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Previous studies suggested that electric and/or magnetic field fluctuations observed in the nighttime topside ionosphere at midlatitudes generally originate from quiet time nocturnal medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs). However, decisive evidences for the connection between the two have been missing. In this study we make use of the multispacecraft observations of midlatitude magnetic fluctuations (MMFs) in the nighttime topside ionosphere by the Swarm constellation. The analysis results show that the area hosting MMFs is elongated in the NW-SE (NE-SW) direction in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. The elongation direction and the magnetic field polarization support that the area hosting MMFs is nearly field aligned. All these properties of MMFs suggest that they have close relationship with MSTIDs. Expectation values of root-mean-square field-aligned currents associated with MMFs are up to about 4nA/m(2). MMF coherency significantly drops for longitudinal distances of 1 degrees.
Permafrost inundated since the last glacial maximum is degrading, potentially releasing trapped or stabilized greenhouse gases, but few observations of the depth of ice-bonded permafrost (IBP) below the seafloor exist for most of the arctic continental shelf. We use spectral ratios of the ambient vibration seismic wavefield, together with estimated shear wave velocity from the dispersion curves of surface waves, for estimating the thickness of the sediment overlying the IBP. Peaks in spectral ratios modeled for three-layered 1-D systems correspond with varying thickness of the unfrozen sediment. Seismic receivers were deployed on the seabed around Muostakh Island in the central Laptev Sea, Siberia. We derive depths of the IBP between 3.7 and 20.7m15%, increasing with distance from the shoreline. Correspondence between expected permafrost distribution, modeled response, and observational data suggests that the method is promising for the determination of the thickness of unfrozen sediment.
Earthquake clustering has proven the most useful tool to forecast changes in seismicity rates in the short and medium term (hours to months), and efforts are currently being made to extend the scope of such models to operational earthquake forecasting. The overarching goal of the research presented in this thesis is to improve physics-based earthquake forecasts, with a focus on aftershock sequences. Physical models of triggered seismicity are based on the redistribution of stresses in the crust, coupled with the rate-and-state constitutive law proposed by Dieterich to calculate changes in seismicity rate. This type of models are known as Coulomb- rate and-state (CRS) models. In spite of the success of the Coulomb hypothesis, CRS models typically performed poorly in comparison to statistical ones, and they have been underepresented in the operational forecasting context. In this thesis, I address some of these issues, and in particular these questions: (1) How can we realistically model the uncertainties and heterogeneity of the mainshock stress field? (2) What is the effect of time dependent stresses in the postseismic phase on seismicity? I focus on two case studies from different tectonic settings: the Mw 9.0 Tohoku megathrust and the Mw 6.0 Parkfield strike slip earthquake. I study aleatoric uncertainties using a Monte Carlo method. I find that the existence of multiple receiver faults is the most important source of intrinsic stress heterogeneity, and CRS models perform better when this variability is taken into account. Epistemic uncertainties inherited from the slip models also have a significant impact on the forecast, and I find that an ensemble model based on several slip distributions outperforms most individual models. I address the role of postseismic stresses due to aseismic slip on the mainshock fault (afterslip) and to the redistribution of stresses by previous aftershocks (secondary triggering). I find that modeling secondary triggering improves model performance. The effect of afterslip is less clear, and difficult to assess for near-fault aftershocks due to the large uncertainties of the afterslip models. Off-fault events, on the other hand, are less sensitive to the details of the slip distribution: I find that following the Tohoku earthquake, afterslip promotes seismicity in the Fukushima region. To evaluate the performance of the improved CRS models in a pseudo-operational context, I submitted them for independent testing to a collaborative experiment carried out by CSEP for the 2010-2012 Canterbury sequence. Preliminary results indicate that physical models generally perform well compared to statistical ones, suggesting that CRS models may have a role to play in the future of operational forecasting. To facilitate efforts in this direction, and to enable future studies of earthquake triggering by time dependent processes, I have made the code open source. In the final part of this thesis I summarize the capabilities of the program and outline technical aspects regarding performance and parallelization strategies.
Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models, they cannot be directly used in hydrological models. Hence, statistical downscaling is necessary to address climate change impacts at the catchment scale.
This study compares eight statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) often used in climate change impact studies. Four methods are based on change factors (CFs), three are bias correction (BC) methods, and one is a perfect prognosis method. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from 15 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project for 11 catchments in Europe. The overall results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in most catchments in both winter and summer. For individual catchments, the downscaled time series tend to agree on the direction of the change but differ in the magnitude. Differences between the SDMs vary between the catchments and depend on the season analysed. Similarly, general conclusions cannot be drawn regarding the differences between CFs and BC methods. The performance of the BC methods during the control period also depends on the catchment, but in most cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM outputs. Analysis of the variance in the ensemble of RCMs and SDMs indicates that at least 30% and up to approximately half of the total variance is derived from the SDMs. This study illustrates the large variability in the expected changes in extreme precipitation and highlights the need for considering an ensemble of both SDMs and climate models. Recommendations are provided for the selection of the most suitable SDMs to include in the analysis.
Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) based on radiolarian assemblage changes are estimated for the last 160 kyr, from a sediment core (Y9) recovered from Pukaki Saddle, northeast of Campbell Plateau. Site Y9 lies beneath Subantarctic Surface Water (SAW) immediately to the north of the Subantarctic Front (SAF), which in this region is bathymetrically constrained by the edges of Campbell Plateau and defines the northern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Radiolarian assemblages are characterised by an exceptionally high abundance of the Antarctic to subantarctic species Antarctissa spp. (up to 68%), especially during glacial intervals. SST estimates are derived using Factor Analysis and the Modern Analog Technique. Both methods capture the glacial-interglacial (G-I) pattern. The SST reconstructions show the changing relative influence of distinct water masses during the past G-I cycle, with major temperature variations of the order of 7-9 degrees C at glacial Terminations. Glacials (marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 and 2) are associated with particularly cool SSTs that are indicative of a more vigorous SAF/ACC and an enhancement of the inflow through Pukaki Saddle and/or frequent development of cold-core eddies at the SAF. By contrast, the influence of warmer waters and relaxation of the ACC during interglacials can be inferred from temperatures slightly warmer (e.g., mid-Holocene) and/or comparable to present day (e.g., MIS 5e). During these intervals, relatively warmer temperatures most likely indicate a higher warmcore eddy activity due to a strengthened Subtropical Front and/or a weakened inflow of cool water through Pukaki Saddle and/or an increased stratification in the Campbell Plateau region. Furthermore, the SST record is characterised by an abrupt warming at ca. 10 kyr (i.e., Termination l), the occurrence of a reversal at Termination I, and a warming event at the end of MIS 4, coinciding with the A4 event in the Byrd ice core. These characteristics, together with the pronounced G-I cycle shown by the SST estimates, suggest that Site Y9 is influenced by major oceanographic changes in the SW Pacific and responds to thermal changes at high southern latitudes. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
High resolution isotopic (delta O-18 and delta C-13) investigations on endogenic carbonates (calcite/aragonite) from Tso Moriri Lake, NW Himalaya show dramatic fluctuations during the late glacial and the early Holocene, and a persistent enrichment trend during the late Holocene. Changes in this lake are largely governed by the [input (meltwater + monsoon precipitation)/evaporationj (WE) ratio, also reflected in changes in the carbonate mineralogy with aragonite being formed during periods of lowest I/E. Using new isotopic data on endogenic carbonates in combination with the available data on geochemistry, mineralogy, and reconstructed mean annual precipitation, we demonstrate that the late glacial and early Holocene carbonate delta O-18 variability resulted from fluctuating Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation in NW Himalaya. This region experienced increasing ISM precipitation between ca. 13.1 and 11.7 cal ka and highest ISM precipitation during the early Holocene (11.2-8.5 cal ka). However, during the late Holocene, evaporation was the dominant control on the carbonate delta O-18. Regional comparison of reconstructed hydrological changes from Tso Moriri Lake with other archives from the Asian summer monsoon and westerlies domain shows that the intensified westerly influence that resulted in higher lake levels (after 8 cal ka) in central Asia was not strongly felt in NW Himalaya. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Combinations of runoff characteristics are commonly used to represent distinct conceptual models of stormflow generation. In this study, three runoff characteristics: hydrograph response, time source of runoff water, and flow path are used to classify catchments. Published data from the scientific literature are used to provide evidence from small, forested catchments. Each catchment was assigned to one of the eight conceptual models, depending on the combination of quick/slow response, old/new water, and overland/subsurface flow. A standard procedure was developed to objectively diagnose the predominant conceptual model of stormflow generation for each catchment and assess its temporal and spatial support. The literature survey yielded 42 catchments, of which 30 catchments provide a complete set of qualitative runoff characteristics resulting in one of the eight conceptual models. The majority of these catchments classify as subsurface flow path dominated. No catchments were found for conceptual models representing combinations of quick response-new water-subsurface flow (SSF), slow-new-SSF, slow-old-overland flow (OF) nor new-slow-OF. Of the 30 qualitatively classified catchments, 24 provide a complete set of quantitative measures. In summary, the field support is strong for 19 subsurface-dominated catchments and is weak for 5 surface flow path dominated catchments (six catchments had insufficient quantitative data). Two alternative explanations exist for the imbalance of field support between the two flow path classes: (1) the selection of research catchments in past field studies was mainly to explain quick hydrograph response in subsurface dominated catchments; (2) catchments with prevailing subsurface flow paths are more common in nature. We conclude that the selection of research catchments needs to cover a wider variety of environmental conditions which should lead to a broader, and more widely applicable, spectrum of resulting conceptual models and process mechanisms. This is a prerequisite in studies where catchment organization and similarity approaches are used to develop catchment classification systems in order to regionalize stormflow.
Remnants of hydrous melt formed at mantle depths have been identified and characterized within high-pressure leucogranulites of the Orlica-Snieznik Dome (Bohemian Massif, central Europe). They occur as nanogranites in garnet formed via partial melting of granitoids during the Variscan orogeny. Melt composition and H2O content have been investigated in situ after experimental re-homogenization of the nanogranites, and are consistent with melts produced experimentally from crustal lithologies at mantle depths. This is the first geochemical study of melt inclusions from natural crustal rocks equilibrated close to the stability field of coesite, shedding light on how continental crust melts during deep subduction. Whereas decompressional melting is commonly invoked for deeply subducted crustal lithologies, melting occurred near or at the metamorphic peak pressure in the Orlica-Snieznik granulites. Melting of deeply subducted crustal rocks significantly modifies the rheology and thus promotes fast exhumation: this process has a critical influence on the geodynamic evolution of subduction-collision orogens as well as crustal differentiation at depth.
Hyperspectral REE (Rare Earth Element) Mapping of Outcrops-Applications for Neodymium Detection
(2015)
In this study, an in situ application for identifying neodymium (Nd) enriched surface materials that uses multitemporal hyperspectral images is presented (HySpex sensor). Because of the narrow shape and shallow absorption depth of the neodymium absorption feature, a method was developed for enhancing and extracting the necessary information for neodymium from image spectra, even under illumination conditions that are not optimal. For this purpose, the two following approaches were developed: (1) reducing noise and analyzing changing illumination conditions by averaging multitemporal image scenes and (2) enhancing the depth of the desired absorption band by deconvolving every image spectrum with a Gaussian curve while the rest of the spectrum remains unchanged (Richardson-Lucy deconvolution). To evaluate these findings, nine field samples from the Fen complex in Norway were analyzed using handheld X-ray fluorescence devices and by conducting detailed laboratory-based geochemical rare earth element determinations. The result is a qualitative outcrop map that highlights zones that are enriched in neodymium. To reduce the influences of non-optimal illumination, particularly at the studied site, a minimum of seven single acquisitions is required. Sharpening the neodymium absorption band allows for robust mapping, even at the outer zones of enrichment. From the geochemical investigations, we found that iron oxides decrease the applicability of the method. However, iron-related absorption bands can be used as secondary indicators for sulfidic ore zones that are mainly enriched with rare earth elements. In summary, we found that hyperspectral spectroscopy is a noninvasive, fast and cost-saving method for determining neodymium at outcrop surfaces.
We study segregation of the subducted oceanic crust (OC) at the core-mantle boundary and its ability to accumulate and form large thermochemical piles (such as the seismically observed Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs)). Our high-resolution numerical simulations of thermochemical mantle convection suggest that the longevity of LLSVPs for up to three billion years, and possibly longer, can be ensured by a balance in the rate of segregation of high-density OC material to the core-mantle boundary (CMB) and the rate of its entrainment away from the CMB by mantle upwellings. For a range of parameters tested in this study, a large-scale compositional anomaly forms at the CMB, similar in shape and size to the LLSVPs. Neutrally buoyant thermochemical piles formed by mechanical stirringwhere thermally induced negative density anomaly is balanced by the presence of a fraction of dense anomalous materialbest resemble the geometry of LLSVPs. Such neutrally buoyant piles tend to emerge and survive for at least 3Gyr in simulations with quite different parameters. We conclude that for a plausible range of values of density anomaly of OC material in the lower mantleit is likely that it segregates to the CMB, gets mechanically mixed with the ambient material, and forms neutrally buoyant large-scale compositional anomalies similar in shape to the LLSVPs.
A SSHAC Level 3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for a New-Build Nuclear Site in South Africa
(2015)
A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been conducted for a potential nuclear power plant site on the coast of South Africa, a country of low-to-moderate seismicity. The hazard study was conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 process, the first application of this approach outside North America. Extensive geological investigations identified five fault sources with a non-zero probability of being seismogenic. Five area sources were defined for distributed seismicity, the least active being the host zone for which the low recurrence rates for earthquakes were substantiated through investigations of historical seismicity. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations were adjusted to a horizon within the bedrock at the site using kappa values inferred from weak-motion analyses. These adjusted models were then scaled to create new equations capturing the range of epistemic uncertainty in this region with no strong motion recordings. Surface motions were obtained by convolving the bedrock motions with site amplification functions calculated using measured shear-wave velocity profiles.
Pseudotachylitic breccia (PTB) in the form of cm-wide melt breccia veinlets locally occurs on the exposed central uplift of the 380Ma Siljan impact structure. The host rock to the PTBs is the so-called Jarna granite of quartz monzonitic to syenodioritic composition. The nearly 603m long BH-5 drill core from Hattberg, near the centre of the Siljan central uplift, contains numerous veins and pods of PTB. In particular, two major zones of 60m combined width contain extensive PTB network breccias (30% actual melt breccia component), with individual melt breccia occurrences up to >1m in length. Core logging and petrographic and geochemical analysis of the core have been performed, and the data are interpreted to suggest the following. (1) The impact event caused low to moderate (at essentially <20GPa) shock deformation in the host rock and in clasts of this lithology within the PTB. (2) Macroscopic deformation of the basement mainly comprises fracturing, with only localised cataclasis. (3) No evidence for shock melting (i.e. compression/decompression melting early in the cratering process) could be observed. (4) Optical and scanning electron microscopy showed that dark PTB contains a definite melt component. (5) Shearing has significantly affected this part of the central uplift, but its effects are limited to very short displacements and likely did not result in extensive melting. (6) A frictional heating component upon melt generation can, however, not be excluded, as many PTB samples contain clasts of a mafic (gabbroic) component, although only in one place along the entire core, a 1.2cm-wide section through such material in direct contact to host rock was observed. Consequently, we suggest that, upon uplift in the central part of the impact structure, considerable melt volumes were generated locally, especially in areas that had been affected by extensive cataclasis and where grain size comminution favoured melt formation. Rapid decompression related to central uplift formation is the preferred process for the generation of the PTB melt breccias.
Hyporheic exchange transports solutes into the subsurface where they can undergo biogeochemical transformations, affecting fluvial water quality and ecology. A three-dimensional numerical model of a natural in-stream gravel bar (20 m x 6 m) is presented. Multiple steady state streamflow is simulated with a computational fluid dynamics code that is sequentially coupled to a reactive transport groundwater model via the hydraulic head distribution at the streambed. Ambient groundwater flow is considered by scenarios of neutral, gaining, and losing conditions. The transformation of oxygen, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon by aerobic respiration and denitrification in the hyporheic zone are modeled, as is the denitrification of groundwater-borne nitrate when mixed with stream-sourced carbon. In contrast to fully submerged structures, hyporheic exchange flux decreases with increasing stream discharge, due to decreasing hydraulic head gradients across the partially submerged structure. Hyporheic residence time distributions are skewed in the log-space with medians of up to 8 h and shift to symmetric distributions with increasing level of submergence. Solute turnover is mainly controlled by residence times and the extent of the hyporheic exchange flow, which defines the potential reaction area. Although streamflow is the primary driver of hyporheic exchange, its impact on hyporheic exchange flux, residence times, and solute turnover is small, as these quantities exponentially decrease under losing and gaining conditions. Hence, highest reaction potential exists under neutral conditions, when the capacity for denitrification in the partially submerged structure can be orders of magnitude higher than in fully submerged structures.
The Earth's biggest magmatic events are believed to originate from massive melting when hot mantle plumes rising from the lowermost mantle reach the base of the lithosphere. Classical models predict large plume heads that cause kilometre-scale surface uplift, and narrow (100 km radius) plume tails that remain in the mantle after the plume head spreads below the lithosphere. However, in many cases, such uplifts and narrow plume tails are not observed. Here using numerical models, we show that the issue can be resolved if major mantle plumes contain up to 15-20% of recycled oceanic crust in a form of dense eclogite, which drastically decreases their buoyancy and makes it depth dependent. We demonstrate that, despite their low buoyancy, large enough thermochemical plumes can rise through the whole mantle causing only negligible surface uplift. Their tails are bulky (4200 km radius) and remain in the upper mantle for 100 millions of years.
Several solutions have been proposed to explain the long-standing kinematic observation that postcollisional upper crustal shortening within the Himalaya and Asia is much less than the magnitude of India-Asia convergence. Here we implement these hypotheses in global plate reconstructions and test paleolatitudes predicted by the global apparent polar wander path against independent, and the most robust paleomagnetic data. Our tests demonstrate that (1) reconstructed 600-750km postcollisional intra-Asian shortening is a minimum value; (2) a 52Ma collision age is only consistent with paleomagnetic data if intra-Asian shortening was 900km; a 56-58Ma collision age requires greater intra-Asian shortening; (3) collision ages of 34 or 65Ma incorrectly predict Late Cretaceous and Paleogene paleolatitudes of the Tibetan Himalaya (TH); and (4) Cretaceous counterclockwise rotation of India cannot explain the paleolatitudinal divergence between the TH and India. All hypotheses, regardless of collision age, require major Cretaceous extension within Greater India.
Faulting processes in volcanic areas result from a complex interaction of pressurized fluid-filled cracks and conduits with the host rock and local and regional tectonic setting. Often, volcanic seismicity is difficult to decipher in terms of the physical processes involved, and there is a need for models relating the mechanics of volcanic sources to observations. Here we use focal mechanism data of the energetic swarm induced by the 2000 dike intrusion at Miyakejima (Izu Archipelago, Japan), to study the relation between the 3-D dike-induced stresses and the characteristics of the seismicity. We perform a clustering analysis on the focal mechanism (FM) solutions and relate them to the dike stress field and to the scaling relationships of the earthquakes. We find that the strike and rake angles of the FMs are strongly correlated and cluster on bands in a strike-rake plot. We suggest that this is consistent with optimally oriented faults according to the expected pattern of Coulomb stress changes. We calculate the frequency-size distribution of the clustered sets finding that focal mechanisms with a large strike-slip component are consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter relation with a b value of about 1. Conversely, events with large normal faulting components deviate from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution with a marked roll-off on its right-hand tail, suggesting a lack of large-magnitude events (M-w>5.5). This may result from the interplay of the limited thickness and lower rock strength of the layer of rock above the dike, where normal faulting is expected, and lower stress levels linked to the faulting style and low confining pressure.