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Antarctic glacier forfields are extreme environments and pioneer sites for ecological succession. The Antarctic continent shows microbial community development as a natural laboratory because of its special environment, geographic isolation and little anthropogenic influence. Increasing temperatures due to global warming lead to enhanced deglaciation processes in cold-affected habitats and new terrain is becoming exposed to soil formation and accessible for microbial colonisation. This study aims to understand the structure and development of glacier forefield bacterial communities, especially how soil parameters impact the microorganisms and how those are adapted to the extreme conditions of the habitat. To this effect, a combination of cultivation experiments, molecular, geophysical and geochemical analysis was applied to examine two glacier forfields of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica. Culture-independent molecular tools such as terminal restriction length polymorphism (T-RFLP), clone libraries and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) were used to determine bacterial diversity and distribution. Cultivation of yet unknown species was carried out to get insights in the physiology and adaptation of the microorganisms. Adaptation strategies of the microorganisms were studied by determining changes of the cell membrane phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) inventory of an isolated bacterium in response to temperature and pH fluctuations and by measuring enzyme activity at low temperature in environmental soil samples. The two studied glacier forefields are extreme habitats characterised by low temperatures, low water availability and small oligotrophic nutrient pools and represent sites of different bacterial succession in relation to soil parameters. The investigated sites showed microbial succession at an early step of soil formation near the ice tongue in comparison to closely located but rather older and more developed soil from the forefield. At the early step the succession is influenced by a deglaciation-dependent areal shift of soil parameters followed by a variable and prevalently depth-related distribution of the soil parameters that is driven by the extreme Antarctic conditions. The dominant taxa in the glacier forefields are Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria and Chloroflexi. The connection of soil characteristics with bacterial community structure showed that soil parameter and soil formation along the glacier forefield influence the distribution of certain phyla. In the early step of succession the relative undifferentiated bacterial diversity reflects the undifferentiated soil development and has a high potential to shift according to past and present environmental conditions. With progressing development environmental constraints such as water or carbon limitation have a greater influence. Adapting the culturing conditions to the cold and oligotrophic environment, the number of culturable heterotrophic bacteria reached up to 108 colony forming units per gram soil and 148 isolates were obtained. Two new psychrotolerant bacteria, Herbaspirillum psychrotolerans PB1T and Chryseobacterium frigidisoli PB4T, were characterised in detail and described as novel species in the family of Oxalobacteraceae and Flavobacteriaceae, respectively. The isolates are able to grow at low temperatures tolerating temperature fluctuations and they are not specialised to a certain substrate, therefore they are well-adapted to the cold and oligotrophic environment. The adaptation strategies of the microorganisms were analysed in environmental samples and cultures focussing on extracellular enzyme activity at low temperature and PLFA analyses. Extracellular phosphatases (pH 11 and pH 6.5), β-glucosidase, invertase and urease activity were detected in the glacier forefield soils at low temperature (14°C) catalysing the conversion of various compounds providing necessary substrates and may further play a role in the soil formation and total carbon turnover of the habitat. The PLFA analysis of the newly isolated species C. frigidisoli showed that the cold-adapted strain develops different strategies to maintain the cell membrane function under changing environmental conditions by altering the PLFA inventory at different temperatures and pH values. A newly discovered fatty acid, which was not found in any other microorganism so far, significantly increased at decreasing temperature and low pH and thus plays an important role in the adaption of C. frigidisoli. This work gives insights into the diversity, distribution and adaptation mechanisms of microbial communities in oligotrophic cold-affected soils and shows that Antarctic glacier forefields are suitable model systems to study bacterial colonisation in connection to soil formation.
In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage.
Local adaptation to different pollinators is considered one of the possible initial stages of ecological speciation as reproductive isolation is a by-product of the divergence in pollination systems. However, pollinator-mediated divergent selection will not necessarily result in complete reproductive isolation, because incipient speciation is often overcome by gene flow. We investigated the potential of pollinator shift in the sexually deceptive orchids Ophrys sphegodes and Ophrys exaltata and compared the levels of floral isolation vs. genetic distance among populations with contrasting predominant pollinators. We analysed floral hydrocarbons as a proxy for floral divergence between populations. Floral adoption of pollinators and their fidelity was tested using pollinator choice experiments. Interpopulation gene flow and population differentiation levels were estimated using AFLP markers. The Tyrrhenian O.sphegodes population preferentially attracted the pollinator bee Andrena bimaculata, whereas the Adriatic O.sphegodes population exclusively attracted A.nigroaenea. Significant differences in scent component proportions were identified in O.sphegodes populations that attracted different preferred pollinators. High interpopulation gene flow was detected, but populations were genetically structured at species level. The high interpopulation gene flow levels independent of preferred pollinators suggest that local adaptation to different pollinators has not (yet) generated detectable genome-wide separation. Alternatively, despite extensive gene flow, few genes underlying floral isolation remain differentiated as a consequence of divergent selection. Different pollination ecotypes in O.sphegodes might represent a local selective response imposed by temporal variation in a geographical mosaic of pollinators as a consequence of the frequent disturbance regimes typical of Ophrys habitats.
Preface
(2016)
Anatomical changes in extinct mammalian lineages over evolutionary time, such as the loss of fingers and teeth and the rapid increase in body size that accompanied the late Miocene dispersal of the progenitors of Steller's sea cows (Hydrodamalis gigas (Zimmermann, 1780)) into North Pacific waters and the convergent development of a thick pelage and accompanying reductions in ear and tail surface area of woolly mammoths (Mammuthus primigenius (Blumenbach, 1799)) and woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis (Blumenbach, 1799)), are prime examples of adaptive evolution underlying the exploitation of new habitats. It is likely, however, that biochemical specializations adopted during these evolutionary transitions were of similar or even greater biological importance. As these "living" processes do not fossilize, direct information regarding the physiological attributes of extinct species has largely remained beyond the range of scientific inquiry. However, the ability to retrieve genomic sequences from ancient DNA samples, combined with ectopic expression systems, now permit the evolutionary origins and structural and functional properties of authentic prehistoric proteins to be examined in great detail. Exponential technical advances in ancient DNA retrieval, enrichment, and sequencing will soon permit targeted generation of complete genomes from hundreds of extinct species across the last one million years that, in combination with emerging in vitro expression, genome engineering, and cell differentiation techniques, promises to herald an exciting new trajectory of evolutionary research at the interface of biochemistry, genomics, palaeontology, and cell biology.
We compiled global occurrence data sets of 13 congeneric sexual and apomictic species pairs, and used principal components analysis (PCA) and kernel smoothers to compare changes in climatic niche optima, breadths and unfilling/expansion between native and alien ranges. Niche change metrics were compared between sexual and apomictic species. All 26 species showed changes in niche optima and/or breadth and 14 species significantly expanded their climatic niches. However, we found no effect of the reproductive system on niche dynamics. Instead, species with narrower native niches showed higher rates of niche expansion in the alien ranges. Our results suggest that niche shifts are frequent in plant invasions but evolutionary potential may not be of major importance for such shifts. Niche dynamics rather appear to be driven by changes of the realized niche without adaptive change of the fundamental climatic niche.
Following the extinction of dinosaurs, the great adaptive radiation of mammals occurred, giving rise to an astonishing ecological and phenotypic diversity of mammalian species. Even closely related species often inhabit vastly different habitats, where they encounter diverse environmental challenges and are exposed to different evolutionary pressures. As a response, mammals evolved various adaptive phenotypes over time, such as morphological, physiological and behavioural ones. Mammalian genomes vary in their content and structure and this variation represents the molecular mechanism for the long-term evolution of phenotypic variation. However, understanding this molecular basis of adaptive phenotypic variation is usually not straightforward.
The recent development of sequencing technologies and bioinformatics tools has enabled a better insight into mammalian genomes. Through these advances, it was acknowledged that mammalian genomes differ more, both within and between species, as a consequence of structural variation compared to single-nucleotide differences. Structural variant types investigated in this thesis - such as deletion, duplication, inversion and insertion, represent a change in the structure of the genome, impacting the size, copy number, orientation and content of DNA sequences. Unlike short variants, structural variants can span multiple genes. They can alter gene dosage, and cause notable gene expression differences and subsequently phenotypic differences. Thus, they can lead to a more dramatic effect on the fitness (reproductive success) of individuals, local adaptation of populations and speciation.
In this thesis, I investigated and evaluated the potential functional effect of structural variations on the genomes of mustelid species. To detect the genomic regions associated with phenotypic variation I assembled the first reference genome of the tayra (Eira barbara) relying on linked-read sequencing technology to achieve a high level of genome completeness important for reliable structural variant discovery. I then set up a bioinformatics pipeline to conduct a comparative genomic analysis and explore variation between mustelid species living in different environments. I found numerous genes associated with species-specific phenotypes related to diet, body condition and reproduction among others, to be impacted by structural variants.
Furthermore, I investigated the effects of artificial selection on structural variants in mice selected for high fertility, increased body mass and high endurance. Through selective breeding of each mouse line, the desired phenotypes have spread within these populations, while maintaining structural variants specific to each line. In comparison to the control line, the litter size has doubled in the fertility lines, individuals in the high body mass lines have become considerably larger, and mice selected for treadmill performance covered substantially more distance. Structural variants were found in higher numbers in these trait-selected lines than in the control line when compared to the mouse reference genome. Moreover, we have found twice as many structural variants spanning protein-coding genes (specific to each line) in trait-selected lines. Several of these variants affect genes associated with selected phenotypic traits. These results imply that structural variation does indeed contribute to the evolution of the selected phenotypes and is heritable.
Finally, I suggest a set of critical metrics of genomic data that should be considered for a stringent structural variation analysis as comparative genomic studies strongly rely on the contiguity and completeness of genome assemblies. Because most of the available data used to represent reference genomes of mammalian species is generated using short-read sequencing technologies, we may have incomplete knowledge of genomic features. Therefore, a cautious structural variation analysis is required to minimize the effect of technical constraints.
The impact of structural variants on the adaptive evolution of mammalian genomes is slowly gaining more focus but it is still incorporated in only a small number of population studies. In my thesis, I advocate the inclusion of structural variants in studies of genomic diversity for a more comprehensive insight into genomic variation within and between species, and its effect on adaptive evolution.
Species of the mustelid subfamily Guloninae inhabit diverse habitats on multiple continents, and occupy a variety of ecological niches. They differ in feeding ecologies, reproductive strategies and morphological adaptations. To identify candidate loci associated with adaptations to their respective environments, we generated a de novo assembly of the tayra (Eira barbara), the earliest diverging species in the subfamily, and compared this with the genomes available for the wolverine (Gulo gulo) and the sable (Martes zibellina). Our comparative genomic analyses included searching for signs of positive selection, examining changes in gene family sizes and searching for species-specific structural variants. Among candidate loci associated with phenotypic traits, we observed many related to diet, body condition and reproduction. For example, for the tayra, which has an atypical gulonine reproductive strategy of aseasonal breeding, we observed species-specific changes in many pregnancy-related genes. For the wolverine, a circumpolar hypercarnivore that must cope with seasonal food scarcity, we observed many changes in genes associated with diet and body condition. All types of genomic variation examined (single nucleotide polymorphisms, gene family expansions, structural variants) contributed substantially to the identification of candidate loci. This argues strongly for consideration of variation other than single nucleotide polymorphisms in comparative genomics studies aiming to identify loci of adaptive significance.
Küsten und Klimawandel in den Augen von Touristen : eine Wahrnehmungsanalyse an der deutschen Ostsee
(2011)
Aufgrund seiner wirtschaftlichen Bedeutung spielt der Tourismus in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern eine große Rolle. Insbesondere die Küstengebiete sind beliebte Reiseziele. In den letzten Jahren konnte ein kontinuierlicher Anstieg der Ankünfte und Übernachtungen verzeichnet werden. Neben anderen Faktoren werden die regionalen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels jedoch in Zukunft eine Herausforderung für den Tourismussektor darstellen. Die globale Erwärmung wird für den Strand- und Badetourismus sowohl negative, als auch positive Folgen haben, auf die reagiert werden muss. Neben vorbeugenden Klimaschutzmaßnahmen werden künftig auch Anpassungsstrategien entwickelt werden müssen, die den zu erwartenden Veränderungen Rechnung tragen. Doch zu welchen tourismusrelevanten Veränderungen wird es überhaupt kommen und was geschieht bereits aktuell? Sind die Folgen des Klimawandels durch Touristen schon jetzt wahrnehmbar? Wie reagieren die Urlauber auf eventuelle Veränderungen? Diese und andere Fragen soll die vorliegende Arbeit, die innerhalb des RAdOST-Vorhabens (Regionale Anpassungsstrategien für die deutsche Ostseeküste) angesiedelt ist, beantworten. Dazu wurde zum einen eine Literaturrecherche zu tourismusrelevanten Klimawandelfolgen an der deutschen Ostseeküste durchgeführt. Zum anderen erfolgte in den Sommermonaten 2010 eine Befragung der Strandgäste in Markgrafenheide, Warnemünde und Nienhagen an der mecklenburgischen Ostseeküste. Im Mittelpunkt der Umfrage stand die Wahrnehmung von Erscheinungen (z.B. viele Quallen oder warmes Ostseewasser) sowie kurz- oder langfristigen Veränderungen an der Küste (z.B. schmalere Strände, vermehrter Strandanwurf) durch die Urlauber. Außerdem wurden die Einstellung und der Informationsgrad der Gäste zum Thema Klimawandel an der Ostseeküste analysiert. Ziel war es, aus den Umfrageergebnissen Handlungsempfehlungen für das lokale Strandmanagement hinsichtlich künftiger Anpassungsstrategien abzuleiten. Die Literaturrecherche zeigte, dass in einigen Bereichen schon jetzt Veränderungen (z.B. der Luft- und Wassertemperatur oder des Meeresspiegels) nachweisbar sind und laut verschiedener Modellprojektionen von weiteren Veränderungen ausgegangen werden kann. Wie die Umfrage deutlich machte, sind die Veränderungen momentan durch Touristen jedoch kaum oder gar nicht wahrnehmbar. Dementsprechend gering ist auch ihre Reaktion auf die einzelnen Phänomene. Generell ist die Wahrnehmung der Urlauber sehr subjektiv und selektiv. Manche Gegebenheiten wie beispielsweise existierende Küstenschutzmaßnahmen werden von einem großen Teil der Touristen gar nicht wahrgenommen. Hinsichtlich anderer Erscheinungen wie Strandanwurf und Quallen sind viele Besucher wiederum sehr sensibel. Es zeigte sich außerdem, dass es für die meisten Urlauber schwierig ist, zu beurteilen, ob bestimmte Gegebenheiten am Strand und an der Küste mit der globalen Erwärmung in Verbindung stehen oder nicht. Es besteht eine große Unsicherheit zu diesem Thema und oft wird der Klimawandel als Ursache für Erscheinungen genannt, auch wenn der kausale Zusammenhang wissenschaftlich nicht nachzuweisen ist. Es zeigte sich, dass die Urlauber sehr wenig über die regionalen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels informiert sind, sich aber Informationen wünschen. Folglich sollte zunächst die Aufklärung und Information der Urlauber über die Folgen der Veränderung des Klimas im Vordergrund stehen. Denn manche Aspekte, wie der Verlust von Strandabschnitten durch Erosion oder eine eventuelle Zunahme von Blaualgen in der Sommersaison, können nicht gänzlich vermieden werden. Durch gezielte Aufklärung könnte jedoch beispielsweise eine Akzeptanz für naturnahe Strände oder für den Rückzug aus einzelnen Gebieten geschaffen werden. Darüber hinaus sollte die zu erwartende Saisonverlängerung systematisch genutzt werden, um sowohl die Küste, als auch das Hinterland durch gezielte Angebote für Touristen attraktiv zu machen. Auf diese Weise könnte eine Entzerrung der Hauptsaison und eine bessere Auslastung der Beherbergungsbetriebe sowie der touristischen Infrastruktur erreicht werden.
The study of perceptual flexibility in speech depends on a variety of tasks that feature a large degree of variability between participants. Of critical interest is whether measures are consistent within an individual or across stimulus contexts. This is particularly key for individual difference designs that are deployed to examine the neural basis or clinical consequences of perceptual flexibility. In the present set of experiments, we assess the split-half reliability and construct validity of five measures of perceptual flexibility: three of learning in a native language context (e.g., understanding someone with a foreign accent) and two of learning in a non-native context (e.g., learning to categorize non-native speech sounds). We find that most of these tasks show an appreciable level of split-half reliability, although construct validity was sometimes weak. This provides good evidence for reliability for these tasks, while highlighting possible upper limits on expected effect sizes involving each measure.
Background Recent studies indicate the existence of a repeated bout effect on the contralateral untrained limb following eccentric and isometric contractions. Aims This review aims to summarize the evidence for magnitude, duration and differences of this effect following isometric and eccentric preconditioning exercises. Methods Medline, Cochrane, and Web of science were searched from January 1971 until September 2020. Randomized controlled trials, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies were identified by combining keywords and synonyms (e.g., "contralateral", "exercise", "preconditioning", "protective effect"). At least two of the following outcome parameters were mandatory for study inclusion: strength, muscle soreness, muscle swelling, limb circumference, inflammatory blood markers or protective index (relative change of aforementioned measures). Results After identifying 1979 articles, 13 studies were included. Most investigations examined elbow flexors and utilized eccentric isokinetic protocols to induce the contralateral repeated bout effect. The magnitude of protection was observed in four studies, smaller values of the contralateral when compared to the ipsilateral repeated bout effect were noted in three studies. The potential mechanism is thought to be of neural central nature since no differences in peripheral muscle activity were observed. Time course was examined in three investigations. One study showed a smaller protective effect following isometric preconditioning when compared to eccentric preconditioning exercises. Conclusions The contralateral repeated bout effect demonstrates a smaller magnitude and lasts shorter than the ipsilateral repeated bout effect. Future research should incorporate long-term controlled trials including larger populations to identify central mechanisms. This knowledge should be used in clinical practice to prepare immobilized limbs prospectively for an incremental load.
The functional significance of the N400 evoked-response component is still actively debated. An increasing amount of theoretical and computational modelling work is built on the interpretation of the N400 as a prediction error. In neural network modelling work, it was proposed that the N400 component can be interpreted as the change in a probabilistic representation of meaning that drives the continuous adaptation of an internal model of the statistics of the environment. These results imply that increased N400 amplitudes should correspond to greater adaptation, which can be measured via implicit memory. To investigate this model derived hypothesis, the current study manipulated expectancy in a sentence reading task to influence N400 amplitudes and subsequently presented the previously expected vs. unexpected words in a perceptual identification task to measure implicit memory. As predicted, reaction times in the perceptual identification task were significantly faster for previously unexpected words that induced larger N400 amplitudes in the previous sentence reading task. Additionally, it could be demonstrated that this adaptation seems to specifically depend on the process underlying N400 amplitudes, as participants with larger N400 differences during sentence reading also exhibited a larger implicit memory benefit in the perceptual identification task. These findings support the interpretation of the N400 as an implicit learning signal driving adaptation in language processing.
Integrated flood management strategies consider property-level precautionary measures as a vital part. Whereas this is a well-researched topic for residents, little is known about the adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies although they often settle on the ground floor of buildings and are thus among the first affected by flooding. This pilot study analyses flood responses of 64 businesses in a district of the city of Dresden, Germany that experienced major flooding in 2002 and 2013. Using standardised survey data and accompanying qualitative interviews, the analyses revealed that the largest driver of adaptive behaviour is experiencing flood events. Intangible factors such as tradition and a sense of community play a role for the decision to stay in the area, while lacking ownership might hamper property-level adaptation. Further research is also needed to understand the role of insurance and governmental aid for recovery and adaptation of businesses.
Integrated flood management strategies consider property-level precautionary measures as a vital part. Whereas this is a well-researched topic for residents, little is known about the adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies although they often settle on the ground floor of buildings and are thus among the first affected by flooding. This pilot study analyses flood responses of 64 businesses in a district of the city of Dresden, Germany that experienced major flooding in 2002 and 2013. Using standardised survey data and accompanying qualitative interviews, the analyses revealed that the largest driver of adaptive behaviour is experiencing flood events. Intangible factors such as tradition and a sense of community play a role for the decision to stay in the area, while lacking ownership might hamper property-level adaptation. Further research is also needed to understand the role of insurance and governmental aid for recovery and adaptation of businesses.
Plants have evolved numerous molecular strategies to cope with perturbations in environmental temperature, and to adjust growth and physiology to limit the negative effects of extreme temperature. One of the strategies involves alternative splicing of primary transcripts to encode alternative protein products or transcript variants destined for degradation by nonsense-mediated decay. Here, we review how changes in environmental temperature-cold, heat, and moderate alterations in temperature-affect alternative splicing in plants, including crops. We present examples of the mode of action of various temperature-induced splice variants and discuss how these alternative splicing events enable favourable plant responses to altered temperatures. Finally, we point out unanswered questions that should be addressed to fully utilize the endogenous mechanisms in plants to adjust their growth to environmental temperature. We also indicate how this knowledge might be used to enhance crop productivity in the future.
In times of ongoing biodiversity loss, understanding how communities are structured and what mechanisms and local adaptations underlie the patterns we observe in nature is crucial for predicting how future ecological and anthropogenic changes might affect local and regional biodiversity. Aquatic zooplankton are a group of primary consumers that represent a critical link in the food chain, providing nutrients for the entire food web. Thus, understanding the adaptability and structure of zooplankton communities is essential. In this work, the genetic basis for the different temperature adaptations of two seasonally shifted (i.e., temperature-dependent) occurring freshwater rotifers of a formerly cryptic species complex (Brachionus calyciflorus) was investigated to understand the overall genetic diversity and evolutionary scenario for putative adaptations to different temperature regimes. Furthermore, this work aimed to clarify to what extent the different temperature adaptations may represent a niche partitioning process thus enabling co-existence. The findings were then embedded in a metacommunity context to understand how zooplankton communities assemble in a kettle hole metacommunity located in the northeastern German "Uckermark" and which underlying processes contribute to the biodiversity patterns we observe. Using a combined approach of newly generated mitochondrial resources (genomes/cds) and the analysis of a candidate gene (Heat Shock Protein 40kDa) for temperature adaptation, I showed that the global representatives of B. calyciflorus s.s.. are genetically more similar than B. fernandoi (average pairwise nucleotide diversity: 0.079 intraspecific vs. 0.257 interspecific) indicating that both species carry different standing genetic variation. In addition to differential expression in the thermotolerant B. calyciflorus s.s. and thermosensitive B. fernandoi, the HSP 40kDa also showed structural variation with eleven fixed and six positively selected sites, some of which are located in functional areas of the protein. The estimated divergence time of ~ 25-29 Myr combined with the fixed sites and a prevalence of ancestral amino acids in B. calyciflorus s.s. indicate that B. calyciflorus s.s. remained in the ancestral niche, while B. fernandoi partitioned into a new niche. The comparison of mitochondrial and nuclear markers (HPS 40kDa, ITS1, COI) revealed a hybridisation event between the two species. However, as hybridisation between the two species is rare, it can be concluded that the temporally isolated niches (i.e., seasonal-shifted occurrence) they inhabit based on their different temperature preferences most likely represent a pre-zygotic isolation mechanism that allows sympatric occurrence while maintaining species boundaries. To determine the processes underlying zooplankton community assembly, a zooplankton metacommunity comprising 24 kettle holes was sampled over a two-year period. Active (i.e., water samples) and dormant communities (i.e., dormant eggs hatched from sediment) were identified using a two-fragment DNA metabarcoding approach (COI and 18S). Species richness and diversity as well as community composition were analysed considering spatial, temporal and environmental parameters. The analysis revealed that environmental filtering based on parameters such as pH, size and location of the habitat patch (i.e., kettle hole) and surrounding field crops largely determined zooplankton community composition (explained variance: Bray-Curtis dissimilarities: 10.5%; Jaccard dissimilarities: 12.9%), indicating that adaptation to a particular habitat is a key feature of zooplankton species in this system. While the spatial configuration of the kettle holes played a minor role (explained variance: Bray-Curtis dissimilarities: 2.8% and Jaccard dissimilarities: 5.5%), the individual kettle hole sites had a significant influence on the community composition. This suggests monopolisation/priority effects (i.e., dormant communities) of certain species in individual kettle holes. As environmental filtering is the dominating process structuring zooplankton communities, this system could be significantly influenced by future land-use change, pollution and climate change.
Adaptation to flood risk
(2017)
As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.
Flood warning systems are longstanding success stories with respect to protecting human life, but monetary losses continue to grow. Knowledge on the effectiveness of flood early warning in reducing monetary losses is scarce, especially at the individual level. To gain more knowledge in this area, we analyze a dataset that is unique with respect to detailed information on warning reception and monetary losses at the property level and with respect to amount of data available. The dataset contains 4,468 loss cases from six flood events in Germany. These floods occurred between 2002 and 2013. The data from each event were collected by computer-aided telephone interviews in four surveys following a repeated cross-sectional design. We quantitatively reveal that flood early warning is only effective in reducing monetary losses when people know what to do when they receive the warning. We also show that particularly long-term preparedness is associated with people knowing what to do when they receive a warning. Thus, risk communication, training, and (financial) support for private preparedness are effective in mitigating flood losses in two ways: precautionary measures and more effective emergency responses.
Global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under different climate futures
(2022)
Heat and increasing ambient temperatures under climate change represent a serious threat to human health in cities. Heat exposure has been studied extensively at a global scale. Studies comparing a defined temperature threshold with the future daytime temperature during a certain period of time, had concluded an increase in threat to human health. Such findings however do not explicitly account for possible changes in future human heat adaptation and might even overestimate heat exposure. Thus, heat adaptation and its development is still unclear. Human heat adaptation refers to the local temperature to which populations are adjusted to. It can be inferred from the lowest point of the U- or V-shaped heat-mortality relationship (HMR), the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). While epidemiological studies inform on the MMT at the city scale for case studies, a general model applicable at the global scale to infer on temporal change in MMTs had not yet been realised. The conventional approach depends on data availability, their robustness, and on the access to daily mortality records at the city scale. Thorough analysis however must account for future changes in the MMT as heat adaptation happens partially passively. Human heat adaptation consists of two aspects: (1) the intensity of the heat hazard that is still tolerated by human populations, meaning the heat burden they can bear and (2) the wealth-induced technological, social and behavioural measures that can be employed to avoid heat exposure. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and quantify human heat adaptation among urban populations at a global scale under the current climate and to project future adaptation under climate change until the end of the century. To date, this has not yet been accomplished. The evaluation of global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under climate change comprises three levels of analysis. First, using the example of Germany, the MMT is calculated at the city level by applying the conventional method. Second, this thesis compiles a data pool of 400 urban MMTs to develop and train a new model capable of estimating MMTs on the basis of physical and socio-economic city characteristics using multivariate non-linear multivariate regression. The MMT is successfully described as a function of the current climate, the topography and the socio-economic standard, independently of daily mortality data for cities around the world. The city-specific MMT estimates represents a measure of human heat adaptation among the urban population. In a final third analysis, the model to derive human heat adaptation was adjusted to be driven by projected climate and socio-economic variables for the future. This allowed for estimation of the MMT and its change for 3 820 cities worldwide for different combinations of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways until 2100. The knowledge on the evolution of heat adaptation in the future is a novelty as mostly heat exposure and its future development had been researched. In this work, changes in heat adaptation and exposure were analysed jointly. A wide range of possible health-related outcomes up to 2100 was the result, of which two scenarios with the highest socio-economic developments but opposing strong warming levels were highlighted for comparison. Strong economic growth based upon fossil fuel exploitation is associated with a high gain in heat adaptation, but may not be able to compensate for the associated negative health effects due to increased heat exposure in 30% to 40% of the cities investigated caused by severe climate change. A slightly less strong, but sustainable growth brings moderate gains in heat adaptation but a lower heat exposure and exposure reductions in 80% to 84% of the cities in terms of frequency (number of days exceeding the MMT) and intensity (magnitude of the MMT exceedance) due to a milder global warming. Choosing a 2 ° C compatible development by 2100 would therefore lower the risk of heat-related mortality at the end of the century. In summary, this thesis makes diverse and multidisciplinary contributions to a deeper understanding of human adaptation to heat under the current and the future climate. It is one of the first studies to carry out a systematic and statistical analysis of urban characteristics which are useful as MMT drivers to establish a generalised model of human heat adaptation, applicable at the global level. A broad range of possible heat-related health options for various future scenarios was shown for the first time. This work is of relevance for the assessment of heat-health impacts in regions where mortality data are not accessible or missing. The results are useful for health care planning at the meso- and macro-level and to urban- and climate change adaptation planning. Lastly, beyond having met the posed objective, this thesis advances research towards a global future impact assessment of heat on human health by providing an alternative method of MMT estimation, that is spatially and temporally flexible in its application.
The occurrence of refugia beyond the arctic treeline and genetic adaptation therein play a crucial role of largely unknown effect size. While refugia have potential for rapidly colonizing the tundra under global warming, the taxa may be maladapted to the new environmental conditions. Understanding the genetic composition and age of refugia is thus crucial for predicting any migration response.
Here, we genotype 194 larch individuals from an similar to 1.8 km(2)area in northcentral Siberia on the southern Taimyr Peninsula by applying an assay of 16 nuclear microsatellite markers. For estimating the age of clonal individuals, we counted tree rings at sections along branches to establish a lateral growth rate that was then combined with geographic distance.
Findings reveal that the predominant reproduction type is clonal (58.76%) by short distance spreading of ramets. One outlier of clones 1 km apart could have been dispersed by reindeer. In clonal groups and within individuals, we find that somatic mutations accumulate with geographic distance. Clonal groups of two or more individuals are observed. Clonal age estimates regularly suggest individuals as old as 2,200 years, which coincides with a major environmental change that forced a treeline retreat in the region.
We conclude that individuals with clonal growth mode were naturally selected as it lowers the likely risk of extinction under a harsh environment. We discuss this legacy from the past that might now be a maladaptation and hinder expansion under currently strongly increasing temperatures.