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In this paper, we move from the large strand of research that looks at evidence of climate migration to the questions: who are the climate migrants? and where do they go? These questions are crucial to design policies that mitigate welfare losses of migration choices due to climate change. We study the direct and heterogeneous associations between weather extremes and migration in rural India. We combine ERAS reanalysis data with the India Human Development Survey household panel and conduct regression analyses by applying linear probability and multinomial logit models. This enables us to establish a causal relationship between temperature and precipitation anomalies and overall migration as well as migration by destination. We show that adverse weather shocks decrease rural-rural and international migration and push people into cities in different, presumably more prosperous states. A series of positive weather shocks, however, facilitates international migration and migration to cities within the same state. Further, our results indicate that in contrast to other migrants, climate migrants are likely to be from the lower end of the skill distribution and from households strongly dependent on agricultural production. We estimate that approximately 8% of all rural-urban moves between 2005 and 2012 can be attributed to weather. This figure might increase as a consequence of climate change. Thus, a key policy recommendation is to take steps to facilitate integration of less educated migrants into the urban labor market.
This thesis offers new insights on the effects of Start-Up Subsidies (SUS) for unemployed individuals as a special kind of active labor market program (ALMP) that aims to re-integrate individuals into the labor market via the route of self-employment. Moreover, this thesis contributes to the literature on methods for causal inference when the treatment variable is continuous rather than binary. For example, this is the case when individuals differ in their degree of exposure to a common treatment.
The analysis of the effects of SUS focuses on the main current German program called “Gründungszuschuss” (New Start-Up Subsidy, NSUS) after its reform in 2011. Average Effects on participants' labor market outcomes - as measured by employment and earnings - as well as subjective well-being are estimated mainly based on propensity score matching (PSM) techniques. PSM aims to achieve balance in terms of observed characteristics by matching participants with at least one comparable non-participant in terms of their probability to receive the treatment. This estimation strategy is valid as long as all relevant characteristics that explain selection patterns into treatment are observed and included in the estimation of the propensity score. To make our analysis as credible as possible, we control for a large vector of characteristics as observed through the combination of rich administrative data from the Federal Employment Agency as well as through survey data.
Chapters two to four of this thesis puts special emphasis on aspects regarding (the evaluation of) SUS programs that have received no or only limited attention thus far. The first aspect relates to the interplay of institutional details of the program and its effectiveness. So far, relatively little is known about the importance of SUS program features such as the duration of support. Second, there is no experimental benchmark evaluation of SUS available and thus, the reliability of non-experimental estimation techniques such as PSM is of crucial importance as estimates are biased when relevant confounders are omitted from the analysis. Third, there may be potentially detrimental effects of transitioning into (relatively risky) self-employment on subjective well-being among subsidized founders out of unemployment. These were to remain undetected if the analysis would focus exclusively on labor market outcomes of participants. The results indicate positive long-term effects of SUS participation on employment and earnings among participants. These effects are substantially larger than what estimated before the reform, indicating room for improvement in program design via changes in institutional details. Moreover, non-experimental estimates of treatment effects are remarkably robust to hidden confounding. Regarding subjective well-being, this thesis finds a positive long-run impact on job satisfaction and a detrimental effect on satisfaction with social security. The latter appears to be driven by adverse effects on social insurance contributions.
In chapter five, a novel automated covariate balancing technique for the estimation of causal effects in the context of continuous treatments is derived and assessed regarding its performance compared to other (automated) balancing techniques. Although binary research designs that only differentiate between participants and non-participants of some treatment remain the most-common case in empirical practice, many applications can be adapted to include continuous treatments as well. Often, this will allow for more meaningful estimates of causal effects in order to further improve the design of programs. In the context of SUS, one may further investigate the effects of the size of monetary support or its duration on participants' labor market outcomes. Both Monte-Carlo investigations and analysis of two well-known datasets suggests superior performance of the proposed Entropy Balancing for continuous treatments (EBCT) compared to other existing estimation strategies.
Reconstructing democracy
(2020)
Across the world, democracies are suffering from a disconnect between the people and political elites. In communities where jobs and industry are scarce, many feel the government is incapable of understanding their needs or addressing their problems. The resulting frustration has fueled the success of destabilizing demagogues. To reverse this pattern and restore responsible government, we need to reinvigorate democracy at the local level. But what does that mean? Drawing on examples of successful community building in cities large and small, from a shrinking village in rural Austria to a neglected section of San Diego, Reconstructing Democracy makes a powerful case for re-engaging citizens. It highlights innovative grassroots projects and shows how local activists can form alliances and discover their own power to solve problems.
Introduction
(2020)
Does political repression work and if so, under what conditions? Many contributions to the empirical study of non-democratic rule assume it does. As a consequence, strong convictions on political repression abound, but empirical investigations into the matter remain rare. This introduction sets the agenda for the chapters to come and outlines the answers given to the three motivating questions of this volume. First, what variants of political repression are there, and how do they interact? Second, what impact does the interaction of different forms of political repression have on the problem of authoritarian control? Finally, what difference does the complementary use of violence and restrictions make for the problem of authoritarian power-sharing?
It is well known that the inverted Collatz sequence can be represented as a graph or a tree. Similarly, it is acknowledged that in order to prove the Collatz conjecture, one must demonstrate that this tree covers all (odd) natural numbers. A structured reachability analysis is hitherto not available. This paper investigates the problem from a graph theory perspective. We define a tree that consists of nodes labeled with Collatz sequence numbers. This tree will be transformed into a sub-tree that only contains odd labeled nodes. The analysis of this tree will provide new insights into the structure of Collatz sequences. The findings are of special interest to possible cycles within a sequence. Next, we describe the conditions which must be fulfilled by a cycle. Finally, we demonstrate how these conditions could be used to prove that the only possible cycle within a Collatz sequence is the trivial cycle, starting with the number 1, as conjectured by Lothar Collatz.
It is well known that the inverted Collatz sequence can be represented as a graph or a tree. Similarly, it is acknowledged that in order to prove the Collatz conjecture, one must demonstrate that this tree covers all odd natural numbers. A structured reachability analysis is hitherto not available. This paper investigates the problem from a graph theory perspective. We define a tree that consists of nodes labeled with Collatz sequence numbers. This tree will be transformed into a sub-tree that only contains odd labeled nodes. The analysis of this tree will provide new insights into the structure of Collatz sequences. The findings are of special interest to possible cycles within a sequence. Next, we describe the conditions which must be fulfilled by a cycle. Finally, we demonstrate how these conditions could be used to prove that the only possible cycle within a Collatz sequence is the trivial cycle, starting with the number one, as conjectured by Lothar Collatz.
It is well known that the inverted Collatz sequence can be represented as a graph or a tree. Similarly, it is acknowledged that in order to prove the Collatz conjecture, one must demonstrate that this tree covers all odd natural numbers. A structured reachability analysis is hitherto unavailable. This paper investigates the problem from a graph theory perspective. We define a tree that consists of nodes labeled with Collatz sequence numbers. This tree will be transformed into a sub-tree that only contains odd labeled nodes. Furthermore, we derive and prove several formulas that can be used to traverse the graph. The analysis covers the Collatz problem both in it’s original form 3x + 1 as well as in the generalized variant kx + 1. Finally, we transform the Collatz graph into a binary tree, following the approach of Kleinnijenhuis, which could form the basis for a comprehensive proof of the conjecture.
Social Media, Quo Vadis?
(2020)
Over the past two decades, social media have become a crucial and omnipresent cultural and economic phenomenon, which has seen platforms come and go and advance technologically. In this study, we explore the further development of social media regarding interactive technologies, platform development, relationships to news media, the activities of institutional and organizational users, and effects of social media on the individual and the society over the next five to ten years by conducting an international, two-stage Delphi study. Our results show that enhanced interaction on platforms, including virtual and augmented reality, somatosensory sense, and touch- and movement-based navigation are expected. AIs will interact with other social media users. Inactive user profiles will outnumber active ones. Platform providers will diversify into the WWW, e-commerce, edu-tech, fintechs, the automobile industry, and HR. They will change to a freemium business model and put more effort into combating cybercrime. Social media will become the predominant news distributor, but fake news will still be problematic. Firms will spend greater amounts of their budgets on social media advertising, and schools, politicians, and the medical sector will increase their social media engagement. Social media use will increasingly lead to individuals’ psychic issues. Society will benefit from economic growth and new jobs, increased political interest, democratic progress, and education due to social media. However, censorship and the energy consumption of platform operators might rise.
Social Media, Quo Vadis?
(2020)
Over the past two decades, social media have become a crucial and omnipresent cultural and economic phenomenon, which has seen platforms come and go and advance technologically. In this study, we explore the further development of social media regarding interactive technologies, platform development, relationships to news media, the activities of institutional and organizational users, and effects of social media on the individual and the society over the next five to ten years by conducting an international, two-stage Delphi study. Our results show that enhanced interaction on platforms, including virtual and augmented reality, somatosensory sense, and touch- and movement-based navigation are expected. AIs will interact with other social media users. Inactive user profiles will outnumber active ones. Platform providers will diversify into the WWW, e-commerce, edu-tech, fintechs, the automobile industry, and HR. They will change to a freemium business model and put more effort into combating cybercrime. Social media will become the predominant news distributor, but fake news will still be problematic. Firms will spend greater amounts of their budgets on social media advertising, and schools, politicians, and the medical sector will increase their social media engagement. Social media use will increasingly lead to individuals’ psychic issues. Society will benefit from economic growth and new jobs, increased political interest, democratic progress, and education due to social media. However, censorship and the energy consumption of platform operators might rise.
Climate-related costs and benefits may not be evenly distributed across the population. We study distributional implications of seasonal weather and climate on within-country inequality in rural India. Utilizing a first difference approach, we find that the poor are more sensitive to weather variations than the non-poor. The poor respond more strongly to (seasonal) temperature changes: negatively in the (warm) spring season, more positively in the (cold) rabi season. Less precipitation is harmful to the poor in the monsoon kharif season and beneficial in the winter and spring seasons. We show that adverse weather aggravates inequality by reducing consumption of the poor farming households. Future global warming predicted under RCP8.5 is likely to exacerbate these effects, reducing consumption of poor farming households by one third until the year 2100. We also find inequality in consumption across seasons with higher consumption during the harvest and lower consumption during the sowing seasons.
How Will We Dine?
(2020)
Haute cuisine, the cooking style for fine dining at gourmet restaurants, has changed over the last decades and can be expected to evolve in the upcoming years. To engage in foresight, the purpose of this study is to identify a plausible future trend scenario for the haute cuisine sector within the next five to ten years, based on today’s chefs’ views. To achieve this goal, an international, two-stage Delphi study was conducted. The derived scenario suggests that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will lead to significant restaurant bankruptcies and will raise creativity and innovation among the remaining ones. It is expected that haute cuisine tourism will grow and that menu prices will differ for customer segments. More haute cuisine restaurants will open in Asia and America. Local food will remain a major trend and will be complemented by insect as well as plant-based proteins and sophisticated nonalcoholic food pairings. Restaurant design and the use of scents will become more relevant. Also, private dining and fine dining at home will become more important. The scenario also includes negative projections. These findings can serve as a research agenda for future research in haute cuisine, including the extension of the innovation lens towards the restaurant and the business model. Practical implications include the necessity for haute cuisine restaurants to innovate to cope with increasing competition in several regions. Customers should be seen as co-creators of the value of haute cuisine.
How Will We Dine?
(2020)
Haute cuisine, the cooking style for fine dining at gourmet restaurants, has changed over the last decades and can be expected to evolve in the upcoming years. To engage in foresight, the purpose of this study is to identify a plausible future trend scenario for the haute cuisine sector within the next five to ten years, based on today’s chefs’ views. To achieve this goal, an international, two-stage Delphi study was conducted. The derived scenario suggests that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will lead to significant restaurant bankruptcies and will raise creativity and innovation among the remaining ones. It is expected that haute cuisine tourism will grow and that menu prices will differ for customer segments. More haute cuisine restaurants will open in Asia and America. Local food will remain a major trend and will be complemented by insect as well as plant-based proteins and sophisticated nonalcoholic food pairings. Restaurant design and the use of scents will become more relevant. Also, private dining and fine dining at home will become more important. The scenario also includes negative projections. These findings can serve as a research agenda for future research in haute cuisine, including the extension of the innovation lens towards the restaurant and the business model. Practical implications include the necessity for haute cuisine restaurants to innovate to cope with increasing competition in several regions. Customers should be seen as co-creators of the value of haute cuisine.
Strategic entrepreneurship
(2020)
Purpose:
Strategic entrepreneurship (SE) depicts the nexus of strategic management and entrepreneurship, suggesting that firms can create superior wealth when simultaneously pursuing advantage-seeking and opportunity-seeking behavior. As the rapid growth in SE research led to a multidisciplinary, scattered and fragmented literature landscape, the authors aim to structure this research field.
Design/methodology/approach:
The authors employ a bibliographic coupling and literature review of the strategic entrepreneurship research field.
Findings:
The authors identify and describe five major research streams with 15 sub-themes in recent SE research. Based on our findings, the authors propose an integrated research framework and research gaps for future research.
Originality/value:
To the authors' knowledge, this is the first review on SE based on a bibliographic coupling.
Objective We propose a data-driven method to detect temporal patterns of disease progression in high-dimensional claims data based on gradient boosting with stability selection. Materials and methods We identified patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a German health insurance claims database with 6.5 million individuals and divided them into a group of patients with the highest disease severity and a group of control patients with lower severity. We then used gradient boosting with stability selection to determine variables correlating with a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis of highest severity and subsequently model the temporal progression of the disease using the selected variables. Results We identified a network of 20 diagnoses (e.g. respiratory failure), medications (e.g. anticholinergic drugs) and procedures associated with a subsequent chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis of highest severity. Furthermore, the network successfully captured temporal patterns, such as disease progressions from lower to higher severity grades. Discussion The temporal trajectories identified by our data-driven approach are compatible with existing knowledge about chronic obstructive pulmonary disease showing that the method can reliably select relevant variables in a high-dimensional context. Conclusion We provide a generalizable approach for the automatic detection of disease trajectories in claims data. This could help to diagnose diseases early, identify unknown risk factors and optimize treatment plans.
Climate change entails an intensification of extreme weather events that can potentially trigger socioeconomic and energy system disruptions. As we approach 1 degrees C of global warming we should start learning from historical extremes and explicitly incorporate such events in integrated climate-economy and energy systems models.
Issues The last Soviet anti-alcohol campaign of 1985 resulted in considerably reduced alcohol consumption and saved thousands of lives. But once the campaign's policies were abandoned and the Soviet alcohol monopoly broken up, a steep rise in mortality was observed in many of the newly formed successor countries, although some kept their monopolies. Almost 30 years after the campaign's end, the region faces diverse challenges in relation to alcohol.
Approach The present narrative review sheds light on recent drinking trends and alcohol policy developments in the 15 Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries, highlighting the most important setbacks, achievements and best practices. Vignettes of alcohol control policies in Belarus, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Lithuania and Uzbekistan are presented to illustrate the recent developments. <br /> Key Findings Over the past decade, drinking levels have declined in almost all FSU countries, paralleled by the introduction of various alcohol-control measures. The so-called three 'best buys' put forward by the World Health Organization to reduce alcohol-attributable burden (taxation and other measures to increase price, restrictions on alcohol availability and marketing) are relatively well implemented across the countries.
Implications In recent years, evidence-based alcohol policies have been actively implemented as a response to the enormous alcohol-attributable burden in many of the countries, although there is big variance across and within different jurisdictions.
Conclusion Strong declines in alcohol consumption were observed in the 15 FSU countries, which have introduced various alcohol control measures in recent years, resulting in a reduction of alcohol consumption in the World Health Organization European region overall.
Advanced non-viral gene delivery experiments often require co-delivery of multiple nucleic acids. Therefore, the availability of reliable and robust co-transfection methods and defined selection criteria for their use in, e.g., expression of multimeric proteins or mixed RNA/DNA delivery is of utmost importance. Here, we investigated different co- and successive transfection approaches, with particular focus on in vitro transcribed messenger RNA (IVT-mRNA). Expression levels and patterns of two fluorescent protein reporters were determined, using different IVT-mRNA doses, carriers, and cell types. Quantitative parameters determining the efficiency of co-delivery were analyzed for IVT-mRNAs premixed before nanocarrier formation (integrated co-transfection) and when simultaneously transfecting cells with separately formed nanocarriers (parallel co-transfection), which resulted in a much higher level of expression heterogeneity for the two reporters. Successive delivery of mRNA revealed a lower transfection efficiency in the second transfection round. All these differences proved to be more pronounced for low mRNA doses. Concurrent delivery of siRNA with mRNA also indicated the highest co-transfection efficiency for integrated method. However, the maximum efficacy was shown for successive delivery, due to the kinetically different peak output for the two discretely operating entities. Our findings provide guidance for selection of the co-delivery method best suited to accommodate experimental requirements, highlighting in particular the nucleic acid dose-response dependence on co-delivery on the single-cell level.
Depuis les débuts de l’ère spatiale à la seconde moitié du XXème siècle, la France et l’Allemagne ont contribué à l’émergence d’une industrie spatiale européenne dont ils sont les deux principaux acteurs et les principaux partenaires. L’agence spatiale européenne, en s’appuyant sur cette industrie duale, à la fois civile et militaire, a donné une place importante à l’Europe sur la scène mondiale. La création de pôles de compétitivité au tournant du XXIème siècle a contribué à soutenir l’innovation dans un secteur bousculé par l’arrivée de nouveaux acteurs internationaux. Ces pôles se sont imposés dans le paysage économique du secteur en créant des organisations où cohabitent et collaborent des acteurs privés et publics allant de la recherche à la mise en oeuvre des technologies développées. A la multiplicité des politiques de soutien à l’innovation en France et en Allemagne s’ajoutent désormais les objectifs européens définis par la Commission Européenne. Les pôles de compétitivité ne sont pas identifiés comme des instruments privilégiés de la politique spatiale européenne pas plus que dans les projets de coopération franco-allemands des dernières années. La capacité d’action locale de ces organisations n’est pas adaptée aux enjeux économiques à dimension européenne qui prévalent aujourd’hui et ne leur permet pas de s’intégrer efficacement dans l’industrie spatiale moderne.
The ability of a company to innovate and to launch innovation is a critical competitive edge to remain competitive in the 21st century. Large organizations therefore increasingly recognize employees as a significant factor and critical source of innovation. Several studies assert the fact that every employee has to offer certain skills and knowledge and can contribute to innovation. Hence, every employee has a certain ‘entrepreneurial potential’. This potential can be expressed in the form of entrepreneurial behaviour and can occur in many ways, from monopersonal innovation championing to several small scale contributions, where several individuals team up for innovation. To support entrepreneurial behaviour of their employees, large organizations increasingly rely on Corporate Entrepreneurship. They set up organizational structures and venturing units, offer vehicles and tools to their employees to be more entrepreneurial. The evolvement of new tools and technologies thereby allow for new ways of employee involvement, also allowing for more radical innovation to be developed collaboratively. Yet, many of such offerings fail to achieve the desired outcome. While some employees immediately opt-in for innovation, others do not and their entrepreneurial potential remains untapped. This research explores how large organizations can better support their employees to express their entrepreneurial potential, thus moving from non-entrepreneurial behaviour or not wanting to be involved, to actually expressing entrepreneurial behaviour. The underlying research therefore is two-fold. While focusing on the individual level and the entrepreneurial behaviour of employees, this research also takes the organizational perspective into account in order to identify how non-entrepreneurial behaviour can be stimulated towards entrepreneurial behaviour. Using an empirical qualitative research design based on pragmatism and abduction, data is collected by means of qualitative interviews as well as a longitudinal use case setting. Grounded theory is then applied for analysis and sense making. The main outcome is a theoretical model of why employees are expressing or not expressing their entrepreneurial potential and how non-expression can potentially be triggered towards entrepreneurial behaviour. The results indicate that there is no one-size-fits all model of Corporate Entrepreneurship. This research therefore argues that organizations can achieve higher levels of entrepreneurial behaviour when addressing employees differently. By developing a theoretical model as well as suggestions of how this model can be applied in practice, this research contributes to theory and practice alike. This document closes suggesting future research areas around supporting employees to express their entrepreneurial potential.