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In this work, an approach of paleoclimate reconstruction for tropical East Africa is presented. After giving a short summary of modern climate conditions in the tropics and the East African climate peculiarity, the potential of reconstructing climate from paleolake sediments is discussed. As demonstrated, the hydrologic sensitivity of high-elevated closed-basin lakes in the Central Kenya Rift yields valuable guaranties for the establishment of long-term climate records. Temporal fluctuations of the limnological characteristics saved in the lake sediments are used to define variations in the Quaternary climate history. Based on diatom analyses in radiocarbon- and 40Ar/39Ar-dated sediments, a chronology of paleoecologic fluctuations is developed for the Central Kenya Rift -lakes Nakuru, Elmenteita and Naivasha. At least during the penultimate interglacial (around 140 to 60 kyr BP) and during the last interglacial (around 12 to 4 kyr BP), these lakes experienced several transgression-regression cycles on time intervals of about 11,000 years. Additionally, a long-term trend of lake evolution is found suggesting the general succession from deep freshwater lakes towards more saline waters during the last million years. Using ecologic transfer functions and a simple lake-balance model, the observed paleohydrologic fluctuations are linked to potential precipitation-evaporation changes in the lake basins. Though also tectonic influences on the drainage pattern and the effect of varied seepage are investigated, it can be shown that already a small increase in precipitation of about 30±10 % may have affected the hydrologic budget of the intra-rift lakes within the reconstructed range. The findings of this study help to assess the natural climate variability of East Africa. They furthermore reflect the sensitivity of the Central Kenya Rift -lakes to fluctuations of large-scale climate parameters, such as solar radiation and sea-surface temperatures of the Indian Ocean.
Zwischen 1990 und 1994 wurden rund 1000 Liegenschaften, die in der ehemaligen DDR von der Sowjetarmee und der NVA für militärische Übungen genutzt wurden, an Bund und Länder übergeben. Die größten Truppenübungsplätze liegen in Brandenburg und sind heute teilweise in Großschutzgebiete integriert, andere Plätze werden von der Bundeswehr weiterhin aktiv genutzt. Aufgrund des militärischen Betriebs sind die Böden dieser Truppenübungsplätze oft durch Blindgänger, Munitionsreste, Treibstoff- und Schmierölreste bis hin zu chemischen Kampfstoffen belastet. Allerdings existieren auf fast allen Liegenschaften neben diesen durch Munition und militärische Übungen belasteten Bereichen auch naturschutzfachlich wertvolle Flächen; gerade in den Offenlandbereichen kann dies durchaus mit einer Belastung durch Kampfmittel einhergehen. Charakteristisch für diese offenen Flächen, zu denen u.a. Zwergstrauchheiden, Trockenrasen, wüstenähnliche Sandflächen und andere nährstoffarme baumlose Lebensräume gehören, sind Großflächigkeit, Abgeschiedenheit sowie ihre besondere Nutzung und Bewirtschaftung, d.h. die Abwesenheit von land- und forstwirtschaftlichem Betrieb sowie von Siedlungsflächen. Diese Charakteristik war die Grundlage für die Entwicklung einer speziell angepassten Flora und Fauna. Nach Beendigung des Militärbetriebs setzte dann in weiten Teilen eine großflächige Sukzession – die allmähliche Veränderung der Zusammensetzung von Pflanzen- und Tiergesellschaften – ein, die diese offenen Bereiche teilweise bereits in Wald verwandelte und somit verschwinden ließ. Dies wiederum führte zum Verlust der an diese Offenlandflächen gebundenen Tier- und Pflanzenarten. Zur Erhaltung, Gestaltung und Entwicklung dieser offenen Flächen wurden daher von einer interdisziplinären Gruppe von Naturwissenschaftlern verschiedene Methoden und Konzepte auf ihre jeweilige Wirksamkeit untersucht. So konnten schließlich die für die jeweiligen Standortbedingungen geeigneten Maßnahmen eingeleitet werden. Voraussetzung für die Einleitung der Maßnahmen sind zum einen Kenntnisse zu diesen jeweiligen Standortbedingungen, d.h. zum Ist-Zustand, sowie zur Entwicklung der Flächen, d.h. zur Dynamik. So kann eine Abschätzung über die zukünftige Flächenentwicklung getroffen werden, damit ein effizienter Maßnahmeneinsatz stattfinden kann. Geoinformationssysteme (GIS) spielen dabei eine entscheidende Rolle zur digitalen Dokumentation der Biotop- und Nutzungstypen, da sie die Möglichkeit bieten, raum- und zeitbezogene Geometrie- und Sachdaten in großen Mengen zu verarbeiten. Daher wurde ein fachspezifisches GIS für Truppenübungsplätze entwickelt und implementiert. Die Aufgaben umfassten die Konzeption der Datenbank und des Objektmodells sowie fachspezifischer Modellierungs-, Analyse- und Präsentationsfunktionen. Für die Integration von Fachdaten in die GIS-Datenbank wurde zudem ein Metadatenkatalog entwickelt, der in Form eines zusätzlichen GIS-Tools verfügbar ist. Die Basisdaten für das GIS wurden aus Fernerkundungsdaten, topographischen Karten sowie Geländekartierungen gewonnen. Als Instrument für die Abschätzung der zukünftigen Entwicklung wurde das Simulationstool AST4D entwickelt, in dem sowohl die Nutzung der (Raster-)Daten des GIS als Ausgangsdaten für die Simulationen als auch die Nutzung der Simulationsergebnisse im GIS möglich ist. Zudem können die Daten in AST4D raumbezogen visualisiert werden. Das mathematische Konstrukt für das Tool war ein so genannter Zellulärer Automat, mit dem die Flächenentwicklung unter verschiedenen Voraussetzungen simuliert werden kann. So war die Bildung verschiedener Szenarien möglich, d.h. die Simulation der Flächenentwicklung mit verschiedenen (bekannten) Eingangsparametern und den daraus resultierenden unterschiedlichen (unbekannten) Endzuständen. Vor der Durchführung einer der drei in AST4D möglichen Simulationsstufen können angepasst an das jeweilige Untersuchungsgebiet benutzerspezifische Festlegungen getroffen werden.
Modelling and simulation of light propagation in non-aged and aged step-index polymer optical fibres
(2004)
This thesis discusses theoretical and practical aspects of modelling of light propagation in non-aged and aged step-index polymer optical fibres (POFs). Special attention has been paid in describing optical characteristics of non-ideal fibres, scattering and attenuation, and in combining application-oriented and theoretical approaches. The precedence has been given to practical issues, but much effort has been also spent on the theoretical analysis of basic mechanisms governing light propagation in cylindrical waveguides. As a result a practically usable general POF model based on the raytracing approach has been developed and implemented. A systematic numerical optimisation of its parameters has been performed to obtain the best fit between simulated and measured optical characteristics of numerous non-aged and aged fibre samples. The model was verified by providing good agreement, especially for the non-aged fibres. The relations found between aging time and optimal values of model parameters contribute to a better understanding of the aging mechanisms of POFs.
Interaktive System sind dynamische Systeme mit einem zumeist informationellen Kern, die über eine Benutzungsschnittstelle von einem oder mehreren Benutzern bedient werden können. Grundlage für die Benutzung interaktiver Systeme ist das Verständnis von Zweck und Funktionsweise. Allein aus Form und Gestalt der Benutzungsschnittstelle ergibt sich ein solches Verständnis nur in einfachen Fällen. Mit steigender Komplexität ist daher eine verständliche Beschreibung solcher Systeme für deren Entwicklung und Benutzung unverzichtbar. Abhängig von ihrem Zweck variieren die Formen vorgefundener Beschreibungen in der Literatur sehr stark. Ausschlaggebend für die Verständlichkeit einer Beschreibung ist jedoch primär die ihr zugrundeliegende Begriffswelt. Zur Beschreibung allgemeiner komplexer diskreter Systeme - aufbauend auf einer getrennten Betrachtung von Aufbau-, Ablauf- und Wertestrukturen - existiert eine bewährte Begriffswelt. Eine Spezialisierung dieser Begriffs- und Vorstellungswelt, die den unterschiedlichen Betrachtungsebenen interaktiver Systeme gerecht wird und die als Grundlage beliebiger Beschreibungsansätze interaktiver Systeme dienen kann, gibt es bisher nicht. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Bereitstellung einer solchen Begriffswelt zur effizienten Kommunikation der Strukturen interaktiver Systeme. Dadurch soll die Grundlage für eine sinnvolle Ergänzung bestehender Beschreibungs- und Entwicklungsansätze geschaffen werden. Prinzipien der Gestaltung von Benutzungsschnittstellen, Usability- oder Ergonomiebetrachtungen stehen nicht im Mittelpunkt der Arbeit. Ausgehend von der informationellen Komponente einer Benutzungsschnittstelle werden drei Modellebenen abgegrenzt, die bei der Betrachtung eines interaktiven Systems zu unterscheiden sind. Jede Modellebene ist durch eine typische Begriffswelt gekennzeichnet, die ihren Ursprung in einer aufbauverwurzelten Vorstellung hat. Der durchgängige Bezug auf eine Systemvorstellung unterscheidet diesen Ansatz von dem bereits bekannten Konzept der Abgrenzung unterschiedlicher Ebenen verschiedenartiger Entwurfsentscheidungen. Die Fundamental Modeling Concepts (FMC) bilden dabei die Grundlage für die Findung und die Darstellung von Systemstrukturen. Anhand bestehender Systembeschreibungen wird gezeigt, wie die vorgestellte Begriffswelt zur Modellfindung genutzt werden kann. Dazu wird eine repräsentative Auswahl vorgefundener Systembeschreibungen aus der einschlägigen Literatur daraufhin untersucht, in welchem Umfang durch sie die Vorstellungswelt dynamischer Systeme zum Ausdruck kommt. Defizite in der ursprünglichen Darstellung werden identifiziert. Anhand von Alternativmodellen zu den betrachteten Systemen wird der Nutzen der vorgestellten Begriffswelt und Darstellungsweise demonstriert.
Chemical transformations and hydraulic processes in soil and groundwater often lead to an apparent retention of nitrate in lowland catchments. Models are needed to evaluate the interaction of these processes in space and time. The objectives of this study are i) to develop a specific modelling approach by combining selected modelling tools simulating N-transport and turnover in soils and groundwater of lowland catchments, ii) to study interactions between catchment properties and nitrogen transport. Special attention was paid to potential N-loads to surface waters. The modelling approach combines various submodels for water flow and solute transport in soil and groundwater: The soil-water- and nitrogen-model mRISK-N, the groundwater flow model MODFLOW and the solute transport model RT3D. In order to investigate interactions of N-transport and catchment characteristics, the distribution and availability of reaction partners have to be taken into account. Therefore, a special reaction-module is developed, which simulates various chemical processes in groundwater, such as the degradation of organic matter by oxygen, nitrate, sulphate or pyrite oxidation by oxygen and nitrate. The model approach is applied to different simulation, focussing on specific submodels. All simulation studies are based on field data from the Schaugraben catchment, a pleistocene catchment of approximately 25 km², close to Osterburg(Altmark) in the North of Saxony-Anhalt. The following modelling studies have been carried out: i) evaluation of the soil-water- and nitrogen-model based on lysimeter data, ii) modelling of a field scale tracer experiment on nitrate transport and turnover in the groundwater as a first application of the reaction module, iii) evaluation of interactions between hydraulic and chemical aquifer properties in a two-dimensional groundwater transect, iv) modelling of distributed groundwater recharge and soil nitrogen leaching in the study area, to be used as input data for subsequent groundwater simulations, v) study of groundwater nitrate distribution and nitrate breakthrough to the surface water system in the Schaugraben catchment area and a subcatchment, using three-dimensional modelling of reactive groundwater transport. The various model applications prove the model to be capable of simulating interactions between transport, turnover and hydraulic and chemical catchment properties. The distribution of nitrate in the sediment and the resulting loads to surface waters are strongly affected by the amount of reactive substances and by the residence time within the aquifer. In the Schaugraben catchment simulations, it is found that a period of 70 years is needed to raise the average seepage concentrations of nitrate to a level corresponding to the given input situation, if no reactions are considered. Under reactive transport conditions, nitrate concentrations are reduced effectively. Simulation results show that groundwater exfiltration does not contribute considerably to the nitrate pollution of surface waters, as most nitrate entering soils and groundwater is lost by denitrification. Additional sources, such as direct inputs or tile drains have to be taken into account to explain surface water loads. The prognostic value of the models for the study site is limited by uncertainties of input data and estimation of model parameters. Nevertheless, the modelling approach is a useful aid for the identification of source and sink areas of nitrate pollution as well as the investigation of system response to management measures or landuse changes with scenario simulations. The modelling approach assists in the interpretation of observed data, as it allows to integrate local observations into a spatial and temporal framework.
At present, carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems slows the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and thereby reduces the impact of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions on the climate system. Changes in climate and land use affect terrestrial biosphere structure and functioning at present, and will likely impact on the terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades - potentially providing a positive feedback to the climate system due to soil carbon releases under a warmer climate. Quantifying changes, and the associated uncertainties, in regional terrestrial carbon budgets resulting from these effects is relevant for the scientific understanding of the Earth system and for long-term climate mitigation strategies. A model describing the relevant processes that govern the terrestrial carbon cycle is a necessary tool to project regional carbon budgets into the future. This study (1) provides an extensive evaluation of the parameter-based uncertainty in model results of a leading terrestrial biosphere model, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM), against a range of observations and under climate change, thereby complementing existing studies on other aspects of model uncertainty; (2) evaluates different hypotheses to explain the age-related decline in forest growth, both from theoretical and experimental evidence, and introduces the most promising hypothesis into the model; (3) demonstrates how forest statistics can be successfully integrated with process-based modelling to provide long-term constraints on regional-scale forest carbon budget estimates for a European forest case-study; and (4) elucidates the combined effects of land-use and climate changes on the present-day and future terrestrial carbon balance over Europe for four illustrative scenarios - implemented by four general circulation models - using a comprehensive description of different land-use types within the framework of LPJ-DGVM. This study presents a way to assess and reduce uncertainty in process-based terrestrial carbon estimates on a regional scale. The results of this study demonstrate that simulated present-day land-atmosphere carbon fluxes are relatively well constrained, despite considerable uncertainty in modelled net primary production. Process-based terrestrial modelling and forest statistics are successfully combined to improve model-based estimates of vegetation carbon stocks and their change over time. Application of the advanced model for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with stand age compare favourably with forest inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Driven by historic changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area and wood demand between 1948 and 2000, the model predicts European-scale, present-day age structure of forests, ratio of biomass removals to increment, and vegetation carbon sequestration rates that are consistent with inventory-based estimates. Alternative scenarios of climate and land-use change in the 21<sup>st century suggest carbon sequestration in the European terrestrial biosphere during the coming decades will likely be on magnitudes relevant to climate mitigation strategies. However, the uptake rates are small in comparison to the European emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and will likely decline towards the end of the century. Uncertainty in climate change projections is a key driver for uncertainty in simulated land-atmosphere carbon fluxes and needs to be accounted for in mitigation studies of the terrestrial biosphere.
Unter atmosphärischen Zirkulationsregimen versteht man bevorzugte quasi-stationäre Zustände der atmosphärischen Zirkulation auf der planetaren Skala, die für eine bis mehrere Wochen persistieren können. Klimaänderungen, ob natürlich entstanden oder anthropogen verursacht, äußern sich in erster Linie durch Änderungen der Auftrittswahrscheinlichkeiten der natürlichen Regime. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurden dynamische Mechanismen des Regimeverhaltens und der dekadischen Klimavariabilität der Atmosphäre bei Abwesenheit zeitlich veränderlicher externer Einflussfaktoren untersucht. Das Hauptwerkzeug dafür war ein quasi-geostrophisches Dreischichtenmodell der winterlichen atmosphärischen Zirkulation auf der Nordhemisphäre, das eine spektrale T21-Auflösung, einen orographischen und einen zeitlich konstanten thermischen Antrieb mit nicht-zonalen Anteilen besitzt. Ein solches Modell vermag großskalige atmosphärische Strömungsvorgänge außerhalb der Tropen mit einiger Genauigkeit zu simulieren. Nicht berücksichtigt werden Feuchteprozesse, die Wechselwirkung der Atmosphäre mit anderen Teilen des Klimasystems sowie anthropogene Einflüsse. Für das Dreischichtenmodell wurde ein automatisiertes, iteratives Verfahren zur Anpassung des thermischen Modellantriebs neu entwickelt. Jede Iteration des Verfahrens besteht aus einer Testintegration des Modells, ihrer Auswertung, dem Vergleich der Ergebnisse mit den NCEP-NCAR-Reanalysedaten aus den Wintermonaten Dezember, Januar und Februar sowie einer auf diesem Vergleich basierenden Antriebskorrektur. Nach Konvergenz des Verfahrens stimmt das Modell sowohl bezüglich des zonal gemittelten Klimazustandes als auch bezüglich der zeitgemittelten nicht-zonalen außertropischen diabatischen Erwärmung nahezu perfekt mit den wintergemittelten Reanalysedaten überein. In einer 1000-jährigen Simulation wurden die beobachtete mittlere Zirkulation im Winter sowie ihre Variabilität realitätsnah reproduziert, insbesondere die Arktische Oszillation (AO) und ihre vertikale Ausdehnung. Der AO-Index des Modells weist deutliche dekadische Schwankungen auf, die allein durch die interne Modelldynamik bedingt sind. Darüber hinaus zeigt das Modell ein Regimeverhalten, das gut mit den Beobachtungsdaten übereintimmt. Es besitzt ein Regime, das in etwa der negativen Phase der Nordatlantischen Oszillation (NAO) entspricht und eines, das der positiven Phase der AO ähnelt. Eine weit verbreitete Hypothese ist die näherungsweise Übereinstimmung zwischen Regimen und stationären Lösungen der Bewegungsgleichungen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde diese Hypothese für das Dreischichtenmodell überprüft, mit negativem Resultat. Es wurden mittels eines Funktionalminimierungsverfahrens sechs verschiedene stationäre Zustände gefunden. Diese sind allesamt durch eine äußerst unrealistische Zirkulation gekennzeichnet und sind daher weit vom Modellattraktor entfernt. Fünf der sechs Zustände zeichnen sich durch einen extrem starken subtropischen Jet in der mittleren und obereren Modellschicht aus. Da die Ursache des Regimeverhaltens des Dreischichtenmodells nach wie vor unklar war, wurde auf ein einfacheres Modell, nämlich ein barotropes Modell mit T21-Auflösung zurückgegriffen. Für die Anpassung des Oberflächenantriebs wurde eine modifizierte Form der iterativen Prozedur verwendet. Die zeitgemittelte Zirkulation des barotropen Modells stimmt sehr gut mit der zeitlich und vertikal gemittelten Zirkulation des Dreischichtenmodells überein. Das dominierende räumliche Muster der Variabilität besitzt eine AO-ähnliche Struktur. Zudem besitzt das barotrope Modell zwei Regime, die näherungsweise der positiven und negativen Phase der AO entsprechen und somit auch den Regimen des Dreischichtenmodells ähneln. Im Verlauf der Justierung des Oberflächenantriebs konnte beobachtet werden, dass die zwei Regime des barotropen Modells durch die Vereinigung zweier koexistierender Attraktoren entstanden. Der wahrscheinliche Mechanismus der Attraktorvereinigung ist eine Randkrise eines der beiden Attraktoren, gefolgt von einer explosiven Bifurkation des anderen Attraktors. Es wird die Hypothese aufgestellt, dass der beim barotropen Modell vorgefundene Mechanismus der Regimeentstehung für atmosphärische Zirkulationsmodelle mit realitätsnahem Regimeverhalten Allgemeingültigkeit besitzt. Gestützt wird die Hypothese durch vier Experimente mit dem Dreischichtenmodell, bei denen jeweils der Parameter der Bodenreibung verringert und die Antriebsanpassung wiederholt wurde. Bei diesen Experimenten erhöhte sich die Persistenz und die Separiertheit der Regime bei abnehmender Reibung drastisch und damit auch der Anteil dekadischer Zeitskalen an der Variabilität. Die Zunahme der Persistenz der Regime ist charakteristisch für die Annäherung an eine inverse innere Krise, deren Existenz aber nicht nachgewiesen werden konnte.
The protection of species is one major focus in conservation biology. The basis for any management concept is the knowledge of the species autecology. In my thesis, I studied the life-history traits and population dynamics of the endangered Lesser Spotted Woodpecker (Picoides minor) in Central Europe. Here, I combine a range of approaches, from empirical investigations of a Lesser Spotted Woodpecker population in the Taunus low mountain range in Germany, the analysis of empirical data and the development of an individual-based stochastic model simulating the population dynamics. In the field studies I collected basic demographic data of reproductive success and mortality. Moreover, breeding biology and behaviour were investigated in detail. My results showed a significant decrease of the reproductive success with later timing of breeding, caused by deterioration in food supply. Moreover, mate fidelity was of benefit, since pairs composed of individuals that bred together the previous year started earlier with egg laying and obtained a higher reproductive success. Both sexes were involved in parental care, but the care was only shared equally during incubation and the early nestling stage. In the late nestling stage, parental care strategies differed between sexes: Females considerably decreased feeding rate with number of nestlings and even completely deserted small broods. Males fed their nestlings irrespective of brood size and compensated for the females absence. The organisation of parental care in the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker is discussed to provide the possibility for females to mate with two males with separate nests and indeed, polyandry was confirmed. To investigate the influence of the observed flexibility in the social mating system on the population persistence, a stochastic individual-based model simulating the population dynamics of the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker was developed, based on empirical results. However, pre-breeding survival rates could not be obtained empirically and I present in this thesis a pattern-oriented modelling approach to estimate pre-breeding survival rates by comparing simulation results with empirical pattern of population structure and reproductive success on population level. Here, I estimated the pre-breeding survival for two Lesser Spotted Woodpecker populations on different latitudes to test the reliability of the results. Finally, I used the same simulation model to investigate the effect of flexibility in the mating system on the persistence of the population. With increasing rate of polyandry in the population, the persistence increased and even low rates of polyandry had a strong influence. Even when presuming only a low polyandry rate and costs of polyandry in terms of higher mortality and lower reproductive success for the secondary male, the positive effect of polyandry on the persistence of the population was still strong. This thesis greatly helped to increase the knowledge of the autecology of an endangered woodpecker species. Beyond the relevance for the species, I could demonstrate here that in general flexibility in mating systems are buffer mechanisms and reduce the impact of environmental and demographic noise.
Durch die anthropogene Nutzung sind viele Auen in Mitteleuropa verändert worden, wobei insbesondere die Retentionsflächen stark verringert wurden. Während Auen seit längerem im Fokus der wissenschaftlichen Bearbeitung stehen, gibt es bisher große Wissensdefizite in der Frage der Auenreaktivierungen. Zum einen sind derartige Projekte bisher kaum verwirklicht und zum anderen ist ein langfristiges Monitoring notwendig, um die Anpassung von Biozönosen an die veränderten Standortbedingungen beobachten zu können. Um die Folgen derartiger Eingriffe zu analysieren, bieten sich computergestützte Modellierungen der Landschaftsentwicklung an, wie sie in der vorliegenden Arbeit verwirklicht wurden. Ziel der Arbeit war, mit Hilfe eines Geografischen Informationssystems (GIS) das Entwicklungspotenzial der Landschaft bei verschiedenen Rückdeichungsvarianten auf der Ebene der Biotoptypen darzustellen. Dabei ging es nicht um die Erstellung eines allgemein gültigen Auenmodells sondern um die Erarbeitung eines Modells für einen konkreten Anwendungsfall. Der erarbeitete Ansatz sollte zudem für die landschaftsplanerische Praxis geeignet sein. Als Beispielgebiete wurden Flächen an der Mittleren Elbe bei Rogätz und Sandau, beide im nördlichen Teil von Sachsen-Anhalt, ausgewählt. Die vorliegende Arbeit gliedert sich in zwei Teile. Im ersten Teil werden Erhebungen und Auswertungen als Grundlage der Modellentwicklung dargestellt. Dazu wurden die Biotoptypen der Beispielgebiete flächendeckend erhoben und mit punktuellen Vegetationserhebungen ergänzt. Aus dem Forschungsprojekt "Rückgewinnung von Retentionsflächen und Altauenreaktivierung an der Mittleren Elbe in Sachsen-Anhalt" des Bundesministeriums für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) standen standortökologische Daten der Hydrologie und Bodenkunde zur Verfügung. Ziel der Auswertung war, Schlüsselfaktoren für Hydrologie und Bodenbedingungen innerhalb der rezenten Aue zu identifizieren, die zur Ausprägung bestimmter Biotoptypen führen. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wurde ein Modell für Biotoptypenpotenziale auf den geplanten Rück–deichungsflächen entwickelt. Das Modell bearbeitet die Datenbank der verwendeten GIS-Dateien, die auf Daten zum Bestand beruht und um solche der Prognose der Standortökologie (Hydrologie und Boden) im Rückdeichungsfalle aus dem BMBF-Projekt erweitert wurde. Weitere Voraussetzung für die Modellierung war die Erarbeitung von Leitbildern, in denen unterschiedliche Nutzungsszenarios für die Landschaft nach Deichrückverlegung hypothetisch festgelegt wurden. Insbesondere die Nutzungsintensität wurde variiert, von einer Variante intensiver land- und forstwirtschaftlicher Nutzung über sogenannte integrierte Entwicklungsziele aus dem BMBF-Projekt bis hin zu einer Variante der Naturschutznutzung. Zusätzlich wurde eine zukünftige Potentielle Natürliche Vegetation modelliert. Eine Überprüfung des Modell fand für den Raum der rezenten Aue in der intensiven Nutzungsvariante statt, die der gegenwärtigen Nutzung am nächsten kommt. Werden Informationen des Bestandsbiotoptyps als Korrekturgröße in das Modell einbezogen, konnte für viele Biotoptypen eine Trefferquote von über 90 % erreicht werden. Bei flächenmäßig weniger bedeutenden Bio–toptypen lag dieser Wert aufgrund der schmaleren Datenbasis zwischen 20 und 40 %. Als Ergebnis liegt für unterschiedliche Deichvarianten und Leitbilder in den Beispielgebieten die Landschaftsentwicklung als Biotoppotenzial vor. Als eine vereinfachte Regionalisierung der punktuellen Vegetationsdaten wurde im Modell geprüft, inwieweit die modellierten Biotopflächen der Charakteristik der pflanzensoziologischen Aufnahmen aus der rezenten Aue entsprechen. In dem Falle wurde die Pflanzengesellschaft der jeweiligen ökologisch im Rahmen der Untersuchung einheitlichen Flächeneinheit zugeordnet. Anteilig lässt sich damit die Biotopprognosefläche pflanzensoziologisch konkretisieren. Die vorliegende Arbeit gehört zu den bisher wenigen Arbeiten, die sich mit den Folgen von Auenreaktivierung auf die Entwicklung der Landschaft auseinandersetzen. Sie zeigt eine Möglichkeit auf, Prognosemodelle für Biotoptypen und Vegetation anhand begrenzter Felduntersuchungen zu entwerfen. Derartige Modelle können zum Verständnis von Eingriffen in den Naturhaushalt, wie sie die Deichrückverlegungen darstellen, beitragen und eine Folgenabschätzung unterstützen.
Durch die Stilllegung der Kali-Gewinnung und -Produktion zwischen 1990 und 1993 sowie die begonnene Rekultivierung der Kali-Rückstandshalden haben sich die Salzfrachteintragsbedingungen für die Fließgwewässer im "Südharz-Kalirevier" in Thüringen zum Teil deutlich verändert. Aufgrund erheblich geringerer Salzeinträge in die Vorfluter Wipper und Bode ist es möglich geworden, zu einer ökologisch verträglichen Salzfrachtsteuerung überzugehen. Die Komplexität der zugrunde liegenden Stofftransportprozesse im Einzugsgebiet der Wipper macht es jedoch unumgänglich, den Steuerungsvorgang nicht nur durch reine Bilanzierungsvorgänge auf der betrachteten Steuerstrecke zu erfassen (so wie bisher praktiziert), sondern auch die Abflussdynamik im Fließgewässer und den Wasserhaushalt im Gebiet mit einzubeziehen. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit dienen zum einen einer Vertiefung der Prozessverständnisse und der Interaktion von Wasserhaushalt, Abflussbildung sowie Stofftransport in bergbaubeeinflussten Einzugsgebieten am Beispiel der Unstrut bzw. ihrer relevanten Nebenflüsse. Zum anderen sollen sie zur Analyse und Bewertung eines Bewirtschaftungsplanes für die genannten Fließgewässer herangezogen werden können. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Erstellung eines prognosetauglichen Steuerungsinstrumentes, das für die Bewirtschaftung von Flusseinzugsgebieten unterschiedlicher Größe genutzt und unter den Rahmenbedingungen der bergbaubedingten salinaren Einträge effektiv zur Steuerung der anthropogenen Frachten eingesetzt werden kann. Die Quellen der anthropogen eingeleiteten Salzfracht sind vor allem die Rückstandshalden der stillgelegten Kaliwerke. Durch Niederschläge entstehen salzhaltige Haldenabwässer, die zum Teil ungesteuert über oberflächennahe Ausbreitungsvorgänge direkt in die Vorfluter gelangen, ein anderer Teil wird über die Speichereinrichtungen gefasst und gezielt abgestoßen. Durch Undichtigkeiten des Laugenstapelbeckens in Wipperdorf gelangen ebenfalls ungesteuerte Frachteinträge in die Wipper. Ein weiterer Eintragspfad ist zudem die geogene Belastung. Mit Hilfe detaillierter Angaben zu den oben genannten Eintragspfaden konnten Modellrechnungen im Zeitraum von 1992 bis 2003 durchgeführt werden. Durch die Ausarbeitung eines neuartigen Steuerungskonzeptes für das Laugenstapelbecken Wipperdorf, war es nun möglich, die gefasste Haldenlauge entsprechend der aktuellen Abflusssituation gezielt abstoßen zu können. Neben der modelltechnischen Erfassung der aktuellen hydrologischen Situation und der Vorgabe eines Chlorid-Konzentrationssteuerzieles für den Pegel Hachelbich, mussten dabei weitere Randbedingungen (Beckenkapazität, Beckenfüllstand, Mindestfüllstand, Kapazität des Ableitungskanals, usw.) berücksichtigt werden. Es zeigte sich, dass unter Anwendung des Steuerungskonzeptes die Schwankungsbreite der Chloridkonzentration insgesamt gesehen deutlich verringert werden konnte. Die Überschreitungshäufigkeiten bezüglich eines Grenzwertes von 2 g Chlorid/l am Pegel Hachelbich fielen deutlich, und auch die maximale Dauer einer solchen Periode konnte stark verkürzt werden. Kritische Situationen bei der modelltechnischen Frachtzusteuerung traten nur dann auf, wenn Niedrigwasserverhältnisse durch die Simulationsberechnungen noch unterschätzt wurden. Dies hatte deutliche Überschreitungen der Zielvorgaben für den Pegel Hachelbich zur Folge. Mit Hilfe des Steuerungsalgorithmus konnten desweiteren auch Szenarienberechnungen durchgeführt werden, um die Auswirkungen zukünftig zu erwartender Salzfrachten näher spezifizieren zu können. Dabei konnte festgestellt werden, dass Abdichtungsmaßnahmen der Haldenkörper sich direkt positiv auf die Entwicklung der Konzentration in Hachelbich auswirkten. Durch zusätzlich durchgeführte Langzeitszenarien konnte darüber hinaus nachgewiesen werden, dass langfristig eine Grenzwertfestlegung auf 1,5 g Chlorid/l in Hachelbich möglich ist, und die Stapelkapazitäten dazu ausreichend bemessen sind.
The scope of this study is to investigate the environmental change in the German part of the Elbe river basin, whereby the focus is on two water related problems: having too little water and having water of poor quality. The Elbe region is representative of humid to semi-humid landscapes in central Europe, where water availability during the summer season is the limiting factor for plant growth and crop yields, especially in the loess areas, where the annual precipitation is lower than 500 mm. It is most likely that water quantity problems will accelerate in future, because both the observed and the projected climate trend show an increase in temperature and a decrease in annual precipitation, especially in the summer. Another problem is nutrient pollution of rivers and lakes. In the early 1990s, the Elbe was one of the most heavily polluted rivers in Europe. Even though nutrient emissions from point sources have notably decreased in the basin due to reduction of industrial sources and introduction of new and improved sewage treatment facilities, the diffuse sources of pollution are still not sufficiently controlled. The investigations have been done using the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which has been embedded in a model framework of climate and agro-economic models. A global scenario of climate and agro-economic change has been regionalized to generate transient climate forcing data and land use boundary conditions for the model. The model was used to transform the climate and land use changes into altered evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, crop yields and river discharge, and to investigate the development of water quality in the river basin. Particular emphasis was given to assessing the significance of the impacts on the hydrology, taking into account in the analysis the inherent uncertainty of the regional climate change as well as the uncertainty in the results of the model. The average trend of the regional climate change scenario indicates a decrease in mean annual precipitation up to 2055 of about 1.5 %, but with high uncertainty (covering the range from -15.3 % to +14.8 %), and a less uncertain increase in temperature of approximately 1.4 K. The relatively small change in precipitation in conjunction with the change in temperature leads to severe impacts on groundwater recharge and river flow. Increasing temperature induces longer vegetation periods, and the seasonality of the flow regime changes towards longer low flow spells in summer. As a results the water availability will decrease on average of the scenario simulations by approximately 15 %. The increase in temperatures will improve the growth conditions for temperature limited crops like maize. The uncertainty of the climate trend is particularly high in regions where the change is the highest. The simulation results for the Nuthe subbasin of the Elbe indicate that retention processes in groundwater, wetlands and riparian zones have a high potential to reduce the nitrate concentrations of rivers and lakes in the basin, because they are located at the interface between catchment area and surface water bodies, where they are controlling the diffuse nutrient inputs. The relatively high retention of nitrate in the Nuthe basin is due to the long residence time of water in the subsurface (about 40 years), with good conditions for denitrification, and due to nitrate retention and plant uptake in wetlands and riparian zones. The concluding result of the study is that the natural environment and communities in parts of Central Europe will have considerably lower water resources under scenario conditions. The water quality will improve, but due to the long residence time of water and nutrients in the subsurface, this improvement will be slower in areas where the conditions for nutrient turn-over in the subsurface are poor.
A water quality model for shallow river-lake systems and its application in river basin management
(2007)
This work documents the development and application of a new model for simulating mass transport and turnover in rivers and shallow lakes. The simulation tool called 'TRAM' is intended to complement mesoscale eco-hydrological catchment models in studies on river basin management. TRAM aims at describing the water quality of individual water bodies, using problem- and scale-adequate approaches for representing their hydrological and ecological characteristics. The need for such flexible water quality analysis and prediction tools is expected to further increase during the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) as well as in the context of climate change research. The developed simulation tool consists of a transport and a reaction module with the latter being highly flexible with respect to the description of turnover processes in the aquatic environment. Therefore, simulation approaches of different complexity can easily be tested and model formulations can be chosen in consideration of the problem at hand, knowledge of process functioning, and data availability. Consequently, TRAM is suitable for both heavily simplified engineering applications as well as scientific ecosystem studies involving a large number of state variables, interactions, and boundary conditions. TRAM can easily be linked to catchment models off-line and it requires the use of external hydrodynamic simulation software. Parametrization of the model and visualization of simulation results are facilitated by the use of geographical information systems as well as specific pre- and post-processors. TRAM has been developed within the research project 'Management Options for the Havel River Basin' funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research. The project focused on the analysis of different options for reducing the nutrient load of surface waters. It was intended to support the implementation of the WFD in the lowland catchment of the Havel River located in North-East Germany. Within the above-mentioned study TRAM was applied with two goals in mind. In a first step, the model was used for identifying the magnitude as well as spatial and temporal patterns of nitrogen retention and sediment phosphorus release in a 100~km stretch of the highly eutrophic Lower Havel River. From the system analysis, strongly simplified conceptual approaches for modeling N-retention and P-remobilization in the studied river-lake system were obtained. In a second step, the impact of reduced external nutrient loading on the nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations of the Havel River was simulated (scenario analysis) taking into account internal retention/release. The boundary conditions for the scenario analysis such as runoff and nutrient emissions from river basins were computed by project partners using the catchment models SWIM and ArcEGMO-Urban. Based on the output of TRAM, the considered options of emission control could finally be evaluated using a site-specific assessment scale which is compatible with the requirements of the WFD. Uncertainties in the model predictions were also examined. According to simulation results, the target of the WFD -- with respect to total phosphorus concentrations in the Lower Havel River -- could be achieved in the medium-term, if the full potential for reducing point and non-point emissions was tapped. Furthermore, model results suggest that internal phosphorus loading will ease off noticeably until 2015 due to a declining pool of sedimentary mobile phosphate. Mass balance calculations revealed that the lakes of the Lower Havel River are an important nitrogen sink. This natural retention effect contributes significantly to the efforts aimed at reducing the river's nitrogen load. If a sustainable improvement of the river system's water quality is to be achieved, enhanced measures to further reduce the immissions of both phosphorus and nitrogen are required.
This work presents mathematical and computational approaches to cover various aspects of metabolic network modelling, especially regarding the limited availability of detailed kinetic knowledge on reaction rates. It is shown that precise mathematical formulations of problems are needed i) to find appropriate and, if possible, efficient algorithms to solve them, and ii) to determine the quality of the found approximate solutions. Furthermore, some means are introduced to gain insights on dynamic properties of metabolic networks either directly from the network structure or by additionally incorporating steady-state information. Finally, an approach to identify key reactions in a metabolic networks is introduced, which helps to develop simple yet useful kinetic models. The rise of novel techniques renders genome sequencing increasingly fast and cheap. In the near future, this will allow to analyze biological networks not only for species but also for individuals. Hence, automatic reconstruction of metabolic networks provides itself as a means for evaluating this huge amount of experimental data. A mathematical formulation as an optimization problem is presented, taking into account existing knowledge and experimental data as well as the probabilistic predictions of various bioinformatical methods. The reconstructed networks are optimized for having large connected components of high accuracy, hence avoiding fragmentation into small isolated subnetworks. The usefulness of this formalism is exemplified on the reconstruction of the sucrose biosynthesis pathway in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. The problem is shown to be computationally demanding and therefore necessitates efficient approximation algorithms. The problem of minimal nutrient requirements for genome-scale metabolic networks is analyzed. Given a metabolic network and a set of target metabolites, the inverse scope problem has as it objective determining a minimal set of metabolites that have to be provided in order to produce the target metabolites. These target metabolites might stem from experimental measurements and therefore are known to be produced by the metabolic network under study, or are given as the desired end-products of a biotechological application. The inverse scope problem is shown to be computationally hard to solve. However, I assume that the complexity strongly depends on the number of directed cycles within the metabolic network. This might guide the development of efficient approximation algorithms. Assuming mass-action kinetics, chemical reaction network theory (CRNT) allows for eliciting conclusions about multistability directly from the structure of metabolic networks. Although CRNT is based on mass-action kinetics originally, it is shown how to incorporate further reaction schemes by emulating molecular enzyme mechanisms. CRNT is used to compare several models of the Calvin cycle, which differ in size and level of abstraction. Definite results are obtained for small models, but the available set of theorems and algorithms provided by CRNT can not be applied to larger models due to the computational limitations of the currently available implementations of the provided algorithms. Given the stoichiometry of a metabolic network together with steady-state fluxes and concentrations, structural kinetic modelling allows to analyze the dynamic behavior of the metabolic network, even if the explicit rate equations are not known. In particular, this sampling approach is used to study the stabilizing effects of allosteric regulation in a model of human erythrocytes. Furthermore, the reactions of that model can be ranked according to their impact on stability of the steady state. The most important reactions in that respect are identified as hexokinase, phosphofructokinase and pyruvate kinase, which are known to be highly regulated and almost irreversible. Kinetic modelling approaches using standard rate equations are compared and evaluated against reference models for erythrocytes and hepatocytes. The results from this simplified kinetic models can simulate acceptably the temporal behavior for small changes around a given steady state, but fail to capture important characteristics for larger changes. The aforementioned approach to rank reactions according to their influence on stability is used to identify a small number of key reactions. These reactions are modelled in detail, including knowledge about allosteric regulation, while all other reactions were still described by simplified reaction rates. These so-called hybrid models can capture the characteristics of the reference models significantly better than the simplified models alone. The resulting hybrid models might serve as a good starting point for kinetic modelling of genome-scale metabolic networks, as they provide reasonable results in the absence of experimental data, regarding, for instance, allosteric regulations, for a vast majority of enzymatic reactions.
A huge number of applications require coherent radiation in the visible spectral range. Since diode lasers are very compact and efficient light sources, there exists a great interest to cover these applications with diode laser emission. Despite modern band gap engineering not all wavelengths can be accessed with diode laser radiation. Especially in the visible spectral range between 480 nm and 630 nm no emission from diode lasers is available, yet. Nonlinear frequency conversion of near-infrared radiation is a common way to generate coherent emission in the visible spectral range. However, radiation with extraordinary spatial temporal and spectral quality is required to pump frequency conversion. Broad area (BA) diode lasers are reliable high power light sources in the near-infrared spectral range. They belong to the most efficient coherent light sources with electro-optical efficiencies of more than 70%. Standard BA lasers are not suitable as pump lasers for frequency conversion because of their poor beam quality and spectral properties. For this purpose, tapered lasers and diode lasers with Bragg gratings are utilized. However, these new diode laser structures demand for additional manufacturing and assembling steps that makes their processing challenging and expensive. An alternative to BA diode lasers is the stripe-array architecture. The emitting area of a stripe-array diode laser is comparable to a BA device and the manufacturing of these arrays requires only one additional process step. Such a stripe-array consists of several narrow striped emitters realized with close proximity. Due to the overlap of the fields of neighboring emitters or the presence of leaky waves, a strong coupling between the emitters exists. As a consequence, the emission of such an array is characterized by a so called supermode. However, for the free running stripe-array mode competition between several supermodes occurs because of the lack of wavelength stabilization. This leads to power fluctuations, spectral instabilities and poor beam quality. Thus, it was necessary to study the emission properties of those stripe-arrays to find new concepts to realize an external synchronization of the emitters. The aim was to achieve stable longitudinal and transversal single mode operation with high output powers giving a brightness sufficient for efficient nonlinear frequency conversion. For this purpose a comprehensive analysis of the stripe-array devices was done here. The physical effects that are the origin of the emission characteristics were investigated theoretically and experimentally. In this context numerical models could be verified and extended. A good agreement between simulation and experiment was observed. One way to stabilize a specific supermode of an array is to operate it in an external cavity. Based on mathematical simulations and experimental work, it was possible to design novel external cavities to select a specific supermode and stabilize all emitters of the array at the same wavelength. This resulted in stable emission with 1 W output power, a narrow bandwidth in the range of 2 MHz and a very good beam quality with M²<1.5. This is a new level of brightness and brilliance compared to other BA and stripe-array diode laser systems. The emission from this external cavity diode laser (ECDL) satisfied the requirements for nonlinear frequency conversion. Furthermore, a huge improvement to existing concepts was made. In the next step newly available periodically poled crystals were used for second harmonic generation (SHG) in single pass setups. With the stripe-array ECDL as pump source, more than 140 mW of coherent radiation at 488 nm could be generated with a very high opto-optical conversion efficiency. The generated blue light had very good transversal and longitudinal properties and could be used to generate biphotons by parametric down-conversion. This was feasible because of the improvement made with the infrared stripe-array diode lasers due to the development of new physical concepts.
Water shortage is a serious threat for many societies worldwide. In drylands, water management measures like the construction of reservoirs are affected by eroded sediments transported in the rivers. Thus, the capability of assessing water and sediment fluxes at the river basin scale is of vital importance to support management decisions and policy making. This subject was addressed by the DFG-funded SESAM-project (Sediment Export from large Semi-Arid catchments: Measurements and Modelling). As a part of this project, this thesis focuses on (1) the development and implementation of an erosion module for a meso-scale catchment model, (2) the development of upscaling and generalization methods for the parameterization of such model, (3) the execution of measurements to obtain data required for the modelling and (4) the application of the model to different study areas and its evaluation. The research was carried out in two meso-scale dryland catchments in NE-Spain: Ribera Salada (200 km²) and Isábena (450 km²). Adressing objective 1, WASA-SED, a spatially semi-distributed model for water and sediment transport at the meso-scale was developed. The model simulates runoff and erosion processes at the hillslope scale, transport processes of suspended and bedload fluxes in the river reaches, and retention and remobilisation processes of sediments in reservoirs. This thesis introduces the model concept, presents current model applications and discusses its capabilities and limitations. Modelling at larger scales faces the dilemma of describing relevant processes while maintaining a manageable demand for input data and computation time. WASA-SED addresses this challenge by employing an innovative catena-based upscaling approach: the landscape is represented by characteristic toposequences. For deriving these toposequences with regard to multiple attributes (eg. topography, soils, vegetation) the LUMP-algorithm (Landscape Unit Mapping Program) was developed and related to objective 2. It incorporates an algorithm to retrieve representative catenas and their attributes, based on a Digital Elevation Model and supplemental spatial data. These catenas are classified to provide the discretization for the WASA-SED model. For objective 3, water and sediment fluxes were monitored at the catchment outlet of the Isábena and some of its sub-catchments. For sediment yield estimation, the intermittent measurements of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) had to be interpolated. This thesis presents a comparison of traditional sediment rating curves (SRCs), generalized linear models (GLMs) and non-parametric regression using Random Forests (RF) and Quantile Regression Forests (QRF). The observed SSCs are highly variable and range over six orders of magnitude. For these data, traditional SRCs performed poorly, as did GLMs, despite including other relevant process variables (e.g. rainfall intensities, discharge characteristics). RF and QRF proved to be very robust and performed favourably for reproducing sediment dynamics. QRF additionally excels in providing estimates on the accuracy of the predictions. Subsequent analysis showed that most of the sediment was exported during intense storms of late summer. Later floods yielded successively less sediment. Comparing sediment generation to yield at the outlet suggested considerable storage effects within the river channel. Addressing objective 4, the WASA-SED model was parameterized for the two study areas in NE Spain and applied with different foci. For Ribera Salada, the uncalibrated model yielded reasonable results for runoff and sediment. It provided quantitative measures of the change in runoff and sediment yield for different land-uses. Additional land management scenarios were presented and compared to impacts caused by climate change projections. In contrast, the application for the Isábena focussed on exploring the full potential of the model's predictive capabilities. The calibrated model achieved an acceptable performance for the validation period in terms of water and sediment fluxes. The inadequate representation of the lower sub-catchments inflicted considerable reductions on model performance, while results for the headwater catchments showed good agreement despite stark contrasts in sediment yield. In summary, the application of WASA-SED to three catchments proved the model framework to be a practicable multi-scale approach. It successfully links the hillslope to the catchment scale and integrates the three components hillslope, river and reservoir in one model. Thus, it provides a feasible approach for tackling issues of water and sediment yield at the meso-scale. The crucial role of processes like transmission losses and sediment storage in the river has been identified. Further advances can be expected when the representation of connectivity of water and sediment fluxes (intra-hillslope, hillslope-river, intra-river) is refined and input data improves.
Lake ecosystems across the globe have responded to climate warming of recent decades. However, correctly attributing observed changes to altered climatic conditions is complicated by multiple anthropogenic influences on lakes. This thesis contributes to a better understanding of climate impacts on freshwater phytoplankton, which forms the basis of the food chain and decisively influences water quality. The analyses were, for the most part, based on a long-term data set of physical, chemical and biological variables of a shallow, polymictic lake in north-eastern Germany (Müggelsee), which was subject to a simultaneous change in climate and trophic state during the past three decades. Data analysis included constructing a dynamic simulation model, implementing a genetic algorithm to parameterize models, and applying statistical techniques of classification tree and time-series analysis. Model results indicated that climatic factors and trophic state interactively determine the timing of the phytoplankton spring bloom (phenology) in shallow lakes. Under equally mild spring conditions, the phytoplankton spring bloom collapsed earlier under high than under low nutrient availability, due to a switch from a bottom-up driven to a top-down driven collapse. A novel approach to model phenology proved useful to assess the timings of population peaks in an artificially forced zooplankton-phytoplankton system. Mimicking climate warming by lengthening the growing period advanced algal blooms and consequently also peaks in zooplankton abundance. Investigating the reasons for the contrasting development of cyanobacteria during two recent summer heat wave events revealed that anomalously hot weather did not always, as often hypothesized, promote cyanobacteria in the nutrient-rich lake studied. The seasonal timing and duration of heat waves determined whether critical thresholds of thermal stratification, decisive for cyanobacterial bloom formation, were crossed. In addition, the temporal patterns of heat wave events influenced the summer abundance of some zooplankton species, which as predators may serve as a buffer by suppressing phytoplankton bloom formation. This thesis adds to the growing body of evidence that lake ecosystems have strongly responded to climatic changes of recent decades. It reaches beyond many previous studies of climate impacts on lakes by focusing on underlying mechanisms and explicitly considering multiple environmental changes. Key findings show that climate impacts are more severe in nutrient-rich than in nutrient-poor lakes. Hence, to develop lake management plans for the future, limnologists need to seek a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of overlapping effects of the multi-faceted human footprint on aquatic ecosystems.
Mathematical modeling of biological phenomena has experienced increasing interest since new high-throughput technologies give access to growing amounts of molecular data. These modeling approaches are especially able to test hypotheses which are not yet experimentally accessible or guide an experimental setup. One particular attempt investigates the evolutionary dynamics responsible for today's composition of organisms. Computer simulations either propose an evolutionary mechanism and thus reproduce a recent finding or rebuild an evolutionary process in order to learn about its mechanism. The quest for evolutionary fingerprints in metabolic and gene-coexpression networks is the central topic of this cumulative thesis based on four published articles. An understanding of the actual origin of life will probably remain an insoluble problem. However, one can argue that after a first simple metabolism has evolved, the further evolution of metabolism occurred in parallel with the evolution of the sequences of the catalyzing enzymes. Indications of such a coevolution can be found when correlating the change in sequence between two enzymes with their distance on the metabolic network which is obtained from the KEGG database. We observe that there exists a small but significant correlation primarily on nearest neighbors. This indicates that enzymes catalyzing subsequent reactions tend to be descended from the same precursor. Since this correlation is relatively small one can at least assume that, if new enzymes are no "genetic children" of the previous enzymes, they certainly be descended from any of the already existing ones. Following this hypothesis, we introduce a model of enzyme-pathway coevolution. By iteratively adding enzymes, this model explores the metabolic network in a manner similar to diffusion. With implementation of an Gillespie-like algorithm we are able to introduce a tunable parameter that controls the weight of sequence similarity when choosing a new enzyme. Furthermore, this method also defines a time difference between successive evolutionary innovations in terms of a new enzyme. Overall, these simulations generate putative time-courses of the evolutionary walk on the metabolic network. By a time-series analysis, we find that the acquisition of new enzymes appears in bursts which are pronounced when the influence of the sequence similarity is higher. This behavior strongly resembles punctuated equilibrium which denotes the observation that new species tend to appear in bursts as well rather than in a gradual manner. Thus, our model helps to establish a better understanding of punctuated equilibrium giving a potential description at molecular level. From the time-courses we also extract a tentative order of new enzymes, metabolites, and even organisms. The consistence of this order with previous findings provides evidence for the validity of our approach. While the sequence of a gene is actually subject to mutations, its expression profile might also indirectly change through the evolutionary events in the cellular interplay. Gene coexpression data is simply accessible by microarray experiments and commonly illustrated using coexpression networks where genes are nodes and get linked once they show a significant coexpression. Since the large number of genes makes an illustration of the entire coexpression network difficult, clustering helps to show the network on a metalevel. Various clustering techniques already exist. However, we introduce a novel one which maintains control of the cluster sizes and thus assures proper visual inspection. An application of the method on Arabidopsis thaliana reveals that genes causing a severe phenotype often show a functional uniqueness in their network vicinity. This leads to 20 genes of so far unknown phenotype which are however suggested to be essential for plant growth. Of these, six indeed provoke such a severe phenotype, shown by mutant analysis. By an inspection of the degree distribution of the A.thaliana coexpression network, we identified two characteristics. The distribution deviates from the frequently observed power-law by a sharp truncation which follows after an over-representation of highly connected nodes. For a better understanding, we developed an evolutionary model which mimics the growth of a coexpression network by gene duplication which underlies a strong selection criterion, and slight mutational changes in the expression profile. Despite the simplicity of our assumption, we can reproduce the observed properties in A.thaliana as well as in E.coli and S.cerevisiae. The over-representation of high-degree nodes could be identified with mutually well connected genes of similar functional families: zinc fingers (PF00096), flagella, and ribosomes respectively. In conclusion, these four manuscripts demonstrate the usefulness of mathematical models and statistical tools as a source of new biological insight. While the clustering approach of gene coexpression data leads to the phenotypic characterization of so far unknown genes and thus supports genome annotation, our model approaches offer explanations for observed properties of the coexpression network and furthermore substantiate punctuated equilibrium as an evolutionary process by a deeper understanding of an underlying molecular mechanism.
Complete protection against flood risks by structural measures is impossible. Therefore flood prediction is important for flood risk management. Good explanatory power of flood models requires a meaningful representation of bio-physical processes. Therefore great interest exists to improve the process representation. Progress in hydrological process understanding is achieved through a learning cycle including critical assessment of an existing model for a given catchment as a first step. The assessment will highlight deficiencies of the model, from which useful additional data requirements are derived, giving a guideline for new measurements. These new measurements may in turn lead to improved process concepts. The improved process concepts are finally summarized in an updated hydrological model. In this thesis I demonstrate such a learning cycle, focusing on the advancement of model evaluation methods and more cost effective measurements. For a successful model evaluation, I propose that three questions should be answered: 1) when is a model reproducing observations in a satisfactory way? 2) If model results deviate, of what nature is the difference? And 3) what are most likely the relevant model components affecting these differences? To answer the first two questions, I developed a new method to assess the temporal dynamics of model performance (or TIGER - TIme series of Grouped Errors). This method is powerful in highlighting recurrent patterns of insufficient model behaviour for long simulation periods. I answered the third question with the analysis of the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity (TEDPAS). For calculating TEDPAS, an efficient method for sensitivity analysis is necessary. I used such an efficient method called Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test, which has a smart sampling scheme. Combining the two methods TIGER and TEDPAS provided a powerful tool for model assessment. With WaSiM-ETH applied to the Weisseritz catchment as a case study, I found insufficient process descriptions for the snow dynamics and for the recession during dry periods in late summer and fall. Focusing on snow dynamics, reasons for poor model performance can either be a poor representation of snow processes in the model, or poor data on snow cover, or both. To obtain an improved data set on snow cover, time series of snow height and temperatures were collected with a cost efficient method based on temperature measurements on multiple levels at each location. An algorithm was developed to simultaneously estimate snow height and cold content from these measurements. Both, snow height and cold content are relevant quantities for spring flood forecasting. Spatial variability was observed at the local and the catchment scale with an adjusted sampling design. At the local scale, samples were collected on two perpendicular transects of 60 m length and analysed with geostatistical methods. The range determined from fitted theoretical variograms was within the range of the sampling design for 80% of the plots. No patterns were found, that would explain the random variability and spatial correlation at the local scale. At the watershed scale, locations of the extensive field campaign were selected according to a stratified sample design to capture the combined effects of elevation, aspect and land use. The snow height is mainly affected by the plot elevation. The expected influence of aspect and land use was not observed. To better understand the deficiencies of the snow module in WaSiM-ETH, the same approach, a simple degree day model was checked for its capability to reproduce the data. The degree day model was capable to explain the temporal variability for plots with a continuous snow pack over the entire snow season, if parameters were estimated for single plots. However, processes described in the simple model are not sufficient to represent multiple accumulation-melt-cycles, as observed for the lower catchment. Thus, the combined spatio-temporal variability at the watershed scale is not captured by the model. Further tests on improved concepts for the representation of snow dynamics at the Weißeritz are required. From the data I suggest to include at least rain on snow and redistribution by wind as additional processes to better describe spatio-temporal variability. Alternatively an energy balance snow model could be tested. Overall, the proposed learning cycle is a useful framework for targeted model improvement. The advanced model diagnostics is valuable to identify model deficiencies and to guide field measurements. The additional data collected throughout this work helps to get a deepened understanding of the processes in the Weisseritz catchment.
Structuring process models
(2012)
One can fairly adopt the ideas of Donald E. Knuth to conclude that process modeling is both a science and an art. Process modeling does have an aesthetic sense. Similar to composing an opera or writing a novel, process modeling is carried out by humans who undergo creative practices when engineering a process model. Therefore, the very same process can be modeled in a myriad number of ways. Once modeled, processes can be analyzed by employing scientific methods. Usually, process models are formalized as directed graphs, with nodes representing tasks and decisions, and directed arcs describing temporal constraints between the nodes. Common process definition languages, such as Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) and Event-driven Process Chain (EPC) allow process analysts to define models with arbitrary complex topologies. The absence of structural constraints supports creativity and productivity, as there is no need to force ideas into a limited amount of available structural patterns. Nevertheless, it is often preferable that models follow certain structural rules. A well-known structural property of process models is (well-)structuredness. A process model is (well-)structured if and only if every node with multiple outgoing arcs (a split) has a corresponding node with multiple incoming arcs (a join), and vice versa, such that the set of nodes between the split and the join induces a single-entry-single-exit (SESE) region; otherwise the process model is unstructured. The motivations for well-structured process models are manifold: (i) Well-structured process models are easier to layout for visual representation as their formalizations are planar graphs. (ii) Well-structured process models are easier to comprehend by humans. (iii) Well-structured process models tend to have fewer errors than unstructured ones and it is less probable to introduce new errors when modifying a well-structured process model. (iv) Well-structured process models are better suited for analysis with many existing formal techniques applicable only for well-structured process models. (v) Well-structured process models are better suited for efficient execution and optimization, e.g., when discovering independent regions of a process model that can be executed concurrently. Consequently, there are process modeling languages that encourage well-structured modeling, e.g., Business Process Execution Language (BPEL) and ADEPT. However, the well-structured process modeling implies some limitations: (i) There exist processes that cannot be formalized as well-structured process models. (ii) There exist processes that when formalized as well-structured process models require a considerable duplication of modeling constructs. Rather than expecting well-structured modeling from start, we advocate for the absence of structural constraints when modeling. Afterwards, automated methods can suggest, upon request and whenever possible, alternative formalizations that are "better" structured, preferably well-structured. In this thesis, we study the problem of automatically transforming process models into equivalent well-structured models. The developed transformations are performed under a strong notion of behavioral equivalence which preserves concurrency. The findings are implemented in a tool, which is publicly available.
Systems of Systems (SoS) have received a lot of attention recently. In this thesis we will focus on SoS that are built atop the techniques of Service-Oriented Architectures and thus combine the benefits and challenges of both paradigms. For this thesis we will understand SoS as ensembles of single autonomous systems that are integrated to a larger system, the SoS. The interesting fact about these systems is that the previously isolated systems are still maintained, improved and developed on their own. Structural dynamics is an issue in SoS, as at every point in time systems can join and leave the ensemble. This and the fact that the cooperation among the constituent systems is not necessarily observable means that we will consider these systems as open systems. Of course, the system has a clear boundary at each point in time, but this can only be identified by halting the complete SoS. However, halting a system of that size is practically impossible. Often SoS are combinations of software systems and physical systems. Hence a failure in the software system can have a serious physical impact what makes an SoS of this kind easily a safety-critical system. The contribution of this thesis is a modelling approach that extends OMG's SoaML and basically relies on collaborations and roles as an abstraction layer above the components. This will allow us to describe SoS at an architectural level. We will also give a formal semantics for our modelling approach which employs hybrid graph-transformation systems. The modelling approach is accompanied by a modular verification scheme that will be able to cope with the complexity constraints implied by the SoS' structural dynamics and size. Building such autonomous systems as SoS without evolution at the architectural level --- i. e. adding and removing of components and services --- is inadequate. Therefore our approach directly supports the modelling and verification of evolution.