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- Institut für Geowissenschaften (3333) (remove)
Throughout the last ~3 million years, the Earth's climate system was characterised by cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. The current warm period, the Holocene, is comparably stable and stands out from this long-term cyclicality. However, since the industrial revolution, the climate has been increasingly affected by a human-induced increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. While instrumental observations are used to describe changes over the past ~200 years, indirect observations via proxy data are the main source of information beyond this instrumental era. These data are indicators of past climatic conditions, stored in palaeoclimate archives around the Earth. The proxy signal is affected by processes independent of the prevailing climatic conditions. In particular, for sedimentary archives such as marine sediments and polar ice sheets, material may be redistributed during or after the initial deposition and subsequent formation of the archive. This leads to noise in the records challenging reliable reconstructions on local or short time scales. This dissertation characterises the initial deposition of the climatic signal and quantifies the resulting archive-internal heterogeneity and its influence on the observed proxy signal to improve the representativity and interpretation of climate reconstructions from marine sediments and ice cores.
To this end, the horizontal and vertical variation in radiocarbon content of a box-core from the South China Sea is investigated. The three-dimensional resolution is used to quantify the true uncertainty in radiocarbon age estimates from planktonic foraminifera with an extensive sampling scheme, including different sample volumes and replicated measurements of batches of small and large numbers of specimen. An assessment on the variability stemming from sediment mixing by benthic organisms reveals strong internal heterogeneity. Hence, sediment mixing leads to substantial time uncertainty of proxy-based reconstructions with error terms two to five times larger than previously assumed.
A second three-dimensional analysis of the upper snowpack provides insights into the heterogeneous signal deposition and imprint in snow and firn. A new study design which combines a structure-from-motion photogrammetry approach with two-dimensional isotopic data is performed at a study site in the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The photogrammetry method reveals an intermittent character of snowfall, a layer-wise snow deposition with substantial contributions by wind-driven erosion and redistribution to the final spatially variable accumulation and illustrated the evolution of stratigraphic noise at the surface. The isotopic data show the preservation of stratigraphic noise within the upper firn column, leading to a spatially variable climate signal imprint and heterogeneous layer thicknesses. Additional post-depositional modifications due to snow-air exchange are also investigated, but without a conclusive quantification of the contribution to the final isotopic signature.
Finally, this characterisation and quantification of the complex signal formation in marine sediments and polar ice contributes to a better understanding of the signal content in proxy data which is needed to assess the natural climate variability during the Holocene.
Marine sedimentary archives are routinely used to reconstruct past environmental changes. In many cases, bioturbation and sedimentary mixing affect the proxy time-series and the age-depth relationship. While idealized models of bioturbation exist, they usually assume homogeneous mixing, thus that a single sample is representative for the sediment layer it is sampled from.
However, it is largely unknown to which extent this assumption holds for sediments used for paleoclimate reconstructions.
To shed light on
1) the age-depth relationship and its full uncertainty,
2) the magnitude of mixing processes affecting the downcore proxy variations, and
3) the representativity of the discrete sample for the sediment layer, we designed and performed a case study on South China Sea sediment material which was collected using a box corer and which covers the last glacial cycle.
Using the radiocarbon content of foraminiferal tests as a tracer of time, we characterize the spatial age-heterogeneity of sediments in a three-dimensional setup. In total, 118 radiocarbon measurements were performed on defined small- and large-volume bulk samples ( similar to 200 specimens each) to investigate the horizontal heterogeneity of the sediment. Additionally, replicated measurements on small numbers of specimens (10 x 5 specimens) were performed to assess the heterogeneity within a sample volume. Visual assessment of X-ray images and a quantitative assessment of the mixing strength show typical mixing from bioturbation corresponding to around 10 cm mixing depth.
Notably, our 3D radiocarbon distribution reveals that the horizontal heterogeneity (up to 1,250 years), contributing to the age uncertainty, is several times larger than the typically assumed radiocarbon based age-model error (single errors up to 250 years). Furthermore, the assumption of a perfectly bioturbated layer with no mixing underneath is not met.
Our analysis further demonstrates that the age-heterogeneity might be a function of sample size; smaller samples might contain single features from the incomplete mixing and are thus less representative than larger samples.
We provide suggestions for future studies, optimal sampling strategies for quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions and realistic uncertainty in age models, as well as discuss possible implications for the interpretation of paleoclimate records.
Ecologists carry a well-stocked toolbox with a great variety of sampling methods, statistical analyses and modelling tools, and new methods are constantly appearing. Evaluation and optimisation of these methods is crucial to guide methodological choices. Simulating error-free data or taking high-quality data to qualify methods is common practice. Here, we emphasise the methodology of the 'virtual ecologist' (VE) approach where simulated data and observer models are used to mimic real species and how they are 'virtually' observed. This virtual data is then subjected to statistical analyses and modelling, and the results are evaluated against the 'true' simulated data. The VE approach is an intuitive and powerful evaluation framework that allows a quality assessment of sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. It works under controlled conditions as well as under consideration of confounding factors such as animal movement and biased observer behaviour. In this review, we promote the approach as a rigorous research tool, and demonstrate its capabilities and practical relevance. We explore past uses of VE in different ecological research fields, where it mainly has been used to test and improve sampling regimes as well as for testing and comparing models, for example species distribution models. We discuss its benefits as well as potential limitations, and provide some practical considerations for designing VE studies. Finally, research fields are identified for which the approach could be useful in the future. We conclude that VE could foster the integration of theoretical and empirical work and stimulate work that goes far beyond sampling methods, leading to new questions, theories, and better mechanistic understanding of ecological systems.
Empirical species distribution models (SDMs) constitute often the tool of choice for the assessment of rapid climate change effects on species vulnerability. Conclusions regarding extinction risks might be misleading, however, because SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dispersal or other demographic processes. Here, we supplement SDMs with a dynamic population model 1) to predict climate-induced range dynamics for black grouse in Switzerland, 2) to compare direct and indirect measures of extinction risks, and 3) to quantify uncertainty in predictions as well as the sources of that uncertainty. To this end, we linked models of habitat suitability to a spatially explicit, individual-based model. In an extensive sensitivity analysis, we quantified uncertainty in various model outputs introduced by different SDM algorithms, by different climate scenarios and by demographic model parameters. Potentially suitable habitats were predicted to shift uphill and eastwards. By the end of the 21st century, abrupt habitat losses were predicted in the western Prealps for some climate scenarios. In contrast, population size and occupied area were primarily controlled by currently negative population growth and gradually declined from the beginning of the century across all climate scenarios and SDM algorithms. However, predictions of population dynamic features were highly variable across simulations. Results indicate that inferring extinction probabilities simply from the quantity of suitable habitat may underestimate extinction risks because this may ignore important interactions between life history traits and available habitat. Also, in dynamic range predictions uncertainty in SDM algorithms and climate scenarios can become secondary to uncertainty in dynamic model components. Our study emphasises the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis in order to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. A more direct benefit of such robustness analysis is an improved mechanistic understanding of dynamic species responses to climate change.
Sub-seasonal thaw slump mass wasting is not consistently energy limited at the landscape scale
(2018)
Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of timescales. On sub-seasonal timescales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellites. The estimated elevation changes at 12m resolution complement the commonly observed planimetric retreat rates by providing information on volume losses. Their high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km(2)) allow us to track mass wasting as drivers such as the available energy change during the summer of 2015 in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm day 1) despite the ample available energy, suggesting the widespread presence of early season insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm day 1), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the headwall height. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.
Kijko et al. (2016) present various methods to estimate parameters that are relevant for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment. One of these parameters, although not the most influential, is the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). I show that the proposed estimation of m(max) is based on an erroneous equation related to a misuse of the estimator in Cooke (1979) and leads to unstable results. So far, reported finite estimations of m(max) arise from data selection, because the estimator in Kijko et al. (2016) diverges with finite probability. This finding is independent of the assumed distribution of earthquake magnitudes. For the specific choice of the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution, I illustrate the problems by deriving explicit equations. Finally, I conclude that point estimators are generally not a suitable approach to constrain m(max).
In this study, the spatial and temporal impacts of the Ataturk Dam on agro-meteorological aspects of the Southeastern Anatolia region have been investigated. Change detection and environmental impacts due to water-reserve changes in Ataturk Dam Lake have been determined and evaluated using multi-temporal Landsat satellite imageries and meteorological datasets within a period of 1984-2011. These time series have been evaluated for three time periods. Dam construction period constitutes the first part of the study. Land cover/use changes especially on agricultural fields under the Ataturk Dam Lake and its vicinity have been identified between the periods of 1984-1992. The second period comprises the 10-year period after the completion of filling up the reservoir in 1992. At this period, Landsat and meteorological time-series analyses are examined to assess the impact of the Ataturk Dam Lake on selected irrigated agricultural areas. For the last 9-year period from 2002 to 2011, the relationships between seasonal water-reserve changes and irrigated plains under changing climatic factors primarily driving vegetation activity (monthly, seasonal, and annual fluctuations of rainfall rate, air temperature, humidity) on the watershed have been investigated using a 30-year meteorological time series. The results showed that approximately 368 km(2) of agricultural fields have been affected because of inundation due to the Ataturk Dam Lake. However, irrigated agricultural fields have been increased by 56.3% of the total area (1552 of 2756 km(2)) on Harran Plain within the period of 1984-2011.
Landslides are frequent natural hazards in rugged terrain, when the resisting frictional force of the surface of rupture yields to the gravitational force. These forces are functions of geological and morphological factors, such as angle of internal friction, local slope gradient or curvature, which remain static over hundreds of years; whereas more dynamic triggering events, such as rainfall and earthquakes, compromise the force balance by temporarily reducing resisting forces or adding transient loads. This thesis investigates landslide distribution and orientation due to landslide triggers (e.g. rainfall) at different scales (6-4∙10^5 km^2) and aims to link rainfall movement with the landslide distribution. It additionally explores the local impacts of the extreme rainstorms on landsliding and the role of precursory stability conditions that could be induced by an earlier trigger, such as an earthquake.
Extreme rainfall is a common landslide trigger. Although several studies assessed rainfall intensity and duration to study the distribution of thus triggered landslides, only a few case studies quantified spatial rainfall patterns (i.e. orographic effect). Quantifying the regional trajectories of extreme rainfall could aid predicting landslide prone regions in Japan. To this end, I combined a non-linear correlation metric, namely event synchronization, and radial statistics to assess the general pattern of extreme rainfall tracks over distances of hundreds of kilometers using satellite based rainfall estimates. Results showed that, although the increase in rainfall intensity and duration positively correlates with landslide occurrence, the trajectories of typhoons and frontal storms were insufficient to explain landslide distribution in Japan. Extreme rainfall trajectories inclined northwestwards and were concentrated along some certain locations, such as coastlines of southern Japan, which was unnoticed in the landslide distribution of about 5000 rainfall-triggered landslides. These landslides seemed to respond to the mean annual rainfall rates.
Above mentioned findings suggest further investigation on a more local scale to better understand the mechanistic response of landscape to extreme rainfall in terms of landslides. On May 2016 intense rainfall struck southern Germany triggering high waters and landslides. The highest damage was reported at the Braunsbach, which is located on the tributary-mouth fan formed by the Orlacher Bach. Orlacher Bach is a ~3 km long creek that drains a catchment of about ~6 km^2. I visited this catchment in June 2016 and mapped 48 landslides along the creek. Such high landslide activity was not reported in the nearby catchments within ~3300 km^2, despite similar rainfall intensity and duration based on weather radar estimates. My hypothesis was that several landslides were triggered by rainfall-triggered flash floods that undercut hillslope toes along the Orlacher Bach. I found that morphometric features such as slope and curvature play an important role in landslide distribution on this micro scale study site (<10 km^2). In addition, the high number of landslides along the Orlacher Bach could also be boosted by accumulated damages on hillslopes due karst weathering over longer time scales.
Precursory damages on hillslopes could also be induced by past triggering events that effect landscape evolution, but this interaction is hard to assess independently from the latest trigger. For example, an earthquake might influence the evolution of a landscape decades long, besides its direct impacts, such as landslides that follow the earthquake. Here I studied the consequences of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake (MW 7.1) that triggered some 1500 landslides in an area of ~4000 km^2 in central Kyushu, Japan. Topography, i.e. local slope and curvature, both amplified and attenuated seismic waves, thus controlling the failure mechanism of those landslides (e.g. progressive). I found that topography fails in explaining the distribution and the preferred orientation of the landslides after the earthquake; instead the landslides were concentrated around the northeast of the rupture area and faced mostly normal to the rupture plane. This preferred location of the landslides was dominated mainly by the directivity effect of the strike-slip earthquake, which is the propagation of wave energy along the fault in the rupture direction; whereas amplitude variations of the seismic radiation altered the preferred orientation. I suspect that the earthquake directivity and the asymmetry of seismic radiation damaged hillslopes at those preferred locations increasing landslide susceptibility. Hence a future weak triggering event, e.g. scattered rainfall, could further trigger landslides at those damaged hillslopes.
Quantitative estimates of sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Basin become increasingly accurate thanks to detailed satellite monitoring. However, such measuring campaigns cover several years to decades, while longer-term sea-level records are rare for the Mediterranean. We used a data archeological approach to reanalyze monthly mean sea-level data of the Antalya-I (1935–1977) tide gauge to fill this gap. We checked the accuracy and reliability of these data before merging them with the more recent records of the Antalya-II (1985–2009) tide gauge, accounting for an eight-year hiatus. We obtain a composite time series of monthly and annual mean sea levels spanning some 75 years, providing the longest record for the eastern Mediterranean Basin, and thus an essential tool for studying the region's recent sea-level trends. We estimate a relative mean sea-level rise of 2.2 ± 0.5 mm/year between 1935 and 2008, with an annual variability (expressed here as the standard deviation of the residuals, σresiduals = 41.4 mm) above that at the closest tide gauges (e.g., Thessaloniki, Greece, σresiduals = 29.0 mm). Relative sea-level rise accelerated to 6.0 ± 1.5 mm/year at Antalya-II; we attribute roughly half of this rate (~3.6 mm/year) to tectonic crustal motion and anthropogenic land subsidence. Our study highlights the value of data archeology for recovering and integrating historic tide gauge data for long-term sea-level and climate studies.
In order to monitor the seismic activity of Mt. Merapi (Indonesia) over a long period of time, we installed a permanent array of both broadband and short-period seismometers during the summer of 1997. Considering the requirements of an automatic classification and localization system for seismic monitoring and surveillance at active volcanoes, we split this network into three small aperture arrays distributed around the volcano. We introduce here a newly developed method to determine the hypocenters in an automatic, non-linear manner using the coherence of seismic waves observed at the different arrays. To test this method, we analyze a swarm of VT-B events recorded by the network. The first step in this algorithm is based on a modified smoothed coherence transform. In the second step we perform a semblance analysis applied to the 3D problem, evaluating the quality of the estimated relative onset-times. After more than one year of dormancy, Mt. Merapi renewed its activity at the end of June 1998. This gave us the opportunity to analyze all stages of dome growth, collapse and new intrusion of magma using the associated seismicity in a post-processing sense. This also allowed us to calibrate and test our newly developed automatic monitoring system using the more pronounced waveforms of VT-B events. By detecting and classifying different event types automatically, we are able to localize a large number of VT-B events which occurred just before the initial eruption. We are also able to resolve some properties of the wavefield at Mt Merapi which are essential for further interpretations. Finally, the results show that the source region of the VT-B type seismicity just before the 1998 eruption is closely related to the region of subsequent high volcanic activity and therefore may represent a promising tool to forecast future eruptions.
Theories and concepts
(2020)
Urban Change and Citizenship in Times of Crisis addresses the fact that in the beginning of the twenty-first century the majority of the world’s population is urbanised, a social fact that has turned cities more than ever into focal sites of social change. Multiple economic and political strategies, employed by a variety of individual and collective actors, on a number of scales, constitute cities as contested spaces that hold opportunities as well as restrictions for their inhabitants. While cities and urban spaces have long been of central concern for the social sciences, today, classical sociological questions about the city acquire new meaning: Can cities be spaces of emancipation, or does life in the modern city entail a corrosion of citizenship rights? Is the city the focus of societal transformation processes, or do urban environments lose importance in shaping social reality and economic relationships? Furthermore, new questions urgently need to be asked: What is the impact of different historical phenomena such as neo-liberal restructuring, financial and economic crises, or migration flows, as well as their respective counter-movements, on the structure of contemporary cities and on the citizenship rights of city inhabitants? The three volumes address such crucial questions thereby opening up new spaces of debate on both the city and new developments of urbanism.
The contributions to Theories and Concepts offer new theoretical reflections on the city in a philosophical and historical perspective as well as fresh empirical analyses of social life in urban contexts. Chapters not only critically revisit classical and modern philosophical considerations about the nature of cities but no less discuss normative philosophical reflections of urban life and the role of religion in historical processes of the emergence of cities. Composed around the question whether there can be such a thing as a ‘successful city’, this volume addresses issues of urban political subjectivities by considering the city’s role in historical processes of emancipation, the fight for citizenship rights, and today’s challenges and opportunities with regard to promoting social justice, integration, and diversity. Consequentially, theory-driven empirical analyses offer new insight into ways of solving problems in urban contexts and a genuine approach to analyse the Social Quality in cities.
RAA2019
(2019)
These abstracts result from the 10th International Congress on the Application of Raman Spectroscopy in Art and Archaeology held 03.09. – 07.09.2019 in Potsdam (Germany).
The RAA is an established biennial international conference series. Since the beginning in 2001, the RAA conferences promote Raman Spectroscopy and play an important role in increasing the field of its applications in art history, history, archaeology, palaeontology, conservation and restoration, museology, degradation of cultural heritage, archaeometry, etc. Furthermore, the development of new instrumentation, especially for non-invasive measurements, receives great attention.
The Congress covers all topics of Raman spectroscopic applications in art and archaeology and focuses on the following themes:
• Material characterization and degradation processes
• Conservation issues affecting cultural heritage
• Raman spectroscopy of biological and organic materials
• Surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy
• Chemometrics in Raman spectroscopy
• Development of Raman techniques
• New Raman instrumentation and applications in cultural heritage objects investigations
• Raman spectroscopy in paleontology, paleoenvironment and archaeology
Alexander von Humboldt
(2022)
This book aims to view and to understand Alexander von Humboldt from different perspectives and in varying disciplinary contexts. His contributions addressed numerous topics in the earth but also life sciences—spanning from geo-botany, climatology, paleontology, oceanography, mineralogy, resources, and hydrogeology to links between the environmental impact of humans, erosion, and climate change. From the very beginning, he paved the way for a modern, integrated earth system science approach to decipher, characterize, and model the different forcing factors and their feedback mechanisms. It becomes obvious that Humboldt’s holistic approach is far beyond simple description and empiric data collection. As documented and analyzed in the different texts of this volume, he combines observation and analysis with emotions and subjective perceptions in a very affectionate way. However, this publication does not intend to add another encyclopedic text compilation but to observe and critically analyze this unique personality´s relevance in a modern context, particularly in discussing environmental and social key issues in the twenty-first century.
Natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, landslides, and multi-hazard events heavily affect human societies and call for better management strategies. Due to the severity of such events, it is of utmost importance to understand whether and how they change in re-sponse to evolving hydro-climatological, geo-physical and socio-economic conditions. These conditions jointly determine the magnitude, frequency, and impact of disasters, and are changing in response to climate change and human behavior. Therefore methods are need-ed for hazard and risk quantification accounting for the transient nature of hazards and risks in response to changing natural and anthropogenic altered systems. The purpose of this conference is to bring together researchers from natural sciences (e.g. hydrology, meteorology, geomorphology, hydraulic engineering, environmental science, seismology, geography), risk research, nonlinear systems dynamics, and applied mathematics to discuss new insights and developments about data science, changing systems, multi-hazard events and the linkage between hazard and vulnerabilities under unstable environmental conditions. Knowledge transfer, communication and networking will be key issues of the conference. The conference is organized by means of invited talks given by outstanding experts, oral presentations, poster sessions and discussions.