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Institut
Fast Holocene slip and localized strain along the Liquiñe-Ofqui strike-slip fault system, Chile
(2021)
In active tectonic settings dominated by strike-slip kinematics, slip partitioning across subparallel faults is a common feature; therefore, assessing the degree of partitioning and strain localization is paramount for seismic hazard assessments. Here, we estimate a slip rate of 18.8 +/- 2.0 mm/year over the past 9.0 +/- 0.1 ka for a single strand of the Liquirie-Ofqui Fault System, which straddles the Main Cordillera in Southern Chile. This Holocene rate accounts for similar to 82% of the trench-parallel component of oblique plate convergence and is similar to million-year estimates integrated over the entire fault system. Our results imply that strain localizes on a single fault at millennial time scale but over longer time scales strain localization is not sustained. The fast millennial slip rate in the absence of historical Mw> 6.5 earthquakes along the Liquine-Ofqui Fault System implies either a component of aseismic slip or Mw similar to 7 earthquakes involving multi-trace ruptures and > 150-year repeat times. Our results have implications for the understanding of strike-slip fault system dynamics within volcanic arcs and seismic hazard assessments.
Much progress has been made in estimating recurrence intervals of great and giant subduction earthquakes using terrestrial, lacustrine, and marine paleoseismic archives. Recent detailed records suggest these earthquakes may have variable recurrence periods and magnitudes forming supercycles. Understanding seismic supercycles requires long paleoseismic archives that record timing and magnitude of such events. Turbidite paleoseismic archives may potentially extend past earthquake records to the Pleistocene and can thus complement commonly shorter-term terrestrial archives. However, in order to unambiguously establish recurring seismicity as a trigger mechanism for turbidity currents, synchronous deposition of turbidites in widely spaced, isolated depocenters has to be ascertained. Furthermore, characteristics that predispose a seismically active continental margin to turbidite paleoseismology and the correct sample site selection have to be taken into account.
Here we analyze 8 marine sediment cores along 950 km of the Chile margin to test for the feasibility of compiling detailed and continuous paleoseismic records based on turbidites. Our results suggest that the deposition of areally widespread, synchronous turbidites triggered by seismicity is largely controlled by sediment supply and, hence, the climatic and geomorphic conditions of the adjacent subaerial setting. The feasibility of compiling a turbidite paleoseismic record depends on the delicate balance between sufficient sediment supply providing material to fail frequently during seismic shaking and sufficiently low sedimentation rates to allow for coeval accumulation of planktonic foraminifera for high-resolution radiocarbon dating.
We conclude that offshore northern central Chile (29-32.5 degrees S) Holocene turbidite paleoseismology is not feasible, because sediment supply from the semi-arid mainland is low and almost no Holocene turbidity-current deposits are found in the cores. In contrast, in the humid region between 36 and 38 degrees S frequent Holocene turbidite deposition may generally correspond to paleoseismic events. However, high terrigenous sedimentation rates prevent high-resolution radiocarbon dating. The climatic transition region between 32.5 and 36 degrees S appears to be best suited for turbidite paleoseismology. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Newly acquired high-resolution bathymetric data (with 5 m and 2 m grid sizes) from the continental shelf off Concepcion (Chile), in combination with seismic reflection profiles, reveal a distinctly different evolution for the Biobio submarine canyon compared to that of one of its tributaries. Both canyons are incised into the shelf of the active margin. Whereas the inner shelf appears to be mantled with unconsolidated sediment, the outer shelf shows the influence of strong bottom currents that form drifts of loose sediment and transport -material into the Biobio submarine canyon and onto the continental slope.
The main stem of the Biobio Canyon is connected to the mouth of the Biobio River and currently provides a conduit for terrestrial sediment from the continental shelf to the deep seafloor. In contrast, the head of its tributary closest to the coast is located similar to 24 km offshore of the present-day coastline at 120 m water depth, and it is subject to passive sedimentation. However, canyon activity within the study area is interpreted to be controlled not only by the direct input of fluvial sediments into the canyon head facilitated by the river-mouth to canyon-head connection, but also by input from southward-directed bottom currents and possibly longshore drift. In addition, about 24 km offshore of the present-day coastline, the main stem of the Biobio Canyon has steep canyon walls next to sites of active tectonic deformation that are prone to wall failure. Mass-failure events may also foster turbidity currents and contribute to canyon feeding. In contrast, the tributary has less steep canyon walls with limited evidence of canyon-wall failure and is located down-system of bottom currents from the Biobio Canyon. It consequently receives neither fluvial nor longshore sediments. Therefore, the canyon's connectivity to fluvial or longshore sediment delivery pathways is affected by the distance of the canyon head from the coastline and the orientation of the canyon axis relative to the direction of bottom currents.
The ability of a submarine canyon to act as an active conduit for large quantities of terrestrial sediment toward the deep sea during sea-level highstands may be controlled by several different conditions simultaneously. These include bottom current direction, structural deformation of the seafloor affecting canyon location and orientation as well as canyon-wall failure, shelf gradient and associated distance from the canyon head to the coast, and fluvial networks. The complex interplay between these factors may vary even within an individual canyon system, resulting in distinct levels of canyon activity on a regional scale.
Major earthquakes ( M > 8) have repeatedly ruptured the Nazca-South America plate interface of south-central Chile involving meter scale land-level changes. Earthquake recurrence intervals, however, extending beyond limited historical records are virtually unknown, but would provide crucial data on the tectonic behavior of forearcs. We analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of Holocene earthquakes on Santa Maria Island (SMI; 37 degrees S), located 20 km off the Chilean coast and approximately 70 km east of the trench. SMI hosts a minimum of 21 uplifted beach berms, of which a subset were dated to calculate a mean uplift rate of 2.3 +/- 0.2 m/ky and a tilting rate of 0.022 +/- 0.002 degrees/ky. The inferred recurrence interval of strandline-forming earthquakes is similar to 180 years. Combining coseismic uplift and aseismic subsidence during an earthquake cycle, the net gain in strandline elevation in this environment is similar to 0.4 m per event
Geomorphic strain markers accumulating the effects of many earthquake cycles help to constrain the mechanical behaviour of continental rift systems as well as the related seismic hazards. In the Corinth Rift (Greece), the unique record of onshore and offshore markers of Pleistocene similar to 100-ka climate cycles provides an outstanding possibility to constrain rift mechanics over a range of timescales. Here we use high-resolution topography to analyse the 3D geometry of a sequence of Pleistocene emerged marine terraces associated with flexural rift-flank uplift. We integrate this onshore dataset with offshore seismic data to provide a synoptic view of the flexural deformation across the rift. This allows us to derive an average slip rate of 4.5-9.0 mm.yr(-1) on the master fault over the past similar to 610 ka and an uplift/ subsidence ratio of 1:1.1-2.4. We reproduce the observed flexure patterns, using 3 and 5-layered lithospheric scale finite element models. Modelling results imply that the observed elastic flexure is produced by coseismic slip along 40-60 degrees planar normal faults in the elastic upper crust, followed by postseismic viscous relaxation occurring within the basal lower crust or upper mantle. We suggest that such a mechanism may typify rapid localised extension of continental lithosphere.
The Gofa Province and the Chew Bahir Basin of southern Ethiopia constitute tectonically active regions, where the Southern Main Ethiopian Rift converges with the Northern Kenya Rift through a wide zone of extensional deformation with several north to northeast-trending, left-stepping en-e & PRIME;chelon basins. This sector of the Southern Main Ethiopian Rift is characterized by a semi-arid climate and a largely uniform lithology, and thus provides ideal conditions for studying the different parameters that define the tectonic and geomorphic features of this complex kinematic transfer zone. In this study, the degree of tectonic activity, spatiotemporal variations in extension, and the nature of kinematic linkage between different fault systems of the transfer zone are constrained by detailed quantitative geomorphic analysis of river catchments and focused field work. We analyzed fluvial and landscape morphometric characteristics in combination with structural, seismicity, and climatic data to better evaluate the tectono-geomorphic history of this transfer zone. Our data reveal significant north-south variations in the degree of extension from the Sawula Basin in the north (mature) to the Chew Bahir Basin in the south (juvenile). First, normalized channel-steepness indices and the spatial arrangement of knickpoints in footwall-draining streams suggest a gradual, southward shift in extensional deformation and recent tectonic activity. Second, based on 1-k(m) radius local relief and mean-hillslope maximum values that are consistent with ksn anomalies, we confirm strain localization within zones of fault interaction. Third, morphometric indices such as hypsometry, basin asymmetry factor, and valley floor width to valley height ratio also indicate a north to south gradient in tectonic activity, highlighting the importance of such a wide transfer zone with diffuse extension linking different rift segments during the break-up of continental crust.
We observed vertically displaced coastal and river markers after the 27 February 2010 Chilean earthquake [moment magnitude (Mw) 8.8]. Land-level changes range between 2.5 and -1 meters, evident along an ~500-kilometers- long segment identified here as the maximum length of coseismic rupture. A hinge line located 120 kilometers from the trench separates uplifted areas, to the west, from subsided regions. A simple elastic dislocation model fits these observations well; model parameters give a similar seismic moment to seismological estimates and suggest that most of the plate convergence since the 1835 great earthquake was elastically stored and then released during this event.
Tectonically active coasts are dynamic environments characterized by the presence of multiple marine terraces formed by the combined effects of wave erosion, tectonic uplift, and sea-level oscillations at glacialcycle timescales. Well-preserved erosional terraces from the last interglacial sea-level highstand are ideal marker horizons for reconstructing past sea-level positions and calculating vertical displacement rates. We carried out an almost continuous mapping of the last interglacial marine terrace along similar to 5000 km of the western coast of South America between 1 degrees N and 40 degrees S. We used quantitatively replicable approaches constrained by published terrace-age estimates to ultimately compare elevations and patterns of uplifted terraces with tectonic and climatic parameters in order to evaluate the controlling mechanisms for the formation and preservation of marine terraces and crustal deformation. Uncertainties were estimated on the basis of measurement errors and the distance from referencing points. Overall, our results indicate a median elevation of 30.1 m, which would imply a median uplift rate of 0.22 m kyr(-1) averaged over the past similar to 125 kyr. The patterns of terrace elevation and uplift rate display high-amplitude (similar to 100-200 m) and long-wavelength (similar to 10(2) km) structures at the Manta Peninsula (Ecuador), the San Juan de Marcona area (central Peru), and the Arauco Peninsula (south-central Chile). Medium-wavelength structures occur at the Mejillones Peninsula and Topocalma in Chile, while short-wavelength (< 10 km) features are for instance located near Los Vilos, Valparaiso, and Carranza, Chile. We interpret the long-wavelength deformation to be controlled by deep-seated processes at the plate interface such as the subduction of major bathymetric anomalies like the Nazca and Carnegie ridges. In contrast, short-wavelength deformation may be primarily controlled by sources in the upper plate such as crustal faulting, which, however, may also be associated with the subduction of topographically less pronounced bathymetric anomalies. Latitudinal differences in climate additionally control the formation and preservation of marine terraces. Based on our synopsis we propose that increasing wave height and tidal range result in enhanced erosion and morphologically well-defined marine terraces in south-central Chile. Our study emphasizes the importance of using systematic measurements and uniform, quantitative methodologies to characterize and correctly interpret marine terraces at regional scales, especially if they are used to unravel the tectonic and climatic forcing mechanisms of their formation. This database is an integral part of the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS), published online at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4309748 (Freisleben et al., 2020).
The 'wet' early to mid-Holocene of tropical Africa, with its enhanced monsoon, ended with an abrupt shift toward drier conditions and was ultimately replaced by a drier climate that has persisted until the present day. The forcing mechanisms, the timing, and the spatial extent of this major climatic transition are not well understood and remain the subject of ongoing research. We have used a detailed palaeo-shoreline record from Lake Turkana (Kenya) to decipher and characterise this marked climatic transition in East Africa. We present a high-precision survey of well-preserved palaeo-shorelines, new radiocarbon ages from shoreline deposits, and oxygen-isotope measurements on freshwater mollusk shells to elucidate the Holocene moisture history from former lake water-levels in this climatically sensitive region. In combination with previously published data our study shows that during the early Holocene the water-level in Lake Turkana was high and the lake overflowed temporarily into the White Nile drainage system. During the mid-Holocene (similar to 5270 +/- 300 cal. yr BP), however, the lake water-level fell by similar to 50 m, coeval with major episodes of aridity on the African continent. A comparison between palaeo-hydrological and archaeological data from the Turkana Basin suggests that the mid-Holocene climatic transition was associated with fundamental changes in prehistoric cultures, highlighting the significance of natural climate variability and associated periods of protracted drought as major environmental stress factors affecting human occupation in the East African Rift System. (
The African Humid Period (AHP) between similar to 15 and 5.5 cal. kyr BP caused major environmental change in East Africa, including filling of the Suguta Valley in the northern Kenya Rift with an extensive (similar to 2150 km(2)), deep (similar to 300 m) lake. Interfingering fluvio-lacustrine deposits of the Baragoi paleo-delta provide insights into the lake-level history and how erosion rates changed during this time, as revealed by delta-volume estimates and the concentration of cosmogenic Be-10 in fluvial sand. Erosion rates derived from delta-volume estimates range from 0.019 to 0.03 mm yr(-1). Be-10-derived paleo-erosion rates at similar to 11.8 cal. kyr BP ranged from 0.035 to 0.086 mm yr(-1), and were 2.7 to 6.6 times faster than at present. In contrast, at similar to 8.7 cal. kyr BP, erosion rates were only 1.8 times faster than at present. Because Be-10-derived erosion rates integrate over several millennia; we modeled the erosion-rate history that best explains the 10Be data using established non-linear equations that describe in situ cosmogenic isotope production and decay. Two models with different temporal constraints (15-6.7 and 12-6.7 kyr) suggest erosion rates that were 25 to 300 times higher than the initial erosion rate (pre-delta formation). That pulse of high erosion rates was short (similar to 4 kyr or less) and must have been followed by a rapid decrease in rates while climate remained humid to reach the modern Be-10-based erosion rate of,similar to 0.013 mm yr(-1). Our simulations also flag the two highest Be-10-derived erosion rates at 11.8 kyr BP related to nonuniform catchment erosion. These changes in erosion rates and processes during the AHP may reflect a strong increase in precipitation, runoff, and erosivity at the arid-to-humid transition either at 15 or similar to 12 cal. kyr BP, before the landscape stabilized again, possibly due to increased soil production and denser vegetation.
The subduction of bathymetric anomalies at convergent margins can profoundly affect subduction dynamics, magmatism, and the structural and geomorphic evolution of the overriding plate. The Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) is located east of the Chile Triple Junction at similar to 47 degrees S, where the Chile Rise spreading center collides with South America. This region is characterized by an abrupt increase in summit elevations and relief that has been controversially debated in the context of geodynamic versus glacial erosion effects on topography. Here we present geomorphic, thermochronological, and structural data that document neotectonic activity along hitherto unrecognized faults along the flanks of the NPI. New apatite (U-Th)/He bedrock cooling ages suggest faulting since 2-3 Ma. We infer the northward translation of an similar to 140 km long fore-arc sliver-the NPI block-results from enhanced partitioning of oblique plate convergence due to the closely spaced collision of three successive segments of the Chile Rise. In this model, greater uplift occurs in the hanging wall of the Exploradores thrust at the northern leading edge of the NPI block, whereas the Cachet and Liquine-Ofqui dextral faults decouple the NPI block along its eastern and western flanks, respectively. Localized extension possibly occurs at its southern trailing edge along normal faults associated with margin-parallel extension, tectonic subsidence, and lower elevations along the Andean crest line. Our neotectonic model provides a novel explanation for the abrupt topographic variations inland of the Chile Triple Junction and emphasizes the fundamental effects of local tectonics on exhumation and topographic patterns in this glaciated landscape.
The architecture of coastal sequences in tectonically-active regions results mostly from a combination of sea-level and land-level changes. The objective of this study is to unravel these signals by combining sequence stratigraphy and sedimentology of near-shore sedimentary sequences in wave-built terraces. We focus on Santa Maria Island at the south-central Chile margin, which hosts excellent exposures of coastal sediments from Marine Isotope Stage 3. A novel method based on statistical analysis of grain-size distributions coupled with fades descriptions provided a detailed account of transgressive-regressive cycles. Radiocarbon ages from paleosols constrain the chronology between >53 and similar to 31 cal ka BP. Because the influence of glaciations can be neglected, we calculated relative sea-level curves by tying the onset of deposition on a bedrock abrasion platform to a global sea-level curve. The observed depositional cycles match those predicted for uplift rates between 1.2 and 1.8 m/ka. The studied sedimentary units represent depositional cycles that resulted in reoccupation events of an existing marine terrace. Our study demonstrates wave-built marine terrace deposits along clastic shorelines in temperate regions can be used to distinguish between tectonic uplift and climate-induced sea-level changes.
The segmentation of major fault systems in subduction zones controls earthquake magnitude and location, but the causes for the existence of segment boundaries and the relationships between long-term deformation and the extent of earthquake rupture, are poorly understood. We compare permanent and seismic-cycle deformation patterns along the rupture zone of the 2010 Maule earthquake (M8.8), which ruptured 500 km of the Chile subduction margin. We analyzed the morphology of MIS-5 marine terraces using LiDAR topography and established their chronology and coeval origin with twelve luminescence ages, stratigraphy and geomorphic correlation, obtaining a virtually continuous distribution of uplift rates along the entire rupture zone. The mean uplift rate for these terraces is 0.5 m/ka. This value is exceeded in three areas, which have experienced rapid emergence of up to 1.6 m/ka; they are located at the northern, central, and southern sectors of the rupture zone, referred to as Topocalma, Carranza and Arauco, respectively. The three sectors correlate with boundaries of eight great earthquakes dating back to 1730. The Topocalma and Arauco sectors, located at the boundaries of the 2010 rupture, consist of broad zones of crustal warping with wavelengths of 60 and 90 km, respectively. These two regions coincide with the axes of oroclinal bending of the entire Andean margin and correlate with changes in curvature of the plate interface. Rapid uplift at Carranza, in turn, is of shorter wavelength and associated with footwall flexure of three crustal-scale normal faults. The uplift rate at Carranza is inversely correlated with plate coupling as well as with coseismic slip, suggesting permanent deformation may accumulate interseismically. We propose that the zones of upwarping at Arauco and Topocalma reflect changes in frictional properties of the megathrust resulting in barriers to the propagation of great earthquakes. Slip during the 1960 (M9.5) and 2010 events overlapped with the similar to 90-km-long zone of rapid uplift at Arauco; similarly, slip in 2010 and 1906 extended across the similar to 60-km-long section of the megathrust at Topocalma, but this area was completely breached by the 1730 (M similar to 9) event, which propagated southward until Carranza. Both Arauco and Topocalma show evidence of sustained rapid uplift since at least the middle Pleistocene. These two sectors might thus constitute discrete seismotectonic boundaries restraining most, but not all great earthquake ruptures. Based on our observations, such barriers might be breached during multi-segment super-cycle events. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The first step towards assessing hazards in seismically active regions involves mapping capable faults and estimating their recurrence times. While the mapping of active faults is commonly based on distinct geologic and geomorphic features evident at the surface, mapping blind seismogenic faults is complicated by the absence of on-fault diagnostic features. Here we investigated the Pichilemu Fault in coastal Chile, unknown until it generated a Mw 7.0 earthquake in 2010. The lack of evident surface faulting suggests activity along a partly-hidden blind fault. We used off-fault deformed marine terraces to estimate a fault-slip rate of 0.52 ± 0.04 m/ka, which, when integrated with satellite geodesy suggests a 2.12 ± 0.2 ka recurrence time for Mw~7.0 normal-faulting earthquakes. We propose that extension in the Pichilemu region is associated with stress changes during megathrust earthquakes and accommodated by sporadic slip during upper-plate earthquakes, which has implications for assessing the seismic potential of cryptic faults along convergent margins and elsewhere.
The first step towards assessing hazards in seismically active regions involves mapping capable faults and estimating their recurrence times. While the mapping of active faults is commonly based on distinct geologic and geomorphic features evident at the surface, mapping blind seismogenic faults is complicated by the absence of on-fault diagnostic features. Here we investigated the Pichilemu Fault in coastal Chile, unknown until it generated a Mw 7.0 earthquake in 2010. The lack of evident surface faulting suggests activity along a partly-hidden blind fault. We used off-fault deformed marine terraces to estimate a fault-slip rate of 0.52 ± 0.04 m/ka, which, when integrated with satellite geodesy suggests a 2.12 ± 0.2 ka recurrence time for Mw~7.0 normal-faulting earthquakes. We propose that extension in the Pichilemu region is associated with stress changes during megathrust earthquakes and accommodated by sporadic slip during upper-plate earthquakes, which has implications for assessing the seismic potential of cryptic faults along convergent margins and elsewhere.
The morphology of marine and lacustrine terraces has been largely used to measure past sea- and lake-level positions and estimate vertical deformation in a wealth of studies focused on climate and tectonic processes. To obtain accurate morphometric assessments of terrace morphology we present TerraceM-2, an improved version of our MatlabR (R) graphic-user interface that provides new methodologies for morphometric analyses as well as landscape evolution and fault-dislocation modeling. The new version includes novel routines to map the elevation and spatial distribution of terraces, to model their formation and evolution, and to estimate fault-slip rates from terrace deformation patterns. TerraceM-2 has significantly improves its processing speed and mapping capabilities, and includes separate functions for developing customized workflows beyond the graphic-user interface. We illustrate these new mapping and modeling capabilities with three examples: mapping lacustrine shorelines in the Dead Sea to estimate deformation across the Dead Sea Fault, landscape evolution modeling to estimate a history of uplift rates in southern Peru, and dislocation modeling of deformed marine terraces in California. These examples also illustrate the need to use topographic data of different resolutions. The new modeling and mapping routines of TerraceM-2 highlight the advantages of an integrated joint mapping and modeling approach to improve the efficiency and precision of coastal terrace metrics in both marine and lacustrine environments.
High-resolution topographic data greatly facilitate the remote identification of geomorphic features, furnishing valuable information concerning surface processes and characterization of reference markers for quantifying tectonic deformation. Marine terraces have been used as long baseline geodetic markers of relative past sea-level positions, reflecting the interplay between vertical crustal movements and sea-level oscillations. Uplift rates may be determined from the terrace age and the elevation of its shoreline angle, a geomorphic feature that can be correlated with past sea-levels positions. A precise definition of the shoreline angle in time and space is essential to obtain reliable uplift rates with coherent spatial correlation. To improve our ability to rapidly assess and map shoreline angles at regional and local scales, we have developed TerraceM, a MATLAB (R) graphical user interface that allows the shoreline angle and its associated error to be estimated using high-resolution topography. TerraceM uses topographic swath profiles oriented orthogonally to the terrace riser. Four functions are included to analyze the swath profiles and extract the shoreline angle, from both staircase sequences of multiple terraces and rough coasts characterized by eroded remnants of emerged terrace surfaces. The former are measured by outlining the paleocliffs and paieo-platforms and finding their intersection by extrapolating linear regressions, whereas the latter are assessed by automatically detecting peaks of sea-stack tops and back-projecting them to the modern sea cliff. In the absence of rigorous absolute age determinations of marine terraces, their geomorphic age may be estimated using previously published diffusion models. Postprocessing functions are included to obtain first-order statistics of shoreline-angle elevations and their spatial distribution. TerraceM has the ability to process series of profiles from several sites in an efficient and structured workflow. Results may be exported in Google Earth and ESRI shapefile formats. The precision and accuracy of the method have been estimated from a case study at Santa Cruz, California, by comparing TerraceM results with published field measurements. The repeatability was evaluated using multiple measurements made by inexperienced users. TerraceM will improve the efficiency and precision of estimating shoreline-angle elevations in wave-cut terraces in both marine and lacustrine environments.
Most of the deformation associated with the seismic cycle in subduction zones occurs offshore and has been therefore difficult to quantify with direct observations at millennial timescales. Here we study millennial deformation associated with an active splay-fault system in the Arauco Bay area off south central Chile. We describe hitherto unrecognized drowned shorelines using high-resolution multibeam bathymetry, geomorphic, sedimentologic, and paleontologic observations and quantify uplift rates using a Landscape Evolution Model. Along a margin-normal profile, uplift rates are 1.3m/ka near the edge of the continental shelf, 1.5m/ka at the emerged Santa Maria Island, -0.1m/ka at the center of the Arauco Bay, and 0.3m/ka in the mainland. The bathymetry images a complex pattern of folds and faults representing the surface expression of the crustal-scale Santa Maria splay-fault system. We modeled surface deformation using two different structural scenarios: deep-reaching normal faults and deep-reaching reverse faults with shallow extensional structures. Our preferred model comprises a blind reverse fault extending from 3km depth down to the plate interface at 16km that slips at a rate between 3.0 and 3.7m/ka. If all the splay-fault slip occurs during every great megathrust earthquake, with a recurrence of similar to 150-200years, the fault would slip similar to 0.5m per event, equivalent to a magnitude similar to 6.4 earthquake. However, if the splay-fault slips only with a megathrust earthquake every similar to 1000years, the fault would slip similar to 3.7m per event, equivalent to a magnitude similar to 7.5 earthquake.