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We consider the problem of discrete time filtering (intermittent data assimilation) for differential equation models and discuss methods for its numerical approximation. The focus is on methods based on ensemble/particle techniques and on the ensemble Kalman filter technique in particular. We summarize as well as extend recent work on continuous ensemble Kalman filter formulations, which provide a concise dynamical systems formulation of the combined dynamics-assimilation problem. Possible extensions to fully nonlinear ensemble/particle based filters are also outlined using the framework of optimal transportation theory.
We are interested in modeling some two-level population dynamics, resulting from the interplay of ecological interactions and phenotypic variation of individuals (or hosts) and the evolution of cells (or parasites) of two types living in these individuals. The ecological parameters of the individual dynamics depend on the number of cells of each type contained by the individual and the cell dynamics depends on the trait of the invaded individual. Our models are rooted in the microscopic description of a random (discrete) population of individuals characterized by one or several adaptive traits and cells characterized by their type. The population is modeled as a stochastic point process whose generator captures the probabilistic dynamics over continuous time of birth, mutation and death for individuals and birth and death for cells. The interaction between individuals (resp. between cells) is described by a competition between individual traits (resp. between cell types). We look for tractable large population approximations. By combining various scalings on population size, birth and death rates and mutation step, the single microscopic model is shown to lead to contrasting nonlinear macroscopic limits of different nature: deterministic approximations, in the form of ordinary, integro- or partial differential equations, or probabilistic ones, like stochastic partial differential equations or superprocesses. The study of the long time behavior of these processes seems very hard and we only develop some simple cases enlightening the difficulties involved.
We develop a multigrid, multiple time stepping scheme to reduce computational efforts for calculating complex stress interactions in a strike-slip 2D planar fault for the simulation of seismicity. The key elements of the multilevel solver are separation of length scale, grid-coarsening, and hierarchy. In this study the complex stress interactions are split into two parts: the first with a small contribution is computed on a coarse level, and the rest for strong interactions is on a fine level. This partition leads to a significant reduction of the number of computations. The reduction of complexity is even enhanced by combining the multigrid with multiple time stepping. Computational efficiency is enhanced by a factor of 10 while retaining a reasonable accuracy, compared to the original full matrix-vortex multiplication. The accuracy of solution and computational efficiency depend on a given cut-off radius that splits multiplications into the two parts. The multigrid scheme is constructed in such a way that it conserves stress in the entire half-space.
We analyze a general class of difference operators H(epsilon) = T(epsilon) + V(epsilon) on l(2)((epsilon Z)(d)), where V(epsilon) is a one-well potential and epsilon is a small parameter. We construct formal asymptotic expansions of WKB-type for eigenfunctions associated with the low lying eigenvalues of H(epsilon). These are obtained from eigenfunctions or quasimodes for the operator H(epsilon), acting on L(2)(R(d)), via restriction to the lattice (epsilon Z)(d).
Asymptotic first exit times of the chafee-infante equation with small heavy-tailed levy noise
(2011)
This article studies the behavior of stochastic reaction-diffusion equations driven by additive regularly varying pure jump Levy noise in the limit of small noise intensity. It is shown that the law of the suitably renormalized first exit times from the domain of attraction of a stable state converges to an exponential law of parameter 1 in a strong sense of Laplace transforms, including exponential moments. As a consequence, the expected exit times increase polynomially in the inverse intensity, in contrast to Gaussian perturbations, where this growth is known to be of exponential rate.
In this paper, we propose a derivative-free method for recovering symmetric and non-symmetric potential functions of inverse Sturm-Liouville problems from the knowledge of eigenvalues. A class of boundary value methods obtained as an extension of Numerov's method is the major tool for approximating the eigenvalues in each Broyden iteration step. Numerical examples demonstrate that the method is able to reduce the number of iteration steps, in particular for non-symmetric potentials, without accuracy loss.
Processes with independent increments are characterized via a duality formula, including Malliavin derivative and difference operators. This result is based on a characterization of infinitely divisible random vectors by a functional equation. A construction of the difference operator by a variational method is introduced and compared to approaches used by other authors for L´evy processes involving the chaos decomposition. Finally we extend our method to characterize infinitely divisible random measures.
The problem of an ensemble Kalman filter when only partial observations are available is considered. In particular, the situation is investigated where the observational space consists of variables that are directly observable with known observational error, and of variables of which only their climatic variance and mean are given. To limit the variance of the latter poorly resolved variables a variance-limiting Kalman filter (VLKF) is derived in a variational setting. The VLKF for a simple linear toy model is analyzed and its range of optimal performance is determined. The VLKF is explored in an ensemble transform setting for the Lorenz-96 system, and it is shown that incorporating the information of the variance of some unobservable variables can improve the skill and also increase the stability of the data assimilation procedure.
Atomic oscillations present in classical molecular dynamics restrict the step size that can be used. Multiple time stepping schemes offer only modest improvements, and implicit integrators are costly and inaccurate. The best approach may be to actually remove the highest frequency oscillations by constraining bond lengths and bond angles, thus permitting perhaps a 4-fold increase in the step size. However, omitting degrees of freedom produces errors in statistical averages, and rigid angles do not bend for strong excluded volume forces. These difficulties can be addressed by an enhanced treatment of holonomic constrained dynamics using ideas from papers of Fixman (1974) and Reich (1995, 1999). In particular, the 1995 paper proposes the use of "flexible" constraints, and the 1999 paper uses a modified potential energy function with rigid constraints to emulate flexible constraints. Presented here is a more direct and rigorous derivation of the latter approach, together with justification for the use of constraints in molecular modeling. With rigor comes limitations, so practical compromises are proposed: simplifications of the equations and their judicious application when assumptions are violated. Included are suggestions for new approaches.
We propose a novel strategy for global sensitivity analysis of ordinary differential equations. It is based on an error-controlled solution of the partial differential equation (PDE) that describes the evolution of the probability density function associated with the input uncertainty/variability. The density yields a more accurate estimate of the output uncertainty/variability, where not only some observables (such as mean and variance) but also structural properties (e.g., skewness, heavy tails, bi-modality) can be resolved up to a selected accuracy. For the adaptive solution of the PDE Cauchy problem we use the Rothe method with multiplicative error correction, which was originally developed for the solution of parabolic PDEs. We show that, unlike in parabolic problems, conservation properties necessitate a coupling of temporal and spatial accuracy to avoid accumulation of spatial approximation errors over time. We provide convergence conditions for the numerical scheme and suggest an implementation using approximate approximations for spatial discretization to efficiently resolve the coupling of temporal and spatial accuracy. The performance of the method is studied by means of low-dimensional case studies. The favorable properties of the spatial discretization technique suggest that this may be the starting point for an error-controlled sensitivity analysis in higher dimensions.
We discuss to what extent a given earthquake catalog and the assumption of a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution for the earthquake magnitudes allow for the calculation of confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude M. We show that, without further assumptions such as the existence of an upper bound of M, only very limited information may be obtained. In a frequentist formulation, for each confidence level alpha the confidence interval diverges with finite probability. In a Bayesian formulation, the posterior distribution of the upper magnitude is not normalizable. We conclude that the common approach to derive confidence intervals from the variance of a point estimator fails. Technically, this problem can be overcome by introducing an upper bound (M) over tilde for the maximum magnitude. Then the Bayesian posterior distribution can be normalized, and its variance decreases with the number of observed events. However, because the posterior depends significantly on the choice of the unknown value of (M) over tilde, the resulting confidence intervals are essentially meaningless. The use of an informative prior distribution accounting for pre-knowledge of M is also of little use, because the prior is only modified in the case of the occurrence of an extreme event. Our results suggest that the maximum possible magnitude M should be better replaced by M(T), the maximum expected magnitude in a given time interval T, for which the calculation of exact confidence intervals becomes straightforward. From a physical point of view, numerical models of the earthquake process adjusted to specific fault regions may be a powerful alternative to overcome the shortcomings of purely statistical inference.
We study a new approach to determine the asymptotic behaviour of quantum many-particle systems near coalescence points of particles which interact via singular Coulomb potentials. This problem is of fundamental interest in electronic structure theory in order to establish accurate and efficient models for numerical simulations. Within our approach, coalescence points of particles are treated as embedded geometric singularities in the configuration space of electrons. Based on a general singular pseudo-differential calculus, we provide a recursive scheme for the calculation of the parametrix and corresponding Green operator of a nonrelativistic Hamiltonian. In our singular calculus, the Green operator encodes all the asymptotic information of the eigenfunctions. Explicit calculations and an asymptotic representation for the Green operator of the hydrogen atom and isoelectronic ions are presented.
The goal of this paper is to establish the existence of a foliation of the asymptotic region of an asymptotically flat manifold with positive mass by surfaces which are critical points of the Willmore functional subject to an area constraint. Equivalently these surfaces are critical points of the Geroch-Hawking mass. Thus our result has applications in the theory of general relativity.
We consider a resonantly perturbed system of coupled nonlinear oscillators with small dissipation and outer periodic perturbation. We show that for the large time t similar to s(-2) one component of the system is described for the most part by the inhomogeneous Mathieu equation while the other component represents pulsation of large amplitude. A Hamiltonian system is obtained which describes for the most part the behavior of the envelope in a special case. The analytic results agree with numerical simulations.
For the Lagrangian L = G ln G where G is the Gauss-Bonnet curvature scalar we deduce the field equation and solve it in closed form for 3-flat Friedman models using a statefinder parametrization. Further we show, that among all lagrangians F(G) this L is the only one not having the form G^r with a real constant r but possessing a scale-invariant field equation. This turns out to be one of its analogies to f(R)-theories in 2-dimensional space-time. In the appendix, we systematically list several formulas for the decomposition of the Riemann tensor in arbitrary dimensions n, which are applied in the main deduction for n=4.
During preclinical development of a gestagenic drug, a significant increase of the total plasma concentration was observed after multiple dosing in pregnant rabbits, but not in (non-pregnant) rats or monkeys. We used a PBPK modeling approach in combination with in vitro and in vivo data to address the question to what extent the pharmacologically active free drug concentration is affected by pregnancy induced processes. In human, a significant increase in sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG), and an induction of hepatic CYP3A4 as well as plasma esterases is observed during pregnancy. We find that the observed increase in total plasma trough levels in rabbits can be explained as a combined result of (i) drug accumulation due to multiple dosing, (ii) increase of the binding protein SHBG, and (iii) clearance induction. For human, we predict that free drug concentrations in plasma would not increase during pregnancy above the steady state trough level for non-pregnant women.
The thermospheric crosswind velocities at an altitude of 400 km measured by an accelerometer on board of the CHAMP satellite are compared with the results of model calculations performed using the Upper Atmosphere Model (UAM). The results of measurements averaged over the year in 2003 reveal a two-vortex structure of high-latitude winds corresponding to magnetospheric-ionospheric convection of ions in the F2 ionosphere region. A similar picture with similar speed values was obtained in model calculations. A comparison of the crosswind speed obtained in individual measurements on October 28, 2003 with the corresponding model values revealed close agreement between them in some flights and differences in others. Taking into account the dependence of convection electric field on the B (y) component of interplanetary magnetic field sometimes improved agreement between thermospheric crosswind speeds obtained in model calculations and measured using the satellite.