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The Central Andean region is characterized by diverse climate zones with sharp transitions between them. In this work, the area of interest is the South-Central Andes in northwestern Argentina that borders with Bolivia and Chile. The focus is the observation of soil moisture and water vapour with Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) remote-sensing methodologies. Because of the rapid temporal and spatial variations of water vapour and moisture circulations, monitoring this part of the hydrological cycle is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that control the local climate. Moreover, GNSS-based techniques have previously shown high potential and are appropriate for further investigation. This study includes both logistic-organization effort and data analysis. As for the prior, three GNSS ground stations were installed in remote locations in northwestern Argentina to acquire observations, where there was no availability of third-party data.
The methodological development for the observation of the climate variables of soil moisture and water vapour is independent and relies on different approaches. The soil-moisture estimation with GNSS reflectometry is an approximation that has demonstrated promising results, but it has yet to be operationally employed. Thus, a more advanced algorithm that exploits more observations from multiple satellite constellations was developed using data from two pilot stations in Germany. Additionally, this algorithm was slightly modified and used in a sea-level measurement campaign. Although the objective of this application is not related to monitoring hydrological parameters, its methodology is based on the same principles and helps to evaluate the core algorithm. On the other hand, water-vapour monitoring with GNSS observations is a well-established technique that is utilized operationally. Hence, the scope of this study is conducting a meteorological analysis by examining the along-the-zenith air-moisture levels and introducing indices related to the azimuthal gradient.
The results of the experiments indicate higher-quality soil moisture observations with the new algorithm. Furthermore, the analysis using the stations in northwestern Argentina illustrates the limits of this technology because of varying soil conditions and shows future research directions. The water-vapour analysis points out the strong influence of the topography on atmospheric moisture circulation and rainfall generation. Moreover, the GNSS time series allows for the identification of seasonal signatures, and the azimuthal-gradient indices permit the detection of main circulation pathways.
With Arctic ground as a huge and temperature-sensitive carbon reservoir, maintaining low ground temperatures and frozen conditions to prevent further carbon emissions that contrib-ute to global climate warming is a key element in humankind’s fight to maintain habitable con-ditions on earth. Former studies showed that during the late Pleistocene, Arctic ground condi-tions were generally colder and more stable as the result of an ecosystem dominated by large herbivorous mammals and vast extents of graminoid vegetation – the mammoth steppe. Characterised by high plant productivity (grassland) and low ground insulation due to animal-caused compression and removal of snow, this ecosystem enabled deep permafrost aggrad-ation. Now, with tundra and shrub vegetation common in the terrestrial Arctic, these effects are not in place anymore. However, it appears to be possible to recreate this ecosystem local-ly by artificially increasing animal numbers, and hence keep Arctic ground cold to reduce or-ganic matter decomposition and carbon release into the atmosphere.
By measuring thaw depth, total organic carbon and total nitrogen content, stable carbon iso-tope ratio, radiocarbon age, n-alkane and alcohol characteristics and assessing dominant vegetation types along grazing intensity transects in two contrasting Arctic areas, it was found that recreating conditions locally, similar to the mammoth steppe, seems to be possible. For permafrost-affected soil, it was shown that intensive grazing in direct comparison to non-grazed areas reduces active layer depth and leads to higher TOC contents in the active layer soil. For soil only frozen on top in winter, an increase of TOC with grazing intensity could not be found, most likely because of confounding factors such as vertical water and carbon movement, which is not possible with an impermeable layer in permafrost. In both areas, high animal activity led to a vegetation transformation towards species-poor graminoid-dominated landscapes with less shrubs. Lipid biomarker analysis revealed that, even though the available organic material is different between the study areas, in both permafrost-affected and sea-sonally frozen soils the organic material in sites affected by high animal activity was less de-composed than under less intensive grazing pressure. In conclusion, high animal activity af-fects decomposition processes in Arctic soils and the ground thermal regime, visible from reduced active layer depth in permafrost areas. Therefore, grazing management might be utilised to locally stabilise permafrost and reduce Arctic carbon emissions in the future, but is likely not scalable to the entire permafrost region.
Volcanic hydrothermal systems are an integral part of most volcanoes and typically involve a heat source, adequate fluid supply, and fracture or pore systems through which the fluids can circulate within the volcanic edifice. Associated with this are subtle but powerful processes that can significantly influence the evolution of volcanic activity or the stability of the near-surface volcanic system through mechanical weakening, permeability reduction, and sealing of the affected volcanic rock. These processes are well constrained for rock samples by laboratory analyses but are still difficult to extrapolate and evaluate at the scale of an entire volcano. Advances in unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), sensor technology, and photogrammetric processing routines now allow us to image volcanic surfaces at the centimeter scale and thus study volcanic hydrothermal systems in great detail. This thesis aims to explore the potential of UAS approaches for studying the structures, processes, and dynamics of volcanic hydrothermal systems but also to develop methodological approaches to uncover secondary information hidden in the data, capable of indicating spatiotemporal dynamics or potentially critical developments associated with hydrothermal alteration. To accomplish this, the thesis describes the investigation of two near-surface volcanic hydrothermal systems, the El Tatio geyser field in Chile and the fumarole field of La Fossa di Vulcano (Italy), both of which are among the best-studied sites of their kind. Through image analysis, statistical, and spatial analyses we have been able to provide the most detailed structural images of both study sites to date, with new insights into the driving forces of such systems but also revealing new potential controls, which are summarized in conceptual site-specific models. Furthermore, the thesis explores methodological remote sensing approaches to detect, classify and constrain hydrothermal alteration and surface degassing from UAS-derived data, evaluated them by mineralogical and chemical ground-truthing, and compares the alteration pattern with the present-day degassing activity. A significant contribution of the often neglected diffuse degassing activity to the total amount of degassing is revealed and constrains secondary processes and dynamics associated with hydrothermal alteration that lead to potentially critical developments like surface sealing. The results and methods used provide new approaches for alteration research, for the monitoring of degassing and alteration effects, and for thermal monitoring of fumarole fields, with the potential to be incorporated into volcano monitoring routines.
Rapidly growing seismic and macroseismic databases and simplified access to advanced machine learning methods have in recent years opened up vast opportunities to address challenges in engineering and strong motion seismology from novel, datacentric perspectives. In this thesis, I explore the opportunities of such perspectives for the tasks of ground motion modeling and rapid earthquake impact assessment, tasks with major implications for long-term earthquake disaster mitigation.
In my first study, I utilize the rich strong motion database from the Kanto basin, Japan, and apply the U-Net artificial neural network architecture to develop a deep learning based ground motion model. The operational prototype provides statistical estimates of expected ground shaking, given descriptions of a specific earthquake source, wave propagation paths, and geophysical site conditions. The U-Net interprets ground motion data in its spatial context, potentially taking into account, for example, the geological properties in the vicinity of observation sites. Predictions of ground motion intensity are thereby calibrated to individual observation sites and earthquake locations.
The second study addresses the explicit incorporation of rupture forward directivity into ground motion modeling. Incorporation of this phenomenon, causing strong, pulse like ground shaking in the vicinity of earthquake sources, is usually associated with an intolerable increase in computational demand during probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) calculations. I suggest an approach in which I utilize an artificial neural network to efficiently approximate the average, directivity-related adjustment to ground motion predictions for earthquake ruptures from the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The practical implementation in an actual PSHA calculation demonstrates the efficiency and operational readiness of my model. In a follow-up study, I present a proof of concept for an alternative strategy in which I target the generalizing applicability to ruptures other than those from the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model.
In the third study, I address the usability of pseudo-intensity reports obtained from macroseismic observations by non-expert citizens for rapid impact assessment. I demonstrate that the statistical properties of pseudo-intensity collections describing the intensity of shaking are correlated with the societal impact of earthquakes. In a second step, I develop a probabilistic model that, within minutes of an event, quantifies the probability of an earthquake to cause considerable societal impact. Under certain conditions, such a quick and preliminary method might be useful to support decision makers in their efforts to organize auxiliary measures for earthquake disaster response while results from more elaborate impact assessment frameworks are not yet available.
The application of machine learning methods to datasets that only partially reveal characteristics of Big Data, qualify the majority of results obtained in this thesis as explorative insights rather than ready-to-use solutions to real world problems. The practical usefulness of this work will be better assessed in the future by applying the approaches developed to growing and increasingly complex data sets.
A comprehensive study on seismic hazard and earthquake triggering is crucial for effective mitigation of earthquake risks. The destructive nature of earthquakes motivates researchers to work on forecasting despite the apparent randomness of the earthquake occurrences. Understanding their underlying mechanisms and patterns is vital, given their potential for widespread devastation and loss of life. This thesis combines methodologies, including Coulomb stress calculations and aftershock analysis, to shed light on earthquake complexities, ultimately enhancing seismic hazard assessment.
The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) criterion is widely used to predict the spatial distributions of aftershocks following large earthquakes. However, uncertainties associated with CFS calculations arise from non-unique slip inversions and unknown fault networks, particularly due to the choice of the assumed aftershocks (receiver) mechanisms. Recent studies have proposed alternative stress quantities and deep neural network approaches as superior to CFS with predefined receiver mechanisms. To challenge these propositions, I utilized 289 slip inversions from the SRCMOD database to calculate more realistic CFS values for a layered-half space and variable receiver mechanisms. The analysis also investigates the impact of magnitude cutoff, grid size variation, and aftershock duration on the ranking of stress metrics using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results reveal the performance of stress metrics significantly improves after accounting for receiver variability and for larger aftershocks and shorter time periods, without altering the relative ranking of the different stress metrics.
To corroborate Coulomb stress calculations with the findings of earthquake source studies in more detail, I studied the source properties of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and its aftershocks, aiming to unravel the seismotectonics of the NW Himalayan syntaxis. I simultaneously relocated the mainshock and its largest aftershocks using phase data, followed by a comprehensive analysis of Coulomb stress changes on the aftershock planes. By computing the Coulomb failure stress changes on the aftershock faults, I found that all large aftershocks lie in regions of positive stress change, indicating triggering by either co-seismic or post-seismic slip on the mainshock fault.
Finally, I investigated the relationship between mainshock-induced stress changes and associated seismicity parameters, in particular those of the frequency-magnitude (Gutenberg-Richter) distribution and the temporal aftershock decay (Omori-Utsu law). For that purpose, I used my global data set of 127 mainshock-aftershock sequences with the calculated Coulomb Stress (ΔCFS) and the alternative receiver-independent stress metrics in the vicinity of the mainshocks and analyzed the aftershocks properties depend on the stress values. Surprisingly, the results show a clear positive correlation between the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and induced stress, contrary to expectations from laboratory experiments. This observation highlights the significance of structural heterogeneity and strength variations in seismicity patterns. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that aftershock productivity increases nonlinearly with stress, while the Omori-Utsu parameters c and p systematically decrease with increasing stress changes. These partly unexpected findings have significant implications for future estimations of aftershock hazard.
The findings in this thesis provides valuable insights into earthquake triggering mechanisms by examining the relationship between stress changes and aftershock occurrence. The results contribute to improved understanding of earthquake behavior and can aid in the development of more accurate probabilistic-seismic hazard forecasts and risk reduction strategies.
Today, near-surface investigations are frequently conducted using non-destructive or minimally invasive methods of applied geophysics, particularly in the fields of civil engineering, archaeology, geology, and hydrology. One field that plays an increasingly central role in research and engineering is the examination of sedimentary environments, for example, for characterizing near-surface groundwater systems. A commonly employed method in this context is ground-penetrating radar (GPR). In this technique, short electromagnetic pulses are emitted into the subsurface by an antenna, which are then reflected, refracted, or scattered at contrasts in electromagnetic properties (such as the water table). A receiving antenna records these signals in terms of their amplitudes and travel times. Analysis of the recorded signals allows for inferences about the subsurface, such as the depth of the groundwater table or the composition and characteristics of near-surface sediment layers. Due to the high resolution of the GPR method and continuous technological advancements, GPR data acquisition is increasingly performed in three-dimensional (3D) fashion today.
Despite the considerable temporal and technical efforts involved in data acquisition and processing, the resulting 3D data sets (providing high-resolution images of the subsurface) are typically interpreted manually. This is generally an extremely time-consuming analysis step. Therefore, representative 2D sections highlighting distinctive reflection structures are often selected from the 3D data set. Regions showing similar structures are then grouped into so-called radar facies. The results obtained from 2D sections are considered representative of the entire investigated area. Interpretations conducted in this manner are often incomplete and highly dependent on the expertise of the interpreters, making them generally non-reproducible.
A promising alternative or complement to manual interpretation is the use of GPR attributes. Instead of using the recorded data directly, derived quantities characterizing distinctive reflection structures in 3D are applied for interpretation. Using various field and synthetic data sets, this thesis investigates which attributes are particularly suitable for this purpose. Additionally, the study demonstrates how selected attributes can be utilized through specific processing and classification methods to create 3D facies models. The ability to generate attribute-based 3D GPR facies models allows for partially automated and more efficient interpretations in the future. Furthermore, the results obtained in this manner describe the subsurface in a reproducible and more comprehensive manner than what has typically been achievable through manual interpretation methods.
Ecosystems play a pivotal role in addressing climate change but are also highly susceptible to drastic environmental changes. Investigating their historical dynamics can enhance our understanding of how they might respond to unprecedented future environmental shifts. With Arctic lakes currently under substantial pressure from climate change, lessons from the past can guide our understanding of potential disruptions to these lakes. However, individual lake systems are multifaceted and complex. Traditional isolated lake studies often fail to provide a global perspective because localized nuances—like individual lake parameters, catchment areas, and lake histories—can overshadow broader conclusions. In light of these complexities, a more nuanced approach is essential to analyze lake systems in a global context.
A key to addressing this challenge lies in the data-driven analysis of sedimentological records from various northern lake systems. This dissertation emphasizes lake systems in the northern Eurasian region, particularly in Russia (n=59). For this doctoral thesis, we collected sedimentological data from various sources, which required a standardized framework for further analysis. Therefore, we designed a conceptual model for integrating and standardizing heterogeneous multi-proxy data into a relational database management system (PostgreSQL). Creating a database from the collected data enabled comparative numerical analyses between spatially separated lakes as well as between different proxies.
When analyzing numerous lakes, establishing a common frame of reference was crucial. We achieved this by converting proxy values from depth dependency to age dependency. This required consistent age calculations across all lakes and proxies using one age-depth modeling software. Recognizing the broader implications and potential pitfalls of this, we developed the LANDO approach ("Linked Age and Depth Modelling"). LANDO is an innovative integration of multiple age-depth modeling software into a singular, cohesive platform (Jupyter Notebook). Beyond its ability to aggregate data from five renowned age-depth modeling software, LANDO uniquely empowers users to filter out implausible model outcomes using robust geoscientific data. Our method is not only novel but also significantly enhances the accuracy and reliability of lake analyses.
Considering the preceding steps, this doctoral thesis further examines the relationship between carbon in sediments and temperature over the last 21,000 years. Initially, we hypothesized a positive correlation between carbon accumulation in lakes and modelled paleotemperature. Our homogenized dataset from heterogeneous lakes confirmed this association, even if the highest temperatures throughout our observation period do not correlate with the highest carbon values. We assume that rapid warming events contribute more to high accumulation, while sustained warming leads to carbon outgassing. Considering the current high concentration of carbon in the atmosphere and rising temperatures, ongoing climate change could cause northern lake systems to contribute to a further increase in atmospheric carbon (positive feedback loop). While our findings underscore the reliability of both our standardized data and the LANDO method, expanding our dataset might offer even greater assurance in our conclusions.
Large parts of the Earth’s interior are inaccessible to direct observation, yet global geodynamic processes are governed by the physical material properties under extreme pressure and temperature conditions. It is therefore essential to investigate the deep Earth’s physical properties through in-situ laboratory experiments. With this goal in mind, the optical properties of mantle minerals at high pressure offer a unique way to determine a variety of physical properties, in a straight-forward, reproducible, and time-effective manner, thus providing valuable insights into the physical processes of the deep Earth. This thesis focusses on the system Mg-Fe-O, specifically on the optical properties of periclase (MgO) and its iron-bearing variant ferropericlase ((Mg,Fe)O), forming a major planetary building block. The primary objective is to establish links between physical material properties and optical properties. In particular the spin transition in ferropericlase, the second-most abundant phase of the lower mantle, is known to change the physical material properties. Although the spin transition region likely extends down to the core-mantle boundary, the ef-fects of the mixed-spin state, where both high- and low-spin state are present, remains poorly constrained.
In the studies presented herein, we show how optical properties are linked to physical properties such as electrical conductivity, radiative thermal conductivity and viscosity. We also show how the optical properties reveal changes in the chemical bonding. Furthermore, we unveil how the chemical bonding, the optical and other physical properties are affected by the iron spin transition. We find opposing trends in the pres-sure dependence of the refractive index of MgO and (Mg,Fe)O. From 1 atm to ~140 GPa, the refractive index of MgO decreases by ~2.4% from 1.737 to 1.696 (±0.017). In contrast, the refractive index of (Mg0.87Fe0.13)O (Fp13) and (Mg0.76Fe0.24)O (Fp24) ferropericlase increases with pressure, likely because Fe Fe interactions between adjacent iron sites hinder a strong decrease of polarizability, as it is observed with increasing density in the case of pure MgO. An analysis of the index dispersion in MgO (decreasing by ~23% from 1 atm to ~103 GPa) reflects a widening of the band gap from ~7.4 eV at 1 atm to ~8.5 (±0.6) eV at ~103 GPa. The index dispersion (between 550 and 870 nm) of Fp13 reveals a decrease by a factor of ~3 over the spin transition range (~44–100 GPa). We show that the electrical band gap of ferropericlase significantly widens up to ~4.7 eV in the mixed spin region, equivalent to an increase by a factor of ~1.7. We propose that this is due to a lower electron mobility between adjacent Fe2+ sites of opposite spin, explaining the previously observed low electrical conductivity in the mixed spin region. From the study of absorbance spectra in Fp13, we show an increasing covalency of the Fe-O bond with pressure for high-spin ferropericlase, whereas in the low-spin state a trend to a more ionic nature of the Fe-O bond is observed, indicating a bond weakening effect of the spin transition. We found that the spin transition is ultimately caused by both an increase of the ligand field-splitting energy and a decreasing spin-pairing energy of high-spin Fe2+.
Plate tectonic boundaries constitute the suture zones between tectonic plates. They are shaped by a variety of distinct and interrelated processes and play a key role in geohazards and georesource formation. Many of these processes have been previously studied, while many others remain unaddressed or undiscovered. In this work, the geodynamic numerical modeling software ASPECT is applied to shed light on further process interactions at continental plate boundaries. In contrast to natural data, geodynamic modeling has the advantage that processes can be directly quantified and that all parameters can be analyzed over the entire evolution of a structure. Furthermore, processes and interactions can be singled out from complex settings because the modeler has full control over all of the parameters involved. To account for the simplifying character of models in general, I have chosen to study generic geological settings with a focus on the processes and interactions rather than precisely reconstructing a specific region of the Earth.
In Chapter 2, 2D models of continental rifts with different crustal thicknesses between 20 and 50 km and extension velocities in the range of 0.5-10 mm/yr are used to obtain a speed limit for the thermal steady-state assumption, commonly employed to address the temperature fields of continental rifts worldwide. Because the tectonic deformation from ongoing rifting outpaces heat conduction, the temperature field is not in equilibrium, but is characterized by a transient, tectonically-induced heat flow signal. As a result, I find that isotherm depths of the geodynamic evolution models are shallower than a temperature distribution in equilibrium would suggest. This is particularly important for deep isotherms and narrow rifts. In narrow rifts, the magnitude of the transient temperature signal limits a well-founded applicability of the thermal steady-state assumption to extension velocities of 0.5-2 mm/yr. Estimation of the crustal temperature field affects conclusions on all temperature-dependent processes ranging from mineral assemblages to the feasible exploitation of a geothermal reservoir.
In Chapter 3, I model the interactions of different rheologies with the kinematics of folding and faulting using the example of fault-propagation folds in the Andean fold-and-thrust belt. The evolution of the velocity fields from geodynamic models are compared with those from trishear models of the same structure. While the latter use only geometric and kinematic constraints of the main fault, the geodynamic models capture viscous, plastic, and elastic deformation in the entire model domain. I find that both models work equally well for early, and thus relatively simple stages of folding and faulting, while results differ for more complex situations where off-fault deformation and secondary faulting are present. As fault-propagation folds can play an important role in the formation of reservoirs, knowledge of fluid pathways, for example via fractures and faults, is crucial for their characterization.
Chapter 4 deals with a bending transform fault and the interconnections between tectonics and surface processes. In particular, the tectonic evolution of the Dead Sea Fault is addressed where a releasing bend forms the Dead Sea pull-apart basin, while a restraining bend further to the North resulted in the formation of the Lebanese mountains. I ran 3D coupled geodynamic and surface evolution models that included both types of bends in a single setup. I tested various randomized initial strain distributions, showing that basin asymmetry is a consequence of strain localization. Furthermore, by varying the surface process efficiency, I find that the deposition of sediment in the pull-apart basin not only controls basin depth, but also results in a crustal flow component that increases uplift at the restraining bend.
Finally, in Chapter 5, I present the computational basis for adding further complexity to plate boundary models in ASPECT with the implementation of earthquake-like behavior using the rate-and-state friction framework. Despite earthquakes happening on a relatively small time scale, there are many interactions between the seismic cycle and the long time spans of other geodynamic processes. Amongst others, the crustal state of stress as well as the presence of fluids or changes in temperature may alter the frictional behavior of a fault segment. My work provides the basis for a realistic setup of involved structures and processes, which is therefore important to obtain a meaningful estimate for earthquake hazards.
While these findings improve our understanding of continental plate boundaries, further development of geodynamic software may help to reveal even more processes and interactions in the future.