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Welfare states and policies have changed greatly over the past decades, mostly characterized by retrenchments in terms of government spending or in terms of restricted access to certain benefits. In the area of family policies, however, a lot of countries have simultaneously expanded provisions and transfers for families. Bringing together the macro analysis of policy variation and household income changes on the micro-level, the main research question of the dissertation is to what extent economic consequences following separation and divorce in families with children have changed between the 1980s and the 2000s in Germany and the United States. The second research question of the dissertation regards the differences in dissolution outcomes between married and cohabiting parents in Germany.
The dissertation thus aims to link institutional regulations of welfare states with the actual income situation of families. To achieve this, a research design was developed that has never been used for the analysis of the economic consequences of family dissolution. For this, the two longest running panel datasets, German Socio-economic Panel (GSOEP) and the US American Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), have been used. The analytic strategy applied to estimate the effects of family dissolution on household income is a difference-in-difference design combined with coarsened exact matching (CEM).
To begin with, the dissertation confirmed many findings of previous research, for example regarding the gender differences in family dissolution outcomes. Mothers experience clearly higher relative income losses and consequently higher risks of poverty than fathers. This finding is universal, that is it holds for both countries, for all time periods observed, and for all measures of economic outcome that were employed. Another confirmed finding is the higher level of welfare state intervention in Germany compared to the United States.
The dissertation also revealed a number of novel findings. The results show that the expansion of family policies in Germany over time has not been accompanied by substantially decreasing income losses for mothers. Though income losses have slightly decreased over time, they have become more persistent during the years following family dissolution. The impact of the German welfare state has meanwhile been quite stable.
American mothers’ income losses took place on a slightly lower level than those of German mothers. Only during the 1980s their relative losses were clearly lower than those of German mothers. And also American mothers did not recover as much from their income losses during the 2000s than they used to during the 1980s. For them, the 1996 welfare reform brought a considerable decrease in welfare state support. Accordingly, the results for American mothers can certainly be described as a shift from public to private provision.
The general finding of previous studies that fathers do not have to suffer income losses, or if at all rather moderate ones compared to mothers, can be confirmed. Nevertheless, both German and US American fathers face a deterioration of the economic consequences of family dissolution over time. German fathers’ relative income changes are still positive though they have decreased over time. One reason for this decrease is the increasing loss of partner earnings following union dissolution. Also among American fathers, income gains still prevail in the year of family dissolution. Two years later, however, they have been facing income losses already since the 1980s which have furthermore increased considerably over time.
Zooming in on Germany, family dissolution outcomes by marital status show negligible differences between cohabiting and married mothers in disposable income, but considerable differences in losses of income before taxes and transfers. It is the impact of the welfare state that equalizes the differences in income losses between these two groups of mothers. For married mothers, losses are not as high in the year of event but they have difficulties to recover from these losses. Without the income buffering of the welfare state, married mothers would, three years after family dissolution, remain with relative income losses double as high as for cohabiting mothers.
Compared to mothers, differences between married and cohabiting fathers are visible in changes of income before as well as after taxes and transfers. The welfare state does not alter the difference between the two groups of fathers. With regard to both income concepts, cohabiting fathers fare worse than married fathers. Cohabiting fathers suffer moderate income losses of disposable income while married fathers experience moderate income gains. Accounting for support payments is decisive for fathers’ income changes. If these payments are not deducted from disposable income, both married and cohabiting fathers experience gains in disposable income following family dissolution.
Development of geophysical methods to characterize methane hydrate reservoirs on a laboratory scale
(2015)
Gas hydrates are crystalline solids composed of water and gas molecules. They are stable at elevated pressure and low temperatures. Therefore, natural gas hydrate deposits occur at continental margins, permafrost areas, deep lakes, and deep inland seas. During hydrate formation, the water molecules rearrange to form cavities which host gas molecules. Due to the high pressure during hydrate formation, significant amounts of gas can be stored in hydrate structures. The water-gas ratio hereby can reach up to 1:172 at 0°C and atmospheric pressure. Natural gas hydrates predominantly contain methane. Because methane constitutes both a fuel and a greenhouse gas, gas hydrates are a potential energy resource as well as a potential source for greenhouse gas.
This study investigates the physical properties of methane hydrate bearing sediments on a laboratory scale. To do so, an electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) array was developed and mounted in a large reservoir simulator (LARS). For the first time, the ERT array was applied to hydrate saturated sediment samples under controlled temperature, pressure, and hydrate saturation conditions on a laboratory scale. Typically, the pore space of (marine) sediments is filled with electrically well conductive brine. Because hydrates constitute an electrical isolator, significant contrasts regarding the electrical properties of the pore space emerge during hydrate formation and dissociation. Frequent measurements during hydrate formation experiments permit the recordings of the spatial resistivity distribution inside LARS. Those data sets are used as input for a new data processing routine which transfers the spatial resistivity distribution into the spatial distribution of hydrate saturation. Thus, the changes of local hydrate saturation can be monitored with respect to space and time.
This study shows that the developed tomography yielded good data quality and resolved even small amounts of hydrate saturation inside the sediment sample. The conversion algorithm transforming the spatial resistivity distribution into local hydrate saturation values yielded the best results using the Archie-var-phi relation. This approach considers the increasing hydrate phase as part of the sediment frame, metaphorically reducing the sample’s porosity. In addition, the tomographical measurements showed that fast lab based hydrate formation processes cause small crystallites to form which tend to recrystallize.
Furthermore, hydrate dissociation experiments via depressurization were conducted in order to mimic the 2007/2008 Mallik field trial. It was observed that some patterns in gas and water flow could be reproduced, even though some setup related limitations arose.
In two additional long-term experiments the feasibility and performance of CO2-CH4 hydrate exchange reactions were studied in LARS. The tomographical system was used to monitor the spatial hydrate distribution during the hydrate formation stage. During the subsequent CO2 injection, the tomographical array allowed to follow the CO2 migration front inside the sediment sample and helped to identify the CO2 breakthrough.
The continuously increasing demand for rare earth elements in technical components of modern technologies, brings the detection of new deposits closer into the focus of global exploration. One promising method to globally map important deposits might be remote sensing, since it has been used for a wide range of mineral mapping in the past. This doctoral thesis investigates the capacity of hyperspectral remote sensing for the detection of rare earth element deposits. The definition and the realization of a fundamental database on the spectral characteristics of rare earth oxides, rare earth metals and rare earth element bearing materials formed the basis of this thesis. To investigate these characteristics in the field, hyperspectral images of four outcrops in Fen Complex, Norway, were collected in the near-field. A new methodology (named REEMAP) was developed to delineate rare earth element enriched zones. The main steps of REEMAP are: 1) multitemporal weighted averaging of multiple images covering the sample area; 2) sharpening the rare earth related signals using a Gaussian high pass deconvolution technique that is calibrated on the standard deviation of a Gaussian-bell shaped curve that represents by the full width of half maxima of the target absorption band; 3) mathematical modeling of the target absorption band and highlighting of rare earth elements. REEMAP was further adapted to different hyperspectral sensors (EO-1 Hyperion and EnMAP) and a new test site (Lofdal, Namibia). Additionally, the hyperspectral signatures of associated minerals were investigated to serve as proxy for the host rocks. Finally, the capacity and limitations of spectroscopic rare earth element detection approaches in general and of the REEMAP approach specifically were investigated and discussed. One result of this doctoral thesis is that eight rare earth oxides show robust absorption bands and, therefore, can be used for hyperspectral detection methods. Additionally, the spectral signatures of iron oxides, iron-bearing sulfates, calcite and kaolinite can be used to detect metasomatic alteration zones and highlight the ore zone. One of the key results of this doctoral work is the developed REEMAP approach, which can be applied from near-field to space. The REEMAP approach enables rare earth element mapping especially for noisy images. Limiting factors are a low signal to noise ratio, a reduced spectral resolution, overlaying materials, atmospheric absorption residuals and non-optimal illumination conditions. Another key result of this doctoral thesis is the finding that the future hyperspectral EnMAP satellite (with its currently published specifications, June 2015) will be theoretically capable to detect absorption bands of erbium, dysprosium, holmium, neodymium and europium, thulium and samarium. This thesis presents a new methodology REEMAP that enables a spatially wide and rapid hyperspectral detection of rare earth elements in order to meet the demand for fast, extensive and efficient rare earth exploration (from near-field to space).
Continental rifts are excellent regions where the interplay between extension, the build-up of topography, erosion and sedimentation can be evaluated in the context of landscape evolution. Rift basins also constitute important archives that potentially record the evolution and migration of species and the change of sedimentary conditions as a result of climatic change. Finally, rifts have increasingly become targets of resource exploration, such as hydrocarbons or geothermal systems. The study of extensional processes and the factors that further modify the mainly climate-driven surface process regime helps to identify changes in past and present tectonic and geomorphic processes that are ultimately recorded in rift landscapes.
The Cenozoic East African Rift System (EARS) is an exemplary continental rift system and ideal natural laboratory to observe such interactions. The eastern and western branches of the EARS constitute first-order tectonic and topographic features in East Africa, which exert a profound influence on the evolution of topography, the distribution and amount of rainfall, and thus the efficiency of surface processes. The Kenya Rift is an integral part of the eastern branch of the EARS and is characterized by high-relief rift escarpments bounded by normal faults, gently tilted rift shoulders, and volcanic centers along the rift axis.
Considering the Cenozoic tectonic processes in the Kenya Rift, the tectonically controlled cooling history of rift shoulders, the subsidence history of rift basins, and the sedimentation along and across the rift, may help to elucidate the morphotectonic evolution of this extensional province. While tectonic forcing of surface processes may play a minor role in the low-strain rift on centennial to millennial timescales, it may be hypothesized that erosion and sedimentation processes impacted by climate shifts associated with pronounced changes in the availability in moisture may have left important imprints in the landscape.
In this thesis I combined thermochronological, geomorphic field observations, and morphometry of digital elevation models to reconstruct exhumation processes and erosion rates, as well as the effects of climate on the erosion processes in different sectors of the rift. I present three sets of results: (1) new thermochronological data from the northern and central parts of the rift to quantitatively constrain the Tertiary exhumation and thermal evolution of the Kenya Rift. (2) 10Be-derived catchment-wide mean denudation rates from the northern, central and southern rift that characterize erosional processes on millennial to present-day timescales; and (3) paleo-denudation rates in the northern rift to constrain climatically controlled shifts in paleoenvironmental conditions during the early Holocene (African Humid Period).
Taken together, my studies show that time-temperature histories derived from apatite fission track (AFT) analysis, zircon (U-Th)/He dating, and thermal modeling bracket the onset of rifting in the Kenya Rift between 65-50 Ma and about 15 Ma to the present. These two episodes are marked by rapid exhumation and, uplift of the rift shoulders. Between 45 and 15 Ma the margins of the rift experienced very slow erosion/exhumation, with the accommodation of sediments in the rift basin.
In addition, I determined that present-day denudation rates in sparsely vegetated parts of the Kenya Rift amount to 0.13 mm/yr, whereas denudation rates in humid and more densely vegetated sectors of the rift flanks reach a maximum of 0.08 mm/yr, despite steeper hillslopes. I inferred that hillslope gradient and vegetation cover control most of the variation in denudation rates across the Kenya Rift today. Importantly, my results support the notion that vegetation cover plays a fundamental role in determining the voracity of erosion of hillslopes through its stabilizing effects on the land surface.
Finally, in a pilot study I highlighted how paleo-denudation rates in climatic threshold areas changed significantly during times of transient hydrologic conditions and involved a sixfold increase in erosion rates during increased humidity. This assessment is based on cosmogenic nuclide (10Be) dating of quartzitic deltaic sands that were deposited in the northern Kenya Rift during a highstand of Lake Suguta, which was associated with the Holocene African Humid Period. Taken together, my new results document the role of climate variability in erosion processes that impact climatic threshold environments, which may provide a template for potential future impacts of climate-driven changes in surface processes in the course of Global Change.
Business process management (BPM) is a systematic and structured approach to model, analyze, control, and execute business operations also referred to as business processes that get carried out to achieve business goals. Central to BPM are conceptual models. Most prominently, process models describe which tasks are to be executed by whom utilizing which information to reach a business goal. Process models generally cover the perspectives of control flow, resource, data flow, and information systems.
Execution of business processes leads to the work actually being carried out. Automating them increases the efficiency and is usually supported by process engines. This, though, requires the coverage of control flow, resource assignments, and process data. While the first two perspectives are well supported in current process engines, data handling needs to be implemented and maintained manually. However, model-driven data handling promises to ease implementation, reduces the error-proneness through graphical visualization, and reduces development efforts through code generation.
This thesis addresses the modeling, analysis, and execution of data in business processes and presents a novel approach to execute data-annotated process models entirely model-driven. As a first step and formal grounding for the process execution, a conceptual framework for the integration of processes and data is introduced. This framework is complemented by operational semantics through a Petri net mapping extended with data considerations. Model-driven data execution comprises the handling of complex data dependencies, process data, and data exchange in case of communication between multiple process participants. This thesis introduces concepts from the database domain into BPM to enable the distinction of data operations, to specify relations between data objects of the same as well as of different types, to correlate modeled data nodes as well as received messages to the correct run-time process instances, and to generate messages for inter-process communication. The underlying approach, which is not limited to a particular process description language, has been implemented as proof-of-concept.
Automation of data handling in business processes requires data-annotated and correct process models. Targeting the former, algorithms are introduced to extract information about data nodes, their states, and data dependencies from control information and to annotate the process model accordingly. Usually, not all required information can be extracted from control flow information, since some data manipulations are not specified. This requires further refinement of the process model. Given a set of object life cycles specifying allowed data manipulations, automated refinement of the process model towards containment of all data manipulations is enabled. Process models are an abstraction focusing on specific aspects in detail, e.g., the control flow and the data flow views are often represented through activity-centric and object-centric process models. This thesis introduces algorithms for roundtrip transformations enabling the stakeholder to add information to the process model in the view being most appropriate.
Targeting process model correctness, this thesis introduces the notion of weak conformance that checks for consistency between given object life cycles and the process model such that the process model may only utilize data manipulations specified directly or indirectly in an object life cycle. The notion is computed via soundness checking of a hybrid representation integrating control flow and data flow correctness checking. Making a process model executable, identified violations must be corrected. Therefore, an approach is proposed that identifies for each violation multiple, alternative changes to the process model or the object life cycles.
Utilizing the results of this thesis, business processes can be executed entirely model-driven from the data perspective in addition to the control flow and resource perspectives already supported before. Thereby, the model creation is supported by algorithms partly automating the creation process while model consistency is ensured by data correctness checks.
Electron transfer (ET) reactions play a crucial role in the metabolic pathways of all organisms. In biotechnological approaches, the redox properties of the protein cytochrome c (cyt c), which acts as an electron shuttle in the respiratory chain, was utilized to engineer ET chains on electrode surfaces. With the help of the biopolymer DNA, the redox protein assembles into electro active multilayer (ML) systems, providing a biocompatible matrix for the entrapment of proteins.
In this study the characteristics of the cyt c and DNA interaction were defined on the molecular level for the first time and the binding sites of DNA on cyt c were identified. Persistent cyt c/DNA complexes were formed in solution under the assembly conditions of ML architectures, i.e. pH 5.0 and low ionic strength. At pH 7.0, no agglomerates were formed, permitting the characterization of the NMR spectroscopy. Using transverse relaxation-optimized spectroscopy (TROSY)-heteronuclear single quantum coherence (HSQC) experiments, DNAs’ binding sites on the protein were identified. In particular, negatively charged AA residues, which are known interaction sites in cyt c/protein binding were identified as the main contact points of cyt c and DNA.
Moreover, the sophisticated task of arranging proteins on electrode surfaces to create functional ET chains was addressed. Therefore, two different enzyme types, the flavin dependent fructose dehydrogenase (FDH) and the pyrroloquinoline quinone dependent glucose dehydrogenase (PQQ-GDH), were tested as reaction partners of freely diffusing cyt c and cyt c immobilized on electrodes in mono- and MLs. The characterisation of the ET processes was performed by means of electrochemistry and the protein deposition was monitored by microgravimetric measurements. FDH and PQQ-GDH were found to be generally suitable for combination with the cyt c/DNA ML system, since both enzymes interact with cyt c in solution and in the immobilized state. The immobilization of FDH and cyt c was achieved with the enzyme on top of a cyt c monolayer electrode without the help of a polyelectrolyte. Combining FDH with the cyt c/DNA ML system did not succeed, yet. However, the basic conditions for this protein-protein interaction were defined. PQQ-GDH was successfully coupled with the ML system, demonstrating that that the cyt c/DNA ML system provides a suitable interface for enzymes and that the creation of signal chains, based on the idea of co-immobilized proteins is feasible.
Future work may be directed to the investigation of cyt c/DNA interaction under the precise conditions of ML assembly. Therefore, solid state NMR or X-ray crystallography may be required. Based on the results of this study, the combination of FDH with the ML system should be addressed. Moreover, alternative types of enzymes may be tested as catalytic component of the ML assembly, aiming on the development of innovative biosensor applications.
Organic bulk heterojunction (BHJ) solar cells based on polymer:fullerene blends are a promising alternative for a low-cost solar energy conversion. Despite significant improvements of the power conversion efficiency in recent years, the fundamental working principles of these devices are yet not fully understood. In general, the current output of organic solar cells is determined by the generation of free charge carriers upon light absorption and their transport to the electrodes in competition to the loss of charge carriers due to recombination.
The object of this thesis is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic processes and physical parameters determining the performance. A new approach for analyzing the characteristic current-voltage output was developed comprising the experimental determination of the efficiencies of charge carrier generation, recombination and transport, combined with numerical device simulations.
Central issues at the beginning of this work were the influence of an electric field on the free carrier generation process and the contribution of generation, recombination and transport to the current-voltage characteristics. An elegant way to directly measure the field dependence of the free carrier generation is the Time Delayed Collection Field (TDCF) method. In TDCF charge carriers are generated by a short laser pulse and subsequently extracted by a defined rectangular voltage pulse. A new setup was established with an improved time resolution compared to former reports in literature. It was found that charge generation is in general independent of the electric field, in contrast to the current view in literature and opposed to the expectations of the Braun-Onsager model that was commonly used to describe the charge generation process. Even in cases where the charge generation was found to be field-dependend, numerical modelling showed that this field-dependence is in general not capable to account for the voltage dependence of the photocurrent. This highlights the importance of efficient charge extraction in competition to non-geminate recombination, which is the second objective of the thesis.
Therefore, two different techniques were combined to characterize the dynamics and efficiency of non-geminate recombination under device-relevant conditions. One new approach is to perform TDCF measurements with increasing delay between generation and extraction of charges. Thus, TDCF was used for the first time to measure charge carrier generation, recombination and transport with the same experimental setup. This excludes experimental errors due to different measurement and preparation conditions and demonstrates the strength of this technique. An analytic model for the description of TDCF transients was developed and revealed the experimental conditions for which reliable results can be obtained. In particular, it turned out that the $RC$ time of the setup which is mainly given by the sample geometry has a significant influence on the shape of the transients which has to be considered for correct data analysis.
Secondly, a complementary method was applied to characterize charge carrier recombination under steady state bias and illumination, i.e. under realistic operating conditions. This approach relies on the precise determination of the steady state carrier densities established in the active layer. It turned out that current techniques were not sufficient to measure carrier densities with the necessary accuracy. Therefore, a new technique {Bias Assisted Charge Extraction} (BACE) was developed. Here, the charge carriers photogenerated under steady state illumination are extracted by applying a high reverse bias. The accelerated extraction compared to conventional charge extraction minimizes losses through non-geminate recombination and trapping during extraction. By performing numerical device simulations under steady state, conditions were established under which quantitative information on the dynamics can be retrieved from BACE measurements.
The applied experimental techniques allowed to sensitively analyse and quantify geminate and non-geminate recombination losses along with charge transport in organic solar cells. A full analysis was exemplarily demonstrated for two prominent polymer-fullerene blends.
The model system P3HT:PCBM spincast from chloroform (as prepared) exhibits poor power conversion efficiencies (PCE) on the order of 0.5%, mainly caused by low fill factors (FF) and currents. It could be shown that the performance of these devices is limited by the hole transport and large bimolecular recombination (BMR) losses, while geminate recombination losses are insignificant. The low polymer crystallinity and poor interconnection between the polymer and fullerene domains leads to a hole mobility of the order of 10^-7 cm^2/Vs which is several orders of magnitude lower than the electron mobility in these devices. The concomitant build up of space charge hinders extraction of both electrons and holes and promotes bimolecular recombination losses.
Thermal annealing of P3HT:PCBM blends directly after spin coating improves crystallinity and interconnection of the polymer and the fullerene phase and results in comparatively high electron and hole mobilities in the order of 10^-3 cm^2/Vs and 10^-4 cm^2/Vs, respectively. In addition, a coarsening of the domain sizes leads to a reduction of the BMR by one order of magnitude. High charge carrier mobilities and low recombination losses result in comparatively high FF (>65%) and short circuit current (J_SC ≈ 10 mA/cm^2). The overall device performance (PCE ≈ 4%) is only limited by a rather low spectral overlap of absorption and solar emission and a small V_OC, given by the energetics of the P3HT.
From this point of view the combination of the low bandgap polymer PTB7 with PCBM is a promising approach. In BHJ solar cells, this polymer leads to a higher V_OC due to optimized energetics with PCBM. However, the J_SC in these (unoptimized) devices is similar to the J_SC in the optimized blend with P3HT and the FF is rather low (≈ 50%). It turned out that the unoptimized PTB7:PCBM blends suffer from high BMR, a low electron mobility of the order of 10^-5 cm^2/Vs and geminate recombination losses due to field dependent charge carrier generation.
The use of the solvent additive DIO optimizes the blend morphology, mainly by suppressing the formation of very large fullerene domains and by forming a more uniform structure of well interconnected donor and acceptor domains of the order of a few nanometers. Our analysis shows that this results in an increase of the electron mobility by about one order of magnitude (3 x 10^-4 cm^2/Vs), while BMR and geminate recombination losses are significantly reduced. In total these effects improve the J_SC (≈ 17 mA/cm^2) and the FF (> 70%). In 2012 this polymer/fullerene combination resulted in a record PCE for a single junction OSC of 9.2%.
Remarkably, the numerical device simulations revealed that the specific shape of the J-V characteristics depends very sensitively to the variation of not only one, but all dynamic parameters. On the one hand this proves that the experimentally determined parameters, if leading to a good match between simulated and measured J-V curves, are realistic and reliable. On the other hand it also emphasizes the importance to consider all involved dynamic quantities, namely charge carrier generation, geminate and non-geminate recombination as well as electron and hole mobilities. The measurement or investigation of only a subset of these parameters as frequently found in literature will lead to an incomplete picture and possibly to misleading conclusions.
Importantly, the comparison of the numerical device simulation employing the measured parameters and the experimental $J-V$ characteristics allows to identify loss channels and limitations of OSC. For example, it turned out that inefficient extraction of charge carriers is a criticical limitation factor that is often disobeyed. However, efficient and fast transport of charges becomes more and more important with the development of new low bandgap materials with very high internal quantum efficiencies. Likewise, due to moderate charge carrier mobilities, the active layer thicknesses of current high-performance devices are usually limited to around 100 nm. However, larger layer thicknesses would be more favourable with respect to higher current output and robustness of production. Newly designed donor materials should therefore at best show a high tendency to form crystalline structures, as observed in P3HT, combined with the optimized energetics and quantum efficiency of, for example, PTB7.
The sea level rise induced intensification of coastal floods is a serious threat to many regions in proximity to the ocean. Although severe flood events are rare they can entail enormous damage costs, especially when built-up areas are inundated. Fortunately, the mean sea level advances slowly and there is enough time for society to adapt to the changing environment. Most commonly, this is achieved by the construction or reinforcement of flood defence measures such as dykes or sea walls but also land use and disaster management are widely discussed options. Overall, albeit the projection of sea level rise impacts and the elaboration of adequate response strategies is amongst the most prominent topics in climate impact research, global damage estimates are vague and mostly rely on the same assessment models. The thesis at hand contributes to this issue by presenting a distinctive approach which facilitates large scale assessments as well as the comparability of results across regions. Moreover, we aim to improve the general understanding of the interplay between mean sea level rise, adaptation, and coastal flood damage.
Our undertaking is based on two basic building blocks. Firstly, we make use of macroscopic flood-damage functions, i.e. damage functions that provide the total monetary damage within a delineated region (e.g. a city) caused by a flood of certain magnitude. After introducing a systematic methodology for the automatised derivation of such functions, we apply it to a total of 140 European cities and obtain a large set of damage curves utilisable for individual as well as comparative damage assessments. By scrutinising the resulting curves, we are further able to characterise the slope of the damage functions by means of a functional model. The proposed function has in general a sigmoidal shape but exhibits a power law increase for the relevant range of flood levels and we detect an average exponent of 3.4 for the considered cities. This finding represents an essential input for subsequent elaborations on the general interrelations of involved quantities.
The second basic element of this work is extreme value theory which is employed to characterise the occurrence of flood events and in conjunction with a damage function provides the probability distribution of the annual damage in the area under study. The resulting approach is highly flexible as it assumes non-stationarity in all relevant parameters and can be easily applied to arbitrary regions, sea level, and adaptation scenarios. For instance, we find a doubling of expected flood damage in the city of Copenhagen for a rise in mean sea levels of only 11 cm. By following more general considerations, we succeed in deducing surprisingly simple functional expressions to describe the damage behaviour in a given region for varying mean sea levels, changing storm intensities, and supposed protection levels. We are thus able to project future flood damage by means of a reduced set of parameters, namely the aforementioned damage function exponent and the extreme value parameters. Similar examinations are carried out to quantify the aleatory uncertainty involved in these projections. In this regard, a decrease of (relative) uncertainty with rising mean sea levels is detected. Beyond that, we demonstrate how potential adaptation measures can be assessed in terms of a Cost-Benefit Analysis. This is exemplified by the Danish case study of Kalundborg, where amortisation times for a planned investment are estimated for several sea level scenarios and discount rates.
Business Process Management has become an integral part of modern organizations in the private and public sector for improving their operations. In the course of Business Process Management efforts, companies and organizations assemble large process model repositories with many hundreds and thousands of business process models bearing a large amount of information. With the advent of large business process model collections, new challenges arise as structuring and managing a large amount of process models, their maintenance, and their quality assurance.
This is covered by business process architectures that have been introduced for organizing and structuring business process model collections. A variety of business process architecture approaches have been proposed that align business processes along aspects of interest, e. g., goals, functions, or objects. They provide a high level categorization of single processes ignoring their interdependencies, thus hiding valuable information. The production of goods or the delivery of services are often realized by a complex system of interdependent business processes. Hence, taking a holistic view at business processes interdependencies becomes a major necessity to organize, analyze, and assess the impact of their re-/design. Visualizing business processes interdependencies reveals hidden and implicit information from a process model collection.
In this thesis, we present a novel Business Process Architecture approach for representing and analyzing business process interdependencies on an abstract level. We propose a formal definition of our Business Process Architecture approach, design correctness criteria, and develop analysis techniques for assessing their quality. We describe a methodology for applying our Business Process Architecture approach top-down and bottom-up. This includes techniques for Business Process Architecture extraction from, and decomposition to process models while considering consistency issues between business process architecture and process model level. Using our extraction algorithm, we present a novel technique to identify and visualize data interdependencies in Business Process Data Architectures. Our Business Process Architecture approach provides business process experts,managers, and other users of a process model collection with an overview that allows reasoning about a large set of process models,
understanding, and analyzing their interdependencies in a facilitated way. In this regard we evaluated our Business Process Architecture approach in an experiment and provide implementations of selected techniques.