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Megathrust earthquakes are commonly accompanied by increased upper-plate seismicity and occasionally triggered fault slip. In Chile, crustal faults slipped during and after the 2010 Maule (M8.8) earthquake. We studied the El Yolki fault (EYOF), a transtensional structure midways the Maule rupture not triggered in 2010. We mapped a Holocene coastal plain using light detection and ranging, which did not reveal surface ruptures. However, the inner-edge and shoreline angles along the coastal plain as well as 4.3- to 4.0-ka intertidal sediments are back-tilted on the EYOF footwall block, documenting 10 m of vertical displacement. These deformed markers imply similar to 2-mm/year throw rate, and dislocation models a slip rate of 5.6 mm/year for the EYOF. In a 5-m-deep trench, the Holocene intertidal sediments onlap to five erosive steps, interpreted as staircase wave-cut landforms formed by discrete events of relative sea level drop. We tentatively associated these steps with coseismic uplift during EYOF earthquakes between 4.3 and 4.0 ka. The Maule earthquake rupture may be subdivided into three subsegments based on coseismic slip and gravity anomalies. Coulomb stress transfer models predict neutral stress changes at the EYOF during the Maule earthquake but positive changes for a synthetic slip distribution at the central subsegment. If EYOF earthquakes were triggered by megathrust events, their slip distribution was probably focused in the central subsegment. Our study highlights the millennial variability of crustal faulting and the megathrust earthquake cycle in Chile, with global implications for assessing the hazards posed by hidden but potentially seismogenic coastal faults along subduction zones.
Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.