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Sequential data assimilation of the stochastic SEIR epidemic model for regional COVID-19 dynamics
(2021)
Newly emerging pandemics like COVID-19 call for predictive models to implement precisely tuned responses to limit their deep impact on society. Standard epidemic models provide a theoretically well-founded dynamical description of disease incidence. For COVID-19 with infectiousness peaking before and at symptom onset, the SEIR model explains the hidden build-up of exposed individuals which creates challenges for containment strategies. However, spatial heterogeneity raises questions about the adequacy of modeling epidemic outbreaks on the level of a whole country. Here, we show that by applying sequential data assimilation to the stochastic SEIR epidemic model, we can capture the dynamic behavior of outbreaks on a regional level. Regional modeling, with relatively low numbers of infected and demographic noise, accounts for both spatial heterogeneity and stochasticity. Based on adapted models, short-term predictions can be achieved. Thus, with the help of these sequential data assimilation methods, more realistic epidemic models are within reach.
Background
There is consistent evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with an increased psychosocial burden on children and adolescents and their parents. Relatively little is known about its particular impact on high-risk groups with chronic physical health conditions (CCs). Therefore, the primary aim of the study is to analyze the multiple impacts on health care and psychosocial well-being on these children and adolescents and their parents.
Methods
We will implement a two-stage approach. In the first step, parents and their underage children from three German patient registries for diabetes, obesity, and rheumatic diseases, are invited to fill out short questionnaires including questions about corona-specific stressors, the health care situation, and psychosocial well-being. In the next step, a more comprehensive, in-depth online survey is carried out in a smaller subsample.
Discussion
The study will provide insights into the multiple longer-term stressors during the COVID-19 pandemic in families with a child with a CC. The simultaneous consideration of medical and psycho-social endpoints will help to gain a deeper understanding of the complex interactions affecting family functioning, psychological well-being, and health care delivery.