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Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
The gamma-ray spectrum of the low-frequency-peaked BL Lac (LBL) object AP Librae is studied, following the discovery of very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission up to the TeV range by the H.E.S.S. experiment. Thismakes AP Librae one of the few VHE emitters of the LBL type. The measured spectrum yields a flux of (8.8 +/- 1.5(stat) +/- 1.8(sys)) x 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1) above 130 GeV and a spectral index of Gamma = 2.65 +/- 0.19(stat) +/- 0.20(sys). This study also makes use of Fermi-LAT observations in the high energy (HE, E > 100 MeV) range, providing the longest continuous light curve (5 years) ever published on this source. The source underwent a flaring event between MJD 56 306-56 376 in the HE range, with a flux increase of a factor of 3.5 in the 14 day bin light curve and no significant variation in spectral shape with respect to the low-flux state. While the H.E.S.S. and (low state) Fermi-LAT fluxes are in good agreement where they overlap, a spectral curvature between the steep VHE spectrum and the Fermi-LAT spectrum is observed. The maximum of the gamma-ray emission in the spectral energy distribution is located below the GeV energy range.
Aims. Previous observations with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) have revealed an extended very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray source, HESS J1834-087, coincident with the supernova remnant (SNR) W41. The origin of the gamma-ray emission was investigated in more detail with the H.E.S.S. array and the Large Area Telescope (LAT) onboard the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope.
Methods. The gamma-ray data provided by 61 h of observations with H.E.S.S., and four years with the Fermi LAT were analyzed, covering over five decades in energy from 1.8 GeV up to 30 TeV. The morphology and spectrum of the TeV and GeV sources were studied and multiwavelength data were used to investigate the origin of the gamma-ray emission toward W41.
Results. The TeV source can be modeled with a sum of two components: one point-like and one significantly extended (sigma(TeV) = 0.17 degrees +/- 0.01 degrees), both centered on SNR W41 and exhibiting spectra described by a power law with index Gamma(TeV) similar or equal to 2.6. The GeV source detected with Fermi LAT is extended (sigma(GeV) = 0.15 degrees +/- 0.03 degrees) and morphologically matches the VHE emission. Its spectrum can be described by a power-law model with an index Gamma(GeV) = 2.15 +/- 0.12 and smoothly joins the spectrum of the whole TeV source. A break appears in the gamma-ray spectra around 100 GeV. No pulsations were found in the GeV range.
Conclusions. Two main scenarios are proposed to explain the observed emission: a pulsar wind nebula (PWN) or the interaction of SNR W41 with an associated molecular cloud. X-ray observations suggest the presence of a point-like source (a pulsar candidate) near the center of the remnant and nonthermal X-ray diffuse emission that could arise from the possibly associated PWN. The PWN scenario is supported by the compatible positions of the TeV and GeV sources with the putative pulsar. However, the spectral energy distribution from radio to gamma-rays is reproduced by a one-zone leptonic model only if an excess of low-energy electrons is injected following a Maxwellian distribution by a pulsar with a high spin-down power (> 10(37) erg s(-1)). This additional low-energy component is not needed if we consider that the point-like TeV source is unrelated to the extended GeV and TeV sources. The interacting SNR scenario is supported by the spatial coincidence between the gamma-ray sources, the detection of OH (1720 MHz) maser lines, and the hadronic modeling.
The Large Magellanic Cloud, a satellite galaxy of the Milky Way, has been observed with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) above an energy of 100 billion electron volts for a deep exposure of 210 hours. Three sources of different types were detected: the pulsar wind nebula of the most energetic pulsar known, N 157B; the radio-loud supernova remnant N 132D; and the largest nonthermal x-ray shell, the superbubble 30 Dor C. The unique object SN 1987A is, unexpectedly, not detected, which constrains the theoretical framework of particle acceleration in very young supernova remnants. These detections reveal the most energetic tip of a g-ray source population in an external galaxy and provide via 30 Dor C the unambiguous detection of g-ray emission from a superbubble.
Very high energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV)gamma-ray flaring activity of the high-frequency peaked BL Lac object PG 1553 + 113 has been detected by the H.E.S.S. telescopes. The flux of the source increased by a factor of 3 during the nights of 2012 April 26 and 27 with respect to the archival measurements with a hint of intra-night variability. No counterpart of this event has been detected in the Fermi-Large Area Telescope data. This pattern is consistent with VHE gamma(-)ray flaring being caused by the injection of ultrarelativistic particles, emitting.-rays at the highest energies. The dataset offers a unique opportunity to constrain the redshift of this source at z = 0.49 +/- 0.04 using a novel method based on Bayesian statistics. The indication of intra-night variability is used to introduce a novel method to probe for a possible Lorentz invariance violation (LIV), and to set limits on the energy scale at which Quantum Gravity (QG) effects causing LIV may arise. For the subluminal case, the derived limits are E-QG,E- 1 > 4.10 x 10(17) GeV and E-QG,E- 2 > 2.10 x 10(10) GeV for linear and quadratic LIV effects, respectively.
An annihilation signal of dark matter is searched for from the central region of the Milky Way. Data acquired in dedicated on-off observations of the Galactic center region with H.E.S.S. are analyzed for this purpose. No significant signal is found in a total of similar to 9 h of on-off observations. Upper limits on the velocity averaged cross section, <sigma upsilon >, for the annihilation of dark matter particles with masses in the range of similar to 300 GeV to similar to 10 TeV are derived. In contrast to previous constraints derived from observations of the Galactic center region, the constraints that are derived here apply also under the assumption of a central core of constant dark matter density around the center of the Galaxy. Values of <sigma upsilon > that are larger than 3 x 10(-24) cm(3)/s are excluded for dark matter particles with masses between similar to 1 and similar to 4 TeV at 95% C.L. if the radius of the central dark matter density core does not exceed 500 pc. This is the strongest constraint that is derived on <sigma upsilon > for annihilating TeV mass dark matter without the assumption of a centrally cusped dark matter density distribution in the search region.
Context. Puppis A is an interesting similar to 4 kyr-old supernova remnant (SNR) that shows strong evidence of interaction between the forward shock and a molecular cloud. It has been studied in detail from radio frequencies to high-energy (HE, 0.1-100 GeV) gamma-rays. An analysis of the Fermi-LAT data has shown extended HE gamma-ray emission with a 0.2-100 GeV spectrum exhibiting no significant deviation from a power law, unlike most of the GeV-emitting SNRs known to be interacting with molecular clouds. This makes it a promising target for imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs) to probe the gamma-ray emission above 100 GeV.
Aims. Very-high-energy (VHE, E >= 0.1 TeV) gamma-ray emission from Puppis A has been, for the first time, searched for with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS.).
Methods. Stereoscopic imaging of Cherenkov radiation from extensive air showers is used to reconstruct the direction and energy of the incident gamma-rays in order to produce sky images and source spectra. The profile likelihood method is applied to find constraints on the existence of a potential break or cutoff in the photon spectrum.
Results. The analysis of the HESS. data does not reveal any significant emission towards Puppis A. The derived upper limits on the differential photon flux imply that its broadband gamma-ray spectrum must exhibit a spectral break or cutoff. By combining Fermi-LAT and HESS. measurements, the 99% confidence-level upper limits on such a cutoff are found to be 450 and 280 GeV, assuming a power law with a simple exponential and a sub-exponential cutoff, respectively. It is concluded that none of the standard limitations (age, size, radiative losses) on the particle acceleration mechanism, assumed to be continuing at present, can explain the lack of VHE signal. The scenario in which particle acceleration has ceased some time ago is considered as an alternative explanation. The HE/VHE spectrum of Puppis A could then exhibit a break of non-radiative origin (as observed in several other interacting SNRs, albeit at somewhat higher energies), owing to the interaction with dense and neutral material, in particular towards the NE region.
G349.7+0.2 is a young Galactic supernova remnant (SNR) located at the distance of 11.5 kpc and observed across the entire electromagnetic spectrum from radio to high energy (HE; 0.1 GeV < E < 100 GeV) gamma-rays. Radio and infrared observations indicate that the remnant is interacting with a molecular cloud. In this paper, the detection of very high energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission coincident with this SNR with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS.) is reported. This makes it one of the farthest Galactic SNR ever detected in this domain. An integral flux F(E > 400 GeV) = (6.5 +/- 1.1(stat) +/- 1.3(syst)) x 10-11 ph cm(-2) s(-1) corresponding to similar to 0.7% of that of the Crab Nebula and to a luminosity of similar to 10(34) erg s(-1) above the same energy threshold, and a steep photon index Gamma(VHE) = 2.8 +/- 0.27(stat) +/- 0.20(syst) are measured. The analysis of more than 5 yr of Fermi-LAT data towards this source shows a power-law like spectrum with a best-fit photon index Gamma(HE) = 2.2 +/- 0.04.2(stat-0.31sys)(+0.13), The combined gamma-ray spectrum of 0349.7+0.2 can be described by either a broken power law (I3PL) or a power law with exponential (or sub exponential) cutoff (PLC). In the former case, the photon break energy is found at E-br,E-gamma = 551(-30)(+70) GeV, slightly higher than what is usually observed in the HE/VHE gamma-ray emitting middle-aged SNRs known to be interacting with molecular clouds. In the latter case. the exponential (respectively sub-exponential) cutoff energy is measured at E-cat,E-gamma = 1.4(-0.55)(+1.6) (respectively 0.35(-0.21)(+0.75)) TeV. A pion decay process resulting from the interaction of the accelerated protons and nuclei with the dense surrounding medium is clearly the preferred scenario to explain the gamma-ray emission. The BPL with a spectral steepening of 0.5-1 and the PLC provide equally good fits to the data. The product or the average gas density and the total energy content of accelerated protons and nuclei amounts to nu W-p similar to 5 x 10(51) erg cm(-3)
Re-observations with the HESS telescope array of the very high-energy (VHE) source HESS J1018-589A that is coincident with the Fermi-LAT gamma-ray binary 1FGL J1018.6-5856 have resulted in a source detection significance of more than 9 sigma and the detection of variability (chi(2)/nu of 238.3/155) in the emitted gamma-ray flux. This variability confirms the association of HESS J1018-589A with the high-energy gamma-ray binary detected Fermi-LAT and also confirms the point-like source as a new VHE binary system. The spectrum of HESS J1018-589A is best fit with a power-law function with photon index Gamma = 2.20 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.2(sys). Emission is detected up to similar to 20 TeV. The mean differential flux level is (2.9 +/- 0.4) x 10(-13) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1) at 1 TeV, equivalent to similar to 1% of the flux from the Crab Nebula at the same energy. Variability is clearly detected the night-by-night light curve. When folded on the orbital period of 16.58 days, the rebinned light curve peaks in phase with the observed X-ray high-energy phaseograms. The fit of the HESS phaseogram to a constant flux provides evidence of periodicity at the level of N-sigma > 3 sigma. The of the VHE phaseogram and measured spectrum suggest a low-inclination, low-eccentricity system with a modest impact from VHE gamma-ray due to pair production (tau less than or similar to 1 at 300 GeV).
The mechanisms by which climate and vegetation affect erosion rates over various time scales lie at the heart of understanding landscape response to climate change. Plot-scale field experiments show that increased vegetation cover slows erosion, implying that faster erosion should occur under low to moderate vegetation cover. However, demonstrating this concept over long time scales and across landscapes has proven to be difficult, especially in settings complicated by tectonic forcing and variable slopes. We investigate this problem by measuring cosmogenic Be-10-derived catchment-mean denudation rates across a range of climate zones and hillslope gradients in the Kenya Rift, and by comparing our results with those published from the Rwenzori Mountains of Uganda. We find that denudation rates from sparsely vegetated parts of the Kenya Rift are up to 0.13 mm/yr, while those from humid and more densely vegetated parts of the Kenya Rift flanks and the Rwenzori Mountains reach a maximum of 0.08 mm/yr, despite higher median hillslope gradients. While differences in lithology and recent land-use changes likely affect the denudation rates and vegetation cover values in some of our studied catchments, hillslope gradient and vegetation cover appear to explain most of the variation in denudation rates across the study area. Our results support the idea that changing vegetation cover can contribute to complex erosional responses to climate or land-use change and that vegetation cover can play an important role in determining the steady-state slopes of mountain belts through its stabilizing effects on the land surface.
Aging is a highly controlled biological process characterized by a progressive deterioration of various cellular activities. One of several hallmarks of aging describes a link to transcriptional alteration, suggesting that it may impact the steady-state mRNA levels. We analyzed the mRNA steady-state levels of polyCAG-encoding transgenes and endogenous genes under the control of well-characterized promoters for intestinal (vha-6), muscular (unc-54, unc-15) and pan-neuronal (rgef-1, unc-119) expression in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. We find that there is not a uniform change in transcriptional profile in aging, but rather a tissue-specific difference in the mRNA levels of these genes. While levels of mRNA in the intestine (vha-6) and muscular (unc-54, unc-15) cells decline with age, pan-neuronal tissue shows more stable mRNA expression (rgef-1, unc-119) which even slightly increases with the age of the animals. Our data on the variations in the mRNA abundance from exemplary cases of endogenous and transgenic gene expression contribute to the emerging evidence for tissue-specific variations in the aging process.
We assessed intra-individual variability of response times (RT) and single-trial P3 amplitudes following targets in healthy adults during a Flanker/NO-GO task. RT variability and variability of the neural responses coupled at the faster frequencies examined (0.07-0.17 Hz) at Pz, the target-P3 maxima, despite non-significant associations for overall variability (standard deviation, SD). Frequency-specific patterns of variability in the single-trial P3 may help to understand the neurophysiology of RT variability and its explanatory models of attention allocation deficits beyond intra-individual variability summary indices such as SD.
A concentrated solution of a symmetric triblock copolymer with a thermoresponsive poly(methoxy diethylene glycol acrylate) (PMDEGA) middle block and short hydrophobic, fully deuterated polystyrene end blocks is investigated in D2O where it undergoes a lower critical solution temperature-type phase transition at ca. 36 A degrees C. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) in a wide temperature range (15-50 A degrees C) is used to characterize the size and inner structure of the micelles as well as the correlation between the micelles and the formation of aggregates by the micelles above the cloud point (CP). A model featuring spherical core-shell micelles, which are correlated by a hard-sphere potential or a sticky hard-sphere potential together with a Guinier form factor describing aggregates formed by the micelles above the CP, fits the SANS curves well in the entire temperature range. The thickness of the thermoresponsive micellar PMDEGA shell as well as the hard-sphere radius increase slightly already below the cloud point. Whereas the thickness of the thermoresponsive micellar shell hardly shrinks when heating through the CP and up to 50 A degrees C, the hard-sphere radius decreases within 3.5 K at the CP. The volume fraction decreases already significantly below the CP, which may be at the origin of the previously observed gel-sol transition far below the CP (Miasnikova et al., Langmuir 28: 4479-4490, 2012). Above the CP, small, and at higher temperatures, large aggregates are formed by the micelles.
Climate or Land Use?
(2015)
This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950-2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability.
Purpose: Ethnic minority groups show elevated suicide attempt rates across Europe. Evidence suggests a similar trend for women of Turkish origin in Germany, yet data on suicidal behaviour in minorities in Germany is scarce. The objective was to examine rates of suicidal behaviour, underlying motives, and to explore the effectiveness of an intervention program.
Methods: From 05/2009-09/2011, data on all suicide attempts among women of Turkish origin who presented at a hospital-based emergency unit in Berlin, Germany, were collected. A multi-modal intervention was conducted in 2010 and the effects of age, generation and the intervention on suicide attempt rates were examined.
Results: At the start, the highest rate was found in women aged 18-24 years with 225.4 (95% CI = 208.8-242.0)/100,000. Adjustment disorder was the most prevalent diagnosis with 49.7% (n = 79), being more common in second-generation women (P = .004). Further analyses suggested an effect of the intervention in the youngest age group (trend change of beta = -1.25; P = .017).
Conclusion: Our findings suggest a particularly high rate of suicide attempts by 18-24-year-old, second-generation women of Turkish origin in Berlin. Furthermore, our results suggest a trend change in suicide attempts in women aged 18-24 years related to a population-based intervention program. (C) 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Samples of 474 forest stands in Germany were analysed for concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in three sampling depths. Enhanced concentrations were mainly found at spots relatively close to densely industrialized and urbanized regions and at some topographically elevated areas. Average enrichment factors between mineral soil and humic layer depend on humus type i.e. decrease from mull via moder to more Based on their compound-patterns, the observed samples could be assigned to three main clusters. For some parts of our study area a uniform assignment of samples to clusters over larger regions could be identified. For instance, samples taken at vicinity to brown-coal strip-mining districts are characterized by high relative abundances of low-molecular-weight PAHs. These results suggest that PAHs are more likely originated from local and regional emitters rather than from long-range transport and that specific source-regions can be identified based on PAH fingerprints. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Central Asia is located at the confluence of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems. It is thus likely to be highly susceptible to changes in the dynamics of those systems; however, little is still known about the regional paleoclimate history. Here we present carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of n-alkanoic acids from a late Holocene sediment core from Lake Karakuli (eastern Pamir, Xinjiang Province, China). Instrumental evidence and isotopeenabled climate model experiments with the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique Zoom model version 4 (LMDZ4) demonstrate that delta D values of precipitation in the region are influenced by both temperature and precipitation amount. We find that these parameters are inversely correlated on an annual scale, i.e., the climate has varied between relatively cool and wet and more warm and dry over the last 50 years. Since the isotopic signals of these changes are in the same direction and therefore additive, isotopes in precipitation are sensitive recorders of climatic changes in the region. Additionally, we infer that plants use year-round precipitation (including snowmelt), and thus leaf wax delta D values must also respond to shifts in the proportion of moisture derived from westerly storms during late winter and early spring. Downcore results give evidence for a gradual shift to cooler and wetter climates between 3.5 and 2.5 cal kyr BP, interrupted by a warm and dry episode between 3.0 and 2.7 kyr BP. Further cool and wet episodes occur between 1.9 and 1.5 and between 0.6 and 0.1 kyr BP, the latter coeval with the Little Ice Age. Warm and dry episodes from 2.5 to 1.9 and 1.5 to 0.6 kyr BP coincide with the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly, respectively. Finally, we find a drying tend in recent decades. Regional comparisons lead us to infer that the strength and position of the westerlies, and wider northern hemispheric climate dynamics, control climatic shifts in arid Central Asia, leading to complex local responses. Our new archive from Lake Karakuli provides a detailed record of the local signatures of these climate transitions in the eastern Pamir.
We study the possibility of obtaining a computational turbulence model by means of non-dissipative regularisation of the compressible atmospheric equations for climate-type applications. We use an -regularisation (Lagrangian averaging) of the atmospheric equations. For the hydrostatic and compressible atmospheric equations discretised using a finite volume method on unstructured grids, deterministic and non-deterministic numerical experiments are conducted to compare the individual solutions and the statistics of the regularised equations to those of the original model. The impact of the regularisation parameter is investigated. Our results confirm the principal compatibility of -regularisation with atmospheric dynamics and encourage further investigations within atmospheric model including complex physical parametrisations.