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Data assimilation aims to blend incomplete and inaccurate data with physics-based dynamical models. In the Earth's radiation belts, it is used to reconstruct electron phase space density, and it has become an increasingly important tool in validating our current understanding of radiation belt dynamics, identifying new physical processes, and predicting the near-Earth hazardous radiation environment. In this study, we perform reanalysis of the sparse measurements from four spacecraft using the three-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt diffusion model and a split-operator Kalman filter over a 6-month period from 1 October 2012 to 1 April 2013. In comparison to previous works, our 3-D model accounts for more physical processes, namely, mixed pitch angle-energy diffusion, scattering by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron waves, and magnetopause shadowing. We describe how data assimilation, by means of the innovation vector, can be used to account for missing physics in the model. We use this method to identify the radial distances from the Earth and the geomagnetic conditions where our model is inconsistent with the measured phase space density for different values of the invariants mu and K. As a result, the Kalman filter adjusts the predictions in order to match the observations, and we interpret this as evidence of where and when additional source or loss processes are active. The current work demonstrates that 3-D data assimilation provides a comprehensive picture of the radiation belt electrons and is a crucial step toward performing reanalysis using measurements from ongoing and future missions.
We investigate the ergodic properties of a random walker performing (anomalous) diffusion on a random fractal geometry. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations of the motion of tracer particles on an ensemble of realisations of percolation clusters are performed for a wide range of percolation densities. Single trajectories of the tracer motion are analysed to quantify the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) and to compare this with the ensemble averaged MSD of the particle motion. Other complementary physical observables associated with ergodicity are studied, as well. It turns out that the time averaged MSD of individual realisations exhibits non-vanishing fluctuations even in the limit of very long observation times as the percolation density approaches the critical value. This apparent non-ergodic behaviour concurs with the ergodic behaviour on the ensemble averaged level. We demonstrate how the non-vanishing fluctuations in single particle trajectories are analytically expressed in terms of the fractal dimension and the cluster size distribution of the random geometry, thus being of purely geometrical origin. Moreover, we reveal that the convergence scaling law to ergodicity, which is known to be inversely proportional to the observation time T for ergodic diffusion processes, follows a power-law ∼T−h with h < 1 due to the fractal structure of the accessible space. These results provide useful measures for differentiating the subdiffusion on random fractals from an otherwise closely related process, namely, fractional Brownian motion. Implications of our results on the analysis of single particle tracking experiments are provided.