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The knowledge of the largest expected earthquake magnitude in a region is one of the key issues in probabilistic seismic hazard calculations and the estimation of worst-case scenarios. Earthquake catalogues are the most informative source of information for the inference of earthquake magnitudes. We analysed the earthquake catalogue for Central Asia with respect to the largest expected magnitudes m(T) in a pre-defined time horizon T-f using a recently developed statistical methodology, extended by the explicit probabilistic consideration of magnitude errors. For this aim, we assumed broad error distributions for historical events, whereas the magnitudes of recently recorded instrumental earthquakes had smaller errors. The results indicate high probabilities for the occurrence of large events (M >= 8), even in short time intervals of a few decades. The expected magnitudes relative to the assumed maximum possible magnitude are generally higher for intermediate-depth earthquakes (51-300 km) than for shallow events (0-50 km). For long future time horizons, for example, a few hundred years, earthquakes with M >= 8.5 have to be taken into account, although, apart from the 1889 Chilik earthquake, it is probable that no such event occurred during the observation period of the catalogue.
In this paper, an underground experiment at the Aspo Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) is described. Main goal is optimizing geothermal heat exchange in crystalline rock mass at depth by multistage hydraulic fracturing with minimal impact on the environment, that is, seismic events. For this, three arrays with acoustic emission, microseismicity and electromagnetic sensors are installed mapping hydraulic fracture initiation and growth. Fractures are driven by three different water injection schemes (continuous, progressive and pulse pressurization). After a brief review of hydraulic fracture operations in crystalline rock mass at mine scale, the site geology and the stress conditions at Aspo HRL are described. Then, the continuous, single-flow rate and alternative, multiple-flow rate fracture breakdown tests in a horizontal borehole at depth level 410 m are described together with the monitoring networks and sensitivity. Monitoring results include the primary catalogue of acoustic emission hypocentres obtained from four hydraulic fractures with the in situ trigger and localizing network. The continuous versus alternative water injection schemes are discussed in terms of the fracture breakdown pressure, the fracture pattern from impression packer result and the monitoring at the arrays. An example of multistage hydraulic fracturing with several phases of opening and closing of fracture walls is evaluated using data from acoustic emissions, seismic broad-band recordings and electromagnetic signal response. Based on our limited amount of in situ tests (six) and evaluation of three tests in Avro granodiorite, in the multiple-flow rate test with progressively increasing target pressure, the acoustic emission activity starts at a later stage in the fracturing process compared to the conventional fracturing case with continuous water injection. In tendency, also the total number and magnitude of acoustic events are found to be smaller in the progressive treatment with frequent phases of depressurization.
This review analyzes the potential role and long-term effects of field perennial polycultures (mixtures) in agricultural systems, with the aim of reducing the trade-offs between provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. First, crop rotations are identified as a suitable tool for the assessment of the long-term effects of perennial polycultures on ecosystem services, which are not visible at the single-crop level. Second, the ability of perennial polycultures to support ecosystem services when used in crop rotations is quantified through eight agricultural ecosystem services. Legume-grass mixtures and wildflower mixtures are used as examples of perennial polycultures, and compared with silage maize as a typical crop for biomass production. Perennial polycultures enhance soil fertility, soil protection, climate regulation, pollination, pest and weed control, and landscape aesthetics compared with maize. They also score lower for biomass production compared with maize, which confirms the trade-off between provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. However, the additional positive factors provided by perennial polycultures, such as reduced costs for mineral fertilizer, pesticides, and soil tillage, and a significant preceding crop effect that increases the yields of subsequent crops, should be taken into account. However, a full assessment of agricultural ecosystem services requires a more holistic analysis that is beyond the capabilities of current frameworks.
In the era of the Internet of Things and Big Data modern cars have become mobile electronic systems or computers on wheels. Car sensors record a multitude of car and traffic related data as well as environmental parameters outside the vehicle. The data recorded are spatio-temporal by nature (floating car data) and can thus be classified as geodata. Their geospatial potential is, however, not fully exploited so far. In this paper, we present an approach to collect, process and visualize floating car data for traffic-and environment-related applications. It is demonstrated that cartographic visualization, in particular, is as effective means to make the enormous stocks of machine-recorded data available to human perception, exploration and analysis.
Platinum electrodes were implanted into the xylem of a lime tree (Tilia cordata) stem and solar- induced electrochemical potential differences of up to 120 mV were measured during the vegetative period and up to 30 mV in winter. The time dependent curves were found to be delayed with respect to solar radiation, sap flow activity, temperature and vapor pressure deficit. A general equation for the potential difference was derived and simplified by analyzing the effect of temperature and tensile strength. The potential determining influence of oxygen concentration on the respective location of the platinum electrode was identified as the principal phenomenon measured. A systematic analysis and investigation of the observed periodic oxygen concentration signals promises new information on sap flow, oxygen diffusion through tree tissues and on oxygen consumption related to the energy turnover in tree tissues.
The changing climate in the Arctic has a profound impact on permafrost coasts, which are subject to intensified thermokarst formation and erosion. Consequently, terrestrial organic matter (OM) is mobilized and transported into the nearshore zone. Yet, little is known about the fate of mobilized OM before and after entering the ocean. In this study we investigated a retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) on Qikiqtaruk - Herschel Island (Yukon coast, Canada). The RTS was classified into an undisturbed, a disturbed (thermokarst-affected) and a nearshore zone and sampled systematically along transects. Samples were analyzed for total and dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen (TOC, DOC, TN, DN), stable carbon isotopes (delta C-13-TOC, delta C-13-DOC), and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), which were compared between the zones. C/N-ratios, delta C-13 signatures, and ammonium (NH4-N) concentrations were used as indicators for OM degradation along with biomarkers (n-alkanes, n-fatty adds, n-alcohols). Our results show that OM significantly decreases after disturbance with a TOC and DOC loss of 77 and 55% and a TN and DN loss of 53 and 48%, respectively. C/N-ratios decrease significantly, whereas NH4-N concentrations slightly increase in freshly thawed material. In the nearshore zone, OM contents are comparable to the disturbed zone. We suggest that the strong decrease in OM is caused by initial dilution with melted massive ice and immediate offshore transport via the thaw stream. In the mudpool and thaw stream, OM is subject to degradation, whereas in the slump floor the nitrogen decrease is caused by recolonizing vegetation. Within the nearshore zone of the ocean, heavier portions of OM are directly buried in marine sediments close to shore. We conclude that RTS have profound impacts on coastal environments in the Arctic. They mobilize nutrients from permafrost, substantially decrease OM contents and provide fresh water and nutrients at a point source.
The Himalayan thrust belt comprises three in-sequence foreland-propagating orogen-scale faults, the Main Central thrust, the Main Boundary thrust, and the Main Frontal thrust. Recently, the Munsiari–Ramgarh–Shumar thrust system has been recognized as an additional, potentially orogen-scale shear zone in the proximal footwall of the Main Central thrust. The timing of the Munsiari, Ramgarh, and Shumar thrusts and their role in Himalayan tectonics are disputed. We present 31 new zircon (U–Th)/He ages from a profile across the central Himachal Himalaya in the Beas River area. Within a ∼40 km wide belt northeast of the Kullu–Larji–Rampur window, ages ranging from to constrain a distinct episode of rapid Pliocene to Present exhumation; north and south of this belt, zircon (U–Th)/He ages are older ( to ). We attribute the Pliocene rapid exhumation episode to basal accretion to the Himalayan thrust belt and duplex formation in the Lesser Himalayan sequence including initiation of the Munsiari thrust. Pecube thermokinematic modelling suggests exhumation rates of ∼2–3 mm/yr from 4–7 to 0 Ma above the duplex contrasting with lower (<0.3 mm/yr) middle-late Miocene exhumation rates. The Munsiari thrust terminates laterally in central Himachal Pradesh. In the NW Indian Himalaya, the Main Central thrust zone comprises the sheared basal sections of the Greater Himalayan sequence and the mylonitic ‘Bajaura nappe’ of Lesser Himalayan affinity. We correlate the Bajaura unit with the Ramgarh thrust sheet in Nepal based on similar lithologies and the middle Miocene age of deformation. The Munsiari thrust in the central Himachal Himalaya is several Myr younger than deformation in the Bajaura and Ramgarh thrust sheets. Our results illustrate the complex and segmented nature of the Munsiari–Ramgarh–Shumar thrust system.
The influence of major Quaternary climatic changes on growth and decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and associated erosional impact on the landscapes, is virtually unknown beyond the last deglaciation. Here we quantify exposure and denudation histories in west Greenland by applying a novel Markov-Chain Monte Carlo modelling approach to all available paired cosmogenic Be-10-Al-26 bedrock data from Greenland. We find that long-term denudation rates in west Greenland range from >50 m Myr(-1) in low-lying areas to similar to 2 m Myr(-1) at high elevations, hereby quantifying systematic variations in denudation rate among different glacial landforms caused by variations in ice thickness across the landscape. We furthermore show that the present day ice-free areas only were ice covered ca. 45% of the past 1 million years, and even less at high-elevation sites, implying that the Greenland Ice Sheet for much of the time was of similar size or even smaller than today.
Intraplate seismicity is often characterized by episodic, clustered and migrating earthquakes and extended after-shock sequences. Can these observations - primarily from North America, China and Australia - usefully be applied to seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe? Existing assessments are based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past c. 1000 years, as well as some data for active faults. This time span probably fails to capture typical large-event recurrence intervals of the order of tens of thousands of years. Palaeoseismology helps to lengthen the observation window, but preferentially produces data in regions suspected to be seismically active. Thus the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are fairly uncertain, possibly underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues particularly arise in considering the hazards posed by low-probability events to both heavily populated areas and critical facilities. For example, are the variations in seismicity (and thus assumed seismic hazard) along the Rhine Graben a result of short sampling or are they real? In addition to a better assessment of hazards with new data and models, it is important to recognize and communicate uncertainties in hazard estimates. The more users know about how much confidence to place in hazard maps, the more effectively the maps can be used.
Laudatio
(2017)
Statistics Canada, Canada’s national statistics agency, offers a suite of spatial
files for mapping and analysis of its various population data products. The following
article showcases possibilities and shortfalls of the existing spatial files
for mapping population data, and provides an overview of the structure of the
available boundary files from the regional to the dissemination block level. Due
to Canada’s highly dispersed population, mapping its distribution and density can
be challenging. Common mapping techniques such as the choropleth method are
suitable only for mapping spatially high resolution data such as data at the dissemination
area level. To allow for mapping of population data at less detailed levels
such as census divisions or provinces, Statistics Canada has created a so-called
ecumene boundary file which outlines the inhabited area of Canada and can be
used to more accurately visualize Canada’s population distribution and density.
Die neoliberale Wende durchzieht seit den 1990er Jahren alle wesentlichen Bereiche der deutschen Gesellschaft, angefangen bei der Unternehmensführung über Fragen der kommunalen Selbstverwaltung sowie staatlicher Daseinsfürsorge bis hin zur schulischen Bildung. Insbesondere (gesellschafts-)kritische Wissenschaftler/innen beanstanden die hegemoniale Stellung neoliberaler Argumentationen. Ihre Kritik: Die neoliberale Logik wird aufgrund ihres „Common sense“-Charakters zu einer alternativlosen Wahrheit stilisiert.
Ziel des Buches ist es, in kritischer Haltung die (Un-)Sichtbarkeit neoliberaler Argumentationen in ausgewählten Schulbüchern sowie den Rahmenlehrplänen Geographie des Landes Brandenburg zu analysieren sowie das Ergebnis im Kontext einer historischen Rekonstruktion des Unterrichtsfaches zu deuten. Thematisch begrenzt sich die Analyse dabei auf stadtgeographische Fragestellungen. Letztlich wird der Versuch unternommen, ausgehend von einer politischen bildenden Geographie, einen unterrichtspraktischen Zugang zur Neoliberalisierung des Urbanen aufzuzeigen.
In this paper, the applicability of deep downhole geoelectrical monitoring for detecting CO2 related signatures is evaluated after a nearly ten year period of CO2 storage at the Ketzin pilot site. Deep downhole electrode arrays have been studied as part of a multi-physical monitoring concept at four CO2 pilot test sites worldwide so far. For these sites, it was considered important to implement the geoelectrical method into the measurement program of tracking the CO2 plume. Analyzing the example of the Ketzin site, it can be seen that during all phases of the CO2 storage reservoir development the resistivity measurements and their corresponding tomographic interpretation contribute in a beneficial manner to the measurement, monitoring and verification (MMV) protocol. The most important impact of a permanent electrode array is its potential as tool for estimating reservoir saturations.
Understanding the distribution of species is fundamental for biodiversity conservation, ecosystem management, and increasingly also for climate impact assessment. The presence of a species in a given site depends on physiological limitations (abiotic factors), interactions with other species (biotic factors), migratory or dispersal processes (site accessibility) as well as the continuing
effects of past events, e.g. disturbances (site legacy). Existing approaches to predict species distributions either (i) correlate observed species occurrences with environmental variables describing abiotic limitations, thus ignoring biotic interactions, dispersal and legacy effects (statistical species distribution model, SDM); or (ii) mechanistically model the variety of processes determining species distributions (process-based model, PBM). SDMs are widely used due to their easy applicability and ability to handle varied data qualities. But they fail to reproduce the dynamic response of species distributions to changing conditions. PBMs are expected to be superior in this respect, but they need very specific data unavailable for many species, and are often more complex and require more computational effort. More recently, hybrid models link the two approaches to combine their respective strengths.
In this thesis, I apply and compare statistical and process-based approaches to predict species distributions, and I discuss their respective limitations, specifically for applications in changing environments. Detailed analyses of SDMs for boreal tree species in Finland reveal that nonclimatic predictors - edaphic properties and biotic interactions - are important limitations at the treeline, contesting the assumption of unrestricted, climatically induced range expansion. While the estimated SDMs are successful within their training data range, spatial and temporal model transfer fails. Mapping and comparing sampled predictor space among data subsets identifies spurious extrapolation as the plausible explanation for limited model transferability. Using these findings, I analyze the limited success of an established PBM (LPJ-GUESS) applied to the same problem. Examination of process representation and parameterization in the PBM identifies implemented processes to adjust (competition between species, disturbance) and missing processes that are crucial in boreal forests (nutrient limitation, forest management). Based on climatic correlations shifting over time, I stress the restricted temporal transferability of bioclimatic limits used in LPJ-GUESS and similar PBMs. By critically assessing the performance of SDM and PBM in this application, I demonstrate the importance of understanding the limitations of the
applied methods.
As a potential solution, I add a novel approach to the repertoire of existing hybrid models. By simulation experiments with an individual-based PBM which reproduces community dynamics resulting from biotic factors, dispersal and legacy effects, I assess the resilience of coastal vegetation to abrupt hydrological changes. According to the results of the resilience analysis, I then modify temporal SDM predictions, thereby transferring relevant process detail from PBM to
SDM. The direction of knowledge transfer from PBM to SDM avoids disadvantages of current hybrid models and increases the applicability of the resulting model in long-term, large-scale applications. A further advantage of the proposed framework is its flexibility, as it is readily extended to other model types, disturbance definitions and response characteristics.
Concluding, I argue that we already have a diverse range of promising modelling tools at hand, which can be refined further. But most importantly, they need to be applied more thoughtfully. Bearing their limitations in mind, combining their strengths and openly reporting underlying assumptions and uncertainties is the way forward.
Volcano dome deformation processes analysed with high resolution InSAR and camera-based techniques
(2017)
In many regions of the world, snow accumulation and melt constitute important components of the hydrologic cycle. With the objective to improve model performance of the hydrological model WASA-SED (Water Availability in Semi-Arid environments - SEDiments) in catchments affected by snow and ice, a physically-based snow routine has been implemented into the model. The snow routine bases on the energy-balance method of the ECHSE (Eco-hydrological Simulation Environment) software. A first test application has been conducted in two sub-basins of the Isábena river catchment (Central Spanish Pre-Pyrenees). Results were validated using satellite-derived snow cover data. Furthermore, a rainfall gauge correction algorithm to restore the liquid precipitation signal of measurements affected by solid precipitation was applied. The snow module proved to be able to capture the dynamics of the snow cover forming during the cold months of the year. The temporary storage of water in the snow cover is able to improve simulations of river discharge. General patterns of the temporal evolution of observed and simulated snow cover fractions coincide. The work conducted only represents a first step in the process of implementation and evaluation of a physically-based snow routine into WASA-SED. Future work is necessary to further improve and test the snow routine and to resolve difficulties that occurred during model applications in the catchment.
The uplift of the Shillong Plateau, in northeast India between the Bengal floodplain and the Himalaya Mountains, has had a significant impact on regional precipitation patterns, strain partitioning, and the path of the Brahmaputra River. Today, the plateau receives the highest measured yearly rainfall in the world and is tectonically active, having hosted one of the strongest intra-plate earthquakes ever recorded. Despite the unique tectonic and climatic setting of this prominent landscape feature, its exhumation and surface uplift history are poorly constrained. We collected 14 detrital river sand and 3 bedrock samples from the southern margin of the Shillong Plateau to measure erosion rates using the terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide 10Be. The calculated bedrock erosion rates range from 2.0 to 5.6 m My−1, whereas catchment average erosion rates from detrital river sands range from 48 to 214 m My−1. These rates are surprisingly low in the context of steep, tectonically active slopes and extreme rainfall. Moreover, the highest among these rates, which occur on the low-relief plateau surface, appear to have been affected by anthropogenic land-use change. To determine the onset of surface uplift, we coupled the catchment averaged erosion rates with topographic analyses of the plateau's southern margin. We interpolated an inclined, pre-incision surface from minimally eroded remnants along the valley interfluves and calculated the eroded volume of the valleys carved beneath the surface. The missing volume was then divided by the volume flux derived from the erosion rates to obtain the onset of uplift. The results of this calculation, ranging from 3.0 to 5.0 Ma for individual valleys, are in agreement with several lines of stratigraphic evidence from the Brahmaputra and Bengal basin that constrain the onset of topographic uplift, specifically the onset of flexural loading and the transgression from deltaic to marine deposition. Ultimately, our data corroborate the hypothesis that surface uplift was decoupled from the onset of rapid exhumation, which occurred several millions of years earlier.
Das in den USA bereits weit verbreitete Predictive Policing, die vorhersagende
Polizeiarbeit, entwickelt sich seit zwei bis drei Jahren auch auf dem deutschen
Sicherheitsmarkt sehr dynamisch. Unter Nutzung und Weiterentwicklung von
Geographischen Informationssystemen sowie raumbasierter Algorithmen und
Modellierungen werden für beliebige Orte die Auftrittswahrscheinlichkeiten von
Straftaten ermittelt. In der Praxis erhält damit die Polizei ortsbezogene Hinweise
für die strategische Planung ihrer Einsätze. Für die Humangeographie und die
Geoinformatik ist Predictive Policing also ein äußerst interessantes Beobachtungsund
Betätigungsfeld, das in diesem Beitrag unter die Lupe genommen werden soll.
Dabei wird es weniger um die GIS-technischen und mathematisch-statistischen
Hintergründe des Predictive Policing gehen. Vielmehr sollen einige Gedanken
geäußert werden, weshalb sich dieses Instrument auf dem Sicherheitsmarkt etablieren
konnte und über welche Potenziale und Grenzen des Predictive Policing
von Vertreter(inne)n aus Politik, Polizei, Kriminalsoziologie und Geographie diskutiert
wird.
This article discusses the results of a taxonomic and ecological investigation of diatoms from polygonal ponds and Quaternary permafrost deposits of Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island (New Siberian Archipelago) and the reconstruction of climatic changes on the Island during late Pleistocene/Holocene transition using fossil diatom assemblages from the permafrost deposits. The taxonomic list of diatoms includes 159 diatom species. The main ecological factors that determine the distribution of diatoms in the investigated data set are mean July air temperature, рН, electrical conductivity, water depth, and concentrations of Si4+ and Al3+. An increase in water depth and stable lacustrine conditions in the Lateglacial–Holocene in the ancient thermokarst lake relate to Lateglacial warming before 11860 ± 160 years BP and during the early Holocene between 11210 ± 160 and 7095 ± 60 years BP.