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1. Fussmann et al. (2000) presented a simple mechanistic model to explore predator-prey dynamics of a rotifer species feeding on green algae. Predictions were tested against experimental data from a chemostat system housing the planktonic rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus and the green alga Chlorella vulgaris. 2. The model accurately predicted qualitative behaviour of the system (extinction, equilibria and limit cycles), but poorly described features of population cycles such as the period and predator-prey phase relationship. These discrepancies indicate that the model lacked some biological mechanism(s) crucial to population cycles. 3. Here candidate hypotheses for the 'missing biology' are quantified as modifications to the existing model and are evaluated for consistency with the chemostat data. The hypotheses are: (1) viability of eggs produced by rotifers increases with food concentration, (2) nutritional value of algae increases with nitrogen availability, (3) algal physiological state varies with the accumulation of toxins in the chemostat and (4) algae evolve in response to predation. 4. Only Hypothesis 4 is compatible with empirical observations and thus may provide important insight into how prey evolution affects predator- prey dynamics.
In mathematical models, very simple communities consisting of three or more species frequently display chaotic dynamics which implies that long-term predictions of the population trajectories in time are impossible. Communities in the wild tend to be more complex, but evidence for chaotic dynamics from such communities is scarce. We used supercomputing power to test the hypothesis that chaotic dynamics become less frequent in model ecosystems when their complexity increases. We determined the dynamical stability of a universe of mathematical, nonlinear food web models with varying degrees of organizational complexity. We found that the frequency of unpredictable, chaotic dynamics increases with the number of trophic levels in a food web but decreases with the degree of complexity. Our results suggest that natural food webs possess architectural properties that may intrinsically lower the likelihood of chaotic community dynamics.
Lake ecosystems
(2002)