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Individual great earthquakes are posited to release the elastic strain energy that has accumulated over centuries by the gradual movement of tectonic plates(1,2). However, knowledge of plate deformation during a complete seismic cycle-two successive great earthquakes and the intervening interseismic period-remains incomplete(3). A complete seismic cycle began in south-central Chile in 1835 with an earthquake of about magnitude 8.5 (refs 4,5) and ended in 2010 with a magnitude 8.8 earthquake(6). During the first earthquake, an uplift of Isla Santa Maria by 2.4 to 3m was documented(4,5). In the second earthquake, the island was uplifted(7) by 1.8 m. Here we use nautical surveys made in 1804, after the earthquake in 1835 and in 1886, together with modern echo sounder surveys and GPS measurements made immediately before and after the 2010 earthquake, to quantify vertical deformation through the complete seismic cycle. We find that in the period between the two earthquakes, Isla Santa Maria subsided by about 1.4 m. We simulate the patterns of vertical deformation with a finite-element model and find that they agree broadly with predictions from elastic rebound theory(2). However, comparison with geomorphic and geologic records of millennial coastline emergence(8,9) reveal that 10-20% of the vertical uplift could be permanent.
The southern margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau (CAP) records a strong uplift phase after the early Middle Pleistocene, which has been related to the slab break-off of the subducting Arabian plate beneath the Anatolian microplate. During the last 450 kyr the area underwent an uplift phase at a mean rate of similar to 3.2 m/kyr, as suggested by Middle Pleistocene marine sediments exposed at similar to 1,500 m above sea level. These values are significantly higher than the 1.0-1.5 m/kyr estimated since the Late Pleistocene, suggesting temporal variations in uplift rate. To estimate changes in uplift rate during the Pleistocene we studied the marine terraces along the CAP southern margin, mapping the remnants of the platforms and their associated deposits in the field, and used the TerraceM software to identify the position and elevation of associated shoreline angles. We used shoreline angles and the timing of Quaternary marine sedimentation as constrains for a Landscape Evolution Model that simulates wave erosion of an uplifting coast. We applied random optimization algorithms and minimization statistics to find the input parameters that better reproduce the morphology of CAP marine terraces. The best-fitting uplift rate history suggests a significative increase from 1.9 to 3.5 m/kyr between 500 and 200 kyr, followed by an abrupt decrease to 1.4 m/kyr until the present. Our results agree with slab break-off models, which suggest a strong uplift pulse during slab rupture followed by a smoother decrease.
Major earthquakes ( M > 8) have repeatedly ruptured the Nazca-South America plate interface of south-central Chile involving meter scale land-level changes. Earthquake recurrence intervals, however, extending beyond limited historical records are virtually unknown, but would provide crucial data on the tectonic behavior of forearcs. We analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of Holocene earthquakes on Santa Maria Island (SMI; 37 degrees S), located 20 km off the Chilean coast and approximately 70 km east of the trench. SMI hosts a minimum of 21 uplifted beach berms, of which a subset were dated to calculate a mean uplift rate of 2.3 +/- 0.2 m/ky and a tilting rate of 0.022 +/- 0.002 degrees/ky. The inferred recurrence interval of strandline-forming earthquakes is similar to 180 years. Combining coseismic uplift and aseismic subsidence during an earthquake cycle, the net gain in strandline elevation in this environment is similar to 0.4 m per event
The architecture of coastal sequences in tectonically-active regions results mostly from a combination of sea-level and land-level changes. The objective of this study is to unravel these signals by combining sequence stratigraphy and sedimentology of near-shore sedimentary sequences in wave-built terraces. We focus on Santa Maria Island at the south-central Chile margin, which hosts excellent exposures of coastal sediments from Marine Isotope Stage 3. A novel method based on statistical analysis of grain-size distributions coupled with fades descriptions provided a detailed account of transgressive-regressive cycles. Radiocarbon ages from paleosols constrain the chronology between >53 and similar to 31 cal ka BP. Because the influence of glaciations can be neglected, we calculated relative sea-level curves by tying the onset of deposition on a bedrock abrasion platform to a global sea-level curve. The observed depositional cycles match those predicted for uplift rates between 1.2 and 1.8 m/ka. The studied sedimentary units represent depositional cycles that resulted in reoccupation events of an existing marine terrace. Our study demonstrates wave-built marine terrace deposits along clastic shorelines in temperate regions can be used to distinguish between tectonic uplift and climate-induced sea-level changes.
The Maule earthquake of 27th February 2010 (M-w = 8.8) affected similar to 500 km of the Nazca-South America plate boundary in south-central Chile producing spectacular crustal deformation. Here, we present a detailed estimate of static coseismic surface offsets as measured by survey and continuous GPS, both in near- and far-field regions. Earthquake slip along the megathrust has been inferred from a Joint inversion of our new data together with published GPS, InSAR, and land-level changes data using Green's functions generated by a spherical finite-element model with realistic subduction zone geometry. The combination of the data sets provided a good resolution, indicating that most of the slip was well resolved. Coseismic slip was concentrated north of the epicenter with up to 16 m of slip, whereas to the south it reached over 10 m within two minor patches. A comparison of coseismic slip with the slip deficit accumulated since the last great earthquake in 1835 suggests that the 2010 event closed a mature seismic gap. Slip deficit distribution shows an apparent local overshoot that highlight cycle-to-cycle variability, which has to be taken into account when anticipating future events from interseismic observations. Rupture propagation was obviously not affected by bathymetric features of the incoming plate. Instead, splay faults in the upper plate seem to have limited rupture propagation in the updip and along-strike directions. Additionally, we found that along-strike gradients in slip are spatially correlated with geometrical inflections of the megathrust. Our study suggests that persistent tectonic features may control strain accumulation and release along subduction megathrusts.
Along a subduction zone, great megathrust earthquakes recur either after long seismic gaps lasting several decades to centuries or over much shorter periods lasting hours to a few years when cascading successions of earthquakes rupture nearby segments of the fault. We analyze a decade of continuous Global Positioning System observations along the South American continent to estimate changes in deformation rates between the 2010 Maule (M8.8) and 2015 Illapel (M8.3) Chilean earthquakes. We find that surface velocities increased after the 2010 earthquake, in response to continental-scale viscoelastic mantle relaxation and to regional-scale increased degree of interplate locking. We propose that increased locking occurs transiently during a super-interseismic phase in segments adjacent to a megathrust rupture, responding to bending of both plates caused by coseismic slip and subsequent afterslip. Enhanced strain rates during a super-interseismic phase may therefore bring a megathrust segment closer to failure and possibly triggered the 2015 event.
The first step towards assessing hazards in seismically active regions involves mapping capable faults and estimating their recurrence times. While the mapping of active faults is commonly based on distinct geologic and geomorphic features evident at the surface, mapping blind seismogenic faults is complicated by the absence of on-fault diagnostic features. Here we investigated the Pichilemu Fault in coastal Chile, unknown until it generated a Mw 7.0 earthquake in 2010. The lack of evident surface faulting suggests activity along a partly-hidden blind fault. We used off-fault deformed marine terraces to estimate a fault-slip rate of 0.52 ± 0.04 m/ka, which, when integrated with satellite geodesy suggests a 2.12 ± 0.2 ka recurrence time for Mw~7.0 normal-faulting earthquakes. We propose that extension in the Pichilemu region is associated with stress changes during megathrust earthquakes and accommodated by sporadic slip during upper-plate earthquakes, which has implications for assessing the seismic potential of cryptic faults along convergent margins and elsewhere.
High-resolution topographic data greatly facilitate the remote identification of geomorphic features, furnishing valuable information concerning surface processes and characterization of reference markers for quantifying tectonic deformation. Marine terraces have been used as long baseline geodetic markers of relative past sea-level positions, reflecting the interplay between vertical crustal movements and sea-level oscillations. Uplift rates may be determined from the terrace age and the elevation of its shoreline angle, a geomorphic feature that can be correlated with past sea-levels positions. A precise definition of the shoreline angle in time and space is essential to obtain reliable uplift rates with coherent spatial correlation. To improve our ability to rapidly assess and map shoreline angles at regional and local scales, we have developed TerraceM, a MATLAB (R) graphical user interface that allows the shoreline angle and its associated error to be estimated using high-resolution topography. TerraceM uses topographic swath profiles oriented orthogonally to the terrace riser. Four functions are included to analyze the swath profiles and extract the shoreline angle, from both staircase sequences of multiple terraces and rough coasts characterized by eroded remnants of emerged terrace surfaces. The former are measured by outlining the paleocliffs and paieo-platforms and finding their intersection by extrapolating linear regressions, whereas the latter are assessed by automatically detecting peaks of sea-stack tops and back-projecting them to the modern sea cliff. In the absence of rigorous absolute age determinations of marine terraces, their geomorphic age may be estimated using previously published diffusion models. Postprocessing functions are included to obtain first-order statistics of shoreline-angle elevations and their spatial distribution. TerraceM has the ability to process series of profiles from several sites in an efficient and structured workflow. Results may be exported in Google Earth and ESRI shapefile formats. The precision and accuracy of the method have been estimated from a case study at Santa Cruz, California, by comparing TerraceM results with published field measurements. The repeatability was evaluated using multiple measurements made by inexperienced users. TerraceM will improve the efficiency and precision of estimating shoreline-angle elevations in wave-cut terraces in both marine and lacustrine environments.
The morphology of marine and lacustrine terraces has been largely used to measure past sea- and lake-level positions and estimate vertical deformation in a wealth of studies focused on climate and tectonic processes. To obtain accurate morphometric assessments of terrace morphology we present TerraceM-2, an improved version of our MatlabR (R) graphic-user interface that provides new methodologies for morphometric analyses as well as landscape evolution and fault-dislocation modeling. The new version includes novel routines to map the elevation and spatial distribution of terraces, to model their formation and evolution, and to estimate fault-slip rates from terrace deformation patterns. TerraceM-2 has significantly improves its processing speed and mapping capabilities, and includes separate functions for developing customized workflows beyond the graphic-user interface. We illustrate these new mapping and modeling capabilities with three examples: mapping lacustrine shorelines in the Dead Sea to estimate deformation across the Dead Sea Fault, landscape evolution modeling to estimate a history of uplift rates in southern Peru, and dislocation modeling of deformed marine terraces in California. These examples also illustrate the need to use topographic data of different resolutions. The new modeling and mapping routines of TerraceM-2 highlight the advantages of an integrated joint mapping and modeling approach to improve the efficiency and precision of coastal terrace metrics in both marine and lacustrine environments.
We document Quaternary fluvial incision driven by fault-controlled surface deformation in the inverted intermontane Gökirmak Basin in the Central Pontide mountains along the northern margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau. In-situ-produced Be-10, Ne-21, and Cl-36 concentrations from gravel-covered fluvial terraces and pediment surfaces along the trunk stream of the basin (the Gökirmak River) yield model exposure ages ranging from 71ka to 34645ka and average fluvial incision rates over the past similar to 350ka of 0.280.01mm a(-1). Similarities between river incision rates and coastal uplift rates at the Black Sea coast suggest that regional uplift is responsible for the river incision. Model exposure ages of deformed pediment surfaces along tributaries of the trunk stream range from 605ka to 110 +/- 10ka, demonstrating that the thrust faults responsible for pediment deformation were active after those times and were likely active earlier as well as explaining the topographic relief of the region. Together, our data demonstrate cumulative incision that is linked to active internal shortening and uplift of similar to 0.3mm a(-1) in the Central Pontide orogenic wedge, which may ultimately contribute to the lateral growth of the northern Anatolian Plateau.
The subduction of bathymetric anomalies at convergent margins can profoundly affect subduction dynamics, magmatism, and the structural and geomorphic evolution of the overriding plate. The Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) is located east of the Chile Triple Junction at similar to 47 degrees S, where the Chile Rise spreading center collides with South America. This region is characterized by an abrupt increase in summit elevations and relief that has been controversially debated in the context of geodynamic versus glacial erosion effects on topography. Here we present geomorphic, thermochronological, and structural data that document neotectonic activity along hitherto unrecognized faults along the flanks of the NPI. New apatite (U-Th)/He bedrock cooling ages suggest faulting since 2-3 Ma. We infer the northward translation of an similar to 140 km long fore-arc sliver-the NPI block-results from enhanced partitioning of oblique plate convergence due to the closely spaced collision of three successive segments of the Chile Rise. In this model, greater uplift occurs in the hanging wall of the Exploradores thrust at the northern leading edge of the NPI block, whereas the Cachet and Liquine-Ofqui dextral faults decouple the NPI block along its eastern and western flanks, respectively. Localized extension possibly occurs at its southern trailing edge along normal faults associated with margin-parallel extension, tectonic subsidence, and lower elevations along the Andean crest line. Our neotectonic model provides a novel explanation for the abrupt topographic variations inland of the Chile Triple Junction and emphasizes the fundamental effects of local tectonics on exhumation and topographic patterns in this glaciated landscape.
We have investigated the influence that megathrust earthquake slip has on the activation of splay faults using a 2-D finite element method (FEM), taking into account the effects of gravity and variations in the frictional strength properties of splay faults. We simulated both landward-dipping and seaward-dipping splay fault geometries, and imposed depth-variable slip distributions of subduction events. Our results indicate that the two types of splay fault exhibit a similar behavior, with variations in frictional properties along the faults affecting only the seismic magnitude. The triggering process is controlled by a critical depth. Megathrust slip concentrated at depths shallower than the critical depth will favor normal displacement, while megathrust slip concentrated at depths deeper than the critical depth is likely to result in reverse motion. Our results thus provide a useful tool for predicting the activation of secondary faults and may have direct implications for tsunami hazard research.
Splay faults are thrusts that emerge from the plate boundaries of subduction zones. Such structures have been mapped at several convergent margins and their activity commonly ascribed to large megathrust earthquakes. However, the behavior of splay faults during the earthquake cycle is poorly constrained because typically these structures are located offshore and are difficult to access. Here we use geologic mapping combined with space and land geodesy, as well as offshore sonar data, to document surface-fault ruptures and coastal uplift at Isla Santa Maria in south-central Chile (37 degrees S) caused by the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake (M-w 8.8). During the earthquake, the island was tilted parallel to the margin, and normal faults ruptured the surface and adjacent ocean bottom. We associate tilt and crestal normal faulting with growth of an anticline above a blind reverse fault rooted in the Nazca-South America plate boundary, which slipped during the Maule earthquake. The splay fault system has formed in an area of reduced coseismic plate-boundary slip, suggesting that anelastic deformation in the upper plate may have restrained the 2010 megathrust rupture. Surface fault breaks were accompanied by prominent discharge of fluids. Our field observations support the notion that splay faulting may frequently complement and influence the rupture of subduction-zone earthquakes.
Central Anatolia is a low-relief, high-elevation region where decadal-scale deformation rates estimated from space geodesy suggest low strain rates within a stiff microplate. However, numerous Quaternary faults have been mapped within this low-strain region and estimating their slip rate and seismic potential is important for hazard assessments in an area of increasing infrastructural development. Here we focus on the Sultanhani Fault (SF), which constitutes an integral part of the Eskisehir-Cihanbeyli Fault System, and use deformed maximum highstand shorelines of palaeo-lake Konya to estimate tectonic slip rates at millennial scale. Some of these shorelines were previously interpreted as fault scarps, but we provide conclusive evidence for their erosional origin. We found that shoreline-angle elevations estimated from differential GPS profiles record vertical displacements of 10.2 m across the SF. New radiocarbon ages of lacustrine molluscs suggest 22.4 m of relative lake-level fall between 22.1 +/- 0.3 and 21.7 +/- 0.4 cal. kaBP, constraining the timing of abrupt abandonment of the highstand shoreline. Models of lithospheric rebound associated with regressions of the Tuz Golu and Konya palaeolakes predict only similar to 1 m of regional-scale uplift across the Konya Basin. Dislocation models of displaced shorelines suggest fault-slip rates of 1.5 and 1.8 mm yr(-1) for planar and listric fault geometries, respectively, providing reasonable results for the latter. We found fault scarps in the Nasuhpinar mudflat that likely represent the most recent ground-breaking rupture of the SF, with an average vertical displacement of 1.2 +/- 0.5 m estimated from 54 topographic profiles, equivalent to a M similar to 6.5-6.9 earthquake based on empirical scaling laws. If such events were characteristic during the ultimate 21 ka, a relatively short recurrence time of similar to 800-900 yr would be needed to account for the millennial slip rate. Alternatively, the fault scarp at Nasuhpinar might represent a larger earthquake requiring more frequent smaller events to account for the millennial rate. The relatively fast slip rate of the SF over the past 21 ka is unlikely to have persisted over longer timescales and might reflect spatiotemporal variations in deformation rates within kinematically-linked fault systems within Central Anatolia, or a transient perturbation to the local stress field or fault strength. Such perturbation might have been related to climatically controlled changes in surface and near-surface loads and by interactions among the different tectonic processes that have been proposed to drive the overall slow uplift and associated extension in the Central Anatolian Plateau.
The African Humid Period (AHP) between similar to 15 and 5.5 cal. kyr BP caused major environmental change in East Africa, including filling of the Suguta Valley in the northern Kenya Rift with an extensive (similar to 2150 km(2)), deep (similar to 300 m) lake. Interfingering fluvio-lacustrine deposits of the Baragoi paleo-delta provide insights into the lake-level history and how erosion rates changed during this time, as revealed by delta-volume estimates and the concentration of cosmogenic Be-10 in fluvial sand. Erosion rates derived from delta-volume estimates range from 0.019 to 0.03 mm yr(-1). Be-10-derived paleo-erosion rates at similar to 11.8 cal. kyr BP ranged from 0.035 to 0.086 mm yr(-1), and were 2.7 to 6.6 times faster than at present. In contrast, at similar to 8.7 cal. kyr BP, erosion rates were only 1.8 times faster than at present. Because Be-10-derived erosion rates integrate over several millennia; we modeled the erosion-rate history that best explains the 10Be data using established non-linear equations that describe in situ cosmogenic isotope production and decay. Two models with different temporal constraints (15-6.7 and 12-6.7 kyr) suggest erosion rates that were 25 to 300 times higher than the initial erosion rate (pre-delta formation). That pulse of high erosion rates was short (similar to 4 kyr or less) and must have been followed by a rapid decrease in rates while climate remained humid to reach the modern Be-10-based erosion rate of,similar to 0.013 mm yr(-1). Our simulations also flag the two highest Be-10-derived erosion rates at 11.8 kyr BP related to nonuniform catchment erosion. These changes in erosion rates and processes during the AHP may reflect a strong increase in precipitation, runoff, and erosivity at the arid-to-humid transition either at 15 or similar to 12 cal. kyr BP, before the landscape stabilized again, possibly due to increased soil production and denser vegetation.
The segmentation of major fault systems in subduction zones controls earthquake magnitude and location, but the causes for the existence of segment boundaries and the relationships between long-term deformation and the extent of earthquake rupture, are poorly understood. We compare permanent and seismic-cycle deformation patterns along the rupture zone of the 2010 Maule earthquake (M8.8), which ruptured 500 km of the Chile subduction margin. We analyzed the morphology of MIS-5 marine terraces using LiDAR topography and established their chronology and coeval origin with twelve luminescence ages, stratigraphy and geomorphic correlation, obtaining a virtually continuous distribution of uplift rates along the entire rupture zone. The mean uplift rate for these terraces is 0.5 m/ka. This value is exceeded in three areas, which have experienced rapid emergence of up to 1.6 m/ka; they are located at the northern, central, and southern sectors of the rupture zone, referred to as Topocalma, Carranza and Arauco, respectively. The three sectors correlate with boundaries of eight great earthquakes dating back to 1730. The Topocalma and Arauco sectors, located at the boundaries of the 2010 rupture, consist of broad zones of crustal warping with wavelengths of 60 and 90 km, respectively. These two regions coincide with the axes of oroclinal bending of the entire Andean margin and correlate with changes in curvature of the plate interface. Rapid uplift at Carranza, in turn, is of shorter wavelength and associated with footwall flexure of three crustal-scale normal faults. The uplift rate at Carranza is inversely correlated with plate coupling as well as with coseismic slip, suggesting permanent deformation may accumulate interseismically. We propose that the zones of upwarping at Arauco and Topocalma reflect changes in frictional properties of the megathrust resulting in barriers to the propagation of great earthquakes. Slip during the 1960 (M9.5) and 2010 events overlapped with the similar to 90-km-long zone of rapid uplift at Arauco; similarly, slip in 2010 and 1906 extended across the similar to 60-km-long section of the megathrust at Topocalma, but this area was completely breached by the 1730 (M similar to 9) event, which propagated southward until Carranza. Both Arauco and Topocalma show evidence of sustained rapid uplift since at least the middle Pleistocene. These two sectors might thus constitute discrete seismotectonic boundaries restraining most, but not all great earthquake ruptures. Based on our observations, such barriers might be breached during multi-segment super-cycle events. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
This work explores the control of fore-arc structure on segmentation of megathrust earthquake ruptures using coastal geomorphic markers. The Arauco-Nahuelbuta region at the south-central Chile margin constitutes an anomalous fore- arc sector in terms of topography, geology, and exhumation, located within the overlap between the Concepcion and Valdivia megathrust segments. This boundary, however, is only based on similar to 500 years of historical records. We integrate deformed marine terraces dated by cosmogenic nuclides, syntectonic sediments, published fission track data, seismic reflection profiles, and microseismicity to analyze this earthquake boundary over 10(2) -10(6) years. Rapid exhumation of Nahuelbuta's dome-like core started at 4 +/- 1.2 Ma, coeval with inversion of the adjacent Arauco basin resulting in emergence of the Arauco peninsula. Here, similarities between topography, spatiotemporal trends in fission track ages, Pliocene-Pleistocene growth strata, and folded marine terraces suggest that margin-parallel shortening has dominated since Pliocene time. This shortening likely results from translation of a fore-arc sliver or microplate, decoupled from South America by an intra-arc strike-slip fault. Microplate collision against a buttress leads to localized uplift at Arauco accrued by deep-seated reverse faults, as well as incipient oroclinal bending. The extent of the Valdivia segment, which ruptured last in 1960 with an M-w 9.5 event, equals the inferred microplate. We propose that mechanical homogeneity of the fore-arc microplate delimits the Valdivia segment and that a marked discontinuity in the continental basement at Arauco acts as an inhomogeneous barrier controlling nucleation and propagation of 1960-type ruptures. As microplate-related deformation occurs since the Pliocene, we propose that this earthquake boundary and the extent of the Valdivia segment are spatially stable seismotectonic features at million year scale.
Surface movements during the largest subduction zone earthquakes commonly drown coastlines. Yet, on geological timescales, coastlines above subduction zones uplift. Here I use a morphometric analysis combined with a numerical model of landscape evolution to estimate uplift rates along the central Andean rasa-a low-relief coastal surface bounded by a steep cliff formed by wave erosion. I find that the rasa has experienced steady uplift of 0.13 +/- 0.04 mm per year along a stretch of more than 2,000 km in length, during the Quaternary. These long-term uplift rates do not correlate with Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of interseismic movements over the decadal scale, which implies that permanent uplift is not predominantly accumulated during the interseismic period. Instead, the rate of rasa uplift correlates with slip during earthquakes straddling the crust-mantle transition, the Moho. Such deeper earthquakes with magnitude 7 to 8 that occurred between 1995 and 2012 resulted in decimetres of coastal uplift. Slip during these earthquakes is located below the locked portion of the plate interface, and therefore may translate into permanent deformation of the overlying plate, where it causes uplift of the coastline. Thus, lower parts of the plate boundary are stably segmented over hundreds to millions of years. I suggest the coastline marks the surface expression of the transition between the shallow, locked seismogenic domain and the deeper, conditionally stable domain where modest earthquakes build up topography.
Vegetated dunes are recognized as important natural barriers that shelter inland ecosystems and coastlines suffering daily erosive impacts of the sea and extreme events, such as tsunamis. However, societal responses to erosion and shoreline retreat often result in man-made coastal defence structures that cover part of the intertidal and upper shore zones causing coastal squeeze and habitat loss, especially for upper shore biota, such as dune plants. Coseismic uplift of up to 2.0 m on the Peninsula de Arauco (South central Chile, ca. 37.5 degrees S) caused by the 2010 Maule earthquake drastically modified the coastal landscape, including major increases in the width of uplifted beaches and the immediate conversion of mid to low sandy intertidal habitat to supralittoral sandy habitat above the reach of average tides and waves. To investigate the early stage responses in species richness, cover and across-shore distribution of the hitherto absent dune plants, we surveyed two formerly intertidal armoured sites and a nearby intertidal unarmoured site on a sandy beach located on the uplifted coast of Llico (Peninsula de Arauco) over two years. Almost 2 years after the 2010 earthquake, dune plants began to recruit, then rapidly grew and produced dune hummocks in the new upper beach habitats created by uplift at the three sites. Initial vegetation responses were very similar among sites. However, over the course of the study, the emerging vegetated dunes of the armoured sites suffered a slowdown in the development of the spatial distribution process, and remained impoverished in species richness and cover compared to the unarmoured site. Our results suggest that when released from the effects of coastal squeeze, vegetated dunes can recover without restoration actions. However, subsequent human activities and management of newly created beach and dune habitats can significantly alter the trajectory of vegetated dune development. Management that integrates the effects of natural and human induced disturbances, and promotes the development of dune vegetation as natural barriers can provide societal and conservation benefits in coastal ecosystems.
Most of the deformation associated with the seismic cycle in subduction zones occurs offshore and has been therefore difficult to quantify with direct observations at millennial timescales. Here we study millennial deformation associated with an active splay-fault system in the Arauco Bay area off south central Chile. We describe hitherto unrecognized drowned shorelines using high-resolution multibeam bathymetry, geomorphic, sedimentologic, and paleontologic observations and quantify uplift rates using a Landscape Evolution Model. Along a margin-normal profile, uplift rates are 1.3m/ka near the edge of the continental shelf, 1.5m/ka at the emerged Santa Maria Island, -0.1m/ka at the center of the Arauco Bay, and 0.3m/ka in the mainland. The bathymetry images a complex pattern of folds and faults representing the surface expression of the crustal-scale Santa Maria splay-fault system. We modeled surface deformation using two different structural scenarios: deep-reaching normal faults and deep-reaching reverse faults with shallow extensional structures. Our preferred model comprises a blind reverse fault extending from 3km depth down to the plate interface at 16km that slips at a rate between 3.0 and 3.7m/ka. If all the splay-fault slip occurs during every great megathrust earthquake, with a recurrence of similar to 150-200years, the fault would slip similar to 0.5m per event, equivalent to a magnitude similar to 6.4 earthquake. However, if the splay-fault slips only with a megathrust earthquake every similar to 1000years, the fault would slip similar to 3.7m per event, equivalent to a magnitude similar to 7.5 earthquake.