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Predictability of hydrologic response at the plot and catchment scales: Role of initial conditions
(2004)
This paper examines the effect of uncertain initial soil moisture on hydrologic response at the plot scale (1 m2) and the catchment scale (3.6 km2) in the presence of threshold transitions between matrix and preferential flow. We adopt the concepts of microstates and macrostates from statistical mechanics. The microstates are the detailed patterns of initial soil moisture that are inherently unknown, while the macrostates are specified by the statistical distributions of initial soil moisture that can be derived from the measurements typically available in field experiments. We use a physically based model and ensure that it closely represents the processes in the Weiherbach catchment, Germany. We then use the model to generate hydrologic response to hypothetical irrigation events and rainfall events for multiple realizations of initial soil moisture microstates that are all consistent with the same macrostate. As the measures of uncertainty at the plot scale we use the coefficient of variation and the scaled range of simulated vertical bromide transport distances between realizations. At the catchment scale we use similar statistics derived from simulated flood peak discharges. The simulations indicate that at both scales the predictability depends on the average initial soil moisture state and is at a minimum around the soil moisture value where the transition from matrix to macropore flow occurs. The predictability increases with rainfall intensity. The predictability increases with scale with maximum absolute errors of 90 and 32% at the plot scale and the catchment scale, respectively. It is argued that even if we assume perfect knowledge on the processes, the level of detail with which one can measure the initial conditions along with the nonlinearity of the system will set limits to the repeatability of experiments and limits to the predictability of models at the plot and catchment scales.
The article starts with an overview of modernization theories, its history of ups and downs as well as its present status. This first part is followed by an analysis of basic social structure distributions and trends in human development in selected countries. One major focal point of the paper is the Non-Western world and the Arab countries, in particular. The author looks at modernization and modernity in that region and comes to the conclusion that the Western world can no longer expect to be able to simply export its own values and its way of life to the rest of the world.
In einer Laengsschnittstudie wird die Entwicklung von Motivationskomponenten zum Lernen in Mathematik von der fuenften bis zur neunten Klassenstufe untersucht. Motivationskomponenten wurden mit dem "Potsdamer Motivations-Inventar" erfasst, die Bezugsnormorientierung der Lehrer sowie das mathematisch-naturwissenschaftliche Anregungsklimas im Elternhaus mit eigens entwickelten Skalen. Daten wurden an einer Stichprobe von urspruenglich zirka 750 Schuelerinnen und Schuelern erhoben. An der dritten Erhebung nahmen nur noch etwa 600 von ihnen teil. Es zeigte sich, dass sich die Mathematiknote am Ende eines Schuljahres sehr gut durch die zu Schulbeginn erfassten Motivationskomponenten vorhersagen laesst. Waehrend das insgesamt geringe Angsterleben im Mathematikunterricht von der fuenften bis zur neunten Klasse stabil blieb, nahm das Sachinteresse kontinuierlich ab. Bei der Einschaetzung des mathematisch-naturwissenschaftlichen Anregungsklimas im Elternhaus fanden sich ueberraschenderweise grosse Unterschiede zwischen Kindern und Eltern. (U.B. - ZPID)
Wandel durch Annäherung : weil unsere Zukunft in Europa liegt, bleibt Deutschland eine zivile Macht
(2004)
Rezensierte Literatur Michael Mann, Die ohnmächtige Supermacht – Warum die USA die Welt nicht regieren können, Campus Verlag, Frankfurt am Main, New York 2003, 357 Seiten, ISBN 3-593-37313-0 Joseph S. Nye Jr., Das Paradox der amerikanischen Macht – Warum die einzige Supermacht der Welt Verbündete braucht, Europäische Verlagsanstalt, Hamburg 2003, 292 Seiten, ISBN 3-434-50552-0 Chalmer Johnson, Der Selbstmord der amerikanischen Demokratie, Karl Blessing Verlag, München 2003, 478 Seiten, ISBN 3-89667-226-6
Islamic movements in Iran
(2004)
The modernist Islamic Movement sought to reconcile modern values and Islamic faith and attempted to express these values through an Islamic discourse and to reform political, religious and educational institutions along modernist lines. However, such a movement in the Islamic Republic of Iran raised controversy among the traditional leadership and secular intellectual groups. The aim of this paper is to discuss how far modernist Islam could progress in an islamic republic with an old tradition.
In vergleichenden Untersuchungen zum Belastungserleben von Schulkindern wird dargestellt, welche Einschätzungen nicht behinderte und lernbehinderte Schülerinnen und Schüler bezüglich ihrer Belastung in schulischen und außer- schulischen Situationen vornehmen. In einem Gruppenvergleich wird herausgearbeitet, inwieweit gemeinsamer Unterricht in einer Allgemeinen Schule vs. dem Unterricht in einer Sonderschule zu Angst- und Stresserleben führt. Diese subjektiv bewussten Einschätzungen der Schülerinnen und Schüler werden mit Ergebnissen aus physiologischen Messungen verglichen, die im Heft 12/ 2002 dieser Zeitschrift dargestellt wurden.
Die Individualbeschwerde nach dem Fakultativprotokoll zum Zivilpakt : ein Handbuch für die Praxis
(2004)
Das vorliegende Handbuch bietet vertiefende Informationen zur Individualbeschwerde nach dem Fakultativprotokoll zum Internationalen Pakt über bürgerliche und politische Rechte. Das Handbuch richtet sich in erster Linie an Praktiker/innen, die in ihrer Arbeit mit Menschenrechtsverletzungen konfrontiert sind, insbesondere Rechtsanwälte und Rechtsanwältinnen sowie Menschenrechtsorganisationen. In umfassender, aber komprimierter Form gibt es zuverlässige Hilfestellung bei der Einlegung einer Beschwerde. Darüber hinaus ist das Handbuch auch für Mitarbeitende in Ministerien, Universitäten und sonstigen Einrichtungen geeignet, die sich mit der Materie vertraut machen wollen. (Autorenreferat)
In the spring issue of WeltTrends, Gunther Hellmann (Johann-Wolfgang-Goethe- Universität Frankfurt a. M.) sparked a debate on Germany’s foreign policy. He argued that Germany’s international behaviour is dominated by a Realpolitik policy generally referred to as "normalization". For Hellmann this transformation indicates "the deepest crisis of German foreign policy" ever. Hellmann proposes a rehabilitation of the tradition of the Bonner Republik and an active Idealpolitik. This summer issue of WeltTrends features eleven articles written in response to Hellmann by International Relations scholars. The debate focuses on analytical as well as normative aspects of current German foreign policy. The authors discuss the context of the European Common Foreign and Security Policy, the international system and the United Nations, historical aspects of German foreign policy and the German foreign policy discourse. While some contributors share Hellmann's idealist position, most challenge his plea from a more realist perspective. In the upcoming fall issue, this debate will be continued with contributions by German foreign policy makers. A final reply by Hellmann will complete the debate in the winter issue of WeltTrends. Contributions by: Franz Ansprenger, Stephan Böckenförde, Wilfried von Bredow, Sabine Busse, Edwina S. Campbell, Hartmut Elsenhans, Hans J. Gießmann, Werner Link, Carlo Masala, Hanns W. Maull, and Siegfried Schwarz.
Die Vision einer Europäischen Außenpolitik zwischen den Supermächten USA und UdSSR prägte die Debatte im Westeuropa der Nachkriegszeit. Lange Zeit glaubten die überzeugten europäischen Protagonisten an die Idee, mittels einer strengen Sachlogik dem Ziel einer politischen Integration zwangsläufig näher zu kommen und eine gemeinschaftliche Außenpolitik zu erreichen, und zwar über die Bildung einer integrierten Wirtschaftsunion hin zu politischen Mechanismen. Man argumentierte mit Nachdruck: Die wirtschaftliche Integration sei nicht nur ein Schritt auf dem Weg zur politischen Vereinigung, sondern bereits ein Teil des Zieles selbst.1 Wie sehr der Glaube an diese Sachlogik im Verlauf der Jahrzehnte getrogen hat, davon zeugen Mühseligkeit, Langwierigkeit und teilweise Ergebnislosigkeit der Anstrengungen, eine gemeinsame europäische Außenpolitik zu schaffen.
Contents: Introduction Experimental Techniques: The LIF demonstrator unit - The LIF demonstrator unit - The mobile LIF spectrometer OPTIMOS - Investigated petroleum products and soil samples Results and Discussion: Photophysical properties of the petroleum products LIF spectroscopic investigations of oil-spiked samples LIF spectroscopic investigations of real-world soils Conclusions
Indonesia’s arduous path to democracy is threatened by several domestic conflicts. Although the civil war in Aceh – a region in the north of Sumatra – has claimed thousands of victims, the incidents have not yet been adequately dealt with – neither in the public domain nor within the scientific community. In May 2003, the Indonesian president, Megawati Sukarnoputri, imposed material law on the Aceh region in order to crack down on the separatist movement Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (GAM). This step does not seem to be in line with serious concepts of democracy and is threatening the consolidation of the transformation process. The author seeks to shed light on the roots of the conflict, the motivation of leading politicians in Jakarta to deploy military means instead of continuing negotiations, and its consequences for the Indonesian process of democratisation.
Die EU-Staaten haben sich lange Zeit in die Rolle der „Vasallen“ und des „Brückenkopfs“ (Brzezinski 1999) gefügt, solange sie sich davon mehr Vor- als Nachteile versprechen konnten. Mit der Ausformung der Europäischen Union zu einem immer kompakteren wirtschaftlichen und finanzpolitischen Machtzentrum wächst auch das Bedürfnis nach einer kohärenteren und durchsetzungsfähigeren regionalen und globalen Interessenwahrnehmung in den internationalen Institutionen, gegenüber anderen Großmächten und regionalen Zusammenschlüssen sowie in gewaltsamen Konflikten, die die Interessen der EU-Staaten tangieren. Dieser Trend wird durch den unilateralen Kurs der Vereinigten Staaten zusätzlich verstärkt, der sich bereits unter der Präsidentschaft Clintons ausformte und unter der Bush-Administration eine bislang nicht gekannte Zuspitzung erfahren hat. Mit der Ablehnung des Kyoto-Protokolls und des Internationalen Strafgerichtshofs, mit der Aufkündigung des ABM-Vertrages, dem Infragestellen des Teststoppabkommens und der Rehabilitierung des Krieges als Mittel der Politik haben die Vereinigten Staaten grundlegende Interessen, Ziele und Standards der EU-Staaten negiert und mithin ihre Gegenwehr herausgefordert.
We develop a cluster expansion in space-time for an infinite-dimensional system of interacting diffusions where the drift term of each diffusion depends on the whole past of the trajectory; these interacting diffusions arise when considering the Langevin dynamics of a ferromagnetic system submitted to a disordered external magnetic field.
The authors analyse different Gibbsian properties of interactive Brownian diffusions X indexed by the d-dimensional lattice. In the first part of the paper, these processes are characterized as Gibbs states on path spaces. In the second part of the paper, they study the Gibbsian character on R^{Z^d} of the law at time t of the infinite-dimensional diffusion X(t), when the initial law is Gibbsian. AMS Classifications: 60G15 , 60G60 , 60H10 , 60J60
We prove in this paper an existence result for infinite-dimensional stationary interactive Brownian diffusions. The interaction is supposed to be small in the norm ||.||∞ but otherwise is very general, being possibly non-regular and non-Markovian. Our method consists in using the characterization of such diffusions as space-time Gibbs fields so that we construct them by space-time cluster expansions in the small coupling parameter.
Executive responsibility for EU policies is by tradition delegated to the member states and their internal administrative bodies. It is therefore of outmost importance that the new Central and East European members have the capacity to administer the acquis communitaire once they are full members of the EU. Based on a survey among current and former top-level decision-makers (ministers), this article argues that although there are significant implementation problems, efficiency gains can be made through administrative reform and not the least education aimed at changing the worldview and knowledge of the individual civil servant. However, there seem to be significant differences in how these countries tackle implementation problems and administrative reform.
Since the late 1960s of the 20th century, Bulgaria experienced a great increase in organized crime. As a result, relations between the managers of state-owned enterprises, the state security service, party officials, and criminal actors grew and became stronger. Parts of the old network are still functioning. Through the support of governmental circles, organized crime became established and dominated essential parts of the economy, from the mid-1990s. Since 1996, however, governments tried to act against organized crime. The influence of the mafia is still an unsolved problem and a challenge to the transformation of the country.
There have been three main phases of political discourse in recent Iranian history. A paternalistic era was accompanied by a phase of absolutistic rule during the Qagar dynasty. This phase was followed by a forced modernization, when the Shah of Iran expanded his absolutistic rule and established a dictatorship. With the Islamic Revolution of 1979, a new phase of political discourse emerged with a tendency towards religious traditionalism. The author states that religion and democracy are not in opposition. However, there is need for dialogue between the East and the West.
Poverty, ethnicity and religious fundamentalism are the most pressing problems of the 21st century. According to this Indian author, democratisation on the national and international level is the only way to overcome these problems. One reason for the failing of the international institutions is the insufficient representation of the world community, especially in the UN Security Council. A reform of the United Nations seems indispensable. The war against international terrorism is essential but has to be waged without the differentiation between good and bad terrorists.
For the first time when the new Islamic councils began their Operation, many intellectuals and politicians proclaimed that there would be no room for the young Islamic councils to proceed. In political terms, because of the new challenges between the rightists and leftists, many people had no hope to see the results of the councils. Still others believed that under the dominating ruling system of Iran there is no space for public opinion and participation in local decision-making. This paper focuses on the role of the Islamic Councils as a new form of social democracy, which decentralizes power and creates good local governance. The paper also discusses the obstacles for the Councils in the development of the region.
Discourses of danger are a significant part of security and identity politics. They serve well for analysing the construction of both, security through identity politics, and identity through security policy. In this article, the declaration of the Vilnius Group of February 2003 is used as a point of departure. The author discusses the construction of state and national identities in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania throughout the 1990s by means of security policy, danger discourse, and mechanisms of exclusion. He argues that the replacement of Russia as a threat to Baltic security (in documents and policy manifestations) is a reflection of a relaxation of Baltic-Russian relations as well as an ingredient of the pre-accession strategy towards NATO. Political-military threats are replaced by cultural ones, while Russia, hitherto frequently represented as a concrete danger, gives way to abstractions such as „international terrorism“.
Beyond the line?
(2004)
In December 2003, the Orient-Occident Forum for Intercultural Exchange at the University of Potsdam and the academic partnership program Potsdam-Teheran held a week-long conference, titled „Comparing Processes of Modernization“, which was attended by many social scientists from Egypt, Iran and Germany. In this issue, some of the contributions of the conference are published and commented. During the course of the conference, an intercultural discourse – „beyond the line“ – concerning the responsibilities and development prospects of modernization theory took place. In their article, the organizers of the meeting try to systematically summarize these discussions and present some further reflections.
Can there be an order of the international system? This article discusses different alternatives of international order starting with the realist assumption of peace by deterrence or balance of power, turning to the idealist view of international cooperation. Finally, the author provides deeper insights into the concept of order established by a hegemonic power including a broad set of historical case studies.
The author offers a survey of recent studies on the role of the European Union in world affairs. While some theoretical and conceptual progress has been made since the 1970s and 1980s, a good deal of the current work is still largely descriptive. Only a small number of studies take factors such as culture, norms, or ideas sufficiently into account. Referring to such variables, however, promises a value added for the explanation of certain phenomena in EU external relations. With reference to IR Theory, an institutionalist approach that conceptualises ideas as an intervening variable is therefore proposed.
From the Russian perspective, the author describes the danger of a hegemonic US, dominating the world’s fate, weakening the UN and endangering peace. A counterweight to the US domination could be stronger ties between Western Europe and Russia. The rise of the Franco-German-Russian troika has been the only positive effect of the Iraq war. But not all members of the EU seem to recognise the necessity of a „Great Europe” from Reykjavik to Wladiwostok. Especially the new members of NATO and EU are vassals of the US and exhibit strong anti-Russian resentments.
Vom Sprechen und Schweigen
(2004)
The drift time spectra of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), alkylbenzenes and alkylphenylethers were recorded with a laser-based ion mobility (IM) spectrometer. The ion mobilities of all compounds were determined in helium as drift gas. This allows the calculation of the diffusion cross sections (Omegacalc) on the basis of the exact hard sphere scattering model (EHSSM) and their comparison with the experimentally determined diffusion cross sections (Omegaexp). These Omegaexp/Omegacalc-correlations are presented for molecules with a rigid structure like PAH and prove the reliability of the theoretical model and experimental method. The increase of the selectivity of IM spectrometry is demonstrated using resonance enhanced multiphoton ionisation (REMPI) at atmospheric pressure, realized by tuneable lasers. The REMPI spectra of nine alkylbenzenes and alkylphenylethers are investigated. On the basis of these spectra, the complete qualitative distinction of eight compounds in a mixture is shown. These experiments are extended to alkylbenzene isomer mixtures.
Inhalt: 1 Entwicklung der Fragestellung 2. Erscheinungsformen betrieblicher Modernisierung – Kompetenzentwicklung als interessiertes Handeln 3. Die Managementperspektive auf Kompetenzentwicklung – ‚Entwickeln’ als steuern und trainieren 4. Die Subjektperspektive auf Kompetenzentwicklung – ‚Entwickeln’ als sich verständigen, sich entfalten - Die lerntheoretische Rahmung der Subjektperspektive - ‚Fallarbeit’ als empirischer und verstehender Zugang zu subjektiven Selbstverständigungsprozessen (1) Fallerzählung und Nachfragen (2) Spuren suchen und Kernthemen finden (3) Kernthemen bearbeiten
Inhalt: 1. Warum Brückendiskurs und Interdisziplinarität? 2.Der konzeptuelle Rahmen des lefo-Projekts 2.1 Fallorientierung und Subjektorientierung 2.2 Warum kann der Selbstverständigungs- und Lernprozess der ForscherInnen an einem Fall gelingen? 3. Der „Lernende Forschungszusammenhang“ am Beispiel des Forschungsprojekts „Bühler“ 4. Ausblick
Inhalt: 1. Fragestellung 2. Neue Perspektiven auf klassische Vermittlungsverhältnisse 2.1 Vermittlung als Inhaltsauswahl und -präsentation 2.2 Kooperative Lernverhältnisse: Neue Perspektiven auf Vermittlung 3. Zur Konzipierung von Vermittlungsverhältnissen als Verste-hens- und Beratungsverhältnisse 3.1 Vermittlung als Verstehens- und Beratungsleistung 3.2 Verstehen im Kontext von Anerkennung und Kritik
Inhalt: 1. Fragestellung 2. Zum Verhältnis von Bildung und Lernen 3. Expansives Lernen: ein geeigneter heuristischer Rahmen für das Verstehen von Lernhandlungen? 3.1 Das Handeln des gesellschaftlichen Subjekts 3.2 Lernen als Gewinnung verallgemeinerter Handlungsfähigkeit 3.3 Expansive und defensive Lerngründe 3.4 Bedeutungs- Begründungs-Analysen im Rahmen von Forschungs- und Bildungsprozessen 4. Bildung und expansives Lernen
Fachvortrag gehalten beim 8. Bayerischen Berufsbildungskongress Aus dem Inhalt: Das Projekt be-online (www.projekt-be-online.de) entwickelt ein beratungsorientiertes Bildungsangebot im Internet für die Erwachsenenbildung und die betrieblich-berufliche Weiterbildung. Im Mittelpunkt stehen virtuelle Bildungsräume mit kooperativen Lernzusammenhängen, die in geschlossenen Online-Foren realisiert werden. Das Projekt wird vom Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung gefördert und in Bildungseinrichtungen der Gewerkschaft ver.di umgesetzt. Didaktische Grundlage ist das Konzept „fallorientierte Weiterbildung“, das von Kurt R. Müller u.a. (Universität der Bundeswehr München) entwickelt und vom Bayerischen Staatsministerium für Arbeit und Sozialordnung, Familie und Frauen gefördert wurde.
Dieser Beitrag geht auf der Grundlage von zwei empirischen Fallstudien der Frage nach, in welcher Weise in aktuellen betrieblichen Modernisierungsprozessen auf Lern- und Bildungsprozesse der Beschäftigten rekurriert wird. Die Fallstudien entstammen einem interdisziplinären Arbeitsforschungsprojekt, das die Folgen betrieblich gesteuerter Prozesse zur Entgrenzung von Arbeit beforscht, wie sie aktuell bei der Umstellung betrieblicher Steuerungsmodelle auf ergebnisgesteuerte Arbeit für die Beschäftigten auftreten.
Ergodicity of PCA
(2004)
For a general attractive Probabilistic Cellular Automata on S-Zd, we prove that the (time-) convergence towards equilibrium of this Markovian parallel dynamics, exponentially fast in the uniform norm, is equivalent to a condition (A). This condition means the exponential decay of the influence from the boundary for the invariant measures of the system restricted to finite boxes. For a class of reversible PCA dynamics on {1,+1}(Zd), wit a naturally associated Gibbsian potential rho, we prove that a (spatial-) weak mixing condition (WM) for rho implies the validity of the assumption (A); thus exponential (time-) ergodicity of these dynamics towards the unique Gibbs measure associated to rho hods. On some particular examples we state that exponential ergodicity holds as soon as there is no phase transition.
A fine-grained slope that exhibits slow movement rates was investigated to understand how geohydrological processes contribute to a consecutive development of mass movements in the Vorarlberg Alps, Austria. For that purpose intensive hydrometeorological, hydrogeological and geotechnical observations as well as surveying of surface movement rates were conducted during 1998–2001. Subsurface water dynamics at the creeping slope turned out to be dominated by a three-dimensional pressure system. The pressure reaction is triggered by fast infiltration of surface water and subsequent lateral water flow in the south-western part of the hillslope. The related pressure signal was shown to propagate further downhill, causing fast reactions of the piezometric head at 5Ð5 m depth on a daily time scale. The observed pressure reactions might belong to a temporary hillslope water body that extends further downhill. The related buoyancy forces could be one of the driving forces for the mass movement. A physically based hydrological model was adopted to model simultaneously surface and subsurface water dynamics including evapotranspiration and runoff production. It was possible to reproduce surface runoff and observed pressure reactions in principle. However, as soil hydraulic functions were only estimated on pedotransfer functions, a quantitative comparison between observed and simulated subsurface dynamics is not feasible. Nevertheless, the results suggest that it is possible to reconstruct important spatial structures based on sparse observations in the field which allow reasonable simulations with a physically based hydrological model. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS rainfall-induced landslides; soil creep; hydrological modelling; Vorarlberg; Austria; pressure propagation
Editorial
(2004)
Variation in nitrogen deposition and available soil nitrogen in a forest–grassland ecotone in Canada
(2004)
Regional variation in nitrogen (N) deposition increases plant productivity and decreases species diversity, but landscape- or local-scale influences on N deposition are less well-known. Using ion-exchange resin, we measured variation of N deposition and soil N availability within Elk Island National Park in the ecotone between grassland and boreal forest in western Canada. The park receives regionally high amounts of atmospheric N deposition (22 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). N deposition was on average higher ton clayrich luvisols than on brunisols, and areas burned 1 – 15 years previously received more atmospheric N than unburned sites. We suggest that the effects of previous fires and soil type on deposition rate act through differences in canopy structure. The magnitude of these effects varied with the presence of ungulate grazers (bison, moose, elk) and vegetation type (forest, shrubland, grassland). Available soil N (ammonium and nitrate) was higher in burned than unburned sites in the absence of grazing, suggesting an effect of deposition. On grazed sites, differences between fire treatments were small, presumably because the removal of biomass by grazers reduced the effect of fire. Aspen invades native grassland in this region, and our results suggest that fire without grazing might reinforce the expansion of forest into grassland facilitated by N deposition.
This article deals with the growing importance of Non-Governmental Organisations in the South as partners for international development cooperation. It focuses on the innovation potential of NGOs in tackling poverty and in promoting social, economic, and political development in cooperation with donor agencies. It is argued that NGOs face critical challenges when opting for increased professionalism and expansion in size. Many NGOs run the risk of loosing their valuable potentials and advantages in the name of professionalism by transforming themselves into government-like bureaucracies or profit oriented enterprises. Drawing from significant experience in developing countries and with donor agencies, the author offers an ambitious theoretical analysis of NGOs in the south which goes beyond typical approaches of looking at the performance of individuals or merely specific types of NGOs.
Editorial
(2004)
Editorial
(2004)