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Institute
- Institut für Mathematik (63) (remove)
This article assesses the distance between the laws of stochastic differential equations with multiplicative Levy noise on path space in terms of their characteristics. The notion of transportation distance on the set of Levy kernels introduced by Kosenkova and Kulik yields a natural and statistically tractable upper bound on the noise sensitivity. This extends recent results for the additive case in terms of coupling distances to the multiplicative case. The strength of this notion is shown in a statistical implementation for simulations and the example of a benchmark time series in paleoclimate.
Broad-spectrum antibiotic combination therapy is frequently applied due to increasing resistance development of infective pathogens. The objective of the present study was to evaluate two common empiric broad-spectrum combination therapies consisting of either linezolid (LZD) or vancomycin (VAN) combined with meropenem (MER) against Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) as the most frequent causative pathogen of severe infections. A semimechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model mimicking a simplified bacterial life-cycle of S. aureus was developed upon time-kill curve data to describe the effects of LZD, VAN, and MER alone and in dual combinations. The PK-PD model was successfully (i) evaluated with external data from two clinical S. aureus isolates and further drug combinations and (ii) challenged to predict common clinical PK-PD indices and breakpoints. Finally, clinical trial simulations were performed that revealed that the combination of VAN-MER might be favorable over LZD-MER due to an unfavorable antagonistic interaction between LZD and MER.
As a potentially toxic agent on nervous system and bone, the safety of aluminium exposure from adjuvants in vaccines and subcutaneous immune therapy (SCIT) products has to be continuously reevaluated, especially regarding concomitant administrations. For this purpose, knowledge on absorption and disposition of aluminium in plasma and tissues is essential. Pharmacokinetic data after vaccination in humans, however, are not available, and for methodological and ethical reasons difficult to obtain. To overcome these limitations, we discuss the possibility of an in vitro-in silico approach combining a toxicokinetic model for aluminium disposition with biorelevant kinetic absorption parameters from adjuvants. We critically review available kinetic aluminium-26 data for model building and, on the basis of a reparameterized toxicokinetic model (Nolte et al., 2001), we identify main modelling gaps. The potential of in vitro dissolution experiments for the prediction of intramuscular absorption kinetics of aluminium after vaccination is explored. It becomes apparent that there is need for detailed in vitro dissolution and in vivo absorption data to establish an in vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC) for aluminium adjuvants. We conclude that a combination of new experimental data and further refinement of the Nolte model has the potential to fill a gap in aluminium risk assessment. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
When trying to extend the Hodge theory for elliptic complexes on compact closed manifolds to the case of compact manifolds with boundary one is led to a boundary value problem for the Laplacian of the complex which is usually referred to as Neumann problem. We study the Neumann problem for a larger class of sequences of differential operators on a compact manifold with boundary. These are sequences of small curvature, i.e., bearing the property that the composition of any two neighbouring operators has order less than two.
The classical Navier-Stokes equations of hydrodynamics are usually written in terms of vector analysis. More promising is the formulation of these equations in the language of differential forms of degree one. In this way the study of Navier-Stokes equations includes the analysis of the de Rham complex. In particular, the Hodge theory for the de Rham complex enables one to eliminate the pressure from the equations. The Navier-Stokes equations constitute a parabolic system with a nonlinear term which makes sense only for one-forms. A simpler model of dynamics of incompressible viscous fluid is given by Burgers' equation. This work is aimed at the study of invariant structure of the Navier-Stokes equations which is closely related to the algebraic structure of the de Rham complex at step 1. To this end we introduce Navier-Stokes equations related to any elliptic quasicomplex of first order differential operators. These equations are quite similar to the classical Navier-Stokes equations including generalised velocity and pressure vectors. Elimination of the pressure from the generalised Navier-Stokes equations gives a good motivation for the study of the Neumann problem after Spencer for elliptic quasicomplexes. Such a study is also included in the work.We start this work by discussion of Lamé equations within the context of elliptic quasicomplexes on compact manifolds with boundary. The non-stationary Lamé equations form a hyperbolic system. However, the study of the first mixed problem for them gives a good experience to attack the linearised Navier-Stokes equations. On this base we describe a class of non-linear perturbations of the Navier-Stokes equations, for which the solvability results still hold.
The knowledge of the largest expected earthquake magnitude in a region is one of the key issues in probabilistic seismic hazard calculations and the estimation of worst-case scenarios. Earthquake catalogues are the most informative source of information for the inference of earthquake magnitudes. We analysed the earthquake catalogue for Central Asia with respect to the largest expected magnitudes m(T) in a pre-defined time horizon T-f using a recently developed statistical methodology, extended by the explicit probabilistic consideration of magnitude errors. For this aim, we assumed broad error distributions for historical events, whereas the magnitudes of recently recorded instrumental earthquakes had smaller errors. The results indicate high probabilities for the occurrence of large events (M >= 8), even in short time intervals of a few decades. The expected magnitudes relative to the assumed maximum possible magnitude are generally higher for intermediate-depth earthquakes (51-300 km) than for shallow events (0-50 km). For long future time horizons, for example, a few hundred years, earthquakes with M >= 8.5 have to be taken into account, although, apart from the 1889 Chilik earthquake, it is probable that no such event occurred during the observation period of the catalogue.
The Cauchy problem for the linearised Einstein equation and the Goursat problem for wave equations
(2017)
In this thesis, we study two initial value problems arising in general relativity. The first is the Cauchy problem for the linearised Einstein equation on general globally hyperbolic spacetimes, with smooth and distributional initial data. We extend well-known results by showing that given a solution to the linearised constraint equations of arbitrary real Sobolev regularity, there is a globally defined solution, which is unique up to addition of gauge solutions. Two solutions are considered equivalent if they differ by a gauge solution. Our main result is that the equivalence class of solutions depends continuously on the corre- sponding equivalence class of initial data. We also solve the linearised constraint equations in certain cases and show that there exist arbitrarily irregular (non-gauge) solutions to the linearised Einstein equation on Minkowski spacetime and Kasner spacetime.
In the second part, we study the Goursat problem (the characteristic Cauchy problem) for wave equations. We specify initial data on a smooth compact Cauchy horizon, which is a lightlike hypersurface. This problem has not been studied much, since it is an initial value problem on a non-globally hyperbolic spacetime. Our main result is that given a smooth function on a non-empty, smooth, compact, totally geodesic and non-degenerate Cauchy horizon and a so called admissible linear wave equation, there exists a unique solution that is defined on the globally hyperbolic region and restricts to the given function on the Cauchy horizon. Moreover, the solution depends continuously on the initial data. A linear wave equation is called admissible if the first order part satisfies a certain condition on the Cauchy horizon, for example if it vanishes. Interestingly, both existence of solution and uniqueness are false for general wave equations, as examples show. If we drop the non-degeneracy assumption, examples show that existence of solution fails even for the simplest wave equation. The proof requires precise energy estimates for the wave equation close to the Cauchy horizon. In case the Ricci curvature vanishes on the Cauchy horizon, we show that the energy estimates are strong enough to prove local existence and uniqueness for a class of non-linear wave equations. Our results apply in particular to the Taub-NUT spacetime and the Misner spacetime. It has recently been shown that compact Cauchy horizons in spacetimes satisfying the null energy condition are necessarily smooth and totally geodesic. Our results therefore apply if the spacetime satisfies the null energy condition and the Cauchy horizon is compact and non-degenerate.
Background Evolution of metastatic melanoma (MM) under B-RAF inhibitors (BRAFi) is unpredictable, but anticipation is crucial for therapeutic decision. Kinetics changes in metastatic growth are driven by molecular and immune events, and thus we hypothesized that they convey relevant information for decision making. Patients and methods We used a retrospective cohort of 37 MM patients treated by BRAFi only with at least 2 close CT-scans available before BRAFi, as a model to study kinetics of metastatic growth before, under and after BRAFi. All metastases (mets) were individually measured at each CT-scan. From these measurements, different measures of growth kinetics of each met and total tumor volume were computed at different time points. A historical cohort permitted to build a reference model for the expected spontaneous disease kinetics without BRAFi. All variables were included in Cox and multistate regression models for survival, to select best candidates for predicting overall survival. Results Before starting BRAFi, fast kinetics and moreover a wide range of kinetics (fast and slow growing mets in a same patient) were pejorative markers. At the first assessment after BRAFi introduction, high heterogeneity of kinetics predicted short survival, and added independent information over RECIST progression in multivariate analysis. Metastatic growth rates after BRAFi discontinuation was usually not faster than before BRAFi introduction, but they were often more heterogeneous than before. Conclusions Monitoring kinetics of different mets before and under BRAFi by repeated CT-scan provides information for predictive mathematical modelling. Disease kinetics deserves more interest
The interdisciplinary workshop STOCHASTIC PROCESSES WITH APPLICATIONS IN THE NATURAL SCIENCES was held in Bogotá, at Universidad de los Andes from December 5 to December 9, 2016. It brought together researchers from Colombia, Germany, France, Italy, Ukraine, who communicated recent progress in the mathematical research related to stochastic processes with application in biophysics.
The present volume collects three of the four courses held at this meeting by Angelo Valleriani, Sylvie Rœlly and Alexei Kulik.
A particular aim of this collection is to inspire young scientists in setting up research goals within the wide scope of fields represented in this volume.
Angelo Valleriani, PhD in high energy physics, is group leader of the team "Stochastic processes in complex and biological systems" from the Max-Planck-Institute of Colloids and Interfaces, Potsdam.
Sylvie Rœlly, Docteur en Mathématiques, is the head of the chair of Probability at the University of Potsdam.
Alexei Kulik, Doctor of Sciences, is a Leading researcher at the Institute of Mathematics of Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences.
In this thesis, stochastic dynamics modelling collective motions of populations, one of the most mysterious type of biological phenomena, are considered. For a system of N particle-like individuals, two kinds of asymptotic behaviours are studied : ergodicity and flocking properties, in long time, and propagation of chaos, when the number N of agents goes to infinity. Cucker and Smale, deterministic, mean-field kinetic model for a population without a hierarchical structure is the starting point of our journey : the first two chapters are dedicated to the understanding of various stochastic dynamics it inspires, with random noise added in different ways. The third chapter, an attempt to improve those results, is built upon the cluster expansion method, a technique from statistical mechanics. Exponential ergodicity is obtained for a class of non-Markovian process with non-regular drift. In the final part, the focus shifts onto a stochastic system of interacting particles derived from Keller and Segel 2-D parabolicelliptic model for chemotaxis. Existence and weak uniqueness are proven.
We study biased Maker-Breaker positional games between two players, one of whom is playing randomly against an opponent with an optimal strategy. In this work we focus on the case of Breaker playing randomly and Maker being "clever". The reverse scenario is treated in a separate paper. We determine the sharp threshold bias of classical games played on the edge set of the complete graph , such as connectivity, perfect matching, Hamiltonicity, and minimum degree-1 and -2. In all of these games, the threshold is equal to the trivial upper bound implied by the number of edges needed for Maker to occupy a winning set. Moreover, we show that CleverMaker can not only win against asymptotically optimal bias, but can do so very fast, wasting only logarithmically many moves (while the winning set sizes are linear in n).
Particle filters (also called sequential Monte Carlo methods) are widely used for state and parameter estimation problems in the context of nonlinear evolution equations. The recently proposed ensemble transform particle filter (ETPF) [S. Reich, SIAM T. Sci. Comput., 35, (2013), pp. A2013-A2014[ replaces the resampling step of a standard particle filter by a linear transformation which allows for a hybridization of particle filters with ensemble Kalman filters and renders the resulting hybrid filters applicable to spatially extended systems. However, the linear transformation step is computationally expensive and leads to an underestimation of the ensemble spread for small and moderate ensemble sizes. Here we address both of these shortcomings by developing second order accurate extensions of the ETPF. These extensions allow one in particular to replace the exact solution of a linear transport problem by its Sinkhorn approximation. It is also demonstrated that the nonlinear ensemble transform filter arises as a special case of our general framework. We illustrate the performance of the second-order accurate filters for the chaotic Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models and a dynamic scene-viewing model. The numerical results for the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models demonstrate that significant accuracy improvements can be achieved in comparison to a standard ensemble Kalman filter and the ETPF for small to moderate ensemble sizes. The numerical results for the scene-viewing model reveal, on the other hand, that second-order corrections can lead to statistically inconsistent samples from the posterior parameter distribution.
We prove that the Atiyah–Singer Dirac operator in L2 depends Riesz continuously on L∞ perturbations of complete metrics g on a smooth manifold. The Lipschitz bound for the map depends on bounds on Ricci curvature and its first derivatives as well as a lower bound on injectivity radius. Our proof uses harmonic analysis techniques related to Calderón’s first commutator and the Kato square root problem. We also show perturbation results for more general functions of general Dirac-type operators on vector bundles.
We show a connection between the CDE′ inequality introduced in Horn et al. (Volume doubling, Poincaré inequality and Gaussian heat kernel estimate for nonnegative curvature graphs. arXiv:1411.5087v2, 2014) and the CDψ inequality established in Münch (Li–Yau inequality on finite graphs via non-linear curvature dimension conditions. arXiv:1412.3340v1, 2014). In particular, we introduce a CDφψ inequality as a slight generalization of CDψ which turns out to be equivalent to CDE′ with appropriate choices of φ and ψ. We use this to prove that the CDE′ inequality implies the classical CD inequality on graphs, and that the CDE′ inequality with curvature bound zero holds on Ricci-flat graphs.
Raum und Form
(2017)
We introduce an abstract concept of quantum field theory on categories fibered in groupoids over the category of spacetimes. This provides us with a general and flexible framework to study quantum field theories defined on spacetimes with extra geometric structures such as bundles, connections and spin structures. Using right Kan extensions, we can assign to any such theory an ordinary quantum field theory defined on the category of spacetimes and we shall clarify under which conditions it satisfies the axioms of locally covariant quantum field theory. The same constructions can be performed in a homotopy theoretic framework by using homotopy right Kan extensions, which allows us to obtain first toy-models of homotopical quantum field theories resembling some aspects of gauge theories.
Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California
(2017)
Audience Response Systeme (ARS) stellen eine Ergänzung der Hochschullehre dar, um die Teilnehmeraktivierung zu stärken und die Studierenden unmittelbar in das Vorlesungsgeschehen einzubinden. Es existiert eine Fülle an Lösungen, die entweder ohne dedizierte Hardware auskommen (sogenannte Software-Clicker) oder die Anschaffung meist kommerzieller Hardware- Lösungen voraussetzen. An dieser Stelle versucht Hands. UP eine integrative Brücke zu schlagen. Auf Grundlage einer Kosten- und Aufwandsschätzung ausgewählter ARS-Lösungen soll die Notwendigkeit hochschulübergreifender Kooperationen hinsichtlich einer adäquate Weiterentwicklung und des Einsatzes von ARS in der Lehre motiviert werden.