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Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
A growing literature has suggested that processing of visual information presented near the hands is facilitated. In this study, we investigated whether the near-hands superiority effect also occurs with the hands moving. In two experiments, participants performed a cyclical bimanual movement task requiring concurrent visual identification of briefly presented letters. For both the static and dynamic hand conditions, the results showed improved letter recognition performance with the hands closer to the stimuli. The finding that the encoding advantage for near-hand stimuli also occurred with the hands moving suggests that the effect is regulated in real time, in accordance with the concept of a bimodal neural system that dynamically updates hand position in external space.
When infants observe a human grasping action, experience-based accounts predict that all infants familiar with grasping actions should be able to predict the goal regardless of additional agency cues such as an action effect. Cue-based accounts, however, suggest that infants use agency cues to identify and predict action goals when the action or the agent is not familiar. From these accounts, we hypothesized that younger infants would need additional agency cues such as a salient action effect to predict the goal of a human grasping action, whereas older infants should be able to predict the goal regardless of agency cues. In three experiments, we presented 6-, 7-, and 11-month-olds with videos of a manual grasping action presented either with or without an additional salient action effect (Exp. 1 and 2), or we presented 7-month-olds with videos of a mechanical claw performing a grasping action presented with a salient action effect (Exp. 3). The 6-month-olds showed tracking gaze behavior, and the 11-month-olds showed predictive gaze behavior, regardless of the action effect. However, the 7-month-olds showed predictive gaze behavior in the action-effect condition, but tracking gaze behavior in the no-action-effect condition and in the action-effect condition with a mechanical claw. The results therefore support the idea that salient action effects are especially important for infants' goal predictions from 7 months on, and that this facilitating influence of action effects is selective for the observation of human hands.
Action effects have been stated to be important for infants’ processing of goal-directed actions. In this study, 11-month-olds showed equally fast predictive gaze shifts to a claw’s action goal when the grasping action was presented either with three agency cues (self-propelled movement, equifinality of goal achievement and a salient action effect) or with only a salient action effect, but infants showed tracking gaze when the claw showed only self-propelled movement and equifinality of goal achievement. The results suggest that action effects, compared to purely kinematic cues, seem to be especially important for infants' online processing of goal-directed actions.
During the observation of goal-directed actions, infants usually predict the goal at an earlier age when the agent is familiar (e.g., human hand) compared to unfamiliar (e.g., mechanical claw). These findings implicate a crucial role of the developing agentive self for infants' processing of others' action goals. Recent theoretical accounts suggest that predictive gaze behavior relies on an interplay between infants' agentive experience (top-down processes) and perceptual information about the agent and the action-event (bottom-up information; e.g., agency cues). The present study examined 7-, 11-, and 18-month-old infants' predictive gaze behavior for a grasping action performed by an unfamiliar tool, depending on infants' age-related action knowledge about tool-use and the display of the agency cue of producing a salient action effect. The results are in line with the notion of a systematic interplay between experience-based top-down processes and cue-based bottom-up information: Regardless of the salient action effect, predictive gaze shifts did not occur in the 7-month-olds (least experienced age group), but did occur in the 18-month-olds (most experienced age group). In the 11-month-olds, however, predictive gaze shifts occurred only when a salient action effect was presented. This sheds new light on how the developing agentive self, in interplay with available agency cues, supports infants' action-goal prediction also for observed tool-use actions.
For the processing of goal-directed actions, some accounts emphasize the importance of experience with the action or the agent. Other accounts stress the importance of agency cues. We investigated the impact of agency cues on 11-month-olds’ and adults’ goal anticipation for a grasping-action performed by a mechanical claw. With an eyetracker, we measured anticipations in two conditions, where the claw was displayed either with or without agency cues. In two experiments, 11-month-olds were predictive when agency cues were present, but reactive when no agency cues were presented. Adults were predictive in both conditions. Furthermore, 11-month-olds rapidly learned to predict the goal in the agency condition, but not in the mechanical condition. Adults’ predictions did not change across trials in the agency condition, but decelerated in the mechanical condition. Thus, agency cues and own action experience are important for infants’ and adults’ online processing of goal-directed actions by non-human agents.
Previous research indicates that infants’ prediction of the goals of observed actions is influenced by own experience with the type of agent performing the action (i.e., human hand vs. non-human agent) as well as by action-relevant features of goal objects (e.g., object size). The present study investigated the combined effects of these factors on 12-month-olds’ action prediction. Infants’ (N = 49) goal-directed gaze shifts were recorded as they observed 14 trials in which either a human hand or a mechanical claw reached for a small goal area (low-saliency goal) or a large goal area (high-saliency goal). Only infants who had observed the human hand reaching for a high-saliency goal fixated the goal object ahead of time, and they rapidly learned to predict the action goal across trials. By contrast, infants in all other conditions did not track the observed action in a predictive manner, and their gaze shifts to the action goal did not change systematically across trials. Thus, high-saliency goals seem to boost infants’ predictive gaze shifts during the observation of human manual actions, but not of actions performed by a mechanical device. This supports the assumption that infants’ action predictions are based on interactive effects of action-relevant object features (e.g., size) and own action experience.
We assessed intra-individual variability of response times (RT) and single-trial P3 amplitudes following targets in healthy adults during a Flanker/NO-GO task. RT variability and variability of the neural responses coupled at the faster frequencies examined (0.07-0.17 Hz) at Pz, the target-P3 maxima, despite non-significant associations for overall variability (standard deviation, SD). Frequency-specific patterns of variability in the single-trial P3 may help to understand the neurophysiology of RT variability and its explanatory models of attention allocation deficits beyond intra-individual variability summary indices such as SD.
The color red has been implicated in a variety of social processes, including those involving mating. While previous research suggests that women sometimes wear red strategically to increase their attractiveness, the replicability of this literature has been questioned. The current research is a reasonably powered conceptual replication designed to strengthen this literature by testing whether women are more inclined to display the color red 1) during fertile (as compared with less fertile) days of the menstrual cycle, and 2) when expecting to interact with an attractive man (as compared with a less attractive man and with a control condition). Analyses controlled for a number of theoretically relevant covariates (relationship status, age, the current weather). Only the latter hypothesis received mixed support (mainly among women on hormonal birth control), whereas results concerning the former hypothesis did not reach significance. Women (N = 281) displayed more red when expecting to interact with an attractive man; findings did not support the prediction that women would increase their display of red on fertile days of the cycle. Findings thus suggested only mixed replicability for the link between the color red and psychological processes involving romantic attraction. They also illustrate the importance of further investigating the boundary conditions of color effects on everyday social processes.
The aim of the present study was to investigate the test-retest reliability of the olfactory detection threshold subtest of the Sniffin" Sticks test battery, if administered repeatedly on 4 time points. The detection threshold test was repeatedly conducted in 64 healthy subjects. On the first testing session, the threshold test was accomplished 3 times (T(1) = 0 min, T(2) = 35 min, and T(3) = 105 min), representing a short-term testing. A fourth threshold test was conducted on a second testing session (T(4) = 35.1 days after the first testing session), representing a long-term testing. The average scores for olfactory detection threshold for n-butanol did not differ significantly across the 4 points of time. The test-retest reliability (Pearson"s r) between the 4 time points of threshold testing were in a range of 0.43-0.85 (P < 0.01). These results support the notion that the olfactory detection threshold test is a highly reliable method for repeated olfactory testing, even if the test is repeated more than once per day and over a long-term period. It is concluded that the olfactory detection threshold test of the Sniffin" Sticks is suitable for repeated testing during experimental or clinical studies.
Applied to the nasal mucosa in low concentrations, nicotine vapor evokes odorous sensations (mediated by the olfactory system) whereas at higher concentrations nicotine vapor additionally produces burning and stinging sensations in the nose (mediated by the trigeminal system). The objective of this study was to determine whether intranasal stimulation with suprathreshold concentrations of S(-)-nicotine vapor causes brain activation in olfactory cortical areas or if trigeminal cortical areas are also activated. Individual olfactory detection thresholds for S(-)-nicotine were determined in 19 healthy occasional smokers using a computer-controlled air-dilution olfactometer. Functional magnetic resonance images were acquired using a 1.5T MR scanner with applications of nicotine in concentrations at or just above the individual"s olfactory detection threshold. Subjects reliably perceived the stimuli as being odorous. Accordingly, activation of brain areas known to be involved in processing of olfactory stimuli was identified. Although most of the subjects never or only rarely observed a burning or painful sensation in the nose, brain areas associated with the processing of painful stimuli were activated in all subjects. This indicates that the olfactory and trigeminal systems are activated during perception of nicotine and it is not possible to completely separate olfactory from trigeminal effects by lowering the concentration of the applied nicotine. In conclusion, even at low concentrations that do not consistently lead to painful sensations, intranasally applied nicotine activates both the olfactory and the trigeminal system.
Cultural generality versus specificity of media violence effects on aggression was examined in seven countries (Australia, China, Croatia, Germany, Japan, Romania, the United States). Participants reported aggressive behaviors, media use habits, and several other known risk and protective factors for aggression. Across nations, exposure to violent screen media was positively associated with aggression. This effect was partially mediated by aggressive cognitions and empathy. The media violence effect on aggression remained significant even after statistically controlling a number of relevant risk and protective factors (e.g., abusive parenting, peer delinquency), and was similar in magnitude to effects of other risk factors. In support of the cumulative risk model, joint effects of different risk factors on aggressive behavior in each culture were larger than effects of any individual risk factor.
We uniquely introduce convex production costs into a cartel model involving spatial price discrimination. We demonstrate that greater convexity improves cartel stability and that for sufficient convexity first best locations will be adopted. We show that allowing locations to vary over the game reduces cartel stability but that greater convexity continues to improve that stability. Moreover, when the degree of convexity does not support the first best collusive locations, other collusive locations exist that require less stability and these may either increase or decrease social welfare relative to competition. Critically, these locations that require less stability are more dispersed in sharp contrast to the known result assuming linear production costs.
The boundary paradigm (Rayner, 1975) with a novel preview manipulation was used to examine the extent of parafoveal processing of words to the right of fixation. Words n + 1 and n + 2 had either correct or incorrect previews prior to fixation (prior to crossing the boundary location). In addition, the manipulation utilized either a high or low frequency word in word n + 1 location on the assumption that it would be more likely that n + 2 preview effects could be obtained when word n + 1 was high frequency. The primary findings were that there was no evidence for a preview benefit for word n + 2 and no evidence for parafoveal-on-foveal effects when word n + 1 is at least four letters long. We discuss implications for models of eye-movement control in reading.
The boundary paradigm (Rayner, 1975) with a novel preview manipulation was used to examine the extent of parafoveal processing of words to the right of fixation. Words n+1 and n+2 had either correct or incorrect previews prior to fixation (prior to crossing the boundary location). In addition, the manipulation utilized either a high or low frequency word in word n+1 location on the assumption that it would be more likely that n+2 preview effects could be obtained when word n+1 was high frequency. The primary findings were that there was no evidence for a preview benefit for word n+2 and no evidence for parafoveal-on-foveal effects when word n+1 is at least four letters long. We discuss implications for models of eye-movement control in reading.
We measured memory span for assembly instructions involving objects with handles oriented to the left or right side. Right-handed participants remembered more instructions when objects' handles were spatially congruent with the hand used in forthcoming assembly actions. No such affordance-based memory benefit was found for left-handed participants. These results are discussed in terms of motor simulation as an embodied rehearsal mechanism.
Analysis of physicians' probability estimates of a medical outcome based on a sequence of events
(2022)
IMPORTANCE
The probability of a conjunction of 2 independent events is the product of the probabilities of the 2 components and therefore cannot exceed the probability of either component; violation of this basic law is called the conjunction fallacy. A common medical decision-making scenario involves estimating the probability of a final outcome resulting from a sequence of independent events; however, little is known about physicians' ability to accurately estimate the overall probability of success in these situations.
OBJECTIVE
To ascertain whether physicians are able to correctly estimate the overall probability of a medical outcome resulting from 2 independent events.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS
This survey study consisted of 3 separate substudies, in which 215 physicians were asked via internet-based survey to estimate the probability of success of each of 2 components of a diagnostic or prognostic sequence as well as the overall probability of success of the 2-step sequence. Substudy 1 was performed from April 2 to 4, 2021, substudy 2 from November 2 toll, 2021, and substudy 3 from May 13 to 19, 2021. All physicians were board certified or board eligible in the primary specialty germane to the substudy (ie, obstetrics and gynecology for substudies land 3 and pulmonology for substudy 2), were recruited from a commercial survey service, and volunteered to participate in the study.
EXPOSURES
Case scenarios presented in an online survey.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES
Respondents were asked to provide their demographic information in addition to 3 probability estimates. The first substudy included a scenario describing a brow presentation discovered during labor; the 2 conjuncts were the probabilities that the brow presentation would resolve and that the delivery would be vaginal. The second substudy involved a diagnostic evaluation of an incidentally discovered pulmonary nodule; the 2 conjuncts were the probabilities that the patient had a malignant condition and that a technically successful transthoracic needle biopsy would reveal a malignant condition. The third substudy included a modification of the first substudy in an attempt to debias the conjunction fallacy prevalent in the first substudy. Respondents' own probability estimates of the individual events were used to calculate the mathematically correct conjunctive probability.
RESULTS
Among 215 respondents, the mean (SD) age was 54.0 (9.5) years; 142 respondents (66.0%) were male. Data on race and ethnicity were not collected. A total of 168 physicians (78.1%) estimated the probability of the 2-step sequence to be greater than the probability of at least 1 of the 2 component events. Compared with the product of their 2 estimated components, respondents overestimated the combined probability by 12.8% (95% CI, 9.6%-16.1%; P < .001) in substudy 1, 19.8% (95% Cl, 16.6%-23.0%; P < .001) in substudy 2, and 18.0% (95% CI, 13.4%-22.5%; P < .001) in substudy 3, results that were mathematically incoherent (ie, formally illogical and mathematically incorrect).
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
In this survey study of 215 physicians, respondents consistently overestimated the combined probability of 2 events compared with the probability calculated from their own estimates of the individual events. This biased estimation, consistent with the conjunction fallacy, may have substantial implications for diagnostic and prognostic decision-making.
We examined face memory deficits in patients with Idiopathic Parkinson's disease (IPD) with specific regard to the moderating role of sex and the different memory processes involved. We tested short- and long-term face recognition memory in 18 nonclinical participants and 18 IPD-patients matched for sex, education and age. We varied the duration of item presentation (1, 5, 10s), the time of testing (immediately, 1hr, 24hrs) and the possibility to re-encode items. In accordance with earlier studies, we report face memory deficits in IPD. Moreover, our findings indicate that sex and encoding conditions may be important moderator variables. In contrast to healthy individuals, IPD-patients cannot gain from increasing duration of presentation. Furthermore, our results suggest that I PD leads to face memory deficits in women, only.