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Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10-100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial data products describing local to regional scale distribution of patterned ground or polygonal tundra geomorphology are largely unavailable. Thus, our understanding of local impacts on regional scale processes (e.g., carbon dynamics) may be limited. We produced two key spatiotemporal datasets spanning the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (similar to 60,000 km(2)) to evaluate climate-geomorphological controls on arctic tundra productivity change, using (1) a novel 30m classification of polygonal tundra geomorphology and (2) decadal-trends in surface greenness using the Landsat archive (1999-2014). These datasets can be easily integrated and adapted in an array of local to regional applications such as (1) upscaling plot-level measurements (e.g., carbon/energy fluxes), (2) mapping of soils, vegetation, or permafrost, and/or (3) initializing ecosystem biogeochemistry, hydrology, and/or habitat modeling.
Tundra be dammed
(2018)
Increasing air temperatures are changing the arctic tundra biome. Permafrost is thawing, snow duration is decreasing, shrub vegetation is proliferating, and boreal wildlife is encroaching. Here we present evidence of the recent range expansion of North American beaver (Castor canadensis) into the Arctic, and consider how this ecosystem engineer might reshape the landscape, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes. We developed a remote sensing approach that maps formation and disappearance of ponds associated with beaver activity. Since 1999, 56 new beaver pond complexes were identified, indicating that beavers are colonizing a predominantly tundra region (18,293km(2)) of northwest Alaska. It is unclear how improved tundra stream habitat, population rebound following overtrapping for furs, or other factors are contributing to beaver range expansion. We discuss rates and likely routes of tundra beaver colonization, as well as effects on permafrost, stream ice regimes, and freshwater and riparian habitat. Beaver ponds and associated hydrologic changes are thawing permafrost. Pond formation increases winter water temperatures in the pond and downstream, likely creating new and more varied aquatic habitat, but specific biological implications are unknown. Beavers create dynamic wetlands and are agents of disturbance that may enhance ecosystem responses to warming in the Arctic.
Thermokarst lakes are prevalent in Arctic coastal lowland regions and sublake permafrost degradation and talik development contributes to greenhouse gas emissions by tapping the large permafrost carbon pool. Whereas lateral thermokarst lake expansion is readily apparent through remote sensing and shoreline measurements, sublake thawed sediment conditions and talik growth are difficult to measure. Here we combine transient electromagnetic surveys with thermal modeling, backed up by measured permafrost properties and radiocarbon ages, to reveal closed-talik geometry associated with a thermokarst lake in continuous permafrost. To improve access to talik geometry data, we conducted surveys along three transient electromagnetic transects perpendicular to lakeshores with different decadal-scale expansion rates of 0.16, 0.38, and 0.58m/year. We modeled thermal development of the talik using boundary conditions based on field data from the lake, surrounding permafrost and a borehole, independent of the transient electromagnetics. A talik depth of 91m was determined from analysis of the transient electromagnetic surveys. Using a lake initiation age of 1400years before present and available subsurface properties the results from thermal modeling of the lake center arrived at a best estimate talk depth of 80m, which is on the same order of magnitude as the results from the transient electromagnetic survey. Our approach has provided a noninvasive estimate of talik geometry suitable for comparable settings throughout circum-Arctic coastal lowland regions.
The arctic region is undergoing the most rapid environmental change experienced on Earth, and the rate of change is expected to increase over the coming decades. Arctic coasts are particularly vulnerable because they lie at the interface between terrestrial systems dominated by permafrost and marine systems dominated by sea ice. An increased rise in sea level and degradation of sea-ice as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its most recent report and as observed recently in the Arctic will likely result in greater rates of coastal retreat. An increase in coastal erosion would result in dramatic increases in the volume of sediment, organic carbon and contaminants to the Arctic Ocean. These in turn have the potential to create dramatic changes in the geochemistry and biodiversity of the nearshore zone and affect the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle. To calculate estimates of organic carbon input from coastal erosion to the Arctic Ocean, current methods rely on the length of the coastline in the form of non self-similar line datasets. This thesis however emphasizes that using shorelines drawn at different scales can induce changes in the amount of sediment released by 30% in some cases. It proposes a substitute method of computations of erosion based on areas instead of lengths (i.e. buffers instead of shoreline lengths) which can be easily implemented at the circum-Arctic scale. Using this method, variations in quantities of eroded sediment are, on average, 70% less affected by scale changes and are therefore a more reliable method of calculation. Current estimates of coastal erosion rates in the Arctic are scarce and long-term datasets are a handful, which complicates assessment and prognosis of coastal processes, in particular the occurrence of coastal hazards. This thesis aims at filling the gap by providing the first long-term dataset (1951-2006) of coastal erosion on the Bykovsky Peninsula, North-East Siberia. This study shows that the coastline, which is made of ice-rich permafrost, retreated at a mean annual rate of 0.59 m/yr between 1951and 2006. Rates were highly variable: 97.0 % of the rates observed were less than 2 m/yr and 81.6% were less than 1m/yr. However, no significant trend in erosion could be recorded despite the study of five temporal subperiods within 1951-2006. The juxtaposition of wind records could not help to explain erosion records either and this thesis emphasizes the local controls on erosion, in particular the cryostratigraphy, the proximity of the Peninsula to the Lena River Delta freshwater plume and the local topographical constraints on swell development. On ice-rich coastal stretches of the Artic, the interaction of coastal dynamics and permafrost leads to the occurrence of spectacular “C-shaped” depressions termed retrogressive thaw slumps which can reach lengths of up to 650 m. On Herschel Island and at King Point (Yukon Coastal Plain, northern Canada), topographical, sedimentological and biogeochemical surveys were conducted to investigate the present and past activity of these landforms. In particular, undisturbed tundra areas were compared with zones of former slump activity, now stabilized and re-vegetated. This thesis shows that stabilized areas are drier and less prone to plant growth than undisturbed areas and feature fundamentally different geotechnical properties. Radiocarbon dating and topographical surveys indicated until up to 300 BP a likely period of dramatic slump activity on Herschel Island, similar to the one currently observed, which led to the creation of these surfaces. This thesis hypothesizes the occurrence of a ~250 years cycle of slump activity on the Herschel Island shoreline based on the surveyed topography and cryostratigraphy and anticipates higher frequency of slump activity in the future. The variety of processes described in this thesis highlights the changing nature of the intensity and frequency of physical processes acting upon the arctic coast. It also challenges current perceptions of the threats to existing industry and community infrastructure in the Arctic. The increasing presence of humans on Artic coasts coupled with the expected development of shipping will drive an increase in economical and industrial activity on these coasts which remains to be addressed scientifically.
Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 +/- 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 +/- 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 +/- 0.21 degrees C or 7.8 +/- 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 degrees C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 degrees C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 degrees C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation.
In this study, we analyze interactions in lake and lake catchment systems of a continuous permafrost area. We assessed colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption at 440 nm (a(440)(CDOM)) and absorption slope (S300-500) in lakes using field sampling and optical remote sensing data for an area of 350 km(2) in Central Yamal, Siberia. Applying a CDOM algorithm (ratio of green and red band reflectance) for two high spatial resolution multispectral GeoEye-1 and Worldview-2 satellite images, we were able to extrapolate the a()(CDOM) data from 18 lakes sampled in the field to 356 lakes in the study area (model R-2 = 0.79). Values of a(440)(CDOM) in 356 lakes varied from 0.48 to 8.35 m(-1) with a median of 1.43 m(-1). This a()(CDOM) dataset was used to relate lake CDOM to 17 lake and lake catchment parameters derived from optical and radar remote sensing data and from digital elevation model analysis in order to establish the parameters controlling CDOM in lakes on the Yamal Peninsula. Regression tree model and boosted regression tree analysis showed that the activity of cryogenic processes (thermocirques) in the lake shores and lake water level were the two most important controls, explaining 48.4% and 28.4% of lake CDOM, respectively (R-2 = 0.61). Activation of thermocirques led to a large input of terrestrial organic matter and sediments from catchments and thawed permafrost to lakes (n = 15, mean a(440)(CDOM) = 5.3 m(-1)). Large lakes on the floodplain with a connection to Mordy-Yakha River received more CDOM (n = 7, mean a(440)(CDOM) = 3.8 m(-1)) compared to lakes located on higher terraces.
In this study, we analyze interactions in lake and lake catchment systems of a continuous permafrost area. We assessed colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption at 440 nm (a(440)(CDOM)) and absorption slope (S300-500) in lakes using field sampling and optical remote sensing data for an area of 350 km(2) in Central Yamal, Siberia. Applying a CDOM algorithm (ratio of green and red band reflectance) for two high spatial resolution multispectral GeoEye-1 and Worldview-2 satellite images, we were able to extrapolate the a()(CDOM) data from 18 lakes sampled in the field to 356 lakes in the study area (model R-2 = 0.79). Values of a(440)(CDOM) in 356 lakes varied from 0.48 to 8.35 m(-1) with a median of 1.43 m(-1). This a()(CDOM) dataset was used to relate lake CDOM to 17 lake and lake catchment parameters derived from optical and radar remote sensing data and from digital elevation model analysis in order to establish the parameters controlling CDOM in lakes on the Yamal Peninsula. Regression tree model and boosted regression tree analysis showed that the activity of cryogenic processes (thermocirques) in the lake shores and lake water level were the two most important controls, explaining 48.4% and 28.4% of lake CDOM, respectively (R-2 = 0.61). Activation of thermocirques led to a large input of terrestrial organic matter and sediments from catchments and thawed permafrost to lakes (n = 15, mean a(440)(CDOM) = 5.3 m(-1)). Large lakes on the floodplain with a connection to Mordy-Yakha River received more CDOM (n = 7, mean a(440)(CDOM) = 3.8 m(-1)) compared to lakes located on higher terraces.
Coastal ecosystems in the Arctic are affected by climate change. As summer rainfall frequency and intensity are projected to increase in the future, more organic matter, nutrients and sediment could bemobilized and transported into the coastal nearshore zones. However, knowledge of current processes and future changes is limited. We investigated streamflow dynamics and the impacts of summer rainfall on lateral fluxes in a small coastal catchment on Herschel Island in the western Canadian Arctic. For the summer monitoring periods of 2014-2016, mean dissolved organic matter flux over 17 days amounted to 82.7 +/- 30.7 kg km(-2) and mean total dissolved solids flux to 5252 +/- 1224 kg km(-2). Flux of suspended sediment was 7245 kg km(-2) in 2015, and 369 kg km(-2) in 2016. We found that 2.0% of suspended sediment was composed of particulate organic carbon. Data and hysteresis analysis suggest a limited supply of sediments; their interannual variability is most likely caused by short-lived localized disturbances. In contrast, our results imply that dissolved organic carbon is widely available throughout the catchment and exhibits positive linear relationship with runoff. We hypothesize that increased projected rainfall in the future will result in a similar increase of dissolved organic carbon fluxes.
Sub-seasonal thaw slump mass wasting is not consistently energy limited at the landscape scale
(2018)
Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of timescales. On sub-seasonal timescales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellites. The estimated elevation changes at 12m resolution complement the commonly observed planimetric retreat rates by providing information on volume losses. Their high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km(2)) allow us to track mass wasting as drivers such as the available energy change during the summer of 2015 in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm day 1) despite the ample available energy, suggesting the widespread presence of early season insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm day 1), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the headwall height. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.
Arctic lowlands are characterized by large numbers of small waterbodies, which are known to affect surface energy budgets and the global carbon cycle. Statistical analysis of their size distributions has been hindered by the shortage of observations at sufficiently high spatial resolutions. This situation has now changed with the high-resolution (<5 m) circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database recently becoming available. We have used this database to make the first consistent, high-resolution estimation of Arctic waterbody size distributions, with surface areas ranging from 0.0001 km(2) (100 m(2)) to 1 km(2). We found that the size distributions varied greatly across the thirty study regions investigated and that there was no single universal size distribution function (including power-law distribution functions) appropriate across all of the study regions. We did, however, find close relationships between the statistical moments (mean, variance, and skewness) of the waterbody size distributions from different study regions. Specifically, we found that the spatial variance increased linearly with mean waterbody size (R-2 = 0.97, p < 2.2e-16) and that the skewness decreased approximately hyperbolically. We have demonstrated that these relationships (1) hold across the 30 Arctic study regions covering a variety of (bio)climatic and permafrost zones, (2) hold over time in two of these study regions for which multi-decadal satellite imagery is available, and (3) can be reproduced by simulating rising water levels in a high-resolution digital elevation model. The consistent spatial and temporal relationships between the statistical moments of the waterbody size distributions underscore the dominance of topographic controls in lowland permafrost areas. These results provide motivation for further analyses of the factors involved in waterbody development and spatial distribution and for investigations into the possibility of using statistical moments to predict future hydrologic dynamics in the Arctic.
Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (similar to 60,000 km(2)) using the Landsat archive (1999-2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.
In recent decades, slope instability in high-mountain regions has often been linked to increase in temperature and the associated permafrost degradation and/or the increase in frequency/intensity of rainstorm events. In this context we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and potential controlling mechanisms of small- to medium-sized mass movements in a high-elevation catchment of the Italian Alps (Sulden/Solda basin). We found that slope-failure events (mostly in the form of rockfalls) have increased since the 2000s, whereas the occurrence of debris flows has increased only since 2010. The current climate-warming trend registered in the study area apparently increases the elevation of rockfall-detachment areas by approximately 300 m, mostly controlled by the combined effects of frost-cracking and permafrost thawing. In contrast, the occurrence of debris flows does not exhibit such an altitudinal shift, as it is primarily driven by extreme precipitation events exceeding the 75th percentile of the intensity-duration rainfall distribution. Potential debris-flow events in this environment may additionally be influenced by the accumulation of unconsolidated debris over time, which is then released during extreme rainfall events. Overall, there is evidence that the upper Sulden/Solda basin (above ca. 2500 m above sea level [a.s.l.]), and especially the areas in the proximity of glaciers, have experienced a significant decrease in slope stability since the 2000s, and that an increase in rockfalls and debris flows during spring and summer can be inferred. Our study thus confirms that "forward-looking" hazard mapping should be undertaken in these increasingly frequented, high-elevation areas of the Alps, as environmental change has elevated the overall hazard level in these regions.
With Arctic ground as a huge and temperature-sensitive carbon reservoir, maintaining low ground temperatures and frozen conditions to prevent further carbon emissions that contrib-ute to global climate warming is a key element in humankind’s fight to maintain habitable con-ditions on earth. Former studies showed that during the late Pleistocene, Arctic ground condi-tions were generally colder and more stable as the result of an ecosystem dominated by large herbivorous mammals and vast extents of graminoid vegetation – the mammoth steppe. Characterised by high plant productivity (grassland) and low ground insulation due to animal-caused compression and removal of snow, this ecosystem enabled deep permafrost aggrad-ation. Now, with tundra and shrub vegetation common in the terrestrial Arctic, these effects are not in place anymore. However, it appears to be possible to recreate this ecosystem local-ly by artificially increasing animal numbers, and hence keep Arctic ground cold to reduce or-ganic matter decomposition and carbon release into the atmosphere.
By measuring thaw depth, total organic carbon and total nitrogen content, stable carbon iso-tope ratio, radiocarbon age, n-alkane and alcohol characteristics and assessing dominant vegetation types along grazing intensity transects in two contrasting Arctic areas, it was found that recreating conditions locally, similar to the mammoth steppe, seems to be possible. For permafrost-affected soil, it was shown that intensive grazing in direct comparison to non-grazed areas reduces active layer depth and leads to higher TOC contents in the active layer soil. For soil only frozen on top in winter, an increase of TOC with grazing intensity could not be found, most likely because of confounding factors such as vertical water and carbon movement, which is not possible with an impermeable layer in permafrost. In both areas, high animal activity led to a vegetation transformation towards species-poor graminoid-dominated landscapes with less shrubs. Lipid biomarker analysis revealed that, even though the available organic material is different between the study areas, in both permafrost-affected and sea-sonally frozen soils the organic material in sites affected by high animal activity was less de-composed than under less intensive grazing pressure. In conclusion, high animal activity af-fects decomposition processes in Arctic soils and the ground thermal regime, visible from reduced active layer depth in permafrost areas. Therefore, grazing management might be utilised to locally stabilise permafrost and reduce Arctic carbon emissions in the future, but is likely not scalable to the entire permafrost region.
Rock glaciers are permafrost or glacial landforms of debris and ice that deform under the influence of gravity. Recent estimates hold that, in the semiarid Chilean Andes for example, active rock glaciers store more water than glaciers. However, little is known about how many rock glaciers might decay because of global warming and how much this decay might contribute to water and sediment release. We investigated an inventory of >6500 rock glaciers in the Argentinian Andes, spanning the climatic gradient from the Desert Andes to cold-temperate Tierra del Fuego. We used active rock glaciers as a diagnostic of permafrost, assuming that the toes mark the 0 degrees C isotherm in climate scenarios for the twenty-first century and their impact on freezing conditions near the rock glacier toes. We find that, under future worst case warming, up to 95% of rock glaciers in the southern Desert Andes and in the Central Andes will rest in areas above 0 degrees C and that this freezing level might move up more than twice as much (similar to 500 m) as during the entire Holocene (similar to 200 m). Many active rock glaciers are already well below the current freezing level and exemplify how local controls may confound regional prognoses. A Bayesian Multifactor Analysis of Variance further shows that only in the Central Andes are the toes of active rock glaciers credibly higher than those of inactive ones. Elsewhere in the Andes, active and inactive rock glaciers occupy indistinguishable elevation bands, regardless of aspect, the formation mechanism, or shape of rock glaciers. The state of rock glacier activity predicts differences in elevations of toes to 140 m at best so that regional inference of the distribution of discontinuous permafrost from rock-glacier toes cannot be more accurate than this in the Argentinian Andes. We conclude that the Central Andes-where rock glaciers are largest, cover the most area, and have a greater density than glaciers-is likely to experience the most widespread disturbance to the thermal regime of the twenty-first century. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Permafrost, defined as ground that is frozen for at least two consecutive years, is a distinct feature of the terrestrial unglaciated Arctic. It covers approximately one quarter of the land area of the Northern Hemisphere (23,000,000 km²). Arctic landscapes, especially those underlain by permafrost, are threatened by climate warming and may degrade in different ways, including active layer deepening, thermal erosion, and development of rapid thaw features. In Siberian and Alaskan late Pleistocene ice-rich Yedoma permafrost, rapid and deep thaw processes (called thermokarst) can mobilize deep organic carbon (below 3 m depth) by surface subsidence due to loss of ground ice. Increased permafrost thaw could cause a feedback loop of global significance if its stored frozen organic carbon is reintroduced into the active carbon cycle as greenhouse gases, which accelerate warming and inducing more permafrost thaw and carbon release. To assess this concern, the major objective of the thesis was to enhance the understanding of the origin of Yedoma as well as to assess the associated organic carbon pool size and carbon quality (concerning degradability). The key research questions were:
- How did Yedoma deposits accumulate?
- How much organic carbon is stored in the Yedoma region?
- What is the susceptibility of the Yedoma region's carbon for future decomposition?
To address these three research questions, an interdisciplinary approach, including detailed field studies and sampling in Siberia and Alaska as well as methods of sedimentology, organic biogeochemistry, remote sensing, statistical analyses, and computational modeling were applied. To provide a panarctic context, this thesis additionally includes results both from a newly compiled northern circumpolar carbon database and from a model assessment of carbon fluxes in a warming Arctic.
The Yedoma samples show a homogeneous grain-size composition. All samples were poorly sorted with a multi-modal grain-size distribution, indicating various (re-) transport processes. This contradicts the popular pure loess deposition hypothesis for the origin of Yedoma permafrost. The absence of large-scale grinding processes via glaciers and ice sheets in northeast Siberian lowlands, processes which are necessary to create loess as material source, suggests the polygenetic origin of Yedoma deposits.
Based on the largest available data set of the key parameters, including organic carbon content, bulk density, ground ice content, and deposit volume (thickness and coverage) from Siberian and Alaskan study sites, this thesis further shows that deep frozen organic carbon in the Yedoma region consists of two distinct major reservoirs, Yedoma deposits and thermokarst deposits (formed in thaw-lake basins). Yedoma deposits contain ~80 Gt and thermokarst deposits ~130 Gt organic carbon, or a total of ~210 Gt. Depending on the approach used for calculating uncertainty, the range for the total Yedoma region carbon store is ±75 % and ±20 % for conservative single and multiple bootstrapping calculations, respectively. Despite the fact that these findings reduce the Yedoma region carbon pool by nearly a factor of two compared to previous estimates, this frozen organic carbon is still capable of inducing a permafrost carbon feedback to climate warming. The complete northern circumpolar permafrost region contains between 1100 and 1500 Gt organic carbon, of which ~60 % is perennially frozen and decoupled from the short-term carbon cycle.
When thawed and reintroduced into the active carbon cycle, the organic matter qualities become relevant. Furthermore, results from investigations into Yedoma and thermokarst organic matter quality studies showed that Yedoma and thermokarst organic matter exhibit no depth-dependent quality trend. This is evidence that after freezing, the ancient organic matter is preserved in a state of constant quality. The applied alkane and fatty-acid-based biomarker proxies including the carbon-preference and the higher-land-plant-fatty-acid indices show a broad range of organic matter quality and thus no significantly different qualities of the organic matter stored in thermokarst deposits compared to Yedoma deposits. This lack of quality differences shows that the organic matter biodegradability depends on different decomposition trajectories and the previous decomposition/incorporation history. Finally, the fate of the organic matter has been assessed by implementing deep carbon pools and thermokarst processes in a permafrost carbon model. Under various warming scenarios for the northern circumpolar permafrost region, model results show a carbon release from permafrost regions of up to ~140 Gt and ~310 Gt by the years 2100 and 2300, respectively. The additional warming caused by the carbon release from newly-thawed permafrost contributes 0.03 to 0.14°C by the year 2100. The model simulations predict that a further increase by the 23rd century will add 0.4°C to global mean surface air temperatures.
In conclusion, Yedoma deposit formation during the late Pleistocene was dominated by water-related (alluvial/fluvial/lacustrine) as well as aeolian processes under periglacial conditions. The circumarctic permafrost region, including the Yedoma region, contains a substantial amount of currently frozen organic carbon. The carbon of the Yedoma region is well-preserved and therefore available for decomposition after thaw. A missing quality-depth trend shows that permafrost preserves the quality of ancient organic matter. When the organic matter is mobilized by deep degradation processes, the northern permafrost region may add up to 0.4°C to the global warming by the year 2300.
The Mackenzie Delta (MD) is a permafrost-bearing region along the coasts of the Canadian Arctic which exhibits high sub-permafrost gas hydrate (GH) reserves. The GH occurring at the Mallik site in the MD is dominated by thermogenic methane (CH4), which migrated from deep conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, very likely through the present fault systems. Therefore, it is assumed that fluid flow transports dissolved CH4 upward and out of the deeper overpressurized reservoirs via the existing polygonal fault system and then forms the GH accumulations in the Kugmallit-Mackenzie Bay Sequences. We investigate the feasibility of this mechanism with a thermo-hydraulic-chemical numerical model, representing a cross section of the Mallik site. We present the first simulations that consider permafrost formation and thawing, as well as the formation of GH accumulations sourced from the upward migrating CH4-rich formation fluid. The simulation results show that temperature distribution, as well as the thickness and base of the ice-bearing permafrost are consistent with corresponding field observations. The primary driver for the spatial GH distribution is the permeability of the host sediments. Thus, the hypothesis on GH formation by dissolved CH4 originating from deeper geological reservoirs is successfully validated. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the permafrost has been substantially heated to 0.8-1.3 degrees C, triggered by the global temperature increase of about 0.44 degrees C and further enhanced by the Arctic Amplification effect at the Mallik site from the early 1970s to the mid-2000s.
Permafrost is warming in the northern high latitudes, inducing highly dynamic thaw-related permafrost disturbances across the terrestrial Arctic. Monitoring and tracking of permafrost disturbances is important as they impact surrounding landscapes, ecosystems and infrastructure. Remote sensing provides the means to detect, map, and quantify these changes homogeneously across large regions and time scales. Existing Landsat-based algorithms assess different types of disturbances with similar spatiotemporal requirements. However, Landsat-based analyses are restricted in northern high latitudes due to the long repeat interval and frequent clouds, in particular at Arctic coastal sites. We therefore propose to combine Landsat and Sentinel-2 data for enhanced data coverage and present a combined annual mosaic workflow, expanding currently available algorithms, such as LandTrendr, to achieve more reliable time series analysis. We exemplary test the workflow for twelve sites across the northern high latitudes in Siberia. We assessed the number of images and cloud-free pixels, the spatial mosaic coverage and the mosaic quality with spectral comparisons. The number of available images increased steadily from 1999 to 2019 but especially from 2016 onward with the addition of Sentinel-2 images. Consequently, we have an increased number of cloud-free pixels even under challenging environmental conditions, which then serve as the input to the mosaicking process. In a comparison of annual mosaics, the Landsat+Sentinel-2 mosaics always fully covered the study areas (99.9–100 %), while Landsat-only mosaics contained data-gaps in the same years, only reaching coverage percentages of 27.2 %, 58.1 %, and 69.7 % for Sobo Sise, East Taymyr, and Kurungnakh in 2017, respectively. The spectral comparison of Landsat image, Sentinel-2 image, and Landsat+Sentinel-2 mosaic showed high correlation between the input images and mosaic bands (e.g., for Kurungnakh 0.91–0.97 between Landsat and Landsat+Sentinel-2 mosaic and 0.92–0.98 between Sentinel-2 and Landsat+Sentinel-2 mosaic) across all twelve study sites, testifying good quality mosaic results. Our results show that especially the results for northern, coastal areas was substantially improved with the Landsat+Sentinel-2 mosaics. By combining Landsat and Sentinel-2 data we accomplished to create reliably high spatial resolution input mosaics for time series analyses. Our approach allows to apply a high temporal continuous time series analysis to northern high latitude permafrost regions for the first time, overcoming substantial data gaps, and assess permafrost disturbance dynamics on an annual scale across large regions with algorithms such as LandTrendr by deriving the location, timing and progression of permafrost thaw disturbances
Permafrost is warming in the northern high latitudes, inducing highly dynamic thaw-related permafrost disturbances across the terrestrial Arctic. Monitoring and tracking of permafrost disturbances is important as they impact surrounding landscapes, ecosystems and infrastructure. Remote sensing provides the means to detect, map, and quantify these changes homogeneously across large regions and time scales. Existing Landsat-based algorithms assess different types of disturbances with similar spatiotemporal requirements. However, Landsat-based analyses are restricted in northern high latitudes due to the long repeat interval and frequent clouds, in particular at Arctic coastal sites. We therefore propose to combine Landsat and Sentinel-2 data for enhanced data coverage and present a combined annual mosaic workflow, expanding currently available algorithms, such as LandTrendr, to achieve more reliable time series analysis. We exemplary test the workflow for twelve sites across the northern high latitudes in Siberia. We assessed the number of images and cloud-free pixels, the spatial mosaic coverage and the mosaic quality with spectral comparisons. The number of available images increased steadily from 1999 to 2019 but especially from 2016 onward with the addition of Sentinel-2 images. Consequently, we have an increased number of cloud-free pixels even under challenging environmental conditions, which then serve as the input to the mosaicking process. In a comparison of annual mosaics, the Landsat+Sentinel-2 mosaics always fully covered the study areas (99.9–100 %), while Landsat-only mosaics contained data-gaps in the same years, only reaching coverage percentages of 27.2 %, 58.1 %, and 69.7 % for Sobo Sise, East Taymyr, and Kurungnakh in 2017, respectively. The spectral comparison of Landsat image, Sentinel-2 image, and Landsat+Sentinel-2 mosaic showed high correlation between the input images and mosaic bands (e.g., for Kurungnakh 0.91–0.97 between Landsat and Landsat+Sentinel-2 mosaic and 0.92–0.98 between Sentinel-2 and Landsat+Sentinel-2 mosaic) across all twelve study sites, testifying good quality mosaic results. Our results show that especially the results for northern, coastal areas was substantially improved with the Landsat+Sentinel-2 mosaics. By combining Landsat and Sentinel-2 data we accomplished to create reliably high spatial resolution input mosaics for time series analyses. Our approach allows to apply a high temporal continuous time series analysis to northern high latitude permafrost regions for the first time, overcoming substantial data gaps, and assess permafrost disturbance dynamics on an annual scale across large regions with algorithms such as LandTrendr by deriving the location, timing and progression of permafrost thaw disturbances
Despite general concern that the massive deposits of methane stored under permafrost underground and undersea could be released into the atmosphere due to rising temperatures attributed to global climate change, little is known about the methanogenic microorganisms in permafrost sediments, their role in methane emissions, and their phylogeny. The aim of this thesis was to increase knowledge of uncultivated methanogenic microorganisms in submarine and terrestrial permafrost deposits, their community composition, the role they play with regard to methane emissions, and their phylogeny. It is assumed that methanogenic communities in warmer submarine permafrost may serve as a model to anticipate the response of methanogenic communities in colder terrestrial permafrost to rising temperatures. The compositions of methanogenic communities were examined in terrestrial and submarine permafrost sediment samples. The submarine permafrost studied in this research was 10°C warmer than the terrestrial permafrost. By polymerase chain reaction (PCR), DNA was extracted from each of the samples and analyzed by molecular microbiological methods such as PCR-DGGE, RT-PCR, and cloning. Furthermore, these samples were used for in vitro experiment and FISH. The submarine permafrost analysis of the isotope composition of CH4 suggested a relationship between methane content and in situ active methanogenesis. Furthermore, active methanogenesis was proven using 13C-isotope measurements of methane in submarine permafrost sediment with a high TOC value and a high methane concentration. In the molecular-microbiological studies uncultivated lines of Methanosarcina, Methanomicrobiales, Methanobacteriacea and the Groups 1.3 and Marine Benthic from Crenarchaeota were found in all submarine and terrestrial permafrost samples. Methanosarcina was the dominant group of the Archaea in all submarine and terrestrial permafrost samples. The archaeal community composition, in particular, the methanogenic community composition showed diversity with changes in temperatures. Furthermore, cell count of methanogens in submarine permafrost was 10 times higher than in terrestrial permafrost. In vitro experiments showed that methanogens adapt quickly and well to higher temperatures. If temperatures rise due to climate change, an increase in methanogenic activity can be expected as long as organic material is sufficiently available and qualitatively adequate.
Subsea permafrost is perennially cryotic earth material that lies offshore. Most submarine permafrost is relict terrestrial permafrost beneath the Arctic shelf seas, was inundated after the last glaciation, and has been warming and thawing ever since. It is a reservoir and confining layer for gas hydrates and has the potential to release greenhouse gases and affect global climate change. Furthermore, subsea permafrost thaw destabilizes coastal infrastructure. While numerous studies focus on its distribution and rate of thaw over glacial timescales, these studies have not been brought together and examined in their entirety to assess rates of thaw beneath the Arctic Ocean. In addition, there is still a large gap in our understanding of sub-aquatic permafrost processes on finer spatial and temporal scales. The degradation rate of subsea permafrost is influenced by the initial conditions upon submergence. Terrestrial permafrost that has already undergone warming, partial thawing or loss of ground ice may react differently to inundation by seawater compared to previously undisturbed ice-rich permafrost. Heat conduction models are sufficient to model the thaw of thick subsea permafrost from the bottom, but few studies have included salt diffusion for top-down chemical degradation in shallow waters characterized by mean annual cryotic conditions on the seabed. Simulating salt transport is critical for assessing degradation rates for recently inundated permafrost, which may accelerate in response to warming shelf waters, a lengthening open water season, and faster coastal erosion rates. In the nearshore zone, degradation rates are also controlled by seasonal processes like bedfast ice, brine injection, seasonal freezing under floating ice conditions and warm freshwater discharge from large rivers. The interplay of all these variables is complex and needs further research. To fill this knowledge gap, this thesis investigates sub-aquatic permafrost along the southern coast of the Bykovsky Peninsula in eastern Siberia. Sediment cores and ground temperature profiles were collected at a freshwater thermokarst lake and two thermokarst lagoons in 2017. At this site, the coastline is retreating, and seawater is inundating various types of permafrost: sections of ice-rich Pleistocene permafrost (Yedoma) cliffs at the coastline alternate with lagoons and lower elevation previously thawed and refrozen permafrost basins (Alases). Electrical resistivity surveys with floating electrodes were carried out to map ice-bearing permafrost and taliks (unfrozen zones in the permafrost, usually formed beneath lakes) along the diverse coastline and in the lagoons. Combined with the borehole data, the electrical resistivity results permit estimation of contemporary ice-bearing permafrost characteristics, distribution, and occasionally, thickness. To conceptualize possible geomorphological and marine evolutionary pathways to the formation of the observed layering, numerical models were applied. The developed model incorporates salt diffusion and seasonal dynamics at the seabed, including bedfast ice. Even along coastlines with mean annual non-cryotic boundary conditions like the Bykovsky Peninsula, the modelling results show that salt diffusion minimizes seasonal freezing of the seabed, leading to faster degradation rates compared to models without salt diffusion. Seasonal processes are also important for thermokarst lake to lagoon transitions because lagoons can generate cold hypersaline conditions underneath the ice cover. My research suggests that ice-bearing permafrost can form in a coastal lagoon environment, even under floating ice. Alas basins, however, may degrade more than twice as fast as Yedoma permafrost in the first several decades of inundation. In addition to a lower ice content compared to Yedoma permafrost, Alas basins may be pre-conditioned with salt from adjacent lagoons. Considering the widespread distribution of thermokarst in the Arctic, its integration into geophysical models and offshore surveys is important to quantify and understand subsea permafrost degradation and aggradation. Through numerical modelling, fieldwork, and a circum-Arctic review of subsea permafrost literature, this thesis provides new insights into sub-aquatic permafrost evolution in saline coastal environments.