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We use Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities and kinematic Finite Element models (FE-models) to infer the state of locking between the converging Nazca and South America plates in South-Central Chile (36 degrees S -46 degrees S) and to evaluate its spatial and temporal variability. GPS velocities provide information on earthquake-cycle deformation over the last decade in areas affected by the megathrust events of 1960 (M-w = 9.5) and 2010 (M-w = 8.8). Our data confirm that a change in surface velocity patterns of these two seismotectonic segments can be related to their different stages in the seismic cycle: Accordingly, the northern (2010) segment was in a final stage of interseismic loading whereas the southern (1960) segment is still in a postseismic stage and undergoes a prolonged viscoelastic mantle relaxation. After correcting the signals for mantle relaxation, the residual GPS velocity pattern suggests that the plate interface accumulates slip deficit in a spatially and presumably temporally variable way towards the next great event. Though some similarity exist between locking and 1960 coseismic slip, extrapolating the current, decadal scale slip deficit accumulation towards the similar to 300-yr recurrence times of giant events here does neither yield the slip distribution nor the moment magnitude of the 1960 earthquake. This suggests that either the locking pattern is evolving in time (to reconcile a slip deficit distribution similar to the 1960 earthquake) or that some asperities are not persistent over multiple events. The accumulated moment deficit since 1960 suggests that highly locked patches in the 1960 segment are already capable of producing a M similar to 8 event if triggered to fail by stress transfer from the 2010 event.
Surface uplift at the northern margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau (CAP) is integrally tied to the evolution of the Central Pontides (CP), between the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) and the Black Sea. Our regional morphometric and plate kinematic analyses reveal topographic anomalies, steep channel gradients, and local high relief areas as indicators of ongoing differential surface uplift, which is higher in the western CP compared to the eastern CP and fault-normal components of geodetic slip vectors and the character of tectonic activity of the NAF suggest that stress is accumulated in its broad restraining bend. Seismic reflection and structural field data show evidence for a deep structural detachment horizon responsible for the formation of an actively northward growing orogenic wedge with a positive flower-structure geometry across the CP and the NAF. Taken together, the tectonic, plate kinematic, and geomorphic observations imply that the NAF is the main driving mechanism for wedge tectonics and uplift in the CP. In addition, the NAF Zone defines the boundary between the extensional CAP and the contractional CP. The syntectonic deposits within inverted intermontane basins and deeply incised gorges suggest that the formation of relief, changes in sedimentary dynamics, and > 1 km fluvial incision resulted from accelerated uplift starting in the early Pliocene. The Central Pontides thus provide an example of an accretionary wedge with surface-breaking faults that play a critical role in mountain building processes, sedimentary basin development, and ensuing lateral growth of a continental plateau since the end of the Miocene.