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Changes in species’ distributions are classically projected based on their climate envelopes. For Siberian forests, which have a tremendous significance for vegetation-climate feedbacks, this implies future shifts of each of the forest-forming larch (Larix) species to the north-east. However, in addition to abiotic factors, reliable projections must assess the role of historical biogeography and biotic interactions. Here, we use sedimentary ancient DNA and individual-based modelling to investigate the distribution of larch species and mitochondrial haplotypes through space and time across the treeline ecotone on the southern Taymyr peninsula, which at the same time presents a boundary area of two larch species. We find spatial and temporal patterns, which suggest that forest density is the most influential driver determining the precise distribution of species and mitochondrial haplotypes. This suggests a strong influence of competition on the species’ range shifts. These findings imply possible climate change outcomes that are directly opposed to projections based purely on climate envelopes. Investigations of such fine-scale processes of biodiversity change through time are possible using paleoenvironmental DNA, which is available much more readily than visible fossils and can provide information at a level of resolution that is not reached in classical palaeoecology.
Arctic treelines are facing a strong temperature increase as a result of recent global warming, causing possible changes in forest extent, which will alter vegetation-climate feedbacks. However, the mode and strength of the response is rather unclear, as potential changes are happening in areas that are very remote and difficult to access, and empirical data are still largely lacking. Here, we assessed the current population structure and genetic differentiation of Larix Mill. tree stands within the northernmost latitudinal treeline reaching ~ 72° N in the southern lowlands of the Taymyr Peninsula (~ 100° E). We sampled 743 individuals belonging to different height classes (seedlings, saplings, trees) at 11 locations along a gradient from ‘single tree’ tundra over ‘forest line’ to ‘dense forest’ stands and conducted investigations applying eight highly polymorphic nuclear microsatellites. Results suggest a high diversity within sub-populations (HE = 0.826–0.893), coupled, however, with heterozygote deficits in all sub-populations, but pronounced in ‘forest line’ stands. Overall, genetic differentiation of sub-populations is low (FST = 0.005), indicating a region-wide high gene flow, although ‘forest line’ stands harbour few rare and private alleles, likely indicating greater local reproduction. ‘Single tree’ stands, located beyond the northern forest line, are currently not involved in treeline expansion, but show signs of a long-term refuge, namely asexual reproduction and change of growth-form from erect to creeping growth, possibly having persisted for thousands of years. The lack of differentiation between the sub-populations points to a sufficiently high dispersal potential, and thus a rapid northward migration of the Siberian arctic treeline under recent global warming seems potentially unconstrained, but observations show it to be unexpectedly slow.
A potential human footprint on Western Central African rainforests before the Common Era has become the focus of an ongoing controversy. Between 3,000 y ago and 2,000 y ago, regional pollen sequences indicate a replacement of mature rainforests by a forest-savannah mosaic including pioneer trees. Although some studies suggested an anthropogenic influence on this forest fragmentation, current interpretations based on pollen data attribute the "rainforest crisis" to climate change toward a drier, more seasonal climate. A rigorous test of this hypothesis, however, requires climate proxies independent of vegetation changes. Here we resolve this controversy through a continuous 10,500-y record of both vegetation and hydrological changes from Lake Barombi in Southwest Cameroon based on changes in carbon and hydrogen isotope compositions of plant waxes. delta C-13-inferred vegetation changes confirm a prominent and abrupt appearance of C-4 plants in the Lake Barombi catchment, at 2,600 calendar years before AD 1950 (cal y BP), followed by an equally sudden return to rainforest vegetation at 2,020 cal y BP. delta D values from the same plant wax compounds, however, show no simultaneous hydrological change. Based on the combination of these data with a comprehensive regional archaeological database we provide evidence that humans triggered the rainforest fragmentation 2,600 y ago. Our findings suggest that technological developments, including agricultural practices and iron metallurgy, possibly related to the large-scale Bantu expansion, significantly impacted the ecosystems before the Common Era.