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Property tax competition
(2022)
We develop a model of property taxation and characterize equilibria under three alternative taxa-tion regimes often used in the public finance literature: decentralized taxation, centralized taxation, and “rent seeking” regimes. We show that decentralized taxation results in inefficiently high tax rates, whereas centralized taxation yields a common optimal tax rate, and tax rates in the rent-seeking regime can be either inefficiently high or low. We quantify the effects of switching from the observed tax system to the three regimes for Japan and Germany. The decentralized or rent-seeking regime best describes the Japanese tax system, whereas the centralized regime does so for Germany. We also quantify the welfare effects of regime changes.
Urban pollution
(2022)
We use worldwide satellite data to analyse how population size and density affect urban pollution. We find that density significantly increases pollution exposure. Looking only at urban areas, we find that population size affects exposure more than density. Moreover, the effect is driven mostly by population commuting to core cities rather than the core city population itself. We analyse heterogeneity by geography and income levels. By and large, the influence of population on pollution is greatest in Asia and middle-income countries. A counterfactual simulation shows that PM2.5 exposure would fall by up to 36% and NO2 exposure up to 53% if within countries population size were equalized across all cities.
Metals are often used in environments that are conducive to corrosion, which leads to a reduction in their mechanical properties and durability. Coatings are applied to corrosion-prone metals such as aluminum alloys to inhibit the destructive surface process of corrosion in a passive or active way. Standard anticorrosive coatings function as a physical barrier between the material and the corrosive environment and provide passive protection only when intact. In contrast, active protection prevents or slows down corrosion even when the main barrier is damaged. The most effective industrially used active corrosion inhibition for aluminum alloys is provided by chromate conversion coatings. However, their toxicity and worldwide restriction provoke an urgent need for finding environmentally friendly corrosion preventing systems. A promising approach to replace the toxic chromate coatings is to embed particles containing nontoxic inhibitor in a passive coating matrix. This work presents the development and optimization of effective anticorrosive coatings for the industrially important aluminum alloy, AA2024-T3 using this approach. The protective coatings were prepared by dispersing mesoporous silica containers, loaded with the nontoxic corrosion inhibitor 2-mercaptobenzothiazole, in a passive sol-gel (SiOx/ZrOx) or organic water-based layer. Two types of porous silica containers with different sizes (d ≈ 80 and 700 nm, respectively) were investigated. The studied robust containers exhibit high surface area (≈ 1000 m² g-1), narrow pore size distribution (dpore ≈ 3 nm) and large pore volume (≈ 1 mL g-1) as determined by N2 sorption measurements. These properties favored the subsequent adsorption and storage of a relatively large amount of inhibitor as well as its release in response to pH changes induced by the corrosion process. The concentration, position and size of the embedded containers were varied to ascertain the optimum conditions for overall anticorrosion performance. Attaining high anticorrosion efficiency was found to require a compromise between delivering an optimal amount of corrosion inhibitor and preserving the coating barrier properties. This study broadens the knowledge about the main factors influencing the coating anticorrosion efficiency and assists the development of optimum active anticorrosive coatings doped with inhibitor loaded containers.
Strong as a Hippo’s Heart: Biomechanical Hippo Signaling During Zebrafish Cardiac Development
(2021)
The heart is comprised of multiple tissues that contribute to its physiological functions. During development, the growth of myocardium and endocardium is coupled and morphogenetic processes within these separate tissue layers are integrated. Here, we discuss the roles of mechanosensitive Hippo signaling in growth and morphogenesis of the zebrafish heart. Hippo signaling is involved in defining numbers of cardiac progenitor cells derived from the secondary heart field, in restricting the growth of the epicardium, and in guiding trabeculation and outflow tract formation. Recent work also shows that myocardial chamber dimensions serve as a blueprint for Hippo signaling-dependent growth of the endocardium. Evidently, Hippo pathway components act at the crossroads of various signaling pathways involved in embryonic zebrafish heart development. Elucidating how biomechanical Hippo signaling guides heart morphogenesis has direct implications for our understanding of cardiac physiology and pathophysiology.
Parsing costs as predictors of reading difficulty: An evaluation using the Potsdam Sentence Corpus
(2008)
The surprisal of a word on a probabilistic grammar constitutes a promising complexity metric for human sentence comprehension difficulty. Using two different grammar types, surprisal is shown to have an effect on fixation durations and regression probabilities in a sample of German readers’ eye movements, the Potsdam Sentence Corpus. A linear mixed-effects model was used to quantify the effect of surprisal while taking into account unigram and bigram frequency, word length, and empirically-derived word predictability; the so-called “early” and “late” measures of processing difficulty both showed an effect of surprisal. Surprisal is also shown to have a small but statistically non-significant effect on empirically-derived predictability itself. This work thus demonstrates the importance of including parsing costs as a predictor of comprehension difficulty in models of reading, and suggests that a simple identification of syntactic parsing costs with early measures and late measures with durations of post-syntactic events may be difficult to uphold.
Eye fixation durations during normal reading correlate with processing difficulty but the specific cognitive mechanisms reflected in these measures are not well understood. This study finds support in German readers’ eyefixations for two distinct difficulty metrics: surprisal, which reflects the change in probabilities across syntactic analyses as new words are integrated, and retrieval, which quantifies comprehension difficulty in terms of working memory constraints. We examine the predictions of both metrics using a family of dependency parsers indexed by an upper limit on the number of candidate syntactic analyses they retain at successive words. Surprisal models all fixation measures and regression probability. By contrast, retrieval does not model any measure in serial processing. As more candidate analyses are considered in parallel at each word, retrieval can account for the same measures as surprisal. This pattern suggests an important role for ranked parallelism in theories of sentence comprehension.
The prevalence of obesity in the pediatric population has become a major public health issue. Indeed, the dramatic increase of this epidemic causes multiple and harmful consequences, Physical activity, particularly physical exercise, remains to be the cornerstone of interventions against childhood obesity. Given the conflicting findings with reference to the relevant literature addressing the effects of exercise on adiposity and physical fitness outcomes in obese children and adolescents, the effect of duration-matched concurrent training (CT) [50% resistance (RT) and 50% high-intensity-interval-training (HIIT)] on body composition and physical fitness in obese youth remains to be elucidated. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine the effects of 9-weeks of CT compared to RT or HIIT alone, on body composition and selected physical fitness components in healthy sedentary obese youth. Out of 73 participants, only 37; [14 males and 23 females; age 13.4 ± 0.9 years; body-mass-index (BMI): 31.2 ± 4.8 kg·m-2] were eligible and randomized into three groups: HIIT (n = 12): 3-4 sets×12 runs at 80–110% peak velocity, with 10-s passive recovery between bouts; RT (n = 12): 6 exercises; 3–4 sets × 10 repetition maximum (RM) and CT (n = 13): 50% serial completion of RT and HIIT. CT promoted significant greater gains compared to HIIT and RT on body composition (p < 0.01, d = large), 6-min-walking test distance (6 MWT-distance) and on 6 MWT-VO2max (p < 0.03, d = large). In addition, CT showed substantially greater improvements than HIIT in the medicine ball throw test (20.2 vs. 13.6%, p < 0.04, d = large). On the other hand, RT exhibited significantly greater gains in relative hand grip strength (p < 0.03, d = large) and CMJ (p < 0.01, d = large) than HIIT and CT. CT promoted greater benefits for fat, body mass loss and cardiorespiratory fitness than HIIT or RT modalities. This study provides important information for practitioners and therapists on the application of effective exercise regimes with obese youth to induce significant and beneficial body composition changes. The applied CT program and the respective programming parameters in terms of exercise intensity and volume can be used by practitioners as an effective exercise treatment to fight the pandemic overweight and obesity in youth.
We have analyzed the spectra of seven Galactic O4 supergiants, with the NLTE wind code CMFGEN. For all stars, we have found that clumped wind models match well lines from different species spanning a wavelength range from FUV to optical, and remain consistent with Hα data. We have achieved an excellent match of the P V λλ1118, 1128 resonance doublet and N IV λ1718, as well as He II λ4686 suggesting that our physical description of clumping is adequate. We find very small volume filling factors and that clumping starts deep in the wind, near the sonic point. The most crucial consequence of our analysis is that the mass loss rates of O stars need to be revised downward significantly, by a factor of 3 and more compared to those obtained from smooth-wind models.
Cognitive resources contribute to balance control. There is evidence that mental fatigue reduces cognitive resources and impairs balance performance, particularly in older adults and when balance tasks are complex, for example when trying to walk or stand while concurrently performing a secondary cognitive task.
We conducted a systematic literature search in PubMed (MEDLINE), Web of Science and Google Scholar to identify eligible studies and performed a random effects meta-analysis to quantify the effects of experimentally induced mental fatigue on balance performance in healthy adults. Subgroup analyses were computed for age (healthy young vs. healthy older adults) and balance task complexity (balance tasks with high complexity vs. balance tasks with low complexity) to examine the moderating effects of these factors on fatigue-mediated balance performance.
We identified 7 eligible studies with 9 study groups and 206 participants. Analysis revealed that performing a prolonged cognitive task had a small but significant effect (SMDwm = −0.38) on subsequent balance performance in healthy young and older adults. However, age- and task-related differences in balance responses to fatigue could not be confirmed statistically.
Overall, aggregation of the available literature indicates that mental fatigue generally reduces balance in healthy adults. However, interactions between cognitive resource reduction, aging and balance task complexity remain elusive.
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of scientific endeavors. The goal of this systematic review is to evaluate the quality of the research on physical activity (PA) behavior change and its potential to contribute to policy-making processes in the early days of COVID-19 related restrictions.
Methods: We conducted a systematic review of methodological quality of current research according to PRISMA guidelines using Pubmed and Web of Science, of articles on PA behavior change that were published within 365 days after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Items from the JBI checklist and the AXIS tool were used for additional risk of bias assessment. Evidence mapping is used for better visualization of the main results. Conclusions about the significance of published articles are based on hypotheses on PA behavior change in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Results: Among the 1,903 identified articles, there were 36% opinion pieces, 53% empirical studies, and 9% reviews. Of the 332 studies included in the systematic review, 213 used self-report measures to recollect prepandemic behavior in often small convenience samples. Most focused changes in PA volume, whereas changes in PA types were rarely measured. The majority had methodological reporting flaws. Few had very large samples with objective measures using repeated measure design (pre and during the pandemic). In addition to the expected decline in PA duration, these studies show that many of those who were active prepandemic, continued to be active during the pandemic.
Conclusions: Research responded quickly at the onset of the pandemic. However, most of the studies lacked robust methodology, and PA behavior change data lacked the accuracy needed to guide policy makers. To improve the field, we propose the implementation of longitudinal cohort studies by larger organizations such as WHO to ease access to data on PA behavior, and suggest those institutions set clear standards for this research. Researchers need to ensure a better fit between the measurement method and the construct being measured, and use both objective and subjective measures where appropriate to complement each other and provide a comprehensive picture of PA behavior.
Deductive databases need general formulas in rule bodies, not only conjuctions of literals. This is well known since the work of Lloyd and Topor about extended logic programming. Of course, formulas must be restricted in such a way that they can be effectively evaluated in finite time, and produce only a finite number of new tuples (in each iteration of the TP-operator: the fixpoint can still be infinite). It is also necessary to respect binding restrictions of built-in predicates: many of these predicates can be executed only when certain arguments are ground. Whereas for standard logic programming rules, questions of safety, allowedness, and range-restriction are relatively easy and well understood, the situation for general formulas is a bit more complicated. We give a syntactic analysis of formulas that guarantees the necessary properties.
The Milky Way is only one out of billions of galaxies in the universe. However, it is a special galaxy because it allows to explore the main mechanisms involved in its evolution and formation history by unpicking the system star-by-star. Especially, the chemical fingerprints of its stars provide clues and evidence of past events in the Galaxy’s lifetime. These information help not only to decipher the current structure and building blocks of the Milky Way, but to learn more about the general formation process of galaxies.
In the past decade a multitude of stellar spectroscopic Galactic surveys have scanned millions of stars far beyond the rim of the solar neighbourhood. The obtained spectroscopic information provide unprecedented insights to the chemo-dynamics of the Milky Way. In addition analytic models and numerical simulations of the Milky Way provide necessary descriptions and predictions suited for comparison with observations in order to decode the physical properties that underlie the complex system of the Galaxy.
In the thesis various approaches are taken to connect modern theoretical modelling of galaxy formation and evolution with observations from Galactic stellar surveys. With its focus on the chemo-kinematics of the Galactic disk this work aims to determine new observational constraints on the formation of the Milky Way providing also proper comparisons with two different models. These are the population synthesis model TRILEGAL based on analytical distribution functions, which aims to simulate the number and distribution of stars in the Milky Way and its different components, and a hybrid model (MCM) that combines an N-body simulation of a Milky Way like galaxy in the cosmological framework with a semi-analytic chemical evolution model for the Milky Way. The major observational data sets in use come from two surveys, namely the “Radial Velocity Experiment” (RAVE) and the “Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration” (SEGUE).
In the first approach the chemo-kinematic properties of the thin and thick disk of the Galaxy as traced by a selection of about 20000 SEGUE G-dwarf stars are directly compared to the predictions by the MCM model. As a necessary condition for this, SEGUE's selection function and its survey volume are evaluated in detail to correct the spectroscopic observations for their survey specific selection biases. Also, based on a Bayesian method spectro-photometric distances with uncertainties below 15% are computed for the selection of SEGUE G-dwarfs that are studied up to a distance of 3 kpc from the Sun.
For the second approach two synthetic versions of the SEGUE survey are generated based on the above models. The obtained synthetic stellar catalogues are then used to create mock samples best resembling the compiled sample of observed SEGUE G-dwarfs. Generally, mock samples are not only ideal to compare predictions from various models. They also allow validation of the models' quality and improvement as with this work could be especially achieved for TRILEGAL. While TRILEGAL reproduces the statistical properties of the thin and thick disk as seen in the observations, the MCM model has shown to be more suitable in reproducing many chemo-kinematic correlations as revealed by the SEGUE stars. However, evidence has been found that the MCM model may be missing a stellar component with the properties of the thick disk that the observations clearly show. While the SEGUE stars do indicate a thin-thick dichotomy of the stellar Galactic disk in agreement with other spectroscopic stellar studies, no sign for a distinct metal-poor disk is seen in the MCM model.
Usually stellar spectroscopic surveys are limited to a certain volume around the Sun covering different regions of the Galaxy’s disk. This often prevents to obtain a global view on the chemo-dynamics of the Galactic disk. Hence, a suitable combination of stellar samples from independent surveys is not only useful for the verification of results but it also helps to complete the picture of the Milky Way. Therefore, the thesis closes with a comparison of the SEGUE G-dwarfs and a sample of RAVE giants. The comparison reveals that the chemo-kinematic relations agree in disk regions where the samples of both surveys show a similar number of stars. For those parts of the survey volumes where one of the surveys lacks statistics they beautifully complement each other. This demonstrates that the comparison of theoretical models on the one side, and the combined observational data gathered by multiple surveys on the other side, are key ingredients to understand and disentangle the structure and formation history of the Milky Way.
Recurrences in past climates
(2023)
Our ability to predict the state of a system relies on its tendency to recur to states it has visited before. Recurrence also pervades common intuitions about the systems we are most familiar with: daily routines, social rituals and the return of the seasons are just a few relatable examples. To this end, recurrence plots (RP) provide a systematic framework to quantify the recurrence of states. Despite their conceptual simplicity, they are a versatile tool in the study of observational data. The global climate is a complex system for which an understanding based on observational data is not only of academical relevance, but vital for the predurance of human societies within the planetary boundaries. Contextualizing current global climate change, however, requires observational data far beyond the instrumental period. The palaeoclimate record offers a valuable archive of proxy data but demands methodological approaches that adequately address its complexities. In this regard, the following dissertation aims at devising novel and further developing existing methods in the framework of recurrence analysis (RA). The proposed research questions focus on using RA to capture scale-dependent properties in nonlinear time series and tailoring recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to characterize seasonal variability in palaeoclimate records (‘Palaeoseasonality’).
In the first part of this thesis, we focus on the methodological development of novel approaches in RA. The predictability of nonlinear (palaeo)climate time series is limited by abrupt transitions between regimes that exhibit entirely different dynamical complexity (e.g. crossing of ‘tipping points’). These possibly depend on characteristic time scales. RPs are well-established for detecting transitions and capture scale-dependencies, yet few approaches have combined both aspects. We apply existing concepts from the study of self-similar textures to RPs to detect abrupt transitions, considering the most relevant time scales. This combination of methods further results in the definition of a novel recurrence based nonlinear dependence measure. Quantifying lagged interactions between multiple variables is a common problem, especially in the characterization of high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed ‘recurrence flow’ measure of nonlinear dependence offers an elegant way to characterize such couplings. For spatially extended complex systems, the coupled dynamics of local variables result in the emergence of spatial patterns. These patterns tend to recur in time. Based on this observation, we propose a novel method that entails dynamically distinct regimes of atmospheric circulation based on their recurrent spatial patterns. Bridging the two parts of this dissertation, we next turn to methodological advances of RA for the study of Palaeoseasonality. Observational series of palaeoclimate ‘proxy’ records involve inherent limitations, such as irregular temporal sampling. We reveal biases in the RQA of time series with a non-stationary sampling rate and propose a correction scheme.
In the second part of this thesis, we proceed with applications in Palaeoseasonality. A review of common and promising time series analysis methods shows that numerous valuable tools exist, but their sound application requires adaptions to archive-specific limitations and consolidating transdisciplinary knowledge. Next, we study stalagmite proxy records from the Central Pacific as sensitive recorders of mid-Holocene El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. The records’ remarkably high temporal resolution allows to draw links between ENSO and seasonal dynamics, quantified by RA. The final study presented here examines how seasonal predictability could play a role for the stability of agricultural societies. The Classic Maya underwent a period of sociopolitical disintegration that has been linked to drought events. Based on seasonally resolved stable isotope records from Yok Balum cave in Belize, we propose a measure of seasonal predictability. It unveils the potential role declining seasonal predictability could have played in destabilizing agricultural and sociopolitical systems of Classic Maya populations.
The methodological approaches and applications presented in this work reveal multiple exciting future research avenues, both for RA and the study of Palaeoseasonality.
Recent years witnessed a vast advent of stalagmites as palaeoclimate archives. The multitude of geochemical and physical proxies and a promise of a precise and accurate age model greatly appeal to palaeoclimatologists. Although substantial progress was made in speleothem-based palaeoclimate research and despite high-resolution records from low-latitudinal regions, proving that palaeo-environmental changes can be archived on sub-annual to millennial time scales our comprehension of climate dynamics is still fragmentary. This is in particular true for the summer monsoon system on the Indian subcontinent. The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is an integral part of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). As this rainfall belt migrates northward during boreal summer, it brings monsoonal rainfall. ISM strength depends however on a variety of factors, including snow cover in Central Asia and oceanic conditions in the Indic and Pacific. Presently, many of the factors influencing the ISM are known, though their exact forcing mechanism and mutual relations remain ambiguous. Attempts to make an accurate prediction of rainfall intensity and frequency and drought recurrence, which is extremely important for South Asian countries, resemble a puzzle game; all interaction need to fall into the right place to obtain a complete picture. My thesis aims to create a faithful picture of climate change in India, covering the last 11,000 ka. NE India represents a key region for the Bay of Bengal (BoB) branch of the ISM, as it is here where the monsoon splits into a northwestward and a northeastward directed arm. The Meghalaya Plateau is the first barrier for northward moving air masses and receives excessive summer rainfall, while the winter season is very dry. The proximity of Meghalaya to the Tibetan Plateau on the one hand and the BoB on the other hand make the study area a key location for investigating the interaction between different forcings that governs the ISM. A basis for the interpretation of palaeoclimate records, and a first important outcome of my thesis is a conceptual model which explains the observed pattern of seasonal changes in stable isotopes (d18O and d2H) in rainfall. I show that although in tropical and subtropical regions the amount effect is commonly called to explain strongly depleted isotope values during enhanced rainfall, alone it cannot account for observed rainwater isotope variability in Meghalaya. Monitoring of rainwater isotopes shows no expected negative correlation between precipitation amount and d18O of rainfall. In turn I find evidence that the runoff from high elevations carries an inherited isotopic signature into the BoB, where during the ISM season the freshwater builds a strongly depleted plume on top of the marine water. The vapor originating from this plume is likely to memorize' and transmit further very negative d18O values. The lack of data does not allow for quantication of this plume effect' on isotopes in rainfall over Meghalaya but I suggest that it varies on seasonal to millennial timescales, depending on the runoff amount and source characteristics. The focal point of my thesis is the extraction of climatic signals archived in stalagmites from NE India. High uranium concentration in the stalagmites ensured excellent age control required for successful high-resolution climate reconstructions. Stable isotope (d18O and d13C) and grey-scale data allow unprecedented insights into millennial to seasonal dynamics of the summer and winter monsoon in NE India. ISM strength (i. e. rainfall amount) is recorded in changes in d18Ostalagmites. The d13C signal, reflecting drip rate changes, renders a powerful proxy for dry season conditions, and shows similarities to temperature-related changes on the Tibetan Plateau. A sub-annual grey-scale profile supports a concept of lower drip rate and slower stalagmite growth during dry conditions. During the Holocene, ISM followed a millennial-scale decrease of insolation, with decadal to centennial failures resulting from atmospheric changes. The period of maximum rainfall and enhanced seasonality corresponds to the Holocene Thermal Optimum observed in Europe. After a phase of rather stable conditions, 4.5 kyr ago, the strengthening ENSO system dominated the ISM. Strong El Nino events weakened the ISM, especially when in concert with positive Indian Ocean dipole events. The strongest droughts of the last 11 kyr are recorded during the past 2 kyr. Using the advantage of a well-dated stalagmite record at hand I tested the application of laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) to detect sub-annual to sub-decadal changes in element concentrations in stalagmites. The development of a large ablation cell allows for ablating sample slabs of up to 22 cm total length. Each analyzed element is a potential proxy for different climatic parameters. Combining my previous results with the LAICP- MS-generated data shows that element concentration depends not only on rainfall amount and associated leaching from the soil. Additional factors, like biological activity and hydrogeochemical conditions in the soil and vadose zone can eventually affect the element content in drip water and in stalagmites. I present a theoretical conceptual model for my study site to explain how climatic signals can be transmitted and archived in stalagmite carbonate. Further, I establish a first 1500 year long element record, reconstructing rainfall variability. Additionally, I hypothesize that volcanic eruptions, producing large amounts of sulfuric acid, can influence soil acidity and hence element mobilization.
Sustainable urban growth
(2022)
This dissertation explores the determinants for sustainable and socially optimalgrowth in a city. Two general equilibrium models establish the base for this evaluation, each adding its puzzle piece to the urban sustainability discourse and examining the role of non-market-based and market-based policies for balanced growth and welfare improvements in different theory settings. Sustainable urban growth either calls for policy actions or a green energy transition. Further, R&D market failures can pose severe challenges to the sustainability of urban growth and the social optimality of decentralized allocation decisions. Still, a careful (holistic) combination of policy instruments can achieve sustainable growth and even be first best.
Technological progress allows for producing ever more complex predictive models on the basis of increasingly big datasets. For risk management of natural hazards, a multitude of models is needed as basis for decision-making, e.g. in the evaluation of observational data, for the prediction of hazard scenarios, or for statistical estimates of expected damage. The question arises, how modern modelling approaches like machine learning or data-mining can be meaningfully deployed in this thematic field. In addition, with respect to data availability and accessibility, the trend is towards open data. Topic of this thesis is therefore to investigate the possibilities and limitations of machine learning and open geospatial data in the field of flood risk modelling in the broad sense. As this overarching topic is broad in scope, individual relevant aspects are identified and inspected in detail.
A prominent data source in the flood context is satellite-based mapping of inundated areas, for example made openly available by the Copernicus service of the European Union. Great expectations are directed towards these products in scientific literature, both for acute support of relief forces during emergency response action, and for modelling via hydrodynamic models or for damage estimation. Therefore, a focus of this work was set on evaluating these flood masks. From the observation that the quality of these products is insufficient in forested and built-up areas, a procedure for subsequent improvement via machine learning was developed. This procedure is based on a classification algorithm that only requires training data from a particular class to be predicted, in this specific case data of flooded areas, but not of the negative class (dry areas). The application for hurricane Harvey in Houston shows the high potential of this method, which depends on the quality of the initial flood mask.
Next, it is investigated how much the predicted statistical risk from a process-based model chain is dependent on implemented physical process details. Thereby it is demonstrated what a risk study based on established models can deliver. Even for fluvial flooding, such model chains are already quite complex, though, and are hardly available for compound or cascading events comprising torrential rainfall, flash floods, and other processes. In the fourth chapter of this thesis it is therefore tested whether machine learning based on comprehensive damage data can offer a more direct path towards damage modelling, that avoids explicit conception of such a model chain. For that purpose, a state-collected dataset of damaged buildings from the severe El Niño event 2017 in Peru is used. In this context, the possibilities of data-mining for extracting process knowledge are explored as well. It can be shown that various openly available geodata sources contain useful information for flood hazard and damage modelling for complex events, e.g. satellite-based rainfall measurements, topographic and hydrographic information, mapped settlement areas, as well as indicators from spectral data. Further, insights on damaging processes are discovered, which mainly are in line with prior expectations. The maximum intensity of rainfall, for example, acts stronger in cities and steep canyons, while the sum of rain was found more informative in low-lying river catchments and forested areas. Rural areas of Peru exhibited higher vulnerability in the presented study compared to urban areas. However, the general limitations of the methods and the dependence on specific datasets and algorithms also become obvious.
In the overarching discussion, the different methods – process-based modelling, predictive machine learning, and data-mining – are evaluated with respect to the overall research questions. In the case of hazard observation it seems that a focus on novel algorithms makes sense for future research. In the subtopic of hazard modelling, especially for river floods, the improvement of physical models and the integration of process-based and statistical procedures is suggested. For damage modelling the large and representative datasets necessary for the broad application of machine learning are still lacking. Therefore, the improvement of the data basis in the field of damage is currently regarded as more important than the selection of algorithms.
Strategic uncertainty is the uncertainty that players face with respect to the purposeful behavior of other players in an interactive decision situation. Our paper develops a new method for measuring strategic-uncertainty attitudes and distinguishing them from risk and ambiguity attitudes. We vary the source of uncertainty (whether strategic or not) across conditions in a ceteris paribus manner. We elicit certainty equivalents of participating in two strategic 2x2 games (a stag-hunt and a market-entry game) as well as certainty equivalents of related lotteries that yield the same possible payoffs with exogenously given probabilities (risk) and lotteries with unknown probabilities (ambiguity). We provide a structural model of uncertainty attitudes that allows us to measure a preference for or an aversion against the source of uncertainty, as well as optimism or pessimism regarding the desired outcome. We document systematic attitudes towards strategic uncertainty that vary across contexts. Under strategic complementarity [substitutability], the majority of participants tend to be pessimistic [optimistic] regarding the desired outcome. However, preferences for the source of uncertainty are distributed around zero.
Leadership plays an important role for the efficient and fair solution of social dilemmas but the effectiveness of a leader can vary substantially. Two main factors of leadership impact are the ability to induce high contributions by all group members and the (expected) fair use of power. Participants in our experiment decide about contributions to a public good. After all contributions are made, the leader can choose how much of the joint earnings to assign to herself; the remainder is distributed equally among the followers. Using machine learning techniques, we study whether the content of initial open statements by the group members predicts their behavior as a leader and whether groups are able to identify such clues and endogenously appoint a “good” leader to solve the dilemma. We find that leaders who promise fairness are more likely to behave fairly, and that followers appoint as leaders those who write more explicitly about fairness and efficiency. However, in their contribution decision, followers focus on the leader’s first-move contribution and place less importance on the content of the leader’s statements.
The use of nano zerovalent iron (nZVI) for environmental remediation is a promising new technique for in situ remediation. Due to its high surface area and high reactivity, nZVI is able to dechlorinate organic contaminants and render them harmless. Limited mobility, due to fast aggregation and sedimentation of nZVI, limits the capability for source and plume remediation. Carbo-Iron is a newly developed material consisting of activated carbon particles (d50 = 0,8 µm) that are plated with nZVI particles. These particles combine the mobility of activated carbon and the reactivity of nZVI. This paper presents the first results of the transport experiments.
We introduce and discuss a number of issues that arise in the process of building a finite-state morphological analyzer for Urdu, in particular issues with potential ambiguity and non-concatenative morphology. Our approach allows for an underlyingly similar treatment of both Urdu and Hindi via a cascade of finite-state transducers that transliterates the very different scripts into a common ASCII transcription system. As this transliteration system is based on the XFST tools that the Urdu/Hindi common morphological analyzer is also implemented in, no compatibility problems arise.