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Data assimilation has been an active area of research in recent years, owing to its wide utility. At the core of data assimilation are filtering, prediction, and smoothing procedures. Filtering entails incorporation of measurements' information into the model to gain more insight into a given state governed by a noisy state space model. Most natural laws are governed by time-continuous nonlinear models. For the most part, the knowledge available about a model is incomplete; and hence uncertainties are approximated by means of probabilities. Time-continuous filtering, therefore, holds promise for wider usefulness, for it offers a means of combining noisy measurements with imperfect model to provide more insight on a given state.
The solution to time-continuous nonlinear Gaussian filtering problem is provided for by the Kushner-Stratonovich equation. Unfortunately, the Kushner-Stratonovich equation lacks a closed-form solution. Moreover, the numerical approximations based on Taylor expansion above third order are fraught with computational complications. For this reason, numerical methods based on Monte Carlo methods have been resorted to. Chief among these methods are sequential Monte-Carlo methods (or particle filters), for they allow for online assimilation of data. Particle filters are not without challenges: they suffer from particle degeneracy, sample impoverishment, and computational costs arising from resampling.
The goal of this thesis is to:— i) Review the derivation of Kushner-Stratonovich equation from first principles and its extant numerical approximation methods, ii) Study the feedback particle filters as a way of avoiding resampling in particle filters, iii) Study joint state and parameter estimation in time-continuous settings, iv) Apply the notions studied to linear hyperbolic stochastic differential equations.
The interconnection between Itô integrals and stochastic partial differential equations and those of Stratonovich is introduced in anticipation of feedback particle filters. With these ideas and motivated by the variants of ensemble Kalman-Bucy filters founded on the structure of the innovation process, a feedback particle filter with randomly perturbed innovation is proposed. Moreover, feedback particle filters based on coupling of prediction and analysis measures are proposed. They register a better performance than the bootstrap particle filter at lower ensemble sizes.
We study joint state and parameter estimation, both by means of extended state spaces and by use of dual filters. Feedback particle filters seem to perform well in both cases. Finally, we apply joint state and parameter estimation in the advection and wave equation, whose velocity is spatially varying. Two methods are employed: Metropolis Hastings with filter likelihood and a dual filter comprising of Kalman-Bucy filter and ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter. The former performs better than the latter.
We construct eta- and rho-invariants for Dirac operators, on the universal covering of a closed manifold, that are invariant under the projective action associated to a 2-cocycle of the fundamental group. We prove an Atiyah-Patodi-Singer index theorem in this setting, as well as its higher generalisation. Applications concern the classification of positive scalar curvature metrics on closed spin manifolds. We also investigate the properties of these twisted invariants for the signature operator and the relation to the higher invariants.
On a smooth complete Riemannian spin manifold with smooth compact boundary, we demonstrate that Atiyah-Singer Dirac operator in depends Riesz continuously on perturbations of local boundary conditions The Lipschitz bound for the map depends on Lipschitz smoothness and ellipticity of and bounds on Ricci curvature and its first derivatives as well as a lower bound on injectivity radius away from a compact neighbourhood of the boundary. More generally, we prove perturbation estimates for functional calculi of elliptic operators on manifolds with local boundary conditions.
By adapting the Cheeger-Simons approach to differential cohomology, we establish a notion of differential cohomology with compact support. We show that it is functorial with respect to open embeddings and that it fits into a natural diagram of exact sequences which compare it to compactly supported singular cohomology and differential forms with compact support, in full analogy to ordinary differential cohomology. We prove an excision theorem for differential cohomology using a suitable relative version. Furthermore, we use our model to give an independent proof of Pontryagin duality for differential cohomology recovering a result of [Harvey, Lawson, Zweck - Amer. J. Math. 125 (2003), 791]: On any oriented manifold, ordinary differential cohomology is isomorphic to the smooth Pontryagin dual of compactly supported differential cohomology. For manifolds of finite-type, a similar result is obtained interchanging ordinary with compactly supported differential cohomology.
We study the spectral location of a strongly pattern equivariant Hamiltonians arising through configurations on a colored lattice. Roughly speaking, two configurations are "close to each other" if, up to a translation, they "almost coincide" on a large fixed ball. The larger this ball, the more similar they are, and this induces a metric on the space of the corresponding dynamical systems. Our main result states that the map which sends a given configuration into the spectrum of its associated Hamiltonian, is Holder (even Lipschitz) continuous in the usual Hausdorff metric. Specifically, the spectral distance of two Hamiltonians is estimated by the distance of the corresponding dynamical systems.
Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 +/- 0.15 degrees C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 +/- 0.10 degrees C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 +/- 0.05 degrees C and in Antarctica by 0.37 +/- 0.10 degrees C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 +/- 0.12 degrees C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.
We obtain a Bernstein-type inequality for sums of Banach-valued random variables satisfying a weak dependence assumption of general type and under certain smoothness assumptions of the underlying Banach norm. We use this inequality in order to investigate in the asymptotical regime the error upper bounds for the broad family of spectral regularization methods for reproducing kernel decision rules, when trained on a sample coming from a tau-mixing process.
For a singularly perturbed parabolic - ODE system we construct the asymptotic expansion in the small parameter in the case, when the degenerate equation has a double root. Such systems, which are called partly dissipative reaction-diffusion systems, are used to model various natural processes, including the signal transmission along axons, solid combustion and the kinetics of some chemical reactions. It turns out that the algorithm of the construction of the boundary layer functions and the behavior of the solution in the boundary layers essentially differ from that ones in case of a simple root. The multizonal initial and boundary layers behaviour was stated.
We study the spectral properties of curl, a linear differential operator of first order acting on differential forms of appropriate degree on an odd-dimensional closed oriented Riemannian manifold. In three dimensions, its eigenvalues are the electromagnetic oscillation frequencies in vacuum without external sources. In general, the spectrum consists of the eigenvalue 0 with infinite multiplicity and further real discrete eigenvalues of finite multiplicity. We compute the Weyl asymptotics and study the zeta-function. We give a sharp lower eigenvalue bound for positively curved manifolds and analyze the equality case. Finally, we compute the spectrum for flat tori, round spheres, and 3-dimensional spherical space forms. Published under license by AIP Publishing.
We show that the Dirac operator on a compact globally hyperbolic Lorentzian spacetime with spacelike Cauchy boundary is a Fredholm operator if appropriate boundary conditions are imposed. We prove that the index of this operator is given by the same expression as in the index formula of Atiyah-Patodi-Singer for Riemannian manifolds with boundary. The index is also shown to equal that of a certain operator constructed from the evolution operator and a spectral projection on the boundary. In case the metric is of product type near the boundary a Feynman parametrix is constructed.
We study the mathematical structure underlying the concept of locality which lies at the heart of classical and quantum field theory, and develop a machinery used to preserve locality during the renormalisation procedure. Viewing renormalisation in the framework of Connes and Kreimer as the algebraic Birkhoff factorisation of characters on a Hopf algebra with values in a Rota-Baxter algebra, we build locality variants of these algebraic structures, leading to a locality variant of the algebraic Birkhoff factorisation. This provides an algebraic formulation of the conservation of locality while renormalising. As an application in the context of the Euler-Maclaurin formula on lattice cones, we renormalise the exponential generating function which sums over the lattice points in a lattice cone. As a consequence, for a suitable multivariate regularisation, renormalisation from the algebraic Birkhoff factorisation amounts to composition by a projection onto holomorphic multivariate germs.
Our first result concerns a characterization by means of a functional equation of Poisson point processes conditioned by the value of their first moment. It leads to a generalized version of Mecke’s formula. En passant, it also allows us to gain quantitative results about stochastic domination for Poisson point processes under linear constraints. Since bridges of a pure jump Lévy process in Rd with a height a can be interpreted as a Poisson point process on space–time conditioned by pinning its first moment to a, our approach allows us to characterize bridges of Lévy processes by means of a functional equation. The latter result has two direct applications: First, we obtain a constructive and simple way to sample Lévy bridge dynamics; second, it allows us to estimate the number of jumps for such bridges. We finally show that our method remains valid for linearly perturbed Lévy processes like periodic Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes driven by Lévy noise.
A term t is linear if no variable occurs more than once in t. An identity s ≈ t is said to be linear if s and t are linear terms. Identities are particular formulas. As for terms superposition operations can be defined for formulas too. We define the arbitrary linear formulas and seek for a condition for the set of all linear formulas to be closed under superposition. This will be used to define the partial superposition operations on the set of linear formulas and a partial many-sorted algebra Formclonelin(τ, τ′). This algebra has similar properties with the partial many-sorted clone of all linear terms. We extend the concept of a hypersubstitution of type τ to the linear hypersubstitutions of type (τ, τ′) for algebraic systems. The extensions of linear hypersubstitutions of type (τ, τ′) send linear formulas to linear formulas, presenting weak endomorphisms of Formclonelin(τ, τ′).
Packungen aus Kreisscheiben
(2019)
Der englische Seefahrer Sir Walter Raleigh fragte sich einst, wie er in seinem Schiffsladeraum moeglichst viele Kanonenkugeln stapeln koennte. Johannes Kepler entwickelte daraufhin 1611 eine Vermutung ueber die optimale Anordnung der Kugeln. Diese Vermutung sollte sich als eine der haertesten mathematischen Nuesse der Geschichte erweisen. Selbst in der Ebene sind dichteste Packungen kongruenter Kreise eine Herausforderung. 1892 und 1910 veroeffentlichte Axel Thue (kritisierte) Beweise, dass die hexagonale Kreispackung optimal sei. Erst 1940 lieferte Laszlo Fejes Toth schliesslich einen wasserdichten Beweis fuer diese Tatsache. Eine Variante des Problems verlangt,
Packungen mit endlich vielen kongruenten Kugeln zu finden, die eine gewisse quadratische Energie minimieren: Diese spannende geometrische Aufgabe wurde 1967 von Toth gestellt. Sie ist auch heute noch nicht vollstaendig gelaest. In diesem Beitrag schlagen die Autorinnen eine originelle wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretische Methode vor, um in der Ebene Näherungen der Lösung zu konstruieren.
For a finite measure space X, we characterize strongly continuous Markov lattice semigroups on Lp(X) by showing that their generator A acts as a derivation on the dense subspace D(A)L(X). We then use this to characterize Koopman semigroups on Lp(X) if X is a standard probability space. In addition, we show that every measurable and measure-preserving flow on a standard probability space is isomorphic to a continuous flow on a compact Borel probability space.
Background: Circulating infliximab (IFX) concentrations correlate with clinical outcomes, forming the basis of the IFX concentration monitoring in patients with Crohn's disease. This study aims to investigate and refine the exposure-response relationship by linking the disease activity markers "Crohn's disease activity index" (CDAI) and C-reactive protein (CRP) to IFX exposure. In addition, we aim to explore the correlations between different disease markers and exposure metrics.
Methods: Data from 47 Crohn's disease patients of a randomized controlled trial were analyzed post hoc. All patients had secondary treatment failure at inclusion and had received intensified IFX of 5 mg/kg every 4 weeks for up to 20 weeks. Graphical analyses were performed to explore exposure-response relationships. Metrics of exposure included area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) and trough concentrations (Cmin). Disease activity was measured by CDAI and CRP values, their change from baseline/last visit, and response/remission outcomes at week 12.
Results: Although trends toward lower Cmin and lower AUC in nonresponders were observed, neither CDAI nor CRP showed consistent trends of lower disease activity with higher IFX exposure across the 30 evaluated relationships. As can be expected, Cmin and AUC were strongly correlated with each other. Contrarily, the disease activity markers were only weakly correlated with each other.
Conclusions: No significant relationship between disease activity, as evaluated by CDAI or CRP, and IFX exposure was identified. AUC did not add benefit compared with Cmin. These findings support the continued use of Cmin and call for stringent objective disease activity (bio-)markers (eg, endoscopy) to form the basis of personalized IFX therapy for Crohn's disease patients with IFX treatment failure.
A zig-zag (or fence) order is a special partial order on a (finite) set. In this paper, we consider the semigroup TFn of all order-preserving transformations on an n-element zig-zag-ordered set. We determine the rank of TFn and provide a minimal generating set for TFn. Moreover, a formula for the number of idempotents in TFn is given.
We present new conditions for semigroups of positive operators to converge strongly as time tends to infinity. Our proofs are based on a novel approach combining the well-known splitting theorem by Jacobs, de Leeuw, and Glicksberg with a purely algebraic result about positive group representations. Thus, we obtain convergence theorems not only for one-parameter semigroups but also for a much larger class of semigroup representations. Our results allow for a unified treatment of various theorems from the literature that, under technical assumptions, a bounded positive C-0-semigroup containing or dominating a kernel operator converges strongly as t ->infinity. We gain new insights into the structure theoretical background of those theorems and generalize them in several respects; especially we drop any kind of continuity or regularity assumption with respect to the time parameter.