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The Sabzevar ophiolites mark the Neotethys suture in east-north-central Iran. The Sabzevar metamorphic rocks, as part of the Cretaceous Sabzevar ophiolitic complex, consist of blueschist, amphibolite and greenschist. The Sabzevar blueschists contain sodic amphibole, epidote, phengite, calcite +/- A omphacite +/- A quartz. The epidote amphibolite is composed of sodic-calcic amphibole, epidote, albite, phengite, quartz +/- A omphacite, ilmenite and titanite. The greenschist contains chlorite, plagioclase and pyrite, as main minerals. Thermobarometry of a blueschist yields a pressure of 13-15.5 kbar at temperatures of 420-500 A degrees C. Peak metamorphic temperature/depth ratios were low (similar to 12 A degrees C/km), consistent with metamorphism in a subduction zone. The presence of epidote in the blueschist shows that the rocks were metamorphosed entirely within the epidote stability field. Amphibole schist samples experienced pressures of 5-7 kbar and temperatures between 450 and 550 A degrees C. The presence of chlorite, actinolite, biotite and titanite indicate greenschist facies metamorphism. Chlorite, albite and biotite replacing garnet or glaucophane suggests temperatures of > 300 A degrees C for greenschist facies. The formation of high-pressure metamorphic rocks is related to north-east-dipping subduction of the Neotethys oceanic crust and subsequent closure during lower Eocene between the Central Iranian Micro-continent and Eurasia (North Iran).
One of the crucial components in seismic hazard analysis is the estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude and associated uncertainty. In the present study, the uncertainty related to the maximum expected magnitude mu is determined in terms of confidence intervals for an imposed level of confidence. Previous work by Salamat et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 174:763-777, 2017) shows the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible magnitude m(max) for high levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones of Iran. In this work, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude mu is calculated in a predefined finite time interval and imposed level of confidence. For this, we use a conceptual model based on a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitudes with constant b-value and calculate the posterior distribution of mu for the time interval T-f in future. We assume a stationary Poisson process in time and a Gutenberg-Richter relation for magnitudes. The upper bound of the magnitude confidence interval is calculated for different time intervals of 30, 50, and 100 years and imposed levels of confidence alpha = 0.5, 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01. The posterior distribution of waiting times T-f to the next earthquake with a given magnitude equal to 6.5, 7.0, and7.5 are calculated in each zone. In order to find the influence of declustering, we use the original and declustered version of the catalog. The earthquake catalog of the territory of Iran and surroundings are subdivided into six seismotectonic zones Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh, and Makran. We assume the maximum possible magnitude m(max) = 8.5 and calculate the upper bound of the confidence interval of mu in each zone. The results indicate that for short time intervals equal to 30 and 50 years and imposed levels of confidence 1 - alpha = 0.95 and 0.90, the probability distribution of mu is around mu = 7.16-8.23 in all seismic zones.
This paper offers a new theoretical framework for studying the problem of generations and social change in contemporary Iran. It offers a model which is called „articulation of cultural modes“. The paper agrees with Ronald Inglehart that ‘culture’ is now playing a more dominant role in the social formation of current societies, as ‘technology’ once did in the modern era. But it goes one step further by arguing that culture cannot be approached as a holistic concept building on a comprehensive theoretical framework.
The northward movement and collision of the Arabian plate with Eurasia generates compressive stresses and resulting shortening in Iran. Within the Alborz Mountains, North Iran, a complex and not well understood system of strike-slip and thrust faults accomodates a fundamental part of the NNE-SSW oriented shortening. On 28th of May 2004 the Mw 6.3 Baladeh earthquake hit the north-central Alborz Mountains. It is one of the rare and large events in this region in modern time and thus a seldom chance to study earthquake mechanisms and the local ongoing deformation processes. It also demonstrated the high vulnerability of this densily populated region.
This pre-registered study examined the prevalence and correlates of sexual aggression in a sample of 530 Iranians (322 women, 208 men) with a behaviorally specific questionnaire distinguishing between different coercive strategies, victim-perpetrator relationships, and sexual acts. Significantly more women (63.0%) than men (51.0%) experienced at least one incident of sexual aggression victimization since the age of 15 years, and significantly more men (37.0%) than women (13.4%) reported at least one incident of sexual aggression perpetration. In women and men, the experience of child sexual abuse predicted sexual victimization and sexual aggression perpetration after the age of 15 years, both directly and indirectly through higher engagement in risky sexual behavior. Greater endorsement of hostile masculinity among men explained additional variance in the prediction of sexual aggression perpetration. This research is a first step towards documenting and explaining high rates of sexual aggression victimization and perpetration among Iranian women and men, providing important information for sex education as well for the prevention of sexual aggression. However, to achieve these goals, we highlight the need for systematic actions in all educational, social, and legal sectors of Iranian society.
The M (w) 6.2 Baladeh earthquake occurred on 28 May 2004 in the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. This earthquake was the first strong shock in this intracontinental orogen for which digital regional broadband data are available. The Baladeh event provides a rare opportunity to study fault geometry and ongoing deformation processes using modern seismological methods. A joint inversion for hypocentres and a velocity model plus a surface-wave group dispersion curve analysis were used to obtain an adapted velocity model, customised for mid- and long-period waveform modelling. Based on the new velocity model, regional waveform data of the mainshock and larger aftershocks (M (w) a parts per thousand yen3.3) were inverted for moment tensors. For the Baladeh mainshock, this included inversion for kinematic parameters. All analysed earthquakes show dominant thrust mechanisms at depths between 14 and 26 km, with NW-SE striking fault planes. The mainshock ruptured a 28A degrees south-dipping area of 24 x 21 km along a north-easterly direction. The rupture plane of the mainshock does not coincide with the aftershock distribution, neither in map view nor with respect to depth. The considered aftershocks form two main clusters. The eastern cluster is associated with the mainshock. The western cluster does not appear to be connected with the rupture plane of the mainshock but, instead, indicates a second activated fault plane dipping at 85A degrees towards the north.
Aufgrund seines umstrittenen Atomprogramms ist der Iran ein Dauerbrenner in den Medien. Doch nicht nur deshalb sollte das Land Beachtung finden. Ahmad Naderi gewährt uns einen Blick auf die Geopolitik des Iran, der besonders für die in vielen arabischen Staaten unterdrückten Schiiten Orientierungspunkt sein will. Doch strebt das Land die Hegemonie in der Region an? Johannes Reissner (1949-2009) analysiert das Selbstverständnis des Iran und seine Verhaltensmuster. Sollte der Westen seine Politik überdenken?
This paper concerns the problem of predicting the maximum expected earthquake magnitude μ in a future time interval Tf given a catalog covering a time period T in the past. Different studies show the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_{ max } for high levels of confidence (Salamat et al. 2017). Therefore, m_{ max } should be better replaced by μ (Holschneider et al. 2011). In a previous study (Salamat et al. 2018), μ is estimated for an instrumental earthquake catalog of Iran from 1900 onwards with a constant level of completeness ( {m0 = 5.5} ). In the current study, the Bayesian methodology developed by Zöller et al. (2014, 2015) is applied for the purpose of predicting μ based on the catalog consisting of both historical and instrumental parts. The catalog is first subdivided into six subcatalogs corresponding to six seismotectonic zones, and each of those zone catalogs is subsequently subdivided according to changes in completeness level and magnitude uncertainty. For this, broad and small error distributions are considered for historical and instrumental earthquakes, respectively. We assume that earthquakes follow a Poisson process in time and Gutenberg-Richter law in the magnitude domain with a priori unknown a and b values which are first estimated by Bayes' theorem and subsequently used to estimate μ. Imposing different values of m_{ max } for different seismotectonic zones namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh and Makran, the results show considerable probabilities for the occurrence of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 7.5 in short Tf , whereas for long Tf, μ is almost equal to m_{ max }
The Mahneshan Metamorphic Complex (MMC) is one of the Precambrian terrains exposed in the northwest of Iran. The MMC underwent two main phases of deformation (D-1 and D-2) and at least two metamorphic events (M-1 and M-2). Critical metamorphic mineral assemblages in the metapelitic rocks testify to regional metamorphism under amphibolite-facies conditions. The dominant metamorphic mineral assemblage in metapelitic rocks (M-1) is muscovite, biotite I, Garnet I, staurolite, Andalusite I and sillimanite. Peak metamorphism took place at 600-620 degrees C and similar to 7 kbar, corresponding to a depth of ca. 24 km. This was followed by decompression during exhumation of the crustal rocks up to the surface. The decrease of temperature and pressure during exhumation produced retrograde metamorphic assemblages (M-2). Secondary phases such as garnet II biotite It. Andalusite II constrain the temperature and pressure of M, retrograde metamorphism to 520-560 degrees C and 2.5-3.5 kbar, respectively. The geothermal gradient obtained for the peak of metamorphism is 33 degrees C km(-1), which indicates that peak metamorphism was of Barrovian type and occurred under medium-pressure conditions. The MMC followed a 'clockwise' P T path during metamorphism, consistent with thermal relaxation following tectonic thickening. The bulk chemistry of the MMC metapelites shows that their protoliths were deposited at an active continental margin. Together with the presence of palaeo-suture zones and ophiolitic rocks around the high-grade metamorphic rocks of the MMC, these features suggest that the Iranian Precambrian basement formed by an island-arc type cratonization.
Der dritte Band der Potsdamer Textbücher befasst sich mit gesellschaftlichen Entwicklungen im konfliktreichen Nahen Osten. Die Zusammenstellung der Texte erfolgte sowohl mit Blick auf die anhaltende Kulturkreisdiskussion als auch hinsichtlich der Bemühungen um Stabilität in dieser Region. Hinzu kommen Analysen zur wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und den politischen Regimes in Israel, Palästina, Ägypten, im Jemen und Iran. Auszüge aus Verfassungen arabischer Staaten, statistische Angaben und eine Bibliographie vervollständigen das Textbuch.
Iranische Präsidentschaftswahlen sind immer für eine Überraschung gut. Noch eine Woche vor der Wahl dürften die wenigsten mit einem Erdrutschsieg Hassan Rouhanis gerechnet haben. Der neue Mann ist dabei ein Altbekannter. Zahlreiche Posten hat er in der Islamischen Republik bereits bekleidet und sich als Chefunterhändler auch im Ausland einen Namen gemacht. Welche Erwartungen werden an ihn gerichtet und welche Herausforderungen gilt es nun zu meistern?
Die vier Buchrezensionenum die Islamische Republik Iran spiegeln die ganze Bandbreite des Dilemmas im Umgang mit dem politisch gewichtigsten und auch umstrittensten Land im Nahen Osten wider. Sie zeigen die tiefe Spaltung, die in der Publizistik gegenüber diesem Land existiert; sei es in der Presse oder Fachliteratur.
Krieg in Sicht?
(2012)
Säbelrasseln und Bombendrohungen am Persischen Golf. Israelische Politiker sprechen sich für Angriffe auf iranische Nuklearanlagen aus, bevor es zu "spät" sei. US-Verteidigungsminister Panetta hält einen Angriff Israels auf den Iran im Frühling für wahrscheinlich, während sein Präsident abwiegelt: Israel habe noch keine Entscheidung getroffen, man müsse den Sanktionen mehr Zeit geben. Mittlerweile werden aber die Instrumente scharf gemacht. Die 5. Flotte überwacht den Golf; in der Region sind etwa 40.000 US-Soldaten stationiert. Der Iran setzt auf Seemanöver.
"Tatsächlich steht das offiziell verkündete Wahlergebnis nicht im Widerspruch zu einer im Mai landesweit durchgeführten Umfrage eines US-Forschungsinstituts. Dieses sah Ahmadinedschad klar vor seinem größten Konkurrenten Mussavi. Vermeintliche Quellen aus dem iranischen Innenministerium dagegen sprachen nach der Wahl von einem Erdrutschsieg Mussavis. Indizien für einen Betrug gibt es viele..."
Es brodelt in Iran, und das gewaltig! Doch nicht die Straße ist der Ort des Geschehens. Im Schatten der Berichterstattung über die arabischen Rebellionen vom Maghreb bis zum Golf wütet in der Islamischen Republik ein Kampf der Eliten. Diese haben sich im Zuge der grünen Bewegung Teile ihrer Körperschaft entledigt. Grün ist verwelkt; heute tobt ein neuer Machtkampf. Die neue Herausforderung kommt von unerwarteter Seite: aus den innersten Kreisen des Systems selbst. Unliebsam sind nunmehr alte Pfeiler des Regimes: Rafsanjani, Mashāi, aber allen voran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad!
Islamic movements in Iran
(2004)
The modernist Islamic Movement sought to reconcile modern values and Islamic faith and attempted to express these values through an Islamic discourse and to reform political, religious and educational institutions along modernist lines. However, such a movement in the Islamic Republic of Iran raised controversy among the traditional leadership and secular intellectual groups. The aim of this paper is to discuss how far modernist Islam could progress in an islamic republic with an old tradition.
For the first time when the new Islamic councils began their Operation, many intellectuals and politicians proclaimed that there would be no room for the young Islamic councils to proceed. In political terms, because of the new challenges between the rightists and leftists, many people had no hope to see the results of the councils. Still others believed that under the dominating ruling system of Iran there is no space for public opinion and participation in local decision-making. This paper focuses on the role of the Islamic Councils as a new form of social democracy, which decentralizes power and creates good local governance. The paper also discusses the obstacles for the Councils in the development of the region.
The Makran accretionary prism in SE Iran and SW Pakistan is one of the most extensive subduction accretions on Earth. It is characterized by intense folding, thrust faulting and dislocation of the Cenozoic units that consist of sedimentary, igneous and metamorphic rocks. Rock units forming the northern Makran ophiolites are amalgamated as a melange. Metamorphic rocks, including greenschist, amphibolite and blueschist, resulted from metamorphism of mafic rocks and serpentinites. In spite of the geodynamic significance of blueschist in this area, it has been rarely studied. Peak metamorphic phases of the northern Makran mafic blueschist in the Iranshahr area are glaucophane, phengite, quartz +/- omphacite+epidote. Post peak minerals are chlorite, albite and calcic amphibole. Blueschist facies metasedimentary rocks contain garnet, phengite, albite and epidote in the matrix and as inclusions in glaucophane. The calculated P-T pseudosection for a representative metabasic glaucophane schist yields peak pressure and temperature of 11.5-15kbar at 400-510 degrees C. These rocks experienced retrograde metamorphism from blueschist to greenschist facies (350-450 degrees C and 7-8kbar) during exhumation. A back arc basin was formed due to northward subduction of Neotethys under Eurasia (Lut block). Exhumation of the high-pressure metamorphic rocks in northern Makran occurred contemporarily with subduction. Several reverse faults played an important role in exhumation of the ophiolitic and HP-LT rocks. The presence of serpentinite shows the possible role of a serpentinite diapir for exhumation of the blueschist. A tectonic model is proposed here for metamorphism and exhumation of oceanic crust and accretionary sedimentary rocks of the Makran area. Vast accretion of subducted materials caused southward migration of the shore.
Die zehnten Präsidentschaftswahlen im Iran sorgten für einen Eklat. Ausgerechnet im Jubiläumsjahr, in dem man sich mit Stolz präsentieren wollte, erlebt die Islamische Republik ihren größten Legitimitätsverlust. Mit der Verkündung von Ahmadinedschads Wahlsieg löste das Regime eine Welle der Empörung aus, die bis heute nicht abgeklungen ist. Zwar konnten die Proteste den amtierenden Präsidenten nicht von seiner zweiten Amtszeit abhalten, doch der grüne Sommer hat seine Spuren in der Theokratie hinterlassen.
Die Frage nach einer veränderten Strategie des Westens im Atomkonflikt mit dem Iran ist wieder virulent. Bereits auf seiner ersten Pressekonferenz hat der als gemäßigt geltende neue iranische Präsident Hassan Ruhani mehr Transparenz über das Atomprogramm seines Landes in Aussicht gestellt. Ob sich damit ein Fenster der Möglichkeiten öffnet, den Konflikt doch noch einvernehmlich und vor allem friedlich zu lösen, muss sich erweisen.