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During the last 5 Ma the Earth's ocean-atmosphere system passed through several major transitions, many of which are discussed as possible triggers for human evolution. A classic in this context is the possible influence of the closure of the Panama Strait, the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation, a stepwise increase in aridity in Africa, and the first appearance of the genus Homo about 2.5 - 2.7 Ma ago. Apart from the fact that the correlation between these events does not necessarily imply causality, many attempts to establish a relationship between climate and evolution fail due to the challenge of precisely localizing an a priori unknown number of changes potentially underlying complex climate records. The kernel-based Bayesian inference approach applied here allows inferring the location, generic shape, and temporal scale of multiple transitions in established records of Plio-Pleistocene African climate. By defining a transparent probabilistic analysis strategy, we are able to identify conjoint changes occurring across the investigated terrigenous dust records from Ocean Drilling Programme (ODP) sites in the Atlantic Ocean (ODP 659), Arabian (ODP 721/722) and Mediterranean Sea (ODP 967). The study indicates a two-step transition in the African climate proxy records at (2.35-2.10) Ma and (1.70 - 1.50) Ma, that may be associated with the reorganization of the Hadley-Walker Circulation. .
Ocean Drilling Program Site 1085 provides a continuous marine sediment record off southern South West Africa for at least the last three and half million years. The n-alkane partial derivative(13) C record from this site records changes in past vegetation and provides an indication of the moisture availability of SW Africa during this time period. Very little variation, and no apparent trend, is observed in the n-alkane delta C-13 record, suggesting stable long-term conditions despite significant changes in East African tectonics and global climate. Slightly higher n-alkane delta C-13 values occur between 3.5 and 2.7 Ma suggesting slightly drier conditions than today. Between 2.5 and 2.7 Ma there is a shift to more negative n-alkane delta C-13 values suggesting slightly wetter conditions during a similar to 0.2 Ma episode that coincides with the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (iNHG). From 2.5 to 0.4 Ma the n-alkane delta C-13 values are very consistent, varying by less than +/- 0.5 parts per thousand and suggesting little or no long-term change in the moisture availability of South West Africa over the last 2.5 million years. This is in contrast to the long-term drying trend observed further north offshore from the Namib Desert and in East Africa. A comparison of the climate history of these regions suggests that Southern Africa may have been an area of long-term stability over the last 3.5 Myrs.