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Using molecular genetic methods and an ancient DNA approach, we studied population and species succession of rotifers of the genus Brachionus in the Kenyan alkaline-saline crater lake Sonachi since the beginning of the 19th century as well as distribution of Brachionus haplotypes in recent and historic sediments of other lakes of the East African Rift System. The sediment core record of Lake Sonachi displays haplotypes of a distinct evolutionary lineage in all increments. Populations were dominated by a single mitochondrial haplotype for a period of 150 years, and two putatively intraspecific turnovers in dominance occurred. Both changes are concordant with major environmental perturbations documented by a profound visible change in sediment composition of the core. The first change was very abrupt and occurred after the deposition of volcanic ash at the beginning of the 19th century. The second change coincides with a major lake level lowstand during the 1940s. It was preceded by a period of successively declining lake level, in which two other haplotypes appeared in the lake. One of these putatively belongs to another species documented in historical and recent Kenyan lake sediments. The analysis of plankton population dynamics through historical time can reveal patterns of population persistence and turnover in relation to environmental changes.
Changes in species’ distributions are classically projected based on their climate envelopes. For Siberian forests, which have a tremendous significance for vegetation-climate feedbacks, this implies future shifts of each of the forest-forming larch (Larix) species to the north-east. However, in addition to abiotic factors, reliable projections must assess the role of historical biogeography and biotic interactions. Here, we use sedimentary ancient DNA and individual-based modelling to investigate the distribution of larch species and mitochondrial haplotypes through space and time across the treeline ecotone on the southern Taymyr peninsula, which at the same time presents a boundary area of two larch species. We find spatial and temporal patterns, which suggest that forest density is the most influential driver determining the precise distribution of species and mitochondrial haplotypes. This suggests a strong influence of competition on the species’ range shifts. These findings imply possible climate change outcomes that are directly opposed to projections based purely on climate envelopes. Investigations of such fine-scale processes of biodiversity change through time are possible using paleoenvironmental DNA, which is available much more readily than visible fossils and can provide information at a level of resolution that is not reached in classical palaeoecology.
Changes in species' distributions are classically projected based on their climate envelopes. For Siberian forests, which have a tremendous significance for vegetation-climate feedbacks, this implies future shifts of each of the forest-forming larch (Larix) species to the north-east. However, in addition to abiotic factors, reliable projections must assess the role of historical biogeography and biotic interactions. Here, we use sedimentary ancient DNA and individual-based modelling to investigate the distribution of larch species and mitochondrial haplotypes through space and time across the treeline ecotone on the southern Taymyr peninsula, which at the same time presents a boundary area of two larch species. We find spatial and temporal patterns, which suggest that forest density is the most influential driver determining the precise distribution of species and mitochondrial haplotypes. This suggests a strong influence of competition on the species' range shifts. These findings imply possible climate change outcomes that are directly opposed to projections based purely on climate envelopes. Investigations of such fine-scale processes of biodiversity change through time are possible using paleoenvironmental DNA, which is available much more readily than visible fossils and can provide information at a level of resolution that is not reached in classical palaeoecology.