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In probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis, epistemic uncertainties are commonly treated within a logic-tree framework in which the branch weights express the degree of belief of an expert in a set of models. For the calculation of the distribution of hazard curves, these branch weights represent subjective probabilities. A major challenge for experts is to provide logically consistent weight estimates (in the sense of Kolmogorovs axioms), to be aware of the multitude of heuristics, and to minimize the biases which affect human judgment under uncertainty. We introduce a platform-independent, interactive program enabling us to quantify, elicit, and transfer expert knowledge into a set of subjective probabilities by applying experimental design theory, following the approach of Curtis and Wood (2004). Instead of determining the set of probabilities for all models in a single step, the computer-driven elicitation process is performed as a sequence of evaluations of relative weights for small subsets of models. From these, the probabilities for the whole model set are determined as a solution of an optimization problem. The result of this process is a set of logically consistent probabilities together with a measure of confidence determined from the amount of conflicting information which is provided by the expert during the relative weighting process. We experiment with different scenarios simulating likely expert behaviors in the context of knowledge elicitation and show the impact this has on the results. The overall aim is to provide a smart elicitation technique, and our findings serve as a guide for practical applications.
In this paper a change-point detection method is proposed by extending the singular spectrum transformation (SST) developed as one of the capabilities of singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The method uncovers change points related with trends and periodicities. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated by analysing simple model time series including linear functions and sine functions as well as real world data (precipitation data in Kenya). A statistical test of the results is proposed based on a Monte Carlo simulation with surrogate methods. As a result, the successful estimation of change points as inherent properties in the representative time series of both trend and harmonics is shown. With regards to the application, we find change points in the precipitation data of Kenyan towns (Nakuru, Naivasha, Narok, and Kisumu) which coincide with the variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) suggesting its impact of extreme climate in East Africa.
Bacteriophage P22 recognizes O-antigen polysaccharides of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica (S.) with its tailspike protein (TSP). In the serovars S. Typhimurium, S. Enteritidis, and S. Paratyphi A, the tetrasaccharide repeat units of the respective O-antigens consist of an identical main chain trisaccharide but different 3,6-dideoxyhexose substituents. Here, the epimers abequose, tyvelose and paratose determine the specific serotype. P22 TSP recognizes O-antigen octasaccharides in an extended binding site with a single 3,6-dideoxyhexose binding pocket. We have isolated S. Paratyphi A octasaccharides which were not available previously and determined the crystal structure of their complex with P22 TSP. We discuss our data together with crystal structures of complexes with S. Typhimurium and S. Enteritidis octasaccharides determined earlier. Isothermal titration calorimetry showed that S. Paratyphi A octasaccharide binds P22 TSP less tightly, with a difference in binding free energy of similar to 7 kJ mol(-1) at 20 degrees C compared with S. Typhimurium and S. Enteritidis octasaccharides. Individual protein-carbohydrate contacts were probed by amino acid replacements showing that the dideoxyhexose pocket contributes to binding of all three serotypes. However, S. Paratyphi A octasaccharides bind in a conformation with an energetically unfavorable phi/epsilon glycosidic bond angle combination. In contrast, octasaccharides from the other serotypes bind as solution-like conformers. Two water molecules are conserved in all P22 TSP complexes with octasaccharides of different serotypes. They line the dideoxyhexose binding pocket and force the S. Paratyphi A octasaccharides to bind as nonsolution conformers. This emphasizes the role of solvent as part of carbohydrate binding sites.
This bibliographical essay seeks to evaluate the impact that the historiographical trend known as Atlantic history, which emerged in the Anglo-Saxon academia, has had on the Spanish-American one. It also considers the criticisms and reticence that it has triggered. The analysis focuses on the applicability and relevance as an analytical tool for the Spanish case of the concept of Atlantic revolutions. It also wants to assess the benefits that geographically broad approaches -even beyond the Atlantic- present to nineteenth-century Spanish historiography.
An anionic microporous polymer network prepared by the polymerization of weakly coordinating anions
(2013)
Although ring faults are present at many ancient, deeply eroded volcanoes, they have been detected at only very few modern volcanic centers. At the so far little studied Tendurek volcano in eastern Turkey, we generated an ascending and a descending InSAR time series of its surface displacement field for the period from 2003 to 2010. We detected a large (similar to 105km(2)) region that underwent subsidence at the rate of similar to 1cm/yr during this period. Source modeling results show that the observed signal fits best to simulations of a near-horizontal contracting sill located at around 4.5km below the volcano summit. Intriguingly, the residual displacement velocity field contains a steep gradient that systematically follows a system of arcuate fractures visible on the volcano’s midflanks. RapidEye satellite optical images show that this fracture system has deflected Holocene lava flows, thus indicating its presence for at least several millennia. We interpret the arcuate fracture system as the surface expression of an inherited ring fault that has been slowly reactivated during the detected recent subsidence. These results show that volcano ring faults may not only slip rapidly during eruptive or intrusive phases, but also slowly during dormant phases.
Agricultural soils have a high potential for sequestration of atmospheric carbon due to their volume and several promising management options. However, there is a remarkable lack of information about the status quo of organic carbon in agricultural soils. In this study a comprehensive data set of 384 cropland soils and 333 grassland soils within the state of Bavaria in southeast Germany was analyzed in order to provide representative information on total amount, regional distribution and driving parameters of soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (N) in agricultural soils of central Europe. The results showed that grassland soils stored higher amounts of SOC (11.8 kg m(-2)) and N (0.92 kg m(-2)) than cropland soils (9.0 and 0.66 kg m(-2), respectively) due to moisture-induced accumulation of soil organic matter (SOM) in B horizons. Surprisingly, no distinct differences were found for the A horizons since tillage led to a relocation of SOM with depth in cropland soils. Statistical analyses of driving factors for SOM storage revealed soil moisture, represented by the topographic wetness index (TWI), as the most important parameter for both cropland and grassland soils. Climate effects (mean annual temperature and precipitation) were of minor importance in agricultural soils because management options counteracted them to a certain extent, particularly in cropland soils. The distribution of SOC and N stocks within Bavaria based on agricultural regions confirmed the importance of soil moisture since the highest cropland SOC and N stocks were found for tertiary hills and loess regions, which exhibited large areas with potentially high soil moisture content in extant floodplains. Grassland soils showed the highest accumulation of SOC and N in the Alps and Pre-Alps as a result of low temperatures, high amounts of precipitation and high soil moisture content in areas of glacial denudation. Soil class was identified as a further driving parameter for SOC and N storage in cropland soils. In total, cropland and grassland soils in Bavaria store 242 and 134 Mt SOC as well as 19 and 12 Mt N down to a soil depth of 1 m or the parent material, respectively.
The occurrence of neritic microbial carbonates is often related to ecological refuges, where grazers and other competitors are reduced by environmental conditions, or to post-extinction events (e.g. in the Late Devonian, Early Triassic). Here, we present evidence for Middle Jurassic (Bajocian) microbial mounds formed in the normal marine, shallow neritic setting of an inner, ramp system from the High Atlas of Morocco. The microbial mounds are embedded in cross-bedded oolitic facies. Individual mounds show low relief domal geometries (up to 3 m high and 4.5 m across), but occasionally a second generation of mounds exhibits tabular geometries (<1 m high). The domes are circular in plan view and have intact tops, lacking evidence of current influence on mound preferred growth direction or distribution patterns, or truncation. The mound fades consists almost entirely of non-laminated, micritic thrombolites with branching morphologies and fine-grained, clotted and peloidal fabrics. Normal marine biota are present but infrequent. Several lines of evidence document that microbial mound growth alternates with time intervals of active ooid shoal deposition. This notion is of general significance when compared with modern Bahamian microbialites that co-exist with active sub-aquatic dunes. Furthermore, the lack of detailed studies of Middle Jurassic, normal marine shallow neritic microbial mounds adds a strong motivation for the present study. Specifically, Bajocian mounds formed on a firmground substratum during transgressive phases under condensed sedimentation. Furthermore, a transient increase in nutrient supply in the prevailing mesotrophic setting, as suggested by the heterotrophic-dominated biota, may have controlled microbial mound stages.
The standard charging process for polymer ferroelectrets, e. g., from polypropylene foams or layered film systems involves the application of high DC fields either to metal electrodes or via a corona discharge. In this often-used process, the DC field triggers the internal breakdown and limits the final charge densities inside the ferroelectret cavities and, thus, the final polarization. Here, an AC + DC charging procedure is proposed and demonstrated in which a high-voltage high-frequency (HV-HF) wave train is applied together with a DC poling voltage. Thus, the internal dielectric-barrier discharges in the ferroelectret cavities are induced by the HV-HF wave train, while the final charge and polarization level is controlled separately through the applied DC voltage. In the new process, the frequency and the amplitude of the HV-HF wave train must be kept within critical boundaries that are closely related to the characteristics of the respective ferroelectrets. The charging method has been tested and investigated on a fluoropolymer-film system with a single well-defined cylindrical cavity. It is found that the internal electrical polarization of the cavity can be easily controlled and increases linearly with the applied DC voltage up to the breakdown voltage of the cavity. In the standard charging method, however, the DC voltage would have to be chosen above the respective breakdown voltage. With the new method, control of the HV-HF wave-train duration prevents a plasma-induced deterioration of the polymer surfaces inside the cavities. It is observed that the frequency of the HV-HF wave train during ferroelectret charging and the temperature applied during poling of ferroelectrics serve an analogous purpose. The analogy and the similarities between the proposed ferroelectret charging method and the poling of ferroelectric materials or dipole electrets at elevated temperatures with subsequent cooling under field are discussed.
This study presents results from a cross-modal priming experiment investigating inflected verb forms of German. A group of late learners of German with Russian as their native language (L1) was compared to a control group of German L1 speakers. The experiment showed different priming patterns for the two participant groups. The L1 German data yielded a stem-priming effect for inflected forms involving regular affixation and a partial priming effect for irregular forms irrespective of stem allomorphy. By contrast, the data from the late bilinguals showed reduced priming effects for both regular and irregular forms. We argue that late learners rely more on lexically stored inflected word forms during word recognition and less on morphological parsing than native speakers.
This study presents results from a cross-modal priming experiment investigating inflected verb forms of German. A group of late learners of German with Russian as their native language (L1) was compared to a control group of German L1 speakers. The experiment showed different priming patterns for the two participant groups. The L1 German data yielded a stem-priming effect for inflected forms involving regular affixation and a partial priming effect for irregular forms irrespective of stem allomorphy. By contrast, the data from the late bilinguals showed reduced priming effects for both regular and irregular forms. We argue that late learners rely more on lexically stored inflected word forms during word recognition and less on morphological parsing than native speakers.
Derivatization of fullerene (C60) with branched aliphatic chains softens C60-based materials and enables the formation of thermotropic liquid crystals and room temperature nonvolatile liquids. This work demonstrates that by carefully tuning parameters such as type, number and substituent position of the branched chains, liquid crystalline C60 materials with mesophase temperatures suited for photovoltaic cell fabrication and room temperature nonvolatile liquid fullerenes with tunable viscosity can be obtained. In particular, compound 1, with branched chains, exhibits a smectic liquid crystalline phase extending from 84°C to room temperature. Analysis of bulk heterojunction (BHJ) organic solar cells with a ca. 100 nm active layer of compound 1 and poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) as an electron acceptor and an electron donor, respectively, reveals an improved performance (power conversion efficiency, PCE: 1.6 ñ 0.1%) in comparison with another compound, 10 (PCE: 0.5 ñ 0.1%). The latter, in contrast to 1, carries linear aliphatic chains and thus forms a highly ordered solid lamellar phase at room temperature. The solar cell performance of 1 blended with P3HT approaches that of PCBM/P3HT for the same active layer thickness. This indicates that C60 derivatives bearing branched tails are a promising class of electron acceptors in soft (flexible) photovoltaic devices.
Derivatization of fullerene (C60) with branched aliphatic chains softens C60-based materials and enables the formation of thermotropic liquid crystals and room temperature nonvolatile liquids. This work demonstrates that by carefully tuning parameters such as type, number and substituent position of the branched chains, liquid crystalline C60 materials with mesophase temperatures suited for photovoltaic cell fabrication and room temperature nonvolatile liquid fullerenes with tunable viscosity can be obtained. In particular, compound 1, with branched chains, exhibits a smectic liquid crystalline phase extending from 84 °C to room temperature. Analysis of bulk heterojunction (BHJ) organic solar cells with a ca. 100 nm active layer of compound 1 and poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) as an electron acceptor and an electron donor, respectively, reveals an improved performance (power conversion efficiency, PCE: 1.6 ± 0.1%) in comparison with another compound, 10 (PCE: 0.5 ± 0.1%). The latter, in contrast to 1, carries linear aliphatic chains and thus forms a highly ordered solid lamellar phase at room temperature. The solar cell performance of 1 blended with P3HT approaches that of PCBM/P3HT for the same active layer thickness. This indicates that C60 derivatives bearing branched tails are a promising class of electron acceptors in soft (flexible) photovoltaic devices.
Derivatization of fullerene (C-60) with branched aliphatic chains softens C-60-based materials and enables the formation of thermotropic liquid crystals and room temperature nonvolatile liquids. This work demonstrates that by carefully tuning parameters such as type, number and substituent position of the branched chains, liquid crystalline C-60 materials with mesophase temperatures suited for photovoltaic cell fabrication and room temperature nonvolatile liquid fullerenes with tunable viscosity can be obtained. In particular, compound 1, with branched chains, exhibits a smectic liquid crystalline phase extending from 84 degrees C to room temperature. Analysis of bulk heterojunction (BHJ) organic solar cells with a ca. 100 nm active layer of compound 1 and poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) as an electron acceptor and an electron donor, respectively, reveals an improved performance (power conversion efficiency, PCE: 1.6 + 0.1%) in comparison with another compound, 10 (PCE: 0.5 + 0.1%). The latter, in contrast to 1, carries linear aliphatic chains and thus forms a highly ordered solid lamellar phase at room temperature. The solar cell performance of 1 blended with P3HT approaches that of PCBM/P3HT for the same active layer thickness. This indicates that C-60 derivatives bearing branched tails are a promising class of electron acceptors in soft (flexible) photovoltaic devices.
As Albania is accelerating its preparations towards the European Union candidate status, numerous areas of public policy and practices undergo intensive development processes. Regional development policy is a very new area of public policy in Albania, and needs research and development. This study focuses on the process of sustainable development in Albania, by analyzing and comparing the regional development of regions of Tirana, Shkodra and Kukes. The methodology used consists of a literature/desk review; analytical and comparative approach; qualitative interviews; quantitative data collection; analysis. The research is organized in five chapters. First chapter provides an overview of the study framework. The second outlines the theory and scientific framework for sustainable and regional development in relation with geography. The third chapter presents the picture of the regional development in Albania, analyzing the disparities and regional development in the light of EU requirements and NUTS division. Chapter 4 continues by analyzing and comparing the regional development of the regions: Tirana – driver for change, Shkodra – the North in Development and Kukes – the “shrinking” region. Chapter 5 presents the conclusions and recommendations. This research comes to the conclusions that if growth in Albania is to be increased and sustained, a regional development policy needs to be established.
Für die vorliegende Studie »Qualitative Untersuchung zur Akzeptanz des neuen Personalausweises und Erarbeitung von Vorschlägen zur Verbesserung der Usability der Software AusweisApp« arbeitete ein Innovationsteam mit Hilfe der Design Thinking Methode an der Aufgabenstellung »Wie können wir die AusweisApp für Nutzer intuitiv und verständlich gestalten?« Zunächst wurde die Akzeptanz des neuen Personalausweises getestet. Bürger wurden zu ihrem Wissensstand und ihren Erwartungen hinsichtlich des neuen Personalausweises befragt, darüber hinaus zur generellen Nutzung des neuen Personalausweises, der Nutzung der Online-Ausweisfunktion sowie der Usability der AusweisApp. Weiterhin wurden Nutzer bei der Verwendung der aktuellen AusweisApp beobachtet und anschließend befragt. Dies erlaubte einen tiefen Einblick in ihre Bedürfnisse. Die Ergebnisse aus der qualitativen Untersuchung wurden verwendet, um Verbesserungsvorschläge für die AusweisApp zu entwickeln, die den Bedürfnissen der Bürger entsprechen. Die Vorschläge zur Optimierung der AusweisApp wurden prototypisch umgesetzt und mit potentiellen Nutzern getestet. Die Tests haben gezeigt, dass die entwickelten Neuerungen den Bürgern den Zugang zur Nutzung der Online-Ausweisfunktion deutlich vereinfachen. Im Ergebnis konnte festgestellt werden, dass der Akzeptanzgrad des neuen Personalausweises stark divergiert. Die Einstellung der Befragten reichte von Skepsis bis hin zu Befürwortung. Der neue Personalausweis ist ein Thema, das den Bürger polarisiert. Im Rahmen der Nutzertests konnten zahlreiche Verbesserungspotenziale des bestehenden Service Designs sowohl rund um den neuen Personalausweis, als auch im Zusammenhang mit der verwendeten Software aufgedeckt werden. Während der Nutzertests, die sich an die Ideen- und Prototypenphase anschlossen, konnte das Innovtionsteam seine Vorschläge iterieren und auch verifizieren. Die ausgearbeiteten Vorschläge beziehen sich auf die AusweisApp. Die neuen Funktionen umfassen im Wesentlichen: · den direkten Zugang zu den Diensteanbietern, · umfangreiche Hilfestellungen (Tooltips, FAQ, Wizard, Video), · eine Verlaufsfunktion, · einen Beispieldienst, der die Online-Ausweisfunktion erfahrbar macht. Insbesondere gilt es, den Nutzern mit der neuen Version der AusweisApp Anwendungsfelder für ihren neuen Personalausweis und einen Mehrwert zu bieten. Die Ausarbeitung von weiteren Funktionen der AusweisApp kann dazu beitragen, dass der neue Personalausweis sein volles Potenzial entfalten kann.