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El flanco oriental de los Andes Centrales en el noroeste argentino es una zona caracterizada por serranías limitadas por fallas inversas que conforman un orógeno de piel gruesa activo con un patrón espacio-temporal no sistemático de deformación contraccional. Este patrón queda representado tanto por la dispersión de la actividad sísmica cortical como de la localización de las estructuras cuaternarias a través de la Cordillera Oriental y el Sistema de Santa Bárbara, configurando un frente orogénico difuso de más de 200 km de extensión. El estudio de la actividad neotectónica en esta región ha tomado más relevancia en los últimos años, mediante la aplicación de herramientas variadas, incluyendo técnicas de geomorfología tectónica, herramientas de teledetección, geodesia y estudios de campo convencionales. Los depósitos lacustres han demostrado ser, en numerosos ejemplos, excelentes marcadores de la actividad tectónica, dadas la horizontalidad original de sus capas y la susceptibilidad a los cambios del entorno. Es por ello que en este trabajo se analizaron los depósitos lacustres que afloran en el sector central de los valles Calchaquíes (región de Cafayate), para comprender cómo se acomoda la deformación cuaternaria en una de las cuencas intermontanas de la cuña orogénica activa.
El rumbo de las estructuras cuaternarias en el área de estudio es subparalelo al de las fallas que exhuman los cordones serranos circundantes. A partir del estudio estratigráfico, morfotectónico y estructural de los depósitos lacustres, se identificó un mínimo de cinco episodios de deformación afectando a la columna estratigráfica cuaternaria. Integrando perfiles estructurales balanceados con edades obtenidas en este trabajo y recopiladas de la bibliografía, se calcularon para el Pleistoceno mediotardío, tasas mínimas y máximas de acortamiento que varían entre 0,19-2,80 y 0,21-4,47 mm/a, respectivamente. Para comparar estos resultados con mediciones de la tectónica activa a escala regional se recopilaron datos de estaciones geodésicas del noroeste argentino, con los cuales se elaboró un perfil de velocidades horizontales. El perfil obtenido muestra un decrecimiento gradual de los vectores hacia el este, indicando actividad interna del orógeno en congruencia con los registros de actividad sísmica y compilación regional de las estructuras cuaternarias.
Además de la caracterización neotectónica de este sector de la Cordillera Oriental, el análisis estratigráfico de los depósitos lacustres ha permitido refinar la evolución geológica del sector central de los valles Calchaquíes durante el Cuaternario. De esta manera se han identificado al menos siete episodios de inundación lacustre relacionados con la desconexión del sistema fluvial con su nivel de base, dando lugar a sucesivos eventos de agradación y erosión. Las cotas máximas alcanzadas por los paleolagos, en conjunto con un modelo hidrológico previamente publicado para esta región, permitieron asimismo efectuar una comparación con el registro paleoclimático regional.
Los resultados de esta tesis representan un aporte significativo al conocimiento de la evolución tectónica y estratigráfica del sector central de los valles Calchaquíes durante el Cuaternario. Por otra parte, su integración a escala regional contribuye a comprender mejor la dinámica de la deformación en la cuña orogénica de piel gruesa del noroeste argentino.
We developed an orbital tuned age model for the composite Chew Bahir sediment core, obtained from the Chew Bahir basin (CHB), southern Ethiopia. To account for the effects of sedimentation rate changes on the spectral expression of the orbital cycles we developed a new method: the Multi-band Wavelet Age modeling technique (MUBAWA). By using a Continuous Wavelet Transformation, we were able to track frequency shifts that resulted from changing sedimentation rates and thus calculated tuned age model encompassing the last 620 kyrs. The results show a good agreement with the directly dated age model that is available from the dating of volcanic ashes. Then we used the XRF data from CHB and developed a new and robust humid-arid index of east African climate during the last 620 kyrs. To disentangle the relationship of the selected elements we performed a principal component analysis (PCA). In a following step we applied a continuous wavelet transformation on the PC1, using the directly dated age model. The resulting wavelet power spectrum, unlike a normal power spectrum, displays the occurrence of cycles/frequencies in time. The results highlight that the precession cycles are most dominantly expressed under the 400 kyrs eccentricity maximum whereas weakly expressed during eccentricity minimum. This suggests that insolation is a key driver of the climatic variability observed at CHB throughout the last 620 kyrs. In addition, the prevalence of half-precession and obliquity signals was documented. The latter is attributed to the inter-tropical insolation gradient and not interpreted as an imprint of high latitudes forcing on climatic changes in the tropics. In addition, a windowed analysis of variability was used to detect changes in variance over time and showed that strong climate variability occurred especially along the transition from a dominant insolation-controlled humid climate background state towards a predominantly dry and less-insolation controlled climate. The last chapter dealt with non-linear aspects of climate changes represented by the sediments of the CHB. We use recurrence quantification analysis to detect non-linear changes within the potassium concentration of Chew Bahir sediment cores during the last 620 kyrs. The concentration of potassium in the sediments of the lake is subject to geochemical processes related to the evaporation rate of the lake water at the time of deposition. Based on recurrence analysis, two types of variabilities could be distinguished. Type 1 represents slow variations within the precession period bandwidth of 20 kyrs and a tendency towards extreme climatic events whereas type 2 represents fast, highly variable climatic transitions between wet and dry climate states. While type 1 variability is linked to eccentricity maxima, type 2 variability occurs during the 400 kyrs eccentricity minimum. The climate history presented here shows that during high eccentricity a strongly insolation-driven climate system prevailed, whereas during low eccentricity the climate was more strongly affected by short-term variability changes. The short-term environmental changes, reflected in the increased variability might have influenced the evolution, technological advances and expansion of early modern humans who lived in this region. In the Olorgesaille Basin the temporal changes in the occurrence of stone tools, which bracket the transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age (MSA) technologies at between 499–320 kyrs, could potentially correlate to the marked transition from a rather stable climate with less variability to a climate with increased variability in the CHB. We conclude that populations of early anatomically modern humans are more likely to have experienced climatic stress during episodes of low eccentricity, associated with dry and high variability climate conditions, which may have led to technological innovation, such as the transition from the Acheulean to the Middle Stone Age.
Fluids in the Earth's crust can move by creating and flowing through fractures, in a process called `hydraulic fracturing’. The tip-line of such fluid-filled fractures grows at locations where stress is larger than the strength of the rock. Where the tip stress vanishes, the fracture closes and the fluid-front retreats. If stress gradients exist on the fracture's walls, induced by fluid/rock density contrasts or topographic stresses, this results in an asymmetric shape and growth of the fracture, allowing for the contained batch of fluid to propagate through the crust.
The state-of-the-art analytical and numerical methods to simulate fluid-filled fracture propagation are two-dimensional (2D). In this work I extend these to three dimensions (3D). In my analytical method, I approximate the propagating 3D fracture as a penny-shaped crack that is influenced by both an internal pressure and stress gradients. In addition, I develop a numerical method to model propagation where curved fractures can be simulated as a mesh of triangular dislocations, with the displacement of faces computed using the displacement discontinuity method. I devise a rapid technique to approximate stress intensity and use this to calculate the advance of the tip-line. My 3D models can be applied to arbitrary stresses, topographic and crack shapes, whilst retaining short computation times.
I cross-validate my analytical and numerical methods and apply them to various natural and man-made settings, to gain additional insights into the movements of hydraulic fractures such as magmatic dikes and fluid injections in rock. In particular, I calculate the `volumetric tipping point’, which once exceeded allows a fluid-filled fracture to propagate in a `self-sustaining’ manner. I discuss implications this has for hydro-fracturing in industrial operations. I also present two studies combining physical models that define fluid-filled fracture trajectories and Bayesian statistical techniques. In these studies I show that the stress history of the volcanic edifice defines the location of eruptive vents at volcanoes. Retrieval of the ratio between topographic to remote stresses allows for forecasting of probable future vent locations. Finally, I address the mechanics of 3D propagating dykes and sills in volcanic regions. I focus on Sierra Negra volcano in the Gal\'apagos islands, where in 2018, a large sill propagated with an extremely curved trajectory. Using a 3D analysis, I find that shallow horizontal intrusions are highly sensitive to topographic and buoyancy stress gradients, as well as the effects of the free surface.
Transient permeability in porous and fractured sandstones mediated by fluid-rock interactions
(2021)
Understanding the fluid transport properties of subsurface rocks is essential for a large number of geotechnical applications, such as hydrocarbon (oil/gas) exploitation, geological storage (CO2/fluids), and geothermal reservoir utilization. To date, the hydromechanically-dependent fluid flow patterns in porous media and single macroscopic rock fractures have received numerous investigations and are relatively well understood. In contrast, fluid-rock interactions, which may permanently affect rock permeability by reshaping the structure and changing connectivity of pore throats or fracture apertures, need to be further elaborated. This is of significant importance for improving the knowledge of the long-term evolution of rock transport properties and evaluating a reservoir’ sustainability. The thesis focuses on geothermal energy utilization, e.g., seasonal heat storage in aquifers and enhanced geothermal systems, where single fluid flow in porous rocks and rock fracture networks under various pressure and temperature conditions dominates.
In this experimental study, outcrop samples (i.e., Flechtinger sandstone, an illite-bearing Lower Permian rock, and Fontainebleau sandstone, consisting of pure quartz) were used for flow-through experiments under simulated hydrothermal conditions. The themes of the thesis are (1) the investigation of clay particle migration in intact Flechtinger sandstone and the coincident permeability damage upon cyclic temperature and fluid salinity variations; (2) the determination of hydro-mechanical properties of self-propping fractures in Flechtinger and Fontainebleau sandstones with different fracture features and contrasting mechanical properties; and (3) the investigation of the time-dependent fracture aperture evolution of Fontainebleau sandstone induced by fluid-rock interactions (i.e., predominantly pressure solution). Overall, the thesis aims to unravel the mechanisms of the instantaneous reduction (i.e., direct responses to thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) conditions) and progressively-cumulative changes (i.e., time-dependence) of rock transport properties.
Permeability of intact Flechtinger sandstone samples was measured under each constant condition, where temperature (room temperature up to 145 °C) and fluid salinity (NaCl: 0 ~ 2 mol/l) were stepwise changed. Mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP), electron microprobe analysis (EMPA), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were performed to investigate the changes of local porosity, microstructures, and clay element contents before and after the experiments. The results indicate that the permeability of illite-bearing Flechtinger sandstones will be impaired by heating and exposure to low salinity pore fluids. The chemically induced permeability variations prove to be path-dependent concerning the applied succession of fluid salinity changes. The permeability decay induced by a temperature increase and a fluid salinity reduction operates by relatively independent mechanisms, i.e., thermo-mechanical and thermo-chemical effects.
Further, the hydro-mechanical investigations of single macroscopic fractures (aligned, mismatched tensile fractures, and smooth saw-cut fractures) illustrate that a relative fracture wall offset could significantly increase fracture aperture and permeability, but the degree of increase depends on fracture surface roughness. X-ray computed tomography (CT) demonstrates that the contact area ratio after the pressure cycles is inversely correlated to the fracture offset. Moreover, rock mechanical properties, determining the strength of contact asperities, are crucial so that relatively harder rock (i.e., Fontainebleau sandstone) would have a higher self-propping potential for sustainable permeability during pressurization. This implies that self-propping rough fractures with a sufficient displacement are efficient pathways for fluid flow if the rock matrix is mechanically strong.
Finally, two long-term flow-through experiments with Fontainebleau sandstone samples containing single fractures were conducted with an intermittent flow (~140 days) and continuous flow (~120 days), respectively. Permeability and fluid element concentrations were measured throughout the experiments. Permeability reduction occurred at the beginning stage when the stress was applied, while it converged at later stages, even under stressed conditions. Fluid chemistry and microstructure observations demonstrate that pressure solution governs the long-term fracture aperture deformation, with remarkable effects of the pore fluid (Si) concentration and the structure of contact grain boundaries. The retardation and the cessation of rock fracture deformation are mainly induced by the contact stress decrease due to contact area enlargement and a dissolved mass accumulation within the contact boundaries. This work implies that fracture closure under constant (pressure/stress and temperature) conditions is likely a spontaneous process, especially at the beginning stage after pressurization when the contact area is relatively small. In contrast, a contact area growth yields changes of fracture closure behavior due to the evolution of contact boundaries and concurrent changes in their diffusive properties. Fracture aperture and thus permeability will likely be sustainable in the long term if no other processes (e.g., mineral precipitations in the open void space) occur.
One third of the world's population lives in areas where earthquakes causing at least slight damage are frequently expected. Thus, the development and testing of global seismicity models is essential to improving seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-preparedness protocols for effective disaster-risk mitigation. Currently, the availability and quality of geodetic data along plate-boundary regions provides the opportunity to construct global models of plate motion and strain rate, which can be translated into global maps of forecasted seismicity. Moreover, the broad coverage of existing earthquake catalogs facilitates in present-day the calibration and testing of global seismicity models. As a result, modern global seismicity models can integrate two independent factors necessary for physics-based, long-term earthquake forecasting, namely interseismic crustal strain accumulation and sudden lithospheric stress release.
In this dissertation, I present the construction of and testing results for two global ensemble seismicity models, aimed at providing mean rates of shallow (0-70 km) earthquake activity for seismic hazard assessment. These models depend on the Subduction Megathrust Earthquake Rate Forecast (SMERF2), a stationary seismicity approach for subduction zones, based on the conservation of moment principle and the use of regional "geodesy-to-seismicity" parameters, such as corner magnitudes, seismogenic thicknesses and subduction dip angles. Specifically, this interface-earthquake model combines geodetic strain rates with instrumentally-recorded seismicity to compute long-term rates of seismic and geodetic moment. Based on this, I derive analytical solutions for seismic coupling and earthquake activity, which provide this earthquake model with the initial abilities to properly forecast interface seismicity. Then, I integrate SMERF2 interface-seismicity estimates with earthquake computations in non-subduction zones provided by the Seismic Hazard Inferred From Tectonics based on the second iteration of the Global Strain Rate Map seismicity approach to construct the global Tectonic Earthquake Activity Model (TEAM). Thus, TEAM is designed to reduce number, and potentially spatial, earthquake inconsistencies of its predecessor tectonic earthquake model during the 2015-2017 period. Also, I combine this new geodetic-based earthquake approach with a global smoothed-seismicity model to create the World Hybrid Earthquake Estimates based on Likelihood scores (WHEEL) model. This updated hybrid model serves as an alternative earthquake-rate approach to the Global Earthquake Activity Rate model for forecasting long-term rates of shallow seismicity everywhere on Earth.
Global seismicity models provide scientific hypotheses about when and where earthquakes may occur, and how big they might be. Nonetheless, the veracity of these hypotheses can only be either confirmed or rejected after prospective forecast evaluation. Therefore, I finally test the consistency and relative performance of these global seismicity models with independent observations recorded during the 2014-2019 pseudo-prospective evaluation period. As a result, hybrid earthquake models based on both geodesy and seismicity are the most informative seismicity models during the testing time frame, as they obtain higher information scores than their constituent model components. These results support the combination of interseismic strain measurements with earthquake-catalog data for improved seismicity modeling. However, further prospective evaluations are required to more accurately describe the capacities of these global ensemble seismicity models to forecast longer-term earthquake activity.
En el presente trabajo se realizó una investigación multidisciplinaria combinando métodos de geomorfología tectónica con estudios geofisicos y estructurales, focalizados principalmente en la caracterización neotectónica de ambos faldeos de la sierra de La Candelaria y del extremo sur de la cuenca de Metán. La zona de estudio se encuentra ubicada en la región limítrofe entre las provincias de Salta y Tucumán y pertenece a la provincia geológica del Sistema Santa Bárbara.
El principal objetivo consistió en contextualizar las evidencias de actividad tectónica cuaternaria de la región mediante la propuesta de un modelo estructural novedoso, con el propósito de incrementar la información disponible sobre estructuras neotectónicas y su potencial sismogénico. Con este fin, se aplicaron e integraron diversas técnicas tales como la interpretación de líneas sísmicas de reflexión, construcción de secciones estructurales balanceadas, y métodos geofísicos someros, para constatar el comportamiento en profundidad tanto de las estructuras geológicas identificadas en superficie como de las posibles fallas ciegas corticales involucradas.
En primer lugar, se realizó un relevamiento regional del área de estudio empleando imágenes satelitales multiespectrales LANDSAT y SENTINEL 2, que permitieron reconocer diferentes niveles de abanicos aluviales y terrazas fluviales cuaternarios. Mediante la determinación de diferentes indicadores morfométricos en modelos de elevación digital (MED), junto con observaciones de campo, fue posible identificar evidencias de deformación sobre dichos niveles cuaternarios que han sido relacionadas genéticamente con cuatro fallas neotectónicas. Tres de ellas (fallas Arias, El Quemado y Copo Quile) fueron seleccionadas para efectuar estudios de mayor detalle por medio de la aplicación de métodos de geofísica somera (tomografía eléctrica resistiva (ERT) y tomografía sísmica de refracción Sísmica (SRT)), que permitieron corroborar su existencia en profundidad, realizar inferencias geométricas y cinemáticas, y estimar la magnitud de la deformación reciente. Las fallas Arias y El Quemado fueron interpretadas como fallas inversas relacionadas con deslizamiento flexural interstratal, mientras que la falla Copo Quile se interpretó como una falla inversa ciega de bajo ángulo.También se realizó una interpretación conjunta de líneas sísmicas de reflexión y pozos exploratorios pertenecientes a áreas hidrocarburíferas de las cuencas de Choromoro y Metán con el fin de contextualizar las principales estructuras reconocidas en el marco estratigráfico y tectónico regional. Toda la información fue integrada en una sección estructural balanceada mediante técnicas de modelado cinemático. Dicho modelo permite inferir que la deformación cuaternaria reconocida está relacionada al desplazamiento del basamento a lo largo de un corrimiento ciego, responsable del levantamiento de la sierra de La Candelaria y el cerr Cantero. Asimismo, el modelo cinemático permite interpretar la ubicación aproximada de los principales niveles de despegue que controlan el estilo de deformación. El nivel de despegue más somero, que controla la deformación de la cobertura sedimentaria se encuentra a 4 km de profundidad, a 21 km se estima la presencia de otra zona de cizalla subhorizontal dentro del basamento.
Finalmente, a partir de la integración de todos los resultados obtenidos, se evaluó el potencial sismogénico de las fallas en la zona de estudio. Las fallas de primer orden que controlan la deformación en la zona son las responsables de los grandes terremotos. Mientras, las fallas Cuaternarias flexodeslizantes e inversas afectan solamente a la cobertura sedimentaria y serían estructuras de segundo orden que acomodan la deformación y fueron activadas durante el cuaternario con movimientos asísmicos y/o sísmicos de muy baja magnitud.
Estos resultados permiten inferir que el corrimiento La Candelaria constituye una fuente sismogénica potencial de importancia para la región, donde se ubican numerosas poblaciones y obras civiles de envergadura. Por otra parte, la sección estructural balanceada implica la presencia de otras fallas ciegas de distinto orden de magnitud que podrían ser posibles fuentes sismogénicas profundas adicionales, marcando la necesidad de continuar con el desarrollo de este tipo de estudios en esta región tectónicamente activa.