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Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate.
Strategic label
(2020)
The Afropolitan Berlin novel Biskaya by SchwarzRund (2016) is probably the first novel written in German which demonstratively wears this label – on the front cover of the book, the author announces it to be an Afropolitaner Berlin Roman underneath the title. While addressing quite a few particulars of the Berlin-Brandenburg area, the novel writes itself willingly into the globally popular, yet controversial realm of African inflected cosmopolitanism. In this essay, I will argue that the author uses the label strategically to negotiate the global and the local – or worldliness and cultural specificity – with the aim to increase the visibility of queer of Color critique in Germany.
SchwarzRund’s approach may seem contradictory at first: Even though she could have called her novel queer, neuro-diverse, diasporic or Black, she chose Afropolitan. While she wrote an outspokenly political novel, she labeled it with a term often critically denounced as apolitical. Using Afropolitanism, she seems to aim at a rather mainstream audience, but at the same time, she published with a small, activist publishing house. While attempting to tap into the transnational cultural and literary capital of Afropolitanism, the language of the book is German and restricts it to the German-speaking parts of the world.
This essay will explore the Afropolitanism depicted in Biskaya and elaborate on the strategic choice of label. I will offer one possible interpretation of the characters and settings which illustrate SchwarzRund’s vision and version of Afropolitanism. In my analyses, I am interested in political questions around the characters’ identities and the setting. The Black protagonists of the novel, Tue and Dwayne, live in Berlin, but grew up on the fictional island Biskaya. This island is located somewhere close to the European mainland and part of the continent; it had an entirely Black population until a destructive event forced many to move to the mainland. The protagonists, now living in a mainly white society, are depicted in a state of interrogation of their own sense of self, measuring oppressive societal norms against other possible ways of interaction. The novel shows how people are deemed strange and not fitting into a network of unspoken rules because of racialized bodies, sexual preferences and#shor lifestyle choices. However, SchwarzRund counters those structures of inequality with her characters’ playful ways to deal with queerness, femininity and blackness subverting imposed norms. The novel challenges imperatives of subordination, creates new visions and inscribes Black Germans as political subjects.
Contemporary drought impact assessments have been constrained due to data availability, leading to an incomplete representation of impact trends. To address this, we present a novel method for the comprehensive and near-real-time monitoring of drought socio-economic impacts based on media reports. We tested its application using the case of the exceptional 2018/19 German drought. By employing text mining techniques, 4839 impact statements were identified, relating to livestock, agriculture, forestry, fires, recreation, energy and transport sectors. An accuracy of 95.6% was obtained for their automatic classification. Furthermore, high levels of performance in terms of spatial and temporal precision were found when validating our results against independent data (e.g. soil moisture, average precipitation, population interest in droughts, crop yield and forest fire statistics). The findings highlight the applicability of media data for rapidly and accurately monitoring the propagation of drought consequences over time and space. We anticipate our method to be used as a starting point for an impact-based early warning system.
Large-scale crop yield failures are increasingly associated with food price spikes and food insecurity and are a large source of income risk for farmers. While the evidence linking extreme weather to yield failures is clear, consensus on the broader set of weather drivers and conditions responsible for recent yield failures is lacking. We investigate this for the case of four major crops in Germany over the past 20 years using a combination of machine learning and process-based modelling. Our results confirm that years associated with widespread yield failures across crops were generally associated with severe drought, such as in 2018 and to a lesser extent 2003. However, for years with more localized yield failures and large differences in spatial patterns of yield failures between crops, no single driver or combination of drivers was identified. Relatively large residuals of unexplained variation likely indicate the importance of non-weather related factors, such as management (pest, weed and nutrient management and possible interactions with weather) explaining yield failures. Models to inform adaptation planning at farm, market or policy levels are here suggested to require consideration of cumulative resource capture and use, as well as effects of extreme events, the latter largely missing in process-based models. However, increasingly novel combinations of weather events under climate change may limit the extent to which data driven methods can replace process-based models in risk assessments.
An increase in zoonotic infections in humans in recent years has led to a high level of public interest. However, the extent of infestation of free-living small mammals with pathogens and especially parasites is not well understood. This pilot study was carried out within the framework of the "Rodent-borne pathogens" network to identify zoonotic parasites in small mammals in Germany. From 2008 to 2009, 111 small mammals of 8 rodent and 5 insectivore species were collected. Feces and intestine samples from every mammal were examined microscopically for the presence of intestinal parasites by using Telemann concentration for worm eggs, Kinyoun staining for coccidia, and Heidenhain staining for other protozoa. Adult helminths were additionally stained with carmine acid for species determination. Eleven different helminth species, five coccidians, and three other protozoa species were detected. Simultaneous infection of one host by different helminths was common. Hymenolepis spp. (20.7%) were the most common zoonotic helminths in the investigated hosts. Coccidia, including Eimeria spp. (30.6%), Cryptosporidium spp. (17.1%), and Sarcocystis spp. (17.1%), were present in 40.5% of the feces samples of small mammals. Protozoa, such as Giardia spp. and amoebae, were rarely detected, most likely because of the repeated freeze-thawing of the samples during preparation. The zoonotic pathogens detected in this pilot study may be potentially transmitted to humans by drinking water, smear infection, and airborne transmission.
We examined whether German adolescents who participated in an adapted 8-week school-based intervention, the Identity Project, reported greater changes in heritage and global identities and perceptions of classroom cultural climate. We used a longitudinal, wait-list control design pooling eight classrooms across the school years of 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. The sample included 195 seventh graders (M-age = 12.35 years, SD =.79, 39% female, 83% of migration background). Findings showed moderate support for more heritage identity exploration and greater perceptions of unequal treatment and critical consciousness climate in the intervention group. There were also important differences across conditions regarding how identity and climate related to adolescent outcomes. We conclude that the Identity Project can be adapted and applied in other cultural contexts such as Germany. It provides a necessary space for adolescents to engage in discussions about diversity, cultural heritage, social inequities, and their relevance to one's identities.
We examined whether German adolescents who participated in an adapted 8-week school-based intervention, the Identity Project, reported greater changes in heritage and global identities and perceptions of classroom cultural climate. We used a longitudinal, wait-list control design pooling eight classrooms across the school years of 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. The sample included 195 seventh graders (M-age = 12.35 years, SD =.79, 39% female, 83% of migration background). Findings showed moderate support for more heritage identity exploration and greater perceptions of unequal treatment and critical consciousness climate in the intervention group. There were also important differences across conditions regarding how identity and climate related to adolescent outcomes. We conclude that the Identity Project can be adapted and applied in other cultural contexts such as Germany. It provides a necessary space for adolescents to engage in discussions about diversity, cultural heritage, social inequities, and their relevance to one's identities.
River floods are among the most damaging natural hazards that frequently occur in Germany. Flooding causes high economic losses and impacts many residents. In 2016, several southern German municipalities were hit by flash floods after unexpectedly severe heavy rainfall, while in 2013 widespread river flooding had occurred. This study investigates and compares the psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods and potential consequences for precautionary behaviour. Data were collected using computer-aided telephone interviews that were conducted among flood-affected households around 9 months after each damaging event. This study applies Bayesian statistics and negative binomial regressions to test the suitability of psychological indicators to predict the precaution motivation of individuals. The results show that it is not the particular flood type but rather the severity and local impacts of the event that are crucial for the different, and potentially negative, impacts on mental health. According to the used data, however, predictions of the individual precaution motivation should not be based on the derived psychological indicators – i.e. coping appraisal, threat appraisal, burden and evasion – since their explanatory power was generally low and results are, for the most part, non-significant. Only burden reveals a significant positive relation to planned precaution regarding weak flash floods. In contrast to weak flash floods and river floods, the perceived threat of strong flash floods is significantly lower although feelings of burden and lower coping appraisals are more pronounced. Further research is needed to better include psychological assessment procedures and to focus on alternative data sources regarding floods and the connected precaution motivation of affected residents.
Firms engage in forecasting and foresight activities to predict the future or explore possible future states of the business environment in order to pre-empt and shape it (corporate foresight). Similarly, the dynamic capabilities approach addresses relevant firm capabilities to adapt to fast change in an environment that threatens a firm’s competitiveness and survival. However, despite these conceptual similarities, their relationship remains opaque. To close this gap, we conduct qualitative interviews with foresight experts as an exploratory study. Our results show that foresight and dynamic capabilities aim at an organizational renewal to meet future challenges. Foresight can be regarded as a specific activity that corresponds with the sensing process of dynamic capabilities. The experts disagree about the relationship between foresight and sensing and see no direct links with transformation. However, foresight can better inform post-sensing activities and, therefore, indirectly contribute to the adequate reconfiguration of the resource base, an increased innovativeness, and firm performance.
Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming
(2020)
Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.
Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability.
Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise.
Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.
The chapter begins with a brief historical overview of Germany’s transition in the twentieth and twenty-first century from a transit and emigration country to one of immigration. The next part of this chapter looks at the challenges and problems facing German immigration policy within a multi-level federal system. Finally, the chapter gives an analysis of some of the trends in German migration policy since the refugee crisis in 2015, such as changes in the party system and in the concepts underlying migration policies to better manage, control and limit immigration to Germany.
When the "Ostjuden" returned
(2021)
This article examines the dynamics that allowed the derogatory term "Ostjuden" to reappear in academic writing in post-Holocaust Germany. This article focuses on the period between 1980's and 2000's, complementing earlier studies that focused on the emergence of the term "Ostjuden" and on the complex representations of Eastern European Jews in Imperial and later Weimar Germany. It shows that, despite its well-evidenced discriminatory history, the term "Ostjuden" re-appeared in the scholarly writing in German and has also found its way into German-speaking public history and journalism. This article calls for applying the adjectival term "osteuropaische Juden" (Eastern European Jews), using a term that neither essentializes Eastern European Jews nor presents them in an oversimplified and uniform manner.
Digital government constitutes the most important trend of post-NPM reforms at the local level. Based on the results of a research project on local one-stop shops, this article analyses the current state of digitalization in German local authorities. The authors explain the hurdles of implementation as well as the impact on staff members and citizens, providing explanations and revealing general interrelations between institutional changes, impacts, and context factors of digital transformation.
Sexual scripts serve as cognitive representations of typical elements of sexual interactions that guide sexual behavior. To the extent that cognitive scripts for consensual sex comprise elements associated with a risk of experiencing nonconsensual sex, they may be indirectly linked to sexual victimization via risky sexual behavior. A longitudinal study with 2,425 college students in Germany (58% female) examined pathways from sexual scripts for consensual sex, sexual behavior, and sexual victimization over three data waves separated by 12-month intervals. Sexual scripts and behavior were defined as risky to the extent that they include known vulnerability factors for sexual victimization (casual sex, alcohol consumption, ambiguous communication of sexual intentions). Path analyses confirmed that more risky sexual scripts prospectively predicted more risky sexual behavior, which predicted higher odds of sexual victimization. The findings held for men and women and participants with exclusively opposite-sex and both same- and opposite-sex contacts. Moreover, reciprocal influences between risky scripts and risky sexual behavior were found over time, confirming the proposed mutual reinforcement of scripts and behavior. The findings have implications for conceptualizing the role of scripts for consensual sex as vulnerability factors for sexual victimization among women and men and may inform intervention efforts.
Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data.
Cities can be severely affected by climate change. Hence, many of them have started to develop climate adaptation strategies or implement measures to help prepare for the challenges it will present. This study aims to provide an overview of climate adaptation in 104 German cities. While existing studies on adaptation tracking rely heavily on self-reported data or the mere existence of adaptation plans, we applied the broader concept of adaptation readiness, considering five factors and a total of twelve different indicators, when making our assessments. We clustered the cities depending on the contribution of these factors to the overall adaptation readiness index and grouped them according to their total score and cluster affiliations. This resulted in us identifying four groups of cities. First, a pioneering group comprises twelve (mainly big) cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants, which showed high scores for all five factors of adaptation readiness. Second, a set of 36 active cities, which follow different strategies on how to deal with climate adaptation. Third, a group of 28 cities showed considerably less activity toward climate adaptation, while a fourth set of 28 mostly small cities (with between 50,000 and 99,999 inhabitants) scored the lowest. We consider this final group to be pursuing a 'wait-and-see' approach. Since the city size correlates with the adaptation readiness index, we recommend policymakers introduce funding schemes that focus on supporting small cities, to help them prepare for the impact of a changing climate.
In this article, I give an overview on nativist street protests in Germany from the early nineteenth century to the present from an historical perspective. In a preliminary re-mark, I will reflect on some recent developments in Germany, where nativist protest campaigns against immigration took place in the streets when voters were turning towards the populist radical right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). In the first section, I will outline an older tradition of anti-immigration protest in nineteenth and early twentieth century Germany, which is closely connected to modern antisemitism. In sections two and three, I will retrace how, from the late 1960s onward, the far right in the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) discovered concerns about immigra-tion in the German population, addressed them in protest campaigns and developed narratives to integrate such sentiments into a broader right-wing extremist ideology, itself deeply rooted in antisemitism. Studying nativism and the radical right from an actor-oriented perspective, I will focus on traditionalist movements, including the Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands (NPD) and neo-Nazi groups.
Die vorliegende Research Note stellt die erste systematische Dokumentation der Gesetzgebung in den deutschen Landtagen vor. Der Datensatz umfasst insgesamt 16.610 dokumentierte Gesetzgebungsvorgänge zwischen den Jahren 1990 und 2020. Nach einer Beschreibung des Datensatzes werden einige Gesetzgebungsmuster in den deutschen Ländern exemplarisch dargestellt. Die Landesgesetzgebung erweist sich dabei als stark durch den neuen Dualismus zwischen Regierung und Opposition geprägt. Im Initiativverhalten lassen sich zudem die Anreize des thematischen Parteienwettbewerbs ablesen. Wenig Evidenz findet sich für die These, dass innerkoalitionäre Gegensätze die Dauer der Gesetzgebungsverfahren in die Länge ziehen. Der mit dieser Research Note veröffentlichte Datensatz steht der Forschung für die Untersuchung zahlreicher weiterer Fragestellungen zur Verfügung.
Ethnic-racial identity (ERI) is an important aspect of youth development and has been well-studied for the last several decades. One issue less discussed is how the construct of ERI translates across different countries and cultures. The purpose of our paper is to describe the sociohistorical context of Germany and implications for the study of ethnic-racial identity in Europe. We discuss the German adaption of the Identity Project, an 8-week school-based ethnic-racial identity exploration intervention developed in the United States. We use this as a concrete example of how we thought through the focal construct of ERI to figure out how and whether it is a salient social identity category for youth in Germany where, in response to the history of racially motivated genocide, discussions of "race" are taboo. Digging into the ways ERI may not be directly transferable to different contexts can help us understand its nature as a socially constructed identity with real-life implications. Our hope with this paper is to further discussion, question our conceptualizations, and acknowledge how a detailed understanding of sociohistorical contexts is needed for the study of ERI.
Ranking local climate policy
(2021)
Climate mitigation and climate adaptation are crucial tasks for urban areas and can involve synergies as well as trade-offs. However, few studies have examined how mitigation and adaptation efforts relate to each other in a large number of differently sized cities, and therefore we know little about whether forerunners in mitigation are also leading in adaptation or if cities tend to focus on just one policy field. This article develops an internationally applicable approach to rank cities on climate policy that incorporates multiple indicators related to (1) local commitments on mitigation and adaptation, (2) urban mitigation and adaptation plans and (3) climate adaptation and mitigation ambitions. We apply this method to rank 104 differently sized German cities and identify six clusters: climate policy leaders, climate adaptation leaders, climate mitigation leaders, climate policy followers, climate policy latecomers and climate policy laggards. The article seeks explanations for particular cities' positions and shows that coping with climate change in a balanced way on a high level depends on structural factors, in particular city size, the pathways of local climate policies since the 1990s and funding programmes for both climate mitigation and adaptation.