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Forecasting the onset and withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon is crucial for the life and prosperity of more than one billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. However, accurate prediction of monsoon timing remains a challenge, despite numerous efforts. Here we present a method for prediction of monsoon timing based on a critical transition precursor. We identify geographic regions-tipping elements of the monsoon-and use them as observation locations for predicting onset and withdrawal dates. Unlike most predictability methods, our approach does not rely on precipitation analysis but on air temperature and relative humidity, which are well represented both in models and observations. The proposed method allows to predict onset 2 weeks earlier and withdrawal dates 1.5 months earlier than existing methods. In addition, it enables to correctly forecast monsoon duration for some anomalous years, often associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
A gelatin-poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid), PLGA, composite scaffold, featuring a highly oriented pore channel structure, was developed as a template for articular cartilage regeneration. As a design principle the composite scaffold was optimized to contain only medical grade educts and accordingly no chemical cross linking agents or other toxicological relevant substances or methods were used. Scaffolds were synthesized using a freeze structuring method combined with an electrochemical process followed by freeze-drying. Finally, cross linking was performed using dehydrothermal treatment, which was simultaneously used for sterilization purposes. These composite scaffolds were analyzed in regard to structural and biomechanical properties, and to their degradation behavior. Furthermore, cell culture performance was tested using chondrocytes originated from joint articular cartilage tissue from 6 to 10 months old domestic pigs. Finally, the scaffolds were tested for tissue biocompatibility and their ability for tissue integration in a rat model. The scaffolds showed both excellent functional performance and high biocompatibility in vitro and in vivo. We expect that these gelatin-PLGA scaffolds can effectively support chondrogenesis in vivo demonstrating great potential for the use in cartilage defect treatment. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The slicing facility FemtoSpeX at BESSY II offers unique opportunities to study photo-induced dynamics on femtosecond time scales by means of X-ray magnetic circular dichroism, resonant and non-resonant X-ray diffraction, and X-ray absorption spectroscopy experiments in the soft X-ray regime. Besides femtosecond X-ray pulses, slicing sources inherently also produce a so-called `halo' background with a different time structure, polarization and pointing. Here a detailed experimental characterization of the halo radiation is presented, and a method is demonstrated for its correct and unambiguous removal from femtosecond time-resolved data using a special laser triggering scheme as well as analytical models. Examples are given for time-resolved measurements with corresponding halo correction, and errors of the relevant physical quantities caused by either neglecting or by applying a simplified model to describe this background are estimated.
The accretion of the stellar wind material by a compact object represents the main mechanism powering the X-ray emission in classical supergiant high mass X-ray binaries and supergiant fast X-ray transients. In this work we present the first attempt to simulate the accretion process of a fast and dense massive star wind onto a neutron star, taking into account the effects of the centrifugal and magnetic inhibition of accretion ("gating") due to the spin and magnetic field of the compact object. We made use of a radiative hydrodynamical code to model the nonstationary radiatively driven wind of an O-B supergiant star and then place a neutron star characterized by a fixed magnetic field and spin period at a certain distance from the massive companion. Our calculations follow, as a function of time (on a total timescale of several hours), the transitions of the system through all different accretion regimes that are triggered by the intrinsic variations in the density and velocity of the nonstationary wind. The X-ray luminosity released by the system is computed at each time step by taking into account the relevant physical processes occurring in the different accretion regimes. Synthetic lightcurves are derived and qualitatively compared with those observed from classical supergiant high mass X-ray binaries and supergiant fast X-ray transients. Although a number of simplifications are assumed in these calculations, we show that taking into account the effects of the centrifugal and magnetic inhibition of accretion significantly reduces the average X-ray luminosity expected for any neutron star wind-fed binary. The present model calculations suggest that long spin periods and stronger magnetic fields are favored in order to reproduce the peculiar behavior of supergiant fast X-ray transients in the X-ray domain.
We present the Neural-network-based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination (NURD) algorithm for automatic inference of the electron number density from plasma wave measurements made on board NASA's Van Allen Probes mission. A feedforward neural network is developed to determine the upper hybrid resonance frequency, fuhr, from electric field measurements, which is then used to calculate the electron number density. In previous missions, the plasma resonance bands were manually identified, and there have been few attempts to do robust, routine automated detections. We describe the design and implementation of the algorithm and perform an initial analysis of the resulting electron number density distribution obtained by applying NURD to 2.5 years of data collected with the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) instrumentation suite of the Van Allen Probes mission. Densities obtained by NURD are compared to those obtained by another recently developed automated technique and also to an existing empirical plasmasphere and trough density model.
We investigate the role of interatomic interactions when a Bose gas, in a double-well potential with a finite tunneling probability (a 'Bose–Josephson junction'), is exposed to external noise. We examine the rate of decoherence of a system initially in its ground state with equal probability amplitudes in both sites. The noise may induce two kinds of effects: firstly, random shifts in the relative phase or number difference between the two wells and secondly, loss of atoms from the trap. The effects of induced phase fluctuations are mitigated by atom–atom interactions and tunneling, such that the dephasing rate may be suppressed by half its single-atom value. Random fluctuations may also be induced in the population difference between the wells, in which case atom–atom interactions considerably enhance the decoherence rate. A similar scenario is predicted for the case of atom loss, even if the loss rates from the two sites are equal. We find that if the initial state is number-squeezed due to interactions, then the loss process induces population fluctuations that reduce the coherence across the junction. We examine the parameters relevant for these effects in a typical atom chip device, using a simple model of the trapping potential, experimental data, and the theory of magnetic field fluctuations near metallic conductors. These results provide a framework for mapping the dynamical range of barriers engineered for specific applications and set the stage for more complex atom circuits ('atomtronics').
The origin of the magnetic field in massive O-type stars is still under debate. To model the physical processes responsible for the generation of O star magnetic fields, it is important to understand whether correlations between the presence of a magnetic field and stellar evolutionary state, rotation velocity, kinematical status, and surface composition can be identified. The O4 Ief supergiant zeta Pup is a fast rotator and a runaway star, which may be a product of a past binary interaction, possibly having had an encounter with the cluster Trumper 10 some 2 Myr ago. The currently available observational material suggests that certain observed phenomena in this star may be related to the presence of a magnetic field. We acquired spectropolarimetric observations of zeta Pup with FORS 2 mounted on the 8 m Antu telescope of the Very Large Telescope to investigate if a magnetic field is indeed present in this star. We show that many spectral lines are highly variable and probably vary with the recently detected period of 1.78 day. No magnetic field is detected in zeta Pup, as no magnetic field measurement has a significance level higher than 2.4 sigma. Still, we studied the probability of a single sinusoidal explaining the variation of the longitudinal magnetic field measurements.
To investigate if magnetic fields are present in Wolf-Rayet stars, we selected a few stars in the Galaxy and one in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). We acquired low-resolution spectropolarimetric observations with the European Southern Observatory FORS 2 (FOcal Reducer low dispersion Spectrograph) instrument during two different observing runs. During the first run in visitor mode, we observed the LMC Wolf-Rayet star BAT99 7 and the stars WR 6, WR 7, WR 18, and WR 23 in our Galaxy. The second run in service mode was focused on monitoring the star WR 6. Linear polarization was recorded immediately after the observations of circular polarization. During our visitor observing run, the magnetic field for the cyclically variable star WR 6 was measured at a significance level of 3.3 sigma (< B-z > = 258 +/- 78 G). Among the other targets, the highest value for the longitudinal magnetic field, < B-z > = 327 +/- 141 G, was measured in the LMC star BAT99 7. Spectropolarimetric monitoring of the star WR 6 revealed a sinusoidal nature of the < B-z > variations with the known rotation period of 3.77 d, significantly adding to the confidence in the detection. The presence of the rotation-modulated magnetic variability is also indicated in our frequency periodogram. The reported field magnitude suffers from significant systematic uncertainties at the factor of 2 level, in addition to the quoted statistical uncertainties, owing to the theoretical approach used to characterize it. Linear polarization measurements showed no line effect in the stars, apart from WR 6. BAT99 7, WR 7, and WR 23 do not show variability of the linear polarization over two nights.
Particle diffusion and localized acceleration in inhomogeneous AGN jets - II. Stochastic variation
(2016)
We study the stochastic variation of blazar emission under a 2D spatially resolved leptonic jet model we previously developed. Random events of particle acceleration and injection in small zones within the emission region are assumed to be responsible for flux variations. In addition to producing spectral energy distributions that describe the observed flux of Mrk 421, we further analyse the timing properties of the simulated light curves, such as the power spectral density (PSD) at different bands, flux-flux correlations, aswell as the cross-correlation function between X-rays and TeV gamma-rays. We find spectral breaks in the PSD at a time-scale comparable to the dominant characteristic time-scale in the system, which is usually the predefined decay time-scale of an acceleration event. Cooling imposes a delay, and so PSDs taken at lower energy bands in each emission component (synchrotron or inverse Compton) generally break at longer time-scales. The flux-flux correlation between X-rays and TeV gamma-rays can be either quadratic or linear, depending on whether or not there are large variation of the injection into the particle acceleration process. When the relationship is quadratic, the TeV flares lag the X-ray flares, and the optical and GeV flares are large enough to be comparable to the ones in X-ray. When the relationship is linear, the lags are insignificant, and the optical and GeV flares are small.
Recombination of free charge is a key process limiting the performance of solar cells. For low mobility materials, such as organic semiconductors, the kinetics of non-geminate recombination (NGR) is strongly linked to the motion of charges. As these materials possess significant disorder, thermalization of photogenerated carriers in the inhomogeneously broadened density of state distribution is an unavoidable process. Despite its general importance, knowledge about the kinetics of NGR in complete organic solar cells is rather limited. We employ time delayed collection field (TDCF) experiments to study the recombination of photogenerated charge in the high-performance polymer: fullerene blend PCDTBT:PCBM. NGR in the bulk of this amorphous blend is shown to be highly dispersive, with a continuous reduction of the recombination coefficient throughout the entire time scale, until all charge carriers have either been extracted or recombined. Rapid, contact-mediated recombination is identified as an additional loss channel, which, if not properly taken into account, would erroneously suggest a pronounced field dependence of charge generation. These findings are in stark contrast to the results of TDCF experiments on photovoltaic devices made from ordered blends, such as P3HT:PCBM, where non-dispersive recombination was proven to dominate the charge carrier dynamics under application relevant conditions.
To turn or not to turn?
(2016)
Bacteria typically swim in straight runs, interruped by sudden turning events. In particular, some species are limited to a reversal in the swimming direction as the only turning maneuver at their disposal. In a recent article, Grossmann et al (2016 New J. Phys. 18 043009) introduce a theoretical framework to analyze the diffusive properties of active particles following this type of run-and-reverse pattern. Based on a stochastic clock model to mimic the regulatory pathway that triggers reversal events, they show that a run-and-reverse swimmer can optimize its diffusive spreading by tuning the reversal rate according to the level of rotational noise. With their approach, they open up promising new perspectives of how to incorporate the dynamics of intracellular signaling into coarse-grained active particle descriptions.
Using Causal Effect Networks to Analyze Different Arctic Drivers of Midlatitude Winter Circulation
(2016)
In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have suffered from severe winters like the extreme 2012/13 winter in the eastern United States. These cold spells were linked to a meandering upper-tropospheric jet stream pattern and a negative Arctic Oscillation index (AO). However, the nature of the drivers behind these circulation patterns remains controversial. Various studies have proposed different mechanisms related to changes in the Arctic, most of them related to a reduction in sea ice concentrations or increasing Eurasian snow cover. Here, a novel type of time series analysis, called causal effect networks (CEN), based on graphical models is introduced to assess causal relationships and their time delays between different processes. The effect of different Arctic actors on winter circulation on weekly to monthly time scales is studied, and robust network patterns are found. Barents and Kara sea ice concentrations are detected to be important external drivers of the midlatitude circulation, influencing winter AO via tropospheric mechanisms and through processes involving the stratosphere. Eurasia snow cover is also detected to have a causal effect on sea level pressure in Asia, but its exact role on AO remains unclear. The CEN approach presented in this study overcomes some difficulties in interpreting correlation analyses, complements model experiments for testing hypotheses involving teleconnections, and can be used to assess their validity. The findings confirm that sea ice concentrations in autumn in the Barents and Kara Seas are an important driver of winter circulation in the midlatitudes.
Many previous studies have shown that the turbulent mixing layer under periodic forcing tends to adopt a lock-on state, where the major portion of the fluctuations in the flow are synchronized at the forcing frequency. The goal of this experimental study is to apply closed-loop control in order to provoke the lock-on state, using information from the flow itself. We aim to determine the range of frequencies for which the closed-loop control can establish the lock-on, and what mechanisms are contributing to the selection of a feedback frequency. In order to expand the solution space for optimal closed-loop control laws, we use the genetic programming control (CPC) framework. The best closed-loop control laws obtained by CPC are analysed along with the associated physical mechanisms in the mixing layer flow. The resulting closed-loop control significantly outperforms open-loop forcing in terms of robustness to changes in the free-stream velocities. In addition, the selection of feedback frequencies is not locked to the most amplified local mode, but rather a range of frequencies around it.
Light-induced DNA compaction as part of nonviral gene delivery was investigated intensively in the past years, although the bridging between the artificial light switchable compacting.agents and biodompatible light insensitive compacting agents was not achieved until now. In this paper, we report on light-induced compaction and decompaction of DNA molecules in the presence of a new typeof agent, a multivalent cationic peptidomimetic molecule containing a photosensitive Azo-group as a branch (Azo-PM). Az-o-PM is synthesized using a solid-phase procedure during Which anrazoberizene unit is attached as a side chain to an Oligo(arnidoamine) backbone. We shoW, that within a-certain Tange,of concentrations and under illumination with light of appropriate-wavelengths, these cationic Molecules induce reversible DNA compaction/decompaction by photo-isomerization of the incorporated azobenzene unit between a hydrophobic trans- and 4 hydrophilic cis-conformation, as characterized by dynamic light scattering and AFM measurements. In contrast to other molecular Species used for invasive DNA compaction, such as-widely used azobenzene containing cationic surfactant (Azo-TAR, C-4-Azo-OCX-TMAB), the presented peptidomimetic agent appears to lead to different compleication/compaction mechanisms., An investigation of Ato-PM in close proximity to a DNA segment by means of a molecular dynamics simulation sustains a picture in which Azo-PM acts as a multivalent counterion, with its rather large cationic oligo(amidoamine) backbone dominating the interaction with the double helix, fine-tuned or assisted by the presence" andisomerization state of the Azo-moiety. However, due to its peptidomimetic backbone, Azo-PM should be far less toxic than photosensitive surfactants and might represent a starting point for a conscious design of photoswitchable, biocompatible vectors for gene delivery.
Aims. Doubly ionized silicon (Si III) is a powerful tracer of diffuse ionized gas inside and outside of galaxies. It can be observed in the local Universe in ultraviolet (UV) absorption against bright extragalactic background sources. We here present an extensive study of intervening Si III-selected absorbers and study the properties of the warm circumgalactic medium (CGM) around low-redshift (z <= 0.1) galaxies. Methods. We analyzed the UV absorption spectra of 303 extragalactic background sources, as obtained with the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) on-board the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We developed a geometrical model for the absorption-cross section of the CGM around the local galaxy population and compared the observed Si III absorption statistics with predictions provided by the model. We also compared redshifts and positions of the absorbers with those of similar to 64 000 galaxies using archival galaxy-survey data to investigate the relation between intervening Si III absorbers and the CGM. Results. Along a total redshift path of Delta z approximate to 24, we identify 69 intervening Si III systems that all show associated absorption from other low and high ions (e.g., H I, Si II, Si IV, C II, C IV). We derive a bias-corrected number density of dN/dz(Si III) = 2.5 +/- 0.4 for absorbers with column densities log N(Si III) > 12.2, which is similar to 3 times the number density of strong Mg II systems at z = 0. This number density matches the expected cross section of a Si III absorbing CGM around the local galaxy population with a mean covering fraction of < f(c)> = 0.69. For the majority (similar to 60 percent) of the absorbers, we identify possible host galaxies within 300 km s(-1) of the absorbers and derive impact parameters rho < 200 kpc, demonstrating that the spatial distributions of Si III absorbers and galaxies are highly correlated. Conclusions. Our study indicates that the majority of Si III-selected absorbers in our sample trace the CGM of nearby galaxies within their virial radii at a typical covering fraction of similar to 70 percent. We estimate that diffuse gas in the CGM around galaxies, as traced by Si III, contains substantially more (more than twice as much) baryonic mass than their neutral interstellar medium.
Context. For the spectral analysis of high-resolution and high signal-to-noise (S/N) spectra of hot stars, state-of-the-art non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) model atmospheres are mandatory. These are strongly dependent on the reliability of the atomic data that is used for their calculation. Aims. New Kr IV-VII oscillator strengths for a large number of lines enable us to construct more detailed model atoms for our NLTE model-atmosphere calculations. This enables us to search for additional Kr lines in observed spectra and to improve Kr abundance determinations. Methods. We calculated Kr IV-VII oscillator strengths to consider radiative and collisional bound-bound transitions in detail in our NLTE stellar-atmosphere models for the analysis of Kr lines that are exhibited in high-resolution and high S/N ultraviolet (UV) observations of the hot white dwarf RE 0503-289. Results. We reanalyzed the effective temperature and surface gravity and determined T-eff = 70 000 +/- 2000 K and log (g/cm s(-2)) = 7.5 +/- 0.1. We newly identified ten Kr V lines and one Kr vi line in the spectrum of RE 0503-289. We measured a Kr abundance of 3.3 +/- 0.3 (logarithmic mass fraction). We discovered that the interstellar absorption toward RE 0503-289 has a multi-velocity structure within a radial-velocity interval of -40 km s(-1) < upsilon(rad) < +18 km s(-1). Conclusions. Reliable measurements and calculations of atomic data are a prerequisite for state-of-the-art NLTE stellar-atmosphere modeling. Observed Kr V-VII line profiles in the UV spectrum of the white dwarf RE 0503-289 were simultaneously well reproduced with our newly calculated oscillator strengths.
Between the beginning of its full-scale scientific operations in 2007 and 2012, the VERITAS Cherenkov telescope array observed more than 130 blazars; of these, 26 were detected as very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray sources. In this work, we present the analysis results of a sample of 114 undetected objects. The observations constitute a total live-time of similar to 570 hr. The sample includes several unidentified Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) sources (located at high Galactic latitude) as well as all the sources from the second Fermi-LAT catalog that are contained within the field of view of the VERITAS observations. We have also performed optical spectroscopy measurements in order to estimate the redshift of some of these blazars that do not have spectroscopic distance estimates. We present new optical spectra from the Kast instrument on the Shane telescope at the Lick observatory for 18 blazars included in this work, which allowed for the successful measurement or constraint on the redshift of four of them. For each of the blazars included in our sample, we provide the flux upper limit in the VERITAS energy band. We also study the properties of the significance distributions and we present the result of a stacked analysis of the data set, which shows a 4s excess.
Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental process of topology change and energy release, taking place in plasmas on the Sun, in space, in astrophysical objects and in the laboratory. However, observational evidence has been relatively rare and typically only partial. Here we present evidence of fast reconnection in a solar filament eruption using high-resolution H-alpha images from the New Vacuum Solar Telescope, supplemented by extreme ultraviolet observations. The reconnection is seen to occur between a set of ambient chromospheric fibrils and the filament itself. This allows for the relaxation of magnetic tension in the filament by an untwisting motion, demonstrating a flux rope structure. The topology change and untwisting are also found through nonlinear force-free field modelling of the active region in combination with magnetohydrodynamic simulation. These results demonstrate a new role for reconnection in solar eruptions: the release of magnetic twist.
We present a novel experimental setup to investigate two-dimensional thermal convection in a freestanding thin liquid film. Such films can be produced in a controlled way on the scale of 5-1000 nm. Our primary goal is to investigate convection patterns and the statistics of reversals in Rayleigh-Benard convection with varying aspect ratio. Additionally, questions regarding the physics of liquid films under controlled conditions can be investigated, like surface forces, or stability under varying thermodynamical parameters. The film is suspended in a frame which can be adjusted in height and width to span an aspect ratio range of Gamma = 0.16-10. The top and bottom frame elements can be set to specific temperature within T = 15 degrees C to 55 degrees C. A thickness to area ratio of approximately 108 enables only two-dimensional fluid motion in the time scales relevant for turbulent motion. The chemical composition of the film is well-defined and optimized for film stability and reproducibility and in combination with carefully controlled ambient parameters allows the comparison to existing experimental and numerical data. Published by AIP Publishing.
Assessing global impacts of unexpected meteorological events in an increasingly connected world economy is important for estimating the costs of climate change. We show that since the beginning of the 21st century, the structural evolution of the global supply network has been such as to foster an increase of climate-related production losses. We compute first- and higher-order losses from heat stress-induced reductions in productivity under changing economic and climatic conditions between 1991 and 2011. Since 2001, the economic connectivity has augmented in such a way as to facilitate the cascading of production loss. The influence of this structural change has dominated over the effect of the comparably weak climate warming during this decade. Thus, particularly under future warming, the intensification of international trade has the potential to amplify climate losses if no adaptation measures are taken.