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Electron transfer (ET) reactions play a crucial role in the metabolic pathways of all organisms. In biotechnological approaches, the redox properties of the protein cytochrome c (cyt c), which acts as an electron shuttle in the respiratory chain, was utilized to engineer ET chains on electrode surfaces. With the help of the biopolymer DNA, the redox protein assembles into electro active multilayer (ML) systems, providing a biocompatible matrix for the entrapment of proteins.
In this study the characteristics of the cyt c and DNA interaction were defined on the molecular level for the first time and the binding sites of DNA on cyt c were identified. Persistent cyt c/DNA complexes were formed in solution under the assembly conditions of ML architectures, i.e. pH 5.0 and low ionic strength. At pH 7.0, no agglomerates were formed, permitting the characterization of the NMR spectroscopy. Using transverse relaxation-optimized spectroscopy (TROSY)-heteronuclear single quantum coherence (HSQC) experiments, DNAs’ binding sites on the protein were identified. In particular, negatively charged AA residues, which are known interaction sites in cyt c/protein binding were identified as the main contact points of cyt c and DNA.
Moreover, the sophisticated task of arranging proteins on electrode surfaces to create functional ET chains was addressed. Therefore, two different enzyme types, the flavin dependent fructose dehydrogenase (FDH) and the pyrroloquinoline quinone dependent glucose dehydrogenase (PQQ-GDH), were tested as reaction partners of freely diffusing cyt c and cyt c immobilized on electrodes in mono- and MLs. The characterisation of the ET processes was performed by means of electrochemistry and the protein deposition was monitored by microgravimetric measurements. FDH and PQQ-GDH were found to be generally suitable for combination with the cyt c/DNA ML system, since both enzymes interact with cyt c in solution and in the immobilized state. The immobilization of FDH and cyt c was achieved with the enzyme on top of a cyt c monolayer electrode without the help of a polyelectrolyte. Combining FDH with the cyt c/DNA ML system did not succeed, yet. However, the basic conditions for this protein-protein interaction were defined. PQQ-GDH was successfully coupled with the ML system, demonstrating that that the cyt c/DNA ML system provides a suitable interface for enzymes and that the creation of signal chains, based on the idea of co-immobilized proteins is feasible.
Future work may be directed to the investigation of cyt c/DNA interaction under the precise conditions of ML assembly. Therefore, solid state NMR or X-ray crystallography may be required. Based on the results of this study, the combination of FDH with the ML system should be addressed. Moreover, alternative types of enzymes may be tested as catalytic component of the ML assembly, aiming on the development of innovative biosensor applications.
The sequencing of the human genome in the early 2000s led to an increased interest in cheap and fast sequencing technologies. This interest culminated in the advent of next generation sequencing (NGS). A number of different NGS platforms have arisen since then all promising to do the same thing, i.e. produce large amounts of genetic information for relatively low costs compared to more traditional methods such as Sanger sequencing. The capabilities of NGS meant that researchers were no longer bound to species for which a lot of previous work had already been done (e.g. model organisms and humans) enabling a shift in research towards more novel and diverse species of interest. This capability has greatly benefitted many fields within the biological sciences, one of which being the field of evolutionary biology. Researchers have begun to move away from the study of laboratory model organisms to wild, natural populations and species which has greatly expanded our knowledge of evolution. NGS boasts a number of benefits over more traditional sequencing approaches. The main benefit comes from the capability to generate information for drastically more loci for a fraction of the cost. This is hugely beneficial to the study of wild animals as, even when large numbers of individuals are unobtainable, the amount of data produced still allows for accurate, reliable population and species level results from a small selection of individuals.
The use of NGS to study species for which little to no previous research has been carried out on and the production of novel evolutionary information and reference datasets for the greater scientific community were the focuses of this thesis. Two studies in this thesis focused on producing novel mitochondrial genomes from shotgun sequencing data through iterative mapping, bypassing the need for a close relative to serve as a reference sequence. These mitochondrial genomes were then used to infer species level relationships through phylogenetic analyses. The first of these studies involved reconstructing a complete mitochondrial genome of the bat eared fox (Otocyon megalotis). Phylogenetic analyses of the mitochondrial genome confidently placed the bat eared fox as sister to the clade consisting of the raccoon dog and true foxes within the canidae family. The next study also involved reconstructing a mitochondrial genome but in this case from the extinct Macrauchenia of South America. As this study utilised ancient DNA, it involved a lot of parameter testing, quality controls and strict thresholds to obtain a near complete mitochondrial genome devoid of contamination known to plague ancient DNA studies. Phylogenetic analyses confidently placed Macrauchenia as sister to all living representatives of Perissodactyla with a divergence time of ~66 million years ago. The third and final study of this thesis involved de novo assemblies of both nuclear and mitochondrial genomes from brown and striped hyena and focussed on demographic, genetic diversity and population genomic analyses within the brown hyena. Previous studies of the brown hyena hinted at very low levels of genomic diversity and, perhaps due to this, were unable to find any notable population structure across its range. By incorporating a large number of genetic loci, in the form of complete nuclear genomes, population structure within the brown hyena was uncovered. On top of this, genomic diversity levels were compared to a number of other species. Results showed the brown hyena to have the lowest genomic diversity out of all species included in the study which was perhaps caused by a continuous and ongoing decline in effective population size that started about one million years ago and dramatically accelerated towards the end of the Pleistocene.
The studies within this thesis show the power NGS sequencing has and its utility within evolutionary biology. The most notable capabilities outlined in this thesis involve the study of species for which no reference data is available and in the production of large amounts of data, providing evolutionary answers at the species and population level that data produced using more traditional techniques simply could not.
Calibration of the global hydrological model WGHM with water mass variations from GRACE gravity data
(2010)
Since the start-up of the GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) mission in 2002 time dependent global maps of the Earth's gravity field are available to study geophysical and climatologically-driven mass redistributions on the Earth's surface. In particular, GRACE observations of total water storage changes (TWSV) provide a comprehensive data set for analysing the water cycle on large scales. Therefore they are invaluable for validation and calibration of large-scale hydrological models as the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) which simulates the continental water cycle including its most important components, such as soil, snow, canopy, surface- and groundwater. Hitherto, WGHM exhibits significant differences to GRACE, especially for the seasonal amplitude of TWSV. The need for a validation of hydrological models is further highlighted by large differences between several global models, e.g. WGHM, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and the Land Dynamics model (LaD). For this purpose, GRACE links geodetic and hydrological research aspects. This link demands the development of adequate data integration methods on both sides, forming the main objectives of this work. They include the derivation of accurate GRACE-based water storage changes, the development of strategies to integrate GRACE data into a global hydrological model as well as a calibration method, followed by the re-calibration of WGHM in order to analyse process and model responses. To achieve these aims, GRACE filter tools for the derivation of regionally averaged TWSV were evaluated for specific river basins. Here, a decorrelation filter using GRACE orbits for its design is most efficient among the tested methods. Consistency in data and equal spatial resolution between observed and simulated TWSV were realised by the inclusion of all most important hydrological processes and an equal filtering of both data sets. Appropriate calibration parameters were derived by a WGHM sensitivity analysis against TWSV. Finally, a multi-objective calibration framework was developed to constrain model predictions by both river discharge and GRACE TWSV, realised with a respective evolutionary method, the ε-Non-dominated-Sorting-Genetic-Algorithm-II (ε-NSGAII). Model calibration was done for the 28 largest river basins worldwide and for most of them improved simulation results were achieved with regard to both objectives. From the multi-objective approach more reliable and consistent simulations of TWSV within the continental water cycle were gained and possible model structure errors or mis-modelled processes for specific river basins detected. For tropical regions as such, the seasonal amplitude of water mass variations has increased. The findings lead to an improved understanding of hydrological processes and their representation in the global model. Finally, the robustness of the results is analysed with respect to GRACE and runoff measurement errors. As a main conclusion obtained from the results, not only soil water and snow storage but also groundwater and surface water storage have to be included in the comparison of the modelled and GRACE-derived total water budged data. Regarding model calibration, the regional varying distribution of parameter sensitivity suggests to tune only parameter of important processes within each region. Furthermore, observations of single storage components beside runoff are necessary to improve signal amplitudes and timing of simulated TWSV as well as to evaluate them with higher accuracy. The results of this work highlight the valuable nature of GRACE data when merged into large-scale hydrological modelling and depict methods to improve large-scale hydrological models.
Cosmic rays (CRs) constitute an important component of the interstellar medium (ISM) of galaxies and are thought to play an essential role in governing their evolution. In particular, they are able to impact the dynamics of a galaxy by driving galactic outflows or heating the ISM and thereby affecting the efficiency of star-formation. Hence, in order to understand galaxy formation and evolution, we need to accurately model this non-thermal constituent of the ISM. But except in our local environment within the Milky Way, we do not have the ability to measure CRs directly in other galaxies. However, there are many ways to indirectly observe CRs via the radiation they emit due to their interaction with magnetic and interstellar radiation fields as well as with the ISM.
In this work, I develop a numerical framework to calculate the spectral distribution of CRs in simulations of isolated galaxies where a steady-state between injection and cooling is assumed. Furthermore, I calculate the non-thermal emission processes arising from the modelled CR proton and electron spectra ranging from radio wavelengths up to the very high-energy gamma-ray regime.
I apply this code to a number of high-resolution magneto-hydrodynamical (MHD) simulations of isolated galaxies, where CRs are included. This allows me to study their CR spectra and compare them to observations of the CR proton and electron spectra by the Voyager-1 satellite and the AMS-02 instrument in order to reveal the origin of the measured spectral features.
Furthermore, I provide detailed emission maps, luminosities and spectra of the non-thermal emission from our simulated galaxies that range from dwarfs to Milk-Way analogues to starburst galaxies at different evolutionary stages. I successfully reproduce the observed relations between the radio and gamma-ray luminosities with the far-infrared (FIR) emission of star-forming (SF) galaxies, respectively, where the latter is a good tracer of the star-formation rate. I find that highly SF galaxies are close to the limit where their CR population would lose all of their energy due to the emission of radiation, whereas CRs tend to escape low SF galaxies more quickly. On top of that, I investigate the properties of CR transport that are needed in order to match the observed gamma-ray spectra.
Furthermore, I uncover the underlying processes that enable the FIR-radio correlation (FRC) to be maintained even in starburst galaxies and find that thermal free-free-emission naturally explains the observed radio spectra in SF galaxies like M82 and NGC 253 thus solving the riddle of flat radio spectra that have been proposed to contradict the observed tight FRC.
Lastly, I scrutinise the steady-state modelling of the CR proton component by investigating for the first time the influence of spectrally resolved CR transport in MHD simulations on the hadronic gamma-ray emission of SF galaxies revealing new insights into the observational signatures of CR transport both spectrally and spatially.
This paper introduces a novel measure to assess similarity between event hydrographs. It is based on Cross Recurrence Plots and Recurrence Quantification Analysis which have recently gained attention in a range of disciplines when dealing with complex systems. The method attempts to quantify the event runoff dynamics and is based on the time delay embedded phase space representation of discharge hydrographs. A phase space trajectory is reconstructed from the event hydrograph, and pairs of hydrographs are compared to each other based on the distance of their phase space trajectories. Time delay embedding allows considering the multi-dimensional relationships between different points in time within the event. Hence, the temporal succession of discharge values is taken into account, such as the impact of the initial conditions on the runoff event. We provide an introduction to Cross Recurrence Plots and discuss their parameterization. An application example based on flood time series demonstrates how the method can be used to measure the similarity or dissimilarity of events, and how it can be used to detect events with rare runoff dynamics. It is argued that this methods provides a more comprehensive approach to quantify hydrograph similarity compared to conventional hydrological signatures.
Methane is an important greenhouse gas contributing to global climate change. Natural environments and restored wetlands contribute a large proportion to the global methane budget. Methanogenic archaea (methanogens) and methane oxidizing bacteria (methanotrophs), the biogenic producers and consumers of methane, play key roles in the methane cycle in those environments. A large number of studies revealed the distribution, diversity and composition of these microorganisms in individual habitats. However, uncertainties exist in predicting the response and feedback of methane-cycling microorganisms to future climate changes and related environmental changes due to the limited spatial scales considered so far, and due to a poor recognition of the biogeography of these important microorganisms combining global and local scales.
With the aim of improving our understanding about whether and how methane-cycling microbial communities will be affected by a series of dynamic environmental factors in response to climate change, this PhD thesis investigates the biogeographic patterns of methane-cycling communities, and the driving factors which define these patterns at different spatial scales. At the global scale, a meta-analysis was performed by implementing 94 globally distributed public datasets together with environmental data from various natural environments including soils, lake sediments, estuaries, marine sediments, hydrothermal sediments and mud volcanos. In combination with a global biogeographic map of methanogenic archaea from multiple natural environments, this thesis revealed that biogeographic patterns of methanogens exist. The terrestrial habitats showed higher alpha diversities than marine environments. Methanoculleus and Methanosaeta (Methanothrix) are the most frequently detected taxa in marine habitats, while Methanoregula prevails in terrestrial habitats. Estuary ecosystems, the transition zones between marine and terrestrial/limnic ecosystems, have the highest methanogenic richness but comparably low methane emission rates. At the local scale, this study compared two rewetted fens with known high methane emissions in northeastern Germany, a coastal brackish fen (Hütelmoor) and a freshwater riparian fen (Polder Zarnekow). Consistent with different geochemical conditions and land-use history, the two rewetted fens exhibit dissimilar methanogenic and, especially, methanotrophic community compositions. The methanotrophic community was generally under-represented among the prokaryotic communities and both fens show similarly low ratios of methanotrophic to methanogenic abundances. Since few studies have characterized methane-cycling microorganisms in rewetted fens, this study provides first evidence that the rapid and well re-established methanogenic community in combination with the low and incomplete re-establishment of the methanotrophic community after rewetting contributes to elevated sustained methane fluxes following rewetting.
Finally, this thesis demonstrates that dispersal limitation only slightly regulates the biogeographic distribution patterns of methanogenic microorganisms in natural environments and restored wetlands. Instead, their existence, adaption and establishment are more associated with the selective pressures under different environmental conditions. Salinity, pH and temperature are identified as the most important factors in shaping microbial community structure at different spatial scales (global versus terrestrial environments). Predicted changes in climate, such as increasing temperature, changes in precipitation patterns and increasing frequency of flooding events, are likely to induce a series of environmental alterations, which will either directly or indirectly affect the driving environmental forces of methanogenic communities, leading to changes in their community composition and thus potentially also in methane emission patterns in the future.
The NAC transcription factor (TF) JUNGBRUNNEN1 (JUB1) is an important negative regulator of plant senescence, as well as of gibberellic acid (GA) and brassinosteroid (BR) biosynthesis in Arabidopsis thaliana. Overexpression of JUB1 promotes longevity and enhances tolerance to drought and other abiotic stresses. A similar role of JUB1 has been observed in other plant species, including tomato and banana. Our data show that JUB1 overexpressors (JUB1-OXs) accumulate higher levels of proline than WT plants under control conditions, during the onset of drought stress, and thereafter. We identified that overexpression of JUB1 induces key proline biosynthesis and suppresses key proline degradation genes. Furthermore, bZIP63, the transcription factor involved in proline metabolism, was identified as a novel downstream target of JUB1 by Yeast One-Hybrid (Y1H) analysis and Chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP). However, based on Electrophoretic Mobility Shift Assay (EMSA), direct binding of JUB1 to bZIP63 could not be confirmed. Our data indicate that JUB1-OX plants exhibit reduced stomatal conductance under control conditions. However, selective overexpression of JUB1 in guard cells did not improve drought stress tolerance in Arabidopsis. Moreover, the drought-tolerant phenotype of JUB1 overexpressors does not solely depend on the transcriptional control of the DREB2A gene. Thus, our data suggest that JUB1 confers tolerance to drought stress by regulating multiple components. Until today, none of the previous studies on JUB1´s regulatory network focused on identifying protein-protein interactions. We, therefore, performed a yeast two-hybrid screen (Y2H) which identified several protein interactors of JUB1, two of which are the calcium-binding proteins CaM1 and CaM4. Both proteins interact with JUB1 in the nucleus of Arabidopsis protoplasts. Moreover, JUB1 is expressed with CaM1 and CaM4 under the same conditions. Since CaM1.1 and CaM4.1 encode proteins with identical amino acid sequences, all further experiments were performed with constructs involving the CaM4 coding sequence. Our data show that JUB1 harbors multiple CaM-binding sites, which are localized in both the N-terminal and C-terminal regions of the protein. One of the CaM-binding sites, localized in the DNA-binding domain of JUB1, was identified as a functional CaM-binding site since its mutation strongly reduced the binding of CaM4 to JUB1. Furthermore, JUB1 transactivates expression of the stress-related gene DREB2A in mesophyll cells; this effect is significantly reduced when the calcium-binding protein CaM4 is expressed as well. Overexpression of both genes in Arabidopsis results in early senescence observed through lower chlorophyll content and an enhanced expression of senescence-associated genes (SAGs) when compared with single JUB1 overexpressors. Our data also show that JUB1 and CaM4 proteins interact in senescent leaves, which have increased Ca2+ levels when compared to young leaves. Collectively, our data indicate that JUB1 activity towards its downstream targets is fine-tuned by calcium-binding proteins during leaf senescence.
Early sensitivity to prosodic phrase boundary cues: Behavioral evidence from German-learning infants
(2023)
This dissertation seeks to shed light on the relation of phrasal prosody and developmental speech perception in German-learning infants. Three independent empirical studies explore the role of acoustic correlates of major prosodic boundaries, specifically pitch change, final lengthening, and pause, in infant boundary perception. Moreover, it was examined whether the sensitivity to prosodic phrase boundary markings changes during the first year of life as a result of perceptual attunement to the ambient language (Aslin & Pisoni, 1980).
Using the headturn preference procedure six- and eight-month-old monolingual German-learning infants were tested on their discrimination of two different prosodic groupings of the same list of coordinated names either with or without an internal IPB after the second name, that is, [Moni und Lilli] [und Manu] or [Moni und Lilli und Manu]. The boundary marking was systematically varied with respect to single prosodic cues or specific cue combinations.
Results revealed that six- and eight-month-old German-learning infants successfully detect the internal prosodic boundary when it is signaled by all the three main boundary cues pitch change, final lengthening, and pause. For eight-, but not for six-month-olds, the combination of pitch change and final lengthening, without the occurrence of a pause, is sufficient. This mirrors an adult-like perception by eight-months (Holzgrefe-Lang et al., 2016). Six-month-olds detect a prosodic phrase boundary signaled by final lengthening and pause. The findings suggest a developmental change in German prosodic boundary cue perception from a strong reliance on the pause cue at six months to a differentiated sensitivity to the more subtle cues pitch change and final lengthening at eight months. Neither for six- nor for eight-month-olds the occurrence of pitch change or final lengthening as single cues is sufficient, similar to what has been observed for adult speakers of German (Holzgrefe-Lang et al., 2016).
The present dissertation provides new scientific knowledge on infants’ sensitivity to individual prosodic phrase boundary cues in the first year of life. Methodologically, the studies are pathbreaking since they used exactly the same stimulus materials – phonologically thoroughly controlled lists of names – that have also been used with adults (Holzgrefe-Lang et al., 2016) and with infants in a neurophysiological paradigm (Holzgrefe-Lang, Wellmann, Höhle, & Wartenburger, 2018), allowing for comparisons across age (six/ eight months and adults) and method (behavioral vs. neurophysiological methods). Moreover, materials are suited to be transferred to other languages allowing for a crosslinguistic comparison. Taken together with a study with similar French materials (van Ommen et al., 2020) the observed change in sensitivity in German-learning infants can be interpreted as a language-specific one, from an initial language-general processing mechanism that primarily focuses on the presence of pauses to a language-specific processing that takes into account prosodic properties available in the ambient language. The developmental pattern is discussed as an interplay of acoustic salience, prosodic typology (prosodic regularity) and cue reliability.
Largescale patterns of global land use change are very frequently accompanied by natural habitat loss. To assess the consequences of habitat loss for the remaining natural and semi-natural biotopes, inclusion of cumulative effects at the landscape level is required. The interdisciplinary concept of vulnerability constitutes an appropriate assessment framework at the landscape level, though with few examples of its application for ecological assessments. A comprehensive biotope vulnerability analysis allows identification of areas most affected by landscape change and at the same time with the lowest chances of regeneration.
To this end, a series of ecological indicators were reviewed and developed. They measured spatial attributes of individual biotopes as well as some ecological and conservation characteristics of the respective resident species community. The final vulnerability index combined seven largely independent indicators, which covered exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of biotopes to landscape changes. Results for biotope vulnerability were provided at the regional level. This seems to be an appropriate extent with relevance for spatial planning and designing the distribution of nature reserves.
Using the vulnerability scores calculated for the German federal state of Brandenburg, hot spots and clusters within and across the distinguished types of biotopes were analysed. Biotope types with high dependence on water availability, as well as biotopes of the open landscape containing woody plants (e.g., orchard meadows) are particularly vulnerable to landscape changes. In contrast, the majority of forest biotopes appear to be less vulnerable. Despite the appeal of such generalised statements for some biotope types, the distribution of values suggests that conservation measures for the majority of biotopes should be designed specifically for individual sites. Taken together, size, shape and spatial context of individual biotopes often had a dominant influence on the vulnerability score.
The implementation of biotope vulnerability analysis at the regional level indicated that large biotope datasets can be evaluated with high level of detail using geoinformatics. Drawing on previous work in landscape spatial analysis, the reproducible approach relies on transparent calculations of quantitative and qualitative indicators. At the same time, it provides a synoptic overview and information on the individual biotopes. It is expected to be most useful for nature conservation in combination with an understanding of population, species, and community attributes known for specific sites. The biotope vulnerability analysis facilitates a foresighted assessment of different land uses, aiding in identifying options to slow habitat loss to sustainable levels. It can also be incorporated into planning of restoration measures, guiding efforts to remedy ecological damage. Restoration of any specific site could yield synergies with the conservation objectives of other sites, through enhancing the habitat network or buffering against future landscape change.
Biotope vulnerability analysis could be developed in line with other important ecological concepts, such as resilience and adaptability, further extending the broad thematic scope of the vulnerability concept. Vulnerability can increasingly serve as a common framework for the interdisciplinary research necessary to solve major societal challenges.
Start-up incentives targeted at unemployed individuals have become an important tool of the Active Labor Market Policy (ALMP) to fight unemployment in many countries in recent years. In contrast to traditional ALMP instruments like training measures, wage subsidies, or job creation schemes, which are aimed at reintegrating unemployed individuals into dependent employment, start-up incentives are a fundamentally different approach to ALMP, in that they intend to encourage and help unemployed individuals to exit unemployment by entering self-employment and, thus, by creating their own jobs. In this sense, start-up incentives for unemployed individuals serve not only as employment and social policy to activate job seekers and combat unemployment but also as business policy to promote entrepreneurship. The corresponding empirical literature on this topic so far has been mainly focused on the individual labor market perspective, however. The main part of the thesis at hand examines the new start-up subsidy (“Gründungszuschuss”) in Germany and consists of four empirical analyses that extend the existing evidence on start-up incentives for unemployed individuals from multiple perspectives and in the following directions:
First, it provides the first impact evaluation of the new start-up subsidy in Germany. The results indicate that participation in the new start-up subsidy has significant positive and persistent effects on both reintegration into the labor market as well as the income profiles of participants, in line with previous evidence on comparable German and international programs, which emphasizes the general potential of start-up incentives as part of the broader ALMP toolset. Furthermore, a new innovative sensitivity analysis of the applied propensity score matching approach integrates findings from entrepreneurship and labor market research about the key role of an individual’s personality on start-up decision, business performance, as well as general labor market outcomes, into the impact evaluation of start-up incentives. The sensitivity analysis with regard to the inclusion and exclusion of usually unobserved personality variables reveals that differences in the estimated treatment effects are small in magnitude and mostly insignificant. Consequently, concerns about potential overestimation of treatment effects in previous evaluation studies of similar start-up incentives due to usually unobservable personality variables are less justified, as long as the set of observed control variables is sufficiently informative (Chapter 2).
Second, the thesis expands our knowledge about the longer-term business performance and potential of subsidized businesses arising from the start-up subsidy program. In absolute terms, the analysis shows that a relatively high share of subsidized founders successfully survives in the market with their original businesses in the medium to long run. The subsidy also yields a “double dividend” to a certain extent in terms of additional job creation. Compared to “regular”, i.e., non-subsidized new businesses founded by non-unemployed individuals in the same quarter, however, the economic and growth-related impulses set by participants of the subsidy program are only limited with regard to employment growth, innovation activity, or investment. Further investigations of possible reasons for these differences show that differential business growth paths of subsidized founders in the longer run seem to be mainly limited by higher restrictions to access capital and by unobserved factors, such as less growth-oriented business strategies and intentions, as well as lower (subjective) entrepreneurial persistence. Taken together, the program has only limited potential as a business and entrepreneurship policy intended to induce innovation and economic growth (Chapters 3 and 4).
And third, an empirical analysis on the level of German regional labor markets yields that there is a high regional variation in subsidized start-up activity relative to overall new business formation. The positive correlation between regular start-up intensity and the share among all unemployed individuals who participate in the start-up subsidy program suggests that (nascent) unemployed founders also profit from the beneficial effects of regional entrepreneurship capital. Moreover, the analysis of potential deadweight and displacement effects from an aggregated regional perspective emphasizes that the start-up subsidy for unemployed individuals represents a market intervention into existing markets, which affects incumbents and potentially produces inefficiencies and market distortions. This macro perspective deserves more attention and research in the future (Chapter 5).
Three Essays on EFRAG
(2018)
This cumulative doctoral thesis consists of three papers that deal with the role of one specific European accounting player in the international accounting standard-setting, namely the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG). The first paper examines whether and how EFRAG generally fulfills its role in articulating Europe’s interests toward the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB). The qualitative data from the conducted interviews reveal that EFRAG influences the IASB’s decision making at a very early stage, long before other constituents are officially asked to comment on the IASB’s proposals. The second paper uses quantitative data and investigates the formal participation behavior of European constituents that seek to determine EFRAG’s voice. More precisely, this paper analyzes the nature of the constituents’ participation in EFRAG’s due process in terms of representation (constituent groups and geographical distribution) and the drivers of their participation behavior. EFRAG’s official decision making process is dominated by some specific constituent groups (such as preparers and the accounting profession) and by constituents from some specific countries (e.g. those with effective enforcement regimes). The third paper investigates in a first step who of the European constituents choose which lobbying channel (participation only at IASB, only at EFRAG, or at both institutions) and unveils in a second step possible reasons for their lobbying choices. The paper comprises quantitative and qualitative data. It reveals that English skills, time issues, the size of the constituent, and the country of origin are factors that can explain why the majority participates only in the IASB’s due process.
In the present thesis, the self-assembly of multi thermoresponsive block copolymers in dilute aqueous solution was investigated by a combination of turbidimetry, dynamic light scattering, TEM measurements, NMR as well as fluorescence spectroscopy. The successive conversion of such block copolymers from a hydrophilic into a hydrophobic state includes intermediate amphiphilic states with a variable hydrophilic-to-lipophilic balance. As a result, the self-organization is not following an all-or-none principle but a multistep aggregation in dilute solution was observed. The synthesis of double thermoresponsive diblock copolymers as well as triple thermoresponsive triblock copolymers was realized using twofold-TMS labeled RAFT agents which provide direct information about the average molar mass as well as residual end group functionality from a routine proton NMR spectrum. First a set of double thermosensitive diblock copolymers poly(N-n-propylacrylamide)-b-poly(N-ethylacrylamide) was synthesized which differed only in the relative size of the two blocks. Depending on the relative block lengths, different aggregation pathways were found. Furthermore, the complementary TMS-labeled end groups served as NMR-probes for the self-assembly of these diblock copolymers in dilute solution. Reversible, temperature sensitive peak splitting of the TMS-signals in NMR spectroscopy was indicative for the formation of mixed star-/flower-like micelles in some cases. Moreover, triple thermoresponsive triblock copolymers from poly(N-n-propylacrylamide) (A), poly(methoxydiethylene glycol acrylate) (B) and poly(N-ethylacrylamide) (C) were obtained from sequential RAFT polymerization in all possible block sequences (ABC, BAC, ACB). Their self-organization behavior in dilute aqueous solution was found to be rather complex and dependent on the positioning of the different blocks within the terpolymers. Especially the localization of the low-LCST block (A) had a large influence on the aggregation behavior. Above the first cloud point, aggregates were only observed when the A block was located at one terminus. Once placed in the middle, unimolecular micelles were observed which showed aggregation only above the second phase transition temperature of the B block. Carrier abilities of such triple thermosensitive triblock copolymers tested in fluorescence spectroscopy, using the solvatochromic dye Nile Red, suggested that the hydrophobic probe is less efficiently incorporated by the polymer with the BAC sequence as compared to ABC or ACB polymers above the first phase transition temperature. In addition, due to the problem of increasing loss of end group functionality during the subsequent polymerization steps, a novel concept for the one-step synthesis of multi thermoresponsive block copolymers was developed. This allowed to synthesize double thermoresponsive di- and triblock copolymers in a single polymerization step. The copolymerization of different N-substituted maleimides with a thermosensitive styrene derivative (4-vinylbenzyl methoxytetrakis(oxyethylene) ether) led to alternating copolymers with variable LCST. Consequently, an excess of this styrene-based monomer allowed the synthesis of double thermoresponsive tapered block copolymers in a single polymerization step.
Business Process Management (BPM) emerged as a means to control, analyse, and optimise business operations. Conceptual models are of central importance for BPM. Most prominently, process models define the behaviour that is performed to achieve a business value. In essence, a process model is a mapping of properties of the original business process to the model, created for a purpose. Different modelling purposes, therefore, result in different models of a business process. Against this background, the misalignment of process models often observed in the field of BPM is no surprise. Even if the same business scenario is considered, models created for strategic decision making differ in content significantly from models created for process automation. Despite their differences, process models that refer to the same business process should be consistent, i.e., free of contradictions. Apparently, there is a trade-off between strictness of a notion of consistency and appropriateness of process models serving different purposes. Existing work on consistency analysis builds upon behaviour equivalences and hierarchical refinements between process models. Hence, these approaches are computationally hard and do not offer the flexibility to gradually relax consistency requirements towards a certain setting. This thesis presents a framework for the analysis of behaviour consistency that takes a fundamentally different approach. As a first step, an alignment between corresponding elements of related process models is constructed. Then, this thesis conducts behavioural analysis grounded on a relational abstraction of the behaviour of a process model, its behavioural profile. Different variants of these profiles are proposed, along with efficient computation techniques for a broad class of process models. Using behavioural profiles, consistency of an alignment between process models is judged by different notions and measures. The consistency measures are also adjusted to assess conformance of process logs that capture the observed execution of a process. Further, this thesis proposes various complementary techniques to support consistency management. It elaborates on how to implement consistent change propagation between process models, addresses the exploration of behavioural commonalities and differences, and proposes a model synthesis for behavioural profiles.
Interpretation of and reasoning with conditionals : probabilities, mental models, and causality
(2003)
In everyday conversation "if" is one of the most frequently used conjunctions. This dissertation investigates what meaning an everyday conditional transmits and what inferences it licenses. It is suggested that the nature of the relation between the two propositions in a conditional might play a major role for both questions. Thus, in the experiments reported here conditional statements that describe a causal relationship (e.g., "If you touch that wire, you will receive an electric shock") were compared to arbitrary conditional statements in which there is no meaningful relation between the antecedent and the consequent proposition (e.g., "If Napoleon is dead, then Bristol is in England"). Initially, central assumptions from several approaches to the meaning and the reasoning from causal conditionals will be integrated into a common model. In the model the availability of exceptional situations that have the power to generate exceptions to the rule described in the conditional (e.g., the electricity is turned off), reduces the subjective conditional probability of the consequent, given the antecedent (e.g., the probability of receiving an electric shock when touching the wire). This conditional probability determines people's degree of belief in the conditional, which in turn affects their willingness to accept valid inferences (e.g., "Peter touches the wire, therefore he receives an electric shock") in a reasoning task. Additionally to this indirect pathway, the model contains a direct pathway: Cognitive availability of exceptional situations directly reduces the readiness to accept valid conclusions. The first experimental series tested the integrated model for conditional statements embedded in pseudo-natural cover stories that either established a causal relation between the antecedent and the consequent event (causal conditionals) or did not connect the propositions in a meaningful way (arbitrary conditionals). The model was supported for the causal, but not for the arbitrary conditional statements. Furthermore, participants assigned lower degrees of belief to arbitrary than to causal conditionals. Is this effect due to the presence versus absence of a semantic link between antecedent and consequent in the conditionals? This question was one of the starting points for the second experimental series. Here, the credibility of the conditionals was manipulated by adding explicit frequency information about possible combinations of presence or absence of antecedent and consequent events to the problems (i.e., frequencies of cases of 1. true antecedent with true consequent, 2. true antecedent with false consequent, 3. false antecedent with true consequent, 4. false antecedent with false consequent). This paradigm allows testing different approaches to the meaning of conditionals (Experiment 4) as well as theories of conditional reasoning against each other (Experiment 5). The results of Experiment 4 supported mainly the conditional probability approach to the meaning of conditionals (Edgington, 1995) according to which the degree of belief a listener has in a conditional statement equals the conditional probability that the consequent is true given the antecedent (e.g., the probability of receiving an electric shock when touching the wire). Participants again assigned lower degrees of belief to the arbitrary than the causal conditionals, although the conditional probability of the consequent given the antecedent was held constant within every condition of explicit frequency information. This supports the hypothesis that the mere presence of a causal link enhances the believability of a conditional statement. In Experiment 5 participants solved conditional reasoning tasks from problems that contained explicit frequency information about possible relevant cases. The data favored the probabilistic approach to conditional reasoning advanced by Oaksford, Chater, and Larkin (2000). The two experimental series reported in this dissertation provide strong support for recent probabilistic theories: for the conditional probability approach to the meaning of conditionals by Edgington (1995) and the probabilistic approach to conditional reasoning by Oaksford et al. (2000). In the domain of conditional reasoning, there was additionally support for the modified mental model approaches by Markovits and Barrouillet (2002) and Schroyens and Schaeken (2003). Probabilistic and mental model approaches could be reconciled within a dual-process-model as suggested by Verschueren, Schaeken, and d'Ydewalle (2003).
The aim of this thesis is the design, expression and purification of human cytochrome c mutants and their characterization with regard to electrochemical and structural properties as well as with respect to the reaction with the superoxide radical and the selected proteins sulfite oxidase from human and fungi bilirubin oxidase. All three interaction partners are studied here for the first time with human cyt c and with mutant forms of cyt c. A further aim is the incorporation of the different cyt c forms in two bioelectronic systems: an electrochemical superoxide biosensor with an enhanced sensitivity and a protein multilayer assembly with and without bilirubin oxidase on electrodes. The first part of the thesis is dedicated to the design, expression and characterization of the mutants. A focus is here the electrochemical characterization of the protein in solution and immobilized on electrodes. Further the reaction of these mutants with superoxide was investigated and the possible reaction mechanisms are discussed. In the second part of the work an amperometric superoxide biosensor with selected human cytochrome c mutants was constructed and the performance of the sensor electrodes was studied. The human wild-type and four of the five mutant electrodes could be applied successfully for the detection of the superoxide radical. In the third part of the thesis the reaction of horse heart cyt c, the human wild-type and seven human cyt c mutants with the two proteins sulfite oxidase and bilirubin oxidase was studied electrochemically and the influence of the mutations on the electron transfer reactions was discussed. Finally protein multilayer electrodes with different cyt form including the mutant forms G77K and N70K which exhibit different reaction rates towards BOD were investigated and BOD together with the wild-type and engineered cyt c was embedded in the multilayer assembly. The relevant electron transfer steps and the kinetic behavior of the multilayer electrodes are investigated since the functionality of electroactive multilayer assemblies with incorporated redox proteins is often limited by the electron transfer abilities of the proteins within the multilayer. The formation via the layer-by-layer technique and the kinetic behavior of the mono and bi-protein multilayer system are studied by SPR and cyclic voltammetry. In conclusion this thesis shows that protein engineering is a helpful instrument to study protein reactions as well as electron transfer mechanisms of complex bioelectronic systems (such as bi-protein multilayers). Furthermore, the possibility to design tailored recognition elements for the construction of biosensors with an improved performance is demonstrated.
Energy is at the heart of the climate crisis—but also at the heart of any efforts for climate change mitigation. Energy consumption is namely responsible for approximately three quarters of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, central to any serious plans to stave off a climate catastrophe is a major transformation of the world's energy system, which would move society away from fossil fuels and towards a net-zero energy future. Considering that fossil fuels are also a major source of air pollutant emissions, the energy transition has important implications for air quality as well, and thus also for human and environmental health. Both Europe and Germany have set the goal of becoming GHG neutral by 2050, and moreover have demonstrated their deep commitment to a comprehensive energy transition. Two of the most significant developments in energy policy over the past decade have been the interest in expansion of shale gas and hydrogen, which accordingly have garnered great interest and debate among public, private and political actors.
In this context, sound scientific information can play an important role by informing stakeholder dialogue and future research investments, and by supporting evidence-based decision-making. This thesis examines anticipated environmental impacts from possible, relevant changes in the European energy system, in order to impart valuable insight and fill critical gaps in knowledge. Specifically, it investigates possible future shale gas development in Germany and the United Kingdom (UK), as well as a hypothetical, complete transition to hydrogen mobility in Germany. Moreover, it assesses the impacts on GHG and air pollutant emissions, and on tropospheric ozone (O3) air quality. The analysis is facilitated by constructing emission scenarios and performing air quality modeling via the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). The work of this thesis is presented in three research papers.
The first paper finds that methane (CH4) leakage rates from upstream shale gas development in Germany and the UK would range between 0.35% and 1.36% in a realistic, business-as-usual case, while they would be significantly lower - between 0.08% and 0.15% - in an optimistic, strict regulation and high compliance case, thus demonstrating the value and potential of measures to substantially reduce emissions. Yet, while the optimistic case is technically feasible, it is unlikely that the practices and technologies assumed would be applied and accomplished on a systematic, regular basis, owing to economics and limited monitoring resources. The realistic CH4 leakage rates estimated in this study are comparable to values reported by studies carried out in the US and elsewhere. In contrast, the optimistic rates are similar to official CH4 leakage data from upstream gas production in Germany and in the UK. Considering that there is a lack of systematic, transparent and independent reports supporting the official values, this study further highlights the need for more research efforts in this direction. Compared with national energy sector emissions, this study suggests that shale gas emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) could be significant, though relatively insignificant for other air pollutants. Similar to CH4, measures could be effective for reducing VOCs emissions.
The second paper shows that VOC and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions from a future shale gas industry in Germany and the UK have potentially harmful consequences for European O3 air quality on both the local and regional scale. The results indicate a peak increase in maximum daily 8-hour average O3 (MDA8) ranging from 3.7 µg m-3 to 28.3 µg m-3. Findings suggest that shale gas activities could result in additional exceedances of MDA8 at a substantial percentage of regulatory measurement stations both locally and in neighboring and distant countries, with up to circa one third of stations in the UK and one fifth of stations in Germany experiencing additional exceedances. Moreover, the results reveal that the shale gas impact on the cumulative health-related metric SOMO35 (annual Sum of Ozone Means Over 35 ppb) could be substantial, with a maximum increase of circa 28%. Overall, the findings suggest that shale gas VOC emissions could play a critical role in O3 enhancement, while NOx emissions would contribute to a lesser extent. Thus, the results indicate that stringent regulation of VOC emissions would be important in the event of future European shale gas development to minimize deleterious health outcomes.
The third paper demonstrates that a hypothetical, complete transition of the German vehicle fleet to hydrogen fuel cell technology could contribute substantially to Germany's climate and air quality goals. The results indicate that if the hydrogen were to be produced via renewable-powered water electrolysis (green hydrogen), German carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) emissions would decrease by 179 MtCO2eq annually, though if electrolysis were powered by the current electricity mix, emissions would instead increase by 95 MtCO2eq annually. The findings generally reveal a notable anticipated decrease in German energy emissions of regulated air pollutants. The results suggest that vehicular hydrogen demand is 1000 PJ annually, which would require between 446 TWh and 525 TWh for electrolysis, hydrogen transport and storage. When only the heavy duty vehicle segment (HDVs) is shifted to green hydrogen, the results of this thesis show that vehicular hydrogen demand drops to 371 PJ, while a deep emissions cut is still realized (-57 MtCO2eq), suggesting that HDVs are a low-hanging fruit for contributing to decarbonization of the German road transport sector with hydrogen energy.
The Yukon Coast in Canada is an ice-rich permafrost coast and highly sensitive to changing environmental conditions. Retrogressive thaw slumps are a common thermoerosion feature along this coast, and develop through the thawing of exposed ice-rich permafrost on slopes and removal of accumulating debris. They contribute large amounts of sediment, including organic carbon and nitrogen, to the nearshore zone.
The objective of this study was to 1) identify the climatic and geomorphological drivers of sediment-meltwater release, 2) quantify the amount of released meltwater, sediment, organic carbon and nitrogen, and 3) project the evolution of sediment-meltwater release of retrogressive thaw slumps in a changing future climate.
The analysis is based on data collected over 18 days in July 2013 and 18 days in August 2012. A cut-throat flume was set up in the main sediment-meltwater channel of the largest retrogressive thaw slump on Herschel Island. In addition, two weather stations, one on top of the undisturbed tundra and one on the slump floor, measured incoming solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and precipitation. The discharge volume eroding from the ice-rich permafrost and retreating snowbanks was measured and compared to the meteorological data collected in real time with a resolution of one minute.
The results show that the release of sediment-meltwater from thawing of the ice-rich permafrost headwall is strongly related to snowmelt, incoming solar radiation and air temperature. Snowmelt led to seasonal differences, especially due to the additional contribution of water to the eroding sediment-meltwater from headwall ablation, lead to dilution of the sediment-meltwater composition. Incoming solar radiation and air temperature were the main drivers for diurnal and inter-diurnal fluctuations. In July (2013), the retrogressive thaw slump released about 25 000 m³ of sediment-meltwater, containing 225 kg dissolved organic carbon and 2050 t of sediment, which in turn included 33 t organic carbon, and 4 t total nitrogen. In August (2012), just 15 600 m³ of sediment-meltwater was released, since there was no additional contribution from snowmelt. However, even without the additional dilution, 281 kg dissolved organic carbon was released. The sediment concentration was twice as high as in July, with sediment contents of up to 457 g l-1 and 3058 t of sediment, including 53 t organic carbon and 5 t nitrogen, being released.
In addition, the data from the 36 days of observations from Slump D were upscaled to cover the main summer season of 1 July to 31 August (62 days) and to include all 229 active retrogressive thaw slumps along the Yukon Coast. In total, all retrogressive thaw slumps along the Yukon Coast contribute a minimum of 1.4 Mio. m³ sediment-meltwater each thawing season, containing a minimum of 172 000 t sediment with 3119 t organic carbon, 327 t nitrogen and 17 t dissolved organic carbon. Therefore, in addition to the coastal erosion input to the Beaufort Sea, retrogressive thaw slumps additionally release 3 % of sediment and 8 % of organic carbon into the ocean. Finally, the future evolution of retrogressive thaw slumps under a warming scenario with summer air temperatures increasing by 2-3 °C by 2081-2100, would lead to an increase of 109-114% in release of sediment-meltwater.
It can be concluded that retrogressive thaw slumps are sensitive to climatic conditions and under projected future Arctic warming will contribute larger amounts of thawed permafrost material (including organic carbon and nitrogen) into the environment.
Multi-messenger constraints and pressure from dark matter annihilation into electron-positron pairs
(2013)
Despite striking evidence for the existence of dark matter from astrophysical observations, dark matter has still escaped any direct or indirect detection until today. Therefore a proof for its existence and the revelation of its nature belongs to one of the most intriguing challenges of nowadays cosmology and particle physics. The present work tries to investigate the nature of dark matter through indirect signatures from dark matter annihilation into electron-positron pairs in two different ways, pressure from dark matter annihilation and multi-messenger constraints on the dark matter annihilation cross-section. We focus on dark matter annihilation into electron-positron pairs and adopt a model-independent approach, where all the electrons and positrons are injected with the same initial energy E_0 ~ m_dm*c^2. The propagation of these particles is determined by solving the diffusion-loss equation, considering inverse Compton scattering, synchrotron radiation, Coulomb collisions, bremsstrahlung, and ionization. The first part of this work, focusing on pressure from dark matter annihilation, demonstrates that dark matter annihilation into electron-positron pairs may affect the observed rotation curve by a significant amount. The injection rate of this calculation is constrained by INTEGRAL, Fermi, and H.E.S.S. data. The pressure of the relativistic electron-positron gas is computed from the energy spectrum predicted by the diffusion-loss equation. For values of the gas density and magnetic field that are representative of the Milky Way, it is estimated that the pressure gradients are strong enough to balance gravity in the central parts if E_0 < 1 GeV. The exact value depends somewhat on the astrophysical parameters, and it changes dramatically with the slope of the dark matter density profile. For very steep slopes, as those expected from adiabatic contraction, the rotation curves of spiral galaxies would be affected on kiloparsec scales for most values of E_0. By comparing the predicted rotation curves with observations of dwarf and low surface brightness galaxies, we show that the pressure from dark matter annihilation may improve the agreement between theory and observations in some cases, but it also imposes severe constraints on the model parameters (most notably, the inner slope of the halo density profile, as well as the mass and the annihilation cross-section of dark matter particles into electron-positron pairs). In the second part, upper limits on the dark matter annihilation cross-section into electron-positron pairs are obtained by combining observed data at different wavelengths (from Haslam, WMAP, and Fermi all-sky intensity maps) with recent measurements of the electron and positron spectra in the solar neighbourhood by PAMELA, Fermi, and H.E.S.S.. We consider synchrotron emission in the radio and microwave bands, as well as inverse Compton scattering and final-state radiation at gamma-ray energies. For most values of the model parameters, the tightest constraints are imposed by the local positron spectrum and synchrotron emission from the central regions of the Galaxy. According to our results, the annihilation cross-section should not be higher than the canonical value for a thermal relic if the mass of the dark matter candidate is smaller than a few GeV. In addition, we also derive a stringent upper limit on the inner logarithmic slope α of the density profile of the Milky Way dark matter halo (α < 1 if m_dm < 5 GeV, α < 1.3 if m_dm < 100 GeV and α < 1.5 if m_dm < 2 TeV) assuming a dark matter annihilation cross-section into electron-positron pairs (σv) = 3*10^−26 cm^3 s^−1, as predicted for thermal relics from the big bang.
Robotic telescopes & Doppler imaging : measuring differential rotation on long-period active stars
(2004)
The sun shows a wide variety of magnetic-activity related phenomena. The magnetic field responsible for this is generated by a dynamo process which is believed to operate in the tachocline, which is located at the bottom of the convection zone. This dynamo is driven in part by differential rotation and in part by magnetic turbulences in the convection zone. The surface differential rotation, one key ingredient of dynamo theory, can be measured by tracing sunspot positions.To extend the parameter space for dynamo theories, one can extend these measurements to other stars than the sun. The primary obstacle in this endeavor is the lack of resolved surface images on other stars. This can be overcome by the Doppler imaging technique, which uses the rotation-induced Doppler-broadening of spectral lines to compute the surface distribution of a physical parameter like temperature. To obtain the surface image of a star, high-resolution spectroscopic observations, evenly distributed over one stellar rotation period are needed. This turns out to be quite complicated for long period stars. The upcoming robotic observatory STELLA addresses this problem with a dedicated scheduling routine, which is tailored for Doppler imaging targets. This will make observations for Doppler imaging not only easier, but also more efficient.As a preview of what can be done with STELLA, we present results of a Doppler imaging study of seven stars, all of which show evidence for differential rotation, but unfortunately the errors are of the same order of magnitude as the measurements due to unsatisfactory data quality, something that will not happen on STELLA. Both, cross-correlation analysis and the sheared image technique where used to double check the results if possible. For four of these stars, weak anti-solar differential rotation was found in a sense that the pole rotates faster than the equator, for the other three stars weak differential rotation in the same direction as on the sun was found.Finally, these new measurements along with other published measurements of differential rotation using Doppler imaging, were analyzed for correlations with stellar evolution, binarity, and rotation period. The total sample of stars show a significant correlation with rotation period, but if separated into antisolar and solar type behavior, only the subsample showing anti-solar differential rotation shows this correlation. Additionally, there is evidence for binary stars showing less differential rotation as single stars, as is suggested by theory. All other parameter combinations fail to deliver any results due to the still small sample of stars available.
This thesis aims to quantify the human impact on the natural resource water at the landscape scale. The drivers in the federal state of Brandenburg (Germany), the area under investigation, are land-use changes induced by policy decisions at European and federal state level. The water resources of the federal state are particularly sensitive to changes in land-use due to low precipitation rates in the summer combined with sandy soils and high evapotranspiration rates. Key elements in landscape hydrology are forests because of their unique capacity to transport water from the soil to the atmosphere. Given these circumstances, decisions made at any level of administration that may have effects on the forest sector in the state are critical in relation to the water cycle. It is therefore essential to evaluate any decision that may change forest area and structure in such a sensitive region. Thus, as a first step, it was necessary to develop and implement a model able to simulate possible interactions and feedbacks between forested surfaces and the hydrological cycle at the landscape scale. The result is a model for simulating the hydrological properties of forest stands based on a robust computation of the temporal and spatial LAI (leaf area index) dynamics. The approach allows the simulation of all relevant hydrological processes with a low parameter demand. It includes the interception of precipitation and transpiration of forest stands with and without groundwater in the rooting zone. The model also considers phenology, biomass allocation, as well as mortality and simple management practices. It has been implemented as a module in the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). This model has been tested in two pre-studies to verify the applicability of its hydrological process description for the hydrological conditions typical for the state. The newly implemented forest module has been tested for Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris) and in parts for Common Oak (Quercus robur and Q. petraea) in Brandenburg. For Scots Pine the results demonstrate a good simulation of annual biomass increase and LAI in addition to the satisfactory simulation of litter production. A comparison of the simulated and measured data of the May sprout for Scots pine and leaf unfolding for Oak, as well as the evaluation against daily transpiration measurements for Scots Pine, does support the applicability of the approach. The interception of precipitation has also been simulated and compared with weekly observed data for a Scots Pine stand which displays satisfactory results in both the vegetation periods and annual sums. After the development and testing phase, the model is used to analyse the effects of two scenarios. The first scenario is an increase in forest area on abandoned agricultural land that is triggered by a decrease in European agricultural production support. The second one is a shift in species composition from predominant Scots Pine to Common Oak that is based on decisions of the regional forestry authority to support a more natural species composition. The scenario effects are modelled for the federal state of Brandenburg on a 50m grid utilising spatially explicit land-use patterns. The results, for the first scenario, suggest a negative impact of an increase in forest area (9.4% total state area) on the regional water balance, causing an increase in mean long-term annual evapotranspiration of 3.7% at 100% afforestation when compared to no afforestation. The relatively small annual change conceals a much more pronounced seasonal effect of a mean long-term evapotranspiration increase by 25.1% in the spring causing a pronounced reduction in groundwater recharge and runoff. The reduction causes a lag effect that aggravates the scarcity of water resources in the summer. In contrast, in the second scenario, a change in species composition in existing forests (29.2% total state area) from predominantly Scots Pine to Common Oak decreases the long-term annual mean evapotranspiration by 3.4%, accompanied by a much weaker, but apparent, seasonal pattern. Both scenarios exhibit a high spatial heterogeneity because of the distinct natural conditions in the different regions of the state. Areas with groundwater levels near the surface are particularly sensitive to changes in forest area and regions with relatively high proportion of forest respond strongly to the change in species composition. In both cases this regional response is masked by a smaller linear mean effect for the total state area. Two critical sources of uncertainty in the model results have been investigated. The first one originates from the model calibration parameters estimated in the pre-study for lowland regions, such as the federal state. The combined effect of the parameters, when changed within their physical meaningful limits, unveils an overestimation of the mean water balance by 1.6%. However, the distribution has a wide spread with 14.7% for the 90th percentile and -9.9% for the 10th percentile. The second source of uncertainty emerges from the parameterisation of the forest module. The analysis exhibits a standard deviation of 0.6 % over a ten year period in the mean of the simulated evapotranspiration as a result of variance in the key forest parameters. The analysis suggests that the combined uncertainty in the model results is dominated by the uncertainties of calibration parameters. Therefore, the effect of the first scenario might be underestimated because the calculated increase in evapotranspiration is too small. This may lead to an overestimation of the water balance towards runoff and groundwater recharge. The opposite can be assumed for the second scenario in which the decrease in evapotranspiration might be overestimated.