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This study explores the suitability of a single hillslope as a parsimonious representation of a catchment in a physically based model. We test this hypothesis by picturing two distinctly different catchments in perceptual models and translating these pictures into parametric setups of 2-D physically based hillslope models. The model parametrizations are based on a comprehensive field data set, expert knowledge and process-based reasoning. Evaluation against streamflow data highlights that both models predicted the annual pattern of streamflow generation as well as the hydrographs acceptably. However, a look beyond performance measures revealed deficiencies in streamflow simulations during the summer season and during individual rainfall-runoff events as well as a mismatch between observed and simulated soil water dynamics. Some of these shortcomings can be related to our perception of the systems and to the chosen hydrological model, while others point to limitations of the representative hillslope concept itself. Nevertheless, our results confirm that representative hillslope models are a suitable tool to assess the importance of different data sources as well as to challenge our perception of the dominant hydrological processes we want to represent therein. Consequently, these models are a promising step forward in the search for the optimal representation of catchments in physically based models.
Background
The members of the genus Muntiacus are of particular interest to evolutionary biologists due to their extreme chromosomal rearrangements and the ongoing discussions about the number of living species. Red muntjacs have the largest distribution of all muntjacs and were formerly considered as one species. Karyotype differences led to the provisional split between the Southern Red Muntjac (Muntiacus muntjak) and the Northern Red Muntjac (M. vaginalis), but uncertainties remain as, so far, no phylogenetic study has been conducted. Here, we analysed whole mitochondrial genomes of 59 archival and 16 contemporaneous samples to resolve uncertainties about their taxonomy and used red muntjacs as model for understanding the evolutionary history of other species in Southeast Asia.
Results
We found three distinct matrilineal groups of red muntjacs: Sri Lankan red muntjacs (including the Western Ghats) diverged first from other muntjacs about 1.5 Mya; later northern red muntjacs (including North India and Indochina) and southern red muntjacs (Sundaland) split around 1.12 Mya. The diversification of red muntjacs into these three main lineages was likely promoted by two Pleistocene barriers: one through the Indian subcontinent and one separating the Indochinese and Sundaic red muntjacs. Interestingly, we found a high level of gene flow within the populations of northern and southern red muntjacs, indicating gene flow between populations in Indochina and dispersal of red muntjacs over the exposed Sunda Shelf during the Last Glacial Maximum.
Conclusions
Our results provide new insights into the evolution of species in South and Southeast Asia as we found clear genetic differentiation in a widespread and generalist species, corresponding to two known biogeographical barriers: The Isthmus of Kra and the central Indian dry zone. In addition, our molecular data support either the delineation of three monotypic species or three subspecies, but more importantly these data highlight the conservation importance of the Sri Lankan/South Indian red muntjac.
Background
Cells are able to communicate and coordinate their function within tissues via secreted factors. Aberrant secretion by cancer cells can modulate this intercellular communication, in particular in highly organised tissues such as the liver. Hepatocytes, the major cell type of the liver, secrete Dickkopf (Dkk), which inhibits Wnt/ β-catenin signalling in an autocrine and paracrine manner. Consequently, Dkk modulates the expression of Wnt/ β-catenin target genes. We present a mathematical model that describes the autocrine and paracrine regulation of hepatic gene expression by Dkk under wild-type conditions as well as in the presence of mutant cells.
Results
Our spatial model describes the competition of Dkk and Wnt at receptor level, intra-cellular Wnt/ β-catenin signalling, and the regulation of target gene expression for 21 individual hepatocytes. Autocrine and paracrine regulation is mediated through a feedback mechanism via Dkk and Dkk diffusion along the porto-central axis. Along this axis an APC concentration gradient is modelled as experimentally detected in liver. Simulations of mutant cells demonstrate that already a single mutant cell increases overall Dkk concentration. The influence of the mutant cell on gene expression of surrounding wild-type hepatocytes is limited in magnitude and restricted to hepatocytes in close proximity. To explore the underlying molecular mechanisms, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the model parameters such as diffusion coefficient, mutation strength and feedback strength.
Conclusions
Our simulations show that Dkk concentration is elevated in the presence of a mutant cell. However, the impact of these elevated Dkk levels on wild-type hepatocytes is confined in space and magnitude. The combination of inter- and intracellular processes, such as Dkk feedback, diffusion and Wnt/ β-catenin signal transduction, allow wild-type hepatocytes to largely maintain their gene expression.
The transition from hunting and gathering to farming involved profound cultural and technological changes. In Western and Central Europe, these changes occurred rapidly and synchronously after the arrival of early farmers of Anatolian origin [1-3], who largely replaced the local Mesolithic hunter-gatherers [1, 4-6]. Further east, in the Baltic region, the transition was gradual, with little or no genetic input from incoming farmers [7]. Here we use ancient DNA to investigate the relationship between hunter-gatherers and farmers in the Lower Danube basin, a geographically intermediate area that is characterized by a rapid Neolithic transition but also by the presence of archaeological evidence that points to cultural exchange, and thus possible admixture, between hunter-gatherers and farmers. We recovered four human paleogenomes (1.13 to 4.13 coverage) from Romania spanning a time transect between 8.8 thousand years ago (kya) and 5.4 kya and supplemented them with two Mesolithic genomes (1.73- and 5.33) from Spain to provide further context on the genetic background of Mesolithic Europe. Our results show major Western hunter-gatherer (WHG) ancestry in a Romanian Eneolithic sample with a minor, but sizeable, contribution from Anatolian farmers, suggesting multiple admixture events between hunter-gatherers and farmers. Dietary stableisotope analysis of this sample suggests a mixed terrestrial/ aquatic diet. Our results provide support for complex interactions among hunter-gatherers and farmers in the Danube basin, demonstrating that in some regions, demic and cultural diffusion were not mutually exclusive, but merely the ends of a continuum for the process of Neolithization.
Palaeogenomes of Eurasian straight-tusked elephants challenge the current view of elephant evolution
(2017)
The straight-tusked elephants Palaeoloxodon spp. were widespread across Eurasia during the Pleistocene. Phylogenetic reconstructions using morphological traits have grouped them with Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), and many paleontologists place Palaeoloxodon within Elephas. Here, we report the recovery of full mitochondrial genomes from four and partial nuclear genomes from two P. antiquus fossils. These fossils were collected at two sites in Germany, Neumark-Nord and Weimar-Ehringsdorf, and likely date to interglacial periods similar to 120 and similar to 244 thousand years ago, respectively. Unexpectedly, nuclear and mitochondrial DNA analyses suggest that P. antiquus was a close relative of extant African forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis). Species previously referred to Palaeoloxodon are thus most parsimoniously explained as having diverged from the lineage of Loxodonta, indicating that Loxodonta has not been constrained to Africa. Our results demonstrate that the current picture of elephant evolution is in need of substantial revision.
The oceans absorb about a quarter of the annually produced anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), resulting in a decrease in surface water pH, a process termed ocean acidification (OA). Surprisingly little is known about how OA affects the physiology of heterotrophic bacteria or the coupling of heterotrophic bacteria to phytoplankton when nutrients are limited. Previous experiments were, for the most part, undertaken during productive phases or following nutrient additions designed to stimulate algal blooms. Therefore, we performed an in situ large-volume mesocosm (similar to 55 m(3)) experiment in the Baltic Sea by simulating different fugacities of CO2 (fCO(2)) extending from present to future conditions. The study was conducted in July-August after the nominal spring bloom, in order to maintain low-nutrient conditions throughout the experiment. This resulted in phytoplankton communities dominated by small-sized functional groups (picophytoplankton). There was no consistent fCO(2)-induced effect on bacterial protein production (BPP), cell-specific BPP (csBPP) or biovolumes (BVs) of either free-living (FL) or particle-associated (PA) heterotrophic bacteria, when considered as individual components (univariate analyses). Permutational Multivariate Analysis of Variance (PERMANOVA) revealed a significant effect of the fCO(2) treatment on entire assemblages of dissolved and particulate nutrients, metabolic parameters and the bacteria-phytoplankton community. However, distance-based linear modelling only identified fCO(2) as a factor explaining the variability observed amongst the microbial community composition, but not for explaining variability within the metabolic parameters. This suggests that fCO(2) impacts on microbial metabolic parameters occurred indirectly through varying physicochemical parameters and microbial species composition. Cluster analyses examining the co-occurrence of different functional groups of bacteria and phytoplankton further revealed a separation of the four fCO(2)-treated mesocosms from both control mesocosms, indicating that complex trophic interactions might be altered in a future acidified ocean. Possible consequences for nutrient cycling and carbon export are still largely unknown, in particular in a nutrient-limited ocean.
Residents of the Kathmandu Valley experience severe particulate and gaseous air pollution throughout most of the year, even during much of the rainy season. The knowledge base for understanding the air pollution in the Kathmandu Valley was previously very limited, but is improving rapidly due to several field measurement studies conducted in the last few years. Thus far, most analyses of observations in the Kathmandu Valley have been limited to short periods of time at single locations. This study extends on the past studies by examining the spatial and temporal characteristics of two important gaseous air pollutant (CO and O3) based on simultaneous observations over a longer period at five locations within the valley and on its rim, including a supersite (at Bode in the valley center, 1345m above sea level) and four satellite sites (at Paknajol, 1380masl in the Kathmandu city center, at Bhimdhunga (1522masl), a mountain pass on the valley's western rim, at Nagarkot (1901masl), another mountain pass on the eastern rim, and Naikhandi, near the valley's only river outlet). CO and O3 mixing ratios were monitored from January to July 2013, along with other gases and aerosol particles by instruments deployed at the Bode supersite during the international air pollution measurement campaign SusKat-ABC (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley – endorsed by the Atmospheric Brown Clouds program of UNEP). The O3 monitoring at Bode, Paknajol and Nagarkot as well as the CO monitoring at Bode were extended beyond July 2013 to investigate their variability over a complete annual cycle. Higher CO mixing ratios were found at Bode than at the outskirt sites (Bhimdhunga, Naikhandi and Nagarkot), and all sites except Nagarkot showed distinct diurnal cycles of CO mixing ratio with morning peaks and daytime lows. Seasonally, CO was higher during the pre-monsoon and winter seasons, especially due to the emissions from brick kiln industries, which only operate during this period, as well as increased domestic heating during winter, and regional forest fires and agro-residue burning. It was lower during the monsoon due to rainfall, which reduces open burning activities within the valley and in the surrounding regions, and thus reduces the sources of CO. The meteorology of the valley also played a key role in determining the CO mixing ratios. Furthermore, there was evidence of some influence of pollution from the greater region around the valley. A top-down estimate of the CO emission flux was made by using the CO mixing ratio and mixing layer height (MLH) measured at Bode. The estimated annual CO flux at Bode was 4.92μgm−2s−1, which is 2–14 times higher than that in widely used emission inventory databases (EDGAR HTAP, REAS and INTEX-B). This difference in CO flux between Bode and other emission databases likely arises from large uncertainties in both the top-down and bottom-up approaches to estimating the emission flux. The O3 mixing ratio was found to be highest during the pre-monsoon season at all sites, while the timing of the seasonal minimum varied across the sites. The daily maximum 8 hour average O3 exceeded the WHO recommended guideline of 50ppb on more days at the hilltop station of Nagarkot (159/357 days) than at the urban valley bottom sites of Paknajol (132/354 days) and Bode (102/353 days), presumably due to the influence of free-tropospheric air at the high-altitude site, as well as to titration of O3 by fresh NOx emissions near the urban sites. More than 78% of the exceedance days were during the pre-monsoon period at all sites. This was due to both favorable meteorological conditions as well as contributions of precursors from regional sources such as forest fires and agro-residue burning. The high O3 mixing ratio observed during the pre-monsoon period is of a high concern for human health and ecosystems, including agroecosystems in the Kathmandu Valley and surrounding regions.
Plant functional traits reflect individual and community ecological strategies. They allow the detection of directional changes in community dynamics and ecosystemic processes, being an additional tool to assess biodiversity than species richness. Analysis of functional patterns in plant communities provides mechanistic insight into biodiversity alterations due to anthropogenic activity. Although studies have considered of either anthropogenic management or nutrient availability on functional traits in temperate grasslands, studies combining effects of both drivers are scarce. Here, we assessed the impacts of management intensity (fertilization, mowing, grazing), nutrient stoichiometry (C, N, P, K), and vegetation composition on community-weighted means (CWMs) and functional diversity (Rao's Q) from seven plant traits in 150 grasslands in three regions in Germany, using data of 6 years. Land use and nutrient stoichiometry accounted for larger proportions of model variance of CWM and Rao's Q than species richness and productivity. Grazing affected all analyzed trait groups; fertilization and mowing only impacted generative traits. Grazing was clearly associated with nutrient retention strategies, that is, investing in durable structures and production of fewer, less variable seed. Phenological variability was increased. Fertilization and mowing decreased seed number/mass variability, indicating competition-related effects. Impacts of nutrient stoichiometry on trait syndromes varied. Nutrient limitation (large N:P, C:N ratios) promoted species with conservative strategies, that is, investment in durable plant structures rather than fast growth, fewer seed, and delayed flowering onset. In contrast to seed mass, leaf-economics variability was reduced under P shortage. Species diversity was positively associated with the variability of generative traits. Synthesis. Here, land use, nutrient availability, species richness, and plant functional strategies have been shown to interact complexly, driving community composition, and vegetation responses to management intensity. We suggest that deeper understanding of underlying mechanisms shaping community assembly and biodiversity will require analyzing all these parameters.
Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming
(2017)
Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300% over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.
Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 %) and companies (45 %) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 %) and companies (3 %) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10% in 2002 to 34% in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.
Water deficit (drought stress) massively restricts plant growth and the yield of crops; reducing the deleterious effects of drought is therefore of high agricultural relevance. Drought triggers diverse cellular processes including the inhibition of photosynthesis, the accumulation of cell‐damaging reactive oxygen species and gene expression reprogramming, besides others. Transcription factors (TF) are central regulators of transcriptional reprogramming and expression of many TF genes is affected by drought, including members of the NAC family. Here, we identify the NAC factor JUNGBRUNNEN1 (JUB1) as a regulator of drought tolerance in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum). Expression of tomato JUB1 (SlJUB1) is enhanced by various abiotic stresses, including drought. Inhibiting SlJUB1 by virus‐induced gene silencing drastically lowers drought tolerance concomitant with an increase in ion leakage, an elevation of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) levels and a decrease in the expression of various drought‐responsive genes. In contrast, overexpression of AtJUB1 from Arabidopsis thaliana increases drought tolerance in tomato, alongside with a higher relative leaf water content during drought and reduced H2O2 levels. AtJUB1 was previously shown to stimulate expression of DREB2A, a TF involved in drought responses, and of the DELLA genes GAI and RGL1. We show here that SlJUB1 similarly controls the expression of the tomato orthologs SlDREB1, SlDREB2 and SlDELLA. Furthermore, AtJUB1 directly binds to the promoters of SlDREB1, SlDREB2 and SlDELLA in tomato. Our study highlights JUB1 as a transcriptional regulator of drought tolerance and suggests considerable conservation of the abiotic stress‐related gene regulatory networks controlled by this NAC factor between Arabidopsis and tomato.
The temporal dynamics of climate processes are spread across different timescales and, as such, the study of these processes at only one selected timescale might not reveal the complete mechanisms and interactions within and between the (sub-) processes. To capture the non-linear interactions between climatic events, the method of event synchronization has found increasing attention recently. The main drawback with the present estimation of event synchronization is its restriction to analysing the time series at one reference timescale only. The study of event synchronization at multiple scales would be of great interest to comprehend the dynamics of the investigated climate processes. In this paper, the wavelet-based multi-scale event synchronization (MSES) method is proposed by combining the wavelet transform and event synchronization. Wavelets are used extensively to comprehend multi-scale processes and the dynamics of processes across various timescales. The proposed method allows the study of spatio-temporal patterns across different timescales. The method is tested on synthetic and real-world time series in order to check its replicability and applicability. The results indicate that MSES is able to capture relationships that exist between processes at different timescales.
Strong events of long-range transported biomass burning aerosol were detected during July 2013 at three EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) stations, namely Granada (Spain), Leipzig (Germany) and Warsaw (Poland). Satellite observations from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) instruments, as well as modeling tools such as HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) and NAAPS (Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System), have been used to estimate the sources and transport paths of those North American forest fire smoke particles. A multiwavelength Raman lidar technique was applied to obtain vertically resolved particle optical properties, and further inversion of those properties with a regularization algorithm allowed for retrieving microphysical information on the studied particles. The results highlight the presence of smoke layers of 1-2 km thickness, located at about 5 km a.s.l. altitude over Granada and Leipzig and around 2.5 km a.s.l. at Warsaw. These layers were intense, as they accounted for more than 30% of the total AOD (aerosol optical depth) in all cases, and presented optical and microphysical features typical for different aging degrees: color ratio of lidar ratios (LR532/LR355) around 2, alpha-related angstrom exponents of less than 1, effective radii of 0.3 mu m and large values of single scattering albedos (SSA), nearly spectrally independent. The intensive microphysical properties were compared with columnar retrievals form co-located AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) stations. The intensity of the layers was also characterized in terms of particle volume concentration, and then an experimental relationship between this magnitude and the particle extinction coefficient was established.
In spite of the fundamental role of the landscape water balance for the Earth's water and energy cycles, monitoring the water balance and its components beyond the point scale is notoriously difficult due to the multitude of flow and storage processes and their spatial heterogeneity. Here, we present the first field deployment of an iGrav superconducting gravimeter (SG) in a minimized enclosure for long-term integrative monitoring of water storage changes. Results of the field SG on a grassland site under wet-temperate climate conditions were compared to data provided by a nearby SG located in the controlled environment of an observatory building. The field system proves to provide gravity time series that are similarly precise as those of the observatory SG. At the same time, the field SG is more sensitive to hydrological variations than the observatory SG. We demonstrate that the gravity variations observed by the field setup are almost independent of the depth below the terrain surface where water storage changes occur (contrary to SGs in buildings), and thus the field SG system directly observes the total water storage change, i.e., the water balance, in its surroundings in an integrative way. We provide a framework to single out the water balance components actual evapotranspiration and lateral subsurface discharge from the gravity time series on annual to daily timescales. With about 99 and 85% of the gravity signal due to local water storage changes originating within a radius of 4000 and 200m around the instrument, respectively, this setup paves the road towards gravimetry as a continuous hydrological field-monitoring technique at the landscape scale.
Landscape and scale-dependent spatial niches of bats foraging above intensively used arable fields
(2017)
Introduction
Bats are threatened by agricultural intensification, and although bat ecology in agricultural landscapes is in the focus of current research, the effects of interacting spatiotemporal factors on species-specific bat activity above farmland remain understudied. Our aim was to identify spatiotemporal factors and their interactions relevant for the activity of bat species above conventionally managed arable fields.
Methods
We repeatedly monitored relative bat activity above open arable fields in Germany using acoustic monitoring. We used site-related biotic and abiotic factors and landscape characteristics across five spatial scales, their combinations, and interactions to identify those factors which best explain variation in bat activity.
Results
Numerous interactions between landscape characteristics and the insect abundance affected bat activity above fields. For instance, Pipistrellus pipistrellus became more active with increasing insect abundance, but only above fields with a low proportion of woody vegetation cover in the surroundings. Additionally, the level of bat activity in summer depended on landscape characteristics. For example, the activity of Pipistrellus nathusii was relatively low in summer above fields that were surrounded by vegetation patches with a high degree of edge complexity (e.g., hedgerow). However, the activity remained at a relatively high level and did not differ between seasons above fields that were surrounded by vegetation patches with a low degree of edge complexity (e.g., roundly shaped forest patch).
Conclusions
Our results revealed that landscape characteristics and their interactions with insect abundance affected bat activity above conventionally managed fields and highlighted the opportunistic foraging behavior of bats. To improve the conditions for bats in agricultural landscapes, we recommend re-establishing landscape heterogeneity to protect aquatic habitats and to increase arthropod availability.
In the last few years the method of cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) has gained popularity among hydrologists, physicists, and land-surface modelers. The sensor provides continuous soil moisture data, averaged over several hectares and tens of decimeters in depth. However, the signal still may contain unidentified features of hydrological processes, and many calibration datasets are often required in order to find reliable relations between neutron intensity and water dynamics. Recent insights into environmental neutrons accurately described the spatial sensitivity of the sensor and thus allowed one to quantify the contribution of individual sample locations to the CRNS signal. Consequently, data points of calibration and validation datasets are suggested to be averaged using a more physically based weighting approach. In this work, a revised sensitivity function is used to calculate weighted averages of point data. The function is different from the simple exponential convention by the extraordinary sensitivity to the first few meters around the probe, and by dependencies on air pressure, air humidity, soil moisture, and vegetation. The approach is extensively tested at six distinct monitoring sites: two sites with multiple calibration datasets and four sites with continuous time series datasets. In all cases, the revised averaging method improved the performance of the CRNS products. The revised approach further helped to reveal hidden hydrological processes which otherwise remained unexplained in the data or were lost in the process of overcalibration. The presented weighting approach increases the overall accuracy of CRNS products and will have an impact on all their applications in agriculture, hydrology, and modeling.
BACKGROUND: Reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤30% is the most powerful prognostic indicator for sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients after myocardial infarction (MI), but there are little data about long-term changes of LVEF after revascularization and the following implantation of a cardioverter defibrillator (ICD).
METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 277 patients with reduced LVEF at least 1month after MI and complete revascularization. Patients (median time post-MI 23.4months; 74.3% after PCI, 25.7% after CABG were assigned either to group 1 (LVEF<30%) or group 2 (LVEF 30-40%). Biplane echocardiography was redone after a mean follow-up of 441±220days.
RESULTS: LVEF increased significantly in both two groups (group 1: 26.2±4.8% to 32.4±8.5%; p<0.001; group 2: 38.2±2.5% to 44.4±9.6%; p<0.001). However, statistical analysis of first and second LVEF measurement by means of a LOWESS regression and with an appropriate correction of the regression towards the mean effect revealed only a moderate increase of the mean LVEF from 35 to 37% (p<0.001) with a large interindividual variation.
CONCLUSIONS: The impact of early revascularization on LVEF appears to be low in the majority of post-MI heart failure patients. Owing to the high variability, a single measurement may not be reliable enough to justify a decision on ICD indication.
Temperature is a key factor controlling plant growth and vitality in the temperate climates of the mid-latitudes like in vast parts of the European continent. Beyond the effect of average conditions, the timings and magnitudes of temperature extremes play a particularly crucial role, which needs to be better understood in the context of projected future rises in the frequency and/or intensity of such events. In this work, we employ event coincidence analysis (ECA) to quantify the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We perform this analysis for entire Europe based upon remote sensing data, differentiating between three periods corresponding to different stages of plant development during the growing season. In addition, we analyze the typical elevation and land cover type of the regions showing significantly large event coincidences rates to identify the most severely affected vegetation types. Our results reveal distinct spatio-temporal impact patterns in terms of extraordinarily large co-occurrence rates between several combinations of temperature and NDVI extremes. Croplands are among the most frequently affected land cover types, while elevation is found to have only a minor effect on the spatial distribution of corresponding extreme weather impacts. These findings provide important insights into the vulnerability of European terrestrial ecosystems to extreme temperature events and demonstrate how event-based statistics like ECA can provide a valuable perspective on environmental nexuses.
In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria.& para;& para;To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) and its three components (alpha, beta and r) as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation) for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC) are calculated.& para;& para;With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT) approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter.& para;& para;In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria is found for low- and mid-flow conditions. Moreover, the RT analyses emphasise the benefit of an individual analysis of the three components of KGE and of the FDC segments. Furthermore, the RT analyses highlight under which conditions these performance criteria provide insights into precise parameter identification. Our results show that separate performance criteria are required to identify dominant parameters on low- and mid-flow conditions, whilst the number of required performance criteria for high flows increases with increasing process complexity in the catchment. Overall, the analysis of the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria using RTs contribute to a more realistic handling of parameters and performance criteria in hydrological modelling.
The significance of biogenic silicon (BSi) pools as a key factor for the control of Si fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems has been recognized for decades. However, while most research has been focused on phytogenic Si pools, knowledge of other BSi pools is still limited. We hypothesized that different BSi pools influence short-term changes in the water-soluble Si fraction in soils to different extents. To test our hypothesis we took plant (Calamagrostis epigejos, Phragmites australis) and soil samples in an artificial catchment in a post-mining landscape in the state of Brandenburg, Germany. We quantified phytogenic (phytoliths), protistic (diatom frustules and testate amoeba shells) and zoogenic (sponge spicules) Si pools as well as Tironextractable and water-soluble Si fractions in soils at the beginning (t(0)) and after 10 years (t(10)) of ecosystem development. As expected the results of Tiron extraction showed that there are no consistent changes in the amorphous Si pool at Chicken Creek (Huhnerwasser) as early as after 10 years. In contrast to t(0) we found increased water-soluble Si and BSi pools at t(10); thus we concluded that BSi pools are the main driver of short-term changes in water-soluble Si. However, because total BSi represents only small proportions of water-soluble Si at t(0) (< 2 %) and t(10) (2.8-4.3 %) we further concluded that smaller (< 5 mu m) and/or fragile phytogenic Si structures have the biggest impact on short-term changes in water-soluble Si. In this context, extracted phytoliths (> 5 mu m) only amounted to about 16% of total Si con-tents of plant materials of C. epigejos and P. australis at t(10); thus about 84% of small-scale and/or fragile phytogenic Si is not quantified by the used phytolith extraction method. Analyses of small-scale and fragile phytogenic Si structures are urgently needed in future work as they seem to represent the biggest and most reactive Si pool in soils. Thus they are the most important drivers of Si cycling in terrestrial biogeosystems.