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Institute
German and European migration policy operates in permanent crisis mode. Sudden increases in irregular immigration create a sense of loss of control, which is instrumentalised by populist forces. This has generated great interest in quantitative migration predictions. High expectations are placed in the AI-based tools currently under devel­op­ment for forecasting irregular migration. The potential applications of these tools are manifold. They range from managing and strengthening the EU's reception capacity and border protections to configuring humanitarian aid provision and longer-term planning of development programmes. There is a significant gap between the expectations placed in the new instruments and their practical utility. Technical limits exist, medium-term forecasts are methodologically implausible, and channels for feeding the results into political decision-making processes are lacking. The great demand for predictions is driven by the political functions of migration prediction, which include its uses in political communication, funding acquisition and legitimisation of political decisions. Investment in the quality of the underlying data will be more productive than developing a succession of new prediction tools. Funding for applications in emergency relief and development cooperation should be prioritised. Crisis early warning and risk analysis should also be strengthened and their networking improved.
Die deutsche und europäische Migrationspolitik befindet sich im permanenten Krisenmodus. Plötzliche Anstiege ungeregelter Zuwanderung nähren ein Gefühl von Kontrollverlust, das wiederum von populistischen Kräften instrumentalisiert wird. Daher hat die Politik großes Interesse an quantitativen Migrationsprognosen. Besondere Erwartungen wecken KI-gestützte Instrumente zur Vorhersage ungeregelter Wanderungsbewegungen, wie sie zurzeit entwickelt werden. Die Anwendungsfelder dieser Instrumente sind vielfältig. Sie reichen von einer Stärkung der Aufnahmekapazitäten in der EU über die präventive Verschärfung von Grenzschutzmaßnahmen und eine bedarfsgerechte Bereitstellung von Ressourcen in humanitären Krisen bis zur längerfristigen entwicklungspolitischen Programmplanung. Allerdings besteht eine deutliche Kluft zwischen den Erwartungen an die neuen Instrumente und ihrem praktischen Mehrwert. Zum einen sind die technischen Möglichkeiten begrenzt, und mittelfristige Vorhersagen zu ungeregelten Wanderungen sind methodisch kaum möglich. Zum anderen mangelt es an Verfahren, um die Ergebnisse in politische Entscheidungsprozesse einfließen zu lassen. Die hohe Nachfrage nach Prognosen erklärt sich aus den politischen Funktionen quantitativer Migrationsvorhersage - beispielsweise ihrem Potential für die politische Kommunikation, die Mitteleinwerbung und die Legitimierung politischer Entscheidungen. Investitionen in die Qualität der den Prognosen zugrunde liegenden Daten sind sinnvoller als die Entwicklung immer neuer Instrumente. Bei der Mittelvergabe für Prognosen sollten Anwendungen in der Nothilfe und der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit priorisiert werden. Zudem sollten die Krisenfrüherkennung und die Risikoanalyse gestärkt werden, und die beteiligten Akteure sollten sich besser vernetzen.
In adults, the level of ability to perceive one's own body signals plays an important role for many concepts of emotional experience as demonstrated for emotion processing or emotion regulation. Representative data on perception of body signals and its emotional correlates in children is lacking. Therefore, the present study investigated the cardiac sensitivity of 1,350 children between 6 and 11 years of age in a heartbeat perception task. Our main findings demonstrated the distribution of cardiac sensitivity in children as well as associations with interpersonal emotional intelligence and adaptability. Furthermore, independent of body mass index, boys showed a significantly higher cardiac sensitivity than girls. We conclude that cardiac sensitivity in children appears to show weaker but similar characteristics and relations to emotional parameters as found in adults, so that a dynamic developmental process can be assumed.
Objective: Emotional problems often co-occur in overweight or obese children. However, questions of whether emotion recognition deficits are present and how they are reflected have only been sparsely investigated to date.
Methods: Therefore, the present study included 33 overweight and obese as well as 33 normal weight elementary school children between six and ten years that were matched for sex, age and socioeconomic status. Participants were shown different emotional faces of a well-validated set of stimuli on a computer screen, which they categorized and then rated on an emotional intensity level. Key measures were categorization performance along with reaction times and emotional intelligence as well as emotional eating questionnaire ratings.
Results: Overweight children exhibited lower categorization accuracy as well as longer reaction times as compared to normal weight children, while no differences in intensity ratings occurred. Reaction time to neutral facial expressions was negatively related to intrapersonal and interpersonal emotional intelligence and emotional eating correlated negatively with accuracy for recognizing sad expressions.
Conclusion: Facial emotion decoding difficulties seem to be of importance in overweight and obese children and deserve further consideration in terms of their exact impact on social functioning as well as on the maintenance of elevated body weight during child development. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved.