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Glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayas–Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have grown rapidly in number and area in past decades, and some dozens have drained in catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Estimating regional susceptibility of glacial lakes has largely relied on qualitative assessments by experts, thus motivating a more systematic and quantitative appraisal. Before the backdrop of current climate-change projections and the potential of elevation-dependent warming, an objective and regionally consistent assessment is urgently needed. We use an inventory of 3390 moraine-dammed lakes and their documented outburst history in the past four decades to test whether elevation, lake area and its rate of change, glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality are useful inputs to a probabilistic classification model. We implement these candidate predictors in four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the posterior susceptibility to GLOFs. We find that mostly larger lakes have been more prone to GLOFs in the past four decades regardless of the elevation band in which they occurred. We also find that including the regional average glacier-mass balance improves the model classification. In contrast, changes in lake area and monsoonality play ambiguous roles. Our study provides first quantitative evidence that GLOF susceptibility in the HKKHN scales with lake area, though less so with its dynamics. Our probabilistic prognoses offer improvement compared to a random classification based on average GLOF frequency. Yet they also reveal some major uncertainties that have remained largely unquantified previously and that challenge the applicability of single models. Ensembles of multiple models could be a viable alternative for more accurately classifying the susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes to GLOFs.
Pokhara (ca. 850 m a.s.l.), Nepal's second-largest city, lies at the foot of the Higher Himalayas and has more than tripled its population in the past 3 decades. Construction materials are in high demand in rapidly expanding built-up areas, and several informal settlements cater to unregulated sand and gravel mining in the Pokhara Valley's main river, the Seti Khola. This river is fed by the Sabche glacier below Annapurna III (7555 m a.s.l.), some 35 km upstream of the city, and traverses one of the steepest topographic gradients in the Himalayas. In May 2012 a sudden flood caused >70 fatalities and intense damage along this river and rekindled concerns about flood risk management. We estimate the flow dynamics and inundation depths of flood scenarios using the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System). We simulate the potential impacts of peak discharges from 1000 to 10 000 m3 s−1 on land cover based on high-resolution Maxar satellite imagery and OpenStreetMap data (buildings and road network). We also trace the dynamics of two informal settlements near Kaseri and Yamdi with high potential flood impact from RapidEye, PlanetScope, and Google Earth imagery of the past 2 decades. Our hydrodynamic simulations highlight several sites of potential hydraulic ponding that would largely affect these informal settlements and sites of sand and gravel mining. These built-up areas grew between 3- and 20-fold, thus likely raising local flood exposure well beyond changes in flood hazard. Besides these drastic local changes, about 1 % of Pokhara's built-up urban area and essential rural road network is in the highest-hazard zones highlighted by our flood simulations. Our results stress the need to adapt early-warning strategies for locally differing hydrological and geomorphic conditions in this rapidly growing urban watershed.
High-mountain regions provide valuable ecosystem services, including food, water, and energy production, to more than 900 million people worldwide. Projections hold, that this population number will rapidly increase in the next decades, accompanied by a continued urbanisation of cities located in mountain valleys. One of the manifestations of this ongoing socio-economic change of mountain societies is a rise in settlement areas and transportation infrastructure while an increased power need fuels the construction of hydropower plants along rivers in the high-mountain regions of the world. However, physical processes governing the cryosphere of these regions are highly sensitive to changes in climate and a global warming will likely alter the conditions in the headwaters of high-mountain rivers. One of the potential implications of this change is an increase in frequency and magnitude of outburst floods – highly dynamic flows capable of carrying large amounts of water and sediments. Sudden outbursts from lakes formed behind natural dams are complex geomorphological processes and are often part of a hazard cascade. In contrast to other types of natural hazards in high-alpine areas, for example landslides or avalanches, outburst floods are highly infrequent. Therefore, observations and data describing for example the mode of outburst or the hydraulic properties of the downstream propagating flow are very limited, which is a major challenge in contemporary (glacial) lake outburst flood research. Although glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and landslide-dammed lake outburst floods (LLOFs) are rare, a number of documented events caused high fatality counts and damage. The highest documented losses due to outburst floods since the start of the 20th century were induced by only a few high-discharge events. Thus, outburst floods can be a significant hazard to downvalley communities and infrastructure in high-mountain regions worldwide.
This thesis focuses on the Greater Himalayan region, a vast mountain belt stretching across 0.89 million km2. Although potentially hundreds of outburst floods have occurred there since the beginning of the 20th century, data on these events is still scarce. Projections of cryospheric change, including glacier-mass wastage and permafrost degradation, will likely result in an overall increase of the water volume stored in meltwater lakes as well as the destabilisation of mountain slopes in the Greater Himalayan region. Thus, the potential for outburst floods to affect the increasingly more densely populated valleys of this mountain belt is also likely to increase in the future. A prime example of one of these valleys is the Pokhara valley in Nepal, which is drained by the Seti Khola, a river crossing one of the steepest topographic gradients in the Himalayas. This valley is also home to Nepal’s second largest, rapidly growing city, Pokhara, which currently has a population of more than half a million people – some of which live in informal settlements within the floodplain of the Seti Khola. Although there is ample evidence for past outburst floods along this river in recent and historic times, these events have hardly been quantified.
The main motivation of my thesis is to address the data scarcity on past and potential future outburst floods in the Greater Himalayan region, both at a regional and at a local scale. For the former, I compiled an inventory of >3,000 moraine-dammed lakes, of which about 1% had a documented sudden failure in the past four decades. I used this data to test whether a number of predictors that have been widely applied in previous GLOF assessments are statistically relevant when estimating past GLOF susceptibility. For this, I set up four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models, in which I explored the credibility of the predictors lake area, lake-area dynamics, lake elevation, parent-glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality. By using a hierarchical approach consisting of two levels, this probabilistic framework also allowed for spatial variability on GLOF susceptibility across the vast study area, which until now had not been considered in studies of this scale. The model results suggest that in the Nyainqentanglha and Eastern Himalayas – regions with strong negative glacier-mass balances – lakes have been more prone to release GLOFs than in regions with less negative or even stable glacier-mass balances. Similarly, larger lakes in larger catchments had, on average, a higher probability to have had a GLOF in the past four decades. Yet, monsoonality, lake elevation, and lake-area dynamics were more ambiguous. This challenges the credibility of a lake’s rapid growth in surface area as an indicator of a pending outburst; a metric that has been applied to regional GLOF assessments worldwide.
At a local scale, my thesis aims to overcome data scarcity concerning the flow characteristics of the catastrophic May 2012 flood along the Seti Khola, which caused 72 fatalities, as well as potentially much larger predecessors, which deposited >1 km³ of sediment in the Pokhara valley between the 12th and 14th century CE. To reconstruct peak discharges, flow depths, and flow velocities of the 2012 flood, I mapped the extents of flood sediments from RapidEye satellite imagery and used these as a proxy for inundation limits. To constrain the latter for the Mediaeval events, I utilised outcrops of slackwater deposits in the fills of tributary valleys. Using steady-state hydrodynamic modelling for a wide range of plausible scenarios, from meteorological (1,000 m³ s-1) to cataclysmic outburst floods (600,000 m³ s-1), I assessed the likely initial discharges of the recent and the Mediaeval floods based on the lowest mismatch between sedimentary evidence and simulated flood limits. One-dimensional HEC-RAS simulations suggest, that the 2012 flood most likely had a peak discharge of 3,700 m³ s-1 in the upper Seti Khola and attenuated to 500 m³ s-1 when arriving in Pokhara’s suburbs some 15 km downstream.
Simulations of flow in two-dimensions with orders of magnitude higher peak discharges in ANUGA show extensive backwater effects in the main tributary valleys. These backwater effects match the locations of slackwater deposits and, hence, attest for the flood character of Mediaeval sediment pulses. This thesis provides first quantitative proof for the hypothesis, that the latter were linked to earthquake-triggered outbursts of large former lakes in the headwaters of the Seti Khola – producing floods with peak discharges of >50,000 m³ s-1.
Building on this improved understanding of past floods along the Seti Khola, my thesis continues with an analysis of the impacts of potential future outburst floods on land cover, including built-up areas and infrastructure mapped from high-resolution satellite and OpenStreetMap data. HEC-RAS simulations of ten flood scenarios, with peak discharges ranging from 1,000 to 10,000 m³ s-1, show that the relative inundation hazard is highest in Pokhara’s north-western suburbs. There, the potential effects of hydraulic ponding upstream of narrow gorges might locally sustain higher flow depths. Yet, along this reach, informal settlements and gravel mining activities are close to the active channel. By tracing the construction dynamics in two of these potentially affected informal settlements on multi-temporal RapidEye, PlanetScope, and Google Earth imagery, I found that exposure increased locally between three- to twentyfold in just over a decade (2008 to 2021).
In conclusion, this thesis provides new quantitative insights into the past controls on the susceptibility of glacial lakes to sudden outburst at a regional scale and the flow dynamics of propagating flood waves released by past events at a local scale, which can aid future hazard assessments on transient scales in the Greater Himalayan region. My subsequent exploration of the impacts of potential future outburst floods to exposed infrastructure and (informal) settlements might provide valuable inputs to anticipatory assessments of multiple risks in the Pokhara valley.
Research on problem solving offers insights into how humans process task-related information and which strategies they use (Newell and Simon, 1972; Öllinger et al., 2014). Problem solving can be defined as the search for possible changes in one's mind (Kahneman, 2003). In a recent study, Adams et al. (2021) assessed whether the predominant problem solving strategy when making changes involves adding or subtracting elements. In order to do this, they used several examples of simple problems, such as editing text or making visual patterns symmetrical, either in naturalistic settings or on-line. The essence of the authors' findings is a strong preference to add rather than subtract elements across a diverse range of problems, including the stabilizing of artifacts, creating symmetrical patterns, or editing texts. More specifically, they succeeded in demonstrating that “participants were less likely to identify advantageous subtractive changes when the task did not (vs. did) cue them to consider subtraction, when they had only one opportunity (vs. several) to recognize the shortcomings of an additive search strategy or when they were under a higher (vs. lower) cognitive load” (Adams et al., 2021, p. 258).
Addition and subtraction are generally defined as de-contextualized mathematical operations using abstract symbols (Russell, 1903/1938). Nevertheless, understanding of both symbols and operations is informed by everyday activities, such as making or breaking objects (Lakoff and Núñez, 2000; Fischer and Shaki, 2018). The universal attribution of “addition bias” or “subtraction neglect” to problem solving activities is perhaps a convenient shorthand but it overlooks influential framing effects beyond those already acknowledged in the report and the accompanying commentary (Meyvis and Yoon, 2021).
Most importantly, while Adams et al.'s study addresses an important issue, their very method of verbally instructing participants, together with lack of control over several known biases, might render their findings less than conclusive. Below, we discuss our concerns that emerged from the identified biases, namely those regarding the instructions and the experimental materials. Moreover, we refer to research from mathematical cognition that provides new insights into Adams et al.'s findings.
Commentary
(2015)
Nach wie vor ist es der internationalen Gemeinschaft nicht gelungen, eine Lösung für die afghanische Krise zu präsentieren. Dabei macht die gegenwärtige Situation eine Beendigung des Kriegszustands sowie die Aufnahme von konstruktiven Verhandlungen unerlässlich. Die Genfer Verhandlungen der 1980er Jahre über den Abzug der Sowjetarmee aus Afghanistan könnten hierbei als Vorbild dienen.
In dieser Arbeit werden nichtlineare Kopplungsmechanismen von akustischen Oszillatoren untersucht, die zu Synchronisation führen können. Aufbauend auf die Fragestellungen vorangegangener Arbeiten werden mit Hilfe theoretischer und experimenteller Studien sowie mit Hilfe numerischer Simulationen die Elemente der Tonentstehung in der Orgelpfeife und die Mechanismen der gegenseitigen Wechselwirkung von Orgelpfeifen identifiziert. Daraus wird erstmalig ein vollständig auf den aeroakustischen und fluiddynamischen Grundprinzipien basierendes nichtlinear gekoppeltes Modell selbst-erregter Oszillatoren für die Beschreibung des Verhaltens zweier wechselwirkender Orgelpfeifen entwickelt. Die durchgeführten Modellrechnungen werden mit den experimentellen Befunden verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Tonentstehung und die Kopplungsmechanismen von Orgelpfeifen durch das entwickelte Oszillatormodell in weiten Teilen richtig beschrieben werden. Insbesondere kann damit die Ursache für den nichtlinearen Zusammenhang von Kopplungsstärke und Synchronisation des gekoppelten Zwei-Pfeifen Systems, welcher sich in einem nichtlinearen Verlauf der Arnoldzunge darstellt, geklärt werden. Mit den gewonnenen Erkenntnissen wird der Einfluss des Raumes auf die Tonentstehung bei Orgelpfeifen betrachtet. Dafür werden numerische Simulationen der Wechselwirkung einer Orgelpfeife mit verschiedenen Raumgeometrien, wie z. B. ebene, konvexe, konkave, und gezahnte Geometrien, exemplarisch untersucht. Auch der Einfluss von Schwellkästen auf die Tonentstehung und die Klangbildung der Orgelpfeife wird studiert. In weiteren, neuartigen Synchronisationsexperimenten mit identisch gestimmten Orgelpfeifen, sowie mit Mixturen wird die Synchronisation für verschiedene, horizontale und vertikale Pfeifenabstände in der Ebene der Schallabstrahlung, untersucht. Die dabei erstmalig beobachteten räumlich isotropen Unstetigkeiten im Schwingungsverhalten der gekoppelten Pfeifensysteme, deuten auf abstandsabhängige Wechsel zwischen gegen- und gleichphasigen Sychronisationsregimen hin. Abschließend wird die Möglichkeit dokumentiert, das Phänomen der Synchronisation zweier Orgelpfeifen durch numerische Simulationen, also der Behandlung der kompressiblen Navier-Stokes Gleichungen mit entsprechenden Rand- und Anfangsbedingungen, realitätsnah abzubilden. Auch dies stellt ein Novum dar.
In dieser Arbeit werden die Effekte der Synchronisation nichtlinearer, akustischer Oszillatoren am Beispiel zweier Orgelpfeifen untersucht. Aus vorhandenen, experimentellen Messdaten werden die typischen Merkmale der Synchronisation extrahiert und dargestellt. Es folgt eine detaillierte Analyse der Übergangsbereiche in das Synchronisationsplateau, der Phänomene während der Synchronisation, als auch das Austreten aus der Synchronisationsregion beider Orgelpfeifen, bei verschiedenen Kopplungsstärken. Die experimentellen Befunde werfen Fragestellungen nach der Kopplungsfunktion auf. Dazu wird die Tonentstehung in einer Orgelpfeife untersucht. Mit Hilfe von numerischen Simulationen der Tonentstehung wird der Frage nachgegangen, welche fluiddynamischen und aero-akustischen Ursachen die Tonentstehung in der Orgelpfeife hat und inwiefern sich die Mechanismen auf das Modell eines selbsterregten akustischen Oszillators abbilden lässt. Mit der Methode des Coarse Graining wird ein Modellansatz formuliert.
The echo chamber model describes the development of groups in heterogeneous social networks. By heterogeneous social network we mean a set of individuals, each of whom represents exactly one opinion. The existing relationships between individuals can then be represented by a graph. The echo chamber model is a time-discrete model which, like a board game, is played in rounds. In each round, an existing relationship is randomly and uniformly selected from the network and the two connected individuals interact. If the opinions of the individuals involved are sufficiently similar, they continue to move closer together in their opinions, whereas in the case of opinions that are too far apart, they break off their relationship and one of the individuals seeks a new relationship. In this paper we examine the building blocks of this model. We start from the observation that changes in the structure of relationships in the network can be described by a system of interacting particles in a more abstract space.
These reflections lead to the definition of a new abstract graph that encompasses all possible relational configurations of the social network. This provides us with the geometric understanding necessary to analyse the dynamic components of the echo chamber model in Part III. As a first step, in Part 7, we leave aside the opinions of the inidividuals and assume that the position of the edges changes with each move as described above, in order to obtain a basic understanding of the underlying dynamics. Using Markov chain theory, we find upper bounds on the speed of convergence of an associated Markov chain to its unique stationary distribution and show that there are mutually identifiable networks that are not apparent in the dynamics under analysis, in the sense that the stationary distribution of the associated Markov chain gives equal weight to these networks.
In the reversible cases, we focus in particular on the explicit form of the stationary distribution as well as on the lower bounds of the Cheeger constant to describe the convergence speed.
The final result of Section 8, based on absorbing Markov chains, shows that in a reduced version of the echo chamber model, a hierarchical structure of the number of conflicting relations can be identified.
We can use this structure to determine an upper bound on the expected absorption time, using a quasi-stationary distribution. This hierarchy of structure also provides a bridge to classical theories of pure death processes. We conclude by showing how future research can exploit this link and by discussing the importance of the results as building blocks for a full theoretical understanding of the echo chamber model. Finally, Part IV presents a published paper on the birth-death process with partial catastrophe. The paper is based on the explicit calculation of the first moment of a catastrophe. This first part is entirely based on an analytical approach to second degree recurrences with linear coefficients. The convergence to 0 of the resulting sequence as well as the speed of convergence are proved. On the other hand, the determination of the upper bounds of the expected value of the population size as well as its variance and the difference between the determined upper bound and the actual value of the expected value. For these results we use almost exclusively the theory of ordinary nonlinear differential equations.
Das Zentrum für Lehrerbildung und Bildungsforschung (ZeLB) verantwortet im Projekt „PSI-Potsdam“ die Unterstützung der Qualifizierung in der Medienbildung/Digitalisierung der Lehrkräftebildung an der Universität Potsdam. Der Schwerpunkt der Tätigkeit lag zunächst auf der mediendidaktischen Qualifizierung und wurde ab der zweiten Förderphase des Programms 2018 mit Akzentuierung auf Herausforderungen und Chancen von Digitalisierung für das Lehren und Lernen in der Lehrkräftebildung fortgeführt. In diesem Beitrag werden die Entwicklungen und Beiträge in Bezug auf die digitale Medienbildung und Digitalisierung an der Universität Potsdam für die Lehrkräftebildung dargestellt. Weiterführend werden Perspektiven aufgezeigt, wie zukünftig digitale Medienbildung in der universitären Lehrkräftebildung verankert werden kann.
This paper deals with the teaching of grammar in the English as a foreign language (EFL) classroom. In this context, a course book (English G 21 A2) is examined in regard to whether it is compatible with current theories about second language acquisition (SLA).
At the beginning of this paper, views on grammar teaching from the past and the present are summarized and this is followed by an analysis of the current curriculum concerning its guidelines for grammar teaching in the foreign language classroom. This analysis concludes that the curriculum of Brandenburg hardly gives any recommendations regarding the question of which grammatical phenomena should to be taught. This explains, at least partly, the important position course books take in the foreign language classroom. Teachers use them as a source of material as well has a guideline for which topics can be taught and in which order.
The following part gives an overview of cognitive models of SLA and foreign language teaching, among others Krashen’s Monitor Hypothesis, R. Ellis’ Weak Interface Model and Pienemann’s Processability Theory. On the basis of these models criteria for the ideal design of a course book, which would support grammar teaching according to current findings, are developed. Among those criteria are the offering of a lot of input in the target language, provision of practice activities and consciousness-raising activities, taking into consideration the sequence of acquisition and the provision of a diagnostic tool which enables the students to find out in which areas of the target language they need to improve. Furthermore, the inclusion of opportunities for (individual) revision is regarded as essential. All of those criteria are of course given under the reservation that the influence of course books on the happenings in the classroom is restricted as the final decisions are made by the teacher in the teaching situation.
In the analysis, one communicative intention which is usually a topic in the English lessons between the third and sixth year of learning is focused on. This communicative intention is talking about the future. First, the possibilities to express futurity in the English language are analysed and reduced for the use in teaching. The chosen course book is then described and analysed and the way the book deals with the topic of talking about the future is compared to the criteria which where specified earlier in the paper. This comparison showed that the book is compatible with SLA theories in many ways (e.g. concerning the explanations of grammatical structures) but that there is still room for improvement (e.g. concerning the amount of input and the number of consciousness-raising activities).
Hardy inequalities on graphs
(2024)
The dissertation deals with a central inequality of non-linear potential theory, the Hardy inequality. It states that the non-linear energy functional can be estimated from below by a pth power of a weighted p-norm, p>1. The energy functional consists of a divergence part and an arbitrary potential part. Locally summable infinite graphs were chosen as the underlying space. Previous publications on Hardy inequalities on graphs have mainly considered the special case p=2, or locally finite graphs without a potential part.
Two fundamental questions now arise quite naturally: For which graphs is there a Hardy inequality at all? And, if it exists, is there a way to obtain an optimal weight? Answers to these questions are given in Theorem 10.1 and Theorem 12.1. Theorem 10.1 gives a number of characterizations; among others, there is a Hardy inequality on a graph if and only if there is a Green's function. Theorem 12.1 gives an explicit formula to compute optimal Hardy weights for locally finite graphs under some additional technical assumptions. Examples show that Green's functions are good candidates to be used in the formula.
Emphasis is also placed on illustrating the theory with examples. The focus is on natural numbers, Euclidean lattices, trees and star graphs. Finally, a non-linear version of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and a Rellich inequality are derived from the Hardy inequality.
Molecules are often naturally embedded in a complex environment. As a consequence, characteristic properties of a molecular subsystem can be substantially altered or new properties emerge due to interactions between molecular and environmental degrees of freedom. The present thesis is concerned with the numerical study of quantum dynamical and stationary properties of molecular vibrational systems embedded in selected complex environments.
In the first part, we discuss "strong-coupling" model scenarios for molecular vibrations interacting with few quantized electromagnetic field modes of an optical Fabry-Pérot cavity. We thoroughly elaborate on properties of emerging "vibrational polariton" light-matter hybrid states and examine the relevance of the dipole self-energy. Further, we identify cavity-induced quantum effects and an emergent dynamical resonance in a cavity-altered thermal isomerization model, which lead to significant suppression of thermal reaction rates. Moreover, for a single rovibrating diatomic molecule in an optical cavity, we observe non-adiabatic signatures in dynamics due to "vibro-polaritonic conical intersections" and discuss spectroscopically accessible "rovibro-polaritonic" light-matter hybrid states.
In the second part, we study a weakly coupled but numerically challenging quantum mechanical adsorbate-surface model system comprising a few thousand surface modes. We introduce an efficient construction scheme for a "hierarchical effective mode" approach to reduce the number of surface modes in a controlled manner. In combination with the multilayer multiconfigurational time-dependent Hartree (ML-MCTDH) method, we examine the vibrational adsorbate relaxation dynamics from different excited adsorbate states by solving the full non-Markovian system-bath dynamics for the characteristic relaxation time scale. We examine half-lifetime scaling laws from vibrational populations and identify prominent non-Markovian signatures as deviations from Markovian reduced system density matrix theory in vibrational coherences, system-bath entanglement and energy transfer dynamics.
In the final part of this thesis, we approach the dynamics and spectroscopy of vibronic model systems at finite temperature by formulating the ML-MCTDH method in the non-stochastic framework of thermofield dynamics. We apply our method to thermally-altered ultrafast internal conversion in the well-known vibronic coupling model of pyrazine. Numerically beneficial representations of multilayer wave functions ("ML-trees") are identified for different temperature regimes, which allow us to access thermal effects on both electronic and vibrational dynamics as well as spectroscopic properties for several pyrazine models.