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The eastern flanks of the Central Andes are characterized by deep convection, exposing them to hydrometeorological extreme events, often resulting in floods and a variety of mass movements. We assessed the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall trends and the changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events (ae<yen>95th percentile) along an E-W traverse across the southern Central Andes using rain-gauge and high-resolution gridded datasets (CPC-uni and TRMM 3B42 V7). We generated different climate indices and made three key observations: (1) an increase of the annual rainfall has occurred at the transition between low (< 0.5 km) and intermediate (0.5-3 km) elevations between 1950 and 2014. Also, rainfall increases during the wet season and, to a lesser degree, decreases during the dry season. Increasing trends in annual total amounts characterize the period 1979-2014 in the arid, high-elevation southern Andean Plateau, whereas trend reversals with decreasing annual total amounts were found at low elevations. (2) For all analyzed periods, we observed small or no changes in the median values of the rainfall-frequency distribution, but significant trends with intensification or attenuation in the 95th percentile. (3) In the southern Andean Plateau, extreme rainfall events exhibit trends towards increasing magnitude and, to a lesser degree, frequency during the wet season, at least since 1979. Our analysis revealed that low (< 0.5 km), intermediate (0.5-3 km), and high-elevation (> 3 km) areas respond differently to changing climate conditions, and the transition zone between low and intermediate elevations is characterized by the most significant changes.
Nanoscale Thermal Transfer
(2017)
Socioeconomic status, parent report of children’s early language skills, and late literacy skills
(2017)
Previous research on the longitudinal prediction of literacy development has focused mainly on the relationship between early cognitive/language skills and late literacy skills. The present study aimed to test the reliability of a number of measures reported by parents as compared to measuring cognitive and language skills in predicting subsequent reading achievement. Two hundred sixty-two Chinese children were administered four cognitive and language skills over three years at the preliterate stage. Additional information on children’s family socioeconomic status (SES), children’s early language skills, familial reading performance and habits, and familial handedness based on the observations of parents was collected. Performance on these variables in relation to subsequent literacy skills at 11 years of age was examined. SES and children’s early language skills significantly predicted subsequent literacy skills. Even with a number of cognitive and language skills statistically controlled, parental reports of children’s early language skills still contributed to reading comprehension. Poor readers defined at 11 years of age had lagged behind in early language skills, as well as family reading performance and habits, as compared to typically developing readers. These findings suggest that SES and parental estimates of children’s early language skills are useful for predicting children’s subsequent reading achievement.
Do cities represent sources, sinks or isolated islands for urban wild boar population structure?
(2017)
We show a connection between the CDE′ inequality introduced in Horn et al. (Volume doubling, Poincaré inequality and Gaussian heat kernel estimate for nonnegative curvature graphs. arXiv:1411.5087v2, 2014) and the CDψ inequality established in Münch (Li–Yau inequality on finite graphs via non-linear curvature dimension conditions. arXiv:1412.3340v1, 2014). In particular, we introduce a CDφψ inequality as a slight generalization of CDψ which turns out to be equivalent to CDE′ with appropriate choices of φ and ψ. We use this to prove that the CDE′ inequality implies the classical CD inequality on graphs, and that the CDE′ inequality with curvature bound zero holds on Ricci-flat graphs.
Physical size modulates the efficiency of digit comparison, depending on whether the relation of numerical magnitude and physical size is congruent or incongruent (Besner & Coltheart, Neuropsychologia, 17, 467–472, 1979), the number-size congruency effect (NSCE). In addition, Henik and Tzelgov (Memory & Cognition, 10, 389–395, 1982) first reported an NSCE for the reverse task of comparing the physical size of digits such that the numerical magnitude of digits modulated the time required to compare their physical sizes. Does the NSCE in physical comparisons simply reflect a number-mediated bias mechanism related to making decisions and selecting responses about the digit’s sizes? Alternatively, or in addition, the NSCE might indicate a true increase in the ability to discriminate small and large font sizes when these sizes are congruent with the digit’s symbolic numerical meaning, over and above response bias effects. We present a new research design that permits us to apply signal detection theory to a task that required observers to judge the physical size of digits. Our results clearly demonstrate that the NSCE cannot be reduced to mere response bias effects, and that genuine sensitivity gains for congruent number-size pairings contribute to the NSCE.
Ventral striatum and amygdala activity as convergence sites for early adversity and conduct disorder
(2017)
Childhood family adversity (CFA) increases the risk for conduct disorder (CD) and has been associated with alterations in regions of affective processing like ventral striatum (VS) and amygdala. However, no study so far has demonstrated neural converging effects of CFA and CD in the same sample. At age 25 years, functional MRI data during two affective tasks, i.e. a reward (N = 171) and a face-matching paradigm (N = 181) and anatomical scans (N = 181) were acquired in right-handed currently healthy participants of an epidemiological study followed since birth. CFA during childhood was determined using a standardized parent interview. Disruptive behaviors and CD diagnoses during childhood and adolescence were obtained by diagnostic interview (2–19 years), temperamental reward dependence was assessed by questionnaire (15 and 19 years).
CFA predicted increased CD and amygdala volume. Both exposure to CFA and CD were associated with a decreased VS response during reward anticipation and blunted amygdala activity during face-matching. CD mediated the effect of CFA on brain activity. Temperamental reward dependence was negatively correlated with CFA and CD and positively with VS activity. These findings underline the detrimental effects of CFA on the offspring's affective processing and support the importance of early postnatal intervention programs aiming to reduce childhood adversity factors.
Ancient genomes have revolutionized our understanding of Holocene prehistory and, particularly, the Neolithic transition in western Eurasia. In contrast, East Asia has so far received little attention, despite representing a core region at which the Neolithic transition took place independently ~3 millennia after its onset in the Near East. We report genome-wide data from two hunter-gatherers from Devil’s Gate, an early Neolithic cave site (dated to ~7.7 thousand years ago) located in East Asia, on the border between Russia and Korea. Both of these individuals are genetically most similar to geographically close modern populations from the Amur Basin, all speaking Tungusic languages, and, in particular, to the Ulchi. The similarity to nearby modern populations and the low levels of additional genetic material in the Ulchi imply a high level of genetic continuity in this region during the Holocene, a pattern that markedly contrasts with that reported for Europe.
Veto player theory is a powerful approach to comparative politics. This article argues that the debate about its explanatory success would benefit from more systematic distinctions. The theory not only comes in different theoretical variants, it is also used in radically different ways empirically. Starting from recent debates about the ‘testing’ of theoretical models, the article distinguishes five ways in which theoretical models can be used empirically: contrastive, axiomatic, exploratory, presumptive and modular. The typology is applied to veto player theory and illustrated with exemplary studies and debates. The article concludes that each type raises different questions that should be answered in individual studies. Moreover, while veto player theory has an excellent track record on four empirical uses, the picture on its contrastive use is far more nuanced. More explicitly contrastive testing of the theory is desirable.
The origin of flowers has puzzled plant biologists ever since Darwin referred to their sudden appearance in the fossil record as an abominable mystery. Flowers are considered to be an assembly of protective, attractive, and reproductive male and female leaf-like organs. Their origin cannot be understood by a morphological comparison to gymnosperms, their closest relatives, which develop separate male or female cones. Despite these morphological differences, gymnosperms and angiosperms possess a similar genetic toolbox consisting of phylogenetically related MADS domain proteins. Using ancestral MADS domain protein reconstruction, we trace the evolution of organ identity quartets along the stem lineage of crown angiosperms. We provide evidence that current floral quartets specifying male organ identity, which consist of four types of subunits, evolved from ancestral complexes of two types of subunits through gene duplication and integration of SEPALLATA proteins just before the origin of flowering plants. Our results suggest that protein interaction changes underlying this compositional shift were the result of a gradual and reversible evolutionary trajectory. Modeling shows that such compositional changes may have facilitated the evolution of the perfect, bisexual flower.
Near-surface geophysical techniques are extensively used in a variety of engineering, environmental, geologic, and hydrologic applications. While many of these applications ask for detailed, quantitative models of selected material properties, geophysical data are increasingly used to estimate such target properties. Typically, this estimation procedure relies on a two-step workflow including (1) the inversion of geophysical data and (2) the petrophysical translation of the inverted parameter models into the target properties. Standard deterministic implementations of such a quantitative interpretation result in a single best-estimate model, often without considering and propagating the uncertainties related to the two steps. We address this problem by using a rather novel, particle-swarm-based global joint strategy for data inversion and by implementing Monte Carlo procedures for petrophysical property estimation. We apply our proposed workflow to crosshole ground-penetrating radar, P-, and S-wave data sets collected at a well-constrained test site for a detailed geotechnical characterization of unconsolidated sands. For joint traveltime inversion, the chosen global approach results in ensembles of acceptable velocity models, which are analyzed to appraise inversion-related uncertainties. Subsequently, the entire ensembles of inverted velocity models are considered to estimate selected petrophysical properties including porosity, bulk density, and elastic moduli via well-established petrophysical relations implemented in a Monte Carlo framework. Our results illustrate the potential benefit of such an advanced interpretation strategy; i.e., the proposed workflow allows to study how uncertainties propagate into the finally estimated property models, while concurrently we are able to study the impact of uncertainties in the used petrophysical relations (e.g., the influence of uncertain, user-specified parameters). We conclude that such statistical approaches for the quantitative interpretation of geophysical data can be easily extended and adapted to other applications and geophysical methods and might be an important step toward increasing the popularity and acceptance of geophysical tools in engineering practice.
Global earthquake locations are often associated with very large systematic travel-time residuals even for clear arrivals, especially for regional and near-regional stations in subduction zones because of their strongly heterogeneous velocity structure. Travel-time corrections can drastically reduce travel-time residuals at regional stations and, in consequence, improve the relative location accuracy. We have extended the shrinking-box source-specific station terms technique to regional and teleseismic distances and adopted the algorithm for probabilistic, nonlinear, global-search location. We evaluated the potential of the method to compute precise relative hypocentre locations on a global scale. The method has been applied to two specific test regions using existing P- and pP-phase picks. The first data set consists of 3103 events along the Chilean margin and the second one comprises 1680 earthquakes in the Tonga-Fiji subduction zone. Pick data were obtained from the GEOFON earthquake bulletin, produced using data from all available, global station networks. A set of timing corrections varying as a function of source position was calculated for each seismic station. In this way, we could correct the systematic errors introduced into the locations by the inaccuracies in the assumed velocity structure without explicitly solving for a velocity model. Residual statistics show that the median absolute deviation of the travel-time residuals is reduced by 40-60 per cent at regional distances, where the velocity anomalies are strong. Moreover, the spread of the travel-time residuals decreased by similar to 20 per cent at teleseismic distances (>28 degrees). Furthermore, strong variations in initial residuals as a function of recording distance are smoothed out in the final residuals. The relocated catalogues exhibit less scattered locations in depth and sharper images of the seismicity associated with the subducting slabs. Comparison with a high-resolution local catalogue reveals that our relocation process significantly improves the hypocentre locations compared to standard locations.
In this paper, an underground experiment at the Aspo Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) is described. Main goal is optimizing geothermal heat exchange in crystalline rock mass at depth by multistage hydraulic fracturing with minimal impact on the environment, that is, seismic events. For this, three arrays with acoustic emission, microseismicity and electromagnetic sensors are installed mapping hydraulic fracture initiation and growth. Fractures are driven by three different water injection schemes (continuous, progressive and pulse pressurization). After a brief review of hydraulic fracture operations in crystalline rock mass at mine scale, the site geology and the stress conditions at Aspo HRL are described. Then, the continuous, single-flow rate and alternative, multiple-flow rate fracture breakdown tests in a horizontal borehole at depth level 410 m are described together with the monitoring networks and sensitivity. Monitoring results include the primary catalogue of acoustic emission hypocentres obtained from four hydraulic fractures with the in situ trigger and localizing network. The continuous versus alternative water injection schemes are discussed in terms of the fracture breakdown pressure, the fracture pattern from impression packer result and the monitoring at the arrays. An example of multistage hydraulic fracturing with several phases of opening and closing of fracture walls is evaluated using data from acoustic emissions, seismic broad-band recordings and electromagnetic signal response. Based on our limited amount of in situ tests (six) and evaluation of three tests in Avro granodiorite, in the multiple-flow rate test with progressively increasing target pressure, the acoustic emission activity starts at a later stage in the fracturing process compared to the conventional fracturing case with continuous water injection. In tendency, also the total number and magnitude of acoustic events are found to be smaller in the progressive treatment with frequent phases of depressurization.
Research in cognitive neuroscience has shown that brain structures serving perceptual, emotional, and motor processes are also recruited during the understanding of language when it refers to emotion, perception, and action. However, the exact linguistic and extralinguistic conditions under which such language-induced activity in modality-specific cortex is triggered are not yet well understood. The purpose of this study is to introduce a simple experimental technique that allows for the online measure of language-induced activity in motor structures of the brain. This technique consists in the use of a grip force sensor that captures subtle grip force variations while participants listen to words and sentences. Since grip force reflects activity in motor brain structures, the continuous monitoring of force fluctuations provides a fine-grained estimation of motor activity across time. In other terms, this method allows for both localization of the source of language-induced activity to motor brain structures and high temporal resolution of the recorded data. To facilitate comparison of the data to be collected with this tool, we present two experiments that describe in detail the technical setup, the nature of the recorded data, and the analyses (including justification about the data filtering and artifact rejection) that we applied. We also discuss how the tool could be used in other domains of behavioral research.
Objective: We analyse temporal trends and regional variation among the most recent available anthropometric data from German conscription in the years 2008-2010 and their historical contextualization since 1956. Design/setting/subjects: The overall sample included German conscripts (N 13 857 313) from 1956 to 2010. Results: German conscripts changed from growing in height to growing in breadth. Over the analysed 54 years, average height of 19-year-old conscripts increased by 6.5 cm from 173.5 cm in 1956 (birth year 1937) to 180.0 cm in 2010 (birth year 1991). This increase plateaued since the 1990s (1970s birth years). The increase in average weight, however, did not lessen during the last two decades but increased in two steps: at the end of the 1980s and after 1999. The weight and BMI distributions became increasingly right-skewed, the prevalence of overweight and obesity increased from 11.6 % and 2.1 % in 1984 to 19.9 % and 8.5 % in 2010, respectively. The north-south gradient in height (north = taller) persisted during our observations. Height and weight of conscripts from East Germany matched the German average between the early 1990s and 2009. Between the 1980s and the early 1990s, the average chest circumference increased, the average difference between chest circumference when inhaling and exhaling decreased, as did leg length relative to trunk length. Conclusions: Measuring anthropometric data for military conscripts yielded year-by-year monitoring of the health status of young men at a proscribed age. Such findings contribute to a more precise identification of groups at risk and thus help with further studies and to target interventions.
Winter cereals require prolonged cold to transition from vegetative to reproductive development. This process, referred to as vernalization, has been extensively studied in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). In Arabidopsis, a key flowering repressor called FLOWERING LOCUS C (FLC) quantitatively controls the vernalization requirement. By contrast, in cereals, the vernalization response is mainly regulated by the VERNALIZATION genes, VRN1 and VRN2. Here, we characterize ODDSOC2, a recently identified FLC ortholog in monocots, knowing that it belongs to the FLC lineage. By studying its expression in a diverse set of Brachypodium accessions, we find that it is a good predictor of the vernalization requirement. Analyses of transgenics demonstrated that BdODDSOC2 functions as a vernalization-regulated flowering repressor. In most Brachypodium accessions BdODDSOC2 is down-regulated by cold, and in one of the winter accessions in which this down-regulation was evident, BdODDSOC2 responded to cold before BdVRN1. When stably down-regulated, the mechanism is associated with spreading H3K27me3 modifications at the BdODDSOC2 chromatin. Finally, homoeolog-specific gene expression analyses identify TaAGL33 and its splice variant TaAGL22 as the FLC orthologs in wheat (Triticum aestivum) behaving most similar to Brachypodium ODDSOC2. Overall, our study suggests that ODDSOC2 is not only phylogenetically related to FLC in eudicots but also functions as a flowering repressor in the vernalization pathway of Brachypodium and likely other temperate grasses. These insights could prove useful in breeding efforts to refine the vernalization requirement of temperate cereals and adapt varieties to changing climates.
Understanding evolution and ecology of endemic plants is of great importance for conservation of those rare and endangered species. Pairwise comparisons of plant functional traits could be an adequate method to get insights in evolutionary and ecological processes. We examined whether morphological traits representing competitive ability and habitat specificity differ between endemics and common plants. Therefore, we performed pairwise comparison analyses of 9 plant functional traits in 36 congeneric pairs of endemics and their common congeners on the East Mediterranean island of Cyprus, i.e., the first such study conducted on a Mediterranean island. We found that endemic species prefer higher elevations and more extreme habitats. Endemics were smaller and they had smaller flowers than their common congeners. Common species had higher chromosome numbers than endemic ones. Endemic and common species showed no significant differences in canopy height, inflorescence height, leaf length and width, and flowering period. Our study showed that the situation on a large oceanic island does not differ from results in mainland research areas.
BACKGROUND: We evaluated the potential of cholecalciferol as an enhancer of the first-generation anticoagulant coumatetralyl in the Westphalia anticoagulant-resistant strain of the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus Berkenhout), characterised by the Tyr139Cys polymorphism on the VKOR enzyme. Because today only the most potent, but also most persistent anticoagulant rodenticides of the second generation remain available to control this strain, new rodenticide solutions are required. RESULTS: Feeding trials in the laboratory confirmed a significant level of efficacy, which was corroborated by field trials in the Munsterland resistance area. After frequency and level of resistance were assessed by blood clotting response tests, field trials were conducted with bait containing coumatetralyl at 375 mg kg(-1) and cholecalciferol at 50 mg kg(-1) or 100 mg kg(-1). Control success was 94% when a large rat infestation comprising 42% resistant animals was treated. Another field trial applying the combination to a rat population that had survived a preceding treatment with bromadiolone resulted in a 99.5% control success according to the first census day, but with some increase in rat activity during subsequent census days. CONCLUSION: The combination of coumatetralyl and cholecalciferol is a promising alternative approach to the most potent second-generation anticoagulants in resistance management, particularly in respect of environmental risks, such as secondary poisoning. (C) 2016 Society of Chemical Industry
The 2015 magnitude 7.8 Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks weakened mountain slopes in Nepal. Co- and postseismic landsliding and the formation of landslide-dammed lakes along steeply dissected valleys were widespread, among them a landslide that dammed the Kali Gandaki River. Overtopping of the landslide dam resulted in a flash flood downstream, though casualties were prevented because of timely evacuation of low-lying areas. We hindcast the flood using the BREACH physically based dam-break model for upstream hydrograph generation, and compared the resulting maximum flow rate with those resulting from various empirical formulas and a simplified hydrograph based on published observations. Subsequent modeling of downstream flood propagation was compromised by a coarse-resolution digital elevation model with several artifacts. Thus, we used a digital-elevation-model preprocessing technique that combined carving and smoothing to derive topographic data. We then applied the 1-dimensional HEC-RAS model for downstream flood routing, and compared it to the 2-dimensional Delft-FLOW model. Simulations were validated using rectified frames of a video recorded by a resident during the flood in the village of Beni, allowing estimation of maximum flow depth and speed. Results show that hydrological smoothing is necessary when using coarse topographic data (such as SRTM or ASTER), as using raw topography underestimates flow depth and speed and overestimates flood wave arrival lag time. Results also show that the 2-dimensional model produces more accurate results than the 1-dimensional model but the 1-dimensional model generates a more conservative result and can be run in a much shorter time. Therefore, a 2-dimensional model is recommended for hazard assessment and planning, whereas a 1-dimensional model would facilitate real-time warning declaration.
A recent full species-level phylogeny of tits, titmice and chickadees (Paridae) has placed the Chinese endemic black-bibbed tit (Poecile hypermelaenus) as the sister to the Palearctic willow tit (P. montanus). Because this sister-group relationship is in striking disagreement with the traditional affiliation of P. hypermelaenus close to the marsh tit (P. palustris) we tested this phylogenetic hypothesis in a multi locus analysis with an extended taxon sampling including sixteen subspecies of willow tits and marsh tits. As a taxonomic reference we included type specimens in our analysis. The molecular genetic study was complemented with an analysis of biometric data obtained from museum specimens. Our phylogenetic reconstructions, including a comparison of all GenBank data available for our target species, clearly show that the genetic lineage previously identified as P. hypermelaenus actually refers to P. weigoldicus because sequences were identical to that of a syntype of this taxon. The close relationship of P. weigoldicus and P. montanus - despite large genetic distances between the two taxa - is in accordance with current taxonomy and systematics. In disagreement with the previous phylogenetic hypothesis but in accordance with most taxonomic authorities, all our P. hypermelaenus specimens fell in the sister Glade of all western and eastern Palearctic P. palustris. Though shared haplotypes among the Chinese populations of the two latter species might indicate mitochondrial introgression in this part of the breeding range, further research is needed here due to the limitations of our own sampling.