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Assessment of climate change impact on discharge of the lakhmass catchment (Northwest Tunisia)
(2022)
The Mediterranean region is increasingly recognized as a climate change hotspot but is highly underrepresented in hydrological climate change studies. This study aims to investigate the climate change effects on the hydrology of Lakhmass catchment in Tunisia. Lakhmass catchment is a part of the Medium Valley of Medjerda in northwestern Tunisia that drains an area of 126 km(2). First, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning light (HBV-light) model was calibrated and validated successfully at a daily time step to simulate discharge during the 1981-1986 period. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency and Percent bias (NSE, PBIAS) were (0.80, +2.0%) and (0.53, -9.5%) for calibration (September 1982-August 1984) and validation (September 1984-August 1986) periods, respectively. Second, HBV-light model was considered as a predictive tool to simulate discharge in a baseline period (1981-2009) and future projections using data (precipitation and temperature) from thirteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climatic Models (RCMs). We used two trajectories of Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Each RCP is divided into three projection periods: near-term (2010-2039), mid-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099). For both scenarios, a decrease in precipitation and discharge will be expected with an increase in air temperature and a reduction in precipitation with almost 5% for every +1 degrees C of global warming. By long-term (2070-2099) projection period, results suggested an increase in temperature with about 2.7 degrees C and 4 degrees C, and a decrease in precipitation of approximately 7.5% and 15% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This will likely result in a reduction of discharge of 12.5% and 36.6% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This situation calls for early climate change adaptation measures under a participatory approach, including multiple stakeholders and water users.
Increasingly available high-frequency data during storm events, when hydrological dynamics most likely activate nitrate storage-flux exchanges, reveal insights into catchment nitrate dynamics. In this study, we explored impacts of seasonality and landscape gradients on nitrate concentration-discharge (C-Q) hysteresis patterns in the Selke catchment, central Germany, which has heterogeneous combinations of meteorological, hydrogeological and land use conditions. Three nested gauging stations established along the main Selke River captured flow and nitrate export dynamics from the uppermost subcatchment (mixed forest and arable land), middle subcatchment (pure steep forest) and lowermost subcatchment (arable and urban land). We collected continuous high-frequency (15-min) discharge and nitrate concentration data from 2012 to 2017 and analyzed the 223 events detected at all three stations. A dominant hysteresis pattern in the uppermost and middle subcatchments was counter-clockwise and combined with an accretion effect, indicating many proximal and mobilized distal nitrate sources. However, 66% of all events at the catchment outlet experienced a dilution effect, possibly due to mechanisms that vary seasonally. During wetting/wet periods (October-March), it was combined mainly with a counter-clockwise pattern due to the dominance of event runoff volume from the uppermost and middle subcatchments. During drying/dry periods (April-September), however, it was combined mainly with a clockwise pattern due to occasional quick surface flows from lowland near-stream urban areas. In addition, the clockwise hysteresis occurred mainly from May-October during mostly drying/dry periods at all three sites, indicating little distal nitrate transport in response to the low terrestrial hydrological connectivity, especially in the lowermost dry and flat sub-catchment. This comprehensive analysis (i.e., clockwise vs. counter-clockwise, accretion vs. dilution) enables in-depth analysis of nitrate export mechanisms during certain periods under different landscape conditions. Specific combination of C-Q relationships could identify target locations for agricultural management actions that decrease nitrate output. Therefore, we strongly encourage long-term multisite and high-frequency monitoring strategies in heterogeneous nested catchment(s), which can help understand process mechanisms, generate data for physical-based water-quality modeling and provide guidance for water and agricultural management.