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Seismology, like many scientific fields, e.g., music information retrieval and speech signal pro- cessing, is experiencing exponential growth in the amount of data acquired by modern seismo- logical networks. In this thesis, I take advantage of the opportunities offered by "big data" and by the methods developed in the areas of music information retrieval and machine learning to predict better the ground motion generated by earthquakes and to study the properties of the surface layers of the Earth. In order to better predict seismic ground motions, I propose two approaches based on unsupervised deep learning methods, an autoencoder network and Generative Adversarial Networks. The autoencoder technique explores a massive amount of ground motion data, evaluates the required parameters, and generates synthetic ground motion data in the Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) domain. This method is tested on two synthetic datasets and one real dataset. The application on the real dataset shows that the substantial information contained within the FAS data can be encoded to a four to the five-dimensional manifold. Consequently, only a few independent parameters are required for efficient ground motion prediction. I also propose a method based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGAN) for simulating ground motion records in the time-frequency and time domains. CGAN generates the time-frequency domains based on the parameters: magnitude, distance, and shear wave velocities to 30 m depth (VS30). After generating the amplitude of the time-frequency domains using the CGAN model, instead of classical conventional methods that assume the amplitude spectra with a random phase spectrum, the phase of the time-frequency domains is recovered by minimizing the observed and reconstructed spectrograms. In the second part of this dissertation, I propose two methods for the monitoring and characterization of near-surface materials and site effect analyses. I implement an autocorrelation function and an interferometry method to monitor the velocity changes of near-surface materials resulting from the Kumamoto earthquake sequence (Japan, 2016). The observed seismic velocity changes during the strong shaking are due to the non-linear response of the near-surface materials. The results show that the velocity changes lasted for about two months after the Kumamoto mainshock. Furthermore, I used the velocity changes to evaluate the in-situ strain-stress relationship. I also propose a method for assessing the site proxy "VS30" using non-invasive analysis. In the proposed method, a dispersion curve of surface waves is inverted to estimate the shear wave velocity of the subsurface. This method is based on the Dix-like linear operators, which relate the shear wave velocity to the phase velocity. The proposed method is fast, efficient, and stable. All of the methods presented in this work can be used for processing "big data" in seismology and for the analysis of weak and strong ground motion data, to predict ground shaking, and to analyze site responses by considering potential time dependencies and nonlinearities.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely the most well-known system of ocean currents on Earth, redistributing heat, nutrients and carbon over a large part of the Earth’s surface and affecting global climate as a result. Due to enhanced freshwater fluxes into the subpolar North Atlantic as a response to global warming, the AMOC is expected, and may have already started, to weaken and these changes will likely have global impacts. It is therefore of considerable relevance to improve our understanding of past and future AMOC changes. My thesis tries to answer some of the open questions in this field by giving strong evidence that the AMOC has already weakened over the last century, by narrowing future projections of this slowdown and
by studying the impacts on global surface warming.
While there have been various studies trying to reconstruct the strength of the overturning circulation in the past, often based on model simulations in combination with observations (Jackson et al., 2016, Kanzow et al., 2010) or proxies (Frajka-Williams, 2015, Latif et al., 2006), the results so far, due to lack of direct measurements, have been inconclusive. In the first paper I build on previous work that links the anomalously low sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic with the reduced meridional heat transport due to a weaker AMOC. Using the output of a high-resolution global climate model, I derive a characteristic spatial and seasonal SST fingerprint of an AMOC slowdown and an improved SST-based AMOC index. The same fingerprint is seen in
the observational SSTs since the late 19th Century, giving strong evidence that since then the AMOC has slowed down. In addition, the reconstruction of the historical overturning strength with the new AMOC index agrees well with and extends the results of earlier studies as well as the direct measurements from the RAPID project and shows a strong decline of the AMOC by about 15% (3±1 Sv) since the mid-20th Century (Caesar et al., 2018).
The reconstruction of the historical overturning strength with the AMOC index enables us to weight future AMOC projections based on their skill in modeling the historical AMOC as described in the second paper of this thesis (Olson et al., 2018). Using Bayesian model averaging we considerably narrow the projections of the CMIP5 ensemble to a decrease of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv between the years 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. These values fit to, yet are at the lower end of, previously published estimates.
In the third paper I examine how the AMOC slowdown affects the global mean surface temperature (GMST) with a focus on how it will change the ocean heat uptake (OHC). Accounting for the effect of changes in the radiative forcing on the GMST, I test how AMOC variations correlate with the residual part of surface temperature changes in the past. I find that the correlation is positive which fits the understanding that the deep-water formation that is important in driving the AMOC cools the deep ocean and therefore warms the surface (Caesar et al., 2019). The future weakening of the overturning circulation could therefore delay global surface warming.
Due to nonlinear behavior and scale specific changes it can be difficult to study the dominant processes and modes that drive climate variability. In the fourth paper we develop and test a new technique based on the wavelet multiscale correlation (WMC) similarity measure to study climate variability on different temporal and spatial scales (Agarwal et al., 2018). In a fifth contribution to my thesis this method is applied to the observed sea surface temperatures. The results reconfirm well-known relations between SST anomalies such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on inter-annual and decadal timescales, respectively. They
furthermore give new insights into the characteristics and origins of long-range teleconnections, for example, that the teleconnection between ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole exist mainly between the northern part of the ENSO tongue and the equatorial Indian Ocean, and provides therefore valuable knowledge about the regions that are necessary to include when modeling regional climate variability at a certain scale (Agarwal et al., 2019).
In summary, my PhD thesis investigates past and future AMOC variability and its effects on global mean surface temperature by utilizing a combination of observational sea surface data and the output of historical and future climate model simulations from both the high-resolution CM2.6 model as well as the CMIP5 ensemble. It further includes the development and validation of a new method to study climate variability, that, applied to the observed sea surface temperatures, gives new insight about teleconnections in the Earth System. My findings provide evidence that the AMOC has already slowed down, will continue to do so in the future, and will impact the global mean temperature. Further impacts of an AMOC slowdown may include increased sea-level rise at the U.S. east coast (Ezer, 2015), heat extremes in Europe (Duchez et al., 2016) and increased storm activity in the North Atlantic region (Jackson et al., 2015), all of which have significant socio-economic implications.
During lower sea levels in glacial periods, deep permafrost formed on large continental shelf areas of the Arctic Ocean. Subsequent sea level rise and coastal erosion created subsea permafrost, which generally degrades after inundation under the influence of a complex suite of marine, near-shore processes. Global warming is especially pronounced in the Arctic, and will increase the transition to and the degradation of subsea permafrost, with implications for atmospheric climate forcing, offshore infrastructure, and aquatic ecosystems.
This thesis combines new geophysical, borehole observational and modelling approaches to enhance our understanding of subsea permafrost dynamics. Three specific areas for advancement were identified: (I) sparsity of observational data, (II) lacking implementation of salt infiltration mechanisms in models, and (III) poor understanding of the regional differences in key driving parameters. This study tested the combination of spectral ratios of the ambient vibration seismic wavefield, together with estimated shear wave velocity from seismic interferometry analysis, for estimating the thickness of the unfrozen sediment overlying the ice-bonded permafrost offshore. Mesoscale numerical calculations (10^1 to 10^2 m, thousands of years) were employed to develop and solve the coupled heat diffusion and salt transport equations including phase change effects. Model soil parameters were constrained by borehole data, and the impact of a variety of influences during the transgression was tested in modelling studies. In addition, two inversion schemes (particle swarm optimization and a least-square method) were used to reconstruct temperature histories for the past 200-300 years in the Laptev Sea region in Siberia from two permafrost borehole temperature records. These data were evaluated against larger scale reconstructions from the region.
It was found (I) that peaks in spectral ratios modelled for three-layer, one-dimensional systems corresponded with thaw depths. Around Muostakh Island in the central Laptev Sea seismic receivers were deployed on the seabed. Derived depths of the ice-bonded permafrost table were between 3.7-20.7 m ± 15 %, increasing with distance from the coast. (II) Temperatures modelled during the transition to subsea permafrost resembled isothermal conditions after about 2000 years of inundation at Cape Mamontov Klyk, consistent with observations from offshore boreholes. Stratigraphic scenarios showed that salt distribution and infiltration had a large impact on the ice saturation in the sediments. Three key factors were identified that, when changed, shifted the modelled permafrost thaw depth most strongly: bottom water temperatures, shoreline retreat rate and initial temperature before inundation. Salt transport based on diffusion and contribution from arbitrary density-driven mechanisms only accounted for about 50 % of observed thaw depths at offshore sites hundreds to thousands of years after inundation. This bias was found consistently at all three sites in the Laptev Sea region. (III) In the temperature reconstructions, distinct differences in the local temperature histories between the western Laptev Sea and the Lena Delta sites were recognized, such as a transition to warmer temperatures a century later in the western Laptev Sea as well as a peak in warming three decades later. The local permafrost surface temperature history at Sardakh Island in the Lena Delta was reminiscent of the circum-Arctic regional average trends. However, Mamontov Klyk in the western Laptev Sea was consistent to Arctic trends only in the most recent decade and was more similar to northern hemispheric mean trends. Both sites were consistent with a rapid synoptic recent warming.
In conclusion, the consistency between modelled response, expected permafrost distribution, and observational data suggests that the passive seismic method is promising for the determination of the thickness of unfrozen sediment on the continental Arctic shelf. The quantified gap between currently modelled and observed thaw depths means that the impact of degradation on climate forcing, ecosystems, and infrastructure is larger than current models predict. This discrepancy suggests the importance of further mechanisms of salt penetration and thaw that have not been considered – either pre-inundation or post-inundation, or both. In addition, any meaningful modelling of subsea permafrost would have to constrain the identified key factors and their regional differences well. The shallow permafrost boreholes provide missing well-resolved short-scale temperature information in the coastal permafrost tundra of the Arctic. As local differences from circum-Arctic reconstructions, such as later warming and higher warming magnitude, were shown to exist in this region, these results provide a basis for local surface temperature record parameterization of climate and, in particular, permafrost models. The results of this work bring us one step further to understanding the full picture of the transition from terrestrial to subsea permafrost.
The Lombok Island is part of the Lesser Sunda Islands (LSI) region – Indonesia, situated along the Sunda-Banda Arcs transition. It lies between zones characterized by the highest intensity geomagnetic anomalies of this region, remarkable as one of the eight most important features provided on the 1st edition of World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map. The seismicity of this region during the last years is high, while the geological and tectonic structures of this region are still not known in detail. Some local magnetic surveys have been conducted previously during 2004–2005. However, due to the lower accuracy of the used equipment and a limited number of stations, the qualities of the previous measurements are questionable for more interpretations. Thus a more detailed study to better characterize the geomagnetic anomaly -spatially and temporally- over this region and to deeply explore the related regional geology, tectonic and seismicity is needed. The intriguing geomagnetic anomalies over this island region vis-à-vis the socio-cultural situations lead to a study with a special aim to contribute to the assessment of the potential of natural hazards (earthquakes) as well as a new natural resource of energy (geothermal potential).
This study is intended to discuss several crucial questions, including:
i. The real values and the general pattern of magnetic anomalies over the island, as well as their relation to the regional one.
ii. Any temporal changes of regional anomalies over the recent time.
iii. The relationships between the anomalies and the geology and tectonic of this region, especially new insights that can be gained from the geomagnetic observations.
iv. The relationships between the anomalies and the high seismicity of this region, especially some possible links between their variations to the earthquake occurrence.
First, all available geomagnetic data of this region and results of the previous measurements are evaluated. The new geomagnetic surveys carried out in 2006 and 2007/2008 are then presented in detail, followed by the general description of data processing and data quality evaluation. The new results show the general pattern of contiguous negative-positive anomalies, revealing an active arc related subduction region. They agree with earlier results obtained by satellite, aeromagnetic, and marine platforms; and provide a much more detailed picture of the strong anomalies on this island. The temporal characteristics of regional anomalies show a decreasing strength of the dipolar structure, where decreasing of the field intensities is faster than the regional secular variations as defined by the global model (the 10th generation of IGRF). However, some exceptions (increasing of anomalies) have to be noted and further analyzed for several locations.
Thereafter, simultaneous magnetic anomalies and gravity models are generated and interpreted in detail. Three profiles are investigated, providing new insights into the tectonics and geological evolution of the Lombok Island. Geological structure of this island can be divided as two main parts with different consecutive ages: an old part (from late Oligocene to late Miocene) in the South and a younger one (from Pliocene to Holocene) in the North. A new subduction in the back arc region (the Flores Thrust zone) is considered mature and active, showing a tendency of progressive subduction during 2005–2008. Geothermal potential in the northern part of this island can be mapped in more detail using these geomagnetic regional survey data. The earlier estimates of reservoir depth can be confirmed further to a depth of about 800 m. Evaluation of temporal changes of the anomalies gives some possible explanations related to the evolution of the back arc region, large stress accumulations over the LSI region, a specific electrical characteristic of the crust of the Lombok Island region, and a structural discontinuity over this island.
Based on the results, several possible advanced studies involving geomagnetic data and anomaly investigations over the Lombok Island region can be suggested for the future:
i. Monitoring the subduction activity of the back arc region (the Flores Thrust zone) and the accumulated stress over the LSI, that could contribute to middle term hazard assessment with a special attention to the earthquake occurrence in this region. Continuous geomagnetic field measurements from a geomagnetic observatory which can be established in the northern part of the Lombok Island and systematic measurements at several repeat stations can be useful in this regards.
ii. Investigating the specific electrical characteristic (high conductivity) of the crust, that is probably related to some aquifer layers or metal mineralization. It needs other complementary geophysical methods, such as magnetotelluric (MT) or preferably DC resistivity measurements.
iii. Determining the existence of an active structural fault over the Lombok Island, that could be related to long term hazard assessment over the LSI region. This needs an extension of geomagnetic investigations over the neighbouring islands (the Bali Island in the West and the Sumbawa Island in the East; probably also the Sumba and the Flores islands). This seems possible because the regional magnetic lineations might be used to delineate some structural discontinuities, based on the modelling of contrasts in crustal magnetizations.
Selenite pseudomorphs
(2019)