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Adaptation to flood risk
(2017)
As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.
The importance of cryptic diversity in rotifers is well understood regarding its ecological consequences, but there remains an in depth comprehension of the underlying molecular mechanisms and forces driving speciation. Temperature has been found several times to affect species spatio-temporal distribution and organisms’ performance, but we lack information on the mechanisms that provide thermal tolerance to rotifers. High cryptic diversity was found recently in the freshwater rotifer “Brachionus calyciflorus”, showing that the complex comprises at least four species: B. calyciflorus sensu stricto (s.s.), B. fernandoi, B. dorcas, and B. elevatus. The temporal succession among species which have been observed in sympatry led to the idea that temperature might play a crucial role in species differentiation.
The central aim of this study was to unravel differences in thermal tolerance between species of the former B. calyciflorus species complex by comparing phenotypic and gene expression responses. More specifically, I used the critical maximum temperature as a proxy for inter-species differences in heat-tolerance; this was modeled as a bi-dimensional phenotypic trait taking into consideration the intention and the duration of heat stress. Significant differences on heat-tolerance between species were detected, with B. calyciflorus s.s. being able to tolerate higher temperatures than B. fernandoi.
Based on evidence of within species neutral genetic variation, I further examined adaptive genetic variability within two different mtDNA lineages of the heat tolerant B. calyciflorus s.s. to identify SNPs and genes under selection that might reflect their adaptive history. These analyses did not reveal adaptive genetic variation related to heat, however, they show putatively adaptive genetic variation which may reflect local adaptation. Functional enrichment of putatively positively selected genes revealed signals of adaptation in genes related to “lipid metabolism”, “xenobiotics biodegradation and metabolism” and “sensory system”, comprising candidate genes which can be utilized in studies on local adaptation. An absence of genetically-based differences in thermal adaptation between the two mtDNA lineages, together with our knowledge that B. calyciflorus s.s. can withstand a broad range of temperatures, led to the idea to further investigate shared transcriptomic responses to long-term exposure to high and low temperatures regimes. With this, I identified candidate genes that are involved in the response to temperature imposed stress. Lastly, I used comparative transcriptomics to examine responses to imposed heat-stress in heat-tolerant and heat-sensitive Brachionus species. I found considerably different patterns of gene expression in the two species. Most striking are patterns of expression regarding the heat shock proteins (hsps) between the two species. In the heat-tolerant, B. calyciflorus s.s., significant up-regulation of hsps at low temperatures was indicative of a stress response at the cooler end of the temperature regimes tested here. In contrast, in the heat-sensitive B. fernandoi, hsps generally exhibited up-regulation of these genes along with rising temperatures. Overall, identification of differences in expression of genes suggests suppression of protein biosynthesis to be a mechanism to increase thermal tolerance. Observed patterns in population growth are correlated with the hsp gene expression differences, indicating that this physiological stress response is indeed related to phenotypic life history performance.
On a planetary scale human populations need to adapt to both socio-economic and environmental problems amidst rapid global change. This holds true for coupled human-environment (socio-ecological) systems in rural and urban settings alike. Two examples are drylands and urban coasts. Such socio-ecological systems have a global distribution. Therefore, advancing the knowledge base for identifying socio-ecological adaptation needs with local vulnerability assessments alone is infeasible: The systems cover vast areas, while funding, time, and human resources for local assessments are limited. They are lacking in low an middle-income countries (LICs and MICs) in particular.
But places in a specific socio-ecological system are not only unique and complex – they also exhibit similarities. A global patchwork of local rural drylands vulnerability assessments of human populations to socio-ecological and environmental problems has already been reduced to a limited number of problem structures, which typically cause vulnerability. However, the question arises whether this is also possible in urban socio-ecological systems. The question also arises whether these typologies provide added value in research beyond global change. Finally, the methodology employed for drylands needs refining and standardizing to increase its uptake in the scientific community. In this dissertation, I set out to fill these three gaps in research.
The geographical focus in my dissertation is on LICs and MICs, which generally have lower capacities to adapt, and greater adaptation needs, regarding rapid global change. Using a spatially explicit indicator-based methodology, I combine geospatial and clustering methods to identify typical configurations of key factors in case studies causing vulnerability to human populations in two specific socio-ecological systems. Then I use statistical and analytical methods to interpret and appraise both the typical configurations and the global typologies they constitute.
First, I improve the indicator-based methodology and then reanalyze typical global problem structures of socio-ecological drylands vulnerability with seven indicator datasets. The reanalysis confirms the key tenets and produces a more realistic and nuanced typology of eight spatially explicit problem structures, or vulnerability profiles: Two new profiles with typically high natural resource endowment emerge, in which overpopulation has led to medium or high soil erosion. Second, I determine whether the new drylands typology and its socio-ecological vulnerability concept advance a thematically linked scientific debate in human security studies: what drives violent conflict in drylands? The typology is a much better predictor for conflict distribution and incidence in drylands than regression models typically used in peace research. Third, I analyze global problem structures typically causing vulnerability in an urban socio-ecological system - the rapidly urbanizing coastal fringe (RUCF) – with eleven indicator datasets. The RUCF also shows a robust typology, and its seven profiles show huge asymmetries in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The fastest population increase, lowest income, most ineffective governments, most prevalent poverty, and lowest adaptive capacity are all typically stacked in two profiles in LICs. This shows that beyond local case studies tropical cyclones and/or coastal flooding are neither stalling rapid population growth, nor urban expansion, in the RUCF. I propose entry points for scaling up successful vulnerability reduction strategies in coastal cities within the same vulnerability profile.
This dissertation shows that patchworks of local vulnerability assessments can be generalized to structure global socio-ecological vulnerabilities in both rural and urban socio-ecological systems according to typical problems. In terms of climate-related extreme events in the RUCF, conflicting problem structures and means to deal with them are threatening to widen the development gap between LICs and high-income countries unless successful vulnerability reduction measures are comprehensively scaled up. The explanatory power for human security in drylands warrants further applications of the methodology beyond global environmental change research in the future. Thus, analyzing spatially explicit global typologies of socio-ecological vulnerability is a useful complement to local assessments: The typologies provide entry points for where to consider which generic measures to reduce typical problem structures – including the countless places without local assessments. This can save limited time and financial resources for adaptation under rapid global change.
Antarctic glacier forfields are extreme environments and pioneer sites for ecological succession. The Antarctic continent shows microbial community development as a natural laboratory because of its special environment, geographic isolation and little anthropogenic influence. Increasing temperatures due to global warming lead to enhanced deglaciation processes in cold-affected habitats and new terrain is becoming exposed to soil formation and accessible for microbial colonisation. This study aims to understand the structure and development of glacier forefield bacterial communities, especially how soil parameters impact the microorganisms and how those are adapted to the extreme conditions of the habitat. To this effect, a combination of cultivation experiments, molecular, geophysical and geochemical analysis was applied to examine two glacier forfields of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica. Culture-independent molecular tools such as terminal restriction length polymorphism (T-RFLP), clone libraries and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) were used to determine bacterial diversity and distribution. Cultivation of yet unknown species was carried out to get insights in the physiology and adaptation of the microorganisms. Adaptation strategies of the microorganisms were studied by determining changes of the cell membrane phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) inventory of an isolated bacterium in response to temperature and pH fluctuations and by measuring enzyme activity at low temperature in environmental soil samples. The two studied glacier forefields are extreme habitats characterised by low temperatures, low water availability and small oligotrophic nutrient pools and represent sites of different bacterial succession in relation to soil parameters. The investigated sites showed microbial succession at an early step of soil formation near the ice tongue in comparison to closely located but rather older and more developed soil from the forefield. At the early step the succession is influenced by a deglaciation-dependent areal shift of soil parameters followed by a variable and prevalently depth-related distribution of the soil parameters that is driven by the extreme Antarctic conditions. The dominant taxa in the glacier forefields are Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria and Chloroflexi. The connection of soil characteristics with bacterial community structure showed that soil parameter and soil formation along the glacier forefield influence the distribution of certain phyla. In the early step of succession the relative undifferentiated bacterial diversity reflects the undifferentiated soil development and has a high potential to shift according to past and present environmental conditions. With progressing development environmental constraints such as water or carbon limitation have a greater influence. Adapting the culturing conditions to the cold and oligotrophic environment, the number of culturable heterotrophic bacteria reached up to 108 colony forming units per gram soil and 148 isolates were obtained. Two new psychrotolerant bacteria, Herbaspirillum psychrotolerans PB1T and Chryseobacterium frigidisoli PB4T, were characterised in detail and described as novel species in the family of Oxalobacteraceae and Flavobacteriaceae, respectively. The isolates are able to grow at low temperatures tolerating temperature fluctuations and they are not specialised to a certain substrate, therefore they are well-adapted to the cold and oligotrophic environment. The adaptation strategies of the microorganisms were analysed in environmental samples and cultures focussing on extracellular enzyme activity at low temperature and PLFA analyses. Extracellular phosphatases (pH 11 and pH 6.5), β-glucosidase, invertase and urease activity were detected in the glacier forefield soils at low temperature (14°C) catalysing the conversion of various compounds providing necessary substrates and may further play a role in the soil formation and total carbon turnover of the habitat. The PLFA analysis of the newly isolated species C. frigidisoli showed that the cold-adapted strain develops different strategies to maintain the cell membrane function under changing environmental conditions by altering the PLFA inventory at different temperatures and pH values. A newly discovered fatty acid, which was not found in any other microorganism so far, significantly increased at decreasing temperature and low pH and thus plays an important role in the adaption of C. frigidisoli. This work gives insights into the diversity, distribution and adaptation mechanisms of microbial communities in oligotrophic cold-affected soils and shows that Antarctic glacier forefields are suitable model systems to study bacterial colonisation in connection to soil formation.
Background Recent studies indicate the existence of a repeated bout effect on the contralateral untrained limb following eccentric and isometric contractions. Aims This review aims to summarize the evidence for magnitude, duration and differences of this effect following isometric and eccentric preconditioning exercises. Methods Medline, Cochrane, and Web of science were searched from January 1971 until September 2020. Randomized controlled trials, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies were identified by combining keywords and synonyms (e.g., "contralateral", "exercise", "preconditioning", "protective effect"). At least two of the following outcome parameters were mandatory for study inclusion: strength, muscle soreness, muscle swelling, limb circumference, inflammatory blood markers or protective index (relative change of aforementioned measures). Results After identifying 1979 articles, 13 studies were included. Most investigations examined elbow flexors and utilized eccentric isokinetic protocols to induce the contralateral repeated bout effect. The magnitude of protection was observed in four studies, smaller values of the contralateral when compared to the ipsilateral repeated bout effect were noted in three studies. The potential mechanism is thought to be of neural central nature since no differences in peripheral muscle activity were observed. Time course was examined in three investigations. One study showed a smaller protective effect following isometric preconditioning when compared to eccentric preconditioning exercises. Conclusions The contralateral repeated bout effect demonstrates a smaller magnitude and lasts shorter than the ipsilateral repeated bout effect. Future research should incorporate long-term controlled trials including larger populations to identify central mechanisms. This knowledge should be used in clinical practice to prepare immobilized limbs prospectively for an incremental load.
Following the extinction of dinosaurs, the great adaptive radiation of mammals occurred, giving rise to an astonishing ecological and phenotypic diversity of mammalian species. Even closely related species often inhabit vastly different habitats, where they encounter diverse environmental challenges and are exposed to different evolutionary pressures. As a response, mammals evolved various adaptive phenotypes over time, such as morphological, physiological and behavioural ones. Mammalian genomes vary in their content and structure and this variation represents the molecular mechanism for the long-term evolution of phenotypic variation. However, understanding this molecular basis of adaptive phenotypic variation is usually not straightforward.
The recent development of sequencing technologies and bioinformatics tools has enabled a better insight into mammalian genomes. Through these advances, it was acknowledged that mammalian genomes differ more, both within and between species, as a consequence of structural variation compared to single-nucleotide differences. Structural variant types investigated in this thesis - such as deletion, duplication, inversion and insertion, represent a change in the structure of the genome, impacting the size, copy number, orientation and content of DNA sequences. Unlike short variants, structural variants can span multiple genes. They can alter gene dosage, and cause notable gene expression differences and subsequently phenotypic differences. Thus, they can lead to a more dramatic effect on the fitness (reproductive success) of individuals, local adaptation of populations and speciation.
In this thesis, I investigated and evaluated the potential functional effect of structural variations on the genomes of mustelid species. To detect the genomic regions associated with phenotypic variation I assembled the first reference genome of the tayra (Eira barbara) relying on linked-read sequencing technology to achieve a high level of genome completeness important for reliable structural variant discovery. I then set up a bioinformatics pipeline to conduct a comparative genomic analysis and explore variation between mustelid species living in different environments. I found numerous genes associated with species-specific phenotypes related to diet, body condition and reproduction among others, to be impacted by structural variants.
Furthermore, I investigated the effects of artificial selection on structural variants in mice selected for high fertility, increased body mass and high endurance. Through selective breeding of each mouse line, the desired phenotypes have spread within these populations, while maintaining structural variants specific to each line. In comparison to the control line, the litter size has doubled in the fertility lines, individuals in the high body mass lines have become considerably larger, and mice selected for treadmill performance covered substantially more distance. Structural variants were found in higher numbers in these trait-selected lines than in the control line when compared to the mouse reference genome. Moreover, we have found twice as many structural variants spanning protein-coding genes (specific to each line) in trait-selected lines. Several of these variants affect genes associated with selected phenotypic traits. These results imply that structural variation does indeed contribute to the evolution of the selected phenotypes and is heritable.
Finally, I suggest a set of critical metrics of genomic data that should be considered for a stringent structural variation analysis as comparative genomic studies strongly rely on the contiguity and completeness of genome assemblies. Because most of the available data used to represent reference genomes of mammalian species is generated using short-read sequencing technologies, we may have incomplete knowledge of genomic features. Therefore, a cautious structural variation analysis is required to minimize the effect of technical constraints.
The impact of structural variants on the adaptive evolution of mammalian genomes is slowly gaining more focus but it is still incorporated in only a small number of population studies. In my thesis, I advocate the inclusion of structural variants in studies of genomic diversity for a more comprehensive insight into genomic variation within and between species, and its effect on adaptive evolution.
The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves.
Epigenetic modifications, of which DNA methylation is the most stable, are a mechanism conveying environmental information to subsequent generations via parental germ lines. The paternal contribution to adaptive processes in the offspring might be crucial, but has been widely neglected in comparison to the maternal one. To address the paternal impact on the offspring’s adaptability to changes in diet composition, we investigated if low protein diet (LPD) in F0 males caused epigenetic alterations in their subsequently sired sons. We therefore fed F0 male Wild guinea pigs with a diet lowered in protein content (LPD) and investigated DNA methylation in sons sired before and after their father’s LPD treatment in both, liver and testis tissues. Our results point to a ‘heritable epigenetic response’ of the sons to the fathers’ dietary change. Because we detected methylation changes also in the testis tissue, they are likely to be transmitted to the F2 generation. Gene-network analyses of differentially methylated genes in liver identified main metabolic pathways indicating a metabolic reprogramming (‘metabolic shift’). Epigenetic mechanisms, allowing an immediate and inherited adaptation may thus be important for the survival of species in the context of a persistently changing environment, such as climate change.
Epigenetic modifications, of which DNA methylation is the most stable, are a mechanism conveying environmental information to subsequent generations via parental germ lines. The paternal contribution to adaptive processes in the offspring might be crucial, but has been widely neglected in comparison to the maternal one. To address the paternal impact on the offspring's adaptability to changes in diet composition, we investigated if low protein diet (LPD) in F0 males caused epigenetic alterations in their subsequently sired sons. We therefore fed F0 male Wild guinea pigs with a diet lowered in protein content (LPD) and investigated DNA methylation in sons sired before and after their father's LPD treatment in both, liver and testis tissues. Our results point to a 'heritable epigenetic response' of the sons to the fathers' dietary change. Because we detected methylation changes also in the testis tissue, they are likely to be transmitted to the F2 generation. Gene-network analyses of differentially methylated genes in liver identified main metabolic pathways indicating a metabolic reprogramming ('metabolic shift'). Epigenetic mechanisms, allowing an immediate and inherited adaptation may thus be important for the survival of species in the context of a persistently changing environment, such as climate change.
Epigenetic modifications are a mechanism conveying environmental information to subsequent generations via parental germ lines. Research on epigenetic responses to environmental changes in wild mammals has been widely neglected, as well as studies that compare responses to changes in different environmental factors. Here, we focused on the transmission of DNA methylation changes to naive male offspring after paternal exposure to either diet (~40% less protein) or temperature increase (10 °C increased temperature). Because both experiments focused on the liver as the main metabolic and thermoregulation organ, we were able to decipher if epigenetic changes differed in response to different environmental changes. Reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) revealed differentially methylated regions (DMRs) in annotated genomic regions in sons sired before (control) and after the fathers’ treatments. We detected both a highly specific epigenetic response dependent on the environmental factor that had changed that was reflected in genes involved in specific metabolic pathways, and a more general response to changes in outer stimuli reflected by epigenetic modifications in a small subset of genes shared between both responses. Our results indicated that fathers prepared their offspring for specific environmental changes by paternally inherited epigenetic modifications, suggesting a strong paternal contribution to adaptive processes.
From dogmatic views on conservation agriculture adoption in Zambia towards adapting to context
(2018)
Conservation Agriculture (CA) has been widely promoted in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a sustainable agricultural practice, yet with debatable success. Most authors assume successful adoption, only if all three principles of CA are implemented: (1) minimum or zero tillage, (2) maintenance of a permanent soil cover, and (3) integration of crop rotations. Based on this strict definition, adoption has declined or remained stagnant. Presently, not much attention has been given to context-suited adaptation possibilities, and partial adoption has not been recognized as an entry point to full adoption. Furthermore, isolated success cases have not been analysed sufficiently. By applying the QAToCA approach based on focus group discussions complemented by semi-structured qualitative expert and farmer interviews, we assessed the reasons behind positive CA adaptation and adoption trends in Zambia. Main reasons behind Zambia’s emerging success are (1) a positive institutional influence, (2) a systematic approach towards CA promotion – encouraging a stepwise adaptation and adoption, and (3) mobilization of strong marketing dynamics around CA. These findings could help to eventually adjust or redesign CA promotion activities. We argue for a careful shift from the ‘dogmatic view’ on adoption of CA as a packaged technology, towards adapting its principles to the small-scale farming context of SSA.
Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria.
Global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under different climate futures
(2022)
Heat and increasing ambient temperatures under climate change represent a serious threat to human health in cities. Heat exposure has been studied extensively at a global scale. Studies comparing a defined temperature threshold with the future daytime temperature during a certain period of time, had concluded an increase in threat to human health. Such findings however do not explicitly account for possible changes in future human heat adaptation and might even overestimate heat exposure. Thus, heat adaptation and its development is still unclear. Human heat adaptation refers to the local temperature to which populations are adjusted to. It can be inferred from the lowest point of the U- or V-shaped heat-mortality relationship (HMR), the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). While epidemiological studies inform on the MMT at the city scale for case studies, a general model applicable at the global scale to infer on temporal change in MMTs had not yet been realised. The conventional approach depends on data availability, their robustness, and on the access to daily mortality records at the city scale. Thorough analysis however must account for future changes in the MMT as heat adaptation happens partially passively. Human heat adaptation consists of two aspects: (1) the intensity of the heat hazard that is still tolerated by human populations, meaning the heat burden they can bear and (2) the wealth-induced technological, social and behavioural measures that can be employed to avoid heat exposure. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and quantify human heat adaptation among urban populations at a global scale under the current climate and to project future adaptation under climate change until the end of the century. To date, this has not yet been accomplished. The evaluation of global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under climate change comprises three levels of analysis. First, using the example of Germany, the MMT is calculated at the city level by applying the conventional method. Second, this thesis compiles a data pool of 400 urban MMTs to develop and train a new model capable of estimating MMTs on the basis of physical and socio-economic city characteristics using multivariate non-linear multivariate regression. The MMT is successfully described as a function of the current climate, the topography and the socio-economic standard, independently of daily mortality data for cities around the world. The city-specific MMT estimates represents a measure of human heat adaptation among the urban population. In a final third analysis, the model to derive human heat adaptation was adjusted to be driven by projected climate and socio-economic variables for the future. This allowed for estimation of the MMT and its change for 3 820 cities worldwide for different combinations of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways until 2100. The knowledge on the evolution of heat adaptation in the future is a novelty as mostly heat exposure and its future development had been researched. In this work, changes in heat adaptation and exposure were analysed jointly. A wide range of possible health-related outcomes up to 2100 was the result, of which two scenarios with the highest socio-economic developments but opposing strong warming levels were highlighted for comparison. Strong economic growth based upon fossil fuel exploitation is associated with a high gain in heat adaptation, but may not be able to compensate for the associated negative health effects due to increased heat exposure in 30% to 40% of the cities investigated caused by severe climate change. A slightly less strong, but sustainable growth brings moderate gains in heat adaptation but a lower heat exposure and exposure reductions in 80% to 84% of the cities in terms of frequency (number of days exceeding the MMT) and intensity (magnitude of the MMT exceedance) due to a milder global warming. Choosing a 2 ° C compatible development by 2100 would therefore lower the risk of heat-related mortality at the end of the century. In summary, this thesis makes diverse and multidisciplinary contributions to a deeper understanding of human adaptation to heat under the current and the future climate. It is one of the first studies to carry out a systematic and statistical analysis of urban characteristics which are useful as MMT drivers to establish a generalised model of human heat adaptation, applicable at the global level. A broad range of possible heat-related health options for various future scenarios was shown for the first time. This work is of relevance for the assessment of heat-health impacts in regions where mortality data are not accessible or missing. The results are useful for health care planning at the meso- and macro-level and to urban- and climate change adaptation planning. Lastly, beyond having met the posed objective, this thesis advances research towards a global future impact assessment of heat on human health by providing an alternative method of MMT estimation, that is spatially and temporally flexible in its application.
Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.
Venomous snakes often display extensive variation in venom composition both between and within species. However, the mechanisms underlying the distribution of different toxins and venom types among populations and taxa remain insufficiently known. Rattlesnakes (Crotalus, Sistrurus) display extreme inter-and intraspecific variation in venom composition, centered particularly on the presence or absence of presynaptically neurotoxic phospholipases A2 such as Mojave toxin (MTX). Interspecific hybridization has been invoked as a mechanism to explain the distribution of these toxins across rattlesnakes, with the implicit assumption that they are adaptively advantageous. Here, we test the potential of adaptive hybridization as a mechanism for venom evolution by assessing the distribution of genes encoding the acidic and basic subunits of Mojave toxin across a hybrid zone between MTX-positive Crotalus scutulatus and MTX-negative C. viridis in southwestern New Mexico, USA. Analyses of morphology, mitochondrial and single copy-nuclear genes document extensive admixture within a narrow hybrid zone. The genes encoding the two MTX subunits are strictly linked, and found in most hybrids and backcrossed individuals, but not in C. viridis away from the hybrid zone. Presence of the genes is invariably associated with presence of the corresponding toxin in the venom. We conclude that introgression of highly lethal neurotoxins through hybridization is not necessarily favored by natural selection in rattlesnakes, and that even extensive hybridization may not lead to introgression of these genes into another species.
Venomous snakes often display extensive variation in venom composition both between and within species. However, the mechanisms underlying the distribution of different toxins and venom types among populations and taxa remain insufficiently known. Rattlesnakes (Crotalus, Sistrurus) display extreme inter-and intraspecific variation in venom composition, centered particularly on the presence or absence of presynaptically neurotoxic phospholipases A2 such as Mojave toxin (MTX). Interspecific hybridization has been invoked as a mechanism to explain the distribution of these toxins across rattlesnakes, with the implicit assumption that they are adaptively advantageous. Here, we test the potential of adaptive hybridization as a mechanism for venom evolution by assessing the distribution of genes encoding the acidic and basic subunits of Mojave toxin across a hybrid zone between MTX-positive Crotalus scutulatus and MTX-negative C. viridis in southwestern New Mexico, USA. Analyses of morphology, mitochondrial and single copy-nuclear genes document extensive admixture within a narrow hybrid zone. The genes encoding the two MTX subunits are strictly linked, and found in most hybrids and backcrossed individuals, but not in C. viridis away from the hybrid zone. Presence of the genes is invariably associated with presence of the corresponding toxin in the venom. We conclude that introgression of highly lethal neurotoxins through hybridization is not necessarily favored by natural selection in rattlesnakes, and that even extensive hybridization may not lead to introgression of these genes into another species.
Flood warning systems are longstanding success stories with respect to protecting human life, but monetary losses continue to grow. Knowledge on the effectiveness of flood early warning in reducing monetary losses is scarce, especially at the individual level. To gain more knowledge in this area, we analyze a dataset that is unique with respect to detailed information on warning reception and monetary losses at the property level and with respect to amount of data available. The dataset contains 4,468 loss cases from six flood events in Germany. These floods occurred between 2002 and 2013. The data from each event were collected by computer-aided telephone interviews in four surveys following a repeated cross-sectional design. We quantitatively reveal that flood early warning is only effective in reducing monetary losses when people know what to do when they receive the warning. We also show that particularly long-term preparedness is associated with people knowing what to do when they receive a warning. Thus, risk communication, training, and (financial) support for private preparedness are effective in mitigating flood losses in two ways: precautionary measures and more effective emergency responses.
The occurrence of refugia beyond the arctic treeline and genetic adaptation therein play a crucial role of largely unknown effect size. While refugia have potential for rapidly colonizing the tundra under global warming, the taxa may be maladapted to the new environmental conditions. Understanding the genetic composition and age of refugia is thus crucial for predicting any migration response.
Here, we genotype 194 larch individuals from an similar to 1.8 km(2)area in northcentral Siberia on the southern Taimyr Peninsula by applying an assay of 16 nuclear microsatellite markers. For estimating the age of clonal individuals, we counted tree rings at sections along branches to establish a lateral growth rate that was then combined with geographic distance.
Findings reveal that the predominant reproduction type is clonal (58.76%) by short distance spreading of ramets. One outlier of clones 1 km apart could have been dispersed by reindeer. In clonal groups and within individuals, we find that somatic mutations accumulate with geographic distance. Clonal groups of two or more individuals are observed. Clonal age estimates regularly suggest individuals as old as 2,200 years, which coincides with a major environmental change that forced a treeline retreat in the region.
We conclude that individuals with clonal growth mode were naturally selected as it lowers the likely risk of extinction under a harsh environment. We discuss this legacy from the past that might now be a maladaptation and hinder expansion under currently strongly increasing temperatures.
We compiled global occurrence data sets of 13 congeneric sexual and apomictic species pairs, and used principal components analysis (PCA) and kernel smoothers to compare changes in climatic niche optima, breadths and unfilling/expansion between native and alien ranges. Niche change metrics were compared between sexual and apomictic species. All 26 species showed changes in niche optima and/or breadth and 14 species significantly expanded their climatic niches. However, we found no effect of the reproductive system on niche dynamics. Instead, species with narrower native niches showed higher rates of niche expansion in the alien ranges. Our results suggest that niche shifts are frequent in plant invasions but evolutionary potential may not be of major importance for such shifts. Niche dynamics rather appear to be driven by changes of the realized niche without adaptive change of the fundamental climatic niche.
There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply sidethrough the mitigation of greenhouse gasesand from the demand sidethrough adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the worlds third-largest electricity marketthe 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estimate country-level doseresponse functions between daily peak/total electricity load and ambient temperature for the period 2006-2012. After removing the impact of nontemperature confounders and normalizing the residual load data for each country, we estimate a common doseresponse function, which we use to compute national electricity loads for temperatures that lie outside each countrys currently observed temperature range. To this end, we impose end-of-century climate on todays European economies following three different greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories, ranging from ambitious climate-change mitigationin line with the Paris agreementto unabated climate change. We find significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (similar to 3 to similar to 7% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (similar to-6 to similar to-2% for Sweden and Norway). While the projected effect on European total consumption is nearly zero, the significant polarization and seasonal shifts in peak demand and consumption have important ramifications for the location of costly peak-generating capacity, transmission infrastructure, and the design of energy-efficiency policy and storage capacity.