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The mildly peraluminous granite of Seiffen, in the eastern Erzgebirge of Germany, is exposed by drillcores and associated with an abandoned Sri mine. The granite is of Stefanian age, with overlapping Th-U-total Pb monazite (302 +/- 4 Ma) and K-Ar siderophyllite ages (301 +/- 5 Ma). It is among the youngest granites in the Erzgebirge, emplaced in an extensional setting. The medium-grained, equigranular granite classifies as high-F, low-P Li-mica granite of A-type affinity. It is spatially associated with a high-Si rhyolitic microgranite, documenting the shallow intrusion level of this igneous association. Zircon, monazite-(Ce), and xenotime-(Y) constitute important radioactive accessory minerals in the granite, hosting the major proportions (> 80-90%) of the bulk-rock budgets of the REE, Y, and Th. A significant percentage of U (40-50%) may reside within unidentified phases or precipitated along grain boundaries. The most uncommon accessory phase is late-magmatic ytterbian xenotime-(Y) containing up to 11.2 wt% Yb2O3, in addition to 7.3 wt% Er2O3 and 7.9 wt% Dy2O3. The Seiffen granite (epsilon(Nd(300)) = -4.6) is geochemically evolved and rich in Sri (23-63 ppm) and W (11-14 ppm). It contains elevated to high concentrations of incompatible lithophile elements such as F, Li, Ga, Rb, Y, Nb, Cs, REE, Th, and U, thus having much in common chemically with subvolcanic ongonites. The most prominent compositional feature is the strong enrichment (in ppm) in Be (51-55) and Ta (23-28). The granite exhibits flat chondrite-normalized REE patterns (La-N/Lu-N = 1.35-1.48) and a moderate negative Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* = 0.12-0.13). Indications for alteration-induced, postmagmatic disturbances of initial elemental abundances are weak and mainly relate to the ore-forming elements Sri and U.
We introduce a method for computing instantaneous-polarization attributes from multicomponent signals. This is an improvement on the standard covariance method (SCM) because it does not depend on the window size used to compute the standard covariance matrix. We overcome the window-size problem by deriving an approximate analytical formula for the cross-energy matrix in which we automatically and adaptively determine the time window. The proposed method uses polarization analysis as applied to multicomponent seismic by waveform separation and filtering.
[ 1] In this paper, we discuss the origin of superswell volcanism on the basis of representation and analysis of recent gravity and magnetic satellite data with wavelets in spherical geometry. We computed a refined gravity field in the south central Pacific based on the GRACE satellite GGM02S global gravity field and the KMS02 altimetric grid, and a magnetic anomaly field based on CHAMP data. The magnetic anomalies are marked by the magnetic lineation of the seafloor spreading and by a strong anomaly in the Tuamotu region, which we interpret as evidence for crustal thickening. We interpret our gravity field through a continuous wavelet analysis that allows to get a first idea of the internal density distribution. We also compute the continuous wavelet analysis of the bathymetric contribution to discriminate between deep and superficial sources. According to the gravity signature of the different chains as revealed by our analysis, various processes are at the origin of the volcanism in French Polynesia. As evidence, we show a large-scale anomaly over the Society Islands that we interpret as the gravity signature of a deeply anchored mantle plume. The gravity signature of the Cook-Austral chain indicates a complex origin which may involve deep processes. Finally, we discuss the particular location of the Marquesas chain as suggesting that the origin of the volcanism may interfere with secondary convection rolls or may be controlled by lithospheric weakness due to the regional stress field, or else related to the presence of the nearby Tuamotu plateau.
Quantification of discrete pressure-temperature domains in deformed chlorite + white mica-bearing metapelites was undertaken on mineral compositions derived by two-dimensional microprobe compositional mapping of selected areas of rock thin sections. In order to achieve compositional information at sufficient analytical precision, spatial resolution and sample coverage within a typical analysis time of 1 day, an optimization of measurement methods was necessary. The method presented here allows collection of raw counts for eight different element concentrations at an analytical precision of similar to 1-2 wt%. X-ray intensity multiplane maps (one map per measured chemical element) are translated into concentration multiplane maps, utilizing selected conventionally measured spot analyses combined with the Castaing approximation for each mineral. As this step requires identification of the different minerals present in the mapped area, a statistical clustering technique to identify different groups of composition was developed, guided by simple petrographic inspection of the thin section, to delineate the important minerals in the mapped area. Finally, the compositions of each pixel are translated into a mineral structural formula thus yielding a new kind of image with a high content of petrological information. The reliability of the mineral composition images was emphasized by carrying out precision tests on the analytical data. The possible use of chemical maps to infer the P-T-deformation history of metamorphic rocks is illustrated with two samples from the Spitzbergen and the Sambagawa blueschist facies belts. In both samples, a strong correlation between structures and chemistry is observed. Qualitative estimates of P-T conditions from the Si-content of mica and chlorite are in good agreement with their location in microstructures that formed at different times. Therefore, the combination of chemical maps with microstructural observations is a very powerful approach to understand both the evolution of complex metamorphic rocks and the control by deformation of mineral reactivity.
[1] We document late Pleistocene - Holocene aggradation and incision processes at the mountain front of the Qilian Shan, an active intracontinental fold-and-thrust belt accommodating a significant portion of the India-Asia convergence. The Shiyou River cuts through a NNE vergent fault propagation fold with Miocene red beds in the core and Pliocene - Quaternary growth strata on the northern forelimb. South of the anticline, Miocene strata dip 20 degrees SSW, suggesting a similar orientation for the basal decollement. After aggradation of an similar to 150-m-thick, late Pleistocene valley fill, the Shiyou River formed three terraces. The highest terrace, located 170 m above the river, constitutes the top of the fill. The other terraces are fill cut terraces: their treads are located 130 - 105 m and 37 m above the river, respectively. The 10 Be exposure dating of the terraces suggests that river incision accelerated from 0.8 +/- 0.2 mm yr(-1) to similar to 10 mm yr(-1) at 10 - 15 kyr. We interpret fast Holocene river incision as largely unrelated to tectonic forcing. The late Pleistocene incision rate of 0.8 +/- 0.2 mm yr(-1) places an upper limit of 2.2 +/- 0.5 mm yr(-1) on the horizontal shortening rate, assuming that incision is solely caused by rock uplift above a decollement dipping 20 degrees. However, the actual shortening rate may lie between similar to 2.2 mm yr(-1) and zero because deformation of the terraces and the valley fill cannot be unequivocally demonstrated. Our estimate is consistent with the bulk shortening rate of similar to 5 - 10 mm yr(-1) across several faults in NE Tibet derived from neotectonic and GPS data, although in case of the Shiyou River, Holocene deformation is barely discernible owing to intense climate-induced river incision.
Many semi-arid regions are characterised by water scarcity and vulnerability of natural resources, pronounced climatic variability and social stress. Integrated studies including climatotogy, hydrology, and socio-econornic studies are required both for analysing the dynamic natural conditions and to assess possible strategies to make semi-arid regions Less vulnerable to the present and changing climate. The model introduced here dynamically describes the retationships between climate forcing, water availability, agriculture and selected societal processes. The model has been tailored to simulate the rather complex situation in the semi-and north-eastern Brazil in a quantitative manner including the sensitivity to external forcing, such as climate change. The selected results presented show the general functioning of the integrated model, with a primary focus on climate change impacts. It becomes evident that due to Large differences in regional climate scenarios, it is still impossible to give quantitative values for the most probable development, e.g., to assign probabilities to the simulated results. However, it becomes clear that water is a very crucial factor, and that an efficient and ecologically sound water management is a key question for the further development of that semi-arid region. The simulation results show that, independent of the differences in climate change scenarios, rain-fed farming is more vulnerable to drought impacts compared to irrigated farming. However, the capacity of irrigation and other water infrastructure systems to enhance resilience in respect to climatic fluctuations is significantly constrained given a significant negative precipitation trend. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A 741-cm-long laminated sediment core, covering the last 10,800 years was collected from Lake Zigetang, central Tibetan Plateau (90.9 degrees E, 32.0 degrees N, 4560m a.s.l.), and analysed palynologically at 69 horizons. Biome reconstruction suggests a dominance of temperate steppe vegetation (mainly Artemisia and Poaceae) on the central Tibetan Plateau during the first half of the Holocene (10.8-4.4 cal. ka BP), while alpine steppes with desert elements (mainly Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae, and characteristic high-alpine herb families) tend to dominate the second half (4.4-0 cal. ka BP). The Artemisia/Cyperaceae ratio-a semi-quantitative measure for summer temperature-indicates a general cooling trend throughout the Holocene. Dense temperate steppe vegetation and maximum desert plant withdrawal, however, indicate that a suitable balance of wet and warm conditions for optimum vegetation growth likely occurred during the middle Holocene (7.3-4.4 cal. ka BP). Severe Early Holocene cold events have been reconstructed for 8.7-8.3 and similar to 7.4 cal. ka BP. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
Introduction to special issue: Dynamics of seismicity patterns and earthquake triggering - Preface
(2006)
Fractional crystallization of peraluminous F- and H(2)O-rich granite magmas progressively enriches the remaining melt with volatiles. We show that, at saturation, the melt may separate into two immiscible conjugate melt fractions, one of the fractions shows increasing peraluminosity and the other increasing peralkalinity. These melt fractions also fractionate the incompatible elements to significantly different degrees. Coexisting melt fractions have differing chemical and physical properties and, due to their high density and viscosity contrasts, they will tend to separate readily from each other. Once separated, each melt fraction evolves independently in response to changing T/P/X conditions and further immiscibility events may occur, each generating its own conjugate pair of melt fractions. The strongly peralkaline melt fractions in particular are very reactive and commonly react until equilibrium is attained. Consequently, the peralkaline melt fraction is commonly preserved only in the isolated melt and mineral inclusions. We demonstrate that the differences between melt fractions that can be seen most clearly in differing melt inclusion compositions are also visible in the composition of the resulting ore-forming and accessory minerals, and are visible on scales from a few micrometers to hundreds of meters.
Questions of identity and provenance of minerals that are parts of masterpieces in museums have become increasingly important in mineralogical and historical studies. Detailed investigations of valuable and unique objects require on-site, nondestructive and noninvasive methods because touching or removing them may cause irreparable damage. A mobile Raman-microprobe has been used to meet these demands for truly in situ mineralogical studies of the large collection of minerals and rocks of the Prussian kings in the Grotto Hall (Grottensaal) of the New Palace (Neues Palais), Park Sanssouci in Potsdam. Minerals on the walls of the Grotto Hall were analyzed to identify them and thereby to complete the data bank of the collection. Fluid and solid inclusions in the interior of a large quartz crystal have been studied to provide evidence of the provenance of the crystal. The fluid inclusions contain aqueous saline solutions, whereas the solid inclusions are needles of anhydrite with a length of about 1.5 mm. The quartz probably originated from an area in the eastern Alps, from the surroundings of Bad Gastein, Austria. This is the first on-site and in situ study of inclusions below the surface of a mineral with a mobile Raman-microprobe outside a laboratory.
Lago Laja is a late Quaternary volcanic‐dammed lake located near the drainage divide of the south central Andes. Field observations, lake reflection seismic profiles, bathymetry, and remote sensing data reveal an active fault system that runs parallel to the volcanic arc along the axis of the Main Cordillera, the Lago Laja fault system (LLFS). Normal faults of this extensional system cut late Pleistocene volcanics, <7.1 ka still water lacustrine sediments, 6.3 ka pyroclastic deposits, and Holocene alluvial fans. We divide the LLFS in three segments on the basis of fault geometry, width, and slip magnitude. The underwater faults of the central segment in the lake's deepest part have the maximum Holocene vertical slip rate of >2.7 mm/yr. Since 7.1 ka, the LLFS accounts for ∼0.7% of arc‐normal extension at an average minimum rate of 1.2 mm/yr and strain rate of ∼10−14 s−1. Seismites and surface ruptures evidence M>6 paleoearthquakes. The Main Cordillera at ∼37°S is a large‐scale pop‐up structure uplifted by thrusting along its foothills. In this light, we interpret extension in the axial and highest part of the Andes as incipient synorogenic gravitational collapse in response to uplift and crustal thickening. Thermal weakening due to elevated heat flow and postglacial lithospheric rebound and unbending have probably contributed to the arc‐limited collapse and Holocene acceleration of deformation rates. The lack of significant strike‐slip offsets along the LLFS as well as along both foothills‐thrust systems at 37°S contrasts with the intra‐arc dextral fault zone south of 38°S. Regional structural data indicates that north of 38°S, diffusely distributed strain reflects low partitioning of oblique subduction, while to the south deformation is localized in a discrete strike‐slip fault zone along the volcanic arc, reflecting a higher degree of partitioning. We relate this strain partitioning gradient to favorable fault orientations in the fore arc north of the Arauco Peninsula, a major seismotectonic boundary.
A new large set of reciprocal recombinant inbred lines (RILs) was created between the Arabidopsis accessions Col-0 and C24 for quantitative trait mapping approaches, consisting of 209 Col-0 x C24 and 214 C24 x Col-0 F-7 RI lines. Genotyping was performed using 110 evenly distributed framework single nucleotide polymorphism markers, yielding a genetic map of 425.70 cM, with an average interval of 3.87 cM. Segregation distortion (SD) was observed in several genomic regions during the construction of the genetic map. Linkage disequilibrium analysis revealed an association between a distorted region at the bottom of chromosome V and a non-distorted region on chromosome IV. A detailed analysis of the RILs for these two regions showed that an SD occurred when homozygous Col-0 alleles on chromosome IV coincided with homozygous C24 alleles at the bottom of chromosome V. Using nearly isogenic lines segregating for the distorted region we confirmed that this genotypic composition leads to reduced fertility and fitness.
Garnets in continentally derived high-pressure (HP) rocks of the Sesia Zone (Western Alps) exhibit three different chemical zonation patterns, depending on sample locality. Comparison of observed garnet zonation patterns with thermodynamically modelled patterns shows that the different patterns are caused by differences in the water content of the subducted protoliths during prograde metamorphism. Zonation patterns of garnets in water-saturated host rocks show typical prograde chemical zonations with steadily increasing pyrope content and increasing XMg, together with bell-shaped spessartine patterns. In contrast, garnets in water-undersaturated rocks have more complex zonation patterns with a characteristic decrease in pyrope and XMg between core and inner rim. In some cases, garnets show an abrupt compositional change in core-to-rim profiles, possibly due to water-undersaturation prior to HP metamorphism. Garnets from both water-saturated and water-undersaturated rocks show signs of intervening growth interruptions and core resorption. This growth interruption results from bulk-rock depletion caused by fractional garnet crystallization. The water content during burial influences significantly the physical properties of the subducted rocks. Due to enhanced garnet crystallization, water-undersaturated rocks, i.e. those lacking a free fluid phase, become denser than their water-saturated equivalents, facilitating the subduction of continental material. Although water-bearing phases such as phengite and epidote are stable up to eclogite-facies conditions in these rocks, dehydration reactions during subduction are lacking in water-undersaturated rocks up to the transition to the eclogite facies, due to the thermodynamic stability of such hydrous phases at high P-T conditions. Our calculations show that garnet zonation patterns strongly depend on the mineral parageneses stable during garnet growth and that certain co-genetic mineral assemblages cause distinct garnet zonation patterns. This observation enables interpretation of complex garnet growth zonation patterns in terms of garnet-forming reactions and water content during HP metamorphism, as well determination of detailed P-T paths.
We use the S receiver function method to study the lithosphere at the Dead Sea Transform (DST). A temporary network of 22 seismic broad-band stations was operated on both sides of the DST from 2000 to 2001 as part of the DESERT project. We also used data from six additional permanent broad-band seismic stations at the DST and in the surrounding area, that is, in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Cyprus. Clear S-to-P converted phases from the crust-mantle boundary (Moho) and a deeper discontinuity, which we interpret as lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) have been observed. The Moho depth (30-38 km) obtained from S receiver functions agrees well with the results from P receiver functions and other geophysical data. We observe thinning of the lithosphere on the eastern side of the DST from 80 km in the north of the Dead Sea to about 65 km at the Gulf of Aqaba. On the western side of the DST, the few data indicate a thin LAB of about 65 km. For comparison, we found a 90-km-thick lithosphere in eastern Turkey and a 160-km-thick lithosphere under the Arabian shield, respectively. These observations support previous suggestions, based on xenolith data, heat flow observations, regional uplift history and geodynamic modelling, that the lithosphere around DST has been significantly thinned in the Late Cenozoic, likely following rifting and spreading of the Red Sea.
[ 1] For the Puna Plateau and Eastern Cordillera of NW Argentina, the temporal and spatial pattern of deformation and surface uplift remain poorly constrained. Analysis of completely and partially reset apatite fission track samples collected from vertical profiles along an ESE trending transect extending from the plateau interior across the southern Eastern Cordillera at similar to 25 degrees S reveals important constraints on the deformation and exhumation history of this part of the Andes. The data constrain the Neogene Andean development of the Eastern Cordillera as well as rift-related exhumation for some of the sampled locations in the Late Jurassic/Early Cretaceous. An intervening Eocene-Oligocene exhumation episode in the southern Eastern Cordillera was probably related to crustal shortening. Subsequent reburial of the area by Andean foreland basin strata commenced between 30 and 25 Myr. Magnitude and duration of sedimentation, revealed by thermal modeling, differ between the sample locations, pointing to an eastward propagating basin system. In the southern Eastern Cordillera, Andean deformation commenced at 22.5 - 21 Myr, predating both the inferred formation of significant topography by 5 - 7.5 Myr and preservation of sediments in the adjacent Cenozoic basins by 6.5 - 8 Myr. Comparing the calculated structural depth of partially reset samples suggests that newly formed west dipping reverse faults along the former Salta Rift margin accommodated most of the Neogene tectonic movement. Late Cenozoic deformation at the southern Eastern Cordillera began earlier in the west and subsequently propagated eastward. The lateral growth of the orogen is coupled with a foreland basin system developing in front of the range and then becomes subsequently compartmentalized by later emergent topography.
Teleseismic tomography reveals no signature of the Dead Sea Transform in the upper mantle structure
(2006)
We present results of a tomographic inversion of teleseismic data recorded at 48 stations of a temporary network which was installed in the area of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) and operated for 1 yr in the framework of the multidisciplinary DESERT Project. The 3366 teleseismic P and PKP phases from 135 events were hand picked and corrected for surface topography and crustal thickness. The inversion shows pronounced low-velocity anomalies in the crust, beneath the DST, which are consistent with recent results from local-source tomography. These anomalies are likely related to the young sediments and fractured rocks in the fault zone. The deeper the retrieved anomalies are quite weak. Most prominent is the high-velocity strip-like anomaly striking SE-NW. We attribute this anomaly to the inherited heterogeneity of lithospheric structure, with a possible contribution by the shallow Precambrian basement east of the DST and to lower crustal heterogeneity reported in this region by other seismic studies. We do not observe reliable signature of the DST in the upper mantle structure. Some weak indications of low-velocity anomalies in the upper mantle beneath the DST may well result from the down-smearing of the strong upper crustal anomalies. We also see very little topography of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary beneath the DST, which would generate significant horizontal velocity variations. These results are consistent with predictions from a recent thereto-mechanical model of the DST. Our tomographic model provides some indication of hot mantle flow from the deeper upper mantle rooted in the region of the Red Sea. However, resolution tests show that this anomaly may well be beyond resolution of the model. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The vertical radar profiling (VRP) technique uses surface-to-borehole acquisition geometries comparable to vertical seismic profiling (VSP). Major differences between the two methods do arise due to the fundamentally differing nature of the velocity-depth gradients and transmitter/receiver directivities. Largely for this reason, VRP studies have so far essentially been limited to the reconstruction of velocity-depth profiles by inverting direct arrival times from single-offset VRP surveys. In this study, we investigate the potential to produce high-resolution subsurface reflection images from multi-offset VRP data. Two synthetic data sets are used to evaluate a processing strategy suitably adapted from VSP processing. Despite the fundamental differences between VRP and VSP data, we found that our processing approach is capable of reconstructing subsurface structures of comparable complexity to those routinely imaged by VSP data. Finally, we apply our processing flow to two multi-offset VRP data sets recorded at a well constrained hydrogeophysical test site in SW-Germany. The inferred VRP images are compared with high-quality surface georadar reflection images and lithological logs available at the borehole locations. We find that the VRP images are in good agreement with the surface georadar data and reliably detect the major lithological boundaries. Due to the significantly shorter ray-paths, the depth penetration of the VRP data is, however, considerably higher than that of the surface georadar data. VRP reflection images thus provide an effective means for the depth-calibration and extension of conventional surface georadar data in the vicinity of boreholes.
Coral reefs are tropic to subtropic, coastal ecosystems comprising very diverse organisms. Late Quaternary reef deposits are fossil archives of environmental, tectonic and eustatic variations that can be used to reconstruct the paleoclimatic and paleoceano-graphic history of the tropic surface oceans. Reefs located at the latitudinal limits of coral-reef ecosystems (i.e. those at coral-reef fronts) are particularly sensitive to environmental changes-especially those associated with glacial-interglacial changes in climate and sealevel. We propose a land and ocean scientific drilling campaign in the Ryukyu Islands (the Ryukyus) in the northwestern Pacific Ocean to investigate the dynamic response of the corals and coral-reef ecosystems in this region to Late Quaternary climate and sealevel change. Such a drilling campaign, which we call the COREF (coral-reef front) Project, will allow the following three major questions to be evaluated: (i) What are the nature, magnitude and driving mechanisms of coral-reef front migration in the Ryukyus? (ii) What is the ecosystem response of coral reefs in the Ryukyus to Quaternary climate changes? (iii) What is the role of coral reefs in the global carbon cycle? Subsidiary objectives include (i) the timing of coral-reef initiation in the Ryukyus and its causes; (ii) the position of the Kuroshio current during glacial periods and its effects on coral-reef formation; and (iii) early carbonate diagenetic responses as a function of compounded variations in climate, eustacy and depositional mineralogies (subtropic aragonitic to warm-temperate calcitic). The geographic, climatic and oceanographic settings of the Ryukyu Islands provide an ideal natural laboratory to address each of these research questions.
The first step in the estimation of probabilistic seismic hazard in a region commonly consists of the definition and characterization of the relevant seismic sources. Because in low-seismicity regions seismicity is often rather diffuse and faults are difficult to identify, large areal source zones are mostly used. The corresponding hypothesis is that seismicity is uniformly distributed inside each areal seismic source zone. In this study, the impact of this hypothesis on the probabilistic hazard estimation is quantified through the generation of synthetic spatial seismicity distributions. Fractal seismicity distributions are generated inside a given source zone and probabilistic hazard is computed for a set of sites located inside this zone. In our study, the impact of the spatial seismicity distribution is defined as the deviation from the hazard value obtained for a spatially uniform seismicity distribution. From the generation of a large number of synthetic distributions, the correlation between the fractal dimension D and the impact is derived. The results show that the assumption of spatially uniform seismicity tends to bias the hazard to higher values. The correlation can be used to determine the systematic biases and uncertainties for hazard estimations in real cases, where the fractal dimension has been determined. We apply the technique in Germany (Cologne area) and in France (Alps).
First comparison of array-derived rotational ground motions with direct ring laser measurements
(2006)
Recently, ring laser technology has provided the first consistent observations of rotational ground motions around a vertical axis induced by earthquakes. "Consistent," in this context, implies that the observed waveforms and amplitudes are compatible with collocated recordings of translational ground motions. In particular, transverse accelerations should be in phase with rotation rate and their ratio proportional to local horizontal phase velocity assuming plane-wave propagation. The ring laser installed at the Fundamental station Wettzell in the Bavarian Forest, Southeast Germany, is recording the rotation rate around a vertical axis, theoretically a linear combination of the space derivatives of the horizontal components of motion. This suggests that, in principle, rotation can be derived from seismic-array experiments by "finite differencing." This has been attempted previously in several studies; however, the accuracy of these observations could never be tested in the absence of direct measurements. We installed a double cross-shaped array of nine stations from December 2003 to March 2004 around the ring laser instrument and observed several large earthquakes on both the ring laser and the seismic array. Here we present for the first time a comparison of array-derived rotations with direct measurements of rotations for ground motions induced by the M 6.3 Al Hoceima, Morocco, earthquake of 24 February 2004. With complete 3D synthetic seismograms calculated for this event we show that even low levels of noise may considerably influence the accuracy of the array-derived rotations when the minimum number of required stations (three) is used. Nevertheless, when using all nine stations, the overall fit between direct and array-derived measurements is surprisingly good (maximum correlation coefficient of 0.94).