whales, particularly when combined with predictive habitat models for the year 2100, suggest that two recent sightings of gray whales in the Atlantic may represent the beginning of the expansion of this species' habitat beyond its currently realized range.
In this paper a technique to obtain a first approximation for singular inverse Sturm-Liouville problems with a symmetrical potential is introduced. The singularity, as a result of unbounded domain (-infinity, infinity), is treated by considering numerically the asymptotic limit of the associated problem on a finite interval (-L, L). In spite of this treatment, the problem has still an ill-conditioned structure unlike the classical regular ones and needs regularization techniques. Direct computation of eigenvalues in iterative solution procedure is made by means of pseudospectral methods. A fairly detailed description of the numerical algorithm and its applications to specific examples are presented to illustrate the accuracy and convergence behaviour of the proposed approach.