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The PEGASOS project was a major international seismic hazard study, one of the largest ever conducted anywhere in the world, to assess seismic hazard at four nuclear power plant sites in Switzerland. Before the report of this project has become publicly available, a paper attacking both methodology and results has appeared. Since the general scientific readership may have difficulty in assessing this attack in the absence of the report being attacked, we supply a response in the present paper. The bulk of the attack, besides some misconceived arguments about the role of uncertainties in seismic hazard analysis, is carried by some exercises that purport to be validation exercises. In practice, they are no such thing; they are merely independent sets of hazard calculations based on varying assumptions and procedures, often rather questionable, which come up with various different answers which have no particular significance. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
This study presents results of ambient noise measurements from temporary single station and small-scale array deployments in the northeast of Basle. H/V spectral ratios were determined along various profiles crossing the eastern masterfault of the Rhine Rift Valley and the adjacent sedimentary rift fills. The fundamental H/V peak frequencies are decreasing along the profile towards the eastern direction being consistent with the dip of the tertiary sediments within the rift. Using existing empirical relationships between H/V frequency peaks and the depth of the dominant seismic contrast, derived on basis of the lambda/4-resonance hypothesis and a power law depth dependence of the S-wave velocity, we obtain thicknesses of the rift fill from about 155 m in the west to 280 in in the east. This is in agreement with previous studies. The array analysis of the ambient noise wavefield yielded a stable dispersion relation consistent with Rayleigh wave propagation velocities. We conclude that a significant amount of surface waves is contained in the observed wavefield. The computed ellipticity for fundamental mode Rayleigh waves for the velocity depth models used for the estimation of the sediment thicknesses is in agreement with the observed H/V spectra over a large frequency band
The combined passive and active seismic TRANSALP experiment produced an unprecedented high-resolution crustal image of the Eastern Alps between Munich and Venice. The European and Adriatic Mohos (EM and AM, respectively) are clearly imaged with different seismic techniques: near-vertical incidence reflections and receiver functions (RFs). The European Moho dips gently southward from 35 km beneath the northern foreland to a maximum depth of 55 km beneath the central part of the Eastern Alps, whereas the Adriatic Moho is imaged primarily by receiver functions at a relatively constant depth of about 40 km. In both data sets, we have also detected first-order Alpine shear zones, such as the Helvetic detachment, Inntal fault and SubTauern ramp in the north. Apart from the Valsugana thrust, receiver functions in the southern part of the Eastern Alps have also observed a north dipping interface, which may penetrate the entire Adriatic crust [Adriatic Crust Interface (ACI)]. Deep crustal seismicity may be related to the ACI. We interpret the ACI as the currently active retroshear zone in the doubly vergent Alpine collisional belt. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
In recent years, H/V measurements have been increasingly used to map the thickness of sediment fill in sedimentary basins in the context of seismic hazard assessment. This parameter is believed to be an important proxy for the site effects in sedimentary basins (e.g. in the Los Angeles basin). Here we present the results of a test using this approach across an active normal fault in a structurally well known situation. Measurements on a 50 km long profile with 1 km station spacing clearly show a change in the frequency of the fundamental peak of H/V ratios with increasing thickness of the sediment layer in the eastern part of the Lower Rhine Embayment. Subsequently, a section of 10 km length across the Erft-Sprung system, a normal fault with ca. 750 m vertical offset, was measured with a station distance of 100 m. Frequencies of the first and second peaks and the first trough in the H/V spectra are used in a simple resonance model to estimate depths of the bedrock. While the frequency of the first peak shows a large scatter for sediment depths larger than ca. 500 m, the frequency of the first trough follows the changing thickness of the sediments across the fault. The lateral resolution is in the range of the station distance of 100 m. A power law for the depth dependence of the S-wave velocity derived from down hole measurements in an earlier study [Budny, 1984] and power laws inverted from dispersion analysis of micro array measurements [Scherbaum et al., 2002] agree with the results from the H/V ratios of this study
The ellipticity of Rayleigh surface waves, which is an important parameter characterizing the propagation medium, is studied for several models with increasing complexity. While the main focus lies on theory, practical implications of the use of the horizontal to vertical component ratio (H/V-ratio) to Study the subsurface structure are considered as well. Love's approximation of the ellipticity for an incompressible layer over an incompressible half-space is critically discussed especially concerning its applicability for different impedance contrasts. The main result is an analytically exact formula of H/V for a 2-layer model of compressible media, which is a generalization of Love's formula. It turns out that for a limited range of models Love's approximation can be used also in the general case. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
To address one of the central questions of plate tectonics-How do large transform systems work and what are their typical features?-seismic investigations across the Dead Sea Transform (DST), the boundary between the African and Arabian plates in the Middle East, were conducted for the first time. A major component of these investigations was a combined reflection/ refraction survey across the territories of Palestine, Israel and Jordan. The main results of this study are: (1) The seismic basement is offset by 3-5 km under the DST, (2) The DST cuts through the entire crust, broadening in the lower crust, (3) Strong lower crustal reflectors are imaged only on one side of the DST, (4) The seismic velocity sections show a steady increase in the depth of the crust-mantle transition (Moho) from 26 km at the Mediterranean to 39 km under the Jordan highlands, with only a small but visible, asymmetric topography of the Moho under the DST. These observations can be linked to the left-lateral movement of 105 km of the two plates in the last 17 Myr, accompanied by strong deformation within a narrow zone cutting through the entire crust. Comparing the DST and the San Andreas Fault (SAF) system, a strong asymmetry in subhorizontal lower crustal reflectors and a deep reaching deformation zone both occur around the DST and the SAF. The fact that such lower crustal reflectors and deep deformation zones are observed in such different transform systems suggests that these structures are possibly fundamental features of large transform plate boundaries
The use of ground-motion-prediction equations to estimate ground shaking has become a very popular approach for seismic-hazard assessment, especially in the framework of a logic-tree approach. Owing to the large number of existing published ground-motion models, however, the selection and ranking of appropriate models for a particular target area often pose serious practical problems. Here we show how observed around-motion records can help to guide this process in a systematic and comprehensible way. A key element in this context is a new, likelihood based, goodness-of-fit measure that has the property not only to quantify the model fit but also to measure in some degree how well the underlying statistical model assumptions are met. By design, this measure naturally scales between 0 and 1, with a value of 0.5 for a situation in which the model perfectly matches the sample distribution both in terms of mean and standard deviation. We have used it in combination with other goodness-of-fit measures to derive a simple classification scheme to quantify how well a candidate ground-rnotion-prediction equation models a particular set of observed-response spectra. This scheme is demonstrated to perform well in recognizing a number of popular ground-motion models from their rock-site- recording, subsets. This indicates its potential for aiding the assignment of logic-tree weights in a consistent and reproducible way. We have applied our scheme to the border region of France, Germany, and Switzerland where the M-w 4.8 St. Die earthquake of 22 February 2003 in eastern France recently provided a small set of observed-response spectra. These records are best modeled by the ground-motion-prediction equation of Berge-Thierry et al. (2003), which is based on the analysis of predominantly European data. The fact that the Swiss model of Bay et al. (2003) is not able to model the observed records in an acceptable way may indicate general problems arising from the use of weak-motion data for strong-motion prediction
One of the major challenges in engineering seismology is the reliable prediction of site-specific ground motion for particular earthquakes, observed at specific distances. For larger events, a special problem arises, at short distances, with the source-to-site distance measure, because distance metrics based on a point-source model are no longer appropriate. As a consequence, different attenuation relations differ in the distance metric that they use. In addition to being a source of confusion, this causes problems to quantitatively compare or combine different ground- motion models; for example, in the context of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment, in cases where ground-motion models with different distance metrics occupy neighboring branches of a logic tree. In such a situation, very crude assumptions about source sizes and orientations often have to be used to be able to derive an estimate of the particular metric required. Even if this solves the problem of providing a number to put into the attenuation relation, a serious problem remains. When converting distance measures, the corresponding uncertainties map onto the estimated ground motions according to the laws of error propagation. To make matters worse, conversion of distance metrics can cause the uncertainties of the adapted ground-motion model to become magnitude and distance dependent, even if they are not in the original relation. To be able to treat this problem quantitatively, the variability increase caused by the distance metric conversion has to be quantified. For this purpose, we have used well established scaling laws to determine explicit distance conversion relations using regression analysis on simulated data. We demonstrate that, for all practical purposes, most popular distance metrics can be related to the Joyner-Boore distance using models based on gamma distributions to express the shape of some "residual function." The functional forms are magnitude and distance dependent and are expressed as polynomials. We compare the performance of these relations with manually derived individual distance estimates for the Landers, the Imperial Valley, and the Chi-Chi earthquakes
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