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The "Lomonosov" space project is lead by Lomonosov Moscow State University in collaboration with the following key partners: Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Russia, University of California, Los Angeles (USA), University of Pueblo (Mexico), Sungkyunkwan University (Republic of Korea) and with Russian space industry organi-zations to study some of extreme phenomena in space related to astrophysics, astroparticle physics, space physics, and space biology. The primary goals of this experiment are to study:
-Ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR) in the energy range of the Greizen-ZatsepinKuzmin (GZK) cutoff;
-Ultraviolet (UV) transient luminous events in the upper atmosphere;
-Multi-wavelength study of gamma-ray bursts in visible, UV, gamma, and X-rays;
-Energetic trapped and precipitated radiation (electrons and protons) at low-Earth orbit (LEO) in connection with global geomagnetic disturbances;
-Multicomponent radiation doses along the orbit of spacecraft under different geomagnetic conditions and testing of space segments of optical observations of space-debris and other space objects;
-Instrumental vestibular-sensor conflict of zero-gravity phenomena during space flight.
This paper is directed towards the general description of both scientific goals of the project and scientific equipment on board the satellite. The following papers of this issue are devoted to detailed descriptions of scientific instruments.
Flooding is assessed as the most important natural hazard in Europe, causing thousands of deaths, affecting millions of people and accounting for large economic losses in the past decade. Little is known about the damage processes associated with extreme rainfall in cities, due to a lack of accurate, comparable and consistent damage data. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of extreme rainfall on residential buildings and how affected households coped with these impacts in terms of precautionary and emergency actions. Analyses are based on a unique dataset of damage characteristics and a wide range of potential damage explaining variables at the household level, collected through computer-aided telephone interviews (CATI) and an online survey. Exploratory data analyses based on a total of 859 completed questionnaires in the cities of Munster (Germany) and Amsterdam (the Netherlands) revealed that the uptake of emergency measures is related to characteristics of the hazardous event. In case of high water levels, more efforts are made to reduce damage, while emergency response that aims to prevent damage is less likely to be effective. The difference in magnitude of the events in Munster and Amsterdam, in terms of rainfall intensity and water depth, is probably also the most important cause for the differences between the cities in terms of the suffered financial losses. Factors that significantly contributed to damage in at least one of the case studies are water contamination, the presence of a basement in the building and people's awareness of the upcoming event. Moreover, this study confirms conclusions by previous studies that people's experience with damaging events positively correlates with precautionary behaviour. For improving future damage data acquisition, we recommend the inclusion of cell phones in a CATI survey to avoid biased sampling towards certain age groups.
Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval.
Past climatic change can be reconstructed from sedimentary archives by a number of proxies. However, few methods exist to directly estimate hydrological changes and even fewer result in quantitative data, impeding our understanding of the timing, magnitude and mechanisms of hydrological changes.
Here we present a novel approach based on delta H-2 values of sedimentary lipid biomarkers in combination with plant physiological modeling to extract quantitative information on past changes in relative humidity. Our initial application to an annually laminated lacustrine sediment sequence from western Europe deposited during the Younger Dryas cold period revealed relative humidity changes of up to 15% over sub-centennial timescales, leading to major ecosystem changes, in agreement with palynological data from the region. We show that by combining organic geochemical methods and mechanistic plant physiological models on well characterized lacustrine archives it is possible to extract quantitative ecohydrological parameters from sedimentary lipid biomarker delta H-2 data.
A comprehensive hydrometeorological dataset is presented spanning the period 1 January 201131 December 2014 to improve the understanding of the hydrological processes leading to flash floods and the relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116 km(2)) of the Mediterranean region. Badlands are present in the Auzon catchment and well connected to high-gradient channels of bedrock rivers which promotes the transfer of suspended solids downstream. The number of observed variables, the various sensors involved (both in situ and remote) and the space-time resolution (similar to km(2), similar to min) of this comprehensive dataset make it a unique contribution to research communities focused on hydrometeorology, surface hydrology and erosion. Given that rainfall is highly variable in space and time in this region, the observation system enables assessment of the hydrological response to rainfall fields. Indeed, (i) rainfall data are provided by rain gauges (both a research network of 21 rain gauges with a 5 min time step and an operational network of 10 rain gauges with a 5 min or 1 h time step), S-band Doppler dual-polarization radars (1 km(2), 5 min resolution), disdrometers (16 sensors working at 30 s or 1 min time step) and Micro Rain Radars (5 sensors, 100m height resolution). Additionally, during the special observation period (SOP-1) of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) project, two X-band radars provided precipitation measurements at very fine spatial and temporal scales (1 ha, 5 min). (ii) Other meteorological data are taken from the operational surface weather observation stations of Meteo-France (including 2m air temperature, atmospheric pressure, 2 m relative humidity, 10m wind speed and direction, global radiation) at the hourly time resolution (six stations in the region of interest). (iii) The monitoring of surface hydrology and suspended sediment is multi-scale and based on nested catchments. Three hydrometric stations estimate water discharge at a 2-10 min time resolution. Two of these stations also measure additional physico-chemical variables (turbidity, temperature, conductivity) and water samples are collected automatically during floods, allowing further geochemical characterization of water and suspended solids. Two experimental plots monitor overland flow and erosion at 1 min time resolution on a hillslope with vineyard. A network of 11 sensors installed in the intermittent hydrographic network continuously measures water level and water temperature in headwater subcatchments (from 0.17 to 116 km(2)) at a time resolution of 2-5 min. A network of soil moisture sensors enables the continuous measurement of soil volumetric water content at 20 min time resolution at 9 sites. Additionally, concomitant observations (soil moisture measurements and stream gauging) were performed during floods between 2012 and 2014. Finally, this dataset is considered appropriate for understanding the rainfall variability in time and space at fine scales, improving areal rainfall estimations and progressing in distributed hydrological and erosion modelling.
The unusual mix of morphological traits displayed by extinct South American native ungulates (SANUs) confounded both Charles Darwin, who first discovered them, and Richard Owen, who tried to resolve their relationships. Here we report an almost complete mitochondrial genome for the litoptern Macrauchenia. Our dated phylogenetic tree places Macrauchenia as sister to Perissodactyla, but close to the radiation of major lineages within Laurasiatheria. This position is consistent with a divergence estimate of B66Ma (95% credibility interval, 56.64-77.83 Ma) obtained for the split between Macrauchenia and other Panperissodactyla. Combined with their morphological distinctiveness, this evidence supports the positioning of Litopterna (possibly in company with other SANU groups) as a separate order within Laurasiatheria. We also show that, when using strict criteria, extinct taxa marked by deep divergence times and a lack of close living relatives may still be amenable to palaeogenomic analysis through iterative mapping against more distant relatives.
The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather.
Some algorithms exist which can detect the 2-D (latitude and longitude) jets' core around the hemisphere, but all of them use a minimal threshold to determine the subtropical and polar jet stream. This is particularly problematic for the polar jet stream, whose wind velocities can change rapidly from very weak to very high values and vice versa.
We develop a network-based scheme using Dijkstra's shortest-path algorithm to detect the polar and subtropical jet stream core. This algorithm not only considers the commonly used wind strength for core detection but also takes wind direction and climatological latitudinal position into account. Furthermore, it distinguishes between polar and subtropical jet, and between separate and merged jet states.
The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams.
We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere.
With this algorithm it is possible to investigate the position of the jets' cores around the hemisphere and it is therefore very suitable to analyze jet stream patterns in observations and models, enabling more advanced model-validation.
Processes driving the production, transformation and transport of methane (CH4) in wetland ecosystems are highly complex. We present a simple calculation algorithm to separate open-water CH4 fluxes measured with automatic chambers into diffusion- and ebullition-derived components. This helps to reveal underlying dynamics, to identify potential environmental drivers and, thus, to calculate reliable CH4 emission estimates. The flux separation is based on identification of ebullition-related sudden concentration changes during single measurements. Therefore, a variable ebullition filter is applied, using the lower and upper quartile and the interquartile range (IQR). Automation of data processing is achieved by using an established R script, adjusted for the purpose of CH4 flux calculation. The algorithm was validated by performing a laboratory experiment and tested using flux measurement data (July to September 2013) from a former fen grassland site, which converted into a shallow lake as a result of rewetting. Ebullition and diffusion contributed equally (46 and 55 %) to total CH4 emissions, which is comparable to ratios given in the literature. Moreover, the separation algorithm revealed a concealed shift in the diurnal trend of diffusive fluxes throughout the measurement period. The water temperature gradient was identified as one of the major drivers of diffusive CH4 emissions, whereas no significant driver was found in the case of erratic CH4 ebullition events.
In this combined theoretical and experimental study we report a full analysis of the resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (RIXS) spectra of H2O, D2O and HDO. We demonstrate that electronically-elastic RIXS has an inherent capability to map the potential energy surface and to perform vibrational analysis of the electronic ground state in multimode systems. We show that the control and selection of vibrational excitation can be performed by tuning the X-ray frequency across core-excited molecular bands and that this is clearly reflected in the RIXS spectra. Using high level ab initio electronic structure and quantum nuclear wave packet calculations together with high resolution RIXS measurements, we discuss in detail the mode coupling, mode localization and anharmonicity in the studied systems.
Landscape evolution models (LEMs) allow the study of earth surface responses to changing climatic and tectonic forcings. While much effort has been devoted to the development of LEMs that simulate a wide range of processes, the numerical accuracy of these models has received less attention. Most LEMs use first-order accurate numerical methods that suffer from substantial numerical diffusion. Numerical diffusion particularly affects the solution of the advection equation and thus the simulation of retreating landforms such as cliffs and river knickpoints. This has potential consequences for the integrated response of the simulated landscape. Here we test a higher-order flux-limiting finite volume method that is total variation diminishing (TVD-FVM) to solve the partial differential equations of river incision and tectonic displacement. We show that using the TVD-FVM to simulate river incision significantly influences the evolution of simulated landscapes and the spatial and temporal variability of catchment-wide erosion rates. Furthermore, a two-dimensional TVD-FVM accurately simulates the evolution of landscapes affected by lateral tectonic displacement, a process whose simulation was hitherto largely limited to LEMs with flexible spatial discretization. We implement the scheme in TTLEM (TopoToolbox Landscape Evolution Model), a spatially explicit, raster-based LEM for the study of fluvially eroding landscapes in TopoToolbox 2.
Background: Malaria is an old life-threatening parasitic disease that is still affecting many people, mainly children living in sub-Saharan Africa. Availability of effective antimalarial drugs played a significant role in the treatment and control of malaria. However, recent information on the emergence of P. falciparum parasites resistant to one of the artemisinin-based combination therapies suggests the need for discovery of new drug molecules. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the antiplasmodial activity of extracts, fractions and isolated compound from medicinal plants traditionally used in the treatment of malaria in Tanzania.
Methods: Dry powdered plant materials were extracted by cold macerations using different solvents. Norcaesalpin D was isolated by column chromatography from dichloromethane root extract of Caesalpinia bonducella and its structure was assigned based on the spectral data. Crude extracts, fractions and isolated compound were evaluated for antiplasmodial activity against chloroquine-sensitive P. falciparum (3D7), chloroquine-resistant P. falciparum (Dd2, K1) and artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum (IPC 5202 Battambang, IPC 4912 Mondolkiri) strains using the parasite lactate dehydrogenase assay.
Results: The results indicated that extracts of Erythrina schliebenii, Holarrhena pubescens, Dissotis melleri and C. bonducella exhibited antiplasmodial activity against Dd2 parasites. Ethanolic root extract of E. schliebenii had an IC50 of 1.87 mu g/mL while methanolic and ethanolic root extracts of H. pubescens exhibited an IC50 = 2.05 mu g/mL and IC50 = 2.43 mu g/mL, respectively. Fractions from H. pubescens and C. bonducella roots were found to be highly active against K1, Dd2 and artemisinin-resistant parasites. Norcaesalpin D from C. bonducella root extract was active with IC50 of 0.98, 1.85 and 2.13 mu g/mL against 3D7, Dd2 and IPC 4912-Mondolkiri parasites, respectively.
Conclusions: Antiplasmodial activity of norcaesalpin D and extracts of E. schliebenii, H. pubescens, D. melleri and C. bonducella reported in this study requires further attention for the discovery of antimalarial lead compounds for future drug development.
Assimilation of pseudo-tree-ring-width observations into an atmospheric general circulation model
(2017)
Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a promising technique to systematically combine the information from climate model simulations and proxy records. Here, we investigate the assimilation of tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies into an atmospheric global climate model using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques and a process-based tree-growth forward model as an observation operator. Our results, within a perfect-model experiment setting, indicate that the "online DA" approach did not outperform the "off-line" one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the nonlinear response of tree growth to surface temperature and soil moisture does deteriorate the operation of the time-averaged EnKF methodology. Moreover, for the first time we show that this skill loss appears significantly sensitive to the structure of the growth rate function, used to represent the principle of limiting factors (PLF) within the forward model. In general, our experiments showed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating pseudo-TRW chronologies is modulated by the magnitude of the yearly internal variability in themodel. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts.
The large variety of atmospheric circulation systems affecting the eastern Asian climate is reflected by the complex Asian vegetation distribution. Particularly in the transition zones of these circulation systems, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate-vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change and to obtain an ensemble of potential mid-Holocene biome distributions for eastern Asia, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere-ocean(-vegetation) models. The simulated biome changes are compared with pollen-based biome records for different key regions.
In all simulations, substantial biome shifts during the last 6000 years are confined to the high northern latitudes and the monsoon-westerly wind transition zone, but the temporal evolution and amplitude of change strongly depend on the climate forcing. Large parts of the southern tundra are replaced by taiga during the mid-Holocene due to a warmer growing season and the boreal treeline in northern Asia is shifted northward by approx. 4 degrees in the ensemble mean, ranging from 1.5 to 6 degrees in the individual simulations, respectively. This simulated treeline shift is in agreement with pollen-based reconstructions from northern Siberia. The desert fraction in the transition zone is reduced by 21% during the mid-Holocene compared to pre-industrial due to enhanced precipitation. The desert-steppe margin is shifted westward by 5 degrees (1-9 degrees in the individual simulations). The forest biomes are expanded north-westward by 2 degrees, ranging from 0 to 4 degrees in the single simulations. These results corroborate pollen-based reconstructions indicating an extended forest area in north-central China during the mid-Holocene. According to the model, the forest-to-non-forest and steppe-to-desert changes in the climate transition zones are spatially not uniform and not linear since the mid-Holocene.
Background: Rodents of the genus Rattus are among the most pervasive and successful invasive species, causing major vicissitudes in native ecological communities. A broad and flexible generalist diet has been suggested as key to the invasion success of Rattus spp. Here, we use an indirect approach to better understand foraging niche width, plasticity, and overlap within and between introduced Rattus spp. in anthropogenic habitats and natural humid forests of Madagascar.
Results: Based on stable carbon and nitrogen isotope values measured in hair samples of 589 individual rodents, we found that Rattus rattus had an extremely wide foraging niche, encompassing the isotopic space covered by a complete endemic forest-dwelling Malagasy small mammal community. Comparisons of Bayesian standard ellipses, as well as (multivariate) mixed-modeling analyses, revealed that the stable isotope niche of R. rattus tended to change seasonally and differed between natural forests and anthropogenic habitats, indicating plasticity in feeding niches. In co-occurrence, R. rattus and Rattus norvegicus partitioned feeding niches. Isotopic mismatch of signatures of individual R. rattus and the habitat in which they were captured, indicate frequent dispersal movements for this species between natural forest and anthropogenic habitats.
Conclusions: Since R. rattus are known to transmit a number of zoonoses, potentially affecting communities of endemic small mammals, as well as humans, these movements presumably increase transmission potential. Our results suggest that due to their generalist diet and potential movement between natural forest and anthropogenic habitats, Rattus spp. might affect native forest-dependent Malagasy rodents as competitors, predators, and disease vectors. The combination of these effects helps explain the invasion success of Rattus spp. and the detrimental effects of this genus on the endemic Malagasy rodent fauna.
Bumps in river profiles
(2017)
The analysis of longitudinal river profiles is an important tool for studying landscape evolution. However, characterizing river profiles based on digital elevation models (DEMs) suffers from errors and artifacts that particularly prevail along valley bottoms. The aim of this study is to characterize uncertainties that arise from the analysis of river profiles derived from different, near-globally available DEMs. We devised new algorithms quantile carving and the CRS algorithm - that rely on quantile regression to enable hydrological correction and the uncertainty quantification of river profiles. We find that globally available DEMs commonly overestimate river elevations in steep topography. The distributions of elevation errors become increasingly wider and right skewed if adjacent hillslope gradients are steep. Our analysis indicates that the AW3D DEM has the highest precision and lowest bias for the analysis of river profiles in mountainous topography. The new 12m resolution TanDEM-X DEM has a very low precision, most likely due to the combined effect of steep valley walls and the presence of water surfaces in valley bottoms. Compared to the conventional approaches of carving and filling, we find that our new approach is able to reduce the elevation bias and errors in longitudinal river profiles.
Mosses are a major component of the arctic vegetation, particularly in wetlands. We present C / N atomic ratio, delta C-13 and delta N-15 data of 400 brown-moss samples belonging to 10 species that were collected along hydrological gradients within polygonal mires located on the southern Taymyr Peninsula and the Lena River delta in northern Siberia. Additionally, n-alkane patterns of six of these species (16 samples) were investigated. The aim of the study is to see whether the inter-and intraspecific differences in C / N, isotopic compositions and n-alkanes are indicative of habitat, particularly with respect to water level. Overall, we find high variability in all investigated parameters for two different moisture-related groups of moss species. The C / N ratios range between 11 and 53 (median: 32) and show large variations at the intraspecific level. However, species preferring a dry habitat (xero-mesophilic mosses) show higher C / N ratios than those preferring a wet habitat (meso-hygrophilic mosses). The delta C-13 values range between 37.0 and 22.5% (median D 27.8 %). The delta N-15 values range between 6.6 and C 1.7%(median D 2.2 %). We find differences in delta C-13 and delta N-15 compositions between both habitat types. For some species of the meso-hygrophilic group, we suggest that a relationship between the individ-ual habitat water level and isotopic composition can be inferred as a function of microbial symbiosis. The n-alkane distribution also shows differences primarily between xeromesophilic and meso-hygrophilic mosses, i. e. having a dominance of n-alkanes with long (n-C29, n-C31 /and intermediate (n-C25 /chain lengths, respectively. Overall, our results reveal that C / N ratios, isotopic signals and n-alkanes of studied brown-moss taxa from polygonal wetlands are characteristic of their habitat.
The connection between the macroscopic description of collective chaos and the underlying microscopic dynamics is thoroughly analysed in mean-field models of one-dimensional oscillators. We investigate to what extent infinitesimal perturbations of the microscopic configurations can provide information also on the stability of the corresponding macroscopic phase. In ensembles of identical one-dimensional dynamical units, it is possible to represent the microscopic configurations so as to make transparent their connection with the macroscopic world. As a result, we find evidence of an intermediate, mesoscopic, range of distances, over which the instability is neither controlled by the microscopic equations nor by the macroscopic ones. We examine a whole series of indicators, ranging from the usual microscopic Lyapunov exponents, to the collective ones, including finite-amplitude exponents. A system of pulse-coupled oscillators is also briefly reviewed as an example of non-identical phase oscillators where collective chaos spontaneously emerges.
The performance of hybridization capture combined with next-generation sequencing (NGS) has seen limited investigation with samples from hot and arid regions until now. We applied hybridization capture and shotgun sequencing to recover DNA sequences from bone specimens of ancient-domestic dromedary (Camelus dromedarius) and its extinct ancestor, the wild dromedary from Jordan, Syria, Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula, respectively. Our results show that hybridization capture increased the percentage of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) recovery by an average 187-fold and in some cases yielded virtually complete mitochondrial (mt) genomes at multifold coverage in a single capture experiment. Furthermore, we tested the effect of hybridization temperature and time by using a touchdown approach on a limited number of samples. We observed no significant difference in the number of unique dromedary mtDNA reads retrieved with the standard capture compared to the touchdown method. In total, we obtained 14 partial mitochondrial genomes from ancient-domestic dromedaries with 17-95% length coverage and 1.27-47.1-fold read depths for the covered regions. Using whole-genome shotgun sequencing, we successfully recovered endogenous dromedary nuclear DNA (nuDNA) from domestic and wild dromedary specimens with 1-1.06-fold read depths for covered regions. Our results highlight that despite recent methodological advances, obtaining ancient DNA (aDNA) from specimens recovered from hot, arid environments is still problematic. Hybridization protocols require specific optimization, and samples at the limit of DNA preservation need multiple replications of DNA extraction and hybridization capture as has been shown previously for Middle Pleistocene specimens.
The isotopic composition of water in ice sheets is extensively used to infer past climate changes. In low-accumulation regions their interpretation is, however, challenged by poorly constrained effects that may influence the initial isotope signal during and after deposition of the snow. This is reflected in snow-pit isotope data from Kohnen Station, Antarctica, which exhibit a seasonal cycle but also strong interannual variations that contradict local temperature observations. These inconsistencies persist even after averaging many profiles and are thus not explained by local stratigraphic noise. Previous studies have suggested that post-depositional processes may significantly influence the isotopic composition of East Antarctic firn. Here, we investigate the importance of post-depositional processes within the open-porous firn (greater than or similar to 10 cm depth) at Kohnen Station by separating spatial from temporal variability. To this end, we analyse 22 isotope profiles obtained from two snow trenches and examine the temporal isotope modifications by comparing the new data with published trench data extracted 2 years earlier. The initial isotope profiles undergo changes over time due to downward advection, firn diffusion and densification in magnitudes consistent with independent estimates. Beyond that, we find further modifications of the original isotope record to be unlikely or small in magnitude (<< 1 parts per thousand RMSD). These results show that the discrepancy between local temperatures and isotopes most likely originates from spatially coherent processes prior to or during deposition, such as precipitation intermittency or systematic isotope modifications acting on drifting or loose surface snow.
Costs of sea dikes
(2017)
Failure to consider the costs of adaptation strategies can be seen by decision makers as a barrier to implementing coastal protection measures. In order to validate adaptation strategies to sea-level rise in the form of coastal protection, a consistent and repeatable assessment of the costs is necessary. This paper significantly extends current knowledge on cost estimates by developing - and implementing using real coastal dike data - probabilistic functions of dike costs. Data from Canada and the Netherlands are analysed and related to published studies from the US, UK, and Vietnam in order to provide a reproducible estimate of typical sea dike costs and their uncertainty. We plot the costs divided by dike length as a function of height and test four different regression models. Our analysis shows that a linear function without intercept is sufficient to model the costs, i.e. fixed costs and higher-order contributions such as that due to the volume of core fill material are less significant. We also characterise the spread around the regression models which represents an uncertainty stemming from factors beyond dike length and height. Drawing an analogy with project cost overruns, we employ log-normal distributions and calculate that the range between 3x and x/3 contains 95% of the data, where x represents the corresponding regression value. We compare our estimates with previously published unit costs for other countries. We note that the unit costs depend not only on the country and land use (urban/non-urban) of the sites where the dikes are being constructed but also on characteristics included in the costs, e.g. property acquisition, utility relocation, and project management. This paper gives decision makers an order of magnitude on the protection costs, which can help to remove potential barriers to develop-ing adaptation strategies. Although the focus of this research is sea dikes, our approach is applicable and transferable to other adaptation measures.