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The use of unilateral force under George W. Bush is not a new phenomenon in US foreign policy. As the author argues, it is merely a continuation of Bill Clinton’s foreign policy and is deeply rooted in both the foreign policy traditions of Jacksonianism and Wilsonianism. The analysis concludes that Clinton used unilateralist foreign policy with a 'smile' whereas the Bush administration uses it with an attitude.
The military in Mexico started out as a revolutionary army that secured the regime of the governmental party PRI. The article discusses the change of this army into a national and hemispheric police force under the influence of the USA. Today, the functions of the Mexican army are a mix of fighting against drugs, organized delinquency, terrorism and counterinsurgency and cooperating with US as well as other Latin American forces.
Seit den 1980er Jahren nehmen die neuen sozialen Bewegungen in Lateinamerika an Bedeutung rapide zu. Nachhaltige Transformationsprozesse auszulösen steht dabei seit den 1990er Jahren – in Zeiten neoliberaler Globalisierung und steigender Armut – im Zentrum gesellschaftlichen Handelns. Doch, angesichts der bestehenden globalen Strukturen, wie groß ist das Potenzial der neuen Welle sozialer Kräfte wirklich?
Mit dem Amtsantritt von Präsident Santos 2010 hat sich das politische Klima in Kolumbien spürbar verändert. Der ehemalige Verteidigungsminister Uribes distanziert sich von seinem einstigen Vorgesetzten: Außenpolitisch sucht Santos Kontakt zu den Nachbarstaaten, im Land selbst darf wieder über den bewaffneten Konflikt mit der Guerilla diskutiert werden. An der neoliberalen Wirtschaftspolitik hält jedoch auch Präsident Santos fest.
Predictability of hydrologic response at the plot and catchment scales: Role of initial conditions
(2004)
This paper examines the effect of uncertain initial soil moisture on hydrologic response at the plot scale (1 m2) and the catchment scale (3.6 km2) in the presence of threshold transitions between matrix and preferential flow. We adopt the concepts of microstates and macrostates from statistical mechanics. The microstates are the detailed patterns of initial soil moisture that are inherently unknown, while the macrostates are specified by the statistical distributions of initial soil moisture that can be derived from the measurements typically available in field experiments. We use a physically based model and ensure that it closely represents the processes in the Weiherbach catchment, Germany. We then use the model to generate hydrologic response to hypothetical irrigation events and rainfall events for multiple realizations of initial soil moisture microstates that are all consistent with the same macrostate. As the measures of uncertainty at the plot scale we use the coefficient of variation and the scaled range of simulated vertical bromide transport distances between realizations. At the catchment scale we use similar statistics derived from simulated flood peak discharges. The simulations indicate that at both scales the predictability depends on the average initial soil moisture state and is at a minimum around the soil moisture value where the transition from matrix to macropore flow occurs. The predictability increases with rainfall intensity. The predictability increases with scale with maximum absolute errors of 90 and 32% at the plot scale and the catchment scale, respectively. It is argued that even if we assume perfect knowledge on the processes, the level of detail with which one can measure the initial conditions along with the nonlinearity of the system will set limits to the repeatability of experiments and limits to the predictability of models at the plot and catchment scales.
The article starts with an overview of modernization theories, its history of ups and downs as well as its present status. This first part is followed by an analysis of basic social structure distributions and trends in human development in selected countries. One major focal point of the paper is the Non-Western world and the Arab countries, in particular. The author looks at modernization and modernity in that region and comes to the conclusion that the Western world can no longer expect to be able to simply export its own values and its way of life to the rest of the world.
Wie stabil ist die Außenpolitik der Großen Koalition? Aufgrund ihrer Position als stellvertretende außenpolitische Sprecherin der SPD ist es der Autorin möglich, neben den Gemeinsamkeiten auch die entscheidenden Unterschiede zu beleuchten. Vor dem Hintergrund mehrerer Beispiele, wie dem EU-Beitritt der Türkei, stellt sie den Konsens zwischen CDU/ CSU und SPD als fragil heraus.
Iranische Präsidentschaftswahlen sind immer für eine Überraschung gut. Noch eine Woche vor der Wahl dürften die wenigsten mit einem Erdrutschsieg Hassan Rouhanis gerechnet haben. Der neue Mann ist dabei ein Altbekannter. Zahlreiche Posten hat er in der Islamischen Republik bereits bekleidet und sich als Chefunterhändler auch im Ausland einen Namen gemacht. Welche Erwartungen werden an ihn gerichtet und welche Herausforderungen gilt es nun zu meistern?
"Tatsächlich steht das offiziell verkündete Wahlergebnis nicht im Widerspruch zu einer im Mai landesweit durchgeführten Umfrage eines US-Forschungsinstituts. Dieses sah Ahmadinedschad klar vor seinem größten Konkurrenten Mussavi. Vermeintliche Quellen aus dem iranischen Innenministerium dagegen sprachen nach der Wahl von einem Erdrutschsieg Mussavis. Indizien für einen Betrug gibt es viele..."
Die zehnten Präsidentschaftswahlen im Iran sorgten für einen Eklat. Ausgerechnet im Jubiläumsjahr, in dem man sich mit Stolz präsentieren wollte, erlebt die Islamische Republik ihren größten Legitimitätsverlust. Mit der Verkündung von Ahmadinedschads Wahlsieg löste das Regime eine Welle der Empörung aus, die bis heute nicht abgeklungen ist. Zwar konnten die Proteste den amtierenden Präsidenten nicht von seiner zweiten Amtszeit abhalten, doch der grüne Sommer hat seine Spuren in der Theokratie hinterlassen.
The border between Germany and Poland today is undisputed and definite, and thought to promote great co-operation and a culture of good-neighbourliness. Relations between the two governments are progressing nicely. But public opinion and behaviour are still lagging behind. The author describes how thought and emotions on the Polish side are still influenced by memories of the past, especially of the German occupation during the Second World War, and the slow pace of progress in overcoming that memory. He shows that the "shadows of history" have strongly influenced Polish politics in the context of German reunification. Special emphasis is given to the role of the Catholic Church in the controversial debate on the relations towards Germany in the 1950s and 1960s.
Die vier Buchrezensionenum die Islamische Republik Iran spiegeln die ganze Bandbreite des Dilemmas im Umgang mit dem politisch gewichtigsten und auch umstrittensten Land im Nahen Osten wider. Sie zeigen die tiefe Spaltung, die in der Publizistik gegenüber diesem Land existiert; sei es in der Presse oder Fachliteratur.
The transition and transformation within the three countries dealt with are still in process. In her essay, the author analyses whether there is a need for Poland to re-define its relationship to Germany and Russia, whilst searching for a new identity and a new place within Europe. She argues that there is a set of historical and geopolitical reasons for doing so. But whilst the Polish aim is to normalise its relationship to its neighbours, the perception of Russians and Germans in Poland is rather different. On the one hand, in the Polish people opinion, Germany is the main promoter of their European institutional integration wishes. On the other, relatively aggressive attitude towards Russia can also be identified. The essay is a strong plea for mutual responsibility and co-operation in favour of peace and security in Europe. Additionally Russia is to be regarded as part of European history, and should thus be involved in the European political process.
"Woher kommt eigentlich ...?" : Sprachberatung und Sprachgeschichte an der Universität Potsdam
(2005)
Germany gained its unity, but the restoration of virtual national cohesion presents itself as a lasting problem. The rebuilding of common national identity forms one complex aspect. Particular West and East German political, social and cultural features still exist. The East Germans brought elements of a peculiar identity into the unity; as a repercussion of some setbacks in their position and of some actual inter-German distinctions, their peculiarities are not yet in retreat. They prolong their role as conventional feelings, in temporary behaviours as an answer to their actual stance, and to a certain extent also with traits staged and suggested by entrenched media interpretations about the presently hampered inter-German evolution.
Die NATO gilt als das erfolgreichste Militärbündnis der Geschichte. Dabei war sie immer zugleich auch ein politisches Bündnis. Notwendig ist die aktuelle Selbstvergewisserung zu Zweck und Hauptaufgaben. Verteidigung, Stabilisierung Europas und internationale Friedensmissionen werden dazu gehören. Wichtig bleibt ein gemeinsamer Wille zum praktischen Untersetzen durch verbesserte militärische Fähigkeiten. Die Allianz sollte das spezifische militärische Instrument in die breiteren internationalen sicherheitsrelevanten Bemühungen einbringen.
Based on the discussion on Germany´s new 'central location', the author tries to sketch Germany´s geopolitical position in view of the constellation of powers in Europe from a national point of view. This favourable position offers a great chance for the country to play an active role in Europe’s integration. However, German historical heritage as well as the delicate relationship of Germany´s political elite to the use of power are reasons for the country´s hesitation to fulfill her neighbours’ and her allies’ expectations. Anyhow, Summaries 192 rooted in the West-European and transatlantic integration is Germany the natural dooropener for its Eastern, South-Eastern and Baltic neighbours to become 'members of the club'. )</a> Jahresabo: 40,00 € (ermäßigt: 25,00 €)
The paper presents a simulation and parameter-estimation approach for evaluating stochastic patterns of population growth and spread of an annual forest herb, Melampyrum pratense (Orobanchaceae). The survival of a species during large-scale changes in land use and climate will depend, to a considerable extent, on its dispersal and colonisation abilities. Predictions on species migration need a combination of field studies and modelling efforts. Our study on the ability of M. pratense to disperse into so far unoccupied areas was based on experiments in secondary woodland in NE Germany. Experiments started in 1997 at three sites where the species was not yet present, with 300 seeds sown within one square meter. Population development was then recorded until 2001 by mapping of individuals with a resolution of 5 cm. Additional observations considered density dependence of seed production. We designed a spatially explicit individual-based computer simulation model to explain the spatial patterns of population development and to predict future population spread. Besides primary drop of seeds (barochory) it assumed secondary seed transport by ants (myrmecochory) with an exponentially decreasing dispersal tail. An important feature of populationpattern explanation was the simultaneous estimation of both population-growth and dispersal parameters from consistent spatio-temporal data sets. As the simulation model produced stochastic time series and random spatially discrete distributions of individuals we estimated parameters by minimising the expectation of weighted sums of squares. These sums-ofsquares criteria considered population sizes, radial population distributions around the area of origin and distributions of individuals within squares of 25*25 cm, the range of density action. Optimal parameter values, together with the precision of the estimates, were obtained from calculating sums of squares in regular grids of parameter values. Our modelling results showed that transport of fractions of seeds by ants over distances of 1…2 m was indispensable for explaining the observed population spread that led to distances of at most 8 m from population origin within 3 years. Projections of population development over 4 additional years gave a diffusion-like increase of population area without any “outposts”. This prediction generated by the simulation model gave a hypothesis which should be revised by additional field observations. Some structural deviations between observations and model output already indicated that for full understanding of population spread the set of dispersal mechanisms assumed in the model may have to be extended by additional features of plant-animal mutualism.