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Institute
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (298) (remove)
Presentation and Analysis of a Worldwide Database of Earthquake-Induced Landslide Inventories
(2017)
Earthquake-induced landslide (EQIL) inventories are essential tools to extend our knowledge of the relationship between earthquakes and the landslides they can trigger. Regrettably, such inventories are difficult to generate and therefore scarce, and the available ones differ in terms of their quality and level of completeness. Moreover, access to existing EQIL inventories is currently difficult because there is no centralized database. To address these issues, we compiled EQIL inventories from around the globe based on an extensive literature study. The database contains information on 363 landslide-triggering earthquakes and includes 66 digital landslide inventories. To make these data openly available, we created a repository to host the digital inventories that we have permission to redistribute through the U.S. Geological Survey ScienceBase platform. It can grow over time as more authors contribute their inventories. We analyze the distribution of EQIL events by time period and location, more specifically breaking down the distribution by continent, country, and mountain region. Additionally, we analyze frequency distributions of EQIL characteristics, such as the approximate area affected by landslides, total number of landslides, maximum distance from fault rupture zone, and distance from epicenter when the fault plane location is unknown. For the available digital EQIL inventories, we examine the underlying characteristics of landslide size, topographic slope, roughness, local relief, distance to streams, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and Modified Mercalli Intensity. Also, we present an evaluation system to help users assess the suitability of the available inventories for different types of EQIL studies and model development.
Anthropogenically amplified erosion leads to increased fine-grained sediment input into the fluvial system in the 15.000 km2 Kharaa River catchment in northern Mongolia and constitutes a major stressing factor for the aquatic ecosystem. This study uniquely combines the application of intensive monitoring, source fingerprinting and catchment modelling techniques to allow for the comparison of the credibility and accuracy of each single method. High-resolution discharge data were used in combination with daily suspended solid measurements to calculate the suspended sediment budget and compare it with estimations of the sediment budget model SedNet. The comparison of both techniques showed that the development of an overall sediment budget with SedNet was possible, yielding results in the same order of magnitude (20.3 kt a- 1 and 16.2 kt a- 1).
Radionuclide sediment tracing, using Be-7, Cs-137 and Pb-210 was applied to differentiate sediment sources for particles < 10μm from hillslope and riverbank erosion and showed that riverbank erosion generates 74.5% of the suspended sediment load, whereas surface erosion contributes 21.7% and gully erosion only 3.8%. The contribution of the single subcatchments of the Kharaa to the suspended sediment load was assessed based on their variation in geochemical composition (e.g. in Ti, Sn, Mo, Mn, As, Sr, B, U, Ca and Sb). These variations were used for sediment source discrimination with geochemical composite fingerprints based on Genetic Algorithm driven Discriminant Function Analysis, the Kruskal–Wallis H-test and Principal Component Analysis. The contributions of the individual sub-catchment varied from 6.4% to 36.2%, generally showing higher contributions from the sub-catchments in the middle, rather than the upstream portions of the study area.
The results indicate that river bank erosion generated by existing grazing practices of livestock is the main cause for elevated fine sediment input. Actions towards the protection of the headwaters and the stabilization of the river banks within the middle reaches were identified as the highest priority. Deforestation and by lodging and forest fires should be prevented to avoid increased hillslope erosion in the mountainous areas. Mining activities are of minor importance for the overall catchment sediment load but can constitute locally important point sources for particular heavy metals in the fluvial system.
Competing hypotheses suggest that Himalayan topography is sustained and the plate convergence is accommodated either solely along the basal decollement, the Main Himalayan thrust (MHT), or more broadly, across multiple thrust faults. In the past, structural, geomorphic, and geodetic data of the Nepalese Himalaya have been used to constrain the geometry of the MHT and its shallow frontal thrust fault, known as Main Frontal thrust (MFT). The MHT flattens at depth and connects to a hinterland mid-crustal, steeper thrust ramp, located similar to 100 km north of the deformation front. There, the present-day convergence across the Himalaya is mostly accommodated by slip along the MFT. Despite a general agreement that in Nepal most of the shortening is accommodated along the MHT, some researchers have suggested the occurrence of persistent out-of-sequence shortening on interior faults near the Main Central thrust (MCT). Along the northwest Himalaya, in contrast, some of these characteristics of central Nepal are missing, suggesting along-strike variation of wedge deformation and MHT fault geometry. Here we present new field observations and seven zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) cooling ages combined with existing low-temperature data sets. In agreement with our previous findings, we suggest that the transect of cooling age patterns across the frontal Dhauladhar Range reveals that the Main Boundary thrust (MBT) is a primary fault, which has uplifted and sustained this spectacular mountain front since at least the late Miocene. Our results suggest that the MBT forms an similar to 40-km-long fault ramp before it soles into the MHT, and motion along it has exhumed rocks from depth of similar to 8-10 km. New three-dimensional thermokinematic modeling (using Pecube finite-element code) reveals that the observed ZHe and apatite fission track cooling ages can only be explained by sustained mean MBT slip rates between similar to 2.6 and 3.5 mm a(-1) since at least 8 Ma, which corresponds to a horizontal shortening rate of similar to 1.7-2.4 mm a(-1). We propose that the MBT is active today, despite a lack of definitive field or seismogenic evidence, and continues to accommodate crustal shorting by out-of-sequence faulting. Assuming that present-day geodetic shorting rates (similar to 14 +/- 2 mm a(-1)) across the northwest Himalaya have been sustained over geologic time scales, this implies that the MBT accommodated similar to 15% of the total Himalayan convergence since its onset. Furthermore, our modeling results imply that the MHT is missing a hinterland mid-crustal ramp further north.
In 2002, a severe flood caused financial losses of EUR 11.6 billion in Germany and triggered many changes in flood risk management. This chapter focuses on flood insurance, which is a voluntary supplementary insurance in Germany: it is explored how flood insurance has contributed to enhance resilience of flood-prone residents. The analyses are based on empirical data collected by post-event surveys in the federal states of Saxony and Bavaria and refer to the three pillars upon which the concept of flood resilience usually builds in the natural hazards context: recovery, adaptive capacity and resistance. Overall, the penetration of flood insurance has increased since 2002 and there is strong empirical evidence that losses of insured residents are more often and better compensated than those of uninsured despite the provision of governmental financial disaster assistance after big floods. This facilitation of recovery is, however, not the only contribution to flood resilience. Insured residents tend to invest more in further flood mitigation measures at their properties than uninsured. Obviously, flood insurance is embedded in a complex safety strategy of property owners that needs more investigation in order to be addressed more effectively in risk communication and integrated risk management strategies.
Temporal and spatial stability of the vegetation climate relationship is a basic ecological assumption for pollen-based quantitative inferences of past climate change and for predicting future vegetation. We explore this assumption for the Holocene in eastern continental Asia (China, Mongolia). Boosted regression trees (BRT) between fossil pollen taxa percentages (Abies, Artemisia, Betula, Chenopodiaceae, Cyperaceae, Ephedra, Picea, Pinus, Poaceae and Quercus) and climate model outputs of mean annual precipitation (P-ann) and mean temperature of the warmest month (Mt(wa)) for 9 and 6 ka (ka = thousand years before present) were set up and results compared to those obtained from relating modern pollen to modern climate. Overall, our results reveal only slight temporal differences in the pollen climate relationships. Our analyses suggest that the importance of P-ann compared with Mt(wa) for taxa distribution is higher today than it was at 6 ka and 9 ka. In particular, the relevance of P-ann for Picea and Pinus increases and has become the main determinant. This change in the climate tree pollen relationship parallels a widespread tree pollen decrease in north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We assume that this is at least partly related to vegetation climate disequilibrium originating from human impact. Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration may have permitted the expansion of moisture-loving herb taxa (Cyperaceae and Poaceae) during the late Holocene into arid/semi-arid areas. We furthermore find that the pollen climate relationship between north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau is generally similar, but that regional differences are larger than temporal differences. In summary, vegetation climate relationships in China are generally stable in space and time, and pollen-based climate reconstructions can be applied to the Holocene. Regional differences imply the calibration-set should be restricted spatially.
Water infiltration in soil is not only affected by the inherent heterogeneities of soil, but even more by the interaction with plant roots and their water uptake. Neutron tomography is a unique non-invasive 3D tool to visualize plant root systems together with the soil water distribution in situ. So far, acquisition times in the range of hours have been the major limitation for imaging 3D water dynamics. Implementing an alternative acquisition procedure we boosted the speed of acquisition capturing an entire tomogram within 10 s. This allows, for the first time, tracking of a water front ascending in a rooted soil column upon infiltration of deuterated water time-resolved in 3D. Image quality and resolution could be sustained to a level allowing for capturing the root system in high detail. Good signal-to-noise ratio and contrast were the key to visualize dynamic changes in water content and to localize the root uptake. We demonstrated the ability of ultra-fast tomography to quantitatively image quick changes of water content in the rhizosphere and outlined the value of such imaging data for 3D water uptake modelling. The presented method paves the way for time-resolved studies of various 3D flow and transport phenomena in porous systems.
Fluvial fill terraces in intermontane basins are valuable geomorphic archives that can record tectonically and/or climatically driven changes of the Earth-surface process system. However, often the preservation of fill terrace sequences is incomplete and/or they may form far away from their source areas, complicating the identification of causal links between forcing mechanisms and landscape response, especially over multi-millennial timescales. The intermontane Toro Basin in the southern Central Andes exhibits at least five generations of fluvial terraces that have been sculpted into several-hundred-meter-thick Quaternary valley-fill conglomerates. New surface-exposure dating using nine cosmogenic Be-10 depth profiles reveals the successive abandonment of these terraces with a 100 kyr cyclicity between 75 +/- 7 and 487 +/- 34 ka. Depositional ages of the conglomerates, determined by four Al-26/Be-10 burial samples and U-Pb zircon ages of three intercalated volcanic ash beds, range from 18 +/- 141 to 936 +/- 170 ka, indicating that there were multiple cut-and-fill episodes. Although the initial onset of aggradation at similar to 1 Ma and the overall net incision since ca. 500 ka can be linked to tectonic processes at the narrow basin outlet, the superimposed 100 kyr cycles of aggradation and incision are best explained by eccentricity-driven climate change. Within these cycles, the onset of river incision can be correlated with global cold periods and enhanced humid phases recorded in paleoclimate archives on the adjacent Bolivian Altiplano, whereas deposition occurred mainly during more arid phases on the Altiplano and global interglacial periods. We suggest that enhanced runoff during global cold phases - due to increased regional precipitation rates, reduced evapotranspiration, or both - resulted in an increased sediment-transport capacity in the Toro Basin, which outweighed any possible increases in upstream sediment supply and thus triggered incision. Compared with two nearby basins that record precessional (21-kyr) and long-eccentricity (400-kyr) forcing within sedimentary and geomorphic archives, the recorded cyclicity scales with the square of the drainage basin length. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Winter precipitation forecast in the European and mediterranean regions using cluster analysis
(2017)
The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.
During the second phase of the Alpine Fault, Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP) in the Whataroa River, South Westland, New Zealand, bedrock was encountered in the DFDP-2B borehole from 238.5–893.2 m Measured Depth (MD). Continuous sampling and meso- to microscale characterisation of whole rock cuttings established that, in sequence, the borehole sampled amphibolite facies, Torlesse Composite Terrane-derived schists, protomylonites and mylonites, terminating 200–400 m above an Alpine Fault Principal Slip Zone (PSZ) with a maximum dip of 62°. The most diagnostic structural features of increasing PSZ proximity were the occurrence of shear bands and reduction in mean quartz grain sizes. A change in composition to greater mica:quartz + feldspar, most markedly below c. 700 m MD, is inferred to result from either heterogeneous sampling or a change in lithology related to alteration. Major oxide variations suggest the fault-proximal Alpine Fault alteration zone, as previously defined in DFDP-1 core, was not sampled.
Near-surface geophysical techniques are extensively used in a variety of engineering, environmental, geologic, and hydrologic applications. While many of these applications ask for detailed, quantitative models of selected material properties, geophysical data are increasingly used to estimate such target properties. Typically, this estimation procedure relies on a two-step workflow including (1) the inversion of geophysical data and (2) the petrophysical translation of the inverted parameter models into the target properties. Standard deterministic implementations of such a quantitative interpretation result in a single best-estimate model, often without considering and propagating the uncertainties related to the two steps. We address this problem by using a rather novel, particle-swarm-based global joint strategy for data inversion and by implementing Monte Carlo procedures for petrophysical property estimation. We apply our proposed workflow to crosshole ground-penetrating radar, P-, and S-wave data sets collected at a well-constrained test site for a detailed geotechnical characterization of unconsolidated sands. For joint traveltime inversion, the chosen global approach results in ensembles of acceptable velocity models, which are analyzed to appraise inversion-related uncertainties. Subsequently, the entire ensembles of inverted velocity models are considered to estimate selected petrophysical properties including porosity, bulk density, and elastic moduli via well-established petrophysical relations implemented in a Monte Carlo framework. Our results illustrate the potential benefit of such an advanced interpretation strategy; i.e., the proposed workflow allows to study how uncertainties propagate into the finally estimated property models, while concurrently we are able to study the impact of uncertainties in the used petrophysical relations (e.g., the influence of uncertain, user-specified parameters). We conclude that such statistical approaches for the quantitative interpretation of geophysical data can be easily extended and adapted to other applications and geophysical methods and might be an important step toward increasing the popularity and acceptance of geophysical tools in engineering practice.
Water infiltration in soil is not only affected by the inherent heterogeneities of soil, but even more by the interaction with plant roots and their water uptake. Neutron tomography is a unique non-invasive 3D tool to visualize plant root systems together with the soil water distribution in situ. So far, acquisition times in the range of hours have been the major limitation for imaging 3D water dynamics. Implementing an alternative acquisition procedure we boosted the speed of acquisition capturing an entire tomogram within 10 s. This allows, for the first time, tracking of a water front ascending in a rooted soil column upon infiltration of deuterated water time-resolved in 3D. Image quality and resolution could be sustained to a level allowing for capturing the root system in high detail. Good signal-to-noise ratio and contrast were the key to visualize dynamic changes in water content and to localize the root uptake. We demonstrated the ability of ultra-fast tomography to quantitatively image quick changes of water content in the rhizosphere and outlined the value of such imaging data for 3D water uptake modelling. The presented method paves the way for time-resolved studies of various 3D flow and transport phenomena in porous systems
Water infiltration in soil is not only affected by the inherent heterogeneities of soil, but even more by the interaction with plant roots and their water uptake. Neutron tomography is a unique non-invasive 3D tool to visualize plant root systems together with the soil water distribution in situ. So far, acquisition times in the range of hours have been the major limitation for imaging 3D water dynamics. Implementing an alternative acquisition procedure we boosted the speed of acquisition capturing an entire tomogram within 10 s. This allows, for the first time, tracking of a water front ascending in a rooted soil column upon infiltration of deuterated water time-resolved in 3D. Image quality and resolution could be sustained to a level allowing for capturing the root system in high detail. Good signal-to-noise ratio and contrast were the key to visualize dynamic changes in water content and to localize the root uptake. We demonstrated the ability of ultra-fast tomography to quantitatively image quick changes of water content in the rhizosphere and outlined the value of such imaging data for 3D water uptake modelling. The presented method paves the way for time-resolved studies of various 3D flow and transport phenomena in porous systems.
Erosion processes, aggravated by human activity, have a large impact on the spatial variation of soil and topographic properties. Knowledge of the topography prior to human-induced erosion (paleotopography) in naturally stable landscapes is valuable for identifying vulnerable landscape positions and is required as starting point for erosion modelling exercises. However, developing accurate reconstructions of paleotopography provide a major challenge for geomorphologists. Here, we present a set of paleotopographies for a closed kettle hole catchment in north-east Germany (4 ha), obtained through different reconstruction approaches. Current soil and colluvium thickness, estimated from a dataset of 264 soil descriptions using Ordinary Kriging, were used as input for a mass balance, or were compared with a set of undisturbed soil thicknesses to estimate the amount of erosion. The performance of the different approaches was assessed with cross-validation and the count of mispredicted eroded, depositional or stable landscape positions. The paleotopographic reconstruction approach based on the average thickness of undisturbed soils in the study area showed the best performance. This thickness (1.00 m) is comparable to the average undisturbed soil thickness in the region and in line with global correlations of soil thickness as a function of rainfall and initial CaCO3 content. The performance of the different approaches depended more on mispredictions of landscape position due to the assumption of a spatially constant initial soil depth than on small variations in this depth. To conclude, we mention several methodological and practical points of attention for future topography reconstruction studies, concerning data quality and availability, spatial configuration of data and other processes affecting topography. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Am Abend des 29. Mai 2016 wurde der Ort Braunsbach im Landkreis Schwäbisch-Hall (Baden-Württemberg) von einer Sturzflut getroffen, bei der mehrere Häuser stark beschädigt oder zerstört wurden. Die Sturzflut war eine der Unwetterfolgen, die im Frühsommer 2016 vom Tiefdruckgebiet Elvira ausgelöst wurden. Der vorliegende Bericht ist der zweite Teil einer Doppelveröffentlichung, welche die Ergebnisse zur Untersuchung des Sturzflutereignisses im Rahmen des DFG-Graduiertenkollegs “Naturgefahren und Risiken in einer sich verändernden Welt” (NatRiskChange, GRK 2043/1) der Universität Potsdam präsentiert. Während Teil 1 die meteorologischen und hydrologischen Ereignisse analysiert, fokussiert Teil 2 auf die geomorphologischen Prozesse und die verursachten Gebäudeschäden. Dazu wurden Ursprung und Ausmaß des während des Sturzflutereignisses mobilisierten und in den Ort getragenen Materials untersucht. Des Weiteren wurden zu 96 betroffenen Gebäuden Daten zum Schadensgrad sowie Prozess- und Gebäudecharakteristika aufgenommen und ausgewertet. Die Untersuchungen zeigen, dass bei der Betrachtung von Hochwassergefährdung die Berücksichtigung von Sturzfluten und ihrer speziellen Charakteristika, wie hoher Feststofftransport und sprunghaftes Verhalten insbesondere in bebautem Gelände, wesentlich ist, um effektive Schutzmaßnahmen ergreifen zu können.
The Himalaya has a major influence on global and regional climate, in particular on the Asian monsoon system. The foreland basin of the Himalaya contains a record of tectonics and paleoclimate since the Miocene. Previous work on the evolution of vegetation and climate has focused on the central and western Himalaya, where a shift from C3 to C4 vegetation has been observed at similar to 7 Ma and linked to increased seasonality, but the climatic evolution of the eastern part of the orogen is less well understood. In order to track vegetation as a marker of monsoon intensity and seasonality, we analyzed delta C-13 and 8180 values of soil carbonate and associated delta C-13 values of bulk organic carbon from previously dated sedimentary sections exposing the syn-orogenic detrital Dharamsala and Siwalik Groups in the west, and, for the first time, the Siwalik Group in the east of the Himalayan foreland basin. Sedimentary records span from 20 to 1 Myr in the west (Joginder Nagar, Jawalamukhi, and Haripur Kolar sections) and from 13 to 1 Myr in the east (Kameng section), respectively. The presence of soil carbonate in the west and its absence in the east is a first indication of long-term lateral climatic variation, as soil carbonate requires seasonally arid conditions to develop. delta C-13 values in soil carbonate show a shift from around -10 parts per thousand to -2 parts per thousand at similar to 7 Ma in the west, which is confirmed by delta C-13 analyses on bulk organic carbon that show a shift from around -23 parts per thousand to -19 parts per thousand at the same time. Such a shift in isotopic values is likely to be associated with a change from C3 to C4 vegetation. In contrast, delta C-13 values of bulk organic carbon remain at 23 parts per thousand o in the east. Thus, our data show that the current east -west variation in climate was established at similar to 7 Ma. We propose that the regional change towards a more seasonal climate in the west is linked to a decrease of the influence of the Westerlies, delivering less winter precipitation to the western Himalaya, while the east remained annually humid due to its proximity to the monsoonal moisture source. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Scenario-neutral response surfaces illustrate the sensitivity of a simulated natural system, represented by a specific impact variable, to systematic perturbations of climatic parameters. This type of approach has recently been developed as an alternative to top-down approaches for the assessment of climate change impacts. A major limitation of this approach is the underrepresentation of changes in the temporal structure of the climate input data (i.e., the seasonal and day-to-day variability) since this is not altered by the perturbation. This paper presents a framework that aims to examine this limitation by perturbing both observed and projected climate data time series for a future period, which both serve as input into a hydrological model (the HBV model). The resulting multiple response surfaces are compared at a common domain, the standardized runoff response surface (SRRS). We apply this approach in a case study catchment in Norway to (i) analyze possible changes in mean and extreme runoff and (ii) quantify the influence of changes in the temporal structure represented by 17 different climate input sets using linear mixed-effect models. Results suggest that climate change induced increases in mean and peak flow runoff and only small changes in low flow. They further suggest that the effect of the different temporal structures of the climate input data considerably affects low flows and floods (at least 21% influence), while it is negligible for mean runoff.
Information about the hydrological behaviour of a river basin prior to setting up, calibrating and validating a distributed hydrological model requires extensive datasets that are hardly available for many parts of the world due to insufficient monitoring networks. In this study, the focus was on prevailing spatio-temporal patterns of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) that enabled conclusions to be drawn about the hydrological behaviour and spatial peculiarities of a river basin at rather high spatial resolution. The prevailing spatio-temporal patterns of ET were identified using a principal component analysis of a time series of 644 images of MODIS ET covering the Wami River basin (Tanzania) between the years 2000 and 2013. The time series of the loadings on the principal components were analysed for seasonality and significant long-term trends. The spatial patterns of principal component scores were tested for significant correlation with elevations and slopes, and for differences between different soil texture and land use classes. The results inferred that the temporal and spatial patterns of ET were related to those of preceding rainfalls. At the end of the dry season, high ET was maintained only in areas of shallow groundwater and in cloud forest nature reserves. A region of clear reduction of ET in the long-term was related to massive land use change. The results also confirmed that most soil texture and land use classes differed significantly. Moreover, ET was exceptionally high in natural forests and loam soil, and very low in bushland and sandy-loam soil. Clearly, this approach has shown great potential of publicly available remote sensing data in providing a sound basis for water resources management as well as for distributed hydrological models in data-scarce river basins at lower latitudes.