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Due to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.
Context.
The supergiant ionized shell SMC-SGS 1 (DEM 167), which is located in the outer Wing of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), resembles structures that originate from an energetic star-formation event and later stimulate star formation as they expand into the ambient medium. However, stellar populations within and surrounding SMC-SGS 1 tell a different story. Aims. We present a photometric study of the stellar population encompassed by SMC-SGS 1 in order to trace the history of such a large structure and its potential influence on star formation within the low-density, low-metallicity environment of the SMC.
Methods.
For a stellar population that is physically associated with SMC-SGS 1, we combined near-ultraviolet (NUV) photometry from the Galaxy Evolution Explorer with archival optical (V-band) photometry from the ESO Danish 1.54 m Telescope. Given their colors and luminosities, we estimated stellar ages and masses by matching observed photometry to theoretical stellar isochrone models. Results. We find that the investigated region supports an active, extended star-formation event spanning similar to 25-40 Myr ago, as well as continued star formation into the present. Using a standard initial mass function, we infer a lower bound on the stellar mass from this period of similar to 3 x 10(4) M-circle dot, corresponding to a star-formation intensity of similar to 6 x 10(-3) M-circle dot kpc(-2) yr(-1).
Conclusions.
The spatial and temporal distributions of young stars encompassed by SMC-SGS 1 imply a slow, consistent progression of star formation over millions of years. Ongoing star formation, both along the edge and interior to SMC-SGS 1, suggests a combined stimulated and stochastic mode of star formation within the SMC Wing. We note that a slow expansion of the shell within this low-density environment may preserve molecular clouds within the volume of the shell, leaving them to form stars even after nearby stellar feedback expels local gas and dust.
The DNA interaction with cis-isomers of photosensitive azobenzene-containing surfactants was studied by both experimental methods and computer simulation. It was shown that before the organization of micelles, such surfactants in the cis-conformation form associates of only a single type with a disordered orientation of molecules. In contrast, for trans-isomers, there exist two types of associates with head-to-head or head-to-tail orientations of molecules in dependence on salt concentration in a solution. The comparison of cis- and trans-isomer binding to DNA and the influence of salt concentration on the formation of their complexes with DNA were studied. It was shown that cis-isomers interact with phosphate groups of DNA and that their molecules were also located along the minor groove of DNA.
It is demonstrated for the case of photo-excited ferrocyanide how time-resolved soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy in transmission geometry at the ligand K-edge and metal L-3-edge provides quantitatively equivalent valence electronic structure information, where signatures of photo-oxidation are assessed locally at the metal as well as the ligand. This allows for a direct and independent quantification of the number of photo-oxidized molecules at two soft X-ray absorption edges highlighting the sensitivity of X-ray absorption spectroscopy to the valence orbital occupation of 3d transition metal complexes throughout the soft X-ray range.
While the problem of the identification of mechanisms of hydrogen-assisted damage has and is being thoroughly studied, the quantitative analysis of such damage still lacks suitable tools. In fact, while, for instance, electron microscopy yields excellent characterization, the quantitative analysis of damage requires at the same time large field-of-views and high spatial resolution. Synchrotron X-ray refraction techniques do possess both features. Herein, it is shown how synchrotron X-ray refraction computed tomography (SXRCT) can quantify damage induced by hydrogen embrittlement in a lean duplex steel, yielding results that overperform even those achievable by synchrotron X-ray absorption computed tomography. As already reported in the literature, but this time using a nondestructive technique, it is shown that the hydrogen charge does not penetrate to the center of tensile specimens. By the comparison between virgin and hydrogen-charged specimens, it is deduced that cracks in the specimen bulk are due to the rolling process rather than hydrogen-assisted. It is shown that (micro)cracks propagate from the surface of tensile specimens to the interior with increasing applied strain, and it is deduced that a significant crack propagation can only be observed short before rupture.
We analyze historical data of stock-market prices for multiple financial indices using the concept of delay-time averaging for the financial time series (FTS). The region of validity of our recent theoretical predictions [Cherstvy A G et al 2017 New J. Phys. 19 063045] for the standard and delayed time-averaged mean-squared 'displacements' (TAMSDs) of the historical FTS is extended to all lag times. As the first novel element, we perform extensive computer simulations of the stochastic differential equation describing geometric Brownian motion (GBM) which demonstrate a quantitative agreement with the analytical long-term price-evolution predictions in terms of the delayed TAMSD (for all stock-market indices in crisis-free times). Secondly, we present a robust procedure of determination of the model parameters of GBM via fitting the features of the price-evolution dynamics in the FTS for stocks and cryptocurrencies. The employed concept of single-trajectory-based time averaging can serve as a predictive tool (proxy) for a mathematically based assessment and rationalization of probabilistic trends in the evolution of stock-market prices.
We report a comparison of two photonic techniques for single-molecule sensing: fluorescence nanoscopy and optoplasmonic sensing. As the test system, oligonucleotides with and without fluorescent labels are transiently hybridized to complementary "docking" strands attached to gold nanorods. Comparing the measured single-molecule kinetics helps to examine the influence of the fluorescent labels as well as factors arising from different sensing geometries. Our results demonstrate that DNA dissociation is not significantly altered by the fluorescent labels and that DNA association is affected by geometric factors in the two techniques. These findings open the door to exploiting plasmonic sensing and fluorescence nanoscopy in a complementary fashion, which will aid in building more powerful sensors and uncovering the intricate effects that influence the behavior of single molecules.
Master equations are a vital tool to model heat flow through nanoscale thermodynamic systems. Most practical devices are made up of interacting subsystems and are often modelled using either local master equations (LMEs) or global master equations (GMEs). While the limiting cases in which either the LME or the GME breaks down are well understood, there exists a 'grey area' in which both equations capture steady-state heat currents reliably but predict very different transient heat flows. In such cases, which one should we trust? Here we show that, when it comes to dynamics, the local approach can be more reliable than the global one for weakly interacting open quantum systems. This is due to the fact that the secular approximation, which underpins the GME, can destroy key dynamical features. To illustrate this, we consider a minimal transport setup and show that its LME displays exceptional points (EPs). These singularities have been observed in a superconducting-circuit realisation of the model [1]. However, in stark contrast to experimental evidence, no EPs appear within the global approach. We then show that the EPs are a feature built into the Redfield equation, which is more accurate than the LME and the GME. Finally, we show that the local approach emerges as the weak-interaction limit of the Redfield equation, and that it entirely avoids the secular approximation.
Due to their electrically polarized air-filled internal pores, optimized ferroelectrets exhibit a remarkable piezoelectric response, making them suitable for energy harvesting. Expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE) ferroelectret films are laminated with two fluorinated-ethylene-propylene (FEP) copolymer films and internally polarized by corona discharge. Poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):poly(styrene sulfonate) (PEDOT:PSS)-coated spandex fabric is employed for the electrodes to assemble an all-organic ferroelectret nanogenerator (FENG). The outer electret-plus-electrode double layers form active device layers with deformable electric dipoles that strongly contribute to the overall piezoelectric response in the proposed concept of wearable nanogenerators. Thus, the FENG with spandex electrodes generates a short-circuit current which is twice as high as that with aluminum electrodes. The stacking sequence spandex/FEP/ePTFE/FEP/ePTFE/FEP/spandex with an average pore size of 3 mu m in the ePTFE films yields the best overall performance, which is also demonstrated by the displacement-versus-electric-field loop results. The all-organic FENGs are stable up to 90 degrees C and still perform well 9 months after being polarized. An optimized FENG makes three light emitting diodes (LEDs) blink twice with the energy generated during a single footstep. The new all-organic FENG can thus continuously power wearable electronic devices and is easily integrated, for example, with clothing, other textiles, or shoe insoles.
We study the diffusive motion of a particle in a subharmonic potential of the form U(x) = |x|( c ) (0 < c < 2) driven by long-range correlated, stationary fractional Gaussian noise xi ( alpha )(t) with 0 < alpha <= 2. In the absence of the potential the particle exhibits free fractional Brownian motion with anomalous diffusion exponent alpha. While for an harmonic external potential the dynamics converges to a Gaussian stationary state, from extensive numerical analysis we here demonstrate that stationary states for shallower than harmonic potentials exist only as long as the relation c > 2(1 - 1/alpha) holds. We analyse the motion in terms of the mean squared displacement and (when it exists) the stationary probability density function. Moreover we discuss analogies of non-stationarity of Levy flights in shallow external potentials.
We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete-and continuous-time versions. The distributions of infection intensity and recovery period may take an arbitrary form. By taking corresponding choice of these functions, it is shown that the model reduces to the classical Markovian case. The epidemic threshold is analytically determined for arbitrary functions of infectivity and recovery and verified numerically. The relevance of the model is shown by modeling the first wave of the epidemic in Italy, Spain and the UK, in the spring, 2020.
In our fast-changing world, human-machine interfaces (HMIs) are of ever-increasing importance. Among the most ubiquitous examples are touchscreens that most people are familiar with from their smartphones. The quality of such an HMI can be improved by adding haptic feedback-an imitation of using mechanical buttons-to the touchscreen. Thin-film actuators on the basis of electro-mechanically active polymers (EAPs), with the electroactive material sandwiched between two compliant electrodes, offer a promising technology for haptic surfaces. In thin-film technology, the thickness and the number of stacked layers of the electroactive dielectric are key parameters for tuning a system. Therefore, we have experimentally investigated the influence of the thickness of a single EAP layer on the electrical and the electro-mechanical performance of the transducer. In order to achieve high electro-mechanical actuator outputs, we have employed relaxor-ferroelectric ter-fluoropolymers that can be screen-printed. By means of a model-based approach, we have also directly compared single- and multi-layer actuators, thus providing guidelines for optimized transducer configurations with respect to the system requirements of haptic applications for which the operation frequency is of particular importance.
Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)
(2020)
The Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) is applied to the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last two glacial cycles (approximate to 210 000 years) with a resolution of 16 km. An ensemble of 256 model runs is analyzed in which four relevant model parameters have been systematically varied using full-factorial parameter sampling. Parameters and plausible parameter ranges have been identified in a companion paper (Albrecht et al., 2020) and are associated with ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and bed deformation and represent distinct classes of model uncertainties. The model is scored against both modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding-line locations, elevation-age data, ice thickness, surface velocities and uplift rates. An aggregated score is computed for each ensemble member that measures the overall model-data misfit, including measurement uncertainty in terms of a Gaussian error model (Briggs and Tarasov, 2013). The statistical method used to analyze the ensemble simulation results follows closely the simple averaging method described in Pollard et al. (2016).
This analysis reveals clusters of best-fit parameter combinations, and hence a likely range of relevant model and boundary parameters, rather than individual best-fit parameters. The ensemble of reconstructed histories of Antarctic Ice Sheet volumes provides a score-weighted likely range of sea-level contributions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) of 9.4 +/- 4.1m (or 6.5 +/- 2.0 x 10(6) km(3)), which is at the upper range of most previous studies. The last deglaciation occurs in all ensemble simulations after around 12 000 years before present and hence after the meltwater pulse 1A (MWP1a). Our ensemble analysis also provides an estimate of parametric uncertainty bounds for the present-day state that can be used for PISM projections of future sea-level contributions from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Transition path dynamics have been widely studied in chemical, physical, and technological systems. Mostly, the transition path dynamics is obtained for smooth barrier potentials, for instance, generic inverse-parabolic shapes. We here present analytical results for the mean transition path time, the distribution of transition path times, the mean transition path velocity, and the mean transition path shape in a rough inverted parabolic potential function under the driving of Gaussian white noise. These are validated against extensive simulations using the forward flux sampling scheme in parallel computations. We observe how precisely the potential roughness, the barrier height, and the noise intensity contribute to the particle transition in the rough inverted barrier potential.
A comprehensive photometric and spectroscopic analysis of the variable TYC 5532-1333-1 (TYC) along with an investigation of its orbital period variation is presented for the first time. The B- and V-band photometric study indicates that TYC is an intermediate contact binary with degree of contact and mass ratio of 34 per cent and similar to 0.24, respectively. The derived equivalent widths from the spectroscopic study of H alpha and Na-I lines reveal phase-dependent variation and mutual correlation. Using the available times of minimum light, an investigation of orbital period variation shows a long-term decrease at a rate of 3.98 x 10(-6) d yr(-1). Expected causes for such decline in the orbital period could be angular momentum loss and a quasi-sinusoidal variation due to light-time effect probably caused by a third-body companion. The minimum mass of the third body (M-3) was derived to be 0.65 M-circle dot. Our presented study is an attempt to evaluate and understand the evolutionary state of above-mentioned neglected contact binary.
The PM6:Y6 bulk-heterojunction (BHJ) blend system achieves high short-circuit current (J(SC)) values in thick photovoltaic junctions. Here we analyse these solar cells to understand the observed independence of the short-circuit current upon photoactive layer thickness. We employ a range of optoelectronic measurements and analyses, including Mott-Schottky analysis, CELIV, photoinduced absorption spectroscopy, mobility measurements and simulations, to conclude that, the invariant photocurrent for the devices with different active layer thicknesses is associated with the Y6's diffusion length exceeding 300 nm in case of a 300 nm thick cell. This is despite unintentional doping that occurs in PM6 and the associated space-charge effect, which is expected to be even more profound upon photogeneration. This extraordinarily long diffusion length - which is an order of magnitude larger than typical values for organics - dominates transport in the flat-band region of thick junctions. Our work suggests that the performance of the doped PM6:Y6 organic solar cells resembles that of inorganic devices with diffusion transport playing a pivotal role. Ultimately, this is expected to be a key requirement for the fabrication of efficient, high-photocurrent, thick organic solar cells.
An extinction-free estimator of the star formation rate (SFR) of galaxies is critical for understanding the high-redshift universe. To this end, the nearly linear, tight correlation of far-infrared (FIR), and radio luminosity of star-forming galaxies is widely used. While the FIR is linked to massive star formation, which also generates shock-accelerated cosmic-ray (CR) electrons and radio synchrotron emission, a detailed understanding of the underlying physics is still lacking. Hence, we perform three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) simulations of isolated galaxies over a broad range of halo masses and SFRs using the moving-mesh code AREPO, and evolve the CR proton energy density self-consistently. In post-processing, we calculate the steady-state spectra of primary, shock-accelerated and secondary CR electrons, which result from hadronic CR proton interactions with the interstellar medium. The resulting total radio luminosities correlate with the FIR luminosities as observed and are dominated by primary CR electrons if we account for anisotropic CR diffusion. The increasing contribution of secondary emission up to 30 per cent in starbursts is compensated by the larger bremsstrahlung and Coulomb losses. CR electrons are in the calorimetric limit and lose most of their energy through inverse Compton interactions with star light and cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons while less energy is converted into synchrotron emission. This implies steep steady-state synchrotron spectra in starbursts. Interestingly, we find that thermal free-free emission flattens the total radio spectra at high radio frequencies and reconciles calorimetric theory with observations while free-free absorption explains the observed low-frequency flattening towards the central regions of starbursts.
Neutrophil granulocytes are essential for the first host defense. After leaving the blood circulation they migrate efficiently towards sites of inflammation. They are guided by chemoattractants released from cells within the inflammatory foci. On a cellular level, directional migration is a consequence of cellular front-rear asymmetry which is induced by the concentration gradient of the chemoattractants. The generation and maintenance of this asymmetry, however, is not yet fully understood. Here we analyzed the paths of chemotacting neutrophils with different stochastic models to gain further insight into the underlying mechanisms. Wildtype chemotacting neutrophils show an anomalous superdiffusive behavior. CXCR2 blockade and TRPC6-knockout cause the tempering of temporal correlations and a reduction of chemotaxis. Importantly, such tempering is found both in vitro and in vivo. These findings indicate that the maintenance of anomalous dynamics is crucial for chemotactic behavior and the search efficiency of neutrophils.
The motility of neutrophils and their ability to sense and to react to chemoattractants in their environment are of central importance for the innate immunity. Neutrophils are guided towards sites of inflammation following the activation of G-protein coupled chemoattractant receptors such as CXCR2 whose signaling strongly depends on the activity of Ca2+ permeable TRPC6 channels. It is the aim of this study to analyze data sets obtained in vitro (murine neutrophils) and in vivo (zebrafish neutrophils) with a stochastic mathematical model to gain deeper insight into the underlying mechanisms. The model is based on the analysis of trajectories of individual neutrophils. Bayesian data analysis, including the covariances of positions for fractional Brownian motion as well as for exponentially and power-law tempered model variants, allows the estimation of parameters and model selection. Our model-based analysis reveals that wildtype neutrophils show pure superdiffusive fractional Brownian motion. This so-called anomalous dynamics is characterized by temporal long-range correlations for the movement into the direction of the chemotactic CXCL1 gradient. Pure superdiffusion is absent vertically to this gradient. This points to an asymmetric 'memory' of the migratory machinery, which is found both in vitro and in vivo. CXCR2 blockade and TRPC6-knockout cause tempering of temporal correlations in the chemotactic gradient. This can be interpreted as a progressive loss of memory, which leads to a marked reduction of chemotaxis and search efficiency of neutrophils. In summary, our findings indicate that spatially differential regulation of anomalous dynamics appears to play a central role in guiding efficient chemotactic behavior.
SwSt 1 (PN G001.5-06.7) is a bright and compact planetary nebula containing a late [WC]-type central star. Previous studies suggested that the nebular and stellar lines are slowly changing with time. We studied new and archival optical and ultraviolet spectra of the object. The [O III] 4959 and 5007 angstrom to H beta line flux ratios decreased between about 1976 and 1997/2015. The stellar spectrum also shows changes between these epochs. We modelled the stellar and nebular spectra observed at different epochs. The analyses indicate a drop of the stellar temperature from about 42 kK to 40.5 kK between 1976 and 1993. We do not detect significant changes between 1993 and 2015. The observations show that the star performed a loop in the H-R diagram. This is possible when a shell source is activated during its post-AGB evolution. We infer that a late thermal pulse (LTP) experienced by a massive post-AGB star can explain the evolution of the central star. Such a star does not expand significantly as the result of the LTP and does not became a born-again red giant. However, the released energy can remove the tiny H envelope of the star.
A scheme for simulations of resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (RIXS) cross-sections within time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) applying the restricted subspace approximation (RSA) is presented. Therein both occupied core and valence Kohn-Sham orbitals are included in the donor-space, while the accepting virtual orbital space in the linear response TD-DFT equations is restricted to efficiently compute both the valence- and core-excited states of the many electron system. This yields a consistent description of all states contributing to the RIXS scattering process within a single calculation. The introduced orbital truncation allows to automatize the method and facilitates RIXS simulations for systems considerably larger than ones accessible with wave-function based methods. Using the nitrogen K-edge RIXS spectra of 2-thiopyridone and its deprotonated anion as a showcase, the method is benchmarked for different exchange-correlation functionals, the impact of the RSA is evaluated, and the effects of explicit solvation are discussed. Improvements compared to simulations in the frozen orbital approximation are also assessed. The general applicability of the framework is further tested by comparison to experimental data from the literature. The use of TD-DFT core-excited states to the calculation of vibrationally resolved RIXS spectra is also investigated by combining potential energy scans along relevant coordinates with wave packet simulations.