Filtern
Erscheinungsjahr
- 2003 (175) (entfernen)
Dokumenttyp
- Dissertation (175) (entfernen)
Sprache
- Deutsch (130)
- Englisch (44)
- Französisch (1)
Gehört zur Bibliographie
- ja (175) (entfernen)
Schlagworte
- Klima (2)
- climate (2)
- 'Reduced-Form' Modellierung (1)
- 'coupling sensitivity' (1)
- 2D (1)
- AT1 receptor / preeclampsia / AT1-AAB / neonatal rat cardiomyocytes / autoantibody / angiotensin II (1)
- AT1-Rezeptor / Präeklampsie / AT1-AAK / neonatale Rattenkardiomyozyten / Autoantikörper / Angiotensin II (1)
- Abflußentwicklung (1)
- Acetylacetonat (1)
- Africa (1)
Institut
- Institut für Physik und Astronomie (23)
- Institut für Biochemie und Biologie (22)
- Institut für Chemie (18)
- Wirtschaftswissenschaften (12)
- Öffentliches Recht (11)
- Institut für Ernährungswissenschaft (9)
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (9)
- Bürgerliches Recht (8)
- Department Sport- und Gesundheitswissenschaften (8)
- Historisches Institut (8)
This work incorporates three treatises which are commonly concerned with a stochastic theory of the Lyapunov exponents. With the help of this theory universal scaling laws are investigated which appear in coupled chaotic and disordered systems. First, two continuous-time stochastic models for weakly coupled chaotic systems are introduced to study the scaling of the Lyapunov exponents with the coupling strength (coupling sensitivity of chaos). By means of the the Fokker-Planck formalism scaling relations are derived, which are confirmed by results of numerical simulations. Next, coupling sensitivity is shown to exist for coupled disordered chains, where it appears as a singular increase of the localization length. Numerical findings for coupled Anderson models are confirmed by analytic results for coupled continuous-space Schrödinger equations. The resulting scaling relation of the localization length resembles the scaling of the Lyapunov exponent of coupled chaotic systems. Finally, the statistics of the exponential growth rate of the linear oscillator with parametric noise are studied. It is shown that the distribution of the finite-time Lyapunov exponent deviates from a Gaussian one. By means of the generalized Lyapunov exponents the parameter range is determined where the non-Gaussian part of the distribution is significant and multiscaling becomes essential.
Concerns have been raised that anthropogenic climate change could lead to large-scale singular climate events, i.e., abrupt nonlinear climate changes with repercussions on regional to global scales. One central goal of this thesis is the development of models of two representative components of the climate system that could exhibit singular behavior: the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and the Indian monsoon. These models are conceived so as to fulfill the main requirements of integrated assessment modeling, i.e., reliability, computational efficiency, transparency and flexibility. The model of the THC is an interhemispheric four-box model calibrated against data generated with a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. It is designed to be driven by global mean temperature change which is translated into regional fluxes of heat and freshwater through a linear down-scaling procedure. Results of a large number of transient climate change simulations indicate that the reduced-form THC model is able to emulate key features of the behavior of comprehensive climate models such as the sensitivity of the THC to the amount, regional distribution and rate of change in the heat and freshwater fluxes. The Indian monsoon is described by a novel one-dimensional box model of the tropical atmosphere. It includes representations of the radiative and surface fluxes, the hydrological cycle and surface hydrology. Despite its high degree of idealization, the model satisfactorily captures relevant aspects of the observed monsoon dynamics, such as the annual course of precipitation and the onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon. Also, the model exhibits the sensitivity to changes in greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol concentrations that are known from comprehensive models. A simplified version of the monsoon model is employed for the identification of changes in the qualitative system behavior against changes in boundary conditions. The most notable result is that under summer conditions a saddle-node bifurcation occurs at critical values of the planetary albedo or insolation. Furthermore, the system exhibits two stable equilibria: besides the wet summer monsoon, a stable state exists which is characterized by a weak hydrological cycle. These results are remarkable insofar, as they indicate that anthropogenic perturbations of the planetary albedo such as sulfur emissions and/or land-use changes could destabilize the Indian summer monsoon. The reduced-form THC model is employed in an exemplary integrated assessment application. Drawing on the conceptual and methodological framework of the tolerable windows approach, emissions corridors (i.e., admissible ranges of CO2- emissions) are derived that limit the risk of a THC collapse while considering expectations about the socio-economically acceptable pace of emissions reductions. Results indicate, for example, a large dependency of the width of the emissions corridor on climate and hydrological sensitivity: for low values of climate and/or hydrological sensitivity, the corridor boundaries are far from being transgressed by any plausible emissions scenario for the 21st century. In contrast, for high values of both quantities low non-intervention scenarios leave the corridor already in the early decades of the 21st century. This implies that if the risk of a THC collapse is to be kept low, business-as-usual paths would need to be abandoned within the next two decades. All in all, this thesis highlights the value of reduced-form modeling by presenting a number of applications of this class of models, ranging from sensitivity and bifurcation analysis to integrated assessment. The results achieved and conclusions drawn provide a useful contribution to the scientific and policy debate about the consequences of anthropogenic climate change and the long-term goals of climate protection. --- Anmerkung: Die Autorin ist Trägerin des von der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Potsdam vergebenen Michelson-Preises für die beste Promotion des Jahres 2003/2004.
Nach einem Rekurs über den Utopiebegriff wurden sowohl im diarischen Werk als auch in der veröffentlichten Prosa Brigitte Reimanns utopische Konzeptionen aufgespürt. Gesucht wurde das Utopische sowohl in den Beschreibungen einer konkreten Gesellschaftsutopie, als auch in den literarischen „Verfeinerungen“ einer kruden Ideologie, wie im kritischen Hinterfragen des „Noch-Nicht-Bewussten“ (Ernst Bloch). Als ästhetische Utopien wurden auch Wunschbilder des Alltags, Träume, Märchen und Mythen gedeutet. Ausführliche Untersuchungen beschäftigten sich mit der Gestaltung der weiblichen Figuren und ihrer Entwicklung von der ideologisch (auch männlich) indoktrinierten Protagonistin zur „freien“ Ich–Gestalterin. Nachgewiesen wurde sowohl im diarischen Werk, als auch in der veröffentlichten Prosa eine Wandlung des Utopieverständnisses von der Gesellschaftsutopie zur subjektiven „Augenblicksutopie“, die im Deutungshorizont der Literatur der Romantik auch als DDR-spezifische Innerlichkeit verstanden werden könnte, welche mit ihrem Rückzug ins Individuelle die ritualisierte DDR-Öffentlichkeit desavouierte.
Der "Leukocyte Receptor Complex" (LRC) ist ein DNA-Sequenzabschnitt auf dem Chromosom 19 des Menschen, der eine Länge von über 900.000 Basenpaaren umfaßt. In diesem Chromosomenabschnitt ist eine Vielzahl von Genen lokalisiert, die für die Funktion verschiedener weißer Blutzellen (Leukozyten) von entscheidender Bedeutung sind. Bei den aus diesen Genen synthetisierten Proteinen (Eiweißen) handelt es sich um Strukturen, die auf der Oberfläche dieser Zellen lokalisiert sind und zur Interaktion der Leukozyten mit ihrer Umgebung dienen. Diese auch als Rezeptoren bezeichneten Proteine können mit Oberflächenproteinen auf anderen Körperzellen wechselwirken und daraus resultierende Signale in das Innere der Blutzelle weiterleiten. In der vorliegenden Doktorarbeit wurde der LRC im Detail untersucht. Hierzu wurde zunächst der gesamte Chromosomenabschnitt aus kleineren, einander überlappenden DNA-Fragmenten rekonstruiert. Aufgrund der in diesen DNA-Fragmenten enthaltenen DNA-Sequenzen war es möglich, den gesamten Chromosomenabschnitt ähnlich einem Puzzle zusammenzusetzen. Die anschließende Analyse des LRC zeigte, daß sich dieser in drei Bereiche, sogenannte Cluster, unterteilen läßt. Diese Cluster sind dadurch gekennzeichnet, daß in ihnen jeweils nur Gene eines Rezeptortyps vorkommen. Hierbei handelt es sich um ‚immunoglobulin-like transcript′ -Gene (ILT) und ‚killer cell Ig-like receptor′-Gene (KIR). Die KIR- und ILT-Cluster werden von weiteren stammesgeschichtlich verwandten Genen unterbrochen und flankiert. Je nach Individuum können im LRC bis zu 31 solcher verwandten Rezeptorgene lokalisiert sein. Auf der Grundlage der Kartierungsdaten und von Daten des humanen Genomprojekts war es zudem möglich, evolutionäre Untersuchungen zur Entwicklung des LRC durchzuführen. Dabei wurde eine Hypothese zur Entstehung des LRC entworfen und zu anderen Spezies in Beziehung gesetzt. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit habe ich aufbauend auf der sogenannten HRCA-Methode eine Technik entwickelt, die es erlaubt kleinste Unterschiede zwischen DNA-Sequenzen, sogenannte Einzelbasenpaaraustausche, nachzuweisen. Die entwickelte Methode kann verwendet werden, um sehr ähnliche DNA-Sequenzen, wie z.B. verschiedene KIR-Sequenzen, zu unterscheiden und ihre Menge zu bestimmen. Sie ist außerdem geeignet Mutationen, die mit bestimmten Krankheiten assoziiert sind, nachzuweisen und könnte somit in der Diagnostik Anwendung finden.
Interpretation of and reasoning with conditionals : probabilities, mental models, and causality
(2003)
In everyday conversation "if" is one of the most frequently used conjunctions. This dissertation investigates what meaning an everyday conditional transmits and what inferences it licenses. It is suggested that the nature of the relation between the two propositions in a conditional might play a major role for both questions. Thus, in the experiments reported here conditional statements that describe a causal relationship (e.g., "If you touch that wire, you will receive an electric shock") were compared to arbitrary conditional statements in which there is no meaningful relation between the antecedent and the consequent proposition (e.g., "If Napoleon is dead, then Bristol is in England"). Initially, central assumptions from several approaches to the meaning and the reasoning from causal conditionals will be integrated into a common model. In the model the availability of exceptional situations that have the power to generate exceptions to the rule described in the conditional (e.g., the electricity is turned off), reduces the subjective conditional probability of the consequent, given the antecedent (e.g., the probability of receiving an electric shock when touching the wire). This conditional probability determines people's degree of belief in the conditional, which in turn affects their willingness to accept valid inferences (e.g., "Peter touches the wire, therefore he receives an electric shock") in a reasoning task. Additionally to this indirect pathway, the model contains a direct pathway: Cognitive availability of exceptional situations directly reduces the readiness to accept valid conclusions. The first experimental series tested the integrated model for conditional statements embedded in pseudo-natural cover stories that either established a causal relation between the antecedent and the consequent event (causal conditionals) or did not connect the propositions in a meaningful way (arbitrary conditionals). The model was supported for the causal, but not for the arbitrary conditional statements. Furthermore, participants assigned lower degrees of belief to arbitrary than to causal conditionals. Is this effect due to the presence versus absence of a semantic link between antecedent and consequent in the conditionals? This question was one of the starting points for the second experimental series. Here, the credibility of the conditionals was manipulated by adding explicit frequency information about possible combinations of presence or absence of antecedent and consequent events to the problems (i.e., frequencies of cases of 1. true antecedent with true consequent, 2. true antecedent with false consequent, 3. false antecedent with true consequent, 4. false antecedent with false consequent). This paradigm allows testing different approaches to the meaning of conditionals (Experiment 4) as well as theories of conditional reasoning against each other (Experiment 5). The results of Experiment 4 supported mainly the conditional probability approach to the meaning of conditionals (Edgington, 1995) according to which the degree of belief a listener has in a conditional statement equals the conditional probability that the consequent is true given the antecedent (e.g., the probability of receiving an electric shock when touching the wire). Participants again assigned lower degrees of belief to the arbitrary than the causal conditionals, although the conditional probability of the consequent given the antecedent was held constant within every condition of explicit frequency information. This supports the hypothesis that the mere presence of a causal link enhances the believability of a conditional statement. In Experiment 5 participants solved conditional reasoning tasks from problems that contained explicit frequency information about possible relevant cases. The data favored the probabilistic approach to conditional reasoning advanced by Oaksford, Chater, and Larkin (2000). The two experimental series reported in this dissertation provide strong support for recent probabilistic theories: for the conditional probability approach to the meaning of conditionals by Edgington (1995) and the probabilistic approach to conditional reasoning by Oaksford et al. (2000). In the domain of conditional reasoning, there was additionally support for the modified mental model approaches by Markovits and Barrouillet (2002) and Schroyens and Schaeken (2003). Probabilistic and mental model approaches could be reconciled within a dual-process-model as suggested by Verschueren, Schaeken, and d'Ydewalle (2003).