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As the recent permafrost thawing of northern Asia proceeds due to anthropogenic climate change, precise and detailed palaeoecological records from past warm periods are essential to anticipate the extent of future permafrost variations. Here, based on the modern relationship between permafrost and vegetation (represented by pollen assemblages), we trained a Random Forest model using pollen and permafrost data and verified its reliability to reconstruct the history of permafrost in northern Asia during the Holocene. An early Holocene (12-8 cal ka BP) strong thawing trend, a middle-to-late Holocene (8-2 cal ka BP) relatively slow thawing trend, and a late Holocene freezing trend of permafrost in northern Asia are consistent with climatic proxies such as summer solar radiation and Northern Hemisphere temperature. The extensive distribution of permafrost in northern Asia inhibited the spread of evergreen coniferous trees during the early Holocene warming and might have decelerated the enhancement of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) by altering hydrological processes and albedo. Based on these findings, we suggest that studies of the EASM should consider more the state of permafrost and vegetation in northern Asia, which are often overlooked and may have a profound impact on climate change in this region.
Pollen-based biome reconstruction on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the past 15,000 years
(2022)
Reconstruction of past vegetation change is critical for better understanding the potential impact of future global change on the fragile alpine ecosystems of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). In this paper, pollen assemblages comprising 58 records from the QTP, spanning the past 15 kyrs, were collected to reconstruct biome compositions using a standard approach. Six forest biomes were identified mainly on the southeastern plateau, exhibiting a pattern of gradual expansion along the eastern margin during early to mid-Holocene times. The alpine meadow biome was separately identified based on an updated scheme, and showed notable westward expansions towards lower latitudes and higher altitudes during early Holocene times. Consistent patterns of migration could also be identified for the alpine steppe biome, which moved eastward during the late Holocene after 4 ka. As the dominant biome type, temperate steppe was distributed widely over the QTP with minor migration patterns, except for a progressive expansion to lower altitudes in the late Holocene times. The desert biome was inferred mainly as covering the northwestern plateau and the Qaidam Basin, in relatively restricted areas. The spatial distribution of the reconstructed biomes represent the large-scale vegetation gradient on the QTP. Monsoonal precipitation expressed predominant controls on the development of alpine ecosystems, while the variations in desert vegetation responded to regional moisture brought by the mid-latitude Westerlies. Temperature changes played relatively minor roles in the variations of alpine vegetation, but exerted more significant impacts on the forest biomes.
The terrestrial ecosystem in the Yellow River Source Area (YRSA) is sensitive to climate change and human impacts, although past vegetation change and the degree of human disturbance are still largely unknown. A 170-cm-long sediment core covering the last 7,400 years was collected from Lake Xingxinghai (XXH) in the YRSA. Pollen, together with a series of other environmental proxies (including grain size, total organic carbon (TOC) and carbonate content), were analysed to explore past vegetation and environmental changes for the YRSA. Dominant and common pollen components-Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae and Asteraceae-are stable throughout the last 7,400 years. Slight vegetation change is inferred from an increasing trend of Cyperaceae and decreasing trend of Poaceae, suggesting that alpine steppe was replaced by alpine meadow at ca. 3.5 ka cal bp. The vegetation transformation indicates a generally wetter climate during the middle and late Holocene, which is supported by increased amounts of TOC and Pediastrum (representing high water-level) and is consistent with previous past climate records from the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Our results find no evidence of human impact on the regional vegetation surrounding XXH, hence we conclude the vegetation change likely reflects the regional climate signal.
Alpine ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau are being threatened by ongoing climate warming and intensified human activities. Ecological time-series obtained from sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) are essential for understanding past ecosystem and biodiversity dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau and their responses to climate change at a high taxonomic resolution. Hitherto only few but promising studies have been published on this topic. The potential and limitations of using sedaDNA on the Tibetan Plateau are not fully understood. Here, we (i) provide updated knowledge of and a brief introduction to the suitable archives, region-specific taphonomy, state-of-the-art methodologies, and research questions of sedaDNA on the Tibetan Plateau; (ii) review published and ongoing sedaDNA studies from the Tibetan Plateau; and (iii) give some recommendations for future sedaDNA study designs. Based on the current knowledge of taphonomy, we infer that deep glacial lakes with freshwater and high clay sediment input, such as those from the southern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau, may have a high potential for sedaDNA studies. Metabarcoding (for microorganisms and plants), metagenomics (for ecosystems), and hybridization capture (for prehistoric humans) are three primary sedaDNA approaches which have been successfully applied on the Tibetan Plateau, but their power is still limited by several technical issues, such as PCR bias and incompleteness of taxonomic reference databases. Setting up high-quality and open-access regional taxonomic reference databases for the Tibetan Plateau should be given priority in the future. To conclude, the archival, taphonomic, and methodological conditions of the Tibetan Plateau are favorable for performing sedaDNA studies. More research should be encouraged to address questions about long-term ecological dynamics at ecosystem scale and to bring the paleoecology of the Tibetan Plateau into a new era.
How fast the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forest biome tracks strongly warming climates is largely unknown. Regional studies reveal lags between decades and millennia. Here we report a conundrum: Deglacial forest expansion in the NH extra-tropics occurs approximately 4000 years earlier in a transient MPI-ESM1.2 simulation than shown by pollen-based biome reconstructions. Shortcomings in the model and the reconstructions could both contribute to this mismatch, leaving the underlying causes unresolved. The simulated vegetation responds within decades to simulated climate changes, which agree with pollen-independent reconstructions. Thus, we can exclude climate biases as main driver for differences. Instead, the mismatch points at a multi-millennial disequilibrium of the NH forest biome to the climate signal. Therefore, the evaluation of time-slice simulations in strongly changing climates with pollen records should be critically reassessed. Our results imply that NH forests may be responding much slower to ongoing climate changes than Earth System Models predict. <br /> Deglacial forest expansion in the Northern Hemisphere poses a conundrum: Model results agree with the climate signal but are several millennia ahead of reconstructed forest dynamics. The underlying causes remain unsolved.
Future precipitation levels remain uncertain because climate models have struggled to reproduce observed variations in temperature-precipitation correlations. Our analyses of Holocene proxy-based temperature-precipitation correlations and hydrological sensitivities from 2,237 Northern Hemisphere extratropical pollen records reveal a significant latitudinal dependence and temporal variations among the early, middle, and late Holocene. These proxy-based variations are largely consistent with patterns obtained from transient climate simulations (TraCE21k). While high latitudes and subtropical monsoon areas show mainly stable positive correlations throughout the Holocene, the mid-latitude pattern is temporally and spatially more variable. In particular, we identified a reversal from positive to negative temperature-precipitation correlations in the eastern North American and European mid-latitudes from the early to mid-Holocene that mainly related to slowed down westerlies and a switch to moisture-limited convection under a warm climate. Our palaeoevidence of past temperature-precipitation correlation shifts identifies those regions where simulating past and future precipitation levels might be particularly challenging.
The nature of the interaction between prehistoric humans and their environment, especially the vegetation, has long been of interest. The Qinghai Lake Basin in North China is well-suited to exploring the interactions between prehistoric humans and vegetation in the Tibetan Plateau, because of the comparatively dense distribution of archaeological sites and the ecologically fragile environment. Previous pollen studies of Qinghai Lake have enabled a detailed reconstruction of the regional vegetation, but they have provided relatively little information on vegetation change within the Qinghai Lake watershed. To address the issue we conducted a pollen-based vegetation reconstruction for an archaeological site (YWY), located on the southern shore of Qinghai Lake. We used high temporal-resolution pollen records from the YWY site and from Qinghai Lake, spanning the interval since the last deglaciation (15.3 kyr BP to the present) to quantitatively reconstruct changes in the local and regional vegetation using Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm models. The results show that, since the late glacial, spruce forest grew at high altitudes in the surrounding mountains, while the lakeshore environment was occupied mainly by shrub-steppe. From the lateglacial to the middle Holocene, coniferous woodland began to expand downslope and reached the YWY site at 7.1 kyr BP. The living environment of the local small groups of Paleolithic-Epipaleolithic humans (during 15.3-13.1 kyr BP and 9-6.4 kyr BP) changed from shrub-steppe to coniferous forest-steppe. The pollen record shows no evidence of pronounced changes in the vegetation community corresponding to human activity. However, based on a comparison of the local and regional vegetation reconstructions, low values of biodiversity and a significant increase in two indicators of vegetation degradation, Chenopodiaceae and Rosaceae, suggest that prehistoric hunters-gatherers likely disturbed the local vegetation during 9.0-6.4 kyr BP. Our findings are a preliminary attempt to study human-environment interactions at Paleolithic-Epipaleolithic sites in the region, and they contribute to ongoing environmental archaeology research in the Tibetan Plateau.
We present a chronology framework named LegacyAge 1.0 containing harmonized chronologies for 2831 pollen records (downloaded from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database and the supplementary Asian datasets) together with their age control points and metadata in machine-readable data formats.
All chronologies use the Bayesian framework implemented in Bacon version 2.5.3. Optimal parameter settings of priors (accumulation.shape, memory.strength, memory.mean, accumulation.rate, and thickness) were identified based on information in the original publication or iteratively after preliminary model inspection.
The most common control points for the chronologies are radiocarbon dates (86.1 %), calibrated by the latest calibration curves (IntCal20 and SHCal20 for the terrestrial radiocarbon dates in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere and Marine20 for marine materials).
The original publications were consulted when dealing with outliers and inconsistencies. Several major challenges when setting up the chronologies included the waterline issue (18.8% of records), reservoir effect (4.9 %), and sediment deposition discontinuity (4.4 %).
Finally, we numerically compare the LegacyAge 1.0 chronologies to those published in the original publications and show that the reliability of the chronologies of 95.4% of records could be improved according to our assessment.
Our chronology framework and revised chronologies provide the opportunity to make use of the ages and age uncertainties in synthesis studies of, for example, pollen-based vegetation and climate change.
The LegacyAge 1.0 dataset, including metadata, datings, harmonized chronologies, and R code used, is openaccess and available at PANGAEA (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.933132; Li et al., 2021) and Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5815192; Li et al., 2022), respectively.
LegacyPollen 1.0
(2022)
Here we describe the LegacyPollen 1.0, a dataset of 2831 fossil pollen records with metadata, a harmonized taxonomy, and standardized chronologies.
A total of 1032 records originate from North America, 1075 from Europe, 488 from Asia, 150 from Latin America, 54 from Africa, and 32 from the Indo-Pacific.
The pollen data cover the late Quaternary (mostly the Holocene). The original 10 110 pollen taxa names (including variations in the notations) were harmonized to 1002 terrestrial taxa (including Cyperaceae), with woody taxa and major herbaceous taxa harmonized to genus level and other herbaceous taxa to family level.
The dataset is valuable for synthesis studies of, for example, taxa areal changes, vegetation dynamics, human impacts (e.g., deforestation), and climate change at global or continental scales.
The harmonized pollen and metadata as well as the harmonization table are available from PANGAEA (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.929773; Herzschuh et al., 2021). R code for the harmonization is provided at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5910972; Herzschuh et al., 2022) so that datasets at a customized harmonization level can be easily established.
Understanding the history and regional singularities of human impact on vegetation is key to developing strategies for sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, fossil and modern pollen datasets from China are employed to investigate temporal changes in pollen composition, analogue quality, and pollen diversity during the Holocene. Anthropogenic disturbance and vegetation's responses are also assessed. Results reveal that pollen assemblages from non-forest communities fail to provide evidence of human impact for the western part of China (annual precipitation less than 400 mm and/or elevation more than 3000 m.a.s.l.), as inferred from the stable quality of modern analogues, principal components, and diversity of species and communities throughout the Holocene. For the eastern part of China, the proportion of fossil pollen spectra with good modern analogues increases from ca. 50% to ca. 80% during the last 2 millennia, indicating an enhanced intensity of anthropogenic disturbance on vegetation. This disturbance has caused the pollen spectra to become taxonomically less diverse over space (reduced abundances of arboreal taxa and increased abundances of herbaceous taxa), highlighting a reduced south-north differentiation and divergence from past vegetation between regions in the eastern part of China. We recommend that care is taken in eastern China when basing the development of ecosystem management strategies on vegetation changes in the region during the last 2000 years, since humans have significantly disturbed the vegetation during this period.
Pollen records from Siberia are mostly absent in global or Northern Hemisphere synthesis works. Here we present a taxonomically harmonized and temporally standardized pollen dataset that was synthesized using 173 palynological records from Siberia and adjacent areas (northeastern Asia, 42-75 degrees N, 50-180 degrees E). Pollen data were taxonomically harmonized, i.e. the original 437 taxa were assigned to 106 combined pollen taxa. Age-depth models for all records were revised by applying a constant Bayesian age-depth modelling routine. The pollen dataset is available as count data and percentage data in a table format (taxa vs. samples), with age information for each sample. The dataset has relatively few sites covering the last glacial period between 40 and 11.5 ka (calibrated thousands of years before 1950 CE) particularly from the central and western part of the study area. In the Holocene period, the dataset has many sites from most of the area, with the exception of the central part of Siberia. Of the 173 pollen records, 81 % of pollen counts were downloaded from open databases (GPD, EPD, PANGAEA) and 10 % were contributions by the original data gatherers, while a few were digitized from publications. Most of the pollen records originate from peatlands (48 %) and lake sediments (33 %). Most of the records (83 %) have >= 3 dates, allowing the establishment of reliable chronologies. The dataset can be used for various purposes, including pollen data mapping (example maps for Larix at selected time slices are shown) as well as quantitative climate and vegetation reconstructions. The datasets for pollen counts and pollen percentages are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.898616 (Cao et al., 2019a), also including the site information, data source, original publication, dating data, and the plant functional type for each pollen taxa.
Pollen records from Siberia are mostly absent in global or Northern Hemisphere synthesis works. Here we present a taxonomically harmonized and temporally standardized pollen dataset that was synthesized using 173 palynological records from Siberia and adjacent areas (northeastern Asia, 42-75 degrees N, 50-180 degrees E). Pollen data were taxonomically harmonized, i.e. the original 437 taxa were assigned to 106 combined pollen taxa. Age-depth models for all records were revised by applying a constant Bayesian age-depth modelling routine. The pollen dataset is available as count data and percentage data in a table format (taxa vs. samples), with age information for each sample. The dataset has relatively few sites covering the last glacial period between 40 and 11.5 ka (calibrated thousands of years before 1950 CE) particularly from the central and western part of the study area. In the Holocene period, the dataset has many sites from most of the area, with the exception of the central part of Siberia. Of the 173 pollen records, 81 % of pollen counts were downloaded from open databases (GPD, EPD, PANGAEA) and 10 % were contributions by the original data gatherers, while a few were digitized from publications. Most of the pollen records originate from peatlands (48 %) and lake sediments (33 %). Most of the records (83 %) have >= 3 dates, allowing the establishment of reliable chronologies. The dataset can be used for various purposes, including pollen data mapping (example maps for Larix at selected time slices are shown) as well as quantitative climate and vegetation reconstructions. The datasets for pollen counts and pollen percentages are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.898616 (Cao et al., 2019a), also including the site information, data source, original publication, dating data, and the plant functional type for each pollen taxa.
Proxy-based reconstructions and modeling of Holocene spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for China and Mongolia have hitherto yielded contradictory results indicating that the basic mechanisms behind the East Asian Summer Monsoon and its interaction with the westerly jet stream remain poorly understood. We present quantitative reconstructions of Holocene precipitation derived from 101 fossil pollen records and analyse them with the help of a minimal empirical model. We show that the westerly jet-stream axis shifted gradually southward and became less tilted since the middle Holocene. This was tracked by the summer monsoon rain band resulting in an early-Holocene precipitation maximum over most of western China, a mid-Holocene maximum in north-central and northeastern China, and a late-Holocene maximum in southeastern China. Our results suggest that a correct simulation of the orientation and position of the westerly jet stream is crucial to the reliable prediction of precipitation patterns in China and Mongolia.
Pollen-based quantitative land-cover reconstruction for northern Asia covering the last 40 ka cal BP
(2019)
We collected the available relative pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) for 27 major pollen taxa from Eurasia and applied them to estimate plant abundances during the last 40 ka cal BP (calibrated thousand years before present) using pollen counts from 203 fossil pollen records in northern Asia (north of 40 degrees N). These pollen records were organized into 42 site groups and regional mean plant abundances calculated using the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites) model. Time-series clustering, constrained hierarchical clustering, and detrended canonical correspondence analysis were performed to investigate the regional pattern, time, and strength of vegetation changes, respectively. Reconstructed regional plant functional type (PFT) components for each site group are generally consistent with modern vegetation in that vegetation changes within the regions are characterized by minor changes in the abundance of PFTs rather than by an increase in new PFTs, particularly during the Holocene. We argue that pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant abundances should be a more reliable reflection of the vegetation as pollen may overestimate the turnover, particularly when a high pollen producer invades areas dominated by low pollen producers. Comparisons with vegetation-independent climate records show that climate change is the primary factor driving land-cover changes at broad spatial and temporal scales. Vegetation changes in certain regions or periods, however, could not be explained by direct climate change, e.g. inland Siberia, where a sharp increase in evergreen conifer tree abundance occurred at ca. 7-8 ka cal BP despite an unchanging climate, potentially reflecting their response to complex climate-permafrost-fire-vegetation interactions and thus a possible long-term lagged climate response.
Ongoing and past biome transitions are generally assigned to climate and atmospheric changes (e.g. temperature, precipitation, CO2), but the major regional factors or factor combinations that drive vegetation change often remain unknown. Modelling studies applying ensemble runs can help to partition the effects of the different drivers. Such studies require careful validation with observational data. In this study, fossil pollen records from 741 sites in Europe, 728 sites in North America, and 418 sites in Asia (extracted from terrestrial archives including lake sediments) are used to reconstruct biomes at selected time slices between 40 cal ka BP (calibrated thousand years before present) and today. These results are used to validate Northern Hemisphere biome distributions (>30 degrees N) simulated by the biome model BIOME4 that has been forced with climate data simulated by a General Circulation model. Quantitative comparisons between pollen- and model-based results show a generally good fit at a broad spatial scale. Mismatches occur in central-arid Asia with a broader extent of grassland throughout the last 40 ka (likely due to the over-representation of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae pollen) and in Europe with over-estimation of tundra at 0 cal ka BP (likely due to human impacts to some extent). Sensitivity analysis reveals that broad-scale biome changes follow the global signal of major postglacial temperature change, although the climatic variables vary in their regional and temporal importance. Temperature is the dominant variable in Europe and other rather maritime areas for biome changes between 21 and 14 ka, while precipitation is highly important in the arid inland regions of Asia and North America. The ecophysiological effect of changes in the atmospheric CO2-concentration has the highest impact during this transition than in other intervals. With respect to modern vegetation in the course of global warming, our findings imply that vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere may be strongly limited by effective moisture changes, i.e. the combined effect of temperature and precipitation, particularly in inland areas. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Recent global warming is pronounced in high-latitude regions (e.g. northern Asia), and will cause the vegetation to change. Future vegetation trends (e.g. the "arctic greening") will feed back into atmospheric circulation and the global climate system. Understanding the nature and causes of past vegetation changes is important for predicting the composition and distribution of future vegetation communities. Fossil pollen records from 468 sites in northern and eastern Asia were biomised at selected times between 40 cal ka bp and today. Biomes were also simulated using a climate-driven biome model and results from the two approaches compared in order to help understand the mechanisms behind the observed vegetation changes. The consistent biome results inferred by both approaches reveal that long-term and broad-scale vegetation patterns reflect global- to hemispheric-scale climate changes. Forest biomes increase around the beginning of the late deglaciation, become more widespread during the early and middle Holocene, and decrease in the late Holocene in fringe areas of the Asian Summer Monsoon. At the southern and southwestern margins of the taiga, forest increases in the early Holocene and shows notable species succession, which may have been caused by winter warming at ca. 7 cal ka bp. At the northeastern taiga margin (central Yakutia and northeastern Siberia), shrub expansion during the last deglaciation appears to prevent the permafrost from thawing and hinders the northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species until ca. 7 cal ka bp. The vegetation-climate disequilibrium during the early Holocene in the taiga-tundra transition zone suggests that projected climate warming will not cause a northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species.
A comprehensive understanding of the regional vegetation responses to long-term climate change will help to forecast Earth system dynamics. Based on a new well-dated pollen data set from Kanas Lake and a review on the published pollen records in and around the Altai Mountains, the regional vegetation dynamics and forcing mechanisms are discussed. In the Altai Mountains, the forest optimum occurred during 10-7ka for the upper forest zone and the tree line decline and/or ecological shifts were caused by climatic cooling from around 7ka. In the lower forest zone, the forest reached an optimum in the middle Holocene, and then increased openness of the forest, possibly caused by both climate cooling and human activities, took place in the late Holocene. In the lower basins or plains around the Altai Mountains, the development of protograssland or forest benefited from increasing humidity in the middle to late Holocene. Plain Language Summary In the Altai Mountains and surrounding area of central Asia, the previous studies of the Holocene paleovegetation and paleoclimate studies did not discuss the different ecological limiting factors for the vegetation in high mountains and low-elevation areas due to limited data. With accumulating fossil pollen data and surface pollen data, it is possible to understand better the geomorphological effect on the vegetation and discrepancies of vegetation/forest responses to large-scale climate forcing, and it is also possible to get reliable quantitative reconstructions of climate. Here our new pollen data and review on the published fossil pollen data will help us to look into the past climate change and vertical evolution of vegetation in this important area of the Northern Hemisphere. Based on our study, it can be concluded that the growth of taiga forest in the wetter areas may be promoted under a future warmer climate, while the forest in the relatively dry areas is liable to decline, and the different vegetation dynamics will contribute to future high-resolution coupled vegetation-climate model for Earth system modelling.
The climate conditions during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 were similar to present-day conditions, but whether humidity then exceeded present levels is debated, and the driving mechanisms of palaeoclimate evolution since MIS 3 remain unclear. Here, we use pollen data from Wulagai Lake, Inner Mongolia, to reconstruct vegetation and climate changes since the middle MIS 3. The steppe biome is reconstructed as the first dominant biome and the desert biome as the second, and the results show that the vegetation was steppe over the last 43,800 years. Poaceae, Artemisia, Caryophyllaceae and Humulus were abundant from middle to late MIS 3, indicating humid climate conditions. As drought-tolerant species such as Hippophae, Nitraria and Chenopodiaceae spread during MIS 2, the climate became arid. The Holocene is characterized by the dominance of steppe with mixed coniferous-broadleaved forests in the Greater Hinggan Range, and the desert biome retains high affinity scores, indicating that the climate was semi-arid. The climate from middle to late MIS 3 was wetter than in the Holocene; this shift was related to changes in the Northern Hemisphere's solar insolation and ice volume. The humid conditions during MIS 3 were attributed to strong ice–albedo feedback, which led to evaporation that was less than the precipitation. The enhanced evaporation caused by increased solar insolation and decreased ice volume might have exceeded the precipitation during the Holocene and resulted in low effective humidity in the Wulagai Lake basin.
Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of past climate variables is a standard palaeoclimatic approach. Despite knowing that the spatial extent of the calibration-set affects the reconstruction result, guidance is lacking as to how to determine a suitable spatial extent of the pollen-climate calibration-set. In this study, past mean annual precipitation (P-ann) during the Holocene (since 11.5 cal ka BP) is reconstructed repeatedly for pollen records from Qinghai Lake (36.7 degrees N, 100.5 degrees E; north-east Tibetan Plateau), Gonghai Lake (38.9 degrees N, 112.2 degrees E; north China) and Sihailongwan Lake (42.3 degrees N, 126.6 degrees E; north-east China) using calibration-sets of varying spatial extents extracted from the modern pollen dataset of China and Mongolia (2559 sampling sites and 168 pollen taxa in total). Results indicate that the spatial extent of the calibration-set has a strong impact on model performance, analogue quality and reconstruction diagnostics (absolute value, range, trend, optimum). Generally, these effects are stronger with the modern analogue technique (MAT) than with weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS). With respect to fossil spectra from northern China, the spatial extent of calibration-sets should be restricted to radii between ca. 1000 and 1500 km because small-scale calibration-sets (<800 km radius) will likely fail to include enough spatial variation in the modern pollen assemblages to reflect the temporal range shifts during the Holocene, while too broad a scale calibration-set (>1500 km radius) will include taxa with very different pollen-climate relationships. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.